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The meme season is 🔥 awakening again.
After a long bear market, everyone was waiting for a rebound in the major coins, but their expectations were off. Instead, established meme coins are leading the market.
24-hour top strongest sellers:
$SHIB +36% 🚀
$PEOPLE +19%
$ORDI +13%
$FLOKI +10% | $WIF +9% | $PE +8%
$PENGU +7% | $BONK +7% | $DOGE +5% | $GIGGLE +4%
Three key points to keep an eye on:
1. There is no new name. $SHIB, $DOGE, and $PEPE are coins from previous cycles. When risk-averse sentiment returns, funds first flow into the community and coins with verified liquidity.
2. The $SHIB movement is especially powerful. +36% increase in just one day. It's the classic SHIB style — an explosive rally after a long sideways move.
3. $ORDI is also noteworthy. As a leading figure in Bitcoin inscriptions, it moves alongside meme coins, showing that funds are circulating into undervalued high-beta assets.
Historically, meme coins are hit hardest during bear markets, but recover most quickly when market sentiment reverses.
Will this movement spread throughout the entire market, or will it remain a short-term cycle? Whether liquidity moves from meme coins to other sectors is key.
⚠️ This is not investment advice. Be sure to investigate yourself.
$SHIB $DOGE $PEPE #DailyOrbit #CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch$XINTC is partially visible in the screenshot and is trading around 87.90 USDT. Because its complete daily percentage, turnover and lower market information are obscured, verify all details on the live trading page before considering an entry.
📌 Tokenised Asset: Intel
💰 Visible Reference Price: 87.90 USDT
📈 Trade Direction: CONDITIONAL LONG
⚠️ Full Screenshot Data Not Visible
⏱ Suggested Chart: 15M–1H
🎯 EP: 87.46–88.34
✅ TP1: 89.22
✅ TP2: 90.54
✅ TP3: 92.30
🛑 SL: 86.14
TRADE PLAN:
Confirm the exact live price, daily movement, turnover and spread before trading.
Wait for XINTC to hold above the entry region and produce bullish confirmation. Avoid entering solely because the price appears close to support.
Take partial profit at TP1 and reduce the original risk.
Secure another portion at TP2 and trail the remaining position towards TP3.
A sustained breakdown below 86.14 cancels the bullish setup. Do not average down after the structure fails.
🔥 XINTC is approaching a decision zone. Confirmation above the entry region could open the route towards 89.22, 90.54 and 92.30. ALTCOIN MOMENTUM IS BACK! 🚨 While Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies are experiencing short-term weakness, several OKX-listed altcoins are attracting significant attention and outperforming the broader market. Today's market action suggests traders are rotating capital from large-cap assets into high-momentum altcoins, creating opportunities across the ecosystem. Top Performing OKX Coins Today $COTI +66% $QI +14% $ACH +14% $RIF +12% $DGB +12% $VANRY +8% $GTC +8% $XEC +6% These projects areLike those in malls where you suddenly get a 50% discount, crowds gather around, but very few actually dare to reach out and take them. Samsung fell 13.39% in one day, pulling back 41% from its peak. Such a level of decline in traditional markets is not just a matter of sentiment, but a recalculated price by big money.
The impact of such news on $BTC is not about whether it will crash in tandem, but whether risk appetite will continue to close. Currently, $BTC spot is 63,474, down 2.79% in 24 hours, with intraday highs and lows of 65,718 and 63,059, already following the low. More importantly, the contract/spot transaction ratio reached 10.3x, with spot trading only 1.019 billion and contracts 10.525 billion, meaning market dominance was in leverage, not spot buyers.
I haven't opened a new long position, only a 2% test position above 63,300, and set a stop loss at 62,920 for a long position; Conversely, if the counter-pull at 64,800 fails, I'll add 3% short and watch for a pullback around 63,600. The funding rate is still at +0.0002%, indicating the bulls haven't fully surrendered, but this rate is almost no premium and cannot support a smooth rebound.
At times like this, don't use "a big drop" as a reason to go long. In traditional markets, the massive stocks are often the first to be drained of the patient funds in risk assets. For me, I won't chase positions before the US market opens tonight, but will only go short after failed rebounds or light positions after sharp drops. If you're wrong, you get out, don't take the hit. $BTC #BTC
Don't cue me if you lose, treat me to a cup of coffee if you win.When people see "Robinhood Chain connecting to Chainlink," many people's first reaction is definitely:
Isn't this a positive LINK?
Looking at this kind of cooperation news now, I first ask three things:
What services did you use with Chainlink?
Is it already online, or has it only been a partnership?
Is there any real call volume later on?
At least this time, they didn't just release a collaboration poster; Chainlink's data sources have expanded to the Robinhood Chain mainnet.
But ultimately, whether there is value depends on whether on-chain stocks are traded and used after they go public.
$LINK#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 📈 Global Semiconductor Landscape Shifts: Amid South Korea's Stock Plunge, Changxin Tops A-Share Market on Debut
Today, July 28, 2026, two capital market news items together are especially worth pondering: South Korea's composite stock index plunged 8%, marking the largest single-day drop in recent years, with the semiconductor sector led by Samsung and SK Hynix leading the decline; meanwhile, domestic memory leader Changxin Memory officially debuted on the A-share market, topping the charts on its first day and becoming the most watched stock on the A-share market that day. This simultaneous drop and rise perfectly reflect the restructuring of the global memory chip industry.
Core Logic Behind South Korea's Stock Plunge: Semiconductor Cycle Turning Point Combined with Competitive Pressure
The major adjustment in the South Korean stock market is primarily triggered by the downturn in the semiconductor industry:
South Korea's economy is highly dependent on semiconductor exports, with memory chips accounting for nearly 70% of the global market share. In recent years, the global memory price surge cycle brought South Korea massive export revenue. However, with global consumer electronics demand recovery falling short of expectations, coupled with capacity releases from leading manufacturers, memory chip prices began to decline starting in Q2, directly impacting the profit expectations of South Korean semiconductor companies.
More critically, the technological breakthroughs and capacity ramp-up of domestic memory manufacturers are rapidly squeezing the premium space of Korean manufacturers. The excess profits Samsung and SK Hynix once earned through technological iteration and price monopoly are now being diverted by the rapidly rising domestic companies. The capital market's long-term growth expectations for Korean memory have clearly loosened.
Changxin's Debut Topping the Market Is a Vote of Confidence in Domestic Substitution
Changxin Memory's enthusiastic reception on its listing essentially reflects the capital market's direct recognition of its industry value:
As the domestic leader in DRAM memory chips, Changxin has already achieved mass production of 17nm DRAM, with yield and performance catching up to the international first tier. Its capacity continues to expand, having penetrated multiple core fields including consumer electronics, servers, and automotive electronics, completely breaking the overseas manufacturers' monopoly in the DRAM field.
Under the current trend of supply chain autonomy and control, domestic downstream manufacturers' willingness to procure domestic memory continues to rise. Changxin's market share is rapidly increasing, and its future growth certainty is very strong, which explains why it received high capital recognition on its first day of listing.
Behind Both Events Is the Shift of the Global Semiconductor Industry's Center of Gravity
The coincidence of these two events at the same time is no accident: for decades, the global semiconductor industry's dominance has shifted among the US, South Korea, and Taiwan. With continuous investment and technological breakthroughs in the domestic semiconductor industry chain, mainland China has now become the fastest-growing and largest incremental market in the global semiconductor industry. The breakthrough in the memory field is just the beginning. In the future, we will see more similar structural changes in other semiconductor sub-sectors.
Of course, it should be noted that our semiconductor industry still has a considerable gap compared to international top levels. There is a long way to go. Changxin's listing is just a milestone in the development of domestic memory. To maintain market share and continue closing the technology gap, sustained R&D investment and industry collaboration are still needed.
Have you recently been following semiconductor-related investments or industry trends? What are your different views on Changxin's listing and the South Korean stock market decline? $ETH #Storj Labs files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring, STORJ plunges
Brothers, this news is stunning—anything really can happen in the crypto world
As soon as news broke that Storj Labs had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring, STORJ tokens plummeted—this reaction was very real. The official statement says the network is running normally and services are uninterrupted, but the market votes with their feet, showing everyone knows in their hearts: the "soul" of a decentralized network may still exist, but its "body" is already tied to the debts of corporate legal entities.
I've always felt that there is no real decoupling between decentralized networks and centralized companies. Network code can be open-sourced, nodes can be decentralized, but development, operation, upgrades, and compliance all depend on the company behind it. This Storj restructuring precisely exposes the vulnerability of this "pseudo-decoupling" — if the company collapses, even if the network is still running, the token's value anchor collapses.
After all, token holders are not just technical users, but stakeholders in the project ecosystem. How should token equity be handled during corporate debt restructuring? This time, Storj proposed allowing token holders to participate in the restructured company's equity. Although this may seem innovative, it actually tightens the bond between the token and the fate of the company's legal representative. This is not decoupling; it is clearly a new form of "hooking."
I've experienced something similar myself. Previously, he held tokens from a decentralized storage project, but the project team halted development due to a capital chain break, causing the token price to be halved. I struggled for a long time: clearing out fears of a rebound, holding fears of losing zero. In the end, I chose to wait for a small rebound and then liquidate. After clearing, the project was completely halted, and the tokens became nothing.
That experience made me realize that tokens in decentralized projects are essentially "variants of company equity"—when a company runs into trouble, tokens are hard to remain unaffected.
This has completely changed my view of asset allocation for "decentralized projects with centralized corporate entities." I used to think "decentralization" was a moat, but now I realize that the health of the company's core is the real "safety cushion" for these assets.
When I look at projects like this in the future, I won't just focus on network data and token models; I will pay more attention to the company's financial status, debt structure, and operational capability. After all, the network can be decentralized, but the risks do not; Tokens can circulate, but value does not arise out of thin air.$XBMNR is trading near $17.25 and consolidating after recent moves. Support is $16.80, then $16.00. Resistance is $17.80, followed by $19.00. Targets 🎯: $19 → $20.50 → $22.00. Next move: A breakout above $17.80 may trigger fresh momentum. Pro tip: Watch volume before trusting any breakout.
#FOMCRateWatch #CeasefireHitsCrude #RWAPerpsHit470B #停火预期兑现，WTI原油期货单日跌8.68%
Damn! Oil prices plunged over 8% in a single day!
This is not some "comprehensive peace arrival" fairy tale; it’s purely the previous group blindly speculating on war premiums finally vomiting out those premiums, leaving a complete mess.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell nearly 12% over three days from last week's high near $94, with Monday’s single-day drop a brutal 8%+ plunge. Brent was even worse, crashing nearly 9.5% intraday.
The reason is straightforward and blunt: Trump ordered a pause, putting a stop to 13 consecutive days of airstrikes to give some room for negotiations. Iran followed suit, saying if you stop, we won’t attack either. The market had been betting on conflict escalation and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil from around $83 to over $94.
Now the premium is being fully given back, so such a drop is no surprise. Strait traffic hasn’t truly resumed yet, and the Houthis are still causing trouble—don’t think this is over. Trump said talks are going well with a chance for an agreement, but Iran’s Foreign Ministry immediately denied any direct negotiations, saying talks "have nothing to do with the US." This kind of “tacit ceasefire” that can flip at any moment is miles away from a real signed peace deal.
Many KOLs on Twitter have seen through this: it’s a tactical pause, not a trend reversal. Some bluntly say, “Don’t buy peace,” as the pause could be shattered by a single strike, and a violent oil price rebound is entirely possible.
With oil crashing like this, risk assets should theoretically get a breather and inflation pressure ease. Instead, Bitcoin crashed along with tech stocks and gold, breaking the usual inverse correlation.
Crypto traders on Twitter say: geopolitical easing should be bullish, but Bitcoin missed out due to bleak prospects for related legislation, tech stock fragmentation, and risk aversion ahead of the Fed meeting.
Some point out that the oil price drop reduces the urgency for rate hikes, but strong employment and persistent core inflation mean the market’s imagined "liquidity improvement" can’t hold up the situation. The good news was priced in too early, leaving only a mess now.
The real drama is still this week’s Fed meeting. Interest rate swaps show the odds of a 25 basis point hike still wavering. The oil price drop does give some dovish room, but don’t expect Powell to suddenly soften just because oil fell for three days. Since taking office, he’s been tight-lipped; strong jobs data and inflation still above target mean his tone will likely remain cautious.
Some traders on Twitter have made their stance clear: either an unexpectedly hawkish tone will hit risk assets again, or a mild tone means don’t get too excited about a short-term rebound. Those heavily betting on direction before the meeting are basically setting themselves up to be chopped.
In short, this oil price plunge is a correction of the war premium, not a complete trend reversal.
No ceasefire agreement signed, the Strait not open, both sides could restart fighting anytime, and technicals near key support—if the Middle East flares up again, combined with the Fed’s decision, the rebound could come faster than you think.
What the market lacks most now is certainty. Trump could change his mind anytime, Iran could deny talks anytime, and the Fed’s tone could contradict expectations anytime—any one of these could instantly flip the market.
Wait for a real agreement, wait for the Fed dust to settle, wait until the direction is no longer guesswork—then it’s not too late to act. Chasing rallies and panicking sells now will most likely leave you utterly confused in the end.🚨 THE MARKET JUST GOT A SERIOUS WAKE-UP CALL — AND RISK ASSETS ARE FEELING IT. The selloff started with chip stocks… and quickly spread across global markets. 📉 $NVDA dropped 4.4% 📉 $MU lost nearly 5% 📉 $SNDK plunged more than 10% Then the pressure hit Asia: 🇯🇵 Japan's Nikkei fell more than 4% 🇰🇷 South Korea's KOSPI crashed 10%, triggering another circuit breaker And crypto wasn't immune. ₿ Bitcoin briefly slipped below $63K as investors rushed to reduce risk. So what's behind the sudThe US CLARITY Act has been shelved! The US Senate has prioritized handling the Russia sanctions bill, meaning this year's progress has come to a pause. Originally, the bill's progress would have attracted increased capital in the crypto market, but now there's one less positive news. However, whales and sharks accumulated nearly 19,700 Bitcoins in 8 days. However, retail investors' enthusiasm for bottom-fishing has waned. More people are watching and waiting for the Federal Reserve. $BTC spot Bitcoin ETFs are gradually flowing out, while $ETH and Ethereum ETFs are continuously flowing in. It seems that Ethereum has recently attracted more attention than Bitcoin? BlackRock's ETHA attracted $96.3 million in a single week, while its peer IBIT saw a net outflow of $95.5 million. The structural signal of institutional funds rotating from BTC to ETH further clarifies that the situation in the US, Iran, and the Middle East has eased, saving a major drop and boosting Bitcoin and Ethereum. Notably, the recent chain reaction triggered by the US stock market has attracted large amounts of capital into the US tokenization market, and those who are waiting for mainstream currencies have also joined the US market, leading to ETH's 2000 breakthrough and BTC's 640,000 stabilization battle has never been able to defeat #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 "DataHunter Macro Research Report" · July 28, 2026
Understanding the Market Through Data
Less than 36 hours remain until the FOMC interest rate decision announcement, yet the market is caught in the most severe divergence seen in nearly two years.
CME FedWatch shows a 63.7% probability of holding rates steady in July and a 36.3% chance of a 25 basis point hike. Two weeks ago—when June CPI posted the largest monthly drop since April 2020—the market’s bet on a July hike was only about 10%.
What happened in just 14 days?
1. A Direct Clash of Two Logics
Hiking Logic: Oil prices + tariffs + AI, a triple shock reversing the inflation narrative.
Brent crude briefly hit $100 per barrel last Monday. The "rearview mirror" of June’s cooling CPI was shattered by the "windshield" of soaring oil prices. Meanwhile, the AI investment boom continues to drive energy and labor demand, and a new round of tariff threats has emerged. These three factors combined have completely reversed the inflation narrative.
Hold Steady Logic: June’s CPI cooling buys room for caution.
Evercore ISI bluntly stated that hiking immediately after June’s improved inflation data "would seem strange," especially since the Fed can still choose to act in September if necessary. June’s nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000, providing ammunition for the cautious camp.
These two logics have created a hawk-dove standoff within the FOMC—hawks: Dallas Fed President Logan and Cleveland Fed President Harker (both voting members) have publicly called for a hike; doves: New York Fed President Williams believes inflation may have peaked and will gradually decline over the next few quarters.
2. Trump’s "Divine Assist": Calling for the World’s Lowest Interest Rates 48 Hours Before
Just one day before the FOMC meeting opened, Trump spoke live from Air Force One.
He openly supported Waller—"Kevin is great"—but simultaneously accused other Fed Board members of being "very political" and possibly having "bad intentions." He forcefully demanded that the U.S. should have the "world’s lowest interest rates," with GDP annualized growth rates that should have reached 8% to 12%.
This is not Trump’s first call for "the world’s lowest interest rates"—he said so in February this year. But this time, it was said 48 hours before the FOMC, at the presidential plane’s stairs, into a live microphone. The weight is completely different.
The market’s reaction was subtle. Trump praised Waller while pressuring for rate cuts, but Waller has consistently refused to provide forward guidance since taking office, clearly stating that every policy meeting will involve "real-time" changes. The president’s pressure and the chair’s "opacity" style form a strange hedge—the market cannot get a definitive signal from either side.
3. Citadel Securities’ "Contrarian Bet": The Only Major Institution Daring to Bet on a Rate Hike
While almost all mainstream investment banks base their judgment on "holding steady," Citadel Securities made a contrarian choice—betting that the Fed will unexpectedly hike 25 basis points this week.
The logic: Waller needs a surprise hike to strengthen his credibility in fighting inflation and to break the "shackles" of forward guidance. Citigroup’s trading team bought July FOMC contracts, a position that profits if rates remain unchanged.
These two opposing positions perfectly represent the core market divergence—not whether to hike, but what kind of Fed Waller wants to build.
4. Thursday’s "Super Data Day": GDP + PCE Combo
At 20:30 Beijing time on July 30 (Thursday), the U.S. Q2 GDP preliminary estimate and June PCE data will be released simultaneously. The GDP and PCE combination may be the most important data pairing this week.
If GDP growth slows but PCE exceeds expectations, it signals the worst "stagflation" scenario—the economy slows while inflation remains stubborn. If GDP is robust and PCE falls, it confirms the "hold steady" logic. The market will digest both the FOMC decision and these two data sets, so volatility is very likely to be high.
5. Reflections on the Crypto Market
As of 13:42 Beijing time, BTC is at $63,494.8, down 3.1%, hitting the lowest level since July 17. ETH is down 3.6%. Over 160,000 liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, totaling $686 million.
Orbit Markets co-founder pointed out that BTC is mainly affected by rising Fed rate hike expectations and AI-related credit risk concerns. The next downside target to watch is $62,000, with strong support expected near $60,000.
Nvidia’s five-year credit default swap (CDS) price recorded the largest single-day increase on July 27 ever recorded—when the chip giant’s debt insurance costs are soaring, risk appetite is contracting across the board.
Risk Warning: This article is a research note and does not constitute investment advice.
DataHunter | Understanding the Market Through DataChip Collapse Together! Nvidia and SanDisk plunged, $BTC also plunged in tandem, hiding the same negative factor
1. Last night, US chip stocks collectively plunged
Last night, the semiconductor sector collectively faced heavy selling pressure:
1. Nvidia plunged nearly 5%, with the market questioning the long return cycle for trillion-yuan AI infrastructure investments. AI bubble panic is heating up, and institutions are taking profits and exiting;
2. Micron and SanDisk fell even harder, with SanDisk plunging over 11% in a single day. Storage chips had previously seen huge gains, and combined with expectations of domestic storage capacity expansion, supply-demand logic reversed and bulls trampled and fled.
3. Wall Street's major bears continue to increase their semiconductor short positions, coupled with rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, leading to widespread selling of high-valuation tech assets.
2. BTC weakens in sync with the core linkage logic
Many people overlook a key point: currently, BTC is highly pegged to US tech stocks, both considered high-risk speculative assets.
Institutional funds have allocated positions uniformly, and during panic sell-offs in Nasdaq and chip stocks, they simultaneously reduced their exposure to the crypto market, directly driving BTC to plunge.
As long as sentiment in the AI sector continues to weaken, it will be difficult for the crypto market to break out of an independent upward trend, and the risk of large-scale market movement must be factored into trading decisions.
$NVDA $SNDK
#韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share market on its first day
#财报观察员: OKX's masterclass premieres tonight, helping you understand the financial reports of the four major tech giants
#英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保 The audit passed≠ secure.
Within 72 hours of launch: Aria was liquidated $12.3M, Tessera DAO token plummeted 99%, BYToken was attacked by a flash loan combination. Auditing is only the first step, not the last.
#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 $XAVGO is trading around $378.21 after a negative daily performance. The price is sitting near a possible recovery region, but buyers must regain control before the long setup becomes active.
📌 Reference Price: $378.21
📈 Direction: LONG
⏱ Suggested Timeframe: 15M–1H
🎯 EP: $377.05–$379.35
✅ TP1: $383.90
✅ TP2: $389.55
✅ TP3: $397.10
🛑 SL: $370.60
Trade Management:
• Wait for a confirmed bullish reaction from the EP zone.
• Secure 25%–30% at TP1.
• Move SL toward the entry after TP1.
• Take additional profit at TP2.
• Hold the final portion for TP3 with a trailing stop.
• Avoid entering while price is forming consecutive bearish candles.
The bullish idea is invalid if price closes decisively below $370.60. Use controlled risk because the asset is currently showing negative daily momentum.
🚀 A successful recovery could place the $390–$397 region directly in sight. No emotional entry, no oversized position—just confirmation and execution. The core news in the gold market mainly revolves around the easing of geopolitical tensions and the game before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting:
The biggest variable in the market currently is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to be announced early Wednesday morning. This meeting is called "the most difficult to predict in many years," with significant market divergence. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is about 63.7%, but the chance of an unexpected 25 basis point hike has also risen to 36.3%. Additionally, expectations for a rate hike in September are even stronger, with the probability rising to about 80%. Before policy clarity, both bulls and bears are cautious, lacking momentum for a one-sided breakout.
The US-Iran conflict, which previously supported gold prices, has taken a dramatic turn. The US has suspended its planned large-scale attack on Iran, and both sides have signaled "positive communication." This easing significantly alleviates market concerns about energy supply disruptions, leading to the withdrawal of previously inflowing safe-haven funds and cooling the risk premium on gold.
Affected by the easing Middle East situation, international oil prices plunged sharply, with Brent crude crashing over 8%, falling below the $90 mark. The oil price collapse unexpectedly became a "surprise ally" for gold: inflation worries eased, market expectations for further Fed tightening decreased, which relieved upward pressure on real interest rates and provided a phase bottom support for gold prices.
Recent economic data has been strong, with June core durable goods orders growing month-over-month above expectations, and the AI investment boom helping to ease economic drag. Strong economic data reinforces the view of US economic resilience, pushing the US dollar index to a near one-month high, directly suppressing dollar-denominated gold.
The gold market this afternoon is at a crossroads of "short-term headwinds" and "long-term tailwinds." Although the retreat of geopolitical risk sentiment and high interest rate expectations limit the rebound's height, continuous gold purchases by global central banks and physical demand in Asia have helped gold hold the key $4000/ounce level. Currently, market trading is quiet, with everyone holding their breath waiting for the Fed's "anchor star" to land. $XAU #韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 Market breadth is completely dead right now. Only 7 lonely tokens are carrying the entire altcoin market on their backs. The advance/decline ratio for small-cap coins is sitting at 0.25, meaning there are 4 losing coins for every single winner. That is brutal. Only these 7 low-cap altcoins still maintain a solid bullish volume structure. Everything else is slowly bleeding out due to weak liquidity and fading buying pressure. The 7 strong ones are: $ONDO, $TRX, $ZEC, $POL, $LTC, $DOGE, $ARK The 9$XASTS is trading around $57.18 after experiencing selling pressure. This is a higher-volatility setup, so confirmation is essential. Buyers must defend the $57 region before a recovery toward the upside targets becomes more likely.
📌 Reference Price: $57.18
📈 Direction: LONG
⚠️ Volatility: High
⏱ Suggested Timeframe: 15M–1H
🎯 EP: $57.00–$57.35
✅ TP1: $58.05
✅ TP2: $58.90
✅ TP3: $60.05
🛑 SL: $56.00
Trade Management:
• Use a smaller position because of higher volatility.
• Enter after a bullish candle confirms support.
• Take partial profit at TP1.
• Move SL to entry after TP1.
• Protect additional profit near TP2.
• Allow the final portion to target the psychological $60 level.
The setup is invalid below $56.00. Do not average down if the stop-loss is reached.
⚡ XASTS can move quickly once momentum returns. The $60 region is the main prize, but disciplined risk control remains the real edge. Why did BTC fall with oil prices falling?
This is precisely a classic case of "positive news already priced in in advance."
Polymarket data shows that the market is betting on a 75% chance that the US and Iran will reach a ceasefire before August 31. When the whole world knows "a ceasefire is coming," how much of the war premium is left in oil prices to fall? "Others are greedy and ceasefire, you take over from the summit"—Bitcoin briefly surged back to $65,000 over the weekend, with many traders seeing it as a starting point. However, at the start of the Asia-Pacific session on Monday, BTC fell from above 65,600 and fell below 64,000, with over 160,000 people liquidated.
Another key point is: the market script has changed. Last week, the market was trading "geopolitics"—oil price fluctuations dominated everything; Right now, the market is trading with a "hawkish Fed"—no matter how oil prices move, the shadow of a rate hike looms overhead. Before this FOMC meeting, the swap market showed a rate hike probability of about 36%, and Castle Securities even warned that Walsh might "unexpectedly raise rates."
---
🧭 The impact on BTC on both bulls and bears
There are many benefits
· Cooling inflation expectations: Falling oil prices eased short-term inflation concerns, weakening the urgency for further Fed rate hikes
· U.S. Treasury yields retreat: The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from its peak to around 4.65%.
On the negative side
· The positive news has already been priced in early: Bitcoin surged above 65,000 over the weekend, and after the news arrived, a "sell fact" rally emerged
· The ceasefire is "as fragile as an A4 sheet of paper": Trump has clearly stated that "if talks fail, very tough military action will be resumed," while Iran denies any direct negotiations with the United States
· Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has not yet recovered: daily merchant ship traffic remains below 10, and shipping bottlenecks have not been resolved
$ETH $BTC $AEON #停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day Case Law or Legislation? This Time, a U.S. Judge Has Given Prediction Markets a Lifeline
August 1.
Minnesota's prediction market ban was set to take effect on this day.
Violators faced up to 5 years in prison plus a $10,000 fine.
Kalshi and Polymarket had only 4 days left.
After 4 days, opening these sites in Minnesota would be a crime.
Then came a reversal.
On July 27, federal judge Katherine Menendez signed a preliminary injunction.
The state law was suspended.
The platforms continued operating.
The judge’s exact words were: the plaintiff is "likely to succeed at trial."
Why?
Because prediction market contracts structurally fall under CFTC-regulated "swap" products. And the Commodity Exchange Act grants the CFTC "exclusive jurisdiction."
Federal law takes precedence over state law.
This sentence is the soul of the entire case.
Do you understand now?
Minnesota says this is gambling — it should be under my control.
The CFTC says this is a financial derivative — it should be under my control.
The court says — federal jurisdiction.
But something even more interesting is happening in another direction.
On July 16, the French gambling regulator ordered ISPs to block the Polymarket website.
The reason: it could cause users significant gambling losses, and some bets might be manipulated.
The same Polymarket.
The U.S. court says: this is a financial product, regulated federally.
The French regulator says: this is gambling, block it.
Two paths, two destinies.
Europe is moving toward classifying it as gambling — each country has its own gambling laws, and prediction markets could be shut down as casinos in every country.
The U.S. is moving toward unified federal regulation — the CFTC is developing a review framework for prediction markets, and industry groups are calling for a unified federal regulatory system.
One is tearing down walls, the other is building them.
So the next question is only one:
Will the legal status of prediction markets in the U.S. be established through case law or legislation?
Case law path: Kalshi and Polymarket continue litigation, winning state by state. Minnesota started the trend; Rhode Island, New Jersey, and California are following with similar bans. If federal courts ultimately rule that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction, all state laws automatically become invalid.
Legislative path: The CFTC’s ongoing rulemaking is finalized, and Congress passes a bill clarifying the federal regulatory status of prediction markets.
Case law is fast but fragmented. Legislation is slow but definitive.
To be honest —
Minnesota’s case won more than just a lawsuit.
It won the right to define "what exactly is a prediction market."
Is it gambling? Then it dies under each state’s gambling laws.
Is it a financial derivative? Then it lives under the CFTC’s regulatory framework.
This time the judge said: it is a financial derivative.
Finally, two more points —
The U.S. is moving forward, Europe is retreating.
The same thing is defined as completely different species in two places.
This is not a technical issue.
This is a map of regulatory arbitrage being redrawn.
What do you think — will prediction markets ultimately establish a foothold in the U.S. through case law or legislation?
$ETH $BTC $AEON
#美国暂停预测市场州级禁令 Oil prices have crashed.
WTI crude oil futures plunged 8.68% yesterday, closing at $82.62. Brent also dropped sharply from above $100 to around $88. Such a decline is extremely rare in the oil market; a nearly 9% single-day drop last happened back in 2020.
What happened? The ceasefire expectation was realized.
On July 24, Trump ordered the US military to stop strikes against Iran, ending 13 consecutive days of air raids. The US permanent representative to the UN said on the 26th that this was to make room for diplomatic negotiations, and Iran confirmed that communication between both sides had not been cut off. Oil prices had been soaring since early July, with Brent briefly breaking $100, but now that expectations have shifted, all the gains have been given back.
The prediction market's pricing for a US-Iran ceasefire before August 31 has risen to 75%. The market works like this: when prices rise, it prices in the worst-case scenario; when prices fall, it prices in the best-case scenario, never staying in the middle.
Back to the crypto market.
The oil price crash is good news for crypto. I've explained this logic many times before—oil prices drive inflation, inflation forces rate hikes, and rate hikes suppress risk assets. Now that oil prices have collapsed, inflation expectations cool down, rate hike expectations retreat, which is positive for BTC, tech stocks, and all risk assets.
Last night, the Dow rose 0.51%, and the crypto market also strengthened in the early Asia-Pacific session. The logic chain is clear: ceasefire expectation → oil price crash → inflation cools → rate hike expectations weaken → risk assets repriced. If oil prices can hold steady above $80 and not rebound to $100, the macro environment will be much friendlier to crypto.
But note one thing: expectation trading always runs faster than reality. Polymarket's ceasefire expectation is already at 75%, and oil prices have already priced in this expectation. Next, it depends on whether a concrete agreement can be reached, not just verbal promises. Every step down in oil prices comes with a footnote that it can be reversed at any time.
The macro benefits from the oil price crash are fermenting. If US stocks continue to rise tonight, Bitcoin has a chance to surge.
What do you think?
#停火预期兑现，WTI原油期货单日跌8.68% $BTC $ETH $SOL $SNDK SanDisk plunged 11.02% that day, with heavy volume and a one-sided decline, nearly halving within a month. Changxin's listing shattered expectations of overseas storage monopolies, AI computing power spending slowed, and with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaching, profit-taking at high levels fleeing and causing a stampede. The market has ample downward momentum, and the short-term weakness is hard to reverse, with very limited room for rebound. #韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share market for the first day, with a complete intraday performance. SanDisk started a unilateral high-volume plunge throughout the day, opening directly lower under pressure and showing no significant rebound throughout the day, with continuous capital selling and flight. Open: $1462.99; Close: $1278.23, down 11.02% in a single day, down $158.33; Intraday high was $1462.99, lowest dropped to $1222.01, a fluctuation of over 18%; The total turnover for the day was $27.535 billion, with a turnover rate as high as 14.55%, reflecting a massive volume drop driven by high-level chips being cashed out. Compared to the all-time high of $2,354 in June, the stock price has nearly halved in just over a month, with market value shrinking sharply, completely ending the bull market surge in AI storage that sparked the first half of the year. Five Core Reasons for the Sharp Drop 1. Changxin Technology goes public on the A-share market, breaking the global storage monopoly (the trigger). Domestic Changxin officially began mass production of DRAM and raised 100 billion yuan to expand capacity. The pricing influence of Samsung, SK Hynix, SanDisk, and Micron—three overseas storage oligopolies—has been greatly weakened. The market predicts that flash memory capacity will be fully oversupplied by 2027, with NAND chips sellingThe ruling was: the federation is greater than the state. The forecast market in the United States has come alive
August 1st.
Only four days remain until Minnesota's most severe betting market ban in the U.S. takes effect.
Violators face up to 5 years in prison and a fine of 10,000 USD.
Employees of Kalshi and Polymarket could become "felons" overnight.
And then? On July 27, a federal judge issued a single injunction, halting everything.
Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison was furious: "This is gambling!" Minnesota has the authority to kick out predatory gambling apps! ”
Judge Katherine Menendez's answer was summed up in one sentence:
Federal law takes precedence, state law takes a side.
Let's briefly explain just how big this matter really is.
In May this year, the Minnesota legislature passed the nation's first ban specifically targeting prediction markets. The coverage is extremely broad—sports, weather, pop culture, war, death, all are prohibited from gambling.
This is no joke. It is the most severe state-level crackdown in the United States.
Kalshi and Polymarket, together with the CFTC, filed a direct lawsuit in federal court.
At the heart of the lawsuit lies in one question: Who really controls the prediction market?
The state government said: This is gambling, under my control.
The federation said: This is a "swap" financial product under the CFTC's jurisdiction.
On July 27, the ruling was made.
The judge ruled: Kalshi and Polymarket US are both CFTC-designated contract markets. The forecasting market contracts they offer are structurally classified as "swap" products regulated by the CFTC.
Under the Commodity Exchange Act, the CFTC has "exclusive jurisdiction" over such transactions.
Three words: Federation, big.
And the judge was even harsher—if the enforcement of Minnesota law is not suspended, it will cause "irreparable harm" to Kalshi and Polymarket.
What does 'irreparable' mean? If the ban takes effect on August 1, the platform will be forced to shut down its Mingzhou business, resulting in user loss and damage to its reputation—these losses cannot be recovered even if they lose money afterward.
So the court immediately stopped it. The case continues to be heard, but the injunction is not enforced for now.
What does this ruling mean?
This means the compliance logic of the U.S. forecasting market may be completely rewritten.
Currently, multiple U.S. states are targeting prediction markets under the pretext of "gambling"—New York, Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Rhode Island, New Jersey, California, all of which are taking action.
But the logic behind this ruling is: if the prediction city contract is recognized as a federal matter under CFTC jurisdiction, then state bans based on gambling laws will systematically lose their legal footing.
In other words—
This is not a victory for Minnesota alone.
This is the first judicial confirmation of the entire logic of "federal regulation replacing fragmented injunctions in 50 states."
Interestingly, at the same time, Europe is taking a different path.
The French regulatory authority directly ordered the ISP to block Polymarket, classifying it as illegal gambling.
One domain is sealed, another is released.
The global regulatory map of the forecast market is torn in the exact opposite direction.
To be honest—
Predicting the market's compliance journey in the U.S. has reached this point, which has not been easy.
In 2024, the CFTC also wants to ban Kalshi from providing election markets.
In 2026, the CFTC will retaliate against states to protect forecasting markets.
From a regulatory "rival" to an "ally" in regulation.
Kalshi's valuation target has already been raised to $40 billion. In the first half of 2026, the total market transaction volume is forecasted to exceed $150 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1200%.
This is no longer a niche gambling game.
This is a track that is becoming financial infrastructure.
A few final words—
The final verdict on the Minnesota case has not yet been announced. This is only an initial ban.
But the direction is already clear.
The federal government is using the Commodity Exchange Act as a hammer to break down the "gambling bans" that each of the 50 states have been independent.
If the final ruling confirms federal priority—then the compliance landscape of the forecast market in the U.S. will be finalized through federal legislation.
Fifty states, one set of rules.
Instead of 50 states and 50 ways to die.
This is not the end. But this is the most important turn so far.
$ETH $BTC
#美国暂停预测市场州级禁令 🔥🔥July 28 | Why did the Korean stock market plunge? Five overlapping logics! The downtrend channel has opened
#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股
① Overnight drag from US tech stocks: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 2% on Monday, hitting its lowest close since May 20. Nvidia dropped about 5%, SanDisk fell over 11%, and SK Hynix ADR dropped more than 7%. Korean stocks followed the decline directly.
② Intensified competition in China's semiconductor sector: Changxin Memory (CXMT) made a heavy debut on the A-share market and surged sharply, raising market concerns that the rise of Chinese memory chips will erode South Korea's market share. There are also reports that China has started producing self-developed DUV chip manufacturing equipment. Analysts believe this concern may be exaggerated, but the short-term sentiment impact is huge.
③ Continued panic over AI capital expenditure: Nvidia and SK Group reached a $500 billion AI cooperation deal and provided up to $250 billion financing guarantees for OpenAI, intensifying market doubts about the sustainability of the AI capital expenditure cycle. Concerns about crowded stock positions and rising corporate debt levels are deepening.
④ Forced liquidation of leveraged funds: The Korean market had previously risen too much, with a large amount of leveraged ETFs and concentrated holdings around SK Hynix. When the stock price reversed, leveraged funds were forced to liquidate, creating a vicious cycle of decline → liquidation → further decline. As of July 24, the margin loan balance had dropped to 32.67 trillion KRW, down more than 15% from the peak.
⑤ Macro pressure: US Treasury yields continue to rise, with the market expecting possibly two more rate hikes this year. Uncertainty over US-Iran conflicts also weighs on the market.
$SKHYNIX $SAMSUNG $KORU At midday, Samsung Electronics fell about 12%, and SK Hynix dropped 12.7%. Foreign investors recorded a single-day net sale of 3.55 trillion won in KOSPI, a net sale of 1.14 trillion won in the futures market, and retail investors with a net purchase of 3.52 trillion won, almost all of it. After the two major chip stocks plunged, their combined weighting in KOSPI fell below 50%. The past half day of the Korean stock market has truly been a storm of bloodshed. After thoroughly studying and analyzing the Korean stock market this week, I found that this crash was not caused by a single factor, but rather a reaction from multiple factors to multiple shocks. Next, I will break down the reasons behind this drop and the key variables to watch out for going forward. First layer: The trigger—the formation of China's supply narrative. The news of Changxin's IPO and the mass production of domestically produced DUV instantly connected the market into a story: China's storage capacity will expand without being constrained by equipment bottlenecks, then the DRAM cycle will peak, eroding Samsung/SK Hynix's pricing power and excess profits. Korean media directly attributed the plunge to "concerns about catching up with the three storage giants triggered by the CXMT listing." Concerns about Nvidia's circular financing have resurfaced. Nvidia is advancing a $750 billion AI infrastructure deal and is reportedly negotiating about $250 billion in financing guarantees for OpenAI's Ohio data center. When upstream chip manufacturers provide credit endorsement for downstream customers' procurement, the authenticity of AI demand becomes questionable, and HBM is the most advanced and dependent segment in demand narrative in this chain. SK Hylli🚨 Latest news:
🇰🇷 The main players behind this sharp fluctuation are not Bitcoin, Ethereum, or even various meme coins, but the Korean stock market.
Market volatility has exceeded the expectations of most people, and global capital markets are entering a new phase. The previously accepted "safe assets" are no longer absolutely safe.
South Korea's KOSPI plunged over 10% intraday today, triggering circuit breakers for the eighth time this year. The two heavyweight chip giants, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, both fell over 10%. Coupled with expectations of domestic substitution in memory chips, loosening profitability logic in the AI industry chain, and concentrated liquidations of high-leverage funds on the market, the index has already pulled back more than 30% from its previous high.
The Asia-Pacific market as a whole has been fluctuating, with Nikkei and Taiwan weighted markets weakening sharply, while BTC and ETH in the crypto market both fell less than 1%, showing relative resilience.
Currently, global macro liquidity is tightening and industry patterns are being restructured, the fragility of traditional equity markets continues to be exposed, and overall market risk appetite is declining. It is essential to remain cautious and strictly control positions. #韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share market on its first day Everything is getting hit right now.
US chip names rolled over overnight.
$NVDA down 4.4 percent.
$MU dropped close to 5 percent.
$SNDK got crushed more than 10 percent.
Asia followed hard.
Japan's Nikkei fell over 4 percent.
South Korea's KOSPI crashed 10 percent and hit another circuit breaker.
Crypto felt it too. $BTC dropped below 63000 as risk came off across the board.
Why is this happening. Three things at once.
First, China started producing its own advanced chipmaking machines. That cuts reliance on $ASML and puts pressure on the entire global chip supply chain.
Second, $NVDA's 750 billion dollar deal flow is spooking people. The fear is that $AI companies are basically funding the same customers who are buying their chips. That does not look sustainable.
Third, the Fed. Tomorrow's meeting just got a lot more important. Rate hike odds jumped from about 16 percent to nearly 38 percent in a week. Markets are already pricing it in. $BTC below 63000 is part of that reaction.
And it does not stop there.
$MSFT, $META, $AAPL, and $AMZN all report earnings in the next 72 hours.
Citadel Securities is even calling for a surprise hike, saying Chair Kevin Warsh could move to protect his inflation credibility, even though most economists still expect a hold.
China policy, the Fed, and Big Tech earnings are all colliding on the $AI trade at the same time.
The next 72 hours are critical. This could be a sharp correction that resets, or it could be the start of something much bigger.
Stay sharp. Stay liquid. Buckle up.
#CeasefireHitsCrude #FOMCRateWatch #CXMTDebutShockwave $AEON $BTC $LAB Interns earn more than me by trading cryptocurrencies
I used to think it was a joke
Until today, seeing this data
South Korean retail investors net bought 5 trillion won worth of US stocks for the month
Converted to nearly 4 billion US dollars
Where did this money come from?
Isn't it all cut out from the Korean stock market?
KOSPI fell 10%, triggering circuit breakers
SK Hynix fell 11% in one day
Samsung fell 8%
Where did the money from Korean retail investors sell stocks go?
He went to the US stock market
But I'll tell you how the real money-making people play
They are not cutting meat on the floor
Instead, they hedged before the crash
For example, SK Hynix's long position was liquidated by $80 million
On-chain holdings plunge by 14%
Where did the liquidated money go?
It was eaten up by whales shorting on-chain
Then guess what
Not just SK Hynix
The SKHX flash crash directly broke Hyperliquid's backup liquidator
Over 26 million yuan was liquidated
What does this indicate?
This shows that someone had already calculated the clearing points in advance
Then they just wait for the market to break out and harvest the profits
What does this have to do with interns?
It has a big connection
Because in this market,
The ones who truly make money are not those who follow the candlesticks
They understand on-chain data and liquidation mechanisms
That intern might not be a real intern
He was just someone who studied on-chain liquidation mechanisms earlier than most people
During this crash, tens of millions of dollars were triggered by on-chain liquidations
Those liquidators had already set up their nets long ago
Wait for the prey to come crashing into it on its own
So my judgment is
Stop relying on sensation to speculate on coins
This market has long been goneThe pace of institutional Treasury holdings has clearly slowed. MicroStrategy temporarily paused its Bitcoin $BTC buying activities, while Bitmine still insists on weekly ETH purchases, but its holdings have shrunk significantly, seemingly maintaining a record of continuous buying.
Last week's two major treasury operations were:
- Micro Strategy: Did not buy or sell BTC last week, held positions unchanged, raised $525 million through additional stock issuance to replenish US dollar reserves, and now cash reserves have reached $3.75 billion, enough to cover 25 months of preferred stock interest expenses.
- Bitmine: Bought only 9,946 ETH last week, worth about $18.87 million, maintaining the weekly coin buying rhythm since treasury launch with small accumulations.
Overall, the phase of large-scale buying by institutions has temporarily ended, and short-term incremental buying has somewhat subsided.40 smart money wallets net bought $ANSEM this week for +$100K. price move? -0.2%. dead flat, money's in and the chart hasn't even noticed.
sharper part: a month ago these same cohorts were net sellers, $6.1M out the door. now they've flipped and started scooping the exact coin they were dumping. that's not a hold, that's a fresh change of mind.
one tracked wallet alone put in $716K, two more added $296K and $217K, spread across the week not one lump sum. and they're buying into red, price down while they kept adding. that biggest buyer's also been stacking PUMP with +$100K, so it's not just a random bag for them. tape right now still has buys slightly ahead too, 42 vs 58 sells but dollars leaning green.
40 wallets flipping their stance and buying weakness at the same time is rare. could mean something, could mean nothing yet. just what the wallets did. NFA 👀My boyfriend said this coin was not good, but it ended up rising tenfold
Of course, this is an exaggeration
But there is indeed something that happens when everyone feels it's not working
A quiet rally has surged
That is gold and silver
No, they're falling
I'm talking about BTC
Today, the entire market is filled with one voice
BTC can't break its previous high, it's time to run
BTC will drop to 55,000, it's time to stop loss
But to be honest
BTC fell from 65,750 to 63,446
The drop was only 3%.
Meanwhile
KOSPI dropped 10%, triggering circuit breakers
SK Hynix fell 11%
Gold fell 1%, silver dropped 2.41%
Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 1. 1%
Looking at global assets
Today, BTC is the most resilient to declines
Then guess what
It can't be done without BTC
It's because other things have fallen too hard
Why is BTC holding up so strongly?
Because the source of this round of selling is South Korea and the semiconductor sector
It hardly overlaps with the holder group of BTC
The leverage held by Koreans is in SK Hynix and Samsung
Not on BTC
So those who shout that the big pancake is about to collapse
Have you ever thought about a question?
If BTC is not strongly correlated with the Korean stock market,
Why did it fall along with it?
But there was a warning sign
Gold fell 1%
This indicates that some institutions are selling gold for cash
Whether this cash will come into BTC is the key
So my judgment is
There's no need to sell out BTC just because the Korean stock market crashes
A large pancake around 63,000
Looking at global assets
Still the most formidable#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
All the volatility this week is no coincidence but the result of multiple bearish and bullish factors resonating.
The Federal Reserve decision early Thursday morning will be the trigger for the market, which is gearing up for a new round of rally.
There are solid reasons: first, easing inflation concerns and expectations of a ceasefire between the US and Iran have pushed oil prices down; second, strong employment data gives the Fed confidence to cut rates; third, upcoming earnings reports from tech giants will verify economic vitality.
Looking at the data: initial jobless claims last week were only 187,000, well below expectations; Bitcoin has reclaimed the $65,000 mark, and the fear and greed index has risen to 30, a monthly high.
More importantly, earnings reports from XMSFT, Meta, and Amazon will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, and their capital expenditure guidance will directly determine capital flows.
My trading approach: remain cautiously optimistic before 2 AM Thursday, avoiding blind leverage bets on direction.
Focus on whether BTC can firmly hold the $65,000 support level; if the decision is dovish and earnings are positive, I will consider adding positions accordingly; otherwise, implement risk control and wait for a pullback opportunity. Combining the previous earnings reports of Tesla and Google, it can be seen that the market's focus is on whether a company's free cash flow is positive, and whether there is significant investment in the AI field, which currently has no barriers or moats. Because the market is now worried about overheated AI investment, the upcoming AI reshuffle may cause these investments to become bad debts. Therefore, investors are very cautious about these aspects. Known public information shows that AI investment is huge in these three companies. Companies like Oracle have seen stock declines due to excessive investment in cloud services. If these three companies' earnings reports show significant AI investment or impact cash flow, the market will definitely reprice their stock prices.
Why has the market suddenly become cautious about AI? From the software side, when Claude Fable 5 was just launched, the U.S. government banned Chinese users citing national security reasons. But soon after, Chinese large models caught up, showing investors that the moat for large models is very narrow; catching up is just a matter of time, and there is no real technical barrier. From the hardware side, the listing of Changxin Technology has made memory hardware manufacturers feel a potential crisis. Although there is no effective competition yet in the HBM field, based on historical experience, technological breakthroughs are only a matter of time. Additionally, China's small-batch trial production of lithography machines can just meet Changxin's demand for trench capacitors in memory, further intensifying China's efforts to catch up in hardware.
So ultimately, the current U.S. stock market is driven by insecurity caused by the threat theory of China. If China makes rapid technological breakthroughs, the high premium in the global AI market will no longer exist, and the current market pricing based on high premiums must be re-evaluated.
The attached chart shows the free cash flow of the three companies from the last quarter
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ The market has been quite interesting lately. AI is off, Meme is tired, and funds are running wild like headless flies. Just as the market was testing patience during a sideways consolidation, a long-dormant name began to reappear on the market—ORDI. If you're a veteran player in the inscription track, you're definitely familiar with ORDI. It's not a new concept, but rather the pioneer of the BRC-20 inscription track, the first benchmark in Bitcoin's native ecosystem to take the plunge. When the inscription craze swept across the internet, ORDI was the one to carry the flag. Later, when the hype faded, it quieted down. But recently, the market has started to become restless. BIP-110: A Proposal That Opened Up Bitcoin Behind this round of ORDI surge is a key catalyst: the BIP-110 soft fork is about to open miner voting. What does that mean? You can think of Bitcoin as an old-fashioned feature phone—stable, but always criticized for its limited functionality. In other words, BIP-110 equips this old phone with a more flexible operating system, giving Bitcoin scripts stronger programmability. For sectors like inscriptions and Bitcoin Layer2, this is like a blessing after a long drought—once the technology upgrade is implemented, the imaginative possibilities of the Bitcoin ecosystem will be reopened. The miner vote itself is quite interesting. Miners are not fools; the hash power in their hands is votes, and upgrading the ecosystem means more on-chain activity and higher fee income, which is a direct business benefit for them. So the market is betting that the probability of this vote passing is not low🔥#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
🔥At 2 AM Thursday, the Fed is about to drop a “bomb”!
Family, let’s be clear about the time—it’s the day after tomorrow (July 30) at 2 AM Thursday, not tonight or tomorrow night, don’t stay up late on the wrong day 😂
This rate decision is called “the hardest to predict in recent years” by many institutions.
How hard? Let’s look at the data:
CME’s “FedWatch” shows a 63.7% chance of keeping rates unchanged and a 36.3% chance of a 25 basis point hike. A 36% chance of a hike means the market doesn’t see “no change” as a sure thing. Just a few weeks ago—when June CPI posted the largest monthly drop since April 2020—the market’s bet on a July hike was only about 10%. In just a few weeks, oil prices broke $100, tariff risks heated up, and the AI investment boom kept driving demand. These three shocks completely reversed the inflation narrative.
Citigroup’s trading team bluntly said this is the moment with the biggest market divergence since September 2024. Some economists even describe this meeting as “almost a 50-50 split.”
And the “mastermind” behind all this is the Fed Chair Kevin Walsh, who just took office in May.
Right after taking office, he completely abandoned former Chair Powell’s “forward guidance” approach, clearly stating that every policy meeting is a “real-time” change, and investors shouldn’t expect to extract hints from the Fed in advance. An analyst summed it up: “No forward guidance means we’ll frequently see probability distributions of 20%, 30%, 40%.” The old playbook was officials leak → market digests → expectations converge. Now? All signals are deliberately blurred until the decision is announced.
Even more exciting, there’s infighting inside the Fed. On the hawkish side, Dallas Fed President Logan and Cleveland Fed President Harnak have publicly called for a rate hike, and both have voting rights for this meeting. The dovish side believes inflation may have peaked and advocates waiting. Goldman Sachs expects at least one member to dissent in favor of a rate hike.
There’s another variable we can’t ignore—Trump. On the eve of the meeting, he praised Walsh as “great” while publicly calling for a rate cut. Those who understand know what this means.
So what does this have to do with us crypto traders?
A lot.
The logic is simple: rate hikes = higher financing costs = capital retreating from risk assets. Crypto, as a top-tier risk asset, is always the first to be affected.
So what will happen at 2 AM the day after tomorrow? Three scenarios:
Scenario 1: No rate hike, but a hawkish statement. This is the baseline judgment of most institutions. Rates unchanged, but wording emphasizes inflation risks, hinting at possible action in September. This result might give the market a short breather, but the “wolf is coming” pressure will hang over.
Scenario 2: Direct 25 basis point hike. Castle Securities bets on this, believing it will boost Walsh’s anti-inflation credibility. If this happens, risk assets will likely take another short-term hit.
Scenario 3: No hike, dovish statement. Least likely, but if it happens, it’s the biggest short-term positive—though don’t get too excited, the market’s expectation for a September hike is already as high as 55.7%.
My view:
If you’re heavily positioned, it’s best not to bet all in on direction at 2 AM the day after tomorrow. This kind of “guessing game” meeting can lead to big losses if wrong. If you want to trade, wait for the decision, Walsh’s press conference, and clear market direction. If you’re out of the market, grab a small stool and watch the show.
One last question: do you think the Fed will hike or not? Place your bets in the comments and see who’s the prophet.👇
(The above is purely personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR.)🚨 If BEAT really ended, it wouldn't be what it is now.
$BEAT
Today.
I looked at the BEAT market again.
To be honest.
I didn't see a "reset to zero."
Instead, I witnessed a ......
A tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
⸻
Why do so many people start to feel afraid?
Because prices have fallen.
His emotions collapsed.
The comment section was also filled with shouts:
"Beat over."
But have you noticed?
Before the real big market moves.
The market is the least lacking.
That's the kind of sound it is.
⸻
I have been observing a detail.
Although BEAT has recently made adjustments,
But every time it drops to a low point,
Funds will proactively take on the role.
What does this mean?
This means there are still people buying below.
The coins that are truly about to be reset to zero.
Usually, that's not the case.
Instead, it was a gloomy stumble all the way.
No one answered.
No one talked to her.
Trading volume is getting smaller and smaller.
⸻
However.
I also won't be blindly optimistic.
If three signals appear afterward.
We must be more vigilant.
❌ Breaking below key support.
❌ The rebound is getting weaker.
❌ Trading volume continues to expand but cannot recover the decline.
If all three of these signals appear simultaneously.
This indicates that short-term initiative is still in the hands of the bears.
⸻
But if.
BEAT was able to hold the current area.
And it has regained its volume and reached the previous resistance level.
So this round of adjustments.
It was more like a shakeout.
Not the end of the market.
⸻
So.
I won't be bearish on a single bearish candlestick right now.
Nor will they be bullish just because of a single bullish candle.
What really made me decide the direction.
There are only two words:
Funding.
The funds are coming back.
The trend is coming back.
Funds are leaving.
No matter how good the story is, it's hard to support the price.Of course, it wasn't actually doubled
It's the kind of plot you only find in jokes
But today, something is indeed rising
US stocks are falling, BTC is falling, and gold is falling
Yet, there is one direction quietly gaining strength
Guess what it is
Stablecoins?
No, it is incorrect
It's Korean retail investors who have gone to buy US stocks
The South Korean stock market has been sluggish to this extent
KOSPI fell 10%, triggering circuit breakers
SK Hynix fell 11% in one day
Even leveraged ETFs fell more than 20% in a single day
The mindset of Korean retail investors collapsed
Then guess what
They didn't try to bottom-fish BTC
Nor did he buy gold
Instead, they flooded into the US stock market
This month, South Korean retail investors net bought over 5 trillion won in US stocks
That's nearly 4 billion US dollars
What does this number mean?
Monthly inflows are higher than those of many countries' ETFs
Why not encrypt?
Because Koreans' trust in crypto has not fully recovered after FTX and LUNA
They would rather buy US stocks than touch cryptocurrencies
At least in the short term
But there's a deeper logic behind this
Funds do not disappear into thin air
No matter where the money flowing out of the Korean stock market goes,
will be repriced first during systemic risk events
For the crypto market
In the short term, it has absorbed liquidity
In the medium term, this signals a broad contraction in risk appetite in the Asia-Pacific region
This is actually a good thing for global assets like BTC and ETH
So my judgment is
South Korean retail investors buying US stocks is just the first wave
When the US stock market also started to become unstable
BTC will become a true safe-haven alternative
Don't rush, capital rotation takes time
Coincidentally, there are still a few hot topics today美联储7月决议：不赌结果，看措辞
周四凌晨2点，美联储公布利率决议。
降不降？
市场基本已经定价：
大概率按兵不动。
真正决定行情的，不是利率数字。
而是声明里那几个词怎么改。
三个地方最重要：
1. 通胀怎么说
如果还是：通胀仍然偏高→ 市场理解偏鹰，降息预期继续等待。
如果改成：通胀正在取得进一步进展→ 偏鸽，市场会提前交易9月降息。
2. 就业怎么说
如果继续：劳动力市场保持强劲→ 中性。
如果变成：劳动力市场正在趋于平衡→ 市场会理解为Fed开始关注就业风险。
3. 双重目标风险
现在最关键的是：Fed到底更担心什么？通胀？还是就业？
如果强调通胀风险：→ 鹰。
如果强调就业压力：→ 鸽。
我个人倾向：
声明可能会出现一点偏鸽调整。
但鲍威尔讲话大概率不会直接给9月降息确认。
更可能是：文字留空间，口头保持谨慎。
$BTC 怎么看？
如果偏鸽：美元和美债收益率压力下降。风险资产可能迎来反弹。
BTC关注：66-67K区域。
如果中性：市场继续等数据。
BTC大概率：震荡消化
。
如果意外偏鹰：风险资产先承压。
BTC重点看：63K附近支撑。
不要提前站队。
2点声明出来，看第一波资金投票。
2点30鲍威尔讲话，再看市场有没有改方向。
美联储会议最怕的不是结果。
而是：
市场提前押错方向。#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #DailyOrbit The most viral event today is the chain crash in the storage sector. Our domestic storage leader Changxin just went public on the A-share market, soaring 465% in one day and breaking the A-share record in trading volume, which stunned the global storage giants. Last night, US storage stocks fell first, and today the Korean market simply couldn't hold on—leading Korean storage companies like Samsung and SK Hynix all plunged, and Korean stocks broke out of circuit breakers. Simply put, the market suddenly realized: the days when Korea's two giants could just make DRAM money are over, but now our domestic storage industry has taken over. Their valuation premiums are gone, and funds are rushing to dump and reprice, resulting in the current situation. #韩股重挫8%, Changxin tops the A-share market on its first day. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: OKX's masterclass premieres tonight, guiding you through the financial reports of the four major tech giants The Nasdaq's decline this time was not just about the point level, but also the market's patience with AI.
U.S. stocks have risen steadily from the bottom in 2023, mainly driven by the AI revolution, capital spending by tech giants, and valuation expansion driven by expectations of interest rate cuts.
When prices rise, the market is willing to pay for imagination.
Once it reaches a high point, profits must speak for itself.
📉 The Nasdaq 100 Index reached a high of 30,762 points in June, closed at 28,028 points on July 27, and dropped to an intraday low of 27,787 points. The index fluctuated at high levels, and AI, chip, and memory stocks, which had previously seen the biggest gains, also became the places where capital was cashing out the most.
For the short term, first look at 27,000 points.
If it holds here, the Nasdaq still has a chance to recover and retest the 28,500–29,000 range; If 27,000 is effectively breached, the next level of support may be between 25,500 and 26,000 points.
Now the market is starting to ask a practical question:
When will the massive capital expenditures invested by Microsoft, Google, and Amazon in AI truly translate into revenue and profit?
Nvidia does make money selling shovels, but whether those who buy them can earn back will determine how long this round of AI valuation can last.
Coupled with repeated inflation, persistently high interest rates, and even the risk of further rate hikes, high-valuation tech stocks will naturally face greater pressure.
The AI rally is not over; the market is shifting from "listening to stories" to "auditing accounts."
The story can still be told; profits must follow.The most unusual thing happened. NAND and DRAM remain in short supply, storage prices keep rising, and profits from several giants are at historic highs. But the stock price crashed first. SanDisk fell from a high of $2,354.39 to $1,278.23, with a maximum drawdown of about 45.7%. On just the two trading days of July 24 and July 27: ✔ SanDisk fell 20.62% cumulatively, ✔ Hynix ADR dropped 15.62%, Micron ✔ fell 9.09%. If the industry's prosperity hadn't reversed and storage prices were still rising, why did the stock price drop by nearly half prematurely? The answer is not "the storage cycle has ended." Instead, the market began to doubt how much longer the shortage, high prices, and high profits of 2026 could last. Stock trading has never been about how much money you make today, but whether you can keep making that much next year. --- 1. This is not a broad drop in U.S. stocks, but rather a concentrated sell-off in the storage sector. On July 27, the S&P 500 rose 0.02%, the Dow Jones rose 0.51%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.18%. However, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 2.2%, SanDisk dropped 11.02%, SK Hynix's ADR dropped 7.47%, and Micron declined 2.25%. The market barely moved, but storage and AI hardware were subjected to concentrated sell-offs. This shows that funds are not fleeing U.S. stocks indiscriminately, but are actively reducing their positions in semiconductors, especially in the storage sector. [Reuters Market Data] (https://www.reuters#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
This is definitely the most divided interest rate decision in nearly two years. A month ago, everyone was still counting on how many rate cuts would happen this year, but now the probability of a rate hike in July has surged to over 30%, and the September hike is almost fully priced in. The expectation reversal is unbelievably fast.
I believe the July meeting will most likely hold rates steady, but the post-meeting statement will be more hawkish than most expect. The real rate hike window is in September; this time is just a preemptive warning. Rate cuts are basically off the table this year, and the high interest rate environment will last far longer than the market expects. Growth assets like tech stocks and crypto will continue to face pressure in the short term, so don’t stubbornly hold on to the easing logic from the beginning of the year.
Looking at the data: CME’s latest pricing shows a 63.5% probability of holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% in July, and a 36.5% chance of a 25bp hike — this is the biggest divergence in nearly two years, meaning one in three people is betting on a direct move this time. More importantly, the probability of at least one hike in September has surged to 79.6%, and some traders are even pricing in a cumulative 50bp hike by year-end, pushing rates to 4.0%-4.25%.
Brent crude has surged past $100, ramping up inflation rebound risks; initial jobless claims hit a new low for April, showing labor market resilience far beyond expectations. These two key Fed indicators are strengthening simultaneously, leaving no reason for rate cuts and instead providing strong backing for hikes. Additionally, the new Fed chair, Waller, has scrapped forward guidance, refusing to tip off the market in advance. Castle Securities is betting on a surprise rate hike this time to rebuild anti-inflation credibility.
Holding steady in July is the baseline scenario, but hawkish statements are inevitable, and the September rate hike window is basically open. Therefore, controlling position sizes and keeping enough cash to handle volatility is the safest approach. #Korean stocks plunge 8%, Changxin tops A-shares on debut
$SKHYNIX
On one side, the domestic storage leader's listing makes history; on the other, the Korean stock market suffers a brutal sell-off. Within the same time window, the global storage sector experiences a starkly divided hot and cold scenario.
Changxin Technology debuted on the STAR Market, breaking multiple A-share records on its first day. It surged sharply at the open, with its market capitalization instantly topping the A-share market cap rankings. Daily turnover exceeded 100 billion, with capital flooding into the domestic DRAM leader, reflecting the market's very high valuation expectations for the domestic storage substitution narrative. The massive fundraising will be invested in capacity expansion, DDR5 iteration, and HBM high-end storage R&D, marking the global DRAM market's shift from a past three-player monopoly to a new four-giant competitive landscape.
However, the Asia-Pacific market across the ocean tells a different story. The Korean KOSPI index plunged over 8% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker. SK Hynix dropped more than 10%, and Samsung Electronics fell over 8%. As core AI storage leaders, these two heavyweight stocks dragged down the entire Korean market. Many intuitively attribute the Korean stock crash simply to the competitive pressure from Changxin's listing, but it is actually the result of multiple negative factors converging.
On one hand, the US semiconductor sector collectively plunged overnight, with the market re-evaluating the risks of AI capital expenditure. Rumors about Nvidia-related financing sparked concerns about potential flaws in the AI industry's capital investment cycle, loosening the optimistic outlook for AI storage demand and triggering a concentrated profit-taking wave. On the other hand, the Korean stock market itself is flooded with leveraged funds and a high proportion of retail margin trading, which can lead to panic selling once sentiment reverses. Changxin's debut amplified market anxiety about long-term supply changes, acting as an emotional catalyst rather than the sole cause of the decline.
Storage is inherently a highly cyclical industry. The AI computing power boom over the past two years drove up HBM and DRAM prices, pushing Samsung and SK Hynix stock prices to very high levels. When institutions anticipate the price hike cycle nearing its end, capital tends to take profits early. Changxin's rise changes the long-term competitive landscape over several years, with limited short-term earnings impact, but the capital market is already pricing in future competitive pressures.
This situation will also indirectly affect the crypto market. AI computing power and HBM storage are the most critical underlying hardware foundations for the AI+Crypto narrative. The global semiconductor sector's sharp collective volatility indicates market wavering on AI capital expenditure expectations. If AI industry capex forecasts are downgraded, crypto narratives related to computing power will come under pressure. Coupled with the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision this week and macro liquidity concerns looming, multiple variables combined will further amplify market volatility.
We must distinguish between short-term emotional speculation and long-term industry realities. Changxin's high-profile IPO does not mean overseas storage giants will immediately collapse; Korean companies still maintain strong technical barriers in the HBM high-end segment. The Korean stock plunge does not signify the end of the AI storage cycle, but rather a rational correction of previously overheated expectations.
For traders, the global storage sector now shows huge divergence. Whether in stocks or crypto sectors related to AI computing power, blind chasing of highs is unwise. The most dangerous moment in a cyclical industry is when market sentiment swings to extremes. Position control and rational assessment of industry news-driven market disturbances are essential.Yesterday wasn't just another listing. CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) made history on China's A-share market. 📈 IPO price: ¥8.66 🚀 Opened near ¥49.5 (+471%) 🔥 Hit ¥55.03 at the high (+535%) 💰 Closed around ¥49, valuing the company at ¥3.28 trillion. It became the largest company in China's stock market overnight. But the real story wasn't the rally. It was the domino effect. 📉 U.S. memory stocks sold off. SanDisk plunged. Micron came under pressure. Apple reclaimed the top market-cap s$SKHYNIX 当前处于财报利好兑现与估值修复共振的资金调仓阶段。海力士ADR溢价引发跨市场套利，联动美股纳指与半导体板块同步回调。若美股大盘与相关芯片股继续弱势，后续需观察长下影线与放量企稳形态。财报指引大幅超预期且算力需求强劲释放将直接呈现放量平仓特征。
#美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落 #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决：通过利好还是夭折？ #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过The Federal Reserve will hold the FOMC meeting on July 28–29.
Converted to Beijing time, the interest rate statement is expected to be released at 2:00 AM on July 30, with the press conference starting at 2:30 AM.
Just 18 and a half hours later, at 8:30 PM Beijing time on July 30, the US will also release the preliminary Q2 GDP and June personal income and spending data, which include the market's key focus, the PCE inflation indicator.
This means the market will consecutively reprice interest rates, economic growth, and inflation within one day.
A dense event schedule only indicates a higher probability of volatility and does not pre-determine price direction. The biggest risk now is not making a wrong directional call once, but using excessive leverage before the results are announced, causing positions to be liquidated by volatility before the view is even validated. I am Cige, holding a 65014.2 short position. This chart lists all the core variables for this week. The Federal Reserve rate decision, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon earnings reports, and FTX compensation—all three events are squeezed into the same week, and the short position is perfectly timed just before all these variables erupt.
Three core variables this week:
First, the Federal Reserve decision. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike surged from 13% a week ago to 38%, with Castle Securities even predicting a possible surprise hike. Oil prices fell back to $81.6, easing inflation concerns, but initial jobless claims at 187,000 hit a multi-year low, showing labor market resilience beyond expectations. The combination of employment and inflation is once again tilting toward tightening.
Second, tech giant earnings. Microsoft after market close on Wednesday, Meta the same day, and Amazon closing on Thursday. Google and Tesla already set the tone last week with after-hours crashes—Google’s capital expenditure exceeded expectations and dropped over 4% after hours, Tesla fell nearly 20% in one week. If these three also report decent revenue but burn cash more aggressively, tech stocks will face secondary pressure, and BTC may continue testing 62000.
Third, FTX compensation. $900 million started on July 31, with nearly $10 billion repaid since bankruptcy. But the timing is at month-end, so short-term support is limited.
How I manage the 65014.2 short position:
First target 64000 reached, closed 30%. Second target 63000 reached, closed another 30%. Third target 62000, if broken, look for 61000 to 60000. Hold the remaining 40%.
Stop loss moved down from 66500 to 64800. If 64000 is decisively broken, the bearish trend is confirmed. For every 500-point drop in price, move the stop loss down 300 points. If price rebounds to the 64000-64500 range without a volume breakout, add to the short position, with the overall stop loss unified at 64800.
Three variables determine the final take-profit point for the short position:
If the Fed surprises with a hike or is extremely hawkish, BTC will directly test 61000, and all shorts will take profit below 62000. If the Fed holds steady but leans hawkish, BTC will oscillate between 62000 and 63500, and most shorts will close near 62000. If the Fed leans dovish combined with better-than-expected earnings, BTC will quickly rebound above 64500, and all shorts will exit near 64000 and reverse.
The 65014.2 short position profits from the concentrated release of macro uncertainty and the cascade of long liquidations. Set stop losses properly, take profits in batches, and hold on.
Cige has finished speaking. Think it over carefully. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 $ETH $BTC $AEON A quietly important win for prediction markets: a federal judge paused Minnesota's first-in-the-nation ban days before it took effect, ruling it likely conflicts with the Commodity Exchange Act, with the CFTC itself lined up alongside Kalshi and Polymarket. State-level bans just hit a federal wall.
The precedent is the prize. If prediction markets are regulated as federal commodities, a patchwork of fifty state rules can't quietly strangle them, exactly the legal clarity the sector needs to scale. Pair it with the insider-trading cases and a picture forms: these markets are being treated as real, regulated financial venues, with both the scrutiny and the protection that implies. Adolescence with adult supervision. This is how a category earns permanence. Watching the appeals.
DYOR.
#PredMarketsBanPaused #OKXOrbitThe linkage between U.S. stocks and BTC is not simply following each other up or down, but involves a nested structure of three layers of logic. In practice, pay special attention to micro-strategy ETFs, which basically move in sync with BTC!
The first layer is the prediction window brought about by the time mismatch. The U.S. stock trading hours occur during BTC's overnight to early morning period. The post-market movement of U.S. stocks directly determines the emotional tone of BTC's opening the next day. For example, if the Nasdaq falls by 1.5% and the semiconductor index drops by 4%, South Korean stocks and BTC are likely to face pressure simultaneously the next day. This is not conjecture, but actual fund transmission. On July 20th, South Korean stocks fell back by 4% because they were closed on Friday when U.S. semiconductor stocks plummeted, and then compensated for the loss in one go the next day.
In practice, I draw a line after the U.S. stock market closes. If the Nasdaq falls by more than 1%, BTC is likely to open lower in Asia, and wait for stabilization before taking action. If there is a V-shaped reversal in technology stocks before the U.S. stock market closes, then a high opening for BTC the next day is almost certain, and orders can be placed in advance.
The second layer is that fund transmission is not linear, but follows a traceable pattern. The linkage between U.S. stocks and BTC mainly occurs through two channels. Channel one is macro pricing. When U.S. stocks fall, risk appetite decreases, and liquidity is withdrawn from BTC. Channel two is institutional allocation. Funds in technology stocks and crypto assets within the U.S. stock market need to cover margin calls when U.S. stocks fall, so they sell BTC to realize gains.
Interestingly, on July 17th, storage stocks collapsed collectively, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling by 4.3% in a single day, while BTC didn't follow suit much. This indicates that the linkage is loosening, and the crypto market is transitioning from being under the shadow of technology stocks to becominMany people in the industry are still hesitating to short ETH, and a veteran mining tycoon has quietly switched to shorting targets—a signal that deserves everyone's attention.
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lebit Mining Pool, recently made it clear that he will no longer short ETH in this round of trading, shifting his focus to shorting BTC next.
Many retail investors only see the direction of bulls and bears, overlooking the ingenuity of their entire scheme design. He uses WBETH as margin for his layout, which is fundamentally different from ordinary people directly opening contract leverage. This approach can avoid the impact of forced liquidations caused by extreme market conditions, continuously earn pledge interest, and complete the layout with only a small amount of capital. Its risk control approach is far more thorough than most traders'.
This adjustment was not driven by subjective speculation about price movements; the core reason lies in the clear divergence in the market structure between the two major currencies.
Currently, BTC has effectively broken below the ascending channel, disrupting the bullish structure; ETH is relatively resilient and remains within the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
He cited historical patterns from the 2022 bear market as a reference: in the previous bear market, BTC and ETH did not bottom out in sync. ETH first bottomed out in June, while BTC did not emerge from the bottom until November. Based on this, ETH is very likely to have bottomed out as early as early June in this market cycle.
This happens to be a common misconception among most traders: people instinctively believe that BTC and ETH move in sync and that buying and selling always operate in sync. However, history has repeatedly proven that the strength of the two major mainstream coins continuously alternates, and there are frequent time lags at the bottom.
Once the market structure changes, clinging to old ways of thinking will only lead to repeated pitfalls. Now that the BTC channel has broken down, downside risk has further amplified, and we cannot continue trading using previous strength assessments.
Do you think historical patterns will repeat itself? Has ETH already bottomed out ahead of schedule this time?