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诸葛投研✊
Influential Creator
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刚$BTC 这波普涨，最直接的导火索是美伊有望停战。
今晚市场传美伊达成结束战争的协议，直接打掉地缘风险溢价，油价、通胀预期都松了一口气，风险资产立刻有理由往上。
$ZEC 涨 7% 领涨，就是避险叙事退潮，隐私叙事重提的信号。
其次是ETF 资金终于回来了，$BTC 现货 ETF 单日净流入 5.27 亿美元，扭转了 10 月中上旬的流出颓势。
贝莱德 IBIT 一家狂揽 6.65 亿，是一年多最大单日流入。是真金白银的买盘。
还有个联动效应：美股科技反弹 + 宏观顺风。上周 AI暴跌后纳指回血，美股一喘气BTC就跟涨上来了。
技术面上我早上其实也说过了，现在BTC进入了三角区，今天或者明天就会出方向，而且我觉得方向是偏多。
刚刚合约 OI 涨得比现货需求快，这波有杠杆仓位驱动成分。也因此，刚刚微策略$MSTR 的股价也大涨5%，就是杠杆拉盘的最好证明。
诸葛投研✊
Institutional funds were still withdrawing yesterday, but fortunately $BTC held the key psychological level. From a technical perspective, the direction will be determined in the next couple of days:
BTC has a resistance level at 84350 on the 14th, and the rebound resistance yesterday was 83150; these two points form a short-term pressure line;
It also found support at 79725 on the 15th during the drop, and the support point during the big drop early yesterday was 80600; these two points form a short-term support line. The triangle area formed by these two lines will be broken in the next day or two.
I believe the direction after the breakout will be upward. Because last week there were bearish factors like "high interest rates, ETF net outflows, high inflation," most RSI indicators were oversold but the coin price remained stable, indicating it can't fall further.
For example, $ETH is in the most awkward position, with spot ETFs experiencing net outflows for the third consecutive week, RSI only at 29, but the price still held steady at the 2300 iron bottom. I think there is a probability of a volume-driven recovery to 2450.
$SOL is also a good candidate dragged down by the overall market. The mainnet launches tomorrow, and RWA has grown sevenfold in a year to a scale of 4.3 billion, definitely one of the main narratives for the next bull market. This month it was completely dragged down by the market, which caused it to break below the 111 USD 20-day moving average.
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