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$BARD / USDT $BARD is pulling back. If support holds, a controlled bounce can build. Support: 0.118–0.122 EP: 0.122–0.124 TP1: 0.128 TP2: 0.134 TP3: 0.143 SL: 0.115 90 days after the BTC panic sell-off, the history I saw Panic selling happens every day Every major BTC drop has been accompanied by three structural signals. Lever cleaning is complete. Futures positions down 29%, with high leverage forced liquidation. Realized losses of $3.5 billion. Losses from selling chips are absorbed by the market. Miner surrender is underway. The cash cost of the S19 series mining machines is 60,000, approaching the shutdown price. I've been watching these three indicators for six years. Portfolio allocation is always more important than judging individual targets. 📌 Break down panic into several verifiable questions The first question is: who is selling: short-term speculators, miners, funds, or long-term holders? The second question is whether selling pressure has been absorbed by spot buyers. The third question is whether trading volume and volatility have started to converge after the leverage cleanup. Only by separating these three questions can you avoid mistaking emotions for trends. 🧭 How will I track them? I will record the exchange net inflows, open interest, spot trading volume, and the direction of long-term holder supply, then compare it with price reactions. If prices fall but selling pressure gradually eases, the market may enter a consolidation phase; If the price rebounds but leverage quickly rebuilds, secondary liquidations should still be guarded against. ⚠️ Risk reminders The fear index can only describe emotions and cannot predict the next candlestick. Historical returns do not guarantee repeats; any phased plan must first ensure you can handle the worst. 🎯 The final execution framework Don't chase short positions during sharp drops, nor go all-in just because of a single rebound. Divide funds into observation holds, confirmation holds, and cash reserves, and gradually adjust them once signals improve. I'll break this topic down into three layers. The first layer is data that can be directly observed. First, record values, time, and direction, avoiding jumping to conclusions based on just one screenshot; The second layer is how the market reacts: data improves but prices remain unchanged, and weakening data but prices still rise—the meaning is completely different; The third layer is your own operations: first write down your maximum tolerable loss, then decide whether to adjust your position. This sequence may seem slow, but it helps reduce being carried away by a single headline. For me, the seller structure, leveraged liquidation, and spot acceptance should be compared on the same table. Each update only changes the parts with new evidence; a single change in number cannot overturn the entire judgment. If the three observation directions contradict each other, I would downgrade the conclusion to 'waiting for confirmation' rather than forcing a bullish or bearish story. The most easily overlooked cost in the market is determining it too early and then refusing to admit that the assumption has failed. In practice, I first use observation positions to test and wait until at least two of the trading volume, price, and fundamentals are aligned in the same direction, then consider increasing exposure; If volatility increases or liquidity thins, reduce your position first. Any backtesting, historical cases, or KOL perspectives can only be used to establish hypotheses and cannot replace current risk checks. This article is my research notes, not buy or sell orders that guarantee profits. In my next update, I will re-examine four things: whether the message is still valid, whether the price reaction has been confirmed, whether liquidity is sufficient to execute, and whether the original risk assumptions have been broken. If it's just a rise in social media buzz without seeing trading volume or capital support, I treat it as a signal to watch; If the data direction changes, the original script will be updated accordingly, rather than holding it for the sake of saving face. The advantage of this approach is that it separates "perception" from "action." Opinions can retain multiple possibilities, but actions must have clear triggering conditions. For short-term trading, I set a time limit; For medium- to long-term allocations, I will check fundamentals and capital costs. No matter the final outcome, record the reasons for entry, exit, and actual slippage, so that next time you'll have real material for improvement. If sources conflict with each other, I will mark the conflict first and wait for confirmation in the original announcement or the next time, rather than using social media sentiment as evidence. This also means that sometimes the best strategy is to wait without a position, because not trading itself is also a way to manage uncertainty.看到这张截图里的收益率曲线，心里其实挺复杂的。总战绩 +78.86%，90天做到了 +78.92%，但最近7天回撤了 -4.20%。那个叫“背带裤里藏阿坤”的账户名，带着点自嘲和玩世不恭，和下方那条陡峭后又回落的曲线形成了强烈反差。让我静下心来，对着这条曲线，写点真实的感悟。 --- 盯着账户里那个刺眼的 -4.20%，我关掉了K线图，给自己倒了杯水。屏幕上红绿跳动的数字安静下来后，我才发现自己的后背早已僵硬——原来过去的几小时，我一直保持着蜷缩的姿势，像只受惊的刺猬。这就是交易员的常态：在贪婪与恐惧的钢丝上跳舞，还以为自己在掌控全局。翻看过去90天的曲线，+78.92% 的收益率像一座陡峭的山峰。那段时间，市场对我格外宽容，每一次抄底都踩在转折点上，每一次逃顶都精准得像有内幕消息。我开始相信自己真的“悟道”了，在朋友圈晒截图，在群里指点江山，甚至幻想着明年此时已经财务自由。现在回头看，那不是我的水平有多高，而是市场在教一个新手最昂贵的课程——它先让你赢，再让你输掉更多。 7日回撤 -4.20% 的数据，在旁人看来或许不算什么，但只有我知道这4个点是怎么来的。是对某个消息面的过度解读，是不肯止损的侥幸心理，是盈利加仓后被反向行情吞噬的贪婪。曲线往下走的时候，我脑子里的“理性”和“情绪”像两个拳击手在缠斗：一个说“纪律止损”，另一个说“马上反弹了”。结果情绪每次都赢，赢了之后又把我推向更深的亏损。 “背带裤里藏阿坤”——当初起这名字时，带着点玩世不恭的戏谑。我把自己伪装成一个不在乎输赢的“赌徒”，仿佛只要姿态够潇洒，亏损就伤害不到我。可深夜里盯着那条持续向下的曲线时，我发现自己根本潇洒不起来。那些被市场击穿的止损单，那些违背交易系统的随手单，像一面面镜子照出了我内心最真实的模样：一个渴望暴富、害怕认错、把运气当实力的普通人。真正的顿悟发生在昨天。当价格触及我预设的止损线时，我条件反射地又想撤销订单。但那一瞬间，我突然问自己：如果这不是我的账户，如果这是一笔跟单交易，我会怎么操作？答案清晰得可怕——我会毫不犹豫地止损。原来，我和“合格交易员”之间最大的鸿沟，不是技术分析的水平，而是对待自己账户时那份无法割舍的“所有权幻觉”。我们总觉得自己比市场聪明，总觉得自己的持仓应该被特殊对待。现在的我开始做一件很傻的事：每次开单前，在便签上写下这笔交易的理由和止损位，然后拍照保存。亏损时，翻出开仓时的记录，看自己当初的判断错在哪里。慢慢地，我发现亏损不再那么可怕了——它们变成了一个个具体的决策失误，而不是对我个人能力的全盘否定。那条收益率曲线也在告诉我：一个真正成熟的交易者，关注的不是曲线有多陡峭，而是回撤时自己能否保持同样的冷静和纪律。 78.86%的总收益和 -4.20% 的近期回撤，本质上是同一枚硬币的两面——前面是市场给的运气，后面是必须还的认知税。而我希望，下一篇心得里能写的是：我终于学会了在盈利时保持敬畏，在亏损时保持平静。至于那条曲线会走向哪里，我已经不那么执着了——因为真正重要的从来都不是曲线本身，而是曲线背后那个越来越清醒的自己。🚨 MYSTERIOUS WHALE ACCUMULATES $50M IN $ETH A major Ethereum whale has made a significant move. According to Lookonchain, three newly created wallets—believed to be controlled by the same entity—spent 50.04 million $DAI to acquire 25,425 $ETH over the past two hours. 📊 Purchase Details: 🐋 Accumulated: 25,425 $ETH 💰 Total Value: ~$50.04M 📍 Average Entry Price: $1,968 Large whale accumulation often attracts market attention, especially when it occurs through fresh wallets, as it may signal growing confidence from high-capital investors. While one transaction doesn't determine market direction, moves of this size are worth monitoring as part of the broader on-chain picture. #CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch $ETH $BTC $SHIB Brothers, here's a signal worth pondering. Michael Saylor's Strategy has just completed its first-ever STRC preferred share repurchase. Price: $86.52. Quantity: 288,930 shares. Amount: $25 million. The real highlight of this buyback is not the amount, but the strategy. STRC is a preferred stock issued by Strategy, with a face value of $100 and an annualized dividend of 12%. But the market was not buying it—STRC once dropped to $71 and hovered around $80 for a long time. Saylor's strategy is simple: buy back at $85, aiming to push it back to $100. What kind of game is this? First, buy at $85, target $100—this gives the market a clear "value anchor." Cantor Fitzgerald analysts have long pointed out that restoring STRC to face value is key for Strategy to restart its Bitcoin buying engine. Discounted trading of preferred shares means the market lacks confidence in Strategy's financing capabilities. Pulling STRC back to $100 means reopening financing channels. Second, they still have $975 million worth of ammunition in hand. This $25 million is just the appetizer. Strategy's preferred share buyback program has a total authorized $1 billion, with $975 million remaining as is. Saylor clearly stated: when STRC's price falls below $100, it will continue to buy back; The price is farther from $100 Today I saw a news story: a 26-year-old trader in Hong Kong secretly diverted company funds over the past six months to speculate twice as much as SK Hynix, using 50 million HKD in margin financing and leverage. After the recent stock price crash, the company's internal audit discovered this and temporarily lost 150 million HKD. Although such embezzlement is rare, it does happen from time to time. After watching this incident, we feel that this trader's timing skills are indeed poor. 7709 peaked near 193 at the end of June and closed at 52 on July 20. If you raised 50 million yuan at a 1:3 leverage, buying at the highest point and then the lowest point, you would lose exactly 150 million yuan. This round of global tech sentiment has dropped very quickly, and tech stocks have been volatile. Whether in South Korea, Hong Kong, or A-shares, there have been many forced liquidations. We've also been discussing the market situation with friends recently. From a macro perspective, this round of oil price fluctuations is completely opposite to the equity market. Since July, oil prices have been rising steadily, with Brent crude rising from 70 to 100, putting enormous pressure on the market. This weekend saw a significant turnaround, with the change still in Dongwang. After more than ten days of fighting, Dongwang said to pause airstrikes. This change was not particularly unexpected. Besides fighting over the Strait of Hormuz, Dongwang now focused more on winning domestic approval ratings in the United States. The midterm elections are extremely important for Dong Wang. If oil prices remain high, price pressures will force voters against him. Recently, oil prices rose while equity declined, a strong correlation. Now that oil prices have started to adjust, risk appetite for equity should also be acceptable "Fiat's Shadow is a Market's Shadow" Liquidity's not rotating, it's being redirected. Five altcoins just absorbed a total of $23M in fresh capital, while most others bleed. The telltale signs of a "select few" altseason are flashing green. But beneath the surface, on-chain data reveals these new inflows are not fueled by genuine accumulation – they're a result of "rehypothecation" of existing funds. Take $ETC, now +10% after a few days of steady inflows, or $ZEC, absorbing a significant chunk of fresh capital despite its high price. Meanwhile, other top coins like $BTC, $ETH, and even the beta darling $SOL, are witnessing net outflows. The data tells us that only a select handful of alts are pulling liquidity from the broader market. When the big boys are shorting $BTC, adding margin to the pain, while buying more $ZEC or $ETC – do you know who's getting squeezed? It's the retail player who's still chasing "altseason." Don't be that one.In October 2025, Bitcoin entered a downward channel after peaking at around $126,000. Looking back, there aren't many who openly short or take action near the top. And @CryptoApprenti1 and @KillaXBT are exactly two of them. One is Dr. Hash "Wesley," a top player in China with a poker background; The other is Killa, a quantitative trader from the English-speaking world. They had used different language and styles to send the same warning to the market almost simultaneously: the top has arrived, and the decline is imminent. However, by July 2026, their positions have completely diverged. On one side is CryptoApprenti1's repeated emphasis on the "eternal bear market"—he believes the real bloodbath is just beginning, with exchange chain failures, leverage clearing, and human despair still far from being in place. Bullish views are wrong, bearish views are correct. Wesley's stance carries a distinct "survivor filter." He had previously shorted Bitcoin from a high in the previous round, experiencing a complete crash from $60,000 to over $10,000. For him, a bear market is not just a simple price drop, but a chain reaction of exchanges, projects, leverage, and human nature devastating layer by layer. When he sees someone start calling for a bottom, he instinctively thinks it's a "contrarian point"—the real bottom often happens when the vast majority of people are desperate or even begin to question Bitcoin itself. His "Eternal Bear Market Survival Rule" is essentially an extreme risk aversion: in the face of uncertainty, first assume the best Today (July 27), the cryptocurrency market experienced a broad rally, mainly driven by easing geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded above $65,000, Ethereum (ETH) returned to the $1,900 mark, with both rising approximately 11.6% and 24.6% respectively so far in July. However, this rebound is not on solid ground and feels more like a "breath of relief" correction: · Funding: The US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow exceeding $465 million on July 23-24, ending a streak of seven consecutive days of inflows, indicating institutions are using the rebound to reduce positions or hedge. · Key Indicator: Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score has dropped to about 0.42, well below the historical average of 1.7, indicating undervaluation but no confirmed bottom "capitulation sell-off" signal yet. · Macro Focus: The market is holding its breath awaiting the Federal Reserve's FOMC rate decision this Wednesday. Concerns over rate hikes and "higher for longer" interest rates remain the core suppressing factor for crypto assets. --- Altcoin/Meme Sector: Local Speculative Frenzy vs Overall Rising Risk Despite the market rebound, the altcoin market shows a stark contrast: · Meme Coin Hype (CATE): On the SOL chain, the Meme coin CATE surged over 230x intraday, with a market cap reaching $9.5 million. The hype originated from a new rescue kitten video released by DOGE's creator, with the community leveraging old memes to fuel speculation. However, note that this token is unofficially issued, its name authenticity unconfirmed, representing a typical event-driven community gamble with extremely high risk. · Sector Performance: Yesterday, the NFT sector led gains (+3.00%), with Meme and DeFi sectors also up 2.60% and 2.28% respectively. However, these altcoins’ liquidity is more susceptible to overall market sentiment, often experiencing larger drops when macro conditions shift. · Black Swan Incident: South Korean blockchain gaming platform WEMIX’s contract ownership was hacked, resulting in over 5.22 million tokens being minted and cross-chain transferred, causing a 24-hour price drop exceeding 16%. This reminds us that contract security risks remain severe for projects themselves. --- Risks and Summary The current market is in a complex state of "macro pressure with localized speculation," with several risk points to watch: · BitMart Exchange Anomaly: In the past 24 hours, BitMart has not processed any single withdrawal requests over $25,000, and its CEO was recently dismissed. Caution is needed regarding liquidity and operational risks at small to mid-sized exchanges. · Former "Whale" Turns Seller: MicroStrategy (now Strategy) recently sold about $218 million in Bitcoin and authorized up to $1.25 billion in future sales, breaking its "buy and hold" narrative, which has dealt a blow to market confidence. Overall, the market currently resembles a liquidity repair under high volatility. Whether the market can stabilize depends on whether ETFs can resume sustained inflows and the Federal Reserve’s next moves. As for Meme coins, CATE’s surge is an extremely speculative behavior; participation requires full readiness for total loss.#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 I am the mid-term intelligence guy. Changxin Technology was listed on the STAR Market today, with an issue price of ¥8.66, soaring 470% at the open, and a market value reaching ¥3.3 trillion, topping the A-share market. The global $DRAM oligopoly of the big three (Samsung/Hynix/Micron accounting for 90%) has been directly challenged by a domestic IDM for the first time. What I’m watching is the mid-term variable: this is not about hype, but about raising ¥57.9 billion to upgrade wafer lines and iterate DDR5/LPDDR5X. In Q1, its global market share climbed to 8%, precisely filling the general DRAM gap left by the big three shifting production to HBM. The mid-term logic is a "cycle uptrend + domestic substitution" double hit, with supply chain ties to Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent. The forecast for net profit in the first half of 2026 is over ¥50 billion, with a growth slope steeper than Micron’s in the same period. But let me pour cold water: HBM generation gap, EUV limitations, and the price drop cycle after the concentrated capacity release in 2028—three risks, none resolved. The stock price premium was maxed out on day one; don’t chase the opening price. Wait for turnover to settle and orders to be fulfilled in the equipment and materials chain (North Huachuang, Huahai Qingke) for more stability. Changxin is a milestone, not the final destination. $MU Price Performance: BTC surged one-sided intraday, with a low of 61,200 USD and a high of 65,800 USD, a 24-hour increase of 7.5%. With volume breaking through the key resistance level of 65,000 USD, BTC fully recovered losses from the previous two days, leading the crypto market to strengthen across the board. Google and Meta's Q2 earnings report revealed that AI computing power investment doubled, with free cash flow turning negative; Leading cloud providers have raised their full-year capital expenditure guidance, prompting the market to realize that AI computing power investment costs have long exceeded revenue increments, and the story of high AI growth has been disproven. Negative news erupted in the storage sector: major companies lowered their NAND flash price guidance, Samsung and SK Hynix accelerated the expansion of general-purpose NAND production lines, the market predicted storage capacity surplus in 2027, and pure flash cyclical stocks like SanDisk were directly revalued, causing the 700% increase bubble in the first half to burst in concentration. After institutions sold off high-valuation tech stocks, two types of funds diverted to BTC: (1) Safe-haven allocation: Concerned about a deep bear market in U.S. tech stocks, BTC is used as "digital gold" to hedge systemic risk in U.S. stocks; (2) Short-term speculative funds: As tech stocks weaken, funds are shifting to the more liquid and flexible crypto market to play for a short-term rebound. Previously, the market was collectively bearish, with US stocks falling in tandem, and the futures market piled up with massive short positions; After the Nasdaq opened sharply and funds reversed to buy BTC, a slight rebound triggered a chain of short stop-losses, passive buying formed a spiral upward spiral, leading to a unilateral surge. Leading BTC spot ETFs like BlackRock and Fidelity have seen net inflows for several consecutive days, shifting the allocation logic of traditional Wall Street funds Friends, today's first day of AEON new coin has been incredibly volatile! It's practically a "roller coaster" market under the AI settlement layer narrative! AEON is a blockchain project positioned as an "AI agent economic settlement layer," with the core goal of enabling users and AI agents to pay real-world merchants using digital assets. The project was led by YZi Labs in an $8 million pre-seed round, with participation from IDG Capital, HashKey Capital, Stanford Blockchain Builders Fund, and others. Currently, AEON has connected to over 50 million merchants worldwide and has partnered with BNB Chain to launch the x402 protocol. Looking at the market — AEON's spot price is around $0.083, with a 24-hour increase of 66.26%. The intraday high was $0.185 and the low was $0.05, showing extremely dramatic fluctuations. On July 27, AEON simultaneously launched spot trading on multiple exchanges including Gate, Bitget, and Hibt, and Bitget simultaneously launched a Launchpool event. Multiple CEXs listing on the same day + launchpool hype were the core drivers of this surge. But the risks should not be ignored. AEON's total token supply reached 100 billion tokens, with circulating supply currently very limited. On the first day of launch, the price rose from $0.05 to $0.185 before falling back to $0.083, with a fluctuation of over 270%, trapping those who bought at the high. The project is still in a very early stage, with token unlock rhythm and subsequent sell-offs 📊 3.75 billion in cash extends for 25 months! MSTR stops buying Bitcoin, ushering in a new phase of the "slow bear" $BTC in the crypto world MicroStrategy stopped buying Bitcoin this week, mainly due to liquidity pressure. To pay a high dividend of 12%, the company sold shares last week to cash out $525 million, with cash reserves reaching $3.75 billion, enough to cover 25 months of interest expenses. Meanwhile, 840,000 Bitcoins had a 13.9% unrealized loss, with preferred stock prices falling below par and the "issuance to buy coins" model invalidating. MSTR has authorized the sale of $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin in the future, changing from a "permanent buyer" to a "liquidity manager." The impact on the crypto world is twofold: first, the collapse of the belief in "buy only, not sell," damaging market confidence; second, institutional funds are bleeding, with MSTR halting and Bitcoin ETFs seeing a net outflow of over $4.1 billion in a single month, causing the market to lose its biggest stabilizer. This round of decline is a "slow demand decline bear market," not a black swan crash. The real signs of reversal include: MSTR net buying again, ETF inflows resume, macro liquidity improvement, and regulatory legislation implemented. Before this, the rebound may be a "dead cat jump," and holders' confidence will continue to be eroded. Bitcoin is deeply embedded in traditional finance, constrained by multiple factors such as cash flow, interest rates, and regulations. Investors need to set aside faith, take up the calculations, and respond rationally to market changes. #量子倒计时2031, BTC encryption algorithms are under pressure [Saylor clarifies STRC buyback funds can come from BTC sales, cautious about BTC corporate buying expectations] This is not a direct negative factor for BTC, but the use of corporate funds has become clearer: STRC needs to maintain trading prices and liquidity close to $100, and if necessary, raise buyback funds by selling MSTR or BTC. For the market, the focus is no longer just on whether companies will continue to buy BTC, but on whether asset allocation will temporarily shift to maintaining capital instruments. Saylor stated that the buyback funds will not be used for USD Reserve, but will be raised from other channels based on market conditions, including MSTR and BTC sales; At the same time, it pledged not to issue STRC at prices below $100. This effectively isolates USD Reserve separately and places STRC's price stability and independent demand in a clearer position. On the positive side, if STRC can maintain high liquidity, low volatility, and stable pricing, the credibility of the company's subsequent financing instruments will be stronger. It is important to note that BTC being listed as a potential source of financing only means the company retains a selling option, not that selling pressure has formed, but the market will begin to reassess the marginal strength of its "continued absorption of BTC supply." Next, it depends on whether STRC really needs to be repurchased, where the funds ultimately come from, and whether BTC holdings have changed in verifiable form. Before disclosing the actual sale, it should be understood as a capital allocation strategy adjustment, not a direct trading signal. The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.The three major U.S. stock indexes all opened higher: the Dow rose 0.9%, the Nasdaq gained 1%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.7%. The storage sector rebounded across the board—SK Hynix rose over 3%, SanDisk and Western Digital gained over 2%, and Micron and Seagate followed suit. Core catalyst: The US and Iran announced a pause in mutual military attacks, causing oil prices to plunge over 7%, and geopolitical risk premiums to rapidly fade. Panic was released, risk assets rebounded collectively, and AI chip stocks and tech giants rose simultaneously. Last Friday, the storage sector suffered a heavy blow (SanDisk fell nearly 11%, SK Hynix nearly 9%), and tonight's rebound was more a recovery in sentiment than a trend reversal—resonating with three factors: easing geopolitical risks + oil price plunge + oversold repair, a triple resonance. For the crypto market, the return of risk appetite could become a catalyst for BTC breaking through 64,000 and ETH testing 2000. Additionally, the role of crypto derivatives in weekend price discovery is noteworthy—when the US-Iran news spread, traditional markets were closed, and Hyperliquid's crude oil perpetual contracts became the weekend's pricing reference. $ETH $BTC $XSNDK #美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices sharply fell at the open. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative? Changxin's IPO shakes the market! Micron under pressure, SK Hynix hedging? Full analysis of trading strategies for the storage giants Today, Changxin Technology surged over 460% on its first day listing on the STAR Market, with its market value directly topping the A-share market! But behind this frenzy, the storage giants in the US and Korean stock markets are facing completely different situations. How should positions be adjusted? 1. Micron ($MU): Short-term pressure, beware of pullback risks Changxin mainly targets standard DRAM (DDR5/LPDDR5), which highly overlaps with Micron. With Changxin securing massive financing to accelerate expansion, Micron’s market share and pricing power in the consumer market will be directly impacted. Coupled with rumors that Apple's supply chain may shift to Changxin, Micron faces significant short-term downward pressure. It is recommended to reduce holdings on rallies and be cautious of pullback risks. 2. $SKHY SK Hynix: Core logic unchanged, still the AI computing leader Compared to Micron, SK Hynix has stronger risk resistance. Its core profit engine has shifted to HBM3E and high-end enterprise SSDs within Nvidia’s supply chain. Currently, Changxin cannot threaten SK Hynix’s top-tier HBM stacking technology, so SK Hynix’s AI core logic remains solid. If there is a market-wide sell-off pullback recently, it could be a good opportunity to buy at a low price. Summary: Changxin’s listing marks the break of the global DRAM "tripartite" pattern. The focus of upcoming trades is recommended to shift from ordinary storage targets like Micron to core assets deeply tied to AI computing like SK Hynix. #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 What is the expected value per million points after the Solana ecosystem project Onre issues its token? My conclusion: Optimistic expectation is about $333 per million points More conservatively, $130–200 per million points Derivation process as follows First, calculate the total points Using AI, segmented estimates were made based on different ranking intervals. The total points are roughly around 150 billion, with a clear concentration effect at the top; the top 50 accounts for 46% of the total points. Assumptions: Assuming 10% of the total supply is allocated for points airdrop Reference AUM and FDV ratio valuation OnRe's current AUM is about $245 million. A comparable project with a similar business structure is $RE, which currently has a TVL of about $257 million and an FDV of about $497 million, corresponding to an AUM/FDV ratio of about 0.52. Applying this ratio directly, OnRe's potential FDV could be around $500 million. Airdrop distribution rule is directly linear That is, each address's airdrop share is calculated directly based on the proportion of points it holds relative to the total network points. Therefore, based on different FDVs: FDV $200 million: about $133 per million points FDV $300 million: about $200 per million points FDV $500 million: about $333 per million points 🚨 Faith collapse warning! MSTR stopped buying Bitcoin, and the crypto industry's "permanent buyer" image completely collapsed Brothers, the MicroStrategy we've elevated to a pedestal hasn't bought coins for four weeks straight! Chairman Thaler's remark, "We need to add another color," seems calm and unfazed, but in reality, it hides a deadly intent. This is not a "break" at all, but a clear signal that MSTR is shifting from "mindless coin buying" to "living with careful calculations"! The truth behind the suspension of buying can be summed up in one word: money! To pay a hefty 12% dividend, MSTR urgently sold shares last week to cash out $525 million, raising its cash reserves to $3.75 billion, just to survive for 25 months. Even more critically, the 840,000 Bitcoins had a 13.9% unrealized loss, and both preferred shares fell below par value, completely breaking the endless cycle of "issuing shares to buy coins." It has authorized the sale of $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin in the future, transforming it from a "permanent buyer" into a "liquidity manager" for selling coins. For the crypto world, this is a nuclear-level blow! The narrative of 'buy only, not sell' belief collapsed completely, and even the hardest bulls began to waver: 'If I can't even hold MSTR anymore, why should I take it?' "At the same time, MSTR halted purchases combined with a net outflow of over $4.1 billion from Bitcoin ETFs in a single month, causing both major institutions to withdraw simultaneously, causing the market to lose its biggest stabilizer. This round of decline is not a black swan, but rather a "slow demand decline bear market." A real turnaround will depend on MSTR net buying again, ETF inflows resuming, and macro liquidity improving. Letting go of faith and picking up the abacus is the most rational choice right now! $BTC Oil prices briefly broke through $100 per barrel before retreating, but the weekly gain remained close to 10%, driven by ongoing geopolitical disruptions to the global energy supply chain. Currently, the international crude oil market is highly sensitive, and tensions in any major oil-producing region or transportation corridor can trigger sharp price swings. For example, if a military standoff or port blockade risk occurs in the Middle East, the market will quickly factor in a "supply disruption premium," pushing up oil prices; Once the situation eases or inventory data exceeds expectations, prices will quickly pull back. From the perspective of economic transmission paths, rising oil prices will directly drive up costs in industries such as transportation and chemical manufacturing, potentially pushing up overall inflation. For investors, attention should be paid to future developments in geopolitical developments, OPEC+ production policies, and the pace of U.S. strategic oil reserve releases. These factors will collectively determine whether oil prices can hold above the 100-yuan mark.Uncle San doesn't mess around, only talks about data, logic, and cycles. Brothers and sisters, this is the second issue of "On-Chain Uncle San." After the inaugural issue was released last week, we received many messages from brothers saying Uncle San broke down the data clearly and understandably. Let's continue—no hype, no bashing, just going through the truly important events of this week. 1. Market Overview: Middle East Ceasefire, BTC Returns to 65K Let's start with the most direct changes. On Monday, July 27, Beijing time, Bitcoin stood at $65,258, up about 1.2% in 24 hours. Ethereum was even stronger, rising over 3%, approaching $1,950. Other top ten assets like Solana and XRP also recorded gains of 1% to 2%. Direct driver: US-Iran ceasefire. The US and Iran paused military strikes against each other for the second consecutive day, leaving room for diplomatic breakthroughs. Once the news broke, the market quickly switched to a "risk-on" mode—crude oil plunged about 5% to around $85, US stock futures rose, and cryptocurrencies rebounded in sync. The transmission chain is clear: war → oil price rises → inflation expectations rise → central bank hawkishness → risk assets under pressure; ceasefire → chain loosens → money flows back into high-risk assets. 2. Key Signals: Why is BTC's Rise Restrained While ETH is Stronger? Some brothers might ask: BTC only rose 1.2%, ETH over 3%, why? There are structural reasons worth examining. Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive weeks, while Bitcoin ETFs, although net inflows overall last week, experienced single-day outflows. Preferences at the spot level have quietly shifted, but price effects only became obvious today. Additionally, Ethereum is inherently more sensitive to macro sentiment than Bitcoin—when the market loosens, it bounces higher; when the market tightens, it falls harder. Today is the former. But Uncle San also reminds: there is no broad altcoin rally yet. Bitcoin's 58.6% market dominance indicates that capital rotation is not yet a widespread altcoin market. ETH outperforming is a signal, but don't rush to go all in on altcoins. 3. Most Important Events: $2.5 Billion Options + Fed Meeting Today's rebound is just the prelude; the real drama is in the next two days. Event 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (July 28-29) The market generally expects the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged (target range 3.5%-3.75%). But the real key is Fed Chair Powell's remarks—answers on inflation trends, oil price impact, and whether further rate hikes are possible will directly determine market direction. Currently, the market assigns a 36.3% probability to a 25 basis point rate hike. The drop in oil prices is good, but whether inflation is truly under control depends on the Fed's statement. Event 2: $2.5 Billion Options Bets Options traders have bought about $2.5 billion nominal value of Bitcoin call spread options expiring July 31. If Bitcoin rises to around $72,000 after the Fed decision, these positions will profit. $2.5 billion is not a small amount. This means big money is betting on one direction—and that direction is up. But Uncle San must say: call spread options don't guarantee price rises; they mean "someone is willing to bet on this possibility." We can watch the show, but don't go all in. 4. Cycle Perspective: Bottom May Form "Within the Next Two Months"? Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, shared data on X: The time between each Bitcoin halving and the subsequent bear market bottom is about 900 days, and the current cycle has reached day 827. According to this pattern, the potential final bottom may form within the next two months. This data aligns with last week's research report conclusion (the low point may form by late November 2026). Two independent sources point to the same time window—this resonance deserves attention. 5. Uncle San's Words The market has come this far; short term watch the Fed, medium term watch the cycle. Volatility won't be small in the next two days. If the Fed signals dovishness, BTC could challenge the 67,000-68,000 resistance zone; if hawkish, it may retest support at 62,000-63,000. Strategy in one sentence: don't bet on direction before the news lands, and don't dump chips in the thick of panic. At this position, there's room up and a bottom down—but you need chips in hand to wait for dawn. Follow "On-Chain Uncle San," we'll provide timely analysis and trading advice on the Fed decision in the next two days. #美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 China's largest memory chip manufacturer was listed in Shanghai this morning, with its stock price surging 470% at one point after opening. Priced at ¥8.66, it opened at ¥49.50. Its market capitalization soared from $85 billion to $487 billion within minutes. It has now become the highest-valued listed company in China, surpassing ICBC. 9.4 million retail investors applied for ¥7.07 trillion worth of shares, with an allocation ratio of 0.47%. To fund these subscriptions, people sold everything else. The STAR 50 index has dropped nearly 20% from its July high, while the cash waiting for allocation remains frozen. Because the STAR market requires holding assets worth ¥500,000 and having quotas, foreigners cannot buy any shares. Therefore, just two weeks ago, a crypto platform listed a perpetual contract on Hyperliquid that tracks CXMT's price. Traders who are legally unable to hold the stock priced it between $400 billion and $560 billion. Its market cap at opening was $487 billion. No one can arbitrage this perpetual contract with the real stock because there is no mechanism #forcing them to be consistent. That's just how it is$BTC #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 In this move, Black chose a long test—the CLARITY Act's minion wave was locked in by the opponent's elephant chain just past the center line. Senate Majority Leader Thune's speech is like marking "??" on the chessboard. White's attack plan was forced into an endgame. Trump's $1.4 billion in crypto gains is not a token of the king's wing, but a backwing constraint—Democrats and consumer groups seize this weakness, attacking the White side's structural loopholes like lone soldiers. Look at the tactical details of this situation: DOJ holds sole refereeing power, which means all the cars on the board are tied to the same horizontal line; The ambiguity of indirect holdings is like an undefined stacking of troops; The automatic expiration clause on January 20, 2029, is basically a preset timeout warning on the chess clock. The probability given by the prediction market dropped from an early 70% to one-third. This was not a simple odds adjustment, but a collective judgment by the players: White's king's rook castling could no longer be completed, forcing the midgame battle to be prematurely reduced. Now, let's talk about the deep integration of $XLITE. It is like a c3 pawn on a chessboard—weak on the surface, but actually restraining the entire rear wing structure. The stagnation of the CLARITY Act means the opponent has inserted a horse at C3—the liquidity narrative of $XLITE immediately tightens as the market realizes that when the regulatory path is cut off, capital can only shrink to a few safe slots—those holding "fortress-type" assets in real assets. $XLITE market fluctuations are not random moves but the player's calculations: if the CLARITY Act drags on for another three quarters, is this piece worth keeping as a "channel pawn" or a "discarded piece" to exchange early? The final judgment point is not the present, but in the 2026 timeframe—the CLARITYActAug2026 in the candidate list—is like a lategame phase exchange window. But White is losing even the initiative in the middle game; every block, exchange, or even small-scale "forced and drawn" attempt is wasting valuable moves. They can move one more step, but the space on the board is being filled by the opponent's pieces. The clock ticked as the endgame began. #clarityactstalled Chewing on skewers XBMNR is a project with a +10.95% increase according to OKX real-time data. It looks quite impressive, with a transaction volume of only 3.9K USDT, which is less than the pancake stall downstairs from the whole morning. I looked around the team background, a few anonymous avatars formed an "international team," and the white paper described token economics as vaguely as horoscopes, saying they would build a cross-chain NFT lending aggregator. But the only application in the ecosystem was a pixel-level Pong game. To put it bluntly, this level of depth is basically a mutual cutting among group members. Looking at IRYS, +10.53% traded at 2.68M, much more decent. Rumors are circulating in the community that they are about to integrate a certain L2 storage solution into the OKX wallet. Several veterans in the early Arweave ecosystem have a technical foundation stronger than some top-tier projects. PEOPLE is going crazy again this round by +10.12%, always acting like a fake during meme seasons, but I've heard there's an OG market-making team behind the scenes repeatedly doing swing trading, using exactly the same approach as last year's Vegas pool party—pulling up to clear leverage. ALL O's 8.15% drop is the most real. I heard the founder is in a dispute with a certain VC, and the unlock terms have fallen apart—the secondary market should be the first to pay respects. VELODROME rose 8% but only traded 19.6K, just like XBMNR, where degen players are all in the OP mainnet pool. This trading pair is pure performance art. Honestly, watching the candlestick line late at night, with neon lights flickering outside the window, is as psychedelic as these abstract charts. Spending real money to get in and even hearing about it is considered a worthwhile project Brothers, today I'm talking about something that may be overlooked by most people, but has far-reaching impact. Wall Street's tradition of "weekend market closure" is being forced to restructure by the crypto market's 24×7/7 trading model. What happened? According to CoinDesk, as the crypto market develops around the clock trading model, Wall Street exchanges are re-examining the traditional rule of "weekend closure." Perpetual contracts on crypto trading platforms are providing new risk management tools for traditional financial markets. In the past, Wall Street traders typically reduced their risk exposure before Friday's close to avoid weekend surprises that could prevent portfolio adjustments. But now, they have one more option—to hedge on crypto platforms. Most classic case: Middle East conflict in March this year. During the escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel in March, traditional energy markets were closed, but traders shifted to crypto exchanges to trade crude oil perpetual contracts. On Sunday, March 8, Hyperliquid's crude oil perpetual open interest reached a record high of $1.2 billion. The 24-hour trading volume of crude oil perpetual contracts surged from $21 million on average before the crisis to between $1.2 billion and $1.99 billion. While Wall Street was still waiting for Monday's opening, the crypto market had already priced in 80% of the weekend's oil price volatility. By the time CME opens on Monday, the price will no longer be the close on Friday. The data speaks for itself: over the past three months, Hyperliquid's crude oil perpetual contract weekday trading volume averaged about 2 to 3 times that of weekends, but the share of weekend trading has increased since the March conflict The Federal Reserve interest rate decision overlaps with tech giants' earnings reports, and the risk asset tone depends on whether the giants' AI capital expenditures under high valuation and high positions can deliver profit growth. Currently, cross-asset positions are highly concentrated in hardware and cloud computing leaders such as $NVDA, $MSFT, and $META. The dual catalysts of the Fed's rate decision and earnings reports are compressing liquidity premiums. Infrastructure construction and data center expansion consume massive capital, and market risk appetite is extremely sensitive to the scissors gap between capital expenditures and profit growth. The priority order driving the trading landscape is: the degree to which AI capital expenditures squeeze short-term profits, changes in risk-free rates triggered by the Fed's rate guidance, and the transmission of risk appetite to peripheral high-beta assets. The upside scenario triggers if $NVDA and the data center industry chain's profit growth outpaces infrastructure spending growth, and the Fed signals a dovish stance. Funds will return to high-beta tech stocks and the crypto market. Variables to watch include cloud computing division profit margins and the speed of net inflows of risk capital. If capital expenditure growth exceeds earnings, the scenario fails. The downside scenario triggers if tech giants' free cash flow is eroded by massive hardware investments, earnings guidance falls short of expectations, and the Fed maintains a hawkish stance. Rising risk-free rates will directly squeeze high-valuation sectors, prompting rapid deleveraging of long positions and a shift toward defensive assets. If the giants' AI monetization cycle shortens beyond expectations, the downside scenario fails. If the market completely ignores earnings capital expenditure growth and is driven solely by the Fed's unilateral liquidity expectations, the above earnings-based transmission logic fails. Key observations for the coming week include changes in tech giants' data center spending guidance, the yield curve movement after the Fed decision, and cross-market linkages caused by long position liquidations. #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧反弹是反弹，反转得另说——$QQQ -1.12%、$IBIT -0.82%，资金根本没跟，这波拉涨得先打个问号。看数字 $BTC 65,273 +1.29%　$ETH 1,965 +4.27% $QQQ -1.12%　$SPY +0.10%　$IBIT -0.82% $DXY -0.05%　$GLD +0.10% 原油和霍尔木兹继续给通胀预期上眼药，美债加 Fed 预期就像悬在头上的剑，AI和半导体随便一个消息都能让 $QQQ 原地抽搐。$SNDK -3.0%、$SKHYNIX -1.4%，这方向还软着。逐个抠细节：$ETH 比 $BTC 猛，弹性说明有风险偏好资金在搏短腿，但 $QQQ 没跟上，纳指那头明显心虚。$IBIT 弱于现货，ETF 一软就是聪明钱没真加仓，别光看 $BTC 价格被撑起来。$DXY 微跌，风险资产总算能喘口气，可 $GLD 还在涨，避险资金根本没撤干净，这个结构很拧巴。$SOL 也跟着蹦跶，但成交额上来得快，能不能守住是另一码事。晚上谁能撑住，这波才算数，谁先露怯谁就定方向，别急着冲。 #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 "There's a teacher in my group who always raises orders every time he calls for a higher price"—why are you always the last one to know? The "trading teachers" in the crypto circle have a set of standard operating procedures. First layer: Build your own position first. Layer two: "revealing" internal information in small groups. Third layer: Group members rush in with FOMO to pump the market. Fourth layer: Screenshot and show off earnings to attract more people. Fifth level: Shipping. The "price rises after shouting" you see is because you happen to be on the third floor. You will never see the first two floors. Even more ironically—many "teachers" don't need to secretly build positions at all. They directly tell you, "I bought XX," then you rush in to carry the sedan chair. Your buying is his profit. Remember one iron rule: information that truly makes money will never appear for free in your TG group. If someone chases you to tell you "this coin is going to fly," ask yourself a question—why would they tell you? Ask me how I know? My tears will tell you the answer......#交易之声 your experience deserves to be heard On July 27, the downtrend continued from the previous day, weakening for four consecutive trading days, completely breaking below the key support level of 1500. The short-term bullish trend completely reversed, with a complete breakout below 1450, signaling a disastrous crash. Institutional funds: Long-term bulls are collectively reducing positions, hedge funds continue to increase short positions; Large sell orders flowed out continuously throughout the day, with institutional holdings showing net sales exceeding 1.2 billion USD for three consecutive days. On July 24, after the market closed, the company lowered its revenue and gross margin guidance for the next quarter, clearly warning that NAND flash prices are about to enter a downward trajectory, breaking the market's unanimous expectation of "AI continuing to drive flash memory prices." Institutional estimates suggest that if the average price of flash memory drops by 10%, SanDisk's gross margin will drop by 12 percentage points, posing a significant downward risk of earnings revisions; Previously, the annual surge completely overwhelmed expectations for price increases, and after negative news materialized, funds concentrated and forced them to flee. Samsung and SK Hynix are accelerating the construction of advanced NAND production lines above 300 layers, launching new capacity ahead of schedule. The market predicts a significant surge in NAND supply in 2027, replicating the memory industry's classic cycle of "price hikes - expansion - price crashes." SanDisk's business focuses solely on NAND flash memory, without hedged HDD or HBM business cycles. Compared to Samsung and Micron, which have a single business structure, funds prioritize selling SanDisk stocks due to expectations of overcapacity. Leading cloud providers have launched memory compression and KV Cache optimization solutions, and AI inference scenarios have lowered the incremental demand for large-capacity SSD flash memory; At the same time, the three major storage manufacturers prioritized advanced production capacity for high-margin HBM memory, driving growth in enterprise-level SSD orders AI valuation logic has shifted from "narrative premium" to the "return verification" stage Is the crypto market undergoing a "vision to earnings" repricing reevaluation similar to tech stocks? On the factual side, both Alphabet and Tesla's latest earnings reports showed revenue exceeding expectations, with Google Cloud growing 82% year-on-year, but both companies' stock prices fell after the release. The core disagreement is not in current performance, but in the raised AI capital expenditure guidance from both companies. The market no longer sees AI investment as a growth signal, but rather as a cost item not yet covered by revenue. This logic has been transmitted through the semiconductor sector this week, with AI narratives stress-tested from the demand side. For the crypto market, this event provides a clear valuation mirror: when the market shifts from "believing the story" to "demanding evidence," any asset class that relies on narrative rather than cash flow faces a contraction in its pricing structure. BTC's current price performance near 64K reflects the sentiment of this "ROI anxiety" spilling over from tech stocks to overall risk assets. In terms of capital behavior, three types of funds need to be distinguished: - Real demand funds: Mainly institutional compliance allocation and on-chain stablecoin settlements. These funds are less sensitive to short-term narrative shifts and focus more on macro interest rate paths and regulatory clarity. Currently, there are no large-scale withdrawal signals. - Passive allocation of funds: such as ETF liquidity and index rebalancing funds, which are less affected by sentiment fluctuations in tech stocks, but may indirectly reduce crypto asset allocation by lowering overall risk exposure during systemic risk appetite contraction. - Short-term speculative funds: This is currently the most affected type of capital. The cooling of the AI narrative has led to higher risk premiums for tech growth stocks, with speculative funds more inclined to withdraw high-beta assets in cross-asset comparisons, with the crypto market bearing the brunt. If this sentiment persists, altcoins, especially tokens related to AI concepts, will face greater selling pressure. Transmission path: Tech stock valuation logic shifts -> Shrinking cross-asset risk appetite -> Speculative capital outflows BTC/altcoins -> Liquidity concentrated in BTC and stablecoins -> ETH and altcoins are relatively weaker than BTC. Biased multi-sided path: If future tech companies' earnings reports can clearly show AI revenue conversion paths, or if macro data unexpectedly turns dovish, risk appetite recovery will first flow back into BTC, then gradually spread to mainstream altcoins. Bearish risk: If more tech companies raise capital expenditures but lack revenue support, the market's pricing of the "negative return narrative" will deepen. If BTC breaks below the key support at 62K, it could trigger stop-loss selling by short-term speculative funds. Conclusion: AI capital expenditure shifting from "vision" to "cost" marks a structural shift in the current pricing logic for risk assets. In the short term, the crypto market remains suppressed by this sentiment spillover until macro or on-chain data provides a new pricing anchor. Risk Warning: The above is only market logic analysis and does not constitute any trading advice. $BTC $ETH #AIEarnings #CryptoMacro A month ago, I said $SPCX could fall by around 50%. That move has now happened. But I still don't believe the bottom is in. The next major catalyst is approaching: 📅 Share unlocks begin August 11. 📊 Around 20% of shares could enter the market during the unlock period. ⚠️ Only approximately 5% of total shares are currently in circulation. That creates a major supply overhang. When a large amount of previously locked shares becomes eligible to enter the market, selling pressure can increase sign #美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower After three days of ceasefire, the market changed The U.S. and Iran paused their fights for three consecutive days, and Trump took the initiative to withdraw, saying it was to "leave some room for negotiations." Iran responded: If you don't fight, then I won't. Both sides took a step back, and the Middle East finally breathed a sigh of relief. Oil prices fell back in response, with Brent crude $BZ dropping from above $100 to $86.34, plunging 5.82% in a single day; WTI crude $CL also fell below the $85 mark, with both major benchmarks weakening simultaneously. Inflation concerns have temporarily eased, but oil prices are like springs—the harder they are pressed, the fiercer the rebound, provided no more surprises occur. Global assets fluctuated accordingly. $BTC rebounded strongly from $63,800 and is currently holding steady above $65,200. The crypto market has always been sensitive to geopolitical risks: a ceasefire brings breathing room, and capital returns to risky assets; But the ceasefire agreement was unsigned, without constraints, fragile like a window paper. The $XAU side for gold is even more interesting: with cooling in geopolitical climate and a stronger dollar, gold prices have pulled back from highs, with obvious short-term selling pressure. Market divisions are also intensifying: some think gold's recent rally is too aggressive and it's time to take a break; Some people treat pullbacks as reversing and taking over, betting on future uncertainty. After all, no one dares to say the Middle East game is over. I believe the next focus should be on three key points: the movements of the U.S. carrier strike group, the status of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether Iran's uranium enrichment activities will resume. Any disturbance causes oil prices to jump immediately, and BTC and gold quickly follow the safe-haven rhythm. In the short term, the ceasefire has brought some relief to the market, with oil prices under pressure, BTC taking a breather, and gold oscillating at high levels. But more likely, it was a delaying tactic—both sides were resupplying ammunition and gathering chips. The energy game took a halftime break, but the final whistle was far from over. For us, right now, don't chase the rise or sell the dip; keep your positions well and keep plenty of ammunition. If peace really comes, oil prices will still fall; If he feigned a spear, the next wave would only be fiercer.$BTC Spot ETFs saw inflows of $33.79 million last week, while $ETH spot ETFs saw inflows of $104 million. ETH ETFs attract three times as much as BTC. The Fear and Greed Index is 39 (fear), but ETF funds continue to flow in—institutions buy in fear, retail investors wait and see in fear. ETH capital inflows led significantly, and with ETH rising 4.23% in a single day, the signal of capital rotation was confirmed. When ETH ETF inflows consistently exceed BTC, it is often a precursor to the altcoin season. Historical pattern: ETF inflows + low fear index = medium-term positioning window. But it needs to be confirmed with increased volume. #BTC #ETH #比特币 #以太坊 #ETF Guys, today's news is worth pausing to read for three seconds. Let's look at the data first: Strategy (Bitcoin's largest treasury): Holdings: 843,775 BTC Average cost: $75,476 per coin Current floating loss: $8.85 billion (-13.9%) Cash reserves: $3.75 billion, enough to pay 25 months of interest Recent status: Suspended Bitcoin holdings for one month, recently sold 3,588 BTC to cash out $216 million Bitmine (Ethereum largest treasury): Holdings: 5,787,414 ETH Average cost: $3,373 per coin Current unrealized loss: $8.247 billion (-42.2%) Staked: About 4.917 million ETH staked Recent status: Last week still bought 9,946 ETH at $1,897 What does this mean? The two most stubborn bulls—one paused buying, the other kept buying. Strategy's floating loss ratio is relatively smaller (-13.9%), but it has stopped buying and selling coins to cash out and pay interest. Bitmine lost even more deeply (-42.2%) but is still increasing its positions against the trend. When the biggest bulls start to pause and catch their breath, is it a bottom signal, or is a bigger storm still ahead? When even the most determined people start to waver, do you choose to trust the power of cycles, or follow the trend? This $17.1 billion unrealized loss is the faith these two companies bought with real money. But is it worth it?Shein准备上市，季度利润从赚3.95亿美元变成亏9900万美元长鑫存储上市首日暴涨后，港股又迎来一个超级IPO热点：Shein。这家公司曾经被视为中国跨境电商最成功的样本之一，2025年收入仍增长约8%，达到418亿美元。但净利润却下降39%，来到20.6亿美元。到了2026年第一季度，公司更是录得9900万美元亏损，而去年同期还赚了3.95亿美元。增长还在，利润却突然变脸，核心原因来自关税。美国取消小额包裹免税政策后，Shein低价直邮模式的成本优势被明显削弱。美国业务收入同比下降，欧洲也可能增加进口费用，而美国与欧洲合计贡献了公司超过一半的收入。这也是Shein上市最矛盾的地方。市场曾把它当成一家高增长科技平台，愿意给予接近千亿美元的估值；但现在它越来越像一家需要承担库存、物流、关税和营销费用的传统零售公司。 Shein目前寻求的估值据报道约为400亿至500亿美元。问题是，公司一季度经营利润率已经降至约2.5%，如果关税继续侵蚀利润，这个估值到底应该按照科技平台算，还是按照普通服装零售商算？对于港股打新投资者来说，Shein的品牌知名度和市场关注度肯定不缺，真正需要警惕的是发行估值。热门公司不等于好价格。如果上市定价仍然建立在高速增长和高利润率恢复的前提上，首日情绪可能很热，后续却要面对盈利数据的持续验证。一句话总结： Shein这次上市卖的不是一件便宜衣服，而是一个并不便宜的增长故事。公司能不能上市不难，难的是用现在的利润撑住400亿至500亿美元估值。$ETH $BTC $SHIB Global Macro Guidance for July 27 - August 2: De-escalation of US-Iran tensions, US stock earnings as the main theme, economy and AI profits become two key validation chains! This Week's Theme: The US-Iran situation enters a turning and easing period, tension de-escalates, conventional games enter conventional play. AI enters the "earnings redemption week," the Federal Reserve enters a silent period, rate cut data will determine the pace of rate cuts, and global liquidity enters a fundamental trading mode! 1. The only main theme this week: US stock Q2 earnings, is AI really worth this valuation! Focus on earnings this week: Microsoft, META, Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm, SK Hynix, and Samsung earnings reports will be released, representing key sectors of the AI industry chain including cloud computing, AI applications, consumer electronics, semiconductor design, storage, and wafer manufacturing. This will be the most critical week of the Q2 earnings season. These companies basically represent half of the AI industry chain, and their earnings reports will trigger a key valuation adjustment for the entire AI ecosystem. In the past six months, the market traded on AI's future; now, the market trades on AI profits. This is the biggest change in the AI ecosystem for Q2. At the same time, corporate earnings reports are an important risk market validation chain this week and a core of fundamental trading. Earnings release schedule: Thursday morning: SK Hynix earnings, before the Korean market opens Thursday early morning: Microsoft, Meta, after US market close Friday morning: Samsung Electronics, before Korean market opens Friday early morning: Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm, after US market close, Coinbase 2. Two validations: economic data to verify the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and current rate environment; earnings + economic growth to verify corporate investment confidence and AI return rate. 1. Macro data gradually validates AI valuation and interest rate environment On Wednesday, July 29, the US second-quarter GDP preliminary estimate will show economic resilience, affecting subsequent interest rates and whether the current economy can validate AI valuation. High GDP growth may not benefit US stocks but could suppress rate cut space. The worst combination is strong GDP and high PCE with average earnings guidance, which will cause confidence in the US stock AI sector to decline. Early morning July 30: Federal Reserve rate decision and Chair Powell's press conference. Rates are likely to remain unchanged. Focus on whether Powell's press conference and meeting minutes re-emphasize inflation risks, clarify that future policy has no preset path, or reserve space for a September rate hike or prolonged high rates. Evening July 30: June PCE and core PCE. June CPI core inflation declined, easing market inflation concerns. However, recent energy price rebounds make it critical to see if June PCE further strengthens confidence in core inflation decline. If core PCE inflation remains sticky, short-term inflation and future inflation expectations concerns will increase, which is unfavorable for rate cuts and suppresses risk markets. Morning July 31: Bank of Japan rate decision. The yen has been frequently volatile recently. Whether the BOJ will further raise rates will determine yen movement, US-Japan interest rate differentials, and financial market liquidity. 2. Energy prices + PCE inflation data + Fed stance + US Treasury yields + tech stock valuations form this week's macro pricing logic. GDP + PCE validate rate expectations; GDP and earnings validate whether US economic resilience can support AI market valuations. 3. Macro, geopolitical, and central bank transmission chain: 1. Energy affects inflation, which affects central banks. Geopolitical situations determine oil prices, oil prices guide inflation expectations, and inflation expectations change the rate adjustment attitudes of the US and global central banks. 2. This week, US-Iran tensions ease and de-escalate, so it is no longer the main theme. However, energy price fluctuations still impact important market expectations. Continued oil price rises or falls this week will directly affect rate market dynamic expectations. Summary of this chapter: After this week, we want to get three validation answers: a. Do inflation and growth data strengthen or weaken high rate expectations? b. Does tech corporate profit growth outpace capital expenditure growth? c. Which dominates: rate pressure or profit improvement? This week is a complex dual pricing week of policy and AI earnings fundamentals, especially for US stocks. Macro determines the ceiling, earnings determine the profit floor, and the industry chain determines structural differentiation. Therefore, in this complex environment, global assets such as US Treasuries sensitive to rates, gold and the US dollar, US stocks sensitive to earnings, and #Bitcoin sensitive to both rates and risk appetite will face a high volatility risk environment. Personal advice: observe more and validate more this week. Try not to make key decisions before all data validations are complete! #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 PS: Further observations on this week's corporate earnings will be added later! Since US stocks have entered a structural differentiation validation phase, earnings reports should not only be judged by whether they meet overall expectations. For the AI industry chain, one earnings report determines the overall volatility of upstream and downstream companies!📊 $XRP Liquidation Overview $1.9195 million liquidated in 24 hours, with short liquidations at $1.0071 million accounting for 52.5% of the total, and long liquidations at $912,500, nearly balanced between longs and shorts. In the first 12 hours, long liquidations overwhelmed shorts (longs accounted for 95% in 1 hour, 98.5% in 4 hours), with prices continuously squeezing longs; however, in the 12-hour period, short liquidations of $480,100 began to surpass longs (38%), triggering a short squeeze; ultimately, shorts narrowly won in 24 hours. Liquidations concentrated in the 12-hour period (65.9%), with an increase of about $655,000 in the latter 12 hours, intensifying the long-short battle in the second half. In summary: $XRP saw a long-short reversal in 24 hours, with shorts winning by a slight 52.5% margin, shifting the direction from long liquidation to short squeeze. 🔥 Market Indicator | July 27 Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: AI narrative entering the "validation season"—from the valuation frenzy of domestic storage, to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, to the earnings tests of tech giants, the market is re-evaluating whether the high investment model in AI can deliver high returns. 📈 ChangXin Technology IPO: The "Domestic Substitution" Frenzy with a 3.66 Trillion Market Cap On July 27, domestic DRAM leader ChangXin Technology officially listed on the STAR Market, with an issue price of ¥8.66/share, surging 471.59% at open, and a market cap briefly surpassing ¥3.66 trillion, overtaking ICBC as the largest A-share market cap. The IPO raised ¥66.6 billion, the largest since the STAR Market's inception. ChangXin expects net profit over ¥50 billion in the first half, with global market share rising from 3% to 8%. However, controversy is significant: SK Hynix's quarterly revenue is more than three times ChangXin's half-year revenue; technologically, it still lags about two generations and three years behind US and Korean giants. Whether the ¥3.66 trillion market cap marks the start of a super cycle or a peak moment is sharply debated. After ChangXin's listing, a clear capital siphoning effect appeared, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each dropping about 4% intraday. 🏛️ Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Early Thursday: Rate Hike Expectations Stirring The biggest macro variable this week—the Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting from July 28 to 29. Economists almost unanimously expect no change, but interest rate futures market prices in a 36% chance of a rate hike. The divergence stems from oil prices—Brent crude has surpassed $100/barrel, with US-Iran conflicts raising geopolitical risk premiums, plus tariffs and massive AI spending, inflation pressures are rising again. This is Fed Chair Waller's second meeting; whether it will stage an "unexpected rate hike" will be revealed early Thursday. 📊 Microsoft, Meta, Amazon Earnings: AI "Burning Money" Model Under Scrutiny This week Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon released earnings, with market focus aligned: can massive AI capital expenditures translate into real revenue? Whether Microsoft Azure can maintain growth above 40% is key. Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $125-145 billion, questioning if AI investment erodes ad profits. Amazon AWS growth is expected to exceed 30% for the first time since 2022. Google and Tesla have already sounded alarms with their first-ever negative cash flow—AI is burning faster than expected. 💎 Summary Three events outline the core market contradictions today: ChangXin Technology's ¥3.66 trillion market cap is an extreme valuation of "domestic substitution + AI demand"; the Fed's rate decision is a tense game over "whether inflation will return"; tech giants' earnings are the ultimate test of "whether AI spending can be profitable." Valuation frenzy, policy shifts, and earnings validation mark the AI narrative's transition from "storytelling" to "answering the test." #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ 📈 Daily Market Brief | 2026.07.27 (Monday) 📌 In short Risk asset sentiment clearly warmed today, mainly driven by the suspension of further military actions by the US and Iran, a sharp drop in crude oil, and Changxin Technology's strong performance on its first day of listing. However, this is only the beginning of the "Super Week." The real decision for the next phase remains the Federal Reserve meeting and the earnings reports from the four tech giants. 📊 A quick overview of today's market trends Continuing data from the 10 a.m. briefing: $BTC: About $65,144, up about 1.1% in 24 hours $ETH: Approximately $1,625 $HYPE: Approximately $63.35 Gold: approximately $4,108 per ounce Brent crude oil: about $92.8, down more than 4% U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: approximately 4.63% The most obvious change in the market today is that the decline in crude oil prices has temporarily eased inflation and rate hike pressure, with funds flowing back into risk assets. 🔥 Today's Most Noteworthy (Top 5) (1) Changxin Technology goes public, market pricing exceeds expectations Fact: Changxin Technology officially listed on the STAR Market today: Issue price: 8.66 yuan Opening price: 49.50 yuan Opening gain: approximately 471.6% Closing price up about 465.8% from the issue price The turnover on the first day was approximately 141.1 billion yuan Changxin Technology performed exceptionally well on its first day, directly boosting sentiment in the STAR Market and semiconductor sectors. My analysis: Yesterday, we were concerned that the real price of Changxin A-shares after listing may be far lower than the perpetual CXMT Pre-IPO on HYPE, leading to a rapid decline in contracts. Today's result was the opposite: the A-share market offered a high price, basically confirming the previously high expectations of the HYPE market. This indicates that the pre-IPO market on Hyperliquid already has some price discovery capability, but the price gap between A-shares and CXMT perpetual cannot be interpreted as risk-free arbitrage, because there is still the following: Oracle switching speed Changes in the RMB exchange rate A-share market closure time difference Funding rate Liquidity and liquidation risk Changxin's first day of rise does not mean the logic of Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, and SanDisk has ended. In the short term, the competitive landscape is repricing; in the long term, it depends on whether AI servers and data centers can continue to drive DRAM and HBM demand. (2) Crude oil plunges, giving risk assets a temporary breather The US and Iran have not launched new military strikes for two consecutive days, prompting markets to re-bet on diplomatic easing. Brent crude oil has retreated significantly after briefly breaking through $100 last week; The September contract once fell about 4.9% to near $92. A drop in oil prices means: Secondary inflationary pressures have decreased Pressure on U.S. Treasury yields eased Expectations for further Fed rate hikes have cooled Tech stocks and cryptocurrency valuations are gaining support But this is only a temporary withdrawal of geopolitical risk premiums, and does not mean the conflict is over. If US-Iran negotiations break down again, or if shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted, oil prices could still rebound rapidly. (3) BTC, ETH, and HYPE: Rebounds are worth watching, but not worth chasing BTC returned to around $65,000 today, mainly benefiting from falling oil prices and a recovery in risk appetite. However, this week the Fed and tech stocks have been intensively releasing earnings reports and macro data, so chasing the rally right now is not cost-effective. Key BTC Insights: Can the $64,200–$65,500 range be effectively broken Will there be volume support after the breakout? If it falls back into the range again, it is necessary to guard against a false breakout ETH： For now, it continues to follow BTC and tech stock sentiment, with no clear independent trend yet seen. HYPE： HYPE remains a highly elastic target I have been following for a long time. CXMT's IPO performance today once again proves that Hyperliquid is gradually expanding from a simple cryptocurrency trading platform to traditional asset, commodity, and pre-IPO markets. However, this week HYPE was affected by BTC, tech stock sentiment, and CXMT contract pricing, with volatility likely to be significantly higher than BTC, so positions should not be overweight. (4) The Fed enters the most critical pricing window The Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting from July 28 to 29, with policy results expected to be announced in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time. This time, the market's focus is not just on whether interest rates will change, but more importantly on how the Federal Reserve assesses: Secondary inflation caused by rising crude oil prices US Treasury yields remain high Is there still a possibility of rate hikes in the future? The impact of AI data center investments on the economy, energy, and financing needs Today's drop in oil prices is positive for the market, but a single day of pullback is not enough to prompt the Fed to immediately turn dovish. (5) Tech giants' earnings will determine whether the AI main theme can continue Microsoft and Meta will release earnings after the U.S. market closed on Wednesday; Apple and Amazon will release their earnings reports after Thursday's market close. Microsoft and Meta have confirmed the relevant arrangements on their official investor pages. What the market is truly concerned about this time is: Will AI capital spending continue to grow? Can cloud computing and advertising revenue cover the huge investment? Will management lower its guidance for future investments or revenue? For Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix, Samsung, and Changxin Technology, the AI capital expenditure guidance from tech giants is even more important than short-term stock price fluctuations. 🟡 Gold and silver Gold today was supported by falling oil prices and falling U.S. Treasury yields, but may still fluctuate around $4,100. Previously, gold had already broken through the daily downtrend line and pulled back. As long as the trendline structure does not break below again, a medium-term bullish observation can still be maintained. Silver continues to follow sentiment toward gold and industrial metals, but volatility is generally higher than gold's, making it currently not suitable to chase gains in the middle of the range. 📅 Important calendar for this week ⭐ Wednesday to Thursday early morning Federal Reserve interest rate decision Federal Reserve Chair press conference Microsoft financial report Meta's financial report ⭐ Thursday to early Friday morning Apple's financial report Amazon financial report U.S. GDP PCE inflation data ⭐ Friday Bank of Japan interest rate decision China PMI U.S. Employment Cost Index ETH 2480 美元了，3 個真實指標說說 ETH/BTC 又刷新低了 ETH 的故事跟 BTC 不一樣，山寨之王地位受挑戰。 L2 TVL 380 億美元。Arbitrum + Optimism + Base 三家佔 85%，主網收入被分流。 Vitalik 新提案 EIP-7702。帳戶抽象化，可能重塑 L1 經濟模型。 SOL 日交易 4000 萬筆。對比 ETH 主網 80 萬筆，SOL 在用戶活躍度上碾壓。組合配置永遠比單個標的判斷重要。分批買入，不要 all in。 📌 把這個信號放回生態結構裡 ETH 的價格表現不能只看主網 K 線，還要同時觀察 L2 活躍度、質押比例、ETF 資金和開發者使用情況。單一季度的資金流出不代表生態失去價值，但如果活躍度、費用和資金流長期同向走弱，就需要重新評估配置比例。 🧭 我會怎樣跟蹤第一，觀察 ETH/BTC 是否停止創新低。第二，對比主網和主要 L2 的真實交易需求。第三，確認收益率是否足以補償智能合約和流動性風險。只有價格、資金和使用需求同時改善，我才會考慮提高曝險。 ⚠️ 風險提醒鏈上活動可能被激勵計劃短期放大，ETF 流量也會受到宏觀環境影響。不要把單週數據當成長期趨勢，更不要因為一個敘事就重倉單一資產。 🎯 最後的執行框架把 ETH 當成組合的一部分，預先寫好最大倉位和退出條件；市場沒有給出確認前，保留現金本身也是一種選擇。我會把這個話題拆成三層來看。第一層是可以直接觀察的數據，先記錄數值、時間和方向，避免只截一張圖就下結論；第二層是市場如何反應，數據改善但價格不動，和數據轉弱而價格仍然上漲，含義完全不同；第三層才是自己的操作，先寫下最大可承受損失，再決定是否需要調整倉位。這個順序看起來慢，但能減少被單一標題帶著走。對我來說，主網使用、L2 活躍度和資金流要放在同一張表裡對照。每次更新只改變有新證據的部分，不能因為一個數字變化就把整個判斷翻轉。若三個觀察方向彼此矛盾，我會把結論降級為「等待確認」，而不是硬湊出一個看多或看空的故事。市場中最容易被忽略的成本，是過早確定之後不願意承認假設已經失效。執行上我會先用觀察倉測試，等成交量、價格和基本面至少有兩項同向，再考慮增加曝險；若波動擴大或流動性變薄，則先縮小倉位。任何回測、歷史案例或 KOL 觀點都只能用來建立假設，不能代替當下的風險檢查。這篇內容是我的研究筆記，不是保證收益的買賣指令。$APE ApeCoin (APE) is a mainstream project with a stronger background but currently experiencing the pains of ecological transformation. Its price performance is somewhat disconnected from the project's fundamentals, with both opportunities and challenges ahead Holders can participate in ecosystem decision-making through ApeCoin DAO Yuga Labs' metaverse project Otherside, as well as the native currency of the dedicated chain ApeChain, are used for payments and on-chain interactions ApeChain's on-chain data reflects a lack of ecosystem vitality. Currently, there are only about 10,000 daily active addresses, daily transaction fees as low as $145, and total value locked (TVL) has plummeted over 80% from its peak to $4.5–5.7 million. This indicates that, aside from the NFT hype, no new applications can support sustained on-chain demand PeCoin and AKE have completely different risk profiles. AKE is a micro project heavily controlled by whales, while APE is a well-known project facing the challenge of "ecosystem implementation." Its future does not depend on short-term capital speculation, but on whether NFTs can be born on ApeChain, Whether killer apps that truly attract users and Yuga Labs' Otherside metaverse can succeed Shanhe suggests waiting and waiting for now: wait for the trend to become clear before making preparations $BEAT #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables Before regulatory documents were released, eight people siphoned off $80 million by buying options through a "front-running...... How can retail investors catch these "rat warehouses" in advance? According to Caixin's latest disclosure, the number of locked accounts in the Futu/Tiger insider trading case has risen to 310. The most brutal part was the extreme concentration of profits: just before regulators released the rectification notice, only eight traders made large-scale short-term puts on Futu and Tiger, precisely withdrawing $80 million in one wave! Whether in the US stock market or the Web3 market, this kind of "capital moves before the news comes out" is common. Insider information cannot be accessed by retail investors, but unusual options activity on the options chain is public and cannot be concealed. To catch clues of this kind of smart money before the "black swan" lands, these three anomaly monitoring tools and core logic must be mastered: Unusual Whales Currently, it is one of the most comprehensive tools for tracking large US stock options orders and dark pools. Focus on Sweep Orders and Deep Out-of-Value (OTM) short-term put options far from the current price. These "rushing to close without regard to cost" major options orders often mean that funds have received certain news. Barchart / MarketChameleon (Free Number Filter) If you don't want paid software, Barchart's free options movement rankings are sufficient. Filter by Vol/OI (volume/open interest) ratio of > 3x. A stock that usually shows no fluctuations suddenly sees short-term put volume several times the open interest, which is very likely to cause trouble. On-chain Derivatives Monitoring (Dune / Lookonchain) Web3 players feel the same way. In Deribit or on-chain derivatives protocols, monitoring changes in large put options positions via the Dune Dashboard or keeping a close eye on sudden high-multiplier short positions in Smart Money wallets before major announcements. Pitfall Warning: Option fluctuations are not 100% copying trading signals; many large orders are normal hedging operations for institutional positions. Don't get carried away and immediately open short positions at the sight of huge puts; The correct use is to use it as a minesweeper and risk warning indicator—when a position shows abnormal short positions without warning, it should first avoid risk or take appropriate precautions.You can probably feel how bearish the current market is. Let me share a few sets of data to help you understand: The current total cryptocurrency market cap is about 2.32 trillion per month, down about 47% from the October 2025 peak$BTC the current $60,500, down 48% from the 2025 all-time high$ETH and currently $1k5, down about 67% from the peak. CEX spot trading volume fell 39.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q1. So, what is the future path for web3, or crypto? I have researched, analyzed, and summarized several directions that may lead the next bull market. You can position your position in advance based on your own situation and preferences. Stablecoins and payments. The stablecoin sector is probably the most certain and most likely to become the main theme in the industry. Because stablecoins solve very specific problems, such as slow cross-border remittances, limited banking hours, and crypto transactions requiring 24-hour asset settlement. Stablecoins have moved from being US dollars substitutes on exchanges into traditional payment networks, with very clear payment needs. For example, the commonly used U Card eliminates the hassle of withdrawals. Visa stated that as of March 2026, its stablecoin settlement business will operate at an annualized scale of about $7 billion. So, where exactly are stablecoins actually used? 1. Cross-border settlement for businesses, such as a Singaporean company paying a supplier in the US. Traditional models may include: bank wire transfer, intermediary, and business day limits 100000 USDT、800000 ALD转入骗子钱包，恰好被Gate Alpha抓取，后续转入Gate Alpha空投。哈希可查。付费成功上币后，Gate称对接人不是员工。项目顺利登陆Gate，公信力谁来负责？Miners are under pressure, but I won't just buy the dip because of this signal. This round of miner profitability has entered an extreme phase: Hash Ribbons are still in the capitulation phase, some miners are selling coins to repay debts, or shifting energy resources to AI data centers. Historically, this cleansing eliminated high-cost hash power and provided fertile ground for medium- to long-term bottoms; However, "starting to capitulate" does not mean "capitulation is over," and during the release of selling pressure, prices may continue to weaken. My confirmation order is: Hash was the first to stabilize its decline; Difficulty gradually stabilized after adjustment; $BTC Regain the 67K level, then consider increasing risk exposure accordingly. If the price effectively breaks below the 60K support range, first control risk and avoid telling stories with miner data. Don't treat on-chain indicators as buy buttons. A truly reliable bottom requires both miner data and price structure to improve simultaneously. #美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower Gate的意思是：我们按照合同约定付的100000usdt和800,000 ALD到了“骗子”钱包的同时，恰巧Gate的alpha自动抓取了ALD代币，然后不能公开谁对接上币对接流程，最后骗子钱包转进了Gate alpha进行空投，是这样的吗？哈希在这里，答案在这里当一个项目付了钱、上了币、然后被告知“跟你沟通的人不是我们的人，并且项目登陆Gate”——这已经是Gate的公信力问题了 The bull and bear cycles in the crypto market have never been a collective celebration of broad gains, but rather a clear and brutal underlying logic. Countless market data and cycle patterns confirm a core fact: sporadic speculation on coins can never attract off-exchange incremental capital; only Bitcoin's sustained and significant rise can leverage massive off-market capital inflows, activate market-wide liquidity, and ultimately give rise to a true crypto bull market; The frequent on-chain rally and local rallies of altcoins are just short-term episodes caused by investors growing frustrated by the competition of existing funds, and are by no means signals of a bull market start. Many ordinary investors fall into misconceptions, taking short-term surges in altcoins and slight rebounds in on-chain trading volume as signs of a bull market, blindly following trends to speculate on various niche coins. But looking at the crypto market's development over more than a decade, all truly comprehensive bull markets have been driven by the future from altcoins to Bitcoin's value breakthrough and market strength. The fundamental difference between the two is that altcoins can only mobilize existing market capital, while only Bitcoin has the core ability to absorb off-exchange incremental funds, and incremental capital is the core foundation supporting large-scale bull markets. From the market capital structure and institutional layout data, the choice of capital has long been clearly defined. Currently, compliant crypto ETF funds are extremely concentrated. Data shows that the total net asset value of Bitcoin ETFs has reached $115 billion, making them the absolute macro core asset in the global compliant crypto market; Meanwhile, the total net asset value of Ethereum ETFs is only $18.2 billion, showing a huge disparity in scale, especially regarding various counterfeit assets Changxin Technology IPO Impact Analysis Brief on the Global Storage Sector Report Date: July 27, 2026 I. Key Conclusions 1. There is a significant valuation bubble in the current US storage sector: Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk have surged 7-10 times from the bottom of this cycle, with the market forcibly assigning AI growth stock valuations based on peak profits at the cycle top, seriously deviating from the historical valuation patterns of the strong storage industry cycle. 2. Changxin Technology listed with a market value of 3.31 trillion yuan on the first day, which does not change the global storage supply-demand pattern in the short term but fundamentally breaks the market consensus of "three oligarchs permanently controlling prices," becoming a direct catalyst for the return of high valuations. 3. Impact differentiation: fundamental impact is greatest on Micron, emotional valuation impact is greatest on SanDisk, and SK Hynix is relatively resilient. 4. Sector outflows mainly rotate within US stocks, with only a small portion diverted to gold and cryptocurrencies; US stock market likely to open 1%-3% lower on sentiment, with low probability of a single-day crash and significant internal differentiation. II. Current Valuation Status of the Storage Sector: Significant Bubble 2.1 Core Data Comparison of Key Targets Target Latest Market Cap Increase from Cycle Bottom Core Valuation Metrics Business Structure Micron Technology (MU) About $104 billion Over 800% increase in the past year Dynamic PE about 20x DRAM 76%, HBM market share 21% SK Hynix (ADR) About $78 billion About 8x increase from bottom Dynamic PE about 12x DRAM 83%, HBM market share 57% (world's first) SanDisk (SNDK) About $21.26 billion 781% increase since spin-off listing PE TTM 48.36x Pure NAND flash, no DRAM business Changxin Technology (A-share) 3.31 trillion RMB (about $457 billion) First day up 465.82% from issue price Dynamic PE about 22x (2026 forecast) 100% general DRAM, global market share about 7.7% 2.2 Core Logic of Valuation Bubble 1. Cycle valuation trap: Storage is a typical strong cyclical industry, with reasonable PE at historical peak only 5-10x. Current profits are at cycle peak (DRAM prices up over 300% since end of 2024), profits are unsustainable, but the market assigns 20-48x PE as AI growth stocks, causing serious valuation misalignment. 2. Insufficient demand support: 90% of this round's storage price increase comes from coordinated production cuts by the three oligarchs, only 10% from shipment growth; downstream AI commercialization is below expectations, cloud providers' capital expenditure growth far exceeds revenue growth, computing power demand is bubble-like and cannot support high storage prices long-term. 3. Expectations severely overdrawn: Micron's trillion-dollar market cap has priced in all HBM price increase benefits for the next 3 years in advance; even if profits remain high, the stock price lacks room to rise and any negative factor may trigger profit-taking. III. Impact Ranking of Changxin Listing on the Three Major Overseas Manufacturers 3.1 Fundamental Impact: Micron > SK Hynix >> SanDisk - Micron: Greatest impact Micron is the most dependent on the Chinese market among the three, with general DRAM (consumer and entry-level server) as its core business, highly overlapping with Changxin's main business. After Changxin's fundraising and capacity expansion, domestic substitution will accelerate, directly eroding Micron's market share in China; also, Micron's high proportion of general DRAM capacity means it is most directly affected by the industry's long-term pricing power shift downward. - SK Hynix: Limited impact Core profit comes from high-end HBM, capacity locked by cloud providers' long-term orders until end of 2027; Changxin cannot break this technical barrier in the short term, so high-margin core business is unaffected, only general DRAM is pressured, with a fundamental safety cushion. - SanDisk: No direct impact SanDisk is a pure NAND flash manufacturer; Changxin does not involve NAND business (domestic NAND leader is Yangtze Memory), so no direct business competition; decline is entirely due to sector sentiment drag. 3.2 Emotional Valuation Impact: SanDisk > Micron > SK Hynix - SanDisk: Heaviest selling pressure 48x PE is the extreme manifestation of the sector bubble, fully relying on the narrative of "AI driving flash demand explosion," without oligopoly or technical barriers as hard support. Once sector sentiment cools, profit-taking will concentrate, with a decline significantly greater than the other two. - Micron: High valuation reversion pressure Trillion-dollar market cap is based on the core assumption of "three oligarchs coordinating production cuts and price hikes continuing until 2028." Changxin as an independent fourth player breaks this consensus, the long-term profit ceiling is pierced, and valuation midpoint must converge from growth stock to cyclical stock. - SK Hynix: Relatively resilient Has retreated over 40% from the high since July, negative factors already fully priced in; HBM technical barriers and real orders provide support, and it will stabilize first after sentiment release. IV. Capital and Sentiment Transmission Path 1. Breaking the oligopoly price control belief (core long-term logic) Previously, storage stock valuation premiums essentially assumed the three giants could permanently maintain high prices through coordinated production cuts. Changxin has domestic substitution policy support, capacity expansion is not constrained by the three giants' production cut rhythm, which will lower the industry's average gross margin and price hike cycle length long-term, leading to continuous valuation downward adjustment. 2. Passive rebalancing of index funds Global semiconductor and storage indices will gradually include Changxin, passive funds will rigidly reduce Micron and Hynix holdings to allocate to Changxin, with scale reaching tens of billions of dollars. This rebalancing is a long-term slow variable, not completed in a single day, but will continuously suppress the rebound space of US storage stocks. 3. Concentrated profit-taking at high levels Storage stocks have surged greatly, with strong profit-taking demand; Changxin's listing becomes a clear selling excuse, and speculative funds will use the negative news to concentrate selling. Storage likely to open lower tonight, may see a low open and pullback, rise and fall, no one-sided surge $MU $SKHYNIX $SNDK Leave your comments, what are your views? #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 What Gate means is: the 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD we paid according to the contract arrived in the "scammer's" wallet, and coincidentally, Gate's alpha automatically scraped ALD tokens, so the process couldn't be disclosed who connected to the token. In the end, the scammer's wallet was transferred to Gate alpha for an airdrop. Is that how it works? Hash is here, the answer is here When a project pays for it, registers tokens, and is then told "the person communicating with you is not one of us, and the project is logged into Gate"—this is already a credibility issue for Gate The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision early Thursday morning. Everyone is guessing—will they raise rates or not? Hawkish or dovish? But you might not have noticed: the market has already "voted" before the meeting even started. Let's start with oil prices. Last week, Brent crude briefly surged past $100 per barrel. The market panicked—"Second inflation wave is coming! The Fed will hike rates to death!" What happened? Iran and the US paused mutual attacks over the weekend, raising hopes for a ceasefire. Oil prices crashed 5% at Monday's open, with Brent dropping to around $92 and WTI falling below $85. The biggest inflation bomb defused itself before the FOMC meeting. Now, employment. Last week's initial jobless claims came in at 187,000. What does that mean? The lowest record since 1969. Economists had predicted a median of 210,000. The actual number was 23,000 lower than expected. In plain language: companies are not laying off workers. The economy is not in recession. The Fed doesn't need to cut rates early to save the market. Now consider this combination: Oil prices fall → Inflation expectations cool → Pressure on US Treasury yields to fall eases Strong employment → Economy "no landing" → Fed doesn't need emergency easing What the market fears most is never "no rate cut," but "forced rate hikes." Now that oil prices have collapsed and the inflation bomb has defused itself—how urgent is the need to raise rates? Where is Bitcoin now? Around $65,000. The Fear and Greed Index has risen from the month's low to about 39. Although still in the "fear" zone, it's relatively high for the month. The options market is even more direct—large call options are betting on BTC surging to $72,000 after the FOMC. Smart money is already pricing in the "oil price drop" factor. So, is Thursday's FOMC important? Yes. But what's important is not "whether to raise rates"—all 76 economists expect rates to remain unchanged. What's important is the "expectation gap." CME data shows the market sees a 36.3% chance of a rate hike in July and 55.2% in September. But Renaissance Macro's chief economist Dutta bluntly said—"Why not raise rates now?" If Fed's Waller speaks hawkishly, saying "inflation risks remain on the upside"—the market will reprice. If Waller acknowledges slowing inflation and falling oil prices—then $65,000 becomes the new floor. To be honest: Most people focus on the volatility on FOMC day. But the real game is "before the meeting." Oil prices have already fallen, employment data is out, and BTC has returned to 65k. Don't chase after the FOMC announcement. The meeting day is more about realizing good news or exhausting bad news. True alpha is seeing it before others are still guessing.*Setup $PONS* - Mua: $127.3K ở MCAP ∼$8.03M → cầm 15.8M $PONS - Đã chốt: +$135.7K realized - Còn lại: +$89.1K unrealized - Tổng PnL: +$98.9K (+36.07%) 💰 *Stats* - Win Rate: 47.46% → không cao nhưng ăn to - Balance giờ chỉ còn 0.006 ETH $12.31 → đã rút/xoay gần hết Cách chơi: all-in sớm, chốt lời nhanh, để lại 1 phần chạy lãi 📈 Kiểu "sniper + scale out" điển hình của smart money Cảnh báo: ví mới + size lớn = rủi ro rug/insider cao ⚠️ Đừng đuổi theo blind. Theo dõi dòng tiền tiếp theo thì ok hơn ❤️Tonight's Fed meeting, stop guessing the interest rate, guess people's minds instead Interest rate? Definitely won't change. Who doesn't know that? What really makes me uneasy is that with Warsh taking office, this is the first real showdown—not about whether to raise rates, but whether after the showdown they still let you "peek at the answers" in advance. I've been trading for so many years, and what I fear most isn't volatility, it's when the rules get changed. Powell's approach was basically "spoiler management": speeches, dot plots, various leaks, giving you the next three months' events in advance. The market was like anesthetized, volatility suppressed tightly, everyone comfortably lying flat and making money. Now Warsh is here, tearing up the script. "Don't ask me, ask the data." In plain language: from now on, don't expect to live off the Fed's leftovers. Every nonfarm payroll, every CPI, every initial jobless claim could smash or pump the market. This isn't just an interest rate cycle issue; it's a reset of the entire pricing logic. Today, I don't care about those 25 basis points at all—I only focus on three things, which are worth ten thousand times more than the interest rate number: First, how Warsh "qualifies" inflation. Does he stubbornly say "transitory," or does he admit "sticky"? The former is reassurance, the latter is a warning. Changing one word in wording can shake rate cut expectations. Don't listen to his chatter, listen to which word he emphasizes. Second, whether he still gives a "preview of the next episode." If the statement even deletes nonsense like "patiently wait," that's a naked way of telling you: guess yourself from now on, I'm not playing anymore. From that day, volatility premium must be re-evaluated, don't say I didn't warn you. Third, whether the balance sheet reduction is mentioned. Interest rates are the open gun, balance sheet reduction is the hidden arrow. Taking 95 billion out of the system monthly—that's the knife hanging over AI and BTC. Not mentioning it doesn't mean nothing's happening; mentioning it means breaking the window paper directly. My strategy has always been one sentence: don't bet on the news, bet on how the market reprices the news. Tonight's fattest move probably won't be at 2:00 when the rate is announced—but at 2:30, the second Warsh opens his mouth to answer the first question. At that moment, the market jumps from "known" to "unknown," chaos arises, spreads arise, and money is just waiting there to be picked up. I won't rush to bet on direction; I only do one thing: clear my positions clean, wait for the market to screw up first, then I go in to pick up the scraps. Because I know clearly, in this market that no longer hands you the answers, patience is worth a hundred times judgment, reaction is ten thousand times more reliable than prediction. Wait for the wind, move after the wind stops. Stop talking, watch the market. $ETH $BTC

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