匿光｜Arcana
匿光｜Arcana
5年加密货币交易经验，长期持有OKB BTC，单币A7持有者，meme黑马猎手，区块链上信息搜寻者，对该行业长期看好，未来依旧是普通人最好的翻身机会。
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Someone asked me when this altcoin bull run will come, so I'll give the answer directly. "This altcoin bull market is expected to come early."
The cycle before last: started at the end of 2017, quickly peaked in a short time.
The last cycle before that: started in 2020, peaked in mid-2021.
The last cycle: started in 2023, peaked in April 2024, then in September 2024 and October 2025, each wave weaker than the last.
This cycle: starts in 2026, peaks within a year, then traps another group of people, followed by waves weaker than the last.
Essentially, it's still that information is becoming more and more accessible, causing all market trends to accelerate.
Grayscale has launched new products again, but this time retail investors really can't buy them.
On October 15, Grayscale partnered with Republic to list three crypto funds: DeFi Fund, Decentralized AI Fund, and Data Network Trust.
The $2,500 threshold doesn't sound high, but in the U.S., it's limited to accredited investors only; private placement shares cannot be redeemed, and liquidity is poor.
This is not an ETF, so don't rush into spot just because you see the word "Grayscale."
What’s really worth watching is their stock selection.
The DeFi Fund holds UNI, AAVE, ONDO, ENA, CRV, LDO — all protocols with real business and revenue;
The AI Fund includes NEAR, TAO, RENDER, FIL; the Data Trust only holds DATA.
Institutions are quietly positioning on the left side in these three sectors, betting on the next narrative, not this week's price swings.
Product launch doesn’t mean the fund will go buy spot assets; what matters next is whether the spot trading volume of these component tokens picks up — if volume doesn’t rise, it’s just paper wealth.
Do you currently hold positions in UNI, AAVE, or TAO?
El Salvador's 7,800 coins are bought at a rate of 1 coin per day.
▪️ Currently holding 7,808.37 coins, with a total value of $638 million; at the beginning of the year, 7,517 coins, an increase of 291 coins over 291 days, averaging exactly 1.00 coin per day.
▪️ Increased holdings by 8 coins in the past 7 days, 31 coins in the past 30 days — daily averages of 1.14 and 1.03 respectively, pace unchanged.
▪️ The entire network mines about 450 coins daily (144 blocks × 3.125 coins), so its daily purchase accounts for 0.22% of that.
▪️ With a total value of $638 million, the implied unit price is $81,700.
The disagreement is not about how many coins it bought, but that "breaking through 7,800 coins" looks like a single action, when in fact it is a timeline. This number has only moved forward by one coin per day over the past ten months, with no acceleration in the past 7 or 30 days — it is not more aggressive, just time passing.
To put it another way: the 291 coins accumulated over ten months are still less than two-thirds of the network's daily output (about 450 coins). So this news does not impact the price; it reflects an accounting habit, not buying pressure.
Focus on three things:
① Whether the daily averages for 7 and 30 days remain at 1 coin;
② Whether there is any single purchase of more than 10 coins concentrated at once;
③ The next milestone is 8,000 coins, which at the current pace will take another 192 days.
The U.S. government paid $1.05 trillion in interest to creditors this year. This amount is higher than its entire annual military budget and enough to buy all the stablecoins on the market, with over $700 billion left over.
The figures were released by the Treasury Department on Friday. Net interest expenses for this fiscal year increased by 8% year-over-year, while fiscal spending rose 6% and revenue increased 3% during the same period. Interest payments are leading the way. As revenue grows, interest payments are rising even faster, and the shortfall can only be filled by borrowing more.
What is the most profitable business in the crypto circle?
Today's top five by expenses:
1. $PUMP Expenses 5.79 million, Revenue 2.12 million, Retention rate 37%
2. Papertrade Expenses 5.73 million, Revenue 5.73 million, Retention rate 100%
3. $HYPE Expenses 3.14 million, Revenue 2.42 million, Retention rate 77%
4. Polymarket Expenses 2.94 million, Revenue 0.43 million, Retention rate 15%
5. $UNI Expenses 2.39 million, Revenue 0.28 million, Retention rate 12%
Yesterday Papertrade's 7.33 million surpassed PUMP. Today PUMP's 5.79 million overtook again—only 0.06 million more.
What does this indicate?
PUMP has been stable between 5.65–5.83 million for four days, a steady player.
Papertrade fluctuates +28% one day, −22% the next, a pulse.
Chasing the top spot isn't very meaningful since it changes daily. But you can see which new protocols make the list; those who understand will understand! #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
This round of $ZEC's rise is entirely driven by retail investors. Many retail investors closed their short positions around 1120, and retail selling of shorts actually pushed the price up. Countless retail investors also followed up with long positions near 1120, which further fueled the price increase. The main players did not buy to push the price up at all; it was all retail behavior!
Grayscale has been continuously selling ZEC, and other major players are also offloading. Unless BTC surges violently, the number of retail investors holding high-position coins is gradually increasing, and selling pressure will grow. Since the drop from 1699, the previous highs have never been broken!
Lower highs are proof that the main players are offloading. The main players hold positions at prices between $15 and $40 and have already made huge profits; they are just looking for opportunities to sell and exit!
Unlike retail investors, the main players cannot sell all their ZEC at once. They can only try to keep the price sideways, slightly push it up, and secretly sell off to exit. It generally takes them about 3 years to sell all their chips. The range between 50 and 1500 is the main players' selling zone—a shockingly large range!!
Are there truly centralized exchanges?
Openness, transparency, and inclusiveness might be the core driving forces behind HYPE's counter-trend growth.
After 1011, I elevated HYPE to the level of a top-tier asset allocation. I'm not the only one gradually losing patience with CEX; many people around me have experienced similar changes.
Especially for Chinese-language CEXs, it seems they are falling into an ultimate competition over a fixed market share.
Whether it's debates on X or discussions in various forums, exchanges, market makers, and project teams—anyone involved in the Chinese crypto community—seems hard to avoid various negative evaluations.
When the incremental market is insufficient to support everyone's ambitions, competition gradually shifts from vying for new users to fighting over existing funds, traffic, and influence.
Among the top ten coins by growth, the altcoin I dare to build a position in spot trading is only $PYTH — definitely an underestimated dark horse!
Why am I so confident? Several solid reasons:
1. PythDAO just decided: 100% of product revenue will be used for buybacks. That means buying as much as it earns, with revenue continuously rising, the price will take off accordingly.
2. It is the oracle leader in the SOL ecosystem, and the recent wealth effect on the mainnet has directly crushed Ethereum.
3. Institutions have been genuinely buying with real money recently; ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) has already reached $11 million, performance guaranteed, not just empty talk.
4. The weekly chart makes it clearer: the bottom has been accumulating for quite a long time, now volume is warming up, and the price is starting to climb — this script is almost identical to pepe's pattern before takeoff.
$STRK dropped 99%. The airdrop was once so popular, now it's just as miserable. Dropping 99% basically means it's almost worthless. I don't need to say how many people got trapped.
Then suddenly they said they want to transform into an L1, no longer being Ethereum's little brother, and it surged more than 4 times.
Looking at the weekly chart, 0.618 is around 0.18u, previous high at 0.28u. The long-short ratio is abnormally skewed with more short accounts; with this structure, the probability of going straight down is low.
Most likely it will fluctuate repeatedly within the range, shaking out both longs and shorts first.
If you're trading contracts, take profits quickly and run, don't be ambitious. This coin isn't suitable for big ambitions. Set your take profit and stop loss properly, that's better than anything else.
The Dogecoin ETF is basically completely dead
Bitwise's DOGE spot ETF didn't even last a year after listing, and it is set to stop trading after October 14. The fund size has shrunk to only $720,000, and the entire trading volume in September was just $50,000. With liquidity dried up like this, why keep it open?
Even their own CEO helplessly said he holds Dogecoin, but the traditional ETF investors just won't buy it. To put it bluntly, retail DOGE players aren't going to pay management fees in a regulated structure, and traditional institutional investors don't understand the grassroots MEME coin. A product that pleases neither side can only end in a dismal failure.