$DOGE finally surged today! No more kids crying every day, the position is finally in profit. 1. In the past few days, it was far less strong than $BTC, but today it's finally $DOGE's turn to perform, surging 15% in one day, meme coin elasticity fully stretched. 2. But this is purely an emotion-driven pulse, without the fundamental support like ETH/SOL. 0.0945 is the intraday high and also resistance, close to the psychological round number 0.10; only a breakout will open up space. 3. Funds are speculating in the meme season, which actually confirms the current situation where BTC can't rise anymore. DOGE is the meme leader, with the advantage of recognizability. 4. Most likely to consolidate and digest at a high level next week. Musk is the biggest variable; DOGE's rise and fall depend entirely on his Twitter. No news means a technical pullback; news means a second explosion. Trading view: play small positions above 0.085, stop loss at 0.081. Chase to 0.10 if it breaks 0.0945. Keep DOGE position under 5%, meme coins pull back faster than anyone else, don't treat it as value investment.

In this wave of a strong bullish trend that changes beliefs, it's a bit of a pity that there is no $OKB. It is estimated that OKB will still move sideways next week. 1. Although it has recently reclaimed the 100 level by momentum, there is no main theme; among the five coins, it actually fell 2.6% this week, with funds withdrawing from independent small caps back to mainstream coins. 2. It broke 100 to 97 on the 18th, now back to 106. The independent bull market has ended in the short term but hasn't collapsed, just been outperformed. 3. The fully circulating 21 million supply has no unlocking selling pressure. This was an advantage during market fear, but now in a frenzy period, this advantage is worthless. 4. The OKX ecosystem fundamentals remain. Trading volume and on-chain activity haven't changed, but the market doesn't care now—funds are chasing more elastic mainstream and meme coins. 5. No independent catalyst. Previously supported by the "platform value re-evaluation" narrative, now the narrative is overshadowed by $BTC. OKB needs its own positive news to rise again. Trading view: Reduce positions if it falls below 100; only a break above 110 counts as a restart of an independent trend. OKB has now been downgraded from the "only offensive position" to "waiting for rotation." Funds may return only when the overall market stabilizes.

$BTC is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 this week: 1. This wave is a short squeeze rally, rising 24% in a week, from 63,000 to nearly 80,000. The increase is too fast, RSI is off the charts. The shorts have all been squeezed out, such a slope cannot be sustained. 2. In the past two days, $BTC volume exploded, but momentum has weakened. BTC's daily trading volume surged to $96B (usually 30-40B), but the last two candlesticks show shrinking volume, indicating that the chasing funds can no longer drive the price up. 3. Moreover, we are currently in a macroeconomic positive vacuum period. The big positive news from the past two days is indeed good, but few are about to be implemented immediately, and the macro environment is only verbally improving. Everyone should be cautiously optimistic. This wave is a short squeeze rally, not a bull market rebound. Don't let a single bullish candle change your belief, especially don't go all in at 80,000. Also, don't short. If it weren't for so many stubborn shorts yesterday, I don't think it would have risen above 78,000 so quickly. This is a short squeeze rally; the more shorts there are, the more stubborn they are, the more fuel it becomes!

Never go short! This rebound is a short squeeze, specifically targeting to blow out the shorts! If it weren't for so many stubborn shorts yesterday, we wouldn't have hit 80,000 so quickly today. Yesterday saw a 3 billion blowout, and today another 1.2 billion... This rebound feels great, you can always trust $BTC

$BTC has broken through again! Brothers, 77,000 is already underfoot, now directly approaching 78,000. But at this position, I really dare not enter, I even want to reduce my position! At 15:34 today, it officially broke 76,000, up +5% intraday, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in the last 5 trading days, reaching a new high since 5/27. The most critical thing is that it decisively stood above 68,700, a level that suppressed BTC's rebound for a full three months. Short-Term Holder cost base is 68,700, Median Realised is 63,000, both now underfoot, and the trend structure has flipped from "consolidation" to "breakout." But is this a short squeeze or a real breakout? RSI has already reached 77–83, clearly in the overbought zone. More importantly, the "fees are not overheated yet" that I mentioned this morning has been broken; MEXC fees are now +0.0084%, F&G 70 has entered greed, and leverage is truly back. 24-hour short liquidations are 2.7–3 billion dollars, the largest single-day short squeeze in nearly two years, with whale 0x8c96 having a BTC short position liquidated for 96.39 million. The bullets for the short squeeze are spent, leverage is connected, and next it all depends on whether ETFs and spot can take over. The breakout is real, but 77,000 is an extension level; directly rushing above 80,000 is prone to RSI bearish divergence.

$XSKHY Hynix's buyback has truly landed On 8/19, the board approved: a 40 trillion KRW (about $28.6 billion) buyback and full cancellation, the largest in the history of Korean listed companies. Based on the previous day's closing price of 1,662,000 KRW, this amounts to about 24.07 million shares, accounting for 3.3% of total shares, to be slowly purchased over three months starting 8/20. Even more aggressive is raising the shareholder return target from "within 50% of free cash flow" directly to "over 50%", with special dividends also under consideration. This is similar to SanDisk's approach—both are AI storage cash machines starting to give back to shareholders, but Hynix chose "cancellation to reduce share capital and mechanically boost EPS." Based on this, Goldman Sachs raised EPS forecasts for 2027/28 by 10% each. Why play this card now? The stock price halved from the 6/25 high of 2,987,000 KRW to 1,500,000 KRW at the close on 8/19 (down 9.75% that day), while Q2 operating profit soared 557% year-over-year to 60.5 trillion KRW, with net cash of 69 trillion KRW. The company itself said "the current stock price does not reflect intrinsic value." The buyback is a floor for the oversold stock price, not a boost for those chasing highs. Samsung's side is "to be confirmed": rumors after Friday's close say the board is reviewing a special dividend plan of 90–110 trillion KRW, but no official announcement as of writing. Hynix is doing buyback and cancellation, Samsung will most likely go with a special cash dividend, different tools. Also, if Samsung really issues it, the KRW has already risen past 1400 (intraday 1380), so foreign shareholders repatriating funds will dilute some of the benefits. #海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认

$XSNDK I called for taking profits a couple of days ago, and the -12% drop over two days confirmed it. Don't chase the rebound after taking profits; wait for a pullback to 1,500–1,520 before considering further action. On Investor Day, it surged +15% to 1,827, and I called to exit; as a result, on 8/18 it dropped -9% to 1,626, and on 8/19 another -3.5% to 1,569, wiping out 12% in two days, fully confirming the call. On 8/20, it slightly rebounded +2.02% to close at 1,600.62, but after hours it fell again to 1,581, indicating that 1,570–1,600 is the current value range. The long-term contract floor logic remains unchanged: $93.9 billion minimum revenue locked in, $15.5 billion buyback, target gross margin 80%, this is real progress, not just empty promises. Analysts have 20 buys and 1 sell, with an average target price of 2,126 (some as high as 3,600). But the problem remains that it has risen too much. From 240 last December to 1,600 now, it has increased 5.6 times in 8 months, already pricing in earnings for the next couple of years. Look at Micron MU, despite explosive earnings, it still fell 8% after hours; SNDK is clearly lagging now. Moreover, the macro environment is not cooperating today: 30-year US Treasury bonds weakened again, 10-year yield back to 4.7%, and the shadow of the storage sector crash on 8/18 (Hynix ADR -9%) still lingers. SanDisk is a company transformed by long-term contracts into a floor company, but a floor does not mean no pullbacks.

$SOL is experiencing a high beta rally, and the funding rate has turned positive. But my approach: spot trading is fine, don't chase contracts at the peak. Today, SOL pulled from 78–81 up to 87–90, rising 6–10%, with market cap returning to 50.5–51 billion, and volume expanding to 5–5.7 billion. Coinglass's SOL perpetual funding rate flipped from negative on 8/20 directly to +0.0112%/8h (annualized 10.95%), with the entire exchange around 0.01%, showing renewed bullish enthusiasm, but this is just chasing momentum, not a bottom signal. This move is purely beta following BTC/ETH, with no independent catalyst. The upgrade narratives like SIMD-025 remain, but no new positive news has landed. The weekly RSI's previous weak structure at 38 hasn't changed; the daily rebound can't alter the weekly trend unless it holds above the 95 neckline, otherwise, it's just a high beta rebound. Comparing among the 6 coins: BTC is at the end of a short squeeze, OKB is catching up, HYPE surged 27% due to Trump's compliance trigger, and SOL is currently just a high beta follower. It has the greatest elasticity but also the harshest pullbacks; the previous drop from 95 to 77 was a lesson, as SOL especially suffers from liquidity issues.

Everyone, don't be too optimistic. To be serious, this wave of $BTC is a short squeeze, so it's a bit too early to call it a bull run. I guess everyone knows deep down that the recent talk about a bull run is just venting after a long period of silence, just some hot air. 1. To start a bull market, the macro environment must improve comprehensively. Right now, issues like inflation, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about the midterm elections in the US are all present, and it's not easy for these to improve. 2. After the news released the day before yesterday, the macro environment does show signs of improvement, but most of the positive factors are still just verbal at this stage, far from being realized. The rapid rise is clearly because the 60,000~66,000 range has very dense chips, and with the help of good news, the bulls are just taking advantage to harvest shorts. 3. The main issue is that there is still a big resistance zone between 78,000~85,000, where many trapped chips exist. The bulls are very unlikely to break through this zone, so they might retreat before reaching 78,000. I suggest not chasing the highs. I even suspect that this big bullish candle is just to change everyone's belief, followed by a waterfall drop to new lows.

$HYPE This wave was ignited by a single sentence from Trump, a 27% increase, but my thinking is: the positive news is "expectation," not "realization," don't chase between 73–76. At the White House meeting on 8/19, Trump specifically named CFTC Chairman Selig pushing Hyperliquid's "full compliance" entry into the US. HYPE jumped directly from 58 to 72–74, rising 23–27% in 24 hours, market cap surged to 16–18 billion, volume broke 1.3 billion dollars, just a few dollars short of the new high of 76.5 on 6/16. This is pure news-driven short squeeze. But brothers, look clearly: Trump said "working very hard," no approval, no timetable, no registration. CFTC entry into the US still requires at least 3–12 months of preparation, custody/leverage/market monitoring are all unresolved. Previously on 8/17 at SanDisk investor day, I called for taking profits because of this—expectations were overdrawn, and the price fell when the news landed. Hyperliquid is following the same script now: someone bought 719 CALLs 4 hours in advance (65,000 dollars), clearly suspicious of insider information, this kind of pump is the most dangerous. Also, it is just 3 dollars away from the new high, with 76.5 above being a solid historical resistance level. Once compliance progress stalls, sentiment will retreat starting at 20%. HYPE is the brightest among the 6 coins this wave, but also the most fragile