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$XRP
XRP has dropped more than 2%, so why can't the payment narrative directly support it?
Spot price fell about 2.39% in 24 hours, ranging from 1.2893 to 1.3534, with the price positioned at about 25% of the range.
For settlement business growth to translate into token demand, a clear transmission mechanism is needed. Price decline does not mean the business is failing, but the business vision cannot explain all pullbacks, nor can partnership headlines be directly counted as income for token holders.
If the upper boundary is reclaimed and held after turnover, short-term support will improve; if the lower boundary continues to be lost, the weak structure should be respected first. A true fundamental revaluation requires verifiable sustained usage.$ETH's $2400 is not just a price threshold
After BTC fell below $80,000 and quickly recovered near $82,000, ETH's situation deserves closer attention. The price once dipped near $2400, while the funding side faced triple pressure: spot ETF net outflows consecutively, about $129.5 million on October 14 and about $60.3 million on the 15th; ETH reserves on exchanges increased by about 290,000 coins in the past three weeks, estimated at about $696 million at $2400 each; leverage side 24-hour liquidations were about $283 million, and the open interest contract USD value dropped about 11%, but the ETH quantity did not decrease significantly in sync, indicating some risks have not been fully released.
This does not mean ETH will necessarily continue to fall, but the quality of the rebound depends on whether the funds cooperate. The next three signals are most critical: whether $2400 can hold; whether ETF net outflows can stop; whether exchange reserves continue to rise. If the price rebounds but ETF still loses funds and reserves continue to increase, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable; only if outflows slow and spot buying improves does ETH have a more reliable basis for an upward move.
What ETH lacks is not a long-term narrative, but short-term funds to absorb selling pressure. A drop does not mean cheap; the key is whether funds are willing to keep buying after the drop. $BTC just finished defending $80,000, and ETH's $2400 may become the next focal point of the bulls and bears battle.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 This weekend, stop using Friday's ETF funds to guarantee Saturday's market.
According to Farside records, on October 16, the US BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of $82.4 million. After entering the weekend, the ETF secondary market's regular trading is closed, but crypto spot trading continues. The timing on both sides is different, so Friday's data cannot explain the sudden buying and selling over the weekend.
At this time, even if you see a large address buying, you cannot casually infer that "institutional funds are all absorbing." One participant willing to buy means other sellers might be willing to sell at the same price. What needs to be observed is whether the price can stabilize after buying and whether there is continuous trading afterward.
I think the easiest misjudgment on weekends is to prematurely declare a reversal of fund sentiment based on a small rebound. When used to watching ETF inflows and outflows regularly, it's easy to treat them as real-time directional signals. But fund statistics have their own update rhythm; actual transactions do not wait for reports.
Weekend price changes can provide clues, but don't prematurely speak for next week's buyers. Whether the price can recover after a pullback, and whether ETF subscriptions and redemptions support that recovery after the US stock market reopens, all need continued observation. Especially, don't force yourself to endure volatility you originally didn't want just because of a statement like "whales are absorbing." Whether 80,000 USD can hold, I currently don't have enough evidence to give a definite answer.
#ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ 同一份ETF数据，5日口径是"流出收窄"，单日口径却是"流出放大"。两个结论都对，问题在于它们回答的不是同一个问题。 先说新闻。用今天的数据演示：美国现货ETF 5日累计净流出4.288亿美元（上一周期是6.968亿，明显收窄），而最新单日净流出2.632亿美元；10日累计净流出5.669亿。同期，BTC报82,116.6美元，24小时 -0.36%、近一周 -0.91%，20日区间79,775.1到87,238.3；恐惧贪婪指数从53回升到63；美元指数102.08、黄金4,172.7、标普500 7,744.06。 再看资金影响。三个口径对应三种问题：5日总量回答"方向"（这一周资金是净流出还是净流入），单日数据回答"速度"（流出在加速还是减速），10日数据回答"趋势"（这是短期波动还是中期转变）。很多看似矛盾的观点，其实只是用了不同口径回答同一个问题。把口径写在结论前面，可以避免大部分误判。 对BTC的含义：按今天的口径，"方向"仍是净流出，"速度"转差，"趋势"仍在流出。也就是说：资金面没有改善，只是流出的日均强度低于前一周。这种状态下的价格反弹通常缺乏持续性，除非单日口径连续Comprehensive headline #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Look, the first half "growth may slow" has already been fully priced in by the stock price: closed at $70.53 on October 16, down 2.86% in one day, about 43.5% retracement from the 52-week high of $124.86, only 8.4% above the low of $65.08; after the Q2 earnings report, it once plunged about 9% in one day and hit the year's low, with a P/E ratio of about 21.5 times, reflecting deep pessimistic expectations.
The second half "advertising becomes a new highlight" is still an option: advertising accounts for only about 6% of revenue and needs continuous realization to be revalued; the consensus target price is $91.39, implying about 29.6% upside, but the range is $57–$135, showing huge divergence. Therefore, the stock price is at a "bottom visible but reversal not yet arrived": a downward biased slow decline, with $65 possibly being repeatedly tested.
Upside depends on advertising realization; the earnings report on October 20 regarding viewing time and advertising pace is a short-term decision point.Brothers and sisters
The BTC derivatives market shorts are aggressively increasing their positions, but this signal does not necessarily mean the market will directly decline!
BTC perpetual funding rates have rapidly dropped, reaching deep negative territory not seen since June this year.
Behind the data is the current contract market's short-selling willingness far exceeding the longs.
An interesting divergence phenomenon: the price of BTC rebounds from a low and rises, but the funding rate falls to an extremely low negative value. The price goes up, yet many traders continue to build short positions. This contrast deserves close attention.
Once short positions accumulate excessively, as long as the coin price continues to rise, it will trigger a chain reaction: shorts hit stop losses, are passively bought back to close positions, further pushing up the price, causing more shorts to be forcibly liquidated—this is what is commonly called a short squeeze.
But it should be viewed rationally; a deep negative funding rate does not necessarily mean a short squeeze will occur. Arbitrage operations and hedging positions can also cause such data changes.
Key points to observe going forward: if BTC continues to strengthen, total open interest declines, and funding rates gradually recover, it means shorts are exiting the market.
Healthy rallies do not require everyone to be bullish. Sometimes, clustered shorts can actually become a driving force for the market. Do you think these concentrated shorts entering the market will ultimately profit?
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Where is BTC headed next? The bulls are quietly adding positions, and my long positions remain unchanged
Yesterday, I predicted a rise after the bearish news was fully absorbed, but it first dropped to 79,800 before pulling back to 82,600, which was quite frustrating.
Compared to yesterday, the bullish strength is increasing:
Long position liquidations below: 1.5 billion → 2 billion
Short position liquidations above: 2.5 billion → 1.2 billion
Keep an eye on these prices:
81,500: First dense zone, breaking it triggers forced liquidation
80,000: Buffer thinning, prone to chain liquidations
83,000: First cluster of short positions above
83,800: The fiercest squeeze on the breakout
Scenario analysis:
Downside: Break 81,500 → 80,000 long position zone, thin buffer, chain forced liquidations
Upside: Hold above 83,000 → 83,800 → 84,500
My view: The bearish news is mostly digested, data favors the bulls, leaning bullish. No further explanation, my longs remain.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC ETH hasn't reclaimed 2500, and the bulls on board are almost full
As of noon Beijing time, ETH is around 2427, with OKX 24-hour highs at 2493.89 and lows at 2393.33. The price hasn't even closed above 2500, yet the contract side is heating up first.
Binance long accounts hold 74.61%, Bybit 71.82%, with funding rates on both sides at 0.005251% and 0.006156%, respectively, both still positive. This indicates most accounts are betting on a rebound, but one detail can't be ignored: this counts the number of accounts, not the position size.
Looking at active buying, Binance's buy ratio is only 50.4%, Bybit even lower than 50%. Simply put, many bulls don't equal strong real money.
Currently, ETH is stuck between two liquidation zones: long risks pile up near 2397 below, shorts are pressured near 2501 above. My judgment is clear: no chasing before a volume-backed close above 2500; if it breaks below 2393 first, crowded longs may get flushed out. Only after firmly standing above 2500 will I consider following.
The biggest fear in a rebound is never that no one is bullish, but that the market hasn't confirmed yet while the bus is already full.
$ETH #OKX星球话题来啦 #星球日报 This whale's operation is very informative: it continues to add positions while in a floating loss state, but the asset it is adding (ONDO) is precisely the one with the most concentrated fundamental risk among the three.
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📍 First, let's look at the panorama: the whale's current real profit and loss
Token Holding Amount Cost Price Current Price (10/17) Floating P/L
UNI 1,014,000 $8.79 $7.39 About -$1.42 million
ONDO 2,455,000 $0.4662 About 0.45 Slight loss or break-even
LTC 12,400 $67.86 $63.45 About -$55,000
UNI is the absolute heavy holding and also the absolute disaster zone — 1,014,000 tokens at a cost of $8.91 million, current price $7.49 million, just this one alone has a floating loss close to $1.55 million, with the vast majority contributed by UNI. The ONDO add-on has not changed the overall profile of this address: “deep UNI lock-up, slight LTC loss, slight ONDO loss.”
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🎯 The core contradiction of ONDO: the whale is buying, but the unlocking sword is already hanging overhead
The whale's cost $0.4662 is near the current price level, with almost no safety margin. ONDO's current price is repeatedly testing the 0.45 range, $0.42 is a short-term key support; if broken, the next support is at $0.40, then the trendline area at 0.37. The daily RSI is about 42, MACD momentum is weakening, and technically it does not support the narrative of an "immediate reversal." When did MEME coins on SOL start becoming difficult to trade? I think there are two key points:
1. pumpfun no longer relies on Raydium and created its own exchange. Newly launched coin pools stay on their own DEX, trying to capture all the profits. This year Raydium also jointly launched a launchpad, increasing the number of launch projects, making it harder for retail investors to operate.
2. Creator fees were added. Previously, playing MEME basically had no taxes or fees, and the project teams couldn't interfere with trading, making trading very pure. Now various transaction taxes keep emerging, and after the project teams sell their coins, they can still continuously collect fees, greatly diminishing the trading experience.
I really miss the atmosphere of playing MEME on SOL two years ago, when all you needed to watch were the narrative, volume, and K-line.$BTC BTC short-term holders' positions have risen to 4.08 million coins. On the market front, the Fed's rate hike expectations for October have fallen to about 17%, leading to a recovery in risk appetite. Fed Chair Powell made no prior commitments regarding October or December policies; trading prices indicate the market prefers to wait for more economic data.
However, inflation pressure remains: CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, PPI year-on-year at 6.3%. The Fed is merely postponing rate hikes, so inflation victory is not guaranteed, and the market tends to overlook the potential tightening risk in December.
For BTC, the downward trend in rate hike probability brings valuation recovery but is unlikely to generate sustained buying. If oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, or inflation expectations rebound, rate hike expectations could quickly rise again.
Going forward, the focus should not only be on the October meeting but also closely monitor December rate pricing. Near-term expectations are easing while long-term remain hawkish, so assets will continue to fluctuate. It is possible to trade on this round of expectation recovery, but positions must reserve tolerance for data reversals.
#Bitcoin #FedOctoberRateHikeProbabilityDropsToAbout17%
Main adjustments: compressed repetitive expressions, streamlined the logic of "expectation recovery — inflation risk — BTC impact — subsequent observation," and highlighted "potential December tightening risk" and "position tolerance" more prominently.$TIA's gain yesterday was quite impressive, but a one-day increase only indicates short-term capital concentration and does not mean that the long-term supply and demand have changed. Ajian does not believe that the entire modular blockchain sector has regained long-term capital. The same applies to $EIGEN; yesterday's rise seems more like a spread from meme to infrastructure assets and is not enough to be called a sector rebound. If the market truly prefers infrastructure again1. The necessity of the SpaceX and Tesla merger is whether the two companies can reduce the cost of orbital data centers through integration. Whether SpaceX's orbital data center and related business model can succeed ultimately comes down to an economic calculation. Analyst Wood Mackenzie estimates that currently, building a 1GW orbital data center costs about $170 billion, more than three times that of an equivalent-scale ground data center, with satellite and launch costs accounting for about 60%. Regardless of how many advantages orbital computing has in terms of energy, land, and grid constraints, as long as the unit computing power cost is significantly higher than ground solutions in the long term, large-scale commercialization will be difficult. So the question becomes: for producing the same unit of effective computing power, when can the full lifecycle cost of orbital deployment approach or even fall below that of ground deployment? 2. The current roadmap provided by SpaceX can be summarized in three points: reducing launch costs, improving the performance-to-power ratio of chips, and turning satellites and computing equipment into large-scale industrial products through vertical integration. Tesla happens to have the other half of the capabilities that SpaceX lacks here. In November 2025, Musk mentioned Tesla's AI5 chip in a conversation with Ron Baron. AI5 is mainly aimed at autonomous driving and Optimus inference tasks, and Musk's goal at the time was to achieve two to three times the performance per watt of Nvidia chips in these tasks #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Where is the highlight?US Stock Real Trading 11
As of 0:00 yesterday, QQQ dropped 1.56%, while I rose 0.16%. This week, the US stock market fell 5.52%, and I gained 2.79%, outperforming the market by over 8 points. Overall, this week has been quite good.
It's indeed not easy to make money in a bear market. The current market conditions are not suitable for being overly long. You can also refer to my position allocation: (only trading account, excluding savings) Eli Lilly 16.5%, Coca-Cola 16.5%, SK Hynix (short) 16.5%, S&P 33%, U33%. I even sold off TSMC, planning to buy it back when it drops to a better level. Overall, this is a very conservative approach. It's a pity about Eli Lilly and Coca-Cola because of historical reasons (you can refer to my US Stock Real Trading Issue 6 post), which led to very low positions previously. I didn't plan to adjust the positions later, so these two stocks rose 10 points this week, and I missed out. I only added to the positions at 7 PM last night, missing out on a lot.
That's about it overall. Have a great weekend everyone! Bro, the direction this wave took was right, but now is the profit protection phase, not the excitement phase. Unrealized gains are not profits; only closing the position counts.
Coin Entry Price Current Price ROI Key Levels/Suggestions
BTC 81744.3 81666.49 +1.90% Just broke even, signal significance outweighs the amount; move stop loss slightly above 81750–81850, partial profit-taking if it breaks below 80,500, target 80,000
ETH 2449.21 2422.83 +21.57% Strongest position, but 2400 is only about 0.95% from current price; suggest partial profit-taking near 2400, move stop loss above entry price, hold remaining position to target 2380/2350
DOGE 0.08131 0.08075 +13.73% Move stop loss slightly above 0.0813; partial profit-taking between 0.0795–0.078, don’t wait to sell all at 0.078
Total unrealized gains about 18.86U, all three positions short in the same direction with high correlation, diversification is false diversification, one rebound will cause simultaneous pullback. The three most important things to do now:
1. Move all stop losses to break-even: BTC just turned positive, easiest to get stopped out by a sudden spike; ETH/DOGE have profits, at least move stop loss slightly above entry price.
2. Take profits in batches, don’t be greedy for the last bit: ETH at 2400, DOGE at 0.0795–0.078, BTC at 80,500–80, $TIA has surged crazily these past two days
It rose 23% in a single day and accumulated 83% over four weeks. Among altcoins, it is the brightest star
The actual data stored on the Celestia network hasn't kept up. On October 16, the blob size was 2.01 billion bytes, less than 2.05 billion on the 15th
What’s really moving is leverage; $TIA futures open interest rose 55% in 24 hours, faster than the price increase
The volume forced buy-in by shorts is very small, under $2 million per token
In other words, the buying pressure from short squeezes is limited; newly opened futures bets are the main driver of the surge in open interest
⚠️⚠️⚠️ Altcoins now account for more than Bitcoin in open interest, reaching 41.4%
A similar crossover occurred in December 2024, after which altcoins dropped 44.3% in 90 days‼️❕
Price is running ahead of data, leverage is running ahead of price. This structure feels great when rising but turns quickly at the turning point
#TIA1. Your liquidation strategy (concise Chinese version)
ETH and SOL are both fully leveraged 50x long positions, sharing margin and compounding risk. Plan:
1. If there is a rebound, handle ETH first — it has the heaviest loss; reduce in batches near the entry price to relieve the greatest pressure first.
2. For SOL, wait for the rebound to approach the entry price before gradually reducing.
3. If the market continues to fall unilaterally, do not stubbornly hold — prioritize closing ETH to reduce the overall long exposure of the account.
Reflection: Multiple coins in the same direction + 50x full leverage concentrates risk highly; reversals cause fast and sharp drawdowns. Avoid heavy same-direction multi-coin positions in the future, lower leverage, and keep risk within an acceptable range.
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2. Considering recent macro conditions: your "priority to reduce ETH" logic is supported in the current environment, but pay attention to timing
September CPI year-on-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%), PPI year-on-year 6.3% (far exceeding expectations, highest since December 2022), core CPI month-on-month steady at 0.3% for two consecutive months. The probability of a rate hike before year-end once approached 90%; after CPI, the October rate hike probability jumped from about 20% to around 50%, then fell back to about 30%, but the December rate hike pricing remains "firmly locked in." In the dot plot, 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more rate hike this year; none expect a rate cut.
This means for your positions: high interest rates will be maintained longer → risk assets (including ETH, SOL$DOGE #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
$BTC #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
$ETH #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Those hoarding Dogecoin hoping to get rich quick are "fools."
From the perspective of data and market capitalization, it's almost impossible for Dogecoin to rise to 8 dollars, at least under the current token mechanism and market scale, which is an extremely low-probability event.
In other words, even if it rises to 1 dollar, the market cap would have to exceed 150 billion dollars; to reach 8 dollars, a massive amount of global funds would need to continuously flow in and be locked in DOGE for the long term. Meanwhile, DOGE has no yield, no interest, no scarcity cap, and is continuously issued every year, so holders have no natural incentive to lock their coins long-term.
Currently, more optimistic analyses believe DOGE could reach 0.30-1 dollar in a strong bull market, with only a very few extremely optimistic views mentioning higher targets. But 8 dollars is not within the mainstream analysis framework and is more like a "dream price" in community sentiment. #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Looking at BTC, not just BTC
The more uncertain the market, the more Bitcoin dominance acts like a sentiment thermometer. When risk appetite contracts, funds tend to flow first to the most liquid and widely agreed-upon asset, making BTC a temporary safe haven, while altcoins face more obvious selling pressure.
But note: BTC stabilizing does not mean the entire market is safe. If BTC holds steady sideways but altcoins continue to weaken, it looks more like funds are clustering defensively rather than broadly returning to risk-taking. At this time, the market prefers "relative safety," not "full-on offense."
True recovery is not just about BTC's strength but whether that strength can spill over. Improvements in altcoin trading volume, on-chain activity, sector rotation, and whether the total market cap can rise as dominance falls are the real signs of diffusion.
So, in the short term, use BTC dominance to read sentiment; in the long term, use capital diffusion to verify recovery. Don't mistake BTC's stability for a springtime for the entire market. $BTC
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 123The current market situation is like fire and ice! Big Brother Maji's hedge position worth 50 million has been disclosed, with both long and short layouts, and the account profits show extreme divergence. The scene of large investors' long-term game is very shocking.
Detailed breakdown of three sets of positions
① BTC short｜40x full position
Holding -243.96 BTC, position market value 20,039,500 U
Entry price 84070.0
Unrealized profit 470,700 U, funding fee income 68,400 U
Margin 501,000 U, liquidation price 104583.12
This position continuously brings positive returns and is the safety base of the entire hedge portfolio.
② ETH long｜25x full position
Holding 7223.81 ETH, position market value 17,736,600 U
Entry price 2500.18
Unrealized loss 324,300 U, funding fee expense 21,200 U
Margin 709,500 U, liquidation price 1672.24
Slight pullback is still within controllable range, a normal fluctuation within the hedge portfolio.
③ HYPE short｜5x full position
Holding -268,300 HYPE, position market value 21,952,000 U
Entry price 66.2399
Unrealized loss 4,179,800 U, funding fee income 1,047,000 U
Margin 4,390,400 U, liquidation price 100.6
This is also the biggest pressure item in the entire portfolio, with deep unrealized losses dragging down overall account performance.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ To add a bit more, the fundamentals of $STRK, $PYTH, and $ZRO have all been pretty good recently. Ajian's homepage has some analysis on this, but the simultaneous drop today indicates that altcoin liquidity remains fragile. This isn't an issue with any single project; when funds withdraw from high-volatility assets, prices quickly lose support. This precisely shows that the market currently favors selective trading rather than a systemic altcoin rebound. Ordinary traders can take this opportunity to judge whether they should continue to increase their positions in the entire altcoin market Last night, watching ETH's fake breakout at 2500, I actually felt a jolt in my heart. Have you ever had that feeling where you know you should be excited, but your body preemptively reduces your position? In the afternoon, ETH tried 2500 once, but was pushed back decisively. When the US stock market opened in the evening, it slid down further along with the stock index. But honestly, this round of crypto decline is relatively mild; at least there was no panic selling. BTC closed near 79,000 the day before yesterday, moving so fast that it made me wonder if the market has already priced in the bad news. What I care about now is not whether it falls or not, but that the capital preference has changed. In the past, at times like this, money would flee to BTC and ETH, while altcoins would bleed heavily. This time? BTC and ETH are indeed relatively resistant to the drop, but altcoins haven't experienced a complete collapse either. What does this indicate? It means that funds in the market haven't massively withdrawn; they're just repositioning. Some people choose to wait and see, some are still betting on a rebound, and some are already tired, with narrative fatigue clearly evident. The FOMO sentiment is almost invisible, replaced by hesitation and numbness. This emotional structure is actually quite subtle. Bulls don't dare to chase, bears don't dare to heavily short; everyone is waiting for a clearer signal. The bullish logic is this: if the US stock market is just undergoing a normal correction and crypto has already had a round of decline in advance, then ETH reclaiming 2500 is only a matter of time, which will trigger a wave of catch-up buying sentiment, and altcoins will also get a breather. But the risk is also clear: if the US stock market adjustment has just begun#BarclaysScenarioOfSpaceXAcquiringTesla
Those analysts at Barclays wrote a whole script, saying SpaceX is going to acquire Tesla.
It reads like it's real. They say the announcement could come as soon as before December 6, with 1 Tesla share exchanged for 0.7 SpaceX shares. If it really happens, Musk's voting power could reach 56%, giving him absolute control. What's the point? To tie AI, robotics, energy, and rockets all into one powerhouse.
But I have to pour cold water on this for you guys. This is purely analysts crunching numbers in their office, no official board resolutions, no formal negotiations—don't take it as gospel.
What does it have to do with us?
First, if these two trillion-dollar giants really merge, all the money will concentrate into this super platform. For us in crypto, a high-volatility asset class, the short-term liquidity available will be even less.
Second, the core of the merger is about AI, energy, and aerospace. The demand for computing hardware will still rise, so miners' costs won't go down at all. Those small crypto projects just riding the AI hype with whitepapers won't stand a chance against the giants.
My view is simple.
Capital markets love stories. When reports like this come out, it's most likely to hype up the upcoming market moves. Let's just watch the show and definitely don't chase those random "merger concept" pump-and-dump coins—they'll leave you holding the bag. Just wait patiently for the macro data.
What do you think? $BTC $ETH 20261017
3. The number of wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC has risen to 20,338, reaching a historic high
1. Large holders are buying, while others are desperately selling; both directions are happening simultaneously
2. Santiment: These wallets (holding 10-10,000 BTC) usually turn before the price does, so they are firm and typically a bottom signal. The price oscillates back and forth in the middle, but they haven't left. Short term may continue to fall
3. The futures market has turned; BTC funding rates on Binance have dropped below zero: most are shorting, expecting a drop; the last time it was this pessimistic was in June, when BTC was at 62,000, and money was also flowing out
4. US BTC spot net inflows were 3.5 billion and 2.6 billion in August and September respectively, with about 540 million net outflow in the first two weeks of October
5. The turning point is inflation data, hotter than expected, raising the probability of rate hikes
6. Key levels:
Downside: 80,000 has the largest buy wall, below that is 78,000
Upside: 80,000 is the cost basis for buyers over 8 to 12 months and also the level where shorts will be squeezed
Only when the daily closes above 88,000+, combined with ETF inflows, can it be said that someone is really stepping in
7. If the price retests 80,000, watch if the wallet number continues to rise; large holders buying at low prices is a bullish signal
8. Large holders have hit a new high, shorts are also heavily stacked; historically, these two often happen simultaneously, then each goes their own wayThe market has been quite twisted recently: On the crude oil side, risks in Middle East transportation have heated up, and with U.S. crude oil inventories dropping by 8.6 million barrels in one week, supply expectations suddenly tightened, pushing oil prices up. However, the price surge driven by this geopolitical conflict has a significant emotional component; once the situation eases, the pullback will be quick, so be cautious about chasing highs.
On the crypto side, after a big drop, it's slowly recovering. BTC was pulled back after falling below 80,000, indicating buyers are stepping in at that level, but with CPI and PPI continuously running hot, inflation pressure remains, and the Fed's stance can stir risk assets at any time. The 80,000 level will see repeated battles, and the 83,000 mark is the threshold for a rebound; don’t rush to call a reversal before a volume breakout.
ETH is weaker; first watch if 2,400 can hold, and if it can’t reclaim 2,500, it can’t be considered strong. Plus, spot ETF funds are still flowing out, so whether the rebound has momentum needs a few more days to observe. Overall: crude oil is strong but with emotional overtones, crypto is in recovery but don’t be too optimistic.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Tesla released the new generation Roadster last night, demonstrating short-distance flight and aerial attitude adjustment on site using cold air thrusters. Musk said this was developed in collaboration with SpaceX and is expected to enter mass production in 2028. The news initially drove the stock price up by 4.62%, then it gave back gains and turned down by 1.16%. The rise and fall of $TSLA itself is the market repricing this story. What really matters is not the car, but the timing. This car was unveiled in 2017, originally planned for production in 2020, but has been repeatedly delayed until now. Whether the market believes the new 2028 timeline is another matter. The flight feature sounds cool, but regulatory frameworks for flying cars on roads are not ready in any country, and the difficulty of implementation is greater than the technology itself. The stock price rising then falling indicates the market is doing the math. The Roadster is a plus, but Tesla’s real problem now is fundamentals: Q3 deliveries fell 2.1% year-over-year, automotive business profit margins are under pressure, and Robotaxi commercialization is still in progress. Relying on a repeatedly delayed sports car cannot support anxiety over the core business. For $BTC, this matter is not direct. Tesla and SpaceX represent AI and high-end manufacturing directions; the bigger the hype, the greater the imagination space for tech stocks, and risk appetite may warm up accordingly. But Tesla rising does not mean $BTC rises; their logics differ. $BTC is currently fluctuating around 82,000, with resistance from 83,500 to 84,500 and support from 81,500 to 82,000. Truly#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) have increased their holdings to 4.08 million coins.
Definition of STH: addresses holding for less than 155 days. This group is the most price-sensitive in the market—they tend to chase when prices rise and sell quickly when prices fall.
Currently at 4.08 million coins, this is below the peak levels of 2021 and even lower than in 2017.
Historical pattern: every bull market price peak often coincides with the exhaustion of STH buying momentum. The more STH there are, the more new buyers there are to take over; once this group's buying power is depleted, prices tend to stop rising.
From this perspective, 4.08 million coins are still some distance from the historical peak signal range—this is a somewhat optimistic interpretation.
But there is a key variable now:
Many of these 4.08 million STH accumulated their positions during BTC's decline from the $126,198 high— their cost basis ranges between $80,000 and $100,000.
The good news: September data shows the STH-SOPR 30-day moving average has returned to 1.01, surpassing the breakeven line for the first time in over a year, indicating reduced pressure from loss-cutting in short-term sell-offs.
The bad news: BTC is currently around $81,000, right in the cost pressure zone for many STH. If the market declines, this group is the most likely to stop-loss, which could easily trigger a chain reaction in price.
With STH increasing to 4.08 million, what’s your take—are new funds stepping in to take over, or is smart money waiting to exit?The most interesting contrast about BTC today: more people are long, yet contract funds are net outflow.
No guessing price direction today, let's analyze leverage and fund structure.
▍Positions remain, trading cools down
The total open interest of contracts across the network is about $140.564 billion, down only 0.51% in 24 hours, but trading volume dropped 22.28%.
This indicates trading activity declined faster, existing positions did not exit proportionally, and trading is quiet.
▍More bulls, but buy orders not necessarily dominant
The network-wide 24-hour active buy/sell ratio is 49.56% to 50.44%, with sell orders slightly dominant.
OKX's BTC account long-short ratio reaches 1.8, meaning about 64.3% of accounts are long, but this does not necessarily mean an advantage.
▍Spot and contracts diverge
BTC in the last 4 hours:
Spot net inflow of $10.8 million.
Contract net outflow of $80.82 million.
Extended to 24 hours, spot net inflow is $37.46 million, contract net outflow is $61.82 million.
According to this fund flow, spot shows net buying, contracts still dominated by active selling. But this does not prove all are shorts adding positions.
My judgment:
There is both support and divergence, not enough to confirm a reversal yet.
More worth watching than how many are bullish is whether subsequent buying can push the price up. Delivery volume exceeding expectations has laid the foundation for the revenue side, but the profitability side faces triple pressures of sluggish gross margins, energy storage deployment falling short of expectations, and surging R&D and capital expenditures. The probability of EPS missing expectations is high, and the overall earnings report presents a "mixed bag" pattern—revenue may slightly exceed expectations, but earnings per share are very likely below consensus. Market focus will quickly shift to management's statements on the progress of FSD v15, the commercialization pace of Robotaxi, and the full-year free cash flow guidance.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 SanDisk really made me question life a bit this week 😇😇
At the beginning of the week, it was hovering around 1600, but once ChangXin Storage's new technology news came out, the entire storage sector got hit, and $SNDK just kept dropping all the way down
It fell 19% in a week, with the lowest point actually touching 1279...
I previously bought at 1419.1 and sold at 1504.6, so that trade was timely, then I bought back more than one long position at 1341.1
Yesterday I was still up over 50 USD, but today when I checked back, the price had dropped to around 1300 again
That's pretty frustrating
However, my fundamental judgment on SanDisk hasn't fundamentally changed for now; ChangXin's breakthrough is in DRAM technology, while SanDisk mainly works on NAND, so the two can't be directly equated
But the market has obviously started to reassess the entire storage sector, and next week I want to focus on the reaction around 1300
No matter how logical the fundamentals are, if the price keeps going down, you can't just pretend you don't see it
NFA, DYOR!
#韩股修复反弹，外资卖压能否缓解？ Take the newly launched ctusdt as an example: 1 billion tokens were issued, and on the blockchain, about 19% is circulating, which is 190 million. The current price is roughly $0.35. This DNA talks nicely about only 13% circulation and the rest locked, but you actually issued 10 billion tokens, bro. That means you already have 1.3 billion circulating. What are all these bulls thinking? Don't blindly follow the hype to go long. 📊 Profit & Margin Outlook
Analysts expect revenue to grow, but profitability may remain under pressure due to aggressive price cuts and substantial capital spending.
• EPS Expectations: Consensus forecasts range from $0.37 to $0.44 per share, below the peak levels seen in late 2025.
• Automotive Gross Margin Watch: Investors will be watching closely to see whether core automotive margins can stabilize or recover from the 16.3% reported in 2026.
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #US PPI Year-on-Year Rises to 6.3%
[Old Leek Observation] US PPI Year-on-Year Surges to 6.3%, Adding Uncertainty to Rate Cut Expectations
US September PPI year-on-year growth rose from 5.6% to 6.3%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3%, marking the largest rise since March 2022. The rise in energy prices is a key driver of this rebound.
The issue is that if rising production costs continue to pass through to the consumer side, inflation may be harder to bring down than the market expects.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
If inflation continues to exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts may be limited, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields could again put pressure on risk assets like BTC.
But a rise in PPI alone doesn't necessarily mean the market will fall. Whether the shock from energy prices can persist and whether subsequent CPI follows suit are key to judging the inflation trend.
Right now, the market's biggest fear is not a temporary pause in rate cuts, but that the originally expected easing expectations are repeatedly broken by data. If inflation remains stubbornly high, it will also be harder for BTC to sustain gains driven by rate cut expectations.
Next, focus on upcoming inflation data and the market's repricing of the Federal Reserve's rate path. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $SOL is bearish, current price 104.82. Most of the liquidations in the past day were longs, with long positions liquidated by $3.26 million, significantly more than shorts. The price hasn't dropped much, but longs were knocked out first, indicating that during the intraday downward sweep, it was the leveraged longs chasing the highs who got squeezed out, while shorts just followed the trend. The $930 million open interest remains, so this liquidation volume is a small portion; leverage is far from cleaned out. If the price tests lower again, another batch of longs will be forced to exit. The funding rate has turned slightly negative, which only indicates a cooler sentiment and shouldn't be used as a reason. The chart shows lower highs, bearish moving average alignment, and volume contraction on rebounds, consistent with the liquidation direction. Next, it is more likely to retest around 102.43. The condition for a bullish reversal is the price reclaiming 107.37, with long liquidations no longer leading shorts.AVAX showed weak performance intraday, and despite increased volatility, it has yet to form an effective recovery, indicating that capital inflow into the public chain sector is still not clear enough. Avalanche's core strengths remain in subnets, institutional cooperation, RWA, and the gaming ecosystem, but whether these narratives can translate into token market performance ultimately depends on on-chain capital, user activity, and actual application revenue. Recently, the overall market is in a risk contraction phase, and highly elastic L1 assets are more susceptible to selling pressure. If RWA projects, ecosystem cooperation, or on-chain liquidity show continuous improvement later, AVAX's valuation expectations may be reignited; until then, its trend remains highly dependent on overall market sentiment. $AVAX
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 $BTC hasn't been checked for half a day, the 81,000 mark hasn't been broken, but it has climbed back a bit, now around 81,600.
This morning I was still pondering the situation in South Korea, but now the market itself is a more worthwhile signal to watch. It surged to 82,819 then dropped, bottoming at 80,780, and then was bought back — this is called absorption, not a crash.
What really caught my attention isn't the price, but the people. From the end of July until now, the short-term crowd has accumulated 420,000 more BTC, with positions piled up to the highest in four months. On one hand, the price has dropped a bit over seven days but is still higher than half a month ago; on the other hand, new money is desperately moving in.
These two facts together indicate that this position is not where retail investors are making mistakes, but where newcomers are taking over from the old hands. Those who bought six months ago are floating at an 8% gain, and those who entered 90 days ago are up 26% — these profits need to be realized first, which explains this wave of surging and then falling back. What are the newcomers watching? They are watching whether the 81,000 level can hold.
My view is simple: don't chase upwards; wait until it pulls back and stabilizes before acting. Chasing highs at this position means losing not the direction but the rhythm. There are many traps; don't touch them recklessly.
To add something annoying, Justin Sun came out bearish on BTC, arguing that AI development is too fast and will be exploited. I don't follow the coins Justin Sun sells, but I also don't buy into his argument — a person who has sold countless air coins coming to talk to you about technical risks, doesn't that seem off? Remember how he hyped storage last year; just listen and move on. What really matters is: where is the cost zone for the 420,000 BTC newcomers are taking over, and who will panic first if it breaks down. $BTC Bitcoin is struggling around $81,000, but Wall Street is doing something very interesting.
Charles Schwab has started offering direct Bitcoin and Ethereum trading to eligible U.S. retail clients.
Deutsche Bank is also preparing to launch digital asset custody services.
On one hand, there is a lack of market confidence; on the other, traditional financial institutions continue to invest resources.
This makes me think of a question:
If cryptocurrencies really have no future, why are these traditional financial institutions still continuously building related businesses?
But on the flip side, don’t rush to interpret these news as a bull market signal.
Banks willing to offer Bitcoin trading services doesn’t mean the banks themselves are bullish on Bitcoin.
The most profitable time for exchanges isn’t necessarily when customers are making the most money.
Wall Street doing business and retail investors making profits have never been the same thing.
I believe the biggest change in this crypto cycle might not be how high Bitcoin can rise next.
Rather, it’s that Bitcoin is gradually transforming from an independent speculative market into an asset that the traditional financial system can directly service.
This could be good for the industry’s long-term development.
But for the price, ultimately, someone still has to be willing to keep buying.
Better infrastructure doesn’t necessarily mean asset valuations will keep rising.
The road builders have already started collecting tolls.
Whether the cars on the road can make money, that’s another matter. #Circle's revenue in the first half of the year is about $1.4 billion
[Old Leek Observation] With half-year revenue of $1.4 billion, what money does Circle really want to make?
Circle's disclosed data for the first half of 2026 is worth breaking down.
The company's revenue and reserve income are about $1.4 billion, and USDC's on-chain transaction volume exceeded $36 trillion in the first half of the year. Looking at just these two numbers, it's easy to think that the stablecoin issuer is making money effortlessly, but the actual business is not that simple.
USDC requires reserve assets behind it, as well as bank channels, trading platforms, and payment partners to help distribute it. Circle must pay costs for these channels and also bear expenses for compliance, liquidity, and product development.
In other words, the larger the USDC scale, it does not mean Circle can directly pocket more income.
However, the $36 trillion on-chain transaction volume still sends an important signal: USDC is becoming an important dollar circulation tool in the crypto market and on-chain finance. The value of stablecoins is not just about how much users hold, but also how many times it is used for trading, settlement, and fund transfers.
Of course, transaction volume does not equal new capital inflow, nor does it mean that so much capital is deposited in USDC.
I believe the real focus of this news is that the stablecoin industry is shifting from "issuing dollar tokens" to competing for payment channels, users, and settlement scenarios. Whoever can make stablecoins more convenient for real payments in the future may hold a more lasting competitive advantage. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother
The total liquidation amount of the three major cryptocurrencies is nearly 150 million USD, accounting for more than 40% of the total network liquidation volume. This is the main battlefield where leveraged funds cluster to compete.
Sharing three noteworthy market signals:
In this round of decline, long positions are the main force of liquidation. The scale of long liquidations in these three cryptocurrencies is significantly higher than that of shorts. The BTC long-to-short ratio is about 7 to 3, and SOL even reaches 3.2:1, indicating that in the past 24 hours, bears dominated the sell-off, and longs with high leverage were concentratedly liquidated.
The difference in holding sentiment between BTC and ETH is very interesting. BTC longs account for nearly 69%, while ETH longs and shorts are roughly split evenly, about 52%. This structure indicates that ETH experiences more intense two-way squeezing during pullbacks, resulting in more extreme volatility.
Liquidation proportion does not equal market cap weighting. BTC and ETH liquidation amounts account for 44%, matching their market size; SOL liquidation accounts for only 3.5%, with smaller leverage volume, but even slight fluctuations can cause huge impacts on positions.
Everyone should understand that liquidation data is a lagging indicator, only reflecting market moves that have already occurred and cannot predict future trends. After large-scale long liquidations are completed, market leverage is cleared, and short-term downward momentum will weaken; once prices rebound, short covering will further boost the rise.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 POL is clearly under intraday pressure, with a decline greater than some mainstream assets, indicating that short-term funds still lack risk appetite for the scaling sector. Polygon's advantages lie in its brand, partnership resources, and multi-chain layout, but the market currently places more value on actual on-chain usage, stablecoin liquidity, RWA implementation, and fee revenue. The value capture expectation after POL's migration from MATIC also needs continuous validation; funds will not assign a high premium based solely on narrative. Going forward, only if there are substantial improvements in ecosystem cooperation, on-chain activity, or product progress will it likely regain attention; otherwise, it will mainly follow the broader market's fluctuations. $POL#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
A brief discussion on Netflix's Q3 earnings report: I still lean towards a slight beat on expectations, with EPS expected around 0.83–0.85 (consensus 0.82) and revenue about $12.9 billion (consensus $12.88 billion).
First, the guidance given in Netflix's July letter to shareholders reflects the company's genuine internal forecast and is not deliberately set low to be exceeded later, so actual results usually hover near the guidance. The last quarter was similar: revenue was $12.56 billion, about $300 million below expectations; EPS was 0.80, a penny above.
Second, the price increase is a confirmed positive.
Q3 is the first full quarter after the North American price hike; in Q2, North American growth was only 10%, so this quarter is expected to rebound. If revenue beats expectations, it will mainly be due to this factor.
Third, EPS is easier to beat than revenue.
Netflix has been repurchasing shares, reducing diluted shares outstanding from 4.349 billion in Q2 last year to 4.261 billion in Q2 this year. Fewer shares naturally push up earnings per share a bit. Additionally, items below operating profit such as foreign exchange gains/losses, interest income, and tax rates fluctuate each quarter. Q1's income tax was notably high. This is why I say the probability of a slight beat on the profit side is higher than on revenue; an EPS beat of a penny or two often comes from these items.
The above is my personal view and does not constitute investment advice.
#OKX美股财报季 Reviewing NeoSoul $DNA — The Ultimate in Insider Info and Marketing:
1⃣, Marketing is comprehensive and flawless, from the Hong Kong Web3 Festival, to Seoul KBW, then to Singapore TOKEN 2049, fully leveraging attendance to gain massive exposure. They are especially savvy, customizing T-shirts for Teacher Wang Duanniao, hosting lobster parties, various merchandise, offline interactions, etc. The marketing is truly meticulous in every detail;
2⃣, The timing and entry points are well coordinated. In 2026, when the market is focused on prediction markets and the World Cup, NeoSoul directly targets AI prediction, launching in April, a wave of promotion in May, integrating with the World Cup in June, announcing partnerships and financing in August, and even partnering with Alibaba Cloud in October to hold the TGE at peak hype. The pace is very tight; This wave of XLM looks more like a follow-down consolidation under a weak overall market background, with intraday lows being repeatedly tested, indicating a cautious attitude from short-term funds. XLM's payment narrative itself is relatively mature; what can truly bring sustained heat are cross-border payment collaborations, real on-chain usage, and progress in ecosystem applications. Currently, market risk appetite has not clearly warmed up, and funds prefer to chase high-volatility themes, making XLM prone to marginalization; however, if mainstream coins stop falling and there is new news in the payment sector, it may also experience a catch-up rebound. The key is to watch whether trading volume continues to expand, rather than just looking at a single rebound. $XLM Continue predicting OKX Prophet S3: Will Netflix Q3 GAAP EPS be higher than $0.84?
Personally, I lean NO! 📉
🔷 EPS expected only $0.82: Zacks data shows analysts have lowered estimates by 0.7% over the past 30 days, while the threshold for YES is at least $0.85.
🔷 US user engagement under pressure: Apptopia estimates that app downloads in the US and Canada have dropped 20% year-over-year, and daily usage time for US users has decreased from 77 minutes in Q1 to 73.2 minutes.
🔷 Layoffs won’t help Q3 for now: Netflix announced plans to lay off about 1,000 people on October 14, but Q3 ended on September 30.
Of course, Netflix revenue is still growing, and if profit margins or ad revenue exceed expectations, YES is still possible.
But overall, I still lean NO! I went all in on NO with the points I saved for two days! 😂
📝 This is just a personal prediction and does not constitute investment advice.
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Bitcoin breaks into 12th place globally, is silver the next target?
$BTC is now the 12th largest asset in the world, just ahead of Saudi Aramco, which ranks 13th. In 2020, Saudi Aramco was the company with the highest market capitalization worldwide.
To break into the global top ten, it still needs a significant rally. But the real ceiling is above: 6th place is silver, with a market cap twice that of Bitcoin. 1st place is gold, which is 18 times larger.
So Bitcoin's current situation is: it is already bigger than almost all companies, but still one order of magnitude behind the "precious metals."
What happened this week?
Tech stocks pulled back 6–10%, silver dropped 6.5%, while Bitcoin only fell 1.4%. Among the top 10, six had larger declines than Bitcoin.
The "smaller drop" indicates it is being treated as something different, which is why some traders shorted the entire tech sector but went long on Bitcoin.
The question is: will Bitcoin surpass silver next? In other words, if it doubles again, how long do you think that will take? Many people think that a big drop in the US stock market will definitely drag BTC down, and they are all talking about escaping the crypto native environment to embrace the US stock market. Well, that market trend is about to come.
The total risk capital in the market is limited. When other markets peak and fall, money naturally flows back to BTC, which has better odds.
Many worry that the US stock market has fallen enough to be cost-effective. In the short term, they often fall together, but over a longer period, it's completely the opposite. When the US stock market surged the most in May, the crypto market was drained and fell the hardest; from June to July, as the stock market started to fall, the crypto market bottomed out and stopped falling, and then from August to September, BTC directly started a big rebound.
The same applies to gold. When gold surged the most from December to February, BTC fell the hardest. When gold plunged off a cliff, BTC immediately bottomed out and rebounded.
These past two days, US stocks and AI have started to fall again, but BTC is hovering at a high level and just won’t drop. Now that the US stock market expectations are maxed out and the odds aren’t good enough, the money flowing out naturally looks for more cost-effective places.
After a few days, when AI stabilizes and market sentiment steadies, BTC will start a strong attack again.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓