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#Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Coming Soon
I am a beauty, and the result is out.
The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, holding steady for the fifth consecutive meeting. However, the voting ratio changed from 12-0 last time to 9-3 this time, with members Harker, Kashkari, and Logan voting against, supporting a rate hike.
The voting result is the real signal.
No surprise in keeping rates unchanged; all 104 economists bet on no change. But the three dissenting votes indicate that internal Fed divisions are much greater than the market perceives. Logan had previously publicly called for a rate hike and this time formally expressed it through his vote. Before the decision, the OIS-implied probability of a July rate hike surged from 12% a week ago to 38%, and the expectation for a September hike rose to 82%. The three dissenting votes are telling the market that the rate hike option has not been shelved.
Short-term impact on BTC
The decision met expectations, and BTC did not experience sharp fluctuations, continuing to oscillate around $64,000. But the three dissenting votes and the possibly hawkish tone in the statement mean the market needs to reprice the risk of a September hike. A high interest rate environment suppresses risk asset valuations, and BTC, as a high Beta asset, faces short-term pressure. K33 Research's head of research pointed out that Nasdaq positioning is crowded, BTC is consolidating near multi-year lows, and their correlation is weakening, so this FOMC may have limited impact on BTC. In the past 9 FOMCs, BTC fell on average about 10% after 8 of them.
Mid-term narrative unchanged
The more hawkish the Fed, the faster fiat currency credit erodes, making BTC's non-sovereign narrative even stronger. Since July, BTC has risen about 6%, while the semiconductor sector has dropped nearly 20%. Any dovish signals could push Bitcoin to continue outperforming. Oil prices falling back to $81.6 eased some inflation concerns, but geopolitical volatility and trade tariffs remain upside risks.
Hold your positions; don’t heavily bet on direction before the press conference. Wait for Waller to finish speaking before making moves.
Yao Yaoyao has finished speaking. Ponder it carefully. #Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Coming Soon $BTC $ETH $SNDK The most convincing thing in financial markets is a strong bullish candlestick.
Changxin Technology surged another 12.66%, with a price of 52.95 yuan and a market value of 3.5 trillion yuan, continuing to write the legend of China's storage industry.
The short-term outlook remains bullish. Anyone who's played crypto knows that analyzing the industry chain or business at the start doesn't mean much; at the open, you can look at circulation, VC endorsements, and narratives!
Let's analyze the above situation:
1. Initial circulation
Total share capital 6.73%.
2. VC endorsement
Anhui Provincial Investment and Hefei State-owned Assets; Alibaba Group, Tencent Group, GigaDevice (founding company), Xiaomi; leading brokerages such as CICC, CITIC, and China Merchants; China Life Investment, PICC Capital, Sunshine Life, and other insurance funds.
3. Beautiful storytelling
The number one DRAM manufacturer in China and the fourth largest globally.
LPDDR series products are the main revenue driver, providing a large number of products for domestic mobile phones and laptops; DDR series products are also closely following industry leaders, contributing significant revenue growth in recent years.
Next, let's look at the unlocking dates of major restricted stocks:
January 27, 2027: Offline issuance restricted portion (approximately 1.521 billion shares).
July 27, 2027: Large number of shares restricted by original shareholders + partial strategic placement (totaling about 22.075 billion shares, involving GigaDevice, CMB affiliates, Tencent, Alibaba, Harmony Health, etc.).
Mid-2028 (around June): some shares (such as about 2.319 billion shares related to Alibaba Cloud Computing, etc.).
July 27, 2029: Largest unlocking (approximately 36.295 billion shares), mainly shareholders of core state-owned and employee platforms such as Qinghui Jidian, Changxin Integration, Big Fund Phase II, Hefei Jixin, and Anhui Provincial Investment.
In short, Changxin Technology's circulating supply is currently very low, and all domestic funds are flowing into the only storage narrative channel, so at least in the short term, there won't be a sharp drop!
What price do you think Changxin will push up in the short term?Meta Q2 Final Checklist: Depreciation, Compensation, and Ad Volume-Price Should Not Be Mixed as AI Costs
Meta's official IR has confirmed that the Q2 2026 results will be released after the U.S. market closes on July 29, with a call scheduled at 1:30 PM Pacific Time; currently, the official page only has the release notice and Q1 documents. When discussing AI costs before the earnings report, it is easiest to mistakenly combine capital expenditures, depreciation, stock compensation, and Reality Labs losses into a single expense. These items differ in nature and timing and must be checked separately.
Data center equipment first forms an asset, which is then expensed over time through depreciation after being put into use; cash payments may also be out of sync with equipment delivery. Q1 capital expenditures including finance lease principal were $19.84 billion, and the company at that time raised its full-year 2026 outlook to $125 billion to $145 billion. The former is the disclosed quarterly figure, the latter is management's future range as of Q1. For Q2 results, one must read actual capital expenditures, depreciation, finance leases, and free cash flow; dividing the full-year range by four to represent the quarter is inaccurate.
Stock compensation is another separate line. It is an expense in the current period's profit and loss but does not equal an equivalent cash outflow; in the long term, it may affect shareholders through dilution and repurchase demand. After the official report, stock compensation, diluted weighted average shares, and actual repurchases must be presented side by side to judge EPS changes. Simply removing stock compensation from expenses underestimates talent costs; treating it as quarterly cash capital expenditure results in double counting.
Reality Labs losses also cannot represent the entire company's AI infrastructure accounts. The Family of Apps' recommendations, ad ranking, generative AI, and security systems also use models and computing power, and Meta does not allocate each server by product. Q1 Family of Apps operating profit was $26.9 billion, Reality Labs operating loss was $4.028 billion; for Q2, the company segment report should be used first, leaving infrastructure that cannot be split by product at the company-wide level without attribution.
Expense guidance must also retain version timing. In Q1, the company maintained its full-year 2026 total expense expectation at $162 billion to $169 billion and indicated infrastructure costs would drive growth; this was management's range at that time. If Q2 updates the range, the old version does not become incorrect but must be marked with release date and adjustment magnitude; only leaving the latest upper limit or using the difference between two ranges to pretend Q2 expenses have occurred is not acceptable.
On the revenue side, it returns to ad volume and price. Q1 ad impressions grew 19%, average ad price grew 12%, but both are affected by region, placement, and exchange rate combinations and cannot be simply added to estimate ad revenue. The official Q2 should focus on ad revenue, then explain with impressions, price, Family daily active people, and exchange rates. Only when core revenue, segment profit, and cash recovery jointly support investment is it appropriate to discuss return improvement. Official Q2 results have not yet appeared, so this article does not predict results nor present management's outlook as realized.Based on the information released so far, it is relatively neutral and slightly more in the crypto world, but not strong enough to immediately trigger a new main rally. It can be viewed from several perspectives. First, the fact that interest rates remain unchanged indicates that the Federal Reserve is still not in a hurry to ease monetary policy. The market had already priced in this in advance, so at the moment of announcement, Biting and Ethereum did not show a particularly large unilateral rally but instead experienced rapid fluctuations. What truly influenced the subsequent trend was the Chairman's speech. If the speech continues to emphasize: inflation still needs to be observed; Employment remains steady; There is no rush to cut interest rates; This makes it easier for the US dollar index to strengthen, US Treasury yields to remain high, and risk assets to be under pressure. But if the speech releases: inflation is improving; Conditions for rate cuts are gradually maturing; There is room for discussion in September; As a result, the market will trade interest rate cut expectations early, and Bitcoin (BTC), Ether, and US tech stocks are all likely to see capital flow back. What does this mean for the crypto world? Currently, the biggest logic in the crypto world is no longer "raise rates or not." Rather: when will the real rate-cutting cycle begin? Because the funds are traded in advance with expectations. As long as the market believes rate cuts will start in September, funds may start positioning in August ahead of schedule. If expectations for a rate cut in September decline again, the short-term market may continue to fluctuate. From the market perspective, Bitcoin is still trading near key support levels. Short-term funds are clearly waiting for the Fed's speech, not choosing to heavily invest in the direction. It can be observed: the volume increase in the rally is limited; There was no obvious panic during the decline. This indicates that the market is more about waiting for news**The Federal Reserve Holds Steady, But BTC Has Not Yet Broken Off**
Early this morning, the Federal Reserve's FOMC results were announced: the federal funds rate target range remains unchanged at **3.50%-3.75%**. On the surface, it appears to be a pause in rate hikes, but this vote is **9:3**, with three members opposing and leaning toward a direct rate hike of **25bp**.
Therefore, this meeting cannot be simply interpreted as positive news. My understanding is: **Interest rates not moving means short-term easing, but internal hawkish divisions are obvious, so the market should not trade in "easing expectations" too early. **
The Fed's statement also mentioned that economic activity is still expanding steadily, the job market has changed little, but inflation remains above the 2% target, and some energy and other supply shocks continue to push prices higher. This means the logic for rate cuts is still unstable, and liquidity is not a strong stimulus for BTC, but rather a 'pressure ease.'
Looking at OKX market data, BTC is currently around **$64,050**, with a 24-hour high of about **64,750** and a low of about **63,550**. After the news, BTC surged but failed to hold steady. The latest 1-hour high hit **64,686** before pulling back, indicating selling pressure remains above.
From a technical perspective:
- 1H EMA20: approximately **64,149**
- 1H EMA50: approximately **64,135**
- 4H EMA20: approximately **64,233**
- 4H EMA50: approximately **64,493**
- 1H RSI: approximately **48.7**
- 4H RSI: approximately **46.3**
That said, BTC still hasn't regained the 1H/4H moving average strength zone, and the RSI hasn't entered a clear bullish zone. My trading system's current market status is still **ranging / Volatility**, ADX is about **12**, trend strength is weak, and the system recommends pausing or reducing new positions with trend strategies.
Next, I will focus on three locations:
Pressure above:
**64,700-65,000**, here is the post-news rally high zone and short-term moving average resistance; If the market breaks above the level of increased volume, it will indicate that the market is starting to re-trade risk appetite.
Strong pressure:
**Around 65,700**, if BTC can break through here again, the structure will have a chance to turn from volatility to strength.
Support below:
**63,500-63,600**, this is near the 24-hour low; If it breaks below it, it would mean the rebound following the Fed news has basically failed, and in the short term, it may return to the **62,700** level to find support.
My conclusion:
**This time, the Fed is not a major positive development, but rather that "negative news has not continued to expand." BTC has seen a short-term rebound, but it has not yet started a trend. **
In terms of trading, I will remain conservative: not chasing long around 64,000, nor shorting above support. A better signal is BTC surging above **65,000** with high volume and recovering the EMA50 within 4 hours; Otherwise, it will still be treated as a fluctuation.
Current judgment of the personal trading system: Volatility market, trend strategy continues to wait for confirmation signals. This is solely a personal market review and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC Has gold truly bottomed out? Don't be fooled by "oversold" to buy the dip #FedSoonRateDecision$BTC
The vast majority of financial bloggers have only two conclusions: either loudly claim the bottom has appeared and blindly buy the dip; Or simply bearish and keep looking for new lows.
Few have revealed the core truth: gold currently only has long-term support and lacks catalysts for trend reversals. Right now, it is in a consolidating bottoming range, not a certain cyclical bottom.
Many people confuse the two concepts: "can't fall" ≠ "bottom confirmation."
We break down the market from four layers: capital, macro, supply and demand, and market to avoid the traps most traders fall into.
1. First, identify the core culprit behind this round of decline (unresolved, hard to predict a reversal)
Gold's biggest pricing anchor: U.S. Treasury real interest rates.
Gold is interest-free. When real interest rates keep rising, holding US Treasuries can provide stable returns, and funds continue to abandon gold.
This round of gold prices has fallen from the historical high of 5500+ all the way down, and the root causes:
Inflation resilience has exceeded expectations, with the market continuously postponing rate cut expectations and even repricing potential rate hikes; Coupled with high oil prices and repeated energy inflation disturbances, the Federal Reserve was forced to maintain a tight monetary policy.
Here lies a rare paradox rarely discussed online:
Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, which is theoretically favorable for gold as a safe haven. However, tensions in the Middle East have pushed crude oil prices higher, and the market fears a rebound in inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates.
Risk aversion logic fails, interest rate logic dominates the market.
The rebound caused by the conflict was all pulse-like rally, making it difficult to break out of a sustained bullish trend.
2. The Four Underlying Logics Supporting Bulls (Determining Limited Downside Potential)
Why can't we blindly keep going bearish or chasing shorts? The four major pillars have been around for a long time:
1. Continued gold purchases by global central banks (the strongest long-term buffer)
Central banks in multiple countries continue to increase their gold reserves, and the long-term trend of de-dollarization remains unchanged. During the price decline phase, it actually creates a window for central banks to buy on dips. The central bank is a strategic allocation fund and will not sell off short-term price fluctuations, continuously squeezing downside space.
But the key point: central bank gold purchases are a slow variable. It can only prevent a crash and cannot drive gold prices to sustain a sharp rise; relying solely on it is insufficient to form a major trend bottom.
2. Speculative short positions are fully released, while crowded long positions complete the clearing
Leveraged long positions who chased earlier rallies exited heavily during this round of deep pullback, while COMEX speculative long positions dropped sharply, leading to widespread pessimism in the market. In an oversold state, technical conditions for a rebound or recovery are always possible.
3. Global debt pressure has persisted for a long time
With the continued expansion of U.S. debt, long-standing concerns about dollar credit, gold's hedge value as a non-sovereign credit asset will not disappear for a long time. This round is merely an intermediate adjustment in the upward cycle, not the end of a long-term bull market.
4. Physical demand as a backup
Asian physical gold consumption shows resilience; after prices fall, demand for jewelry and physical gold stockpiling has rebounded, limiting a deep decline.
3. To determine the [true bottom confirmation], you must wait for all four major resonance signals (none can be missed).
Don't judge the bottom solely by price or technical overselling; historically, after countless oversold periods, new lows have been made. A sustainable upward bottom needs to meet all the following:
✅ Signal 1: The trend of the 10-year U.S. Treasury real yield is turning downward
Inflation data continues to cool, Fed officials have collectively turned dovish, the market has canceled rate hike expectations, and repriced rate cuts. This is the most core and prerequisite condition. As long as real interest rates fluctuate at high levels, any rebound is defined as a rebound recovery, not a reversal.
✅ Signal 2: Gold ETF funds have shifted from continuous outflows to sustained net inflows
Short-term single-day inflows are meaningless; it requires several consecutive weeks of institutional capital flowing back, representing medium- to long-term allocation funds re-entering the market.
✅ Signal 3: Futures position structure completes chip swap
Speculative short sellers took profits on a large scale, net long positions steadily increased, and market pessimistic expectations were completely reversed.
✅ Signal 4: The technical pattern has completed its bottoming structure
The low point gradually rose, firmly holding the key resistance level, and formed a W-bottom and consolidation pattern; Simply dipping the bottom with a single needle and rebounding quickly is just a recovery after panic, not a sign that the bottom has formed. Recall the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin for those who don't know it yet.
The rising phase usually lasts about 1064 days
The reduction period is about 364 days
This cycle is still repeating quite regularly over the years
Understanding this rhythm will help to look at the market a little more long-term
$BTC $XAU The Federal Reserve held its July policy meeting steady, with a surge in hawkish dissent, putting pressure on the crypto market and increasing downside risk for Ethereum.
On July 30, 2026, Beijing time, the U.S. Federal Reserve released the July FOMC meeting statement, deciding to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The market had widely expected a pause in rate hikes. However, the voting results sent a strong hawkish signal, casting a shadow over risk assets like Ethereum.
The vote was 9 in favor of maintaining the rate unchanged and 3 opposed. Members Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Loree Logan explicitly favored a 25 basis point rate hike at this meeting. Several members advocated for continued monetary tightening, highlighting the rise of hawkish forces within the Fed and significantly delaying market expectations for rate cuts.
Regarding the economic outlook, the Fed noted ongoing uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, steady economic expansion, strong productivity and capital investment, and a resilient labor market. Strong economic data means there is no urgent reason for the Fed to cut rates quickly. Inflation language remains tight; the committee acknowledges that current inflation is still above the 2% long-term target, with supply shocks in energy and other sectors continuing to push prices higher. It reiterated its commitment to price stability and kept the option for further rate hikes open.
The macro liquidity environment is the core logic behind crypto asset pricing. Ethereum is a high-risk growth asset whose price heavily depends on market dollar liquidity. Although the Fed paused rate hikes, multiple officials called for another hike, completely dispelling market expectations for near-term easing. The high interest rate environment will persist longer, keeping dollar funding costs elevated and continuing to shrink institutional risk appetite. Funds will keep flowing out of high-risk assets like crypto and into low-risk assets such as dollar cash and U.S. Treasuries.
Market interpretation sees this decision as a "nominal pause, substantive hawkishness." There was no signal of rate cuts, combined with three members demanding hikes, reversing the previous optimistic market sentiment betting on rate cuts this year. The dollar index has momentum to strengthen again, continuously suppressing crypto asset valuations. Ethereum lacks the support of liquidity easing dividends, limiting its upside potential, while bearish pressure gradually accumulates.$CORE DAO is once again pushing the narrative that 90% of Bitcoin's total hash rate is participating in network delegation. It sounds impressive, but the reality deserves a closer look. The effective delegated hash rate visible on-chain is estimated to be closer to 35% of Bitcoin's total network. The widely shared 90% figure mainly reflects mining pool support, not actual hash power securing the $CORE chain. Hash rate delegation doesn't redirect Bitcoin's mining power or provide security to CoThe rise in oil prices is accelerating.
Brent's intraday gains expanded from about 5.6% in the previous round to 6.7%, with the price reaching $87.60.
The direct cause is the renewed escalation of the war in Iran, and the market is once again concerned about crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
This does not mean that oil prices rise and BTC will necessarily fall. What really needs to be confirmed is whether oil prices, US Treasury yields, and the US dollar are rising in tandem.
My approach is to continue reducing leverage and avoid chasing the first wave of volatility. Wait for the Fed's results to be released, then see if cross-market signals are consistent.#美联储即将公布利率决议
I am Cige. The interest rate remains unchanged, but the 9-to-3 voting result is the real signal. The three dissenting votes—Logan, Harker, and Kashkari—all advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. The last meeting was a unanimous 12-0 vote; this time it split directly. All 104 economists bet on no change, but a quarter of the Fed insiders already believe that not raising rates is a mistake.
All three dissenters are worried about one thing:
Oil prices rebounded from $81.6, geopolitical conflicts persist, and trade tariffs continue to escalate. New tariffs take effect today, covering about 60 economies. Trump is still publicly calling for rate cuts. If inflation rises again, the Fed will be forced to hike aggressively at a less favorable time. They don’t want to wait until inflation spirals out of control to act; they want to embed expectations now. For Waller, the three dissenting votes mean increasing political and technical pressure to keep rates unchanged. Trump was still calling for rate cuts on Monday. Waller’s core challenge is to withstand presidential pressure while convincing the market he is not being hijacked by any side.
Impact on BTC
In the short term, unchanged rates meet expectations, and the market has fully priced this in. BTC is oscillating around 64,000 with no sharp moves. But the three dissenting votes mean the probability of a September hike has risen significantly. A high interest rate environment suppresses risk asset valuations; BTC, as a high-beta asset, faces short-term pressure. K33 Research’s head of research points out that Nasdaq positions are crowded, BTC is consolidating near multi-year lows, and their correlation is weakening. In the past 9 FOMC meetings, BTC fell on average about 10% after 8 of them.
In the medium term, the more hawkish the Fed, the faster fiat credit deteriorates, strengthening BTC’s non-sovereign narrative. Since July, BTC has risen about 6%, while the semiconductor sector has dropped nearly 20%, showing BTC is decoupling from tech stocks. Falling oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty have warmed rate cut expectations, limiting further rises in Treasury yields and providing some support to crypto assets.
Wait for Waller to finish speaking before acting
The three dissenting votes are not a rate hike but a warning of one. The decision itself is "no change," but the market prices the entire statement and press conference tone. If Waller hints that September will be a live meeting, BTC will spike short term then pull back. If the statement acknowledges inflation upside risks and multiple dissenting votes appear, BTC will likely test 63,000 to 62,500. The medium-term narrative remains unchanged; don’t heavily bet on direction before the press conference.
Cige has finished. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK 若美联储7月30日凌晨落地加息，$CORE整体将面临偏利空环境；且在同等宏观冲击下，CORE下跌幅度大概率显著大于BTC。
一、美联储加息三种情景行情推演
情景1：如期加息+鲍威尔发布会释放鹰派信号（暗示长期维持高利率），风险最高
1.宏观逻辑：美债收益率上行、美元走强，市场风险偏好快速回落，资金从高风险山寨加密资产撤离。
2.CORE盘面表现：
短期快速下行，大概率刷新阶段新低；BTC率先承压后山寨币种出现集体踩踏行情。CORE本身长期存在代币解锁抛压、套牢盘厚重、增量资金入场不足的问题，难以走出独立行情。项目方即便释放新叙事也仅能短期托底价格，无法对冲宏观层面的恐慌情绪，小幅反弹阶段便会遭遇解锁筹码集中抛售。
3.关键特征：项目利好叙事失效，质押用户恐慌性解套离场。
情景2：如期加息，但鲍威尔讲话偏鸽（暗示本次为最后一次加息），整体呈中性震荡走势
市场遵循“买预期、卖事实”的经典交易逻辑：
1.短期：决议落地瞬间盘面先下行，消化利空情绪；
2.中长期：资金开始博弈后续降息预期，BTC企稳带动大盘反弹；
3.CORE走势：被动跟随BTC修复，但反弹力度远弱于主流加密币种。
CORE的核心短板难以化解：即便大盘回暖，代币持续解锁抛压、OKX交易所投诉风险、项目叙事落地困难等内生问题依旧存在，难以实现趋势反转，大概率呈现弱势反弹后再度阴跌的走势。
情景3：美联储意外暂停加息，发生概率偏低，短期构成利好
加密风险资产迎来整体反弹，CORE跟随大盘脉冲式上涨。
⚠️风险提示：本轮反弹仅由市场情绪驱动，无法改善项目自身基本面。项目方大概率借助反弹窗口期减持筹码，短期拉升结束后价格将重回长期阴跌通道。
二、加息环境下CORE相对BTC更弱势的核心原因
1.资产分层效应凸显
加息周期流动性收紧时，资金优先避险，仅保留BTC这类共识度较高的底层资产；BTCFi赛道属于高风险投机题材，资金会优先抛售CORE等山寨币种。
2.内生解锁抛压放大宏观利空冲击
普通币种下跌主要由散户多空博弈主导；CORE叠加团队持续释放零成本解锁筹码。大盘出现恐慌下跌时，项目方缺乏主动护盘意愿，反弹阶段持续出货、下跌阶段无资金承接，进一步加速价格下行。
3.缺少机构长线资金托底支撑
BTC获得现货ETF、大型机构长期资金加持；CORE持仓以散户与社区信仰资金为主，缺少大型机构长期布局，行情恐慌阶段没有承接盘托底价格 。
4.多重利空因素叠加共振
当前已有大量用户向OKX提交市场操纵相关投诉，交易所层面持续将CORE标记为风险币种。宏观层面的加息利空叠加项目自身负面预期，形成双重压制效应。
三、行情时间节奏预判（参照加密市场历史运行规律）
1.决议公布前1‑2个交易日：资金提前博弈加息预期，盘面波动率放大；若市场提前计价加息利空，CORE将提前承压下行；
2.决议公布+鲍威尔发布会2小时区间：全天波动率峰值区间，盘面极易出现插针走势；
3.决议落地后3‑7个交易日：市场消化美联储政策信号，决定币种中期运行方向。
补充精简摘要版（适合社交平台短评发布）
美联储7月30日凌晨若落地加息，$CORE整体利空属性明确，同等冲击下跌幅大概率跑输BTC。分三种情景推演：鹰派加息下CORE大概率创阶段新低；加息但讲话偏鸽仅能实现弱势修复；意外不加息仅带来短期情绪反弹，难改长期阴跌格局。CORE弱势的核心在于代币持续解锁抛压、缺少机构资金托底、叠加交易所投诉负面舆情，宏观流动性收紧阶段会被资金优先抛售。行情节奏上决议前夜提前承压，发布会时段波动最大，后续一周决定中期走势。$CORE 你还相信它吗？#美联储即将公布利率决议
I am Cige. The interest rate remains unchanged, but the 9-to-3 voting result is the real signal. The three dissenting votes—Logan, Harker, and Kashkari—all advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. The last meeting was a unanimous 12-0 vote; this time it split directly. All 104 economists bet on no change, but a quarter of the Fed insiders already believe that not raising rates is a mistake.
All three dissenters are worried about one thing:
Oil prices rebounded from $81.6, geopolitical conflicts persist, and trade tariffs continue to escalate. New tariffs take effect today, covering about 60 economies. Trump is still publicly calling for rate cuts. If inflation rises again, the Fed will be forced to hike aggressively at a less favorable time. They don’t want to wait until inflation spirals out of control to act; they want to embed expectations now. For Waller, the three dissenting votes mean increasing political and technical pressure to keep rates unchanged. Trump was still calling for rate cuts on Monday. Waller’s core challenge is to withstand presidential pressure while convincing the market he is not being hijacked by any side.
Impact on BTC
In the short term, unchanged rates meet expectations, and the market has fully priced this in. BTC is oscillating around 64,000 with no sharp moves. But the three dissenting votes mean the probability of a September hike has risen significantly. A high interest rate environment suppresses risk asset valuations; BTC, as a high-beta asset, faces short-term pressure. K33 Research’s head of research points out that Nasdaq positions are crowded, BTC is consolidating near multi-year lows, and their correlation is weakening. In the past 9 FOMC meetings, BTC fell on average about 10% after 8 of them.
In the medium term, the more hawkish the Fed, the faster fiat credit deteriorates, strengthening BTC’s non-sovereign narrative. Since July, BTC has risen about 6%, while the semiconductor sector has dropped nearly 20%, showing BTC is decoupling from tech stocks. Falling oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty have warmed rate cut expectations, limiting further rises in Treasury yields and providing some support to crypto assets.
Wait for Waller to finish speaking before acting
The three dissenting votes are not a rate hike but a warning of one. The decision itself is "no change," but the market prices the entire statement and press conference tone. If Waller hints that September will be a live meeting, BTC will spike short term then pull back. If the statement acknowledges inflation upside risks and multiple dissenting votes appear, BTC will likely test 63,000 to 62,500. The medium-term narrative remains unchanged; don’t heavily bet on direction before the press conference.
Cige has finished. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Interest Rate Decision Announcement—No Rate Hike, as we basically confirmed this expectation earlier.
It is worth noting that under the Wash era, the Federal Reserve has truly achieved conciseness; the originally lengthy meeting statements have become shorter.
Additionally, the statement clearly indicated that three board members voted for a rate hike, meaning tonight's Federal Committee stance is relatively hawkish. Next, it depends on how Wash balances this expectation; otherwise, it could further suppress risk markets.
Among them, Kashkari, a Federal Reserve official with a Republican background, had previously maintained a relatively dovish stance but surprisingly voted for a rate hike in this meeting, signaling that rate hike expectations are growing stronger.
Federal Reserve swap contracts have already started pricing in a September rate hike. Although the pricing has not reached 100%, it is clear that the rate hike gamble is set for September. The data in August will be crucial; otherwise, the likelihood of a September rate hike will increase further, putting additional pressure on risk markets and investor confidence! #美联储即将公布利率决议 #美联储即将公布利率决议 The Federal Reserve keeps the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, holding steady for the fifth consecutive meeting. However, the voting split changed from 12-0 last time to 9-3 this time, with members Harker, Kashkari, and Logan voting against, supporting a rate hike.
The voting result is the real signal
No surprise in the rate hold, as all 104 economists bet on no change. But the three dissenting votes indicate that internal Fed divisions are much larger than the market perceives. Logan had previously publicly called for a rate hike and now formally expressed it through his vote. Before the decision, the implied probability of a July rate hike from OIS surged from 12% a week ago to 38%, and the September hike expectation rose to 82%. The three dissenting votes are telling the market that the rate hike option has not been shelved.
Short-term impact on BTC
The decision itself met expectations, and BTC did not experience sharp volatility, continuing to fluctuate around $64,000. But the three dissenting votes and the potentially hawkish tone in the statement mean the market needs to reprice the risk of a September hike. A high interest rate environment suppresses risk asset valuations, and BTC, as a high-beta asset, faces short-term pressure. K33 Research’s head of research noted that Nasdaq positioning is crowded, BTC is consolidating near multi-year lows, and their correlation is weakening, so this FOMC may have limited impact on BTC. In the past 9 FOMC meetings, BTC on average dropped about 10% after 8 of them.
Mid-term narrative unchanged
The more hawkish the Fed, the faster fiat currency credit erodes, which strengthens BTC’s non-sovereign narrative. Since July, BTC has risen about 6%, while the semiconductor sector has dropped nearly 20%. Any dovish signals could push Bitcoin to continue outperforming. Oil prices falling back to $81.6 eased some inflation concerns, but geopolitical tensions and trade tariffs remain upside risks.
Hold your positions, don’t heavily bet on direction before the press conference. Wait for Waller to finish speaking before making moves. "Overnight Financial Report"
1. Overall Market Overview
On July 27, the US AI hardware sector experienced a significant decline. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 2.2%, with SanDisk plummeting 11% and SK Hynix falling 7.5%. The sell-off sentiment spread to Asian markets, with the South Korean Composite Index triggering a circuit breaker after dropping more than 8% intraday and closing down 10.8% for the day. The Nikkei 225 Index also closed down 4%. The essence of this round of decline is a global reassessment of the credit and supply landscape in the technology sector. The real demand for AI has not substantially weakened; funds are shifting toward Hong Kong stocks for risk aversion and portfolio reallocation.
2. Underlying Logic Behind the Decline in US AI Hardware and Rising CDS of Overseas Cloud Providers
1. Significant upward revision of capital expenditure expectations fuels credit anxiety
Google raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance and increased AI infrastructure investment for 2027, prompting the market to raise overall spending forecasts for the four major cloud service providers to $731.9 billion and $950.2 billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively. The market realizes that the AI investment cycle and scale exceed earlier estimates, raising concerns about increased leverage among tech companies, cash flow pressure, and monetization efficiency lagging behind spending growth. CDS spreads for major cloud providers continue to widen.
2. Nvidia's closed-loop financing model amplifies market risk aversion
Nvidia offers financing and guarantees to downstream customers, encouraging them to use funds to purchase its chips, creating a tightly bound credit closed loop. Coupled with Nvidia's $500 billion cooperation with SK Hynix and negotiations with OpenAI for up to $250 billion in financing guarantees, the market fears leverage accumulation within the chain, where single-point risks could trigger a chain reaction of credit contagion.
3. Fundamentals have not materially deteriorated
Mainstream AI chip leasing prices remain stable, and real demand for computing power is resilient. Overseas cloud providers can raise funds through equity, various bonds, and government support, ensuring sufficient financing supply. Currently, credit risk remains at the market expectation level and will not constrain AI industry development in the short term.
3. Dual Core Reasons for the South Korean Stock Market Crash
First, two key breakthroughs in the domestic memory industry: ChangXin Memory Technologies listed on the A-share market, using fundraising to open large-scale expansion channels, unlocking import substitution space for domestic memory; domestic immersion DUV lithography machines have been commercialized, breaking equipment constraints for domestic memory companies. The original logic of tight memory supply is shaken, and funds have pre-priced the impact of increased domestic capacity on South Korean memory giants.
Second, the valuation premium formed by overseas tech companies relying on technology blockades and oligopolistic monopolies is entering a correction phase as the domestic supply chain continues autonomous breakthroughs. The valuation system of the Korean stock market's memory-weighted sector is being systematically repriced, triggering a sharp market sell-off.
4. Hong Kong Stocks Become the Main Global Capital Sink in This Round
Global AI sector trading was crowded earlier, with concentrated profit-taking and capital needing to shift to undervalued assets. Hong Kong stocks have multiple advantages: the index has deeply declined previously, with valuations long below historical averages, offering outstanding cost performance; listed companies have improved shareholder returns and digested unlocking selling pressure, combined with RMB stabilization boosting southbound capital allocation willingness, creating a positive capital flow cycle; short positions and short-selling volumes remain high, and short covering will continue to bring incremental buying. Overall, the trend of global capital returning to Hong Kong stocks is sustainable.
5. Risks to Watch in This Market
Escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, deterioration of China-US relations, central banks tightening monetary policies beyond expectations, slower-than-expected AI commercialization progress, and further abnormal widening of credit spreads for US tech giants. #停火48小时告吹，美伊边打边谈 This is not altcoin frenzy; it's a race to escape to safety.
The market is becoming extremely discerning. Liquidity is no longer just a fair influx of all altcoins but is highly concentrated in a few strong projects, while other coins continue to decline.
Currently, only these assets are truly showing relative strength: $HYPE, $ETH, $KAITO, $ZAMA, $SOON, $ALLO, $ZEC, and $XAU.
What do they have in common? Either it has exchange infrastructure support, or L1s that can generate real income, or solid yields, or a sufficiently solid narrative foundation. Meanwhile, the broader altcoin market is still in the phase of distributing chips.
Meanwhile, some coins are under tremendous pressure: $BEAT, $LAB, $SHIB, $WLD, $UB, $FIL, $LINK, $ONDO, $DOGE, $XRP, $ADA, especially those with very poor trading depth, where capital is fleeing rapidly. Once trading volume disappears, the support level simply won't last long.
Let's focus on $HYPE. Currently, the price is hovering around $54, still below the major EMA moving average, and market sentiment is in a state of extreme fear. The key range is $52 to $54. If this range is breached, the next liquidity zone may be much lower. For the bulls, I hope to see the price clearly reclaim the $54.5 to $56 range to get excited.
Bullish strategy: Only consider entering after confirming the recovery of $54.5, set stop-losses below $53.8, targeting $56 to $56.5. Defensive strategy: hold your position. No recovery, no trade. In a downtrend, a rebound without volume is just another trap.
Indeed, protocol income remains strong, with rumors that ETFs saw over $170 million in inflows in early July. However, planned unlocks and broader risk rotations continue to weigh on prices.
The big picture is actually quite simple: this is not a season of widespread price hikes for knockoffs. This is a race toward infrastructure. Exchange-native assets and projects with stronger fundamentals are receiving final bids, while weaker altcoins continue to bleed.
If $HYPE cannot reclaim key positions, then the margin for error for other altcoins will only shrink.
Stay picky. Liquidity is the key. 👀
#FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight #SKHynixRecordMiss #DailyOrbitFamily! How is everyone? Don't be too pessimistic; good news might be coming soon.
1. The Federal Reserve basically won't raise interest rates this time. First, the U.S. foreign debt is already at $39.46 trillion, exceeding the U.S. GDP for the first time since World War II. If rates were raised, every 1 percentage point increase in the average interest rate would add $360 billion in annual interest expenses. This year, the U.S. government's interest expenses have already reached $1.1 trillion, which is on the same scale as military spending. So raising rates by 25 basis points at this point would really blow up the U.S. government.
2. Also, the position of this person, Waller, is really delicate. He was appointed by Trump to succeed Powell, and Trump publicly said that whether or not to cut rates was his litmus test for choosing the next Fed chair. On the eve of Waller's nomination as Fed chair, he publicly stated that rate cuts should be accelerated and even defended Trump's tariff policies! The last thing he wants to do now, just three months into his term, is to raise rates.
3. Furthermore, the June CPI has already fallen to 3.5%, core inflation is 2.6%, month-over-month is flat, and nonfarm payrolls have slowed, with the previous two months' data revised downward. Inflation is decreasing to some extent, and under this combination, there is no urgent reason to raise rates immediately! Goldman Sachs directly said the June inflation data effectively rules out a rate hike in July. CICC, Barclays, Credit Suisse, and Pictet all expect no change this time, and Morgan Stanley says no change for the whole year.
4. The worst hit in this drop are precisely those high-valuation growth stocks, whose valuations rely entirely on discounted future cash flows. If interest rates rise, the discount rate goes up, and valuations get directly suppressed. Stocks like $MU, $SKHYNIX, AI hardware, and semiconductors, which have surged many times before, are very sensitive to interest rates. Not raising rates can temporarily remove the stone pressing down on them!
5. Another thing I found almost no one talks about is that much of the money for this round of AI development is actually borrowed. Tesla just arranged a $30 billion debt facility, and the direct debt of six major cloud providers has already reached $460 billion. If interest rates continue to rise, the interest on these debts will have to be recalculated, making the AI capital expenditure bill look even worse. This scenario is something Yongchen simply can't imagine.
After saying so much, Yongchen has to pour a bucket of cold water on the brothers first: the probability of a rate hike in September has already reached 82%. So not raising rates this time doesn't mean the problem has disappeared; for now, it should be considered a reprieve, not an acquittal. So brothers still hoping for rate cuts, don't think too much yet. The result released at midnight is not just about the number; we also have to see what Waller will say at the press conference. $BTC The Federal Reserve's latest decision maintains the interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive pause in adjustments. On one hand, inflation is still some distance from the 2% target, with oil price fluctuations influenced by geopolitical conflicts, leaving room for inflation to rebound; on the other hand, U.S. economic and employment data show resilience, with no urgent need for rate cuts to support the economy. The Federal Reserve chooses to keep a wait-and-see policy, continuing to await more economic data, avoiding market turmoil caused by frequent policy changes, while also addressing external risks brought by global geopolitical situations.
The biggest highlight of this decision is the significant change in the voting pattern, ultimately passing the resolution with a 9-3 ratio, whereas the previous meeting reached a unanimous 12-0 consensus. Three hawkish members advocated for a rate hike, concerned that the current rates may not be sufficient to continuously suppress stubborn inflation. The voting split highlights internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, overall sending a hawkish signal, further cooling market expectations for rate cuts within the year. #美联储即将公布利率决议 $BTC $ETH $SNDK 1. Latest Federal Reserve Decision: As Expected, No Change, but Significant Internal Divisions
In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve FOMC voted 9 to 3 to keep the federal funds target rate range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. The dissenting votes from Harker, Kashkari, and Logan favored a 25 basis point rate hike.
Key Signals:
· The statement reiterated that inflation remains above the 2% target, partly due to supply shocks such as energy
· This marks the fifth consecutive time this year the Fed has held rates steady
· This meeting was one of the most uncertain in recent years—UBS economists called it "the highest uncertainty in 20 years"
· Market pricing before the decision: about 70% probability of no rate change, about 30% probability of a hike
---
2. Three Scenario Analyses for Ethereum’s Subsequent Trend
Scenario 1: No Change (Baseline Scenario) — Short-term Neutral, Mid-term Depends on Statement Tone
The decision to hold rates steady basically aligns with mainstream market expectations. However, market focus has shifted to September rate hike expectations—current market pricing shows a 56.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike in September.
For ETH:
· Short-term: With uncertainty removed, risk assets may get a brief respite. After the decision, the US dollar index fell 0.27%, the Nasdaq turned positive, and crypto market sentiment may follow suit.
· Mid-term: If the statement is hawkish (implying a September hike), ETH will likely remain under pressure near $1900.
Scenario 2: Unexpected Rate Hike (Low Probability Black Swan) — Significantly Negative
If the Fed unexpectedly raises rates by 25 basis points:
· JPMorgan estimates the S&P 500 could plunge 1.5%-2%
· The dollar and US Treasury yields would rise sharply, putting pressure on gold, stocks, and risk assets including crypto
· ETH could break recent support levels, possibly testing below $1800
Scenario 3: Hawkish Pause (Most Likely) — Limited Positive Impact
The most likely outcome is "no change + hawkish tone." The three dissenting votes themselves are a strong hawkish signal. Even without a hike, if market expectations for a September hike strengthen further, ETH’s upside will be limited.
---
3. Ethereum’s Own Fundamentals: Supported but Facing Resistance
Support Factors:
· ETH is currently oscillating near $1900, with a nearly 24.6% gain in July, making it one of the strongest performing major coins this month
· On-chain staking rate hit a historic high of 34%, exchange reserves continue to decline, providing bottom support
· Spot ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive weeks, with $103.9 million in a single week
Resistance Factors:
· ETH fell about 47.1% in the first half of the year, significantly worse than Bitcoin’s 33.1%
· The $1900-$1950 range is an important technical resistance zone
· In the past 24 hours, $308 million in liquidations occurred across the network, including $29.41 million in ETH long liquidations
---
4. Summary
The Fed’s July decision to "hold rates steady + 3 dissenting votes" basically met expectations but sent a clear hawkish signal. For Ethereum:
Short-term (a few days): After uncertainty settles, a technical rebound is possible, but the $1900 level remains a key battleground.
Mid-term (until September): The core variable is the probability of a September hike (currently 56.4%). If inflation data continues to rise, ETH will face macro headwinds; if data improves, a larger rebound may be possible.
Key points to watch: Wash’s statements at the press conference, upcoming CPI and employment data, and whether ETH can effectively hold above $1900 and break through the $1950-$2000 resistance zone.
Currently, ETH is in a tug-of-war near $1900. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent Fed policy signals and changes in on-chain capital flows. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #美联储即将公布利率决议 #美联储即将公布利率决议
I am Cige, and the result is out.
The Federal Reserve has kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, holding steady for the fifth consecutive meeting. However, the voting ratio changed from 12-0 last time to 9-3 this time, with members Harker, Kashkari, and Logan voting against, supporting a rate hike.
The voting result is the real signal.
The unchanged rate was expected, with all 104 economists betting on no change. But the three dissenting votes indicate that internal Fed divisions are much greater than the market perceives. Logan had previously publicly called for a rate hike and this time spoke through his vote. Before the decision, the OIS-implied probability of a July rate hike surged from 12% a week ago to 38%, and the expectation for a September hike rose to 82%. The three dissenting votes are telling the market that the rate hike option has not been shelved.
Short-term impact on BTC
The decision itself met expectations, and BTC did not experience sharp fluctuations, continuing to oscillate around $64,000. But the three dissenting votes and the possibly hawkish tone in the statement mean the market needs to reprice the risk of a September hike. A high interest rate environment suppresses risk asset valuations, and BTC, as a high-beta asset, faces short-term pressure. K33 Research's head of research pointed out that Nasdaq positions are crowded, BTC is consolidating near multi-year lows, and the correlation between the two is weakening, so this FOMC may have limited impact on BTC. In the past 9 FOMC meetings, BTC has on average dropped about 10% after 8 of them.
The mid-term narrative remains unchanged
The more hawkish the Fed, the faster fiat currency credit erodes, which strengthens BTC's non-sovereign narrative. Since July, BTC has risen about 6%, while the semiconductor sector has fallen nearly 20%. Any dovish signals could push Bitcoin to continue outperforming. Oil prices falling back to $81.6 have eased some inflation concerns, but geopolitical tensions and trade tariffs remain upside risks.
Hold your positions, don’t heavily bet on direction before the press conference. Wait for Wash to finish speaking before making moves.
Cige is done. Think it over. #美联储即将公布利率决议 $BTC $ETH $SNDK The Federal Reserve Holds Steady, but Three Votes for a Rate Hike Refocus Market Attention on September
The Federal Reserve's July meeting concluded with interest rates held steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range.
However, the market's real focus is not on the pause in rate hikes, but on the clear internal division within the Fed.
In this FOMC vote, three officials—Harmak, Kashkari, and Logan—supported a 25 basis point rate increase.
This indicates that although the Fed is temporarily pausing, the hawkish forces have not disappeared, and market trading focus has shifted from July to September.
Currently, the U.S. economy remains in a contradictory state:
On one hand, employment and consumption are cooling down, increasing economic pressure;
On the other hand, inflation has not fully returned to target, and oil prices and geopolitical risks may bring new inflationary pressures.
For the market, the key question going forward is not whether the Fed will hike rates, but whether future data will change the policy expectations for September.
---
In the short term, the Fed's decision not to raise rates reduces the biggest policy risk for the market.
If inflation continues to decline, the market may reprice rate cut expectations, potentially weakening the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which could provide liquidity support for BTC.
However, the three votes for a rate hike also remind the market:
The Fed has not fully shifted to a dovish stance.
If future CPI and employment data come in stronger again, expectations for a September hike will rise, putting pressure on BTC.
Compared to BTC, altcoins are more sensitive to liquidity.
If the market enters a rate cut expectation phase:
High market cap assets like $ETH and $SOL may gain greater elasticity;
With risk appetite recovering, funds may flow back into the altcoin market.
But if rate expectations turn hawkish again, high-volatility coins will be the first to feel the pressure.
The biggest signal from this meeting is:
A pause in July does not mean easing has begun.
The market will now focus on the rate path for September and the entire second half of the year.
For the crypto market, the short-term focus is on policy expectations, and the medium-term focus is on liquidity.
Ultimately, the price will tell the market the answer.
$BTC $AEON $SNDK
#美联储即将公布利率决议 Honestly, CORE's price movement is quite painful for anyone—the February 2023 high was $6.14, now hovering around 0.1, down 97%. At first glance, I wanted to close the candlestick, but recently I casually checked the project's actions over the past six months and on-chain data, and found something quite counterintuitive: the coin price has cooled down, but the on-chain and ecosystem haven't just lain down; in fact, they're quietly accumulating things. Below, I'll lay out the coin price, project team, and on-chain topics. This is not a suggestion—just observation. 🪙 ------ Let's look at the coin price first: It's really bad, but the selling pressure structure is shifting. CORE is currently fluctuating around $0.1, with a market cap around $100 million, a 97% drawdown from the peak, making it one of the most "reset" levels among altcoins. But one detail is worth mentioning—the project team changed the original "direct fee burning" system to protocol revenue buyback CORE + ecosystem incentives + validator subsidies, with the total supply of 2.1 billion unchanged. Combined with the CIP-9 dual staking threshold increase (Satoshi level raised from 34,000:1 to 68,000:1), it effectively forces those wanting to earn high BTC staking yields to lock multiple COREs. The latest disclosure shows that total network staking has surpassed 300 million tokens, with circulating tokens just over 1 billion, meaning nearly 30% is locked and unmoved. Whether selling pressure is really hard to say, but the "selling structure" is different from a year ago. 🔧 ------ The project team is not idle, which is quite surprisingIn JAN3's 2025 Bitcoin $BTC Adoption Report by Country, the US topped the list with 328,000 coins, but these coins were not purchased by the market itself—all came from judicial and criminal seizures: 94,600 coins seized from the Silk Road case, 94,600 recovered by Bitfinex hackers, and 127,000 coins confiscated in the Prince Group fraud case last year alone. Essentially, these coins are a byproduct of law enforcement investigations, not proactive savings by the state.
These reserves were established based on the March 2025 executive order, not the formal implementation of legislation S.954. Policy stability depends entirely on the ruling authorities, and bans and sales rules will fluctuate with regime changes.
The top-ranked countries on the list struggled to maintain their holdings long-term: North Korea used hackers to steal 13,500 BTC from exchanges and cashed out most of it within half a year; Bhutan, regarded as a benchmark for hydromining, saw its holdings shrink from 13,000 BTC in October 2024 to 3,100 BTC in May 2026—a reduction of over 70% in 18 months. Its state-owned investment institution DHI has consistently denied any sell-offs.
Only El Salvador holds 7,725 coins, which is 1/40 of the U.S.'s holdings, yet it has not reduced its holdings throughout the entire process.
The logic behind holding positions varies greatly between countries: coins seized will flow out as policies shift, mining yields will be cashed out when profits decline, and stolen profits are intended for immediate use and will not be held long-term from the start. The way you acquire your Bitcoin has long determined whether you can hold it in a bear market.Complete Market Movement Simulation After FOMC Announcement (Decision at 02:00 Beijing Time, Press Conference at 02:30)
⚠️ Risk Warning: This is only a market logic simulation and does not constitute investment advice. Historical statistics: 60% of the time, the market reverses during Powell's press conference; the first wave at 02:00 is often a false breakout, so do not chase the first candlestick.
Timing Rhythm (Two Waves of Market Movement)
1. 02:00 Policy Statement Release (First Wave, Algorithmic Automated Order Sweeps)
Machines quickly read the text, causing instant pulse-like price moves, rapid fluctuations, and large slippage, mostly short-term emotional reactions that do not represent the final direction.
2. 02:30–03:00 Powell Press Conference (Second Wave, the Real Market Direction)
The wording during the Q&A and the stance on September will determine the closing direction that night. There are many reversal scenarios such as “rising at 02:00, then plunging after the speech; falling at 02:00, then pulling back after the speech.”
Scenario One: Baseline | Rate Hold, Overall Hawkish Tone (Highest Probability, Hawkish Pause)
Speech: Inflation risks remain, the September rate hike window is not closed, no hint of easing.
Market Sequence:
1) 02:00: Rates as expected, US stocks, memory storage (MU/SNDK/SKHY), BTC briefly pulse upward; US Treasury yields slightly retreat, USD briefly weakens.
2) 02:30 Powell delivers hawkish remarks:
- US Treasury yields rise, USD index strengthens;
- US stocks Nasdaq, semiconductors, and memory surge then fall back with long upper shadows; the rebound is a window to reduce positions; value sectors relatively resilient;
- Crypto market BTC, ETH fall from highs; altcoins (BEAT, RE) decline more sharply;
- Overall close: risk assets oscillate weakly, difficult to sustain a strong rally.
Scenario Two: Better Than Expected | Hold, Clearly Dovish Tone (Low Probability, Dovish Pause)
Speech: Inflation risks decline, weakens possibility of September hike, no further hikes emphasized.
Market Sequence:
1) 02:00: Slight fluctuations, no sharp reaction;
2) 02:30 speech signals easing:
- US Treasury yields fall, USD weakens;
- US stocks Nasdaq, semiconductor and memory sectors rebound aggressively; MU, SNDK, SKHY oversold recovery; growth outperforms value;
- Crypto market risk appetite fully opens, BTC challenges 65000, ETH rises in sync, small and mid altcoins collectively recover.
Scenario Three: Black Swan | Immediate 25bp Hike (Tail Risk)
Market Sequence:
1) 02:00 immediate gap down with no rebound;
- US Treasury yields surge violently, USD soars;
- US stocks decline across the board, Nasdaq and memory sectors MU/SNDK/SKHY accelerate breakdown;
- Crypto market mass sell-off, BTC breaks below 62800 lifeline, contract liquidations cascade, altcoin losses widen.
Sector Strength and Weakness Rules (Decision Night)
1. High beta assets (Micron, SanDisk, SKHY, BTC, ETH, altcoins): highest volatility, surge sharply on good news, plunge hard on bad news;
2. Value defensive (Dow components, utilities, consumer staples): resist decline in hawkish environment; gains weaker than tech growth in dovish environment;
3. Chinese concept stocks: less affected by Fed than US domestic tech, more influenced by domestic sentiment.
Key Practical Reminders
1. Do not use the first pulse at 02:00 as a trading basis; wait until the 02:30 speech is fully digested to judge true or false breakout.
2. Memory stocks just experienced a big drop, news-driven volatility is amplified; crypto market leverage is stacked, two-way spikes and stop-loss sweeps are highly probable, recommend reducing leverage.
3. The early morning decision is not the end: On July 30 at 20:30 US time, Q2 GDP + PCE inflation data will again revise liquidity expectations, and the market will continue to #美联储即将公布利率决议.1. First, clarify the timing and basic market background 2:00 AM Beijing time corresponds to around 14:00 Eastern Time (the usual intraday trading session for US stocks). In the previous trading day, the storage sector experienced consecutive fierce sell-offs: SanDisk plunged 14.9% in a single day, SK Hynix plunged 12%, and Micron fell 8.5%. Funds panicked and fled, with many short-term long positions cutting losses and exiting. This early morning rally was a recovery rebound after an oversold stock, not a sudden major first-tier positive development, but rather the result of multiple emotions, capital, and sector resonance stacked. 2. Searching across the internet, no [Breaking Exclusive Major News] Key conclusion: No real-time on-market industry announcements, no sudden institutional rating upgrades overnight, no new NAND flash memory price increase notices, no major corporate orders/M&A news implemented. There is no single explosive news that directly drives the market; the market is driven by technical capital actions + sector sentiment recovery. III. The Four Core Underlying Logic Behind the Rally 1. Pre-catalyst: Seagate Technology's exceeding earnings laid the foundation for the sector's rebound (the most important driver). After the market closed on July 28, hard drive leader Seagate Technology (STX)** released its financial report: net profit surged 165% year-on-year, AI large-capacity storage orders were abundant, and cloud vendors had long-term supply agreements scheduled through 2029. This financial report reversed market pessimism, prompting funds to revise their judgment: the market had previously been overly pessimistic, one-sidedly promoting "storage overcapacity," while ignoring the continued growth of AI inference and vector databases for large-capacity NAND/enterprise SSDs. Xijie took the leadTonight's 02:00 candle was initially taken by the market as a positive signal 🚨
The Federal Reserve just announced: interest rates remain unchanged at `3.50%-3.75%`.
On the surface, this aligns with the market's main expectation of "no change."
But the details aren't dovish, as the vote was `9-3`, with 3 members dissenting and wanting a 25bp rate hike.
In other words:
Rates stayed put, so the market breathed a sigh of relief;
But inside the Fed, some think it's still not tight enough.
From 01:59 to 02:05, OKX's four perpetual contracts reacted directly:
BTC: `64180 → high 64664 → 64467`
ETH: `1913.41 → high 1936.6 → 1926`
SNDK: `1049.15 → high 1079.98 → 1067.46`
XAU: `4051.5 → high 4092 → 4076.2`
First point: Crypto surged first, but BTC didn't break through the previous high in one go.
$BTC jumped from 64252 at 02:00 to a high of 64664, then pulled back above 64400.
This shows the market's initial reaction was risk-on, but resistance remains around `64664-64744`.
🔴 BTC resistance: `64664 / 64744`
🟢 BTC support: `64226 / 64169`
⚠ If it falls below `64169`, this recent move becomes a false breakout.
$ETH is a bit stronger than BTC.
It not only surged but also held above 1920 afterward, reaching a high of `1936.6`.
As long as `1921-1924` holds in the short term, ETH remains stronger than BTC.
Second point: Precious metals reacted the most but also pulled back the fastest.
$XAU jumped from `4051.5` to `4092` in one minute, an exaggerated move.
But it didn't continue higher and fell back near `4076`, indicating profit-taking above 4090.
🔴 XAU resistance: `4092 / 4100`
🟢 XAU support: `4072 / 4050`
⚠ If it falls back below `4050`, tonight's gold move is just an emotional spike.
Third point: US stocks direction lifted SNDK but hasn't fully reversed yet.
SNDK surged from `1049` to `1079.98`, a strong rise.
However, it's still clearly weak over 24h, with a previous high at `1166.85`, so this looks more like a short-term rebound from the rate event, not a direct trend reversal to bullish.
🔴 SNDK resistance: `1080 / 1086`
🟢 SNDK support: `1060 / 1052`
⚠ Losing `1052` weakens the rebound structure.
Personal view:
This data is neither purely dovish nor purely hawkish.
Rates unchanged, market rallies first because no rate hike was seen.
But 3 voting members want a hike, showing the Fed is still uneasy about inflation. Especially since the statement mentioned steady economic expansion, persistent inflation, and energy shocks, which is not a tone for immediate rate cuts.
In the short term, the market will trade the "no hike" easing expectation first.
But if Powell's speech later continues to suppress rate cut expectations, tonight's rally could easily turn into a pump-and-dump.
Don't just look at how much it rose now.
What really matters is: can BTC hold above 64664, can ETH hold above 1920, and can XAU break above 4092 again?
If they hold, risk-on continues.
If not, this recent move is just the typical emotional sweep around meetings.
#美联储即将公布利率决议 Discussions about including crypto assets in financial product regulation have recently been brought back to the forefront by X Hot Topic Summary. The popularity indicates the market is paying attention to changes in the regulatory framework, but it cannot directly infer market trends, nor can it be written as an ETF already approved.
The fact that can currently be verified is: the Japanese Diet has amended the law to include crypto assets in the financial instruments framework, and the regulatory logic will place greater emphasis on information disclosure, investor protection, and unfair trading constraints; The public legal interpretation also points out that relevant regulatory responsibilities will shift from the Payment Services Law to the Financial Instruments Exchange Law. As for when spot ETFs will be implemented and which assets will be available, these are still follow-up institutional arrangements, not the results already confirmed by the current heated debate.
What ordinary readers should truly pay attention to is "what obligations the classification changes bring," rather than first translating regulatory news into an upward narrative: clearly understanding the scope of application, disclosure requirements, enforcement timeline, and official rules before assessing the impact. ETF timelines, asset lists, and price conclusions without independent document confirmation are all considered unknown for now.#美联储即将公布利率决议
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, maintaining the benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75%.
Market impact analysis:
BTC may experience short-term volatility since expectations for a rate cut have not intensified, and liquidity release is temporarily paused. However, in the medium to long term, as the next rate cut cycle approaches and the funding environment improves, BTC will still benefit.
In the US stock market, the high interest rate environment continues to pressure tech stock valuations, with the AI sector's focus shifting to earnings reports and profit realization.
Gold is under short-term pressure due to cooling rate cut expectations, but global safe-haven demand and central bank gold purchases still support the long-term outlook.
This rate decision is not the end; the real market impact depends on the Federal Reserve's next steps regarding the rate cut path.🔥 $ETH Planet News | Severe Divergence in ETF Funds! BTC ETFs are flowing out, ETH ETFs are attracting funds against the trend, and institutional funds are rotating throughout
On July 27, there was a clear divergence in the flow of funds for US spot crypto ETFs:
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $11.64 million overall, with BlackRock IBIT seeing a single outflow of $8.82 million;
Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $9.23 million, while BlackRock's ETHA absorbed $11.75 million, offsetting the slight outflows from other Ethereum funds.
Market Background: On the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, BTC is under trading pressure, on-chain exchanges and exchanges continue to decline, and long-term holders are holding onto coins;
Core conclusion: Funds are not completely withdrawing from the crypto sector, but rather internal sector repositioning and tactical rotation from BTC to ETH.
🚨 Clash hook
Many interpret this as institutions abandoning Bitcoin and fully shifting to Ethereum! Here, it's important to distinguish rationally: single-day capital flows represent short-term portfolio rebalancing and should not be directly equated with a long-term trend reversal.
Ethereum has gained institutional favor thanks to its multiple narratives of RWA, AI agents, and on-chain applications, but the Fed's decision in the early morning remains the biggest market variable. If macro sentiment turns hawkish, this round of capital rotation could be interrupted at any time!
1. The three core logics behind the data
1. Mechanism configuration logic has undergone a phased shift
BTC leans toward a digital gold hedging narrative and lacks continuous new application revenue;
ETH supports numerous implementation scenarios such as RWA tokenization, DeFi, and AI agent payments, making it easier for institutions to gain incremental allocation during the growth phase of capital seeking.
2. This is a short-term portfolio rebalancing, not a trend exit for BTC
This outflow was moderate to a single day, with no epic large-scale redemptions. A large amount of funds is only swapping positions within crypto assets, without completely exiting the entire sector.
BTC balances on exchanges continued to decline, but long-term spot holders did not panic sell, and the on-exchange chip lock-in remained stable.
3. Differences in market elasticity expectations
As the interest rate decision approaches, funds predict: if liquidity recovers later, ETH, with its ecosystem narrative, has higher upward potential than BTC, so it is making small preparations in advance.
⚠️ Four major risks that cannot be ignored
1. Only single-day data cannot directly infer medium- to long-term sustained inflows; multiple consecutive days of capital flow verification are required;
2. The outcome of the Federal Reserve's decision determines the overall situation. If the speech leans hawkish, both ETFs are likely to be redempted simultaneously;
3. Trapped positions are concentrated above, and the positive factors brought by capital rotation are likely to lead to 'early digestion of expectations, rallies and pullbacks after implementation';
4. The market is extremely polarized, with positive news mainly passing through the ETH main line, making it difficult for most altcoins to receive capital dividends.
Reference price levels
$BTC: 64306 | Resistance at 64500/65100, support at 63800/63200
$ETH: 1896 | Resistance at 1940, support at 1870
⚠ Practical trading reminders
ETF capital differentiation strengthens ETH's relative resilience. You can focus on buying opportunities on dips in the main theme, but avoid heavy positions betting on one-sided market moves.
Focus on ETH trading volume at the 1940 resistance level; no volume pushing higher, no chasing gains;
Priority Trading: Focus on ETH, AI+RWA leading stocks KAITO, ZAMA, $LAB; Stay away from storyless, low-liquidity knockoffs.
All positions are awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision to be implemented, avoiding the risk of two-way insertion before and after the decision.
💬 Interactive question: Institutional funds shifting from BTC to ETH—do you think this will lead to a sustained rotation trend? Share in the comments!Before the interest rate meeting, let's start with the conclusion: although some forecasts predict a 30% chance of a rate hike today, a rate hike is basically impossible, and even the key market bet on a September rate hike is also basically impossible.
Currently, looking at the situation in the US stock market, if a rate hike occurs now, the financing environment will worsen + Q2 earnings pressure on US stocks, the US stock market will inevitably crash.
Especially given that investors in the current US earnings reports expect companies to verify profitability and have raised future expectations, if the future financing environment deteriorates further, it will definitely be a clear blow to corporate stock prices.
The US stock market is a bottom line that both US political parties must defend, followed by US Treasury bonds and the US dollar. Stocks, bonds, and currency are key factors that every president cannot ignore. So if any president causes the stock market to collapse, their approval rating will not be good, especially facing sensitive midterm elections. Trump is the least willing to see this situation.
Looking at Waller, although he has his own ideas, in the short term he still cannot break free from Trump's restrictions and control. So even if the board members emphasize rate hike expectations, I believe Waller will try to maintain a balance.
Regarding Waller's subsequent speeches, I think he will choose a balance point. Obviously, Waller's policy is to bring the market into an era of high interest rates + balance sheet reduction with limited liquidity, directing controllable liquidity towards the AI narrative and US stocks, supporting the current large narrative and valuation of US stocks.
Conclusion verification:
This is a major focus this week. After the Federal Reserve's decision and Waller's speech, tomorrow will see the June PCE report. This inflation data will further price in views on inflation and interest rate expectations. Moreover, the Fed is very likely to receive the June data in advance, so tonight's Fed decision and Waller's speech may already reflect the results of the June PCE data.
Once inflation is verified, then comes the US GDP. Stable US economic data helps support the current US stock market trend. Whether the AI high valuation bubble can be supported depends on whether the US economy can provide support under the macro environment.
Macro determines whether money is expensive; earnings reports determine whether money should be invested. In this environment, I think from Trump to Waller, all should avoid the US stock market entering a "Davis double kill" scenario.
Looking at the financial markets, gold is strengthening, the dollar is weakening, and the 1-year US Treasury yield is falling. Clearly, before the rate decision, the market has already started pricing in no rate hike. Next, we will see Waller's performance!
PS: Another reason Waller maintains high interest rates is that when central banks worldwide return to a rate hike trend, the current rates of the US dollar and US Treasuries have certain advantages. This can indirectly siphon global liquidity, which is beneficial for US dollar capital!
So, neutrality, I believe, is the theme of Waller's speech tonight. If the board members are too hawkish, he will be responsible for balancing it, maintaining future high interest rate expectations but not allowing rate hikes to rise excessively, which would currently stimulate further declines in the US stock market #美联储即将公布利率决议 II. The Deep Meanings Behind Three "What to Watch Next"
🔴 1. Court Rulings on Data Scraping — A Life-or-Death Legal Risk
This is the Achilles' heel of Grass's business model.
Grass's core business is "helping AI companies scrape publicly available web data." But there is a massive gray area here: can publicly available data be freely scraped?
$GRASS Let me start with my conclusion: SEN's rebound this round is more like spot buying and short covering driving a combination, rather than a massive chase by new leveraged funds. Prices and trading volumes are hot, but open interest is almost stagnant—this contrast is even more worth reading than just looking at the gains. As of 01:00 Beijing time on July 30, based on the 5-minute candlestick chart that has closed, SENT rebounded from about $0.01138 to $0.01238 on OKX spot, a twelve-hour increase of about 8.8%, while Binance spot rose about 8.9% over the same period, with the two sides showing basically consistent trends. Even more obvious is trading volume: OKX's spot trading volume is about 3.5 times that of the previous same-length window, Binance's is about 8.2 times; the trading volumes of both perpetual contracts have also expanded to about 2.2 and 2.5 times, respectively. In other words, this is not an isolated rally lacking trading support; funds have indeed entered the market. But that's where the problem lies. Looking at coin-denominated interest during the same period, OKX's SENT contract open interest decreased by about 0.05%, while Binance increased by only about 0.14%, far below price and volume changes. Binance's long-short account ratio also dropped from about 0.52 to 0.47, with about 68% of accounts on the short side around 01:00; The OKX account long-short ratio fell from about 1.87 to 1.78, still bullish, but did not continue to expand. Meanwhile, funding rates on both sides remained moderate, with no sustained increase. My understanding is: after spot demand pushes prices up, some short sellers are forced to cover,If I'm being perfectly reasonable, unbiased, and objective,
A -10%+ correction in Legacy from the highs this year will likely mark the HTF macro bottom for $BTC .
Whether we actually test 50K depends on if BTC shows weakness with Legacy, because there have been many times in the past where crypto displayed relative strength instead.
Bears have about 1.5 months to push BTC as low as they can.
If we’re not at 50K by then… you can kiss that level goodbye.The Federal Reserve stands at a turbulent crossroads. With current Chairman Kevin Warsh repeatedly hinting that he will break the market tradition of "advance notification," the upcoming interest rate decision to be announced this Wednesday has become the most unpredictable suspense in recent years. Although current federal funds rate futures show that keeping rates unchanged is still highly likely (about 64%), the "rate hiker" sentiment is expanding at an unprecedented pace. Cracks within the Federal Reserve have become more public. Dallas Fed President Logan has clearly advocated for a modest rate hike, while hawkish officials such as Hamack, Kashkari, and Governor Waller have also stated that if inflation persists, further tightening monetary policy should be an option. Christophe Hodge, Chief Economist at Natixis, pointed out that although recent inflation data has eased, oil price fluctuations are squeezing the Fed's room to wait. Dovish Maintains: The S&P 500 is expected to rise 0.5% to 1%, which is currently the best scenario for the market; Hawkish Maintenance: The most likely scenario. Although rates are maintained, the rhetoric remains tough, with the stock market expected to fluctuate between ±0.5%; Unexpected rate hikes: Although the probability is only about 36%, if it materializes, the S&P 500 could face a sharp sell-off of 1.5% to 2%. $ETH $SKHYNIX $SPCX Tonight's market, the hardest part is not choosing a direction, but not jumping the gun.
The Federal Reserve will meet on July 28–29, and both Meta and Microsoft have confirmed they will release earnings after the U.S. stock market closes on July 29. Interest rate guidance and AI capital expenditures will be announced within a few hours, and any one-sided move in $QQQ during the session may just be temporary positioning before the events.
I will keep my position low and wait until the decision and both earnings reports are out before making a move. Those who act first are betting on the order, not necessarily the judgment. Data as of July 30, 01:29 (Beijing time), for market observation only, not investment advice.
#USStocks #Nasdaq #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason $LAB снова удивляет.
45% всего предложения токена внезапно оказалось на совершенно новых кошельках.
37 адресов.
404,159,163 $LAB .
И ни одной продажи.
Самое необычное — суммы практически идентичны.
Складывается ощущение, что распределение происходило по заранее написанному сценарию.
Пока рынок ищет ответ, токены продолжают спокойно лежать без движения.
Главный вопрос сейчас не в том, что произошло.
А в том, что произойдет, когда хотя бы один из этих кошельков впервые отправит $LAB дальше.
Это не инвестиционная рекомендация. Образовательный обзор.昨日韩国综合指数暴跌11%，SK海力士的股价遭受重创。但阿简觉得这件事里最有意思的是这次冲击传导的路径：与SK海力士美国存托凭证（ADR）挂钩的永续合约，在Hyperliquid上出现闪崩，一分钟内暴跌20%，价格跌到900美元，随后又迅速反弹回1000美元以上。相比较而言Bstocks还算蛮稳了
这是一个很值得记录的案例：传统股票（哪怕是通过ADR和链上永续合约这种间接形式）的极端波动，第一次这么直接、这么快地传导进了加密原生的衍生品市场，而且传导速度远远超过传统市场自己的熔断机制反应速度
这提醒我们，链上永续合约这类产品，正在变成传统市场波动率外溢的一个新出口，流动性好、没有交易时段限制、杠杆高，波动会被放大后更快地释放出来
对交易链上永续合约的友仔：这类挂钩非美股票的合约，波动性可能比你想象的更极端，仓位管理要格外谨慎$SNDK $MU #美联储即将公布利率决议 Day 16 of breakeven | Current account: 106U
Additional earnings for creators: 8u
1. Today's Trading Practice Review
Today, trade $HIMS HIMS intraday short-term orders
Entry point: 25.14
Take-profit level: 26.20 | Stop-loss level: 24.6
Profit-loss ratio: 1:2.5
2. Insights on Position Management
In recent days, I have become increasingly aware of the core importance of position management. In the trading market, surviving for the long term is far more crucial than making a single windfall profit. This is especially suitable for traders who lack a standardized positioning system or struggle to control their profit-loss ratios. Here is a straightforward calculation for example:
Initial capital: 100U
Rule: Each opening occupies a fixed percentage of the current account net value, resulting in 5 consecutive losses.
1. 10% per trade position
After losing 5 consecutive trades, account net value: 100 × 0.9^5 = 59.049U
The principal has shrunk by 40.951U. To recoup the principal, it needs to earn about 69.35% of the current principal.
2. Single Position 2%
After losing 5 consecutive trades, account net value: 100 × 0.98^5 = 90.392U
The principal has only shrunk by 9.608U, and the return on investment is only about 10.63%.
With the same principal and five consecutive losses, the light position mode is much easier to recover after account drawdown. Heavy holdings multiply the break-even threshold, while light holdings can significantly extend the account's risk resistance survival cycle.
3. Self-summary
Given my current long break-even cycle and weak principal volume, keeping a light position and strictly controlling order opening frequency is the safest trading survival rule. First, protect your account and avoid consecutive losses that severely hurt you, so you have a chance to rely on stable compound interest to gradually achieve your break-even goal.🚨 PETER SCHIFF: A Fed rate hike followed by a gold rally would signal investors expect inflation-fighting efforts to force the Fed into reversing course. What keeps Changxin up for the US and Japan most is not its technology or production capacity, but that it has chosen a path different from Yangtze Memory's. Yangtze Memory is taking an aggressive technical approach, jumping directly to stacking above 232 layers, catching up very quickly, but this also leads to high costs and fluctuating yields. Changxin is more pragmatic, choosing to refine yield on mature processes, stabilize customers, and maximize production capacity. Once scale effects are unleashed, this approach will directly break through the price floor in the mid- and low-end market with cost-effectiveness. And the DRAM industry has always survived on scale.
What's even more intriguing is that this game has already extended into the U.S. domestic business ecosystem. Apple is desperately lobbying the White House, hoping to obtain approval to purchase Changxin's memory chips for iPhone and Mac sales in overseas markets. Apple's logic is simple: Micron's chips are too expensive, Changxin's performance has caught up, but the price is much cheaper. Global memory chip supply is tight, with prices quadrupling over the past year. Continuing to rely solely on Micron and Korean suppliers is impossible to keep costs down, and price hikes will offend consumers. But Micron desperately tried to stop it. The CEO directly warned the White House: if Changxin is allowed to enter the supply chain of American tech companies, no matter where its products are sold, it will, like when Chinese steel destroyed the U.S. steel industry, completely collapse the domestic memory chip industry. This is not business competition; this is the survival of the industry. Micron also holds two major cards: Changxin has been designated by the U.S. Department of Defense as a "Chinese military-industrial enterprise," and Yangtze Memory Technologies is still on the Entity List. Micron's meaning was blunt: if you give in now, you're just slapping yourself in the face.
So SK Hynix is doomed. It wasn't a big problem if it didn't get listed on the US stock market before, but now it's even worse if it does[Late-night Breakthrough] Countdown to Fed Decision:
Tonight's current trend is intriguing!
Tonight, it's not just about whether to raise interest rates—it's about how Walsh responds
Not a horror movie, but even more thrilling than a horror movie
The CME data is: 69.5% probability of no rate hike, 30.5% probability of a 25bp hike. On the surface, no interest rate hikes seem highly likely. But Bank of America poured cold water on it: since 1994, the Fed has never raised rates when the probability is below 60%—if it does tonight, it won't be a black swan, but a "bird never seen."
On the data side, a typical "left-right battle":
Consumer confidence at 90.8, worsening employment perception—this is a dovish card; the economy isn't that hot, so don't add more. Oil prices rebounded due to missile attacks—this is the hawkish card; inflation hasn't gone away yet, don't loosen up.
Both sides have their reasons, but what really troubles the market isn't the data—it's that Washe has already cut the "forward-looking guidance." In the past, the market could pick out certain fixed wording in a statement, but now it's gone. It's like tearing up the old map, and everyone has to relearn how to read the road.
First, fiscal constraints are real. U.S. national debt has reached $39.46 trillion, surpassing 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II. Every 1 percentage point increase in interest rates adds 360 billion yuan in annual interest expenses. This is not a question of whether the Fed should fight inflation, but whether the Treasury can accept it. The room for rate hikes is much narrower than the market expects.
Second, Walsh's "new framework" has yet to take shape. Cutting forward-looking guidance means he wants a more flexible, real-time data-driven decision-making model. But the market is accustomed to "certainty"—the more flexible you are, the more panicked the market becomes. So tonight, the most crucial thing isn't the interest rate figure, but the tone of the press conference—whether it's dovish "patience" or hawkish "vigilance," which is even more important than dot plots.
Third, the most likely scenario is: no interest rate hikes + two opposing votes + a neutral hawkish press conference. This approach neither creates the illusion of market "looseness" nor leaves room for the future. For BTC and ETH, if they really move forward, it's a short-term breather, but don't expect a major rebound—because "internal splits" themselves are a form of uncertainty.
Tonight, it's not about betting on direction, but about listening to the tone. Don't focus on the numbers, but at Wash's wording. He said "patience" and "vigilance," but what was missing was the water level for the coming quarter.
#美联储即将公布利率决议 If the Fed keeps rates unchanged (3.50%-3.75%), the impact on the crypto world will not be simply "positive" or "negative"; the core lies in a combination of "boots landing" + "hawkish rhetoric." The specific logic is as follows:
1. The resolution itself: Meets expectations, with limited short-term impact
The market already has a strong expectation of rates to remain unchanged—CME FedWatch shows about a 70% probability, and Polymarket forecasts the market is as high as 93%-94%. News that "meets expectations" usually does not trigger sharp one-sided rallies but is more likely to move sideways or with minor fluctuations.
2. The Real Key Variable: Walsh's "Hawkish Language"
There's a saying in the crypto world: "If you don't raise rates, you're raising rates"—if rates stay unchanged but you talk hawkishly, you can still suppress risk assets. The June meeting was a typical example: keeping rates unchanged, but hawkish stances caused both BTC and ETH to fall by 2%-5%.
The biggest variable this time is Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who, after abandoning "forward-looking guidance," cannot predict the market's intentions. If he takes a hawkish stance (such as hinting at future rate hikes), even if the convenience rate remains unchanged, the crypto sector could also come under pressure and decline.
3. BTC's "decoupling" phenomenon: FOMC impact is weakening
K33 Research points out that the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq index has fallen to its lowest point in years, and the FOMC decision may have a significantly lower price impact on BTC than historical cycle levels. BTC is currently trading independently in the $60,000–$70,000 range.
4. Historical Data: Most BTC declined after the FOMC meeting
Jiang Zhuo'er, founder of Lebit Mining Pool, pointed out that BTC has declined after the last eight FOMC meetings, including a 5.87% drop in July 2025, a 29.08% drop in October, a 33.55% drop in January 2026, and a 12.97% drop in June 2026.
5. If there is an unexpected rate hike: it is a direct negative factor
If the Fed unexpectedly raises rates by 25 basis points, it will push up already high U.S. Treasury yields, putting direct pressure on risk assets like BTC.
In summary: Keeping interest rates unchanged has limited impact on the crypto world; the real game lies in Walsh's wording and market expectations for the September meeting. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2:30 a.m. press conference after the 2 a.m. resolution announcement, as that is the real trigger for the market.
#美联储即将公布利率决议 $ETH Ethereum (ETH)
1. Core price data
Ethereum's current price is around $1890, with a 24-hour range of $1848–$1926, down slightly 1.53% intraday. The market has entered a wait-and-see phase ahead of the decision, with volume shrinking. In the past 30 days, ETH has rebounded more than 16% from its yearly low. Spot ETH ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive weeks, and institutional funds continue to buy on dips in the medium to long term, providing bottom support for the market.
2. Technical strength and weakness structure
Short-term key support: $1850 (recent low, market psychological defensive level); Short-term resistance: $1930–$1950.
The medium-term technical pattern remains within a bearish pattern where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. The medium- to long-term technical trend is under pressure, and the rebound is a liquidity recovery phase, with no major downward reversal yet to occur.
3. Market sentiment and capital
The Fear and Greed Index across the internet is at 29 (fear range), retail investors' trading willingness is low, and market funds generally reduce leverage and shrink positions, waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision; ETH is a high-beta risk asset, with significantly higher volatility than Bitcoin. Tonight's interest rate meeting will amplify the price fluctuations.
4. Fundamental hedging logic
Positive support: continued institutional inflows into US spot Ethereum ETFs, stable activity in the Layer2 ecosystem; Negative Pressure Suppression: In a high interest rate environment, DeFi lending demand is shrinking, high-yield US Treasuries are diverting risk funds, and macro liquidity is currently the core variable determining ETH's short-term direction.
2. The core background of the Fed's July FOMC meeting
1. Current status of basic policies
The current federal funds rate is 3.50%–3.75%, remaining unchanged since the end of 2025 after several consecutive meetings; This meeting will not release dot plots or economic forecast SEPs; the market's entire focus will be on the wording of the resolution statement + Chairman Walsh's press conference speech. Forward-looking guidance will dominate market fluctuations.
2. Three major market scenario probabilities (CME FedWatch futures pricing)
- Scenario 1 (Benchmark market, 70% probability): Rates unchanged, a hawkish press conference, emphasis on inflation risk, room for rate hikes in September (mainstream investment bank consensus)
- Scenario 2 (Optimistic market, within 30% probability): Rates remain unchanged, the press conference is dovish, indicating the tightening cycle is over and there are no rate hike plans this year
- Scenario 3 (Extreme Bearish, about 30% priced): Unexpectedly raise rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% (hedge funds like Citadel bet on black swans)
The market has completely eliminated rate cut expectations, with no pricing for rate cuts in 2026, and the earliest rate cut forecast postponed to 2027.
3. Core Contradictions in Federal Reserve Policy
June CPI fell short-term, but core PCE remained well above the 2% inflation target; Middle East geopolitical conflicts pushed crude oil prices above 100, bringing renewed imported inflationary pressure; At the same time, nonfarm payroll data weakened, signs of a recession emerged, and the Fed was caught in a dilemma, with policy statements deeply divided. The new chairman, Walsh, has a style that weakens forward-looking guidance, will not release policy signals in advance, greatly increasing the risk of this meeting exceeding expectations.
3. How Federal Reserve Policy Directly Affects ETH Price (Underlying Logic)
Crypto assets are highly volatile and risk assets, strongly negatively correlated with dollar liquidity and U.S. Treasury yields:
1. Hawkish/rate hikes → bearish for ETH: Rates remain high or may raise rates further, US Treasury yields rise, the dollar strengthens, funds are withdrawing from high-risk assets like crypto, and leverage is unwinding large-scale positions, causing ETH's decline to far outpace traditional US stocks.
2. Dovish Stability Maintenance → Positive for ETH: Expectations of stopping rate hikes and future easing have been released, market risk appetite is warming, institutional ETF funds are accelerating inflows, and ETH's elasticity has risen.
3. Neutral Hold: Short-term volatility, market trend dominated by press conference wording, without clear guidance, maintaining a 1850–1930 box range.
Compared to BTC, the ETH ecosystem is tied to DeFi and derivatives leverage, and the price fluctuations in the trading range are usually 30%-50% higher than Bitcoin's, with a very high risk of short-term liquidation after the decision.
4. Complete Prediction of Price Trends by Scenario
Scenario 1: Benchmark market (70% probability, interest rates unchanged + Walsh's hawkish speech)
1. Policy Details: No rate hikes, statements retaining further rate hike options, focusing on crude oil inflation risks, and clarifying the possibility of a rate hike in September.
2. ETH Short-Term Trend:
The initial surge in the resolution (digesting expectations of "no rate hikes") was briefly triggered, but the price plunged sharply midway through the conference;
If the short-term support at 1850 is breached, the downside target is $1800–$1760;
If the 1850 box holds, the consolidation range between 1850 and 1910 will show a rally and pullback throughout the day.
3. Logic Interpretation: The market has long priced in a "no rate hike." The real pricing core is the expectation of long-term rate hikes. Hawkish stance will push up U.S. Treasury yields, suppressing the rebound space for risk assets, ending the 30-day recovery cycle in the short term and returning to weak volatility.
Scenario 2: Optimistic market (25% probability, rates unchanged + dovish stance)
1. Policy Details: Acknowledging a temporary cooling of inflation, softening rhetoric about future rate hikes, no longer emphasizing tightening tendencies, and hinting that the high interest rate cycle is nearing its end.
2. ETH Short-Term Trend:
The price directly broke through the 1930 resistance level, with the first upside target between 1980 and 2000 USD;
If trading volume increases simultaneously, it will open up short-term rebound space above 2050, restoring medium-term bearish pressure from the death cross.
3. Logic Analysis: Expectations of loose liquidity are warming up, institutional funds are increasing spot ETF allocations, DeFi and on-chain speculative funds are flowing back, and high Beta attributes have driven ETH to significantly outperform the broader market.
Scenario 3: Extreme negative black swan (30% pricing probability, unexpected 25bp rate hike)
1. Policy Details: A direct 25 basis point rate hike, simultaneously signaling continued tightening ahead.
2. ETH Short-Term Trend: Sharp drop at the open, 1850 support instantly broken, first target $1720–$1700, extreme trend testing near 1650; The entire crypto market experienced a series of liquidations, with a 24-hour drop likely exceeding 8%-12%.
3. Logic Analysis: Completely exceeding mainstream market expectations, global liquidity tightening expectations repriced, all high-risk assets collectively sold off, leveraged funds stamped out, and a deep short-term correction began.High probability: No rate hike tonight, but a rate hike signal will be released
#美联储即将公布利率决议
┈➤ High probability of no rate hike tonight
╰✦ Market expectation is a high probability of keeping rates unchanged
CME interest rate futures products show that the market's expectation for a July rate hike has a 68.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged. See Figure 1.
The recent rise in rate hike expectations is due to tense US-Iran relations and rising oil prices. Polymarket's expectation for no rate hike in July has dropped from 96% to 75% in the past two days, but it still remains around 75%. See Figure 2.
These two products, the former being interest rate futures and the latter a prediction market, are both "voted" on by TradeFi traders using real money.
Especially CME interest rate futures, since mid-2023, the Fed's dot plot showed further hikes in the second half of the year, but CME interest rate futures indicated no more hikes, and indeed there were no hikes in the second half.
╰✦ Layoff trend
Recently, companies like Visa, Uber, ServiceNow, Disney, and Patreon have clearly announced upcoming layoffs, for example, Visa announced 2,600 layoffs, Uber announced 10% layoffs... (Information confirmed by Grok+GPT)
If large companies are like this, what about small companies?
The current corporate layoff trend is influenced by AI replacing human labor combined with economic trends. Although rate cuts cannot solve the AI replacement issue, rate hikes still need to be carefully considered.
Therefore, the market's expectation for a rate hike in September is relatively high, including CME interest rate futures and Polymarket predictions.
┈➤ Releasing rate hike expectations
The Fed will most likely release rate hike expectations.
Brother Feng has analyzed this issue more than once: rate hikes cannot solve inflation caused by rising oil prices.
However, inflation caused by rising oil prices triggers expectations and demand for wage increases. Once wages rise, it further pushes up corporate costs, which then causes prices of goods and services to rise.
The role of rate hike expectations is to suppress wage increase expectations in this "wage-inflation" spiral, thereby curbing the "wage-inflation" spiral.
┈➤ Final notes on layoff trends: on one hand, they reduce the sufficiency for Fed rate hikes. On the other hand, with layoffs ongoing, Americans' demand and desire for wage increases will also decline, reducing the "wage-inflation" spiral trend, which in turn reduces the necessity for Fed rate hikes.
This is quite an interesting logic.
Combined with market expectations, there is a high probability of no rate hike tonight.
Since the FOMC meetings occur roughly every one and a half months, there is no meeting in August, making it a monetary policy gap month. The latter half of the month may start to price in a September rate hike. The first half of the month may not be very quiet; crypto mainly watches the Senate full vote on that clear bill.
As for September, if inflation issues are severe in September or Q4, the Fed may hike rates once to better exert this suppressive effect.
But a single rate hike is not a continuous rate hike cycle, so market panic and liquidity expectations may be relatively limited.
Of course, the key concern is if the September dot plot releases a more hawkish signal.财政资金注入加速AI基础设施向光连接切换，算力硬件链的风险偏好获得重新定价。$GFS获得3亿美元芯片法案资金推进CPO与硅光子研发，带动激光供应链标的$XLITE的多头预期。若铜线传输瓶颈倒逼AI服务器换代，算力溢出资金将加速向光连接节点扩散。观察指标为法案补贴拨付进度及光连接商业化落地速度。
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 #英伟达、谷歌为AI数据中心债务提供巨额担保 #摩根士丹利推出ETH和SOL的现货ETPToday's market was quite divided—$SNDK -6.5%. Semiconductors are bleeding like a river, $QQQ is also bearish, but $BTC $ETH managed to hold firm and push upward. Don't rush to call the cow, $IBIT has already become a traitor.
Look at the numbers
$BTC 64,206 +1.80% $ETH 1,904 +1.98%
$QQQ -0.97% $SPY +0.24% $IBIT -1.71%
$DXY +0.01% $GLD -1.40%
Talking about the situation: Hormuz is still causing trouble, and crude oil is stuck on inflation expectations; US Treasuries and the Fed continue to suppress valuations, and the exchange rate line is not a backdrop; $DXY a slight stiffening move can push risk assets back.
Now, let's talk about the market: $ETH is actually more elastic than $BTC, with some betting on a recovery in risk appetite; $QQQ Not enough, and money is still shrinking toward defense; $IBIT Weaker than spot prices, ETFs have softened, and this divergence looks rather weak; $DXY Holding firm without falling is the greatest unfriendly to risk assets; $GLD dropped more than a point, with risk aversion cooling down, but it didn't see money and quickly rushed back into the crypto world.
Don't chase highs; whoever shows weakness first at this position should set the direction and wait for a clear signal to beat.
#美联储即将公布利率决议Last hour before the FOMC: Three official documents come from three different dates and cannot be pieced together as a pre-decision
OKX Planet is currently focused on the July FOMC, and the Federal Reserve's official schedule shows that the statement for the July 28-29 meeting will be released at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on July 29, which converts to 2:00 AM Macau time on July 30; the press conference will start half an hour later. The official statement has not yet appeared on the Federal Reserve's website, so any interest rate direction, voting list, or policy wording is not yet confirmed fact.
The three official documents currently available come from different dates. The first is the June 17 statement, which records the target range, economic description, voting, and implementation decisions of the last meeting. The second is the June meeting minutes released on July 8, which supplement the discussions of participants at that time but still pertain to the June meeting. The third is the monetary policy report submitted to Congress on July 10, summarizing inflation, labor market, economic activity, and financial conditions up to that time. All three provide a baseline but cannot be pieced together as the conclusion of a vote already taken on July 29.
When the decision is released, the statement should be read first, then the implementation note. The statement answers policy choices, risk descriptions, and voting; the implementation note explains how the reserve rate, open market operations, and related tools are executed. Even if the policy rate remains unchanged, technical adjustments to implementation tools may still occur; conversely, market price fluctuations before the statement do not mean the statement content has leaked. Automated content must be based on the timestamp and original text on the Federal Reserve's page, not supplemented by community screenshots.
This official schedule does not indicate a new Summary of Economic Projections, so the June dot plot or charts in the July monetary policy report should not be called "the new dot plot" for this meeting. Conditional sentences in the press conference should also retain their original meaning, for example, when the chair discusses how future data may affect policy, which is a reaction function rather than a commitment for the next meeting. Only the official statement can confirm the decision made; the press conference is for explanation and should not be reversed.
The voting list must also wait for the official statement. Pre-meeting official speeches, media interviews, and market pricing cannot confirm who supports the final decision; even if members publicly express preferences, the data and discussions during the meeting may change judgments. The final draft will be checked word-for-word for the target range, balance sheet implementation arrangements, economic description, and names of dissenters. If the official page has not yet uploaded the complete document, it is better to delay rather than fill in with secondhand summaries.
Observations on BTC, ETH, the US dollar, and US Treasuries will follow the same timeline: before 2:00 AM is pre-decision trading, after 2:00 AM is statement reaction, and after 2:30 AM is the second wave of volatility brought by the press conference. Prices can reflect expectation gaps, liquidity, and leverage but cannot inversely prove any policy wording. This article will expire immediately after the statement release window; the final draft only uses the official statement, implementation note, and press conference data from this meeting and does not disguise June documents or market probabilities as the July decision.$SNDK $MU Brothers, MU dropped over 5% in 24 hours, and just now it dropped a 772 ultra-deep needle during trading! Fortunately, it quickly pulled back near 850. Considering the large players' sale of $7 million in PUT options and short positions closing interest, panic and sell-off have been phased out. In the short term, I expect an oversold rebound and recovery!
Although major players took profits and closed the market, the 4-hour and daily moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with the trapped positions above extremely heavy. On the data side, the ratio of large holders to long positions is as high as 80%, with leveraged bulls all crowded together, and the main players could take advantage of the situation to push for a second bottom and surge into the bull market at any moment.$CORE DAO is once again pushing the narrative that 90% of Bitcoin's total hash rate is participating in network delegation. It sounds impressive, but the reality deserves a closer look.
The effective delegated hash rate visible on-chain is estimated to be closer to 35% of Bitcoin's total network. The widely shared 90% figure mainly reflects mining pool support, not actual hash power securing the $CORE chain.
Hash rate delegation doesn't redirect Bitcoin's mining power or provide security to Core. It's essentially a signalling mechanism that allows miners to qualify for $CORE token rewards.
The timing is also worth noting. Major ecosystem promises like SatPay, B14G, and ecosystem buybacks have yet to deliver meaningful results. Instead, attention has shifted back to technical narratives while concerns remain over token unlocks, inflationary selling pressure, and alleged wash trading.
Compared with BTCFi competitors such as Babylon, $Core still trails in key areas including $BTC staking, institutional participation, and overall on-chain activity. A strong narrative alone cannot replace sustainable ecosystem growth.
Always verify the data behind bold claims. Narratives can drive attention, but fundamentals matter more over the long term.
This post is for discussion purposes only and is not financial advice.
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