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#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展
The next few days will be lively again.
Judging from the earnings reports released in the past few days, it’s really a case of whoever reports, drops.
Let’s see if the next few can stop the downward trend.
A bunch of major news events are colliding: the Federal Reserve meeting, Microsoft and Meta earnings, GDP, PCE inflation, plus Amazon and Apple’s earnings all coming one after another.
Google, Tesla, and Nvidia have basically submitted their reports early. Google’s free cash flow turned negative, Tesla’s profits were cut in half. Don’t be fooled by Nvidia’s impressive on-paper $10 billion unrealized gains; the absurd valuation and highly concentrated customer base are real risks that make one uneasy upon closer inspection.
Wednesday brings the main event, with interest rates likely to remain unchanged; the focus is on Powell’s statements. My view is that he will still sound hawkish verbally but won’t dare to truly tighten liquidity. Right now, many tech companies are aggressively investing in AI; a forced tightening would impact the entire computing power sector. Microsoft is closely watching Azure’s growth rate; if it falls below 38%, I would choose to reduce holdings. Meta’s market has been sluggish for the past six months; if Zuckerberg announces continued heavy spending on AI again, funds will likely flee.
Thursday’s pressure is even greater, with GDP and PCE data released before the market opens. The market’s biggest fear now is stagflation—economic slowdown with persistently high inflation. If inflation stays around 2.5%, high-valuation tech stocks will inevitably continue to face pressure.
Bank of America estimates Amazon AWS growth at 33%; if the data meets expectations, Nvidia, SK Hynix, and Micron in the computing power and storage chain still have a chance; if not, the entire sector will fluctuate. Don’t listen too much to Cook’s projections; focus on real sales in the Chinese market.
In the past two years, the market was willing to buy into the AI story; now investors are more realistic and only recognize solid cash flow. The next few days will be a big test.
Those that keep burning cash without delivering returns or have a single customer structure will be exposed. $KAITO is showing strong bullish momentum on OKX, trading at $1.1698 with an impressive +15.91% gain after hitting a 24-hour high of $1.1865.
Driven by a solid daily green candle and a clear breakout above its moving averages (MA5: 1.0280, MA10: 0.9754), this AI-category token is demonstrating strong buying interest with a 24-hour trading volume of 3.20M KAITO ($3.38M USDT turnover).
#DailyOrbit @OKX中文 $ADA /USD - BREAKOUT WATCH
Live: $0.16490 (+0.12% 1D)
Support: $0.15530 | Resistance: $0.19980
Downside target: $0.13305 | Invalidation: $0.20648
- Staying below orange resistance keeps the defensive setup active.
- Losing green support confirms the downside pathMarket consolidation is becoming increasingly selective.
Instead of lifting the entire market, liquidity is concentrating in a small number of assets while many others continue to struggle. This is often a sign of a more mature market, where investors prioritise quality over broad speculation.
Among the stronger performers, $LPT has shown notable momentum, while assets like $FIL have also posted encouraging gains. On the other hand, projects such as $SCR, $ALLO, $KITE, and $RE continue to face selling pressure, highlighting how quickly capital can rotate away from weaker narratives.
Meanwhile, $BTC remains the market's primary liquidity anchor, with $ETH continuing to attract institutional interest. Not every asset will participate equally in the next move, making capital rotation an important trend to monitor.
In this environment, patience and selectivity matter more than ever. Focus on assets showing sustained strength, wait for confirmation, and let price action—not emotion—guide your decisions.
#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress
U.S. military pauses airstrikes on Iraq: The truth is to secure votes for the November midterm elections
The US military halted airstrikes, there has been progress in the Strait negotiations, and oil prices have fallen—don't think the Middle East will be peaceful.
Trump's previous string of airstrikes on Iran was intended to solidify the conservative base through a tough image, but it went completely wrong: oil prices broke below $100, fuel prices surged across the U.S., and inflation data turned upward.
The Democrats immediately seized this weak spot, blaming Trump for "rising oil prices and runaway inflation." Blue-collar voters in swing states were dissatisfied, and the Republican House seat continued to narrow.
The core logic is simple: Trump wants to secure the November midterm elections, and oil prices can't rise any further.
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
This election does not elect a president, only seizes control of Congress
With 435 seats in the House of Representatives + 35 seats in the Senate, the Republican Party now holds a very weak advantage, leading by only 5 House seats. After losing the House, Trump has two years left to become a mere formality, unable to push any bills, including CLARITY.
- Direct consequences: If the Republicans lose the House of Representatives, Trump will become a "lame duck" president, and all subsequent bills (including the crypto industry nuclear CLARITY Act) will be locked in bipartisan tug-of-war, making it nearly impossible to push forward, and possibly even facing impeachment initiated by Democrats.
- For the crypto industry, whether the CLARITY Act can be implemented and whether regulation is tight or lenient does not depend on whether Trump calls for crypto, but on whether the Republicans can hold Congress in the midterm elections. Only by holding the line can there be legislative space; if not, don't expect substantial relaxation within two years.
The direct impact on the crypto world of $BTC and ETH
✅ Oil prices retreated→ inflationary pressure eased→ rate cut expectations slightly recovered, and BTC showed a short-term sentiment rebound;
❌ Don't expect progress on the CLARITY bill recently; Trump won't push it hard before the election, fearing criticism of abusing power for personal gain;
⚠️ $BZ. $CL Oil prices and compliance concepts should not be one-sided; these are all temporary market trends. The real turning point will wait for the election results in November.
In short: There are 100 days left until the midterm elections. All policies serve the votes, and all market trends are emotional fluctuations—don't get carried away.Grass (GRASS) price trend on July 26 and expert analysis:
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📊 Price Trends in Late July (Actual Data)
According to CoinLore historical data, GRASS's performance from July 22 to 25 is as follows:
Date Opening Price Highest Price Lowest Price Closing Price Turnover
July 22: 0.3713, 0.3907, 0.3667, 0.3688, 11.1m
July 23: 0.3696, 0.3756, 0.3518, 0.3573, 9.9m
July 24: 0.3581, 0.3630, 0.3291, 0.3348, 10.6m
July 25: 0.3351, 0.3445, 0.3305, 0.3422, 7.6m
Key observation: After the claim channel opened on July 22, GRASS fell for three consecutive days, falling from 0.3688 to 0.3348, a cumulative drop of about 9.2%; On July 25, there was a slight rebound to 0.3422, but volume shrank to 7.6m (a recent low), indicating insufficient buying pressure.
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🔮 July 26 trend forecast
Since the current (July 26, 19:43) daily K-line has not yet closed, some prediction models provide reference ranges:
- 3Commas forecast: July 26 price range 0.3198 – 0.3213
- CoinCodex Forecast: May test down to 0.3033 within this week
⚠️ > The above are algorithmic predictions, not actual transaction prices, for reference only.
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🎯 Expert interpretation: Four core contradictions
1️⃣ Positive airdrop vs. supply selling pressure
On July 22, the second quarter rewards officially opened for claims, but the rewards were replaced by USDC instead of GRASS tokens—meaning the potential selling pressure on about 170 million tokens has not yet materialized, which is a short-term positive for holders. However, in July, 21.73 million tokens were still unlocked (accounting for 5.18% of market cap), and combined with 33.4 million tokens unlocked on June 28, supply-side pressure persists.
2️⃣ Community sentiment deteriorates
A large number of node users reported that "after two years of idleness, only received a few USDC dollars," and "uninstall Grass" became a popular buzzword in the community. The controversy over points statistics (Uptime Points vs Network Points) further weakened user stickiness. The breakdown of community consensus is often a precursor to prolonged price pressure.
3️⃣ Technically, bears dominate
- The price continues to move below all major moving averages (30-day and 50-day SMAs).
- The 50-day SMA is at 0.4406, with the current price deviating by about 22%
- The Fear and Greed Index stands at only 27 (fear), indicating a pessimistic market sentiment
- Volatility reaches 13.25%, with significant short-term volatility risk
4️⃣ Fundamentals still have bright spots
Unlike other purely speculative tokens, Grass has commercialized its implementation—generating real revenue by selling compliant datasets to AI labs, with over 8.5 million registered users in 190 countries worldwide, and has received investments from top institutions such as Polychain Capital and Tribe Capital. This provides some support for long-term value.
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📉 Comprehensive judgment
Dimension Rating Explanation
Short-term (1-7 days): ⚠️ Bearish bias: Unlocking selling pressure + funds flowing out after withdrawal, shrinking trading volume, weak rebound
Mid-term (January-March): ➡️ Volatility Airdrop controversy digestion period; monitor user retention and AI data revenue progress
Long-term (June+) 📊 Wait-and-see depends on the overall recovery of the DePIN sector and the deepening of project commercialization
Key price points for reference:
- Support levels: 0.3300 (July 24 low), 0.3033 (forecast low)
- Resistance levels: 0.3600 (July 23 high), 0.3900 (July 22 high)
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💡 > Risk Warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. The above analysis is based on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice. GRASS is currently down about 87% from its all-time high of 3.89. In a highly volatile environment, strictly control your positions. $GRASS With South Korea's storage giant signing a massive long-term deal with Nvidia, Micron $MU's share in the high-end computing power supply chain is facing a vacuum period. The capacity supply expectations brought by Changxin Memory's IPO are being transmitted through risk appetite to the valuation model of the semiconductor sector. If aggressive market pricing leads to aggressive share concessions, margin pressure will become the main issue. If industry capital expenditure contracts more than expected, the logic of supply-demand mismatch will be reversed. Focus on the range of gross margin changes in subsequent quarterly financial reports.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, progress in negotiations on the opening of the strait #SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧📉 内因：AI“烧钱”引发信任危机，财报成导火索 市场开始重新审视AI投资的真实回报。谷歌和特斯拉的财报成了直接导火索： 谷歌（Alphabet）：云业务虽增长强劲，但2026年资本支出预期被大幅上调至1950亿至2050亿美元，导致自由现金流数十年来首次转负。市场将其解读为“投入产出比堪忧”。 特斯拉（Tesla）：交付量虽创新高，但第二季度自由现金流同样转负，经营利润同比大降57%。AI、机器人和新产线的巨大投入持续挤压利润率。 这两份财报加深了市场的核心疑虑：“AI何时才能稳定产生真金白银的回报？”。这一疑虑迅速蔓延，导致整个“七巨头”遭遇15个月来最惨烈的抛售，市值单日蒸发约7970亿美元。 🔥 外因：地缘冲突推高油价，引爆加息预期 与此同时，外部宏观环境急剧恶化，起到了推波助澜的作用： 油价破百，通胀再起：中东局势升级，也门胡塞武装袭击红海油轮，叠加美国威胁军事打击伊朗，推动布伦特原油时隔数月再次突破100美元/桶。 加息预期骤升，股债双杀：油价飙升迅速点燃了市场对通胀和美联储被迫加息的恐慌。市场预期下周（7月28-29日）加息概率从一周前的约10%飙升至近40%，9月加Big Tech earnings highlighted a shift in how markets are pricing the AI narrative.
Despite strong operating results, including robust cloud growth, investors focused on rising AI capital expenditure rather than revenue momentum. What was once rewarded as long-term vision is now being judged on expected returns and execution.
The same theme has been weighing on the semiconductor sector. The question is no longer whether AI is transformative—it's whether the enormous investment can generate meaningful returns within a reasonable timeframe.
$BTC
Crypto is facing a similar dynamic. Narratives can drive momentum, but markets eventually demand fundamentals. When expectations outpace results, valuations get repriced.
With risk sentiment cooling and BTC trading under pressure, the broader message across markets is clear: investors want evidence, not just potential.
#CLARITYActStalled #EarningsRealityCheck #USIranStrikePause Guys, SCR dropped another 7.8% today, now at $0.02066. It opened at $1.44 in October 2024, now at $0.02—down 98.6%, breaking below the July all-time low of $0.0258. Ether.fi Cash crypto credit card migrated from Scroll to OP mainnet, taking away 70,000 active cards and about 160 million TVL, which was once Scroll's highest-earning core app. Since the migration and implementation, the Scroll ecosystem has continued to bleed, TVL turned negative, and the number of active on-chain applications has dropped sharply. Scroll brought cryptography, Optimism brought checkbook. Three Mountains Pressing Down 1. Token dilution: 1 billion total supply, only 19% circulating, the remaining 81% gradually unlocked 2. Governance Crisis: DAO Members Resign Collectively, New Proposal Approval Suspended 3. DeFi withdrawal: Aave is considering reducing risk exposure. Lido will stop cross-chain bridge services with SCR only serving governance functions, without protocol yield dividends, no deflation mechanisms, and no staking yield capture; Recently, the average daily network fees have remained at extremely low levels. ZKRollup's technical narrative is correct, but Scroll's pockets are too shallow in the L2 "checkbook race." If 0.020 cannot hold, the lower level will open. Before clear positive news reverses the downward trend, every rebound could be an exit opportunity. Personal market view analysis and market information compilationHere’s why $HYPE won while everyone else fumbled.
Polymarket and Kalshi both said launching a token would be a mistake. Their take was that a token creates messy value accrual and misaligned incentives. So they stayed away.
Hyperliquid did the exact opposite from day one.
They built $HYPE to capture value directly in the protocol. Early users got rewarded. Early believers got rich. And those people didn’t just sell and leave. They turned into superfans who actually defend and grow the product.
That’s the difference.
Most projects treat the token like an afterthought. Hyperliquid made the token the engine. When holders win, the protocol wins. When the protocol wins, holders win harder.
Value accrual plus aligned incentives equals real community. That’s why $HYPE worked, and why the others are still explaining why they don’t have a token.
#CLARITYActStalled #EarningsRealityCheck 1 Gwei, can you believe it? Ethereum gas is so low that each transfer costs just a few cents, and DeFi interactions are as smooth as drinking water. Stack 2, cross-chain bridges, and DEX transactions—just tap your wallet lightly and no longer have to worry about gas fees. But the coin holders couldn't smile. Why? Because the EIP-1559 destruction mechanism is stalling. The current situation is somewhat similar to the third quarter of last year—$ETH fee income has dropped to rock bottom, with daily burns less than 100 tokens. The online inflation rate quietly climbed, and the original narrative of deflation turned into "mild inflation." Market sentiment is very divided. Retail investors think it's great to be cheap, while the 'Hair-Farming Party' is aggressively stockpiling trading volume, and L2 ecosystem activity has reached a new high. But the bulls are bitter—they can't burn coins on-chain, and the $ETH supply hasn't decreased but actually expanded slightly. Some people dug up old maps from 2022 for comparison and found that basic tier activities are indeed quiet now, with big money flowing into L2. If you play it safe, these numbers are actually within expectations. After the Cancun upgrade, L2s inherit security but don't need to burn as much gas on the mainnet. Ethereum's scaling path is to make the mainnet the settlement layer. But the problem is, much of the market's belief in "ultrasonic money" is built on deflationary narratives. When gas drops, a piece of narrative is missing. I actually think now is not the time to be pessimistic. 1 Gwei precisely shows that Ethereum scaling has succeeded. Millions of people interact on L2, with fees so cheap it's negligible—this is what a large-scale bridge is. The burn is only temporary; wait for on-chain applications to explode,$MU On the 24th, the South Korean president visited the U.S. and signed $700 billion long-term contracts with Nvidia for SK Hynix and Samsung. Currently, there is no deal with Micron or SanDisk, and with ChangXin Memory's listing on Monday, the dual pressure is weighing on Micron and SanDisk#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? $SNDK $SPCX
Why did Google and Tesla's financial reports "die in the light"?
The market looks not only at performance but also at future expectations.
Google: Cloud business growth of 82% is positive, but capital expenditures soared to nearly $200 billion, resulting in negative cash flow.
The market is asking: "With so much money spent on AI, how soon will it take to recoup the profits?" "—So he sold first to hedge the risk.
Tesla: Delivery Record High, but Profits Plunge 57%.
Excessive investment in new cars and robots has led the market to worry about declining profitability, causing the stock price to plunge.
Why didn't Bitcoin follow the decline this time?
Because the reasons for the decline differ. This US stock market decline is due to an internal industry issue called "AI investment returns," while Bitcoin has no earnings reports or capital expenditures; it is more directly affected by dollar liquidity and interest rates.
So it temporarily broke out of its independent market.
But this "decoupling" is fragile. If oil prices trigger inflation and the Fed raises rates, the entire market will fall, and BTC will follow suit.
The price is caught between $63,500 (support) and $69,500 (resistance), caught between the upper and lower levels.
Next week is the Federal Reserve meeting and earnings reports from giants like Microsoft and Amazon, with increased volatility—this is the critical moment for deciding the direction.
My advice: In the 63.5K-69.5K range, patience is more important than direction.
Don't rush to chase rises or cut losses; wait for the price to break through or break below the range, then follow the trend. Risk control always comes first; single losses should not exceed 0.5% of total funds. $GOOGL Aunt Ai posted that Changxin Memory (CXMT) will be listed on the STAR Market on July 27, and the CXMT contract pricing mechanism, funding rate, and liquidity performance on Hyperliquid will undergo important testing. Analysis points out that after Changxin's official listing, the contract price of Hyperliquid's CXMT contract will gradually shift from the internal oracle price during the pre-IPO phase to the external oracle price tracking the true trading price of A-shares.
Specifically, when the STAR Market opens and the market has sufficiently stable external price data, the system will automatically trigger a price switch. The new price anchor is converted by TradeXYZ's internal oracle generated from the order book, which tracks Changxin A-share spot prices and converts them to external oracle prices based on real-time exchange rates.
Since oracle prices update about every 3 seconds and each change is limited to ±1%, even if contract prices deviate significantly from the real market price during the pre-IPO phase, convergence is achieved gradually, but liquidation risks may still arise during the process.
Regarding funding rates, after Changxin's listing, the Hyperliquid CXMT contract will return to its normal mechanism. In the previous pre-IPO phase, to reduce the funding cost for traders waiting for listing, the funding rate multiplier was only 1% of the normal contract, dropping from 0.5 to 0.005. After the official listing, this parameter will revert to 0.5, and the funding rate adjustment function will be reinstated. Regarding price formation during the A-share market closure, analysis suggests that Hyperliquid's CXMT price will return to the internal oracle price formed by its own order book, effectively entering the "inside market" trading phase.英伟达与SK海力士达成5000亿美元AI合作，先把口径说清楚：这更像产业链长期协作规模，不是一张当天兑现的5000亿美元订单。
据双方合作信息，合作覆盖AI算力、HBM和下一代存储芯片，英伟达需要稳定的高带宽内存供应，SK海力士需要可预测的AI平台需求。两家公司把最紧的产能和最强的客户绑定在一起，目的都是缩短从芯片设计到数据中心部署的时间。
我觉得这个数字的意义在供应链锁定，而不在标题本身。AI资本开支如果继续增长，HBM会成为算力扩张的瓶颈；如果云厂商开始削减预算，超大合作框架也会重新谈价格和交付。
质疑者会说，5000亿美元容易被媒体写成确定收入，甚至提前推高估值。这个提醒必须保留。胖友们，先看采购承诺、出货量和现金流，再看合作金额。
$NVDA $SKHYNIX #英伟达 #SK海力士After the SpaceX Starship completed its first successful test flight after its launch, the market saw a single launch; what investors truly wanted was the repeatable engineering process.
According to the mission results, this test achieved key flight objectives, indicating that at least part of the launch, stage separation, and return control had already overcome previous failure points. A one-time success cannot replace complete validation; Starship also faces challenges such as thermal protection, engine reliability, and high-frequency reuse.
I think the first success after going public will amplify short-term sentiment in capital markets, but SpaceX's long-term valuation ultimately depends on the cost and turnaround time per launch. Flying once is technical news; being able to stably send payloads into orbit is the real business model.
Skeptics will argue that successful test flights may still be due to sample bias, and regulatory and security reviews will slow things down. This judgment holds true. The interval between next launches, payload quality, and recovery status is more worth documenting than the celebratory video.
$SPACEX #SpaceX #星舰$GOOGL Core pricing conflicts focus on book valuations versus cash flow deviations excluding unearned income. Hedge $200 billion in annualized operating cash flow based on a $4 trillion market cap, reducing the underlying valuation to 20 times.
Structurally, the $4 trillion market cap corresponds to a 20x operating cash flow multiple, forming a strong structural support line below the mid-term price.
The driving forces driving and suppressing valuation revaluation are, in order, core cash flow efficiency, pressure from AI R&D and infrastructure capital expenditure, and the growth performance of digital advertising business.
The bullish breakout scenario is based on quarterly net cash from operating activities stabilizing at the $50 billion level. If the $200 billion annualized cash flow forecast continues to be confirmed, the valuation center will be locked in the low 20-fold range, driving prices upward to create premium space.
The failure signal of this upward scenario is that unchecked expansion of AI infrastructure capital expenditures squeezes profit margins, causing the latest single-quarter operating cash flow to fall significantly below the $46 billion benchmark, directly increasing the actual cash flow multiple.
The trigger for the bearish downward scenario is the slowdown in digital advertising revenue growth combined with capital expenditure pressure. Once quarterly cash flow declines, the market will price again at higher multiples, and attempts to test resistance upward will fail.
When the price falls back to the support zone corresponding to 20 times cash flow and volatility narrows, the downward trend will end, and the market will re-enter a consolidation range.
Over the next seven days, focus on the annualized certainty of the latest $46 billion in operating cash flow for the quarter, as well as the actual erosion of capital expenditures on this cash flow capacity.
#新手必看: Here is everything you need #财报观察员: Who can understand the real answers from Google and Tesla this time? #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元The CLARITY Act proposes to reward white-hat hackers, and regulators are beginning to acknowledge a reality: those who discover vulnerabilities do not necessarily have to face lawyers first.
According to the bill's related discussion text, compliance disclosure, vulnerability fixes, and good faith security research are expected to receive clearer protections, and some white-hat contributions may be incentivized through bounties or liability waivers. For DeFi, reporting a vulnerability early often outweighs post-event accountability.
I think the boundaries of this clause are more important than the "reward amount." What is kindness? Do researchers have to notify the project team first? How long until the project team fixes the issue before making it public? How should responsibilities be divided among cross-chain protocols, front-ends, and smart contracts? These details determine whether it is a safety incentive or a new compliance gray area.
The negative side might say the reward system will encourage more people to attack, and the project team might use the "white hat" label to lower the bounty. This concern is valid, so timelines, evidence retention, and independent dispute resolution are needed. The bill does not offer a get-out-of-jail-free card, but rather a verifiable standard of good faith.
$BTC $ETH #CLARITY法案 #白帽黑客Today is Sunday, the market remains flat as usual. BTC is hovering around 64,000, ETH is stuck repeatedly testing before the 1900 mark. No data or large funds this weekend, like an office on holiday. The lights are still on, but people are already lost in thought. If there's a real change in the past two days, it's hidden in Ethereum. From July 14 to 21, ETF net inflows approached $200 million. BlackRock's ETHA entered at most over 58 million in a single day. Fidelity also launched its own stablecoin FIDD on Ethereum. The institution disappeared for over half a year and suddenly started replying to your messages again This scene is too familiar. Like that ex, who colded you for a whole quarter, then suddenly sent a message late one night saying, 'Are you there?' Your heart is racing but you have to stay alert. One inflow doesn't mean lasting affection; it depends on whether it's passing by or if you really want to stay overnight. The real battle starts tomorrow. The Fed will meet from the 28th to the 29th, and the market generally bets on holding steady for the fifth time. But oil prices have broken the 100-year mark and the probability of a rate hike jumping from 12% to 38% within a week. Don't rush to bet on rate cuts. Upside risks are quietly emerging. So my thoughts are still the same: the most valuable weekend moves are often holding steady It's good that institutions are turning back, but the direction depends on next week's FOMC announcement. Bullets are stocked, and cash is a kind of confidence. Those who can hold hold will have the right to pick the fat and the lean next week. Peace, take a good rest this weekend. The market never lets patient people down. #晚间复盘 #BTC #ETH #以太坊ETF The market data is based on the weekend of July 26: BTC about $64,000, ETH around $1,900Rushing to catch the last train! South Korea's retail investors bought 450 billion won in a single day before the new regulations, and leveraged ETFs are on the verge of bankruptcy
The drama in the Korean stock market is getting more and more exciting. People thought that a strong regulatory crackdown would keep retail investors in check, but instead, Korean retail investors immediately started their final frenzy, frantically buying semiconductor leveraged ETFs before the new regulation took effect on the 31st.
Data shows that on the 24th (Friday), Korean retail investors net bought 453.8 billion won in leveraged individual stock ETFs in a single day, with SK Hynix-related products accounting for 350 billion won. On that day, Samsung and SK both plunged 7%-8%, with these leveraged products dropping 15%-16%, nearly halved compared to the 20,000 won issue price at the end of May. The retail investors' logic is quite peculiar: after such a big drop, it's cheap; if you don't buy No. 31 now, the threshold is 30 million won (about 150,000 yuan), and you won't be eligible to buy.
Behind this is a death spiral for retail investors. At the end of May, South Korea allowed single-share leveraged ETFs, originally aiming to bring funds back, but retail investors rushed in and turned Korean stocks into casinos. Samsung and SK Hynix hold over 60% KOSPI weights; after a flood of leveraged funds, any pullback is a trampling. Since July, multiple circuit breakers have occurred, with over 1.2 million retail accounts hitting margin call thresholds—equivalent to one in every 30 adults facing liquidation. Some people invested 80 million won in wedding home payments, but now a quarter of the unrealized loss can only delay the wedding date; Some borrowed money to expand their principal to 300 million won, and a single pullback wiped it out to zero.
The Financial Services Commission of Korea panicked, directly suspending new product launches, banning advertising, raising the margin threshold to 30 million won with only cash recognition, and limiting trading to 20 shares per transaction. Previously, brokerages had said they would raise the price to 50 million, but later set it at 30 million, leaving retail investors with a last-minute route.
For those still watching from the sidelines, my advice is: don't become a competitor to Korean retail investors! These leveraged ETFs now have a daily rebalancing mechanism, so when prices fall, they face passive selling pressure, creating negative feedback where the price drops more and more sells. Moreover, regulatory deleveraging isn't over yet. Although margin balances have dropped, forced liquidations are still ongoing. If you're not a top short-term expert, don't take this flying knife.
What do you think about South Korea's collapse of this leveraged bull market? Is it regulation mending the barn after the sheep have been lost, or excessive intervention?SK Hynix expects to hit a new profit record in the second quarter, and HBM demand pushes the memory chip cycle to a rare position.
According to the company's performance forecasts and market consensus expectations, AI server orders continue to drive up shipments and prices of high-bandwidth memory, with profit elasticity significantly higher than traditional DRAM. For SK Hynix, what is truly scarce is not ordinary memory capacity, but HBM production lines that can be verified by customers and delivered on time.
I think this news shouldn't be simply written as "chip stocks are about to rise again." Suppliers will expand production, customers will raise their bargains, and the next phase of the market will shift from focusing on revenue growth to focusing on gross margin and return on capital expenditures. As long as AI server demand remains, HBM remains the moat; Once the pace of orders slows down, fixed assets and inventories in turn amplify volatility.
Bears will say that a new quarterly high may be the top of the price cycle, and Samsung and Micron are also catching up. This judgment makes sense, so I focus on three numbers: HBM shipments, yield, and next quarter's price guidance. Fat friends, the easiest time to buy at a high price is often when the profit and loss statement hits a new record.
$SKHYNIX #SK海力士 #HBMBitcoin mining electricity consumption has increased by 38%, and the debate returns to the old question: does more electricity bring stronger network security, or do external costs increase?
According to estimates from the Cambridge Bitcoin Power Consumption Index and others, global mining machine electricity consumption is still rising, driven by three main factors: hash rate expansion, efficiency upgrades after retirement of old equipment, and some mining farms shifting to areas with excess electricity. 38% is not just a waste indicator and cannot automatically be equated with green transformation.
I think what really matters is how much electricity each unit is safe for, and whether the proportion of renewable energy and curtailment has increased in tandem. Miners eat up periods of low electricity prices, potentially helping the grid absorb the cost; If residential electricity is competing in a tight grid, regulatory backlash will become a cost.
The opponent will say mining is ineffective competition and that electricity should prioritize serving the real industry. This criticism is valid in peak electricity price areas, but it does not cover all power supply structures. Next, variables even more important than computing power are power sources and mining farm locations.
$BTC #比特币挖矿El Salvador received about $35.4 million in crypto remittances in the first half of the year. While the numbers appear to be growing, they still represent a small portion of the entire remittance portfolio.
According to the central bank of El Salvador, traditional remittances will remain the main source in the first half of 2026, with crypto channels accounting for less than 1%. The quarterly data in the chart also shows that rising usage has not changed the dominance of dollar cash and bank transfers.
What I find most interesting about this news is that it simultaneously proves two things: Bitcoin payments have not disappeared, but they are far from replacing mainstream remittances. What users are willing to use depends on the fees, the speed of payment, and whether the payee can spend it directly, rather than on policy slogans.
Supporters argue that $35.4 million is just an early base, and that wallet and merchant networks will compound. This logic only holds true when active addresses, repurchase frequency, and actual consumption grow together. Friends, the final voting unit in the remittance market is not coins, but the cost of receiving every dollar.
$BTC #萨尔瓦多 #加密汇款Wise plans to reapply for a banking license under the GENIUS Act, with the keyword not "banking" but stablecoin rules, leaving a new compliance entry point for payment companies.
According to relevant regulations and company disclosures, Wise wants to bring cross-border payments, customer fund management, and digital asset settlement into a clearer licensing framework. While banking licenses improve settlement and fund arrangements, they also mean capital, audit, anti-money laundering, and liquidity requirements are rising together.
I think the market tends to write this as Wise planning to issue a stablecoin, and the current evidence does not support such a quick conclusion. A more practical approach is to first connect US dollar payments with stablecoin infrastructure, so customers feel faster transfers rather than an extra new coin.
Skeptics will argue that a license application does not equal approval, and the enforcement rules of the GENIUS Act could also change the cost structure. This judgment holds true. For Wise, the real challenge is whether compliance costs can be lower than the money saved by cross-border settlement.
$WISE #Wise #GENIUS法案#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展
I am the Midline Intelligence Guy. Seeing the line "US military suspends airstrikes on Iran + Strait navigation talks make progress," let me pour cold water first: this is not a ceasefire, it's Trump putting bombers back in the hangar and putting chips on the table.
After 13 consecutive days of airstrikes, Iran hasn't collapsed, and the US military's key ammunition is running low. Continuing to bomb yields zero marginal benefit and only tightens the noose of oil prices and inflation around their own neck. On the 24th, Trump canceled the day's strike plan, and a few hours earlier, the Omani delegation had already landed in Tehran to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz — the timing is more precise than a script, clearly saying "tired of fighting, switching cards to keep the pressure."
Progress in Strait navigation talks essentially means both sides are stepping back halfway to catch their breath: the US wants oil prices to fall and to avoid a quagmire; Iran wants the blockade loosened to protect its export lifeline. But the Central Command's maritime blockade is still in effect, the US military still intercepts ships forcing detours, and the bayonets under the negotiation table have not been withdrawn. Meanwhile, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps also released satellite images showing damage to US base ammunition, indicating the "pause" is just a tactical window, not a strategic withdrawal.
My judgment here is simple: fighting and talking, bombing and negotiating is the new normal in the Middle East. If the Oman-Iran agreement lands over the weekend, oil prices will cool down in the short term, but the US military's contingency plans remain, and Trump's trigger finger saying "ready to escalate anytime" hasn't been pulled back. This game is far from over.
$BTC On-chain staking signals have changed, completely rewriting the ETH selling pressure logic #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 $ETH
Anyone working with Ethereum on-chain data knows that the validator exit queue is the most genuine sentiment indicator hidden beneath the surface. Today, a highly symbolic signal appeared since the Shanghai upgrade unlocked staking: the exit queue dropped directly to zero.
Reviewing the market pattern over the past year: as long as the exit queue continuously accumulates hundreds or thousands of nodes, the market will see a continuous outflow of selling pressure. A large number of stakers and institutional staking service providers redeem ETH in batches, creating a persistent downward momentum. Behind every round of decline is the underlying driver of staking capital fleeing.
The queue clearing to zero implies three key market changes:
1. Panic cash-out selling is completely cleared
Retail stakers with short-term withdrawal needs have all completed redemption, with no backlog of chips waiting to be sold to crash the market. The internal source of continuous selling pressure in the market disappears directly.
2. Institutional holdings shift to a conservative bullish stance
MicroStrategy and leading staking platforms have paused their batch shutdown of validator nodes to cash out. Institutions no longer concentrate on selling staked ETH, increasing the willingness to lock in long-term chips.
3. The balance of bull and bear narratives shifts
Previously, the core on-chain argument for bears was the continuous escape of staking funds. Now this logic fails, bears lose the fundamental support for long-term shorting, and downward momentum is greatly weakened.
However, an objective breakdown is necessary; do not blindly turn bullish:
Queue zeroing only resolves on-chain staking selling pressure and cannot hedge against external macro risks. Nonfarm payrolls, Federal Reserve rate hike statements, and Nasdaq index trends will still dominate ETH’s mid-term major trend.
This signal can only be defined as a "bottom support signal," not an immediate trigger for a one-sided big rally. To achieve a sustained rebound, incremental capital inflows and ETF fund inflows working in resonance are still needed.The XRP Ledger attracted about $2.6 billion in RWA inflows in half a year, which is a large number, but don't equate it with $2.6 billion in XRP purchases.
According to RWA.xyz's on-chain statistics, funds mainly flow into tokenized government bonds, fund shares, and payment-related assets, while the ledger handles issuance, settlement, and liquidity. What really matters are the active holders of these assets, the frequency of transfers, and whether stable on-chain fees are generated.
I think the value of this news lies in the fact that 'asset on-chain' is starting to shift from concept to balance sheet, rather than XRP price immediately receiving cash flow support. RWA projects can use XRPL, but value capture still depends on whether the application uses XRP for bridging, settlement, or liquidity management.
The opponent will say the $2.6 billion is just a short-term migration, and many tokenized products still rely on institutional pilots, so scale does not equal retention. This doubt is valid, so I will look at the half-year inflow separately from the retention over the next 90 days. Guys, having money in the ledger and tokens capturing money are two different things.
$XRP #XRP账本Behind "Dropping out to trade stocks and attain enlightenment"
I watched "Dropping out" twice before. The first time was during the period when he became famous, but at that time I was suffering serious losses without realizing it, only admiring him blindly, and failed to grasp even a bit of the essence of his thinking.
Later, after seeking answers externally without success, I looked inward and watched "Dropping out" again. The second time brought me significant improvement because I was able to understand what he wanted to express and began to gradually apply it to my own actual trading combined with my own understanding.
Here, I will first extract what I personally consider the essence of "Dropping out" thinking:
Why are there large drawdowns?
Random probability consists of three parts: consecutive successes, consecutive failures, and probability matching phases. In stocks, you will experience consecutive successes, but what causes your consecutive successes are external factors, not yourself. You will also experience consecutive failures, and you will alternate between success and failure. The same method in different scenarios inevitably leads to different results, so operating in scenarios with a high success rate is optimal. But not everyone is so rational. After consecutive successes, confidence greatly increases. What is confidence? It is treating low-probability events as if they are high-probability events. For example, if you keep making money in a bear market, it creates an illusion that this is not a bear market. Confidence diminishes through consecutive failures, which inevitably cause drawdowns until you remain rational. This drawdown point is generally the starting point of the previous round of funds. So there are two ways to control drawdowns: one is to always stay rational, and the other is to psychologically raise the drawdown point.
Bull market thinking is fatal for short-term funds. It causes you to overestimate the strength of individual stocks subjectively, thus missing the best buy and sell points. Bull market thinking is only suitable for medium- to long-term funds; it can increase holding confidence and ignore small fluctuations, holding from start to finish.
Learn to observe others making money:
If no one can make money in a market, no one would participate. It is precisely the spread of this profit-making effect that continuously attracts new participants. Therefore, some people must be making money. In bull markets, this group is large; in bear markets, it is small. So don’t delude yourself into thinking you are making money while others are losing. There are two types of people who make money in the market: those who rely on luck and those who rely on ability. Luck is not sustainable, so there is no need to envy it. Money made by ability should not be envied but learned from. Don’t compare how much you make with others. Once you compare, you will desire to surpass others, which leads you to subjectively believe uncertain operations are feasible. This is gambling.
Stay out of the market waiting for the best buy point:
The best buy point should be the point with the highest certainty to buy. Only by doing this can you compound profits. Many people act before the best buy point arrives, and when it does, they have no bullets left, leaving only regret and no further progress, sometimes without even learning a lesson.
Don’t pay too much attention to others’ trades:
First, others’ trade tickets are useless because you don’t know why they bought or sold at that time. If you operate only based on chart technical indicators, you are completely off track. Second, others’ real trades can disturb your mindset. If others make money, it may hurt your confidence or increase urgency. If others lose money, it may cause schadenfreude or self-comfort, reducing your drive or numbing you to losses. The worst is when you can’t keep up when others make money but follow when they lose. Whether others’ words are right or wrong, you can watch and listen. After seeing many, you will encounter a phrase that enlightens you, but trading should be independent thinking.
Personality control and stock techniques:
Stock techniques can be learned over time. After about a year in the market, you basically understand some points. Once you understand a certain buy point, if you only buy at that point, your chances of winning are high. But few people can do that. When that point doesn’t appear, they buy other unknown points and lose the money they earned. This is drawdown. So the importance of personality control emerges. Can you control yourself to buy only at that point? As your technique deepens and expands, many points will appear, and you won’t have to wait long. Overall success rate will be higher. Most people can achieve this.
Many want to become "Dropping out," so they study "Dropping out," but many remain at the beginner stage—seeing with their eyes and thinking they understand, but their minds are muddled. Returning to reality, they have not achieved unity of knowledge and action. They often think they understand, but their operations are a mess, showing they have not truly grasped it, only skimming the surface, learning the form but not the spirit.
Here, I simplify and talk about the essential truth of "attaining enlightenment":
Many people talk a lot about enlightenment, but they miss the point. They often think enlightenment is learning a technique, but actually, enlightenment is very simple: stable profit.
This stable profit, in other words, is compounding. You may not have personally felt the power of compounding, but you have probably heard many people talk about it. Most people have seen many examples, including the concept of compounding and how it makes assets grow exponentially. But how to achieve compounding is something many seek but cannot understand or explain clearly.
After experiencing a year of doubling, halving, doubling, halving, what I desperately sought was how to control drawdowns after my next big profit, so that when my next big gain appears, if I can control the drawdown period by staying out of the market, then what remains is doubling - out of market - doubling - out of market... repeating. Would that be stable profit? Would that be compounding? Would that be "attaining enlightenment"?
The answer is yes. But to control drawdowns, many opportunities must be given up, so in actual operation, the offensive may not be so strong. I know this is because preventing many drawdowns leads to weaker offense, but the growth of funds is not slow.
"Attaining enlightenment" is actually not far from us, nor is it something extraordinary. When you stand on tiptoe trying to reach something unreachable, try to relax and look back; maybe the scenery behind you is more charming and dazzling.Compliance is the ticket. Not a moat.
The current predicament of CEXs. Licenses, proof of reserves, KYC/AML, and client asset segregation are the minimum thresholds for survival. But the real pressure lies behind: exchanges are all competing for the US stock tokenization track, because the old model relying on token fees and fees is no longer viable.
The problem is, introducing U.S. stocks, ETFs, and pre-IPOs as traditional financial assets essentially handed over pricing and settlement power to Wall Street. In the short term, Perps can keep trading volume going, but what about the long term? Pricing centers become channels and gateways—what do users want? Is the fee low?
Small and medium-sized exchanges now have only three paths: deepen regional licenses for localization, focus on niche products (TradFi assets or RWAFi), and fully embrace crypto-native narratives (DeFi, Agentic Economy). Continuing homogenized competition, clearing out the market is only a matter of time.What Gate means is: the 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD we paid according to the contract arrived in the "scammer's" wallet, and coincidentally, Gate's alpha automatically scraped ALD tokens, so the process couldn't be disclosed who connected to the token. In the end, the scammer's wallet was transferred to Gate alpha for an airdrop. Is that how it works?
Hash is here, the answer is here
When a project pays for it, registers tokens, and is then told "the person communicating with you is not one of us, and the project is logged into Gate"—this is already a credibility issue for GateThe next Bitcoin mining difficulty is expected to be reduced by about 1.2%.
According to BTC.com's adjustment estimates, the current total network computing power remains high, but difficulty has slightly declined, usually meaning that some machine's marginal revenue has already been eaten up by electricity bills and equipment depreciation. For miners, it's a breathing room; For cybersecurity, 1.2% is still far from structural change.
I think the easiest market misunderstanding is directly translating the difficulty reduction as "miners must surrender." Difficulty is the lag variable; coin price, electricity price, and computing power migration are the leading variables. Leading mining companies have cheaper electricity and more efficient ASICs, so when difficulty drops, they can actually make some profits to recover.
Bears will say that a drop in difficulty signals a weakening mining cycle; This logic only holds true when hash rate declines for multiple consecutive periods and miner reserves increase simultaneously. Friends, first look at the hash rate curve after two adjustments, then decide whether this is noise or a turning point.
$BTC #比特币挖矿难度South Korea's pension fund has turned bullish on KOSPI for the first time this year, buying 425.8 billion KRW of SK hynix — signals from institutional bottom positions, what should the crypto circle watch?
The national team leadership baton of the National Pension System (NPS) suddenly shifted in July.
Korea Exchange data: As of July 24, pension funds such as NPS made their first monthly net purchases of KOSPI constituent stocks this year, totaling 68.4 billion KRW (about 46.8 million USD), ending a six-month streak of net selling.
Even more impressive is the stock selection—SK Hynix saw a net purchase of 425.8 billion won in a single month, ranking first for two consecutive months, far surpassing SK Innovation (224.7 billion) and S-Oil (174.4 billion).
Why is it important?
In the first half of the year, the market feared the rebalancing selling bomb: NPS domestic stocks exceeded the limit, with theoretical selling pressure reaching up to 74 trillion KRW. As a result, when KOSPI fell, the proportion of stock holdings naturally slipped to about 25%, falling within the 15%–27% target range, which dissolved selling pressure and turned into net buying.
Shifting to the crypto perspective is quite interesting:
• Traditional large long-term funds (pension funds) increased their positions in AI storage leaders after a decline, essentially buying core assets on pullbacks
• NPS currently holds about 7.88% of SK Hynix, making it the second largest shareholder after SK Square, with a very strong institutional bottom position
• Corresponding to the crypto world: similar to when BTC/ETH tests key support, sovereign funds or long-term asset managers reverse to buy the stock
Don't chase short-term, but the combination of long-term institutional first turns long + heavy positions in AI hardware leaders often bottoms out earlier than retail investor sentiment.US dollar liquidity is locally concentrated rather than fully spreading—this is the true structure of the current market
If BTC does not see a trend with increased volume, is the local rise in the altcoin merely a liquidity trap in the bull-bear game?
The original article points out market phenomena observed by the Vietnamese community: funds are concentrated in a few stocks such as BTC, JELLYJELLY, OPG, SLX, LAB, BSB, ALLO, CHIP, while tokens like BEAT, EDGE, COAI, TRUMP, and RAVE are weakening. ETH attracted institutional interest, SOL maintained high beta, TAO and WLD led the AI sector, HYPE reflected risk appetite, and DOGE and ZEC represented retail sentiment. The core judgment is: this is not a comprehensive breakthrough, but a structured flow of funds.
From the perspective of derivatives positioning, there is a key divergence in the current market. If BTC's funding rate remains moderate (0.005%-0.01%) and the basis remains positive without significant expansion, it indicates that leveraged bulls are not overcrowded, and local gains are more likely to be driven by spot buying rather than derivatives speculation. Conversely, if the BTC funding rate suddenly surges above 0.05% and the basis widens, it suggests the futures market is overly optimistic and short-term squeeze risk increases.
Cross-market transmission path: BTC serves as a cornerstone of liquidity, with stable or moderate price increases providing a safety cushion for ETH and SOL. If ETH continues to receive institutional buying, it could drive rotation in DeFi and L2 tokens; SOL's high beta characteristics mean that if BTC pulls back, SOL's decline could be amplified. Altcoin differentiation is an inevitable result of insufficient liquidity—funds can only support a few narratives (such as AI tracks like TAO/WLD), rather than a broad market rally.
Bullish path: If BTC holds above the current range and ETH breaks through key resistance, funds may spill over from BTC/ETH to AI or DeFi leaders, forming localized rotation. The condition is: BTC funding rates remain low, and spot trading volume continues to expand.
Bearish risk: If BTC suddenly breaks below support and the basis turns negative, all altcoins will face liquidity withdrawal, and local gains may see even greater declines. Trigger conditions include: macro events (such as hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve) or large on-chain selling pressure.
Conclusion: The current market is characterized by structured liquidity concentration, not a trend reversal. The core tracking indicators are changes in BTC's funding rate and basis, and whether ETH can become a new anchor for capital. If BTC derivatives indicators remain neutral, local AI and DeFi stocks may continue to diverge; If the indicator overheats or BTC breaks down, be alert to the risk of a concurrent downtrend.
Risk Warning: The above analysis is based on publicly available data and derivative structures, and does not constitute a basis for investment decisions. $BTC $ETH $SOL🚨 The market is green—but that doesn't automatically mean fresh money is flooding in. That's an important distinction many traders overlook. Prices are moving higher, but participation still appears selective. Rather than seeing broad-based buying across the market, capital seems concentrated in a relatively small group of assets while many altcoins continue to lag. Open interest has cooled while trading volume remains relatively stable. That can suggest traders are becoming more selective instCurrently, Meta's market is extremely divided. On one side is a steady, steady advertising cash flow, making it a top-tier "money printer" in the tech industry; On the other hand, the continuously expanding AI infrastructure investment and the long-term loss-making metaverse business have created a massive "money-burning black hole." The Q2 earnings report on July 29 will directly determine whether Meta's advertising cash flow can continue to cover AI expansion costs, thereby determining the valuation center for the next six months. We can use three sets of core data to understand Meta's current full pricing contradictions. I. Three Core Data Sets to See Through Meta's Pricing Paradox 1. Revenue: A Super Solid Cash Base The market unanimously expects Meta's Q2 revenue to be close to $60 billion, with a range of $58-61 billion, a year-on-year growth rate of 27%. Core fundamentals have not weakened at all: • Daily active users across all product lines exceed 3.56 billion • Ad impressions +19% year-on-year • Advertising unit price +12% year-on-year Both volume and price have risen, combined with AI algorithms continuously optimizing campaign precision. The advertising business has not only not peaked but is accelerating expansion, with quarterly profit quality remaining top-notch. 2. Expenditure: Exponentially rising AI costs Meta has raised its full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance again, raising the upper limit to $145 billion, with a range of $125–145 billion. The contrast is shocking: • Full-year 2025 actual CAPEX: $72.2 billion • 2026 expected CAPEX center: $135 billion Capital expenditure over one yearShipping disruptions are driving up crude oil prices and transportation costs, while oil companies' profit gains are beginning to rise alongside inflation, policy pressures, and demand disruption. On July 23, $BZ Brent crude rose about 7% in a single day, settling at $100.69 per barrel; $CL WTI rose 6.2% to $92.19. The attack on a Red Sea oil tanker, increased risks to passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and market concerns about further disruptions in Middle Eastern exports have all pushed Brent back above $100. Prices fell the next day, but the weekly gains remained significant, indicating that the crude oil market is trading on an unresolved shipping risk rather than a typical inventory fluctuation. For $XOM, ExxonMobil, and $CVX, this is clearly a positive sign for Chevron. Rising crude oil prices will expand profits per barrel from low-cost production, improving operating cash flow, dividend coverage, and buyback capabilities. The problem is that the safety of oil stocks has never been determined solely by quarterly profits. If the $100 price comes from strong demand, companies can profit from high output, high utilization, and a relatively stable macro environment. If oil prices come from war, blockades, or transportation disruptions, companies gain high-risk cash flow: prices may rise rapidly or retreat quickly as the situation eases; High oil prices also push up inflation, interest rates, and downside risks, lowering the valuation multiples the market is willing to assign to energy companies. The Middle East really doesn't even change the script.
The US military stayed for two nights without bombing, and Iran immediately said, 'Alright, fine, I'll take a break too.' Then, six ships were blocked in one day in the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices suddenly soared to $100.
Once oil prices rise, the big brother of inflation can't sit still, and the Fed is about to put on the old act of "considering raising interest rates." Every time they speak, the crypto market immediately kneels in respect. $BTC This month, this script has killed me several times.
But if you say it's pure negative news, that's not true. Every time something happens in the Middle East, someone always rushes to buy BTC for safe haven. Gold is too heavy to move, but Bitcoin can be obtained with just two clicks. At times like this, it really comes in handy.
Goldman Sachs pushed the Nikkei target price to 4500, indicating that big money is still rushing into risk assets and hasn't left. This wave of oil prices is a short-term shake, but in the medium term, they should recover or recover.
So today's summary is one sentence: Middle East oil bullish BTC, geopolitical backing BTC.
$BTC $ETH #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress On July 26, I'll summarize this week, focusing on 'prices have stabilized, but the buying sentiment hasn't truly returned.'
CoinGecko showed around 19:33 that the total market capitalization was about $2.29 trillion, up about 0.85% in 24 hours, with BTC's share still around 56.46%; During the same period, OKX's BTC was about $64,502, ETH about $1,887, and CoinGecko's $64,457/$1,885 was close to the same period. The large coins haven't broken down, but it doesn't look like a full-scale aggressive sell-off.
On-chain liquidity is even more worth watching. DefiLlama during the same period showed that USD stablecoin supply was about $309.66 billion, an increase of about $1.09 billion from a week earlier; However, DEX 24-hour turnover was about $4.58 billion, and over 7 days, about $43.27 billion, with a weekly change of -1.53%. The capital base has been repaired, but trading intent has not heated up in tandem.
Next week, I'll focus on two things: whether BTC can turn the 64,000-65,000 range into support, and whether stablecoin growth will be further reflected in DEXs, lending, and mainstream coin transactions. Do you think this is more like a healthy consolidation or a wait-and-see period after a rebound? Next week, will you first watch for a BTC breakout, or will on-chain trading volume pick up?
#BTC #ETH #Crypto市場友友们，今天Meme币集体上涨，SHIB以超35%的涨幅领跑，PEPE涨约9.6%，DOGE涨约5.8%。梳理下来，主要是这几点原因： SHIB带头引爆，资金集中涌入，SHIB今天单日市值激增约10亿美元，主要靠两股力量：一是韩国Upbit交易所的散户买盘凶猛，SHIB/KRW交易对占全球交易量超10%；二是有大户从币安一次性提走301.8亿枚SHIB，巨鲸进场直接点燃了市场情绪。 比特币撑住场面，风险偏好扩散 比特币稳稳守在64,000美元上方，加上特朗普暂停对伊空袭的消息提振了市场情绪，资金开始从大盘币轮动到弹性更高的Meme板块。 马斯克又出来带节奏 马斯克转发了一条X平台Logo相关的推文，DOGE应声涨超5%，部分时段甚至跳涨超10%。“马式喊单”的老剧本一上演，市场立马有了反应。 衍生品杠杆火上浇油 DOGE的未平仓合约本周涨了7%以上，SHIB更夸张，24小时内飙升60%。杠杆资金集中涌入，短期把涨幅进一步放大。 不过也得提醒一句：这种由杠杆和情绪驱动的上涨来得快，去得也可能更快。一旦比特币撑不住64,000美元，Meme币的回调可能也很猛烈！ $SHIB $DOGE $Brothers, the Meme track exploded today. SHIB on Sunday surged from below $0.0000042 directly up to $0.0000057, a single-day increase of about 36%. Market cap surged by about $1 billion in one day, reaching approximately $3.4 billion in total. The 24-hour trading volume approached $380 million, hitting a multi-month high. But strangely—there was no fundamental catalyst. Shibarium L2 did not release any announcements, and the core developer Shytoshi Kusama has been silent on X for 74 days. This surge has nothing to do with the project itself. The core driver of the surge: Korean retail investors are frantically buying. The clearest driver of this surge comes from South Korea. Data shows that the SHIB/KRW trading pair on Upbit had a turnover of about $62 million, accounting for more than 10% of global SHIB trading volume, making it the largest single trading market worldwide. Moreover, this trading pair's price has a slight premium compared to Binance and other USD platforms. The increase shows a "two-stage" advance—starting with a wave on Saturday night, followed by about 9 hours of sideways movement, then another surge during the Asian morning session. This pattern closely matches the typical behavior of Korean retail funds driving high-volatility assets. On-chain signals also support this: whale awakening, burn rate soaring, and exchange supply tightening. During the rise, positive on-chain signals appeared: Whale return: a whale wallet dormant for about 6 months was activated, spending about $125,000 to buy over 30 billion SHIB. Although a single buy order cannot guarantee sustained upward momentumThe most interesting thing about this open letter isn't its content, but the list of joint names—NVIDIA initiates, Musk supports it, OpenAI's CEO expresses "welcome" it, and competitors appear together on the same topic, which is almost unprecedented in the AI industry.
Why are chip manufacturers the most steadfast promoters of open source? The business logic is one thing: the more open the model→ the more dispersed the deployment→ the wider the distribution of computing power demand→ the better the business of selling shovels. Closed-source model training is concentrated in the hands of major companies, and inference needs are also concentrated; Open-source weight means every enterprise and every server may run models, and computing power needs shift from "a few major clients" to "countless long-tail clients." Jensen Huang is not endorsing idealism, but expanding the total access to the GPU market.
Another layer is geopolitical anxiety: the new model on the dark side of the moon previously triggered a sell-off in U.S. chip stocks, proving that catching up in open source is not a theoretical threat. Rather than letting China's open-source ecosystem define standards, it would be better for the U.S. to lead the open-path itself—this credit phrase is "support for open source," but its underlying tone is "competing for dominance in AI technology routes."
The observation point is clear: policy statements. If open weighting becomes the official U.S. approach, the computing power narrative will undergo a new round of revaluation—distributed deployment demand is a portion of Nvidia's valuation that has not yet been fully priced in.
#黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信, it has received endorsement from industry collectives LAB Token (The Professor) Complete Market Analysis (2026.07.26)
1. Current Status of Market Foundation
1. Price and Decline
The all-time high was $27.48, the current price is about $0.15, and the highest point has plummeted 99.4%, nearly reaching zero;
The 24-hour continuous decline has led to shrinking trading volume, persistent liquidity drying up, very weak buying support, and only occasional short-term speculative capital surges.
2. Chip cost structure
In the past two months, the average holding cost for retail investors entering the market was $3.33, with over 94% trapped in deep losses;
The team's early private equity costs were only $0.025. Even after a 99% plunge, internal shares still had more than ten times unrealized profit, ready to be sold at any time without limit.
3. On-chain Chip Concentration (Core Deadly Negative Factors)
The top seven whale wallets control 84% of the total circulating tokens, while project-related entities still hold 81.5 million tokens that have not been sold. Internal tokens are highly controlled, with no dispersed tokens supporting the long-term market.
2. The core hard negative factors that have long suppressed the token price
1. The project team and market makers have already completed large-scale cash-out and absconded
On-chain tracking confirmed that the team's linked wallet received 196 million LAB in April ahead of schedule, and in July, a massive sell-off triggered a cliff-like crash;
Simply burning a small amount of 10 million tokens for superficial stability maintenance cannot offset the massive internal selling pressure, market confidence has completely collapsed, and the project's narrative has completely failed.
2. Massive unlocking selling pressure is about to arrive (August 14)
One month later, 282 million tokens will be unlocked at once, accounting for 28% of the total supply. The tokens will be unlocked at low cost from the team and early investors, creating massive selling pressure and further driving prices down.
3. The fundamentals have completely lost support
The project's narrative of AI trading terminals collapsed, with on-chain user and platform trading volumes continuously dropping to zero, and the fee buyback and burn mechanism had almost no real deflationary effect, with no real business demand supporting the token price;
New tokens in the same AI sector continue to divert funds, and market funds have completely abandoned LAB.
4. No new capital, new market makers willing to enter
- Old market makers have already cashed out at high levels, holding only unlimited low-cost chips, only continuing to sell without protecting the market;
- New hot money and large funds will not choose highly concentrated chips, about to unlock large amounts, and retail investors are deeply trapped in the rebound altcoins. Rallies offer no profit potential and must bear massive trapped demand.
5. Liquidity continues to dry up, posing a risk of delisting
Market capitalization shrank from a peak of $14 billion to less than $50 million. After a deep crash, exchange liquidity kept shrinking, and after a prolonged slump, there was a possibility of permanent delisting of trading pairs. Once a delisted token could no longer trade normally, it would be completely voided.
3. The only faint positive news (completely unable to reverse the downtrend)
1. Short-term technical overselling, occasionally a few minutes of pulsed small rebounds, but the rebound is not sustainable. After a surge, a new round of sell-offs immediately follows;
2. The project has a small amount of buyback and burning, so the scale is extremely small and insufficient to hedge against internal unlocking and whale selling pressure. It can only temporarily slow the decline and cannot reverse the trend.
4. Three Future Market Scenario Simulations (1-4 Week Cycle)
1. Negative decline to zero (90% highest probability)
The price continued to decline in the $0.1~$0.2 range. After a large unlock on August 14, it accelerated its decline, gradually approaching zero, losing liquidity for a long time and becoming an air coin.
Trigger conditions: Continuous whale selling, unlocked chips for concentrated selling, no positive catalyst, and the overall market weakening in tantalization.
2. Short-term pulse rebound (9% probability)
Short-term speculative capital rallied the market, briefly rebounding to the $0.3~0.5 range, with no new capital taking over. The rebound quickly fell back after 1~2 days, representing a window for trapped investors to exit and not a market reversal.
Trigger conditions: Bitcoin surges sharply, the crypto market is in full mad bull sentiment, and short-term speculation by minimal funds.
3. Extremely minor repair (1% extremely low probability)
Only when a project introduces substantial benefits (such as large-scale burns of all team assets, brand-new business launches, and large institutions moving in) can sustained rebound be possible; the probability of this happening in reality is extremely low.
5. Core Risk Summary
1. Extremely high risk of zeroing: Down nearly 99%, with unlimited internal pressure on low-cost chips, a large unlock imminent, and the only long-term path is a shadowy decline;
2. There is no long-term "takeoff" market: institutional investors have already cashed out and exited, with no main funds to support the bottom, and retail investors grouping together cannot drive prices up sustainably;
3. Fatal risks in contracts: poor liquidity, regular insertion and deep slippage, and the risk of instant liquidation when leveraged;
4. Domestic legal risks: Any domestic channel transactions are not protected by law, and losses in funds cannot be enforced.1. Real-time board scanning 🖥️
$SOL Current price is about $74.33, with a 24-hour increase of about 0.50%. After rebounding from the June low of $62 to the $73-75 range, the price entered a sideways consolidation phase. The 24-hour trading range is compressed into an extremely narrow range of $73.5–$76.3, with an amplitude of only about $2.8—the most notable feature of low-energy narrow swings is currently the most prominent feature.
In terms of contracts, open interest is about $669 million, with retail long positions accounting for 73.6%, top traders long for 75.2%, and leverage exceeding 3.0. The funding rate fluctuated between -0.0013% and +0.0068%, with a significant divergence between bulls and bears.
2. Key Support and Resistance Levels 📊
🛡️ Support Level (Downward Defense Line):
First support: $74.00-$74.13 — The 50-day SMA coincides with the recent accumulation area
Second support: $73.00-$73.48 — 15-minute candlestick bottom and lower Bollinger Bands
Third support: $72.56-$72.91 — 4-hour lower Bollinger Band and strong support
Ultimate defense: $68.00 — stronger structural support
🚧 Resistance Level (Upward Resistance):
First Resistance: $74.70 — 15-minute candlestick rebound high, short-term selling pressure concentrated
Second resistance: $75.19-$75.65 — 4-hour Bollinger Band middle band and EMA50 resistance zone
Third Resistance: $76.18-$76.70 — 7-day and 20-day SMA, short-term moving average "ceiling"
Fourth Resistance: $78.00 — The middle band of the Bollinger Bands acts as resistance; a breakout would open upside space
3. On-chain Market Makers and Chip Movements 🐋
📊 Crowded bulls but lacking confidence — both retail and top traders hold over 73% of their long positions, which is theoretically extremely long. However, open interest fell 0.83% in the past 24 hours—bulls are reducing rather than increasing, and "crowded but lacking confidence" is a typical weak signal.
📉 Order flow is severely bearish — the Bid/Ask Ratio is only 0.79-0.806. Buy order depth is only 1.76% higher than sell orders, and sell orders are systematically digesting all long positions.
⚠️ Bullish Stampede Risk — If the $73.93 support level is breached, the $669 million long position could trigger a chain stop loss. The price falling toward $72-73 will mainly be driven by bulls being forced to unwind, rather than aggressive bear suppression.
💧 There is no sign of accumulation in the spot market—Binance's spot trading volume is only about $50.8 million, with extremely low activity and no genuine buying.
4. Favorable factors ✅
🌐 Active addresses lead by a wide margin — Solana recorded 18 million active addresses last week, surpassing BNB Chain, TRON, Bitcoin, and Ethereum — network activity is the absolute industry leader.
🏦 TVL remains stable at $5 billion — Solana's total value locked is stable at about $5 billion, indicating a solid ecosystem fundamentals.
📈 RSI Breaks Out of Oversold — RSI rebounded from 30 to around 50, completing a reversal from oversold to neutral.
📐 Long-term cup-and-handle pattern — Analyst CryptoCurb identified a potential multi-year cup-and-handle pattern on the weekly chart, and if a breakout is confirmed, it could theoretically be seen above $1,000.
5. Negative factors ❌
📉 The technical structure is generally bearish — prices are below the 7-day SMA (76.18), 20-day SMA (76.70), and 200-day SMA (88.08). The MACD histogram has zeroed, signal lines intersected, and the RSI is only 46, indicating buyer hesitation. This is not a consolidation, but rather a downward trend underway.
🔓 The 200-day SMA gap is huge—the 200-day moving average is at $88.08, more than 17% higher than the current price, and the structural damage has not been repaired.
🏛️ Macroeconomic headwinds — delays in the Clarity Act and geopolitical tensions pose negative factors. Overall, market risk appetite is subdued.
⚖️ The algorithmic forecast is extremely conservative—CoinGecko predicts only a 2.3% chance that $SOL will reach $90 by the end of July—the market has almost zero confidence in the short-term optimistic narrative.
6. On-chain Analyst Comprehensive Evaluation 🧠
SOL is currently at the sharpest stage of bullish and bearish tensions—18 million active addresses and $5 billion TVL point to ecosystem prosperity, but the technical bias is broadly bearish, order flow is severely imbalanced, and the bulls are crowded but lack confidence, indicating short-term pressure.
The core game range is between $73.5 and $76.3. A breakout above 76.70 with increased volume could see a price of 78 or even 82; a decline below 73.48 could trigger a $669 million bullish stamp, targeting 72.56-72.91 or even 68.
🧠 The biggest warning signal: 73.6% of retail investors and 75.2% of smart money are going long, but the order flow is systematically biased—someone is using high leverage from the bulls for targeted harvesting. This divergence of "more retail investors, more large players, but stronger selling" often ends with bulls being forced to close their positions.
It is recommended to closely watch three signals: 1) Whether the Bid/Ask Ratio has rebounded above 0.9 (buyers have regained control of the market); 2) Whether the $74 support has been broken down on high volume (trigger for a bullish stamp); 3) Whether spot trading volume has significantly increased (evidence of genuine buying return).
Overall, it is biased neutral to bearish — ecosystem data is impressive, but short-term trading structure is poor. If 73.5 is not broken, it will fluctuate; if 73.5 falls, it will turn bearish.
$SOL #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Yesterday I said, "Whether the tankers dare to go is more honest than whether both sides dare to fight." Today, the script is here: Trump rejected the strike plan for the first time for 13 consecutive days, the Omani delegation arrived in Tehran to discuss air traffic arrangements, and oil prices fell by 2.5% shortly after. The market's pricing logic shifted in an instant from "disruption risk" to "mitigating premium withdrawal."
But note the nature of this pause: it is simply "not approved on the day," not a ceasefire agreement; Trump told French media, "If we don't get 100%, we'll resume full-scale war," and the Joint Chiefs Chairman privately warned that air defense ammunition stockpiles are tight—the latter may actually be the real constraint for the pause. Unable to win and unwilling to fight are two different stories for the market.
The core pricing now revolves around one thing: whether the Oman-Iran agreement will be implemented this weekend, and whether Trump will accept it. Between verbal easing and written navigation arrangements, the entire hundred-yuan threshold is about whether to stay or leave. My judgment remains unchanged: whether the 100 yuan is at the top of the pulse or the bottom of the range, according to General Aviation Data. The data hasn't come back yet, and the price is still at the table.
Operationally: Chasing easing is as risky as betting on escalation. In this type of market, driven by a single event, position management is more valuable than direction judgment.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress 欧洲加密监管的高门槛，可能催生新一轮行业并购潮。
英国 FCA 拟将客户资产规则（CASS）框架应用于加密公司——要求客户加密资产与公司资金隔离托管，并对私钥管理和对账引入专项操作要求。行业律师指出，这套规则对传统金融机构是已有能力，对加密原生公司则是从零建合规体系。
目前欧洲不到 20% 的银行提供加密服务。Sygnum 欧洲 CEO 认为市场严重供给不足。真正的变化不在 MiCA 本身，而在它将加密公司拉进与传统金融同等的合规赛道。赛道越窄，能跑的人越少。
一个合理推演：加密创业公司与其独自扛合规成本，更可能选择被已持牌的传统机构收购。不是监管扼杀创新，而是监管加速行业从草莽走向并购整合的转折。The Bitcoin financial reserve model is undergoing a collective retreat.
Sequans sold 1,025 BTC to repay convertible bonds and plans to sell the remaining 658 BTC. Nakamoto's stock price has dropped 99% since the SPAC, with nearly 70% of holdings staked to Kraken loans. Mining companies Bitdeer and MARA are also selling coins to repay debts, shifting computing power resources to AI data centers. Even Strategy recently sold about 3,620 BTC to replenish its dollar reserves.
The common feature of this round of exit is not bearish on Bitcoin, but rather that the balance sheet is failing. The key to the DAT model lies in the linkage between stock and crypto: when the stock price rises, it can be used for low-cost financing to buy coins; when the price crashes, creditors pursue it, stake liquidation, and are forced to sell coins—three layers of pressure combined.
The market loves to tell stories. But just because a strategy can withstand it doesn't mean the imitator can handle it. When the coins bought with borrowed money turn into negative assets in a bear market, it's not a matter of belief, but of accounting.Expectations for the implementation of the CLARITY Act continue to cool, making it nearly impossible to vote before the August recess. Trump's over $1.4 billion in crypto gains has sparked new political controversy. Democrats argue that current ethical regulation has loopholes, and that the bill still has significant disagreements over enforcement authority, indirect shareholding regulation, and statute of limitations.
The banking industry is also concerned that stablecoin-related yield clauses could cause deposit outflows, continuing to put pressure on the legislative body. In fact, the failure to pass this year's bill may not necessarily be a bad thing. The core market issue right now is not regulation, but overall liquidity shortages. The Federal Reserve is maintaining high interest rates, and the global liquidity environment is not relaxed. Even if the bill was recently implemented, it is difficult for a single bill alone to spark a new bull market.
When the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle next year and liquidity recovers, the bill will be officially implemented. With regulatory certainty combined with a loose liquidity environment, institutions will be more willing to enter the market, which will truly bring stronger upward momentum to the crypto market. #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 BitMart gave you six months to withdraw, but if there are real assets inside, it's best not to treat the "deadline" as something you can wait your time.
This exchange, which has been operating for about nine years, has announced its closure: new user registrations and deposits have stopped, and contract accounts are gradually switching to a reduced position mode; Spot trading, contract trading, and other services will end on August 26, and the platform is scheduled to cease operations fully on January 31, 2027. After the announcement, the platform token BMX dropped about 58% within 24 hours.
Half a year seems comfortable, but the further you go, the more uncertainties become. You may encounter concentrated withdrawals, identity verification supplements, some network suspensions, unsuitable for unpopular coins, and customer service responses may slow down as business contracts. Showing a balance in your account does not mean you can transfer it out smoothly at any time.
If there are still assets left on BitMart, the processing order can be simpler:
First, check and cancel order placements, wealth management, and automated strategies, then close leverage and contract positions according to platform rules; Confirm the withdrawal networks supported by each coin, first test the address and arrival status with a small amount, and after confirming everything is correct, transfer out in batches. For coins whose trading is already restricted, don't wait to exchange for USDT. If you can request via a normal network, it's safer to transfer directly to a wallet or platform that supports that currency. After withdrawal, save all your orders, balance, deposit, and withdrawal records.
BMX's nearly 60% drop does not naturally create a "bottom-fishing opportunity." The platform token's fee discounts, buyback expectations, and ecosystem uses all depend on the exchange to continue operating. Once the trading platform enters the shutdown process, these value bases will shrink together, and a significant price drop does not prove it is cheap.
This shutdown at least reminds one thing: the withdrawal deadline set by centralized exchanges is the latest processing time, not the optimal processing time. When you can exit proactively, there's no need to bet your funds on the platform's operational status in the last few months.