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Last night's rebound, many only saw the price, but what I saw was two groups on-chain betting against each other.
On one side, a new address first took profit on a long HYPE position last night, then immediately went 4x long on ETH, with 20,000 long contracts and unrealized gains exceeding $6 million. The average entry price was 1936, so precise it doesn't seem like a retail trader.
On the other side, a whale address bc1qsy took advantage of the rebound liquidity and sold another 2,000 BTC in the early morning — totaling 9,513 BTC sold within a month, cashing out $623.4 million.
This is the most realistic portrayal of this rebound: some are rushing in with 4x leverage, while others are using the rebound to sell. In a short squeeze market, the stronger the price rises, the better the liquidity, and the smoother the whale's selling — the short-covering buy orders perfectly absorb the whale's sell orders.
So don't just ask "Can the rebound continue?" but ask "Has the $620 million selling pressure been absorbed?" If it has, this wave is a shakeout; if not, whoever chases above 70,000 is the one at the exit.Not easy, [Hyperliquid's largest long position leader] has gone from a floating loss of $120 million to breaking even now!
He has held long positions worth $487 million in BTC and ETH through 11 addresses for almost 4 months, enduring the losses for 4 months because he got stuck after opening the longs.
In total, he opened longs for 3,000 BTC ($216 million) + 120,000 ETH ($271 million), with an average BTC price of $72,000 and an average ETH price of $2,260.
After two days of explosive gains, he has gone from a peak floating loss of $120 million at the beginning of July to fully breaking even.
Some addresses:
0xa5b0edf6b55128e0ddae8e51ac538c3188401d41
0x8ea85cbd59affca28162fc286d5c093dd0f8edbc 📊 Just updated market data: $BTC around $71,420 (+4.35%) $ETH around $2,245 (+8.72%) $HYPE +16.84% / $TRUMP +14.63% This round is clearly driven by ETH boosting market risk appetite, with the ETH/BTC ratio also strengthening rapidly. Funds are starting to rotate from BTC to ETH and some high-volatility assets. But note: fund rotation ≠ new funds fully entering the market. The recent market rise is more driven by short squeeze, improved sentiment, and fund reallocation among mainstream assets. The fund flow into US spot crypto ETFs remains a key focus; without sustained net inflows, a rally driven solely by leverage is unlikely to evolve into a full bull market. ETH is currently at a dense trading zone near $2,240–$2,260, with 4-hour momentum clearly overheated. The risk/reward ratio for chasing gains now is not attractive. 📝 My response plan: BTC: If it continues to test around $71,800–$72,000, I will consider reducing some positions; if it falls back to $69,500–$69,800 and volume shrinks with stabilization, I will consider re-entering. ETH: Focus on support at $2,160–$2,190. If it holds and volume picks up again, continue to observe; if support fails, do not rush to buy. Altcoins: #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ BTC strongly broke through 72000 USD, reaching a new high since June. This round of rally is driven by the combined positive effects of policy, macroeconomics, and capital, but there is significant divergence regarding the sustainability of the rise.
The core upward support is divided into three layers. On the policy side, Trump expressed at the White House crypto meeting the discussion of large-scale BTC national reserve deployment, continuing the strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order, defining BTC as digital gold to hedge against USD debt risk, strengthening global institutional confidence, triggering concentrated long positions to squeeze shorts, with short-term liquidation exceeding 1.4 billion USD in shorts. On the macro level, the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, long-term US bonds declined, lowering the opportunity cost of holding crypto assets and warming risk appetite. On the capital side, spot BTC ETFs continue stable net inflows, exchange BTC holdings keep decreasing, and whale hoarding behavior consolidates bottom support.
However, there are multiple suppressive risks to the continuation of the rally. Greed sentiment is heating up, contract leverage continues to rise, easily triggering concentrated profit-taking corrections. On the policy front, expanding BTC reserves is only a discussion plan and has not yet been legislated, so the positive effects may be prematurely priced in. Technically, a large amount of short-term profit-taking positions accumulate above 72000; without continuous new capital inflows, selling pressure above will gradually emerge.
In the medium to long term, the US sovereign crypto reserve narrative has sustainability, and institutional long-term allocation logic remains intact; short-term market highly depends on ETF funds and US bond interest rate trends, and only after digesting floating profits through consolidation can upward space open. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Name: SanDisk
Direction: Short
Entry: Around 1650, 3-5 points are acceptable
Take Profit: [REDACTED-GW-BankCard_cn]
Stop Loss: 1680
Switch to long position when it drops below 1500 in a few days
Reason for short: It has consecutively broken the important support level at 1650 in the past two days
$SNDK abnormal volume and price; after the drop, the daily chart level starts to initiate an upward trend $BTC $ETH $XAU Gold entered a narrow consolidation at a high level after a sharp surge on Wednesday
Spot gold closed sharply up 4.35% on Wednesday, once breaking through $4,530 intraday, closing with a large bullish candle.
It has currently slightly pulled back about 0.92% to around $4,480, which is a normal profit-taking and technical correction after the sharp rise.
Intraday support to watch is in the $4,440-4,450 area; if not broken, light long positions can be tried.
Intraday resistance is near $4,550, around the 200-day and 250-day moving averages.
News is mostly bullish
1. U.S. Treasury expands bond repurchase—core catalyst for this surge
On the evening of August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the maximum single operation size of liquidity support repurchases for 10-30 year long-term nominal Treasury bonds to $4 billion, effective September 9. By issuing short-term bonds and buying back long-term bonds to suppress long-end yields, the U.S. dollar index immediately fell below 99, and U.S. Treasury yields dropped significantly, becoming the core driver of the gold price surge.
TD Securities pointed out that the combination of Treasury liquidity support, the Fed’s willingness to overlook energy shocks, and the intensifying stagflation narrative strengthens the rationale for precious metals to rise again.
2. Fed minutes: hawkishness less than expected
The FOMC July meeting minutes released early today show that although the Fed kept rates unchanged by a 9-3 vote and there were hawkish voices internally, only "a few" members supported a direct rate hike in July, far from a majority, weaker than the market’s prior expectation of widespread hawkishness. After the minutes were released, the market interpreted the hawkishness as less than expected, combined with Treasury repurchases suppressing long-end yields, gold and silver continued to rise.
3. Dollar continues to weaken—core support for gold prices
The U.S. dollar index has been weakening recently, dipping to 99.28 on August 17, a new low since early June. The root cause is the U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly "cold" (employment decreased by 23,000), July retail sales fell for the first time in nine months, and both CPI and PPI cooled down. CFTC data shows the dollar net long positions remain high, and speculative longs closing positions further amplified the decline.
4. Geopolitics: U.S.-Iran stalemate continues
The 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum officially expired on August 17, with neither side intending to extend it. Trump clearly stated no talks with Iran have taken place and none are planned; Iran has shifted to a "fully offensive" military posture. Shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz dropped to a standstill, and Brent crude oil rose above $90.
However, it is worth noting that the oil price surge is a double-edged sword for gold—rising oil prices push inflation up, which may force the Fed to tighten monetary policy again, suppressing gold through the chain "oil price rise → inflation rebound → rate hike expectations rise → dollar strengthens." Currently, Treasury support for long-end bonds has temporarily weakened this transmission.
5. Global central banks continue gold purchases—long-term structural support
As of the end of July, the People's Bank of China has increased gold holdings for 21 consecutive months, raising gold reserves to 76.08 million ounces (about 2,366 tons), with nearly 20 tons added in July alone, the largest monthly increase since gold purchases resumed in November 2024. In Q2, global central banks net purchased 288.9 tons of gold, a 411% increase quarter-on-quarter. 45% of surveyed central banks expect to increase gold reserves within the next year.
The above analysis is personal opinion for reference only.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
The institutional consensus is more fragile than expected; today's big surge has pushed expectations even higher.
Market page: In the past 90 days, 12 investment banks have a buy rating with an average target price of 42; CCB International only gives 37 with a neutral rating, and the target price range spans nearly 60%—HSBC 53.4, Huaxing 44, Goldman Sachs 41, showing huge divergence.
The "buy consensus" is based on two assumptions: automotive delivery + AI monetization. But Q2 profits have already halved, and the automotive segment still lost 2.6 billion; if either assumption fails, the consensus collapses.
Today's rise is sentiment, not validation of assumptions. I am bearish on this fragile pricing.
$XIAOMI $SKHYNIX is caught in a dense entanglement of moving averages around 163, with valuation reshaping driven by a 40 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation, alongside concerns about pressure on advanced process expenditures forming the core contradiction in the current market.
The price is currently converging and oscillating within the Bollinger Bands channel, with short-term moving averages converging indicating an imminent directional decision. The union wage agreement has eliminated short-term operational concerns on the fundamentals, while the commitment to allocate over 50% of free cash flow over three years to shareholder returns has raised the valuation floor of the chips.
Market driving factors show divergence: supply-side restraint on capacity expansion and the raising of the earnings per share ceiling dominate short-term support, followed by implicit concerns about cash flow being heavily locked up, squeezing next-generation HBM R&D expenditures.
On the upside scenario, if bulls push the price to break above the 166.16 resistance level with increased volume, it will confirm the momentum of valuation reshaping driven by the buyback. This scenario requires volume to expand synchronously; volume-less upward probes will reduce the effectiveness of the breakout.
On the downside scenario, if bears suppress the price below the 161.09 moving average defense level, market risk aversion regarding limited capacity expansion flexibility will dominate. This will trigger phased selling pressure and increase the probability of retesting the 156 support level.
The invalidation point is at the key defense level of 161.09. When semiconductor sector sentiment diverges from dividend expectations, or advanced process certification experiences delayed disturbances, the current valuation support logic will fail.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are whether the price can maintain the chip concentration above the 161.09 moving average and whether volume can continue to expand during the push toward 166.16.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？Don't lose your head in the euphoria of longs: $BTC #BTCBreaks72K is awaiting a pullback, $ETH needs confirmation, shorts shouldn't rush for a "revenge" yet. The main feature of this move is one word: fast. BTC quickly rose from minimal levels to about 70,000 dollars, with a daily increase exceeding 8%; ETH even more so — at one point it broke 2,300 dollars, gaining almost 18%. Market sentiment instantly shifted from "could the bear market really not be over yet" to "could the next stop really be 80,000 and 3,000 d🚨 Dormant Bitcoin Wallet Wakes Up After 15 Years
A wallet that received 8.54 BTC in 2011, when BTC was around $14, has suddenly moved its coins.
💰 The stash is now worth roughly $538K.
This may be repositioning rather than profit-taking, as long-term holders could simply be moving their BTC to new wallets. 👀$BTC surged to 72,059 after breaking through 70,000 today, then pulled back to around 71,730. The market is strong, but what truly deserves attention is not just this big bullish candle, but the changes in chip distribution behind the rise. According to CryptoQuant data, excluding exchange and mining pool addresses, large holders have net increased their BTC holdings by about 43,000 coins over the past 60 days, ending months of continuous net selling. Calculated at the time of the news release at about $64,000 per BTC, this batch of BTC is worth approximately $2.75 billion; at current prices, the value has exceeded $3 billion. However, it should be clarified here: an increase in on-chain balances does not mean all 43,000 BTC were directly bought on the spot market; it may also include OTC trades, custody adjustments, and address reclassification. The real signal it conveys is that large funds have increased their Bitcoin exposure again around $60,000, and the mid-term chip structure is improving. Whale accumulation can raise the market bottom but does not mean there won’t be short-term pullbacks. From the latest 5-minute chart, after BTC hit 72,059, it did not continue to accelerate and has now fallen below VWMA5, VWMA10, and VWMA20; RSI dropped from the overbought zone to around 61, BBP momentum is near zero, and volume has been decreasing from the peak at the breakout. This indicates that the first round of acceleration caused by short squeeze has slowed, and the market is waiting for new spot buying to take over. The divergence on the order book is also obvious: sell orders are concentrated around 71,900 to 72,100, which is currently $BTC surged 13%, $OKB rose 1%: Platform tokens underperforming in a major market move is a signal!
OKB at 103.11, 24h +1.35%.
During the same period, BTC rose 11%, $ETH rose 18%, making OKB the quietest asset today.
7-day +9.3%, 30-day +16.32%, moving averages in a bullish alignment, mid-to-long-term trend intact. But today it clearly lagged behind the broader market.
The driver for platform tokens is platform revenue + ecosystem demand, not directly affected by macro liquidity. So when BTC explodes upward, OKB lagging behind a bit feels normal.
Supply side unchanged: 21M hard cap locked, ICE invested in OKX with a valuation of 25 billion, X Layer upgrade continuously advancing.
A friend who does arbitrage said: "Today BTC exploded upward, OKB should have followed the rise, but it moved oppositely—either someone is selling off, seeing the big market move and exchanging their holdings for BTC, or liquidity is too thin."
Short-term weak but supply logic intact, a pullback is an opportunity.
Hold 100 for small position entry, reduce position if it breaks 98. Above 105 target 110.
Platform tokens not rising with the big market move often means big money is rebalancing! But after the frenzy? Will they regret the rebalancing?
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 Yes — a +12% Bitcoin rally during a bear market is completely possible. 📉
• 2018: +17% → then -60%
• 2022: +10.5% → then -63%
• 2022: +40% → then -37%
⚠️ Big rallies can happen even before the final bottom. A +12% move alone doesn’t confirm a new bull market.1) Market Divergence
2) Event Breakdown
NeoSoul's financing involved institutions such as MH Ventures and Amber Group, with funds allocated for AI agent trading products and infrastructure development. If the product launches, it could drive AI trading volume on the BNB chain. However, there is currently no mainnet operation data or user behavior records. Maya Protocol is a cross-chain protocol; after a vulnerability was exploited, its service was directly interrupted, assets were drained, and user trust was damaged. Such incidents repeatedly occur in DeFi, indicating that protocol security remains a core bottleneck.
3) My Judgment
Bullish logic: If NeoSoul's product truly enters the market, it may bring AI-driven trading scenarios, increasing real usage on the BNB chain. Risk factors: If protocol security is unverified, the financing might only be capital expansion rather than functional implementation. Cases of DeFi yield strategy failures show that behind high yields lies a fragile liquidity structure; once stress tests fail, funds withdraw rapidly.
4) Verification Conditions
It is necessary to observe whether the daily trading volume of AI trading contracts on the BNB chain increases, and whether Maya Protocol releases vulnerability fixes and audit reports. Without public data or changes in user behavior, the current financing and attack events still require verification.
For informational and market scenario analysis only; this does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.After this surge in BTC and ETH, I actually started to get a bit cautious.
But don’t short now, my short positions are already stuck. Luckily, the position size is small.
Feels like there will be another sprint!
The bears got hammered earlier, BTC and ETH accelerated together, and market sentiment suddenly shifted from "will it keep falling" to "is the bull market here". At times like this, I’m actually afraid to chase.
I’m still long-term bullish on BTC and ETH, but in the short term, it feels more and more like a tail-end rally. If BTC keeps pushing, I’ll focus on around 75,000; if ETH accelerates further, I won’t stubbornly chase either. The price can keep rising, but the higher it goes, the worse the risk-reward ratio becomes. It’s more comfortable to look for opportunities to short on rallies.
Speaking of SK Hynix, it’s surprisingly starting an independent rally without following SanDisk’s lead! Yesterday’s big rise wasn’t without reason. Besides following market risk appetite, there’s a large-scale buyback and cancellation plan worth 40 trillion KRW, combined with unchanged storage supply-demand and AI demand, so I’m still moderately bullish on SK Hynix in the mid-term.
The main players won’t let everyone comfortably eat the last bite. My strategy is simple: I can wait on SK Hynix, don’t chase BTC and ETH; if it really spikes, I’m ready to reduce positions on rallies or even look for shorting opportunities.
Overall bullish, but be cautious in the short term. The bell tolls in the 37th round, and the Federal Reserve launches a hidden move at the far end of the long table—a long-term bond repo expansion, like an international grandmaster sacrificing a pawn under heavy pressure just to clear a path for the king's wing.
In the early morning market, visible fatigue: the Nasdaq rose slightly by 0.16%, the S&P by 0.21%, and the Dow by 0.22%. Such fluctuations are barely enough to twitch an eyelid on the trading floor, but if you, like me, believe that "pieces don't lie," you should understand that what truly deserves attention is not the points but the tactical intent just revealed by the opponent.
The market has contracted defensively for two consecutive days during the retreat, suddenly catching a breath thanks to the Treasury's repo artillery. This is not a check, nor a checkmate; it is the opponent's forced "draw offer" under time pressure to stabilize the position. In a long endgame, such small moves often hide two possible directions: one, the position moves into equilibrium, with both sides grinding to a draw by the 60th move according to the rules; two, after sacrificing a pawn, the central pawn chain quietly stacks up, preparing to transition from the midgame to gain a more valuable position.
As someone who has spent most of their life on the chessboard, I never look at single-day candlesticks but only at formations. The easing pressure on bond yields is equivalent to Black temporarily losing the threat of a b-line breakthrough in a closed position. The three major U.S. stock indices all held their critical squares in this round, which itself indicates that the bulls' king's castle is not completely surrounded and still has usable pieces.
Then you might ask—what about $xLLY? This retail investor's piece always loves to make noise in quiet positions. I've seen too many amateurs get excited thinking the opportunity has come after the opponent makes an exchange, only to be beaten by a series of tactical combinations three moves later. The Nasdaq at 26,331 points is just a midpoint, not the final stop. A true player, after the opponent recklessly makes a long castling move, calmly repositions the queen, rook, and bishop to the h-file—ready to open that silent king's wing at any moment.
The Treasury's upcoming repo scale, term combinations, and auction rhythm will determine whether this game accelerates into the midgame or transitions into a long endgame. All current quiet piece maneuvers point in one direction: first relieve the pressure, then discuss the attack route. Don't be fooled by the surface term "closing higher"; to a grandmaster, this is merely a "simplification of the position," aiming to drag the complex midgame battle into an endgame they excel at—where experience crushes intuition and rhythm rules everything.
The first twenty moves of the opening have long been completed. Now everyone is waiting for that one move, still undecided, that will determine the entire game's direction. The ticking of the chess clock echoes from Wall Street at dawn to the monitor at midnight.
#ImpactCycle·Daily #TraditionalFinance·USStocks #Nasdaq26,331.09·+0.16% #dailyorbitToday's market hot topic: SK Hynix announces a massive buyback plan (about 40 trillion KRW), leading to a rally in the storage sector.
Three perspectives of interpretation:
1️⃣ Industry signal: A major buyback by a giant at the cycle bottom usually means management believes the stock price is undervalued, and the storage price increase cycle may continue;
2️⃣ Transmission to the crypto space: Storage/computing power is deeply tied to the AI narrative, with AI infrastructure sentiment improving → computing power demand → imagination space for crypto mining companies and related tokens;
3️⃣ Sentiment: The rebound in tech hardware boosts risk appetite, indirectly benefiting the overall crypto market.
Note:
• Buybacks are a long-term action; do not chase related targets at high prices in the short term;
• The sustainability of this "industry mapping" rally depends on earnings fulfillment; track HBM orders and NAND prices.
(Original content, not investment advice, DYOR)
#Hynix #Storage #BTCBreaks69000USD How far can this rally go? #FedJulyFOMCMinutes9to3 Officials still divided on rate hikes $BTCYili Hua: Bitcoin's strong rebound breaking through $68,000 may indicate the end of the crypto downtrend cycle
According to BlockBeats, on August 20, Yili Hua, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), wrote that he had repeatedly emphasized that July to August might be the last bottom-fishing window. From the perspective of Bitcoin's historical downtrend patterns, after the previous rebound ended and the third phase of decline occurred, BTC's strong rebound breaking through $68,000 may indicate that the crypto market's downtrend cycle has ended. A super high-rise building, touted as a city landmark and using a top-tier lateral force resistance system, completely fractured during the first heavy rain after delivery. The accident investigation team ultimately added this note on the conclusion page: the two structural engineers responsible for load-bearing wall calculations and concealed works inspection were exempted from additional breach compensation because they voluntarily handed over the full set of authentic structural calculation documents and supervision logs. This is the most glaring floor line I see while reviewing the final CFTC enforcement draft at this moment.
Ellison received a 5-year suspension from bidding on-site, and Wang’s registered seal was withheld for 8 years. Meanwhile, an additional criminal forfeiture order of $11.02 billion was imposed on both individuals—equivalent to the cost of excavating five underground levels and replacing the pile foundation for the entire construction site. In the face of this figure, the regulatory authority neither imposed nor needed to impose additional civil fines. Because any breach penalty would only be on the scale of interior works, while this sum already covers the demolition and reconstruction blasting budget.
People in the construction industry understand what a "5-year bidding ban" means: it is the closest penalty to license revocation in professional qualifications, ten times more painful than a fine. A structural engineer removed from the construction list for five years means the golden construction period of their career is directly capped. By the time the ban is lifted, design codes will have iterated at least three versions, and the old codes you are familiar with won’t even pass plan review. Wang’s case is more severe; 8 years is equivalent to a registered technician’s knowledge chain from drawings to site being completely severed.
Some ask why these two could exchange cooperation in the investigation for exemption from civil compensation? From an engineering management perspective, the answer is written on the shear walls of the ruins: the building collapsed, and the load-bearing walls took the brunt. But if someone can extract real load test data and concealed works images from the expansion joints, these materials become the only anchor point for post-disaster reconstruction. The regulatory leniency for cooperators essentially trades future regulatory evidence for current information exchange.
Therefore, I do not see this enforcement as leniency. The $11.02 billion clearance fee already indicates the building’s final rating: structural failure, complete demolition. The trading ban and registration ban are equivalent to stamping "Key Responsible Personnel Restricted from Practice" across the last page of the accident report—this seals their re-entry path more directly than any fine.
As for no additional civil fines, my understanding is: all the steel bars on the ruins have been fully cataloged and recycled; further fines would be like charging garbage removal fees repeatedly for the same site, serving no leak plugging purpose, only a symbolic stamping ceremony.
This is the architect’s settlement bill: Ellison and Wang are completely removed from the construction sequence, and that so-called crypto tower left no deliverable settlement monitoring records for the market. All investors received was a completion stamped page filled with false load values. All the columns on the foundation are hollow; we who draw the plans should have long since flipped this blueprint over—those "solid columns" marked on the drawings were never actually poured with concrete on site.
#ImpactCycle·Monthly #GlobalRegulation·FTCEnforcement #$11.02BForfeitureOrder·5YearTradingBan Account Position Divergence Radar
Is the directional consensus real or fake? You can tell by comparing account proportions with top holdings.
$BEAT has already formed a majority of bullish accounts, but the top holdings ratio is still below 1, indicating a clear misalignment between faction and position weight. When the price falls, OI increases simultaneously; this phase is not simply deleveraging, and position attribution still requires transaction verification. If the price continues to strengthen but the top holdings ratio remains below 1, this divergence has not truly converged yet.
$DOGE accounts lean bullish, but the top holdings weight still leans bearish. This data set only confirms divergence and does not judge a winner on either side. When price and holdings both decline, the position retreat is more definitively attributed to direction. If the price rises but top holdings continue bearish, position conflicts are still likely during pullbacks.
$SUI’s three ratios have not formed a unified order; what can be confirmed now is opinion dispersion, and no one-sided conclusion can be drawn. The decline accompanied by OI decrease mainly reflects old positions exiting rather than new positions continuing to push the price down. The account structure is still in flux; price and OI will determine which side truly gains the advantage. I see everyone is talking about $BTC. Honestly, not many have the guts to be bullish in this market. As soon as the news came out last night, everyone turned bullish. So let me talk about $OKB. ICE's $25 billion valuation investment in OKX happened in Q1. Now BTC is surging, but OKB hasn't reacted, indicating a pricing disagreement in the market.
A market maker friend said: "OKB currently has very thin OTC depth; a few large orders can easily distort the market."
But from another perspective: ICE's investment price implies an OKB valuation of $25 billion. Based on 21M circulating supply, the unit price should be 119, which is much higher than the current 103. The 13% gap in between is the valuation anchor.
Historically, OKB went from an ATH of 258 to 30 at the end of last year; now 103 is on the lower side of the middle range.
The valuation anchor is clear, there is a discount in the secondary market, and there is long-term allocation value.
Build positions in three batches at 100-102, stop loss at 95. Medium to long term target is 115-120. Avoid contracts.
Valuation anchor at 119, market price at 103, a 13% difference—that's the discount smart money should see.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 The White House meeting with the crypto industry, the market is most easily excited by the group photo
But what the industry really needs is a construction progress schedule
Policy-level support for crypto is of course important, especially with players like SEC, CFTC, exchanges, Ripple, Coinbase all sitting at the table together. But what I care more about is what can be implemented after the meeting: whether CLARITY can pass, how stablecoin regulations will be enforced, whether banks can serve crypto companies, how tokenized securities will be custodied, and whether DeFi has a legal path in the US
The crypto industry has suffered too many losses from "positive attitude" alone
Attitude can pull up a bullish candle, but systems can change capital costs. Institutions are not unwilling to enter, they are afraid that after entering the rules will change again, accounts will be frozen, and compliance boundaries will be unclear
Policy results are not just about supporting innovation
It means allowing legitimate money not to take detours, allowing compliant projects not to play dead, and enabling trading, custody, payment, and financing to operate transparently
#白宫会晤加密业，政策成果待观察 In a small European town in the mid-19th century, there was an old doctor named Gray who had been practicing medicine for thirty years. He had an almost prophetic ability: just by touching a patient's tongue, he could tell who would contract typhoid fever within a few days. For 30 years, he was right nine times out of ten, almost never failing. Moreover, he firmly believed in this "tongue diagnosis method." Years later, people realized that because he did not wash his hands, the typhoid bacteria on his hands were transmitted to patients through the tongue. This is the classic "tongue-touching doctor." Touch the tongue, the patient gets typhoid, and the conclusion is drawn: touching the tongue can diagnose typhoid. The real environment always gives us false feedback, leading to incorrect attributions, and using this wrong experience to guide the next action—this is the characteristic of a hostile learning environment. In the investment field, there are many "tongue-touching doctors." When Bitcoin broke through 70,000 in March 2024, everyone fantasized that altcoins would take off early, but the result was a continuous decline until August, because in previous cycles, Bitcoin always hit new highs first, then altcoins took off. Then everyone replicated the idea that altcoins would start to rise at the end of 2024, equivalent to when DeFi started to take off in December 2020, but instead, altcoins declined continuously from the end of 2024. Then they replicated the altcoin boom in the first half of 2025, equivalent to the altcoin season in the first half of 2021, but in the first half of 2025, Ethereum crashed miserably to just over 1300. Everyone believes 2025 will be a big bull market because 2021 and 2017 were key bull market years, Today, both the US stock market and gold surged together, and the root cause lies in the US Treasury market.
Everyone should have noticed that recently the 30-year US Treasury yield hit a temporary high.
Simply put, global investors are selling off long-term US Treasuries because they don't have much confidence in the US's ability to repay long-term debt. When bonds are sold, bond prices fall and yields rise — this situation is very unfavorable for the US in the long run.
Seeing the long-term rates about to spiral out of control, the US Treasury stepped in.
The strategy is to issue short-term government bonds, use the raised funds to buy back long-term government bonds from the market, forcibly pushing down long-term bond yields.
Once the news broke, the market immediately rallied: US stocks rebounded, gold $XAU surged in sync, the crypto sector $BTC led the gains, and $ETH exploded upward.
But the gap goes beyond this.
Because the market clearly understands that the proper way to truly solve the debt problem is to cut government fiscal spending. But with the midterm elections looming and one debt crisis after another, large-scale spending cuts are politically unfeasible.
So the US cannot solve the root problem and can only juggle debt to delay the current crisis and shift the risk to the future.
Meanwhile, the Fed still talks about balance sheet reduction, seemingly tightening monetary policy.
However, the Treasury’s actions send a very clear signal to the market:
Whenever debt or the market faces problems, there will be an unhesitating bailout, rendering fiscal discipline basically meaningless.
This puts the Fed in a very awkward position.
On one hand, it needs to raise rates to fight inflation; on the other, fiscal pressure forces it to support the bond market, severely questioning the Fed’s policy independence.
Now the market has reached a consensus:
Whenever the market can’t hold, someone will step in to backstop it.
Behind this backstop is essentially disguised money printing, making it very difficult to completely extinguish inflationary flames.
This explains why US stocks and gold are strengthening simultaneously.
But a reminder here:
International gold has now touched $4500, looking like it’s soaring.
However, when priced in RMB, domestic gold prices have not simultaneously hit new highs.
A large part of the gains has been eaten up by RMB appreciation. The same gold surged in USD terms, but the actual returns we get are discounted — this is something to be aware of.
So what’s the situation now?
No matter how much the Fed talks tough, as long as it doesn’t really raise rates, the market has lost trust in it.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Is this $BTC rally fueled by the bears?
24-hour liquidation amount is 2.56 billion!#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
At first glance, Pop Mart's financial report shows a profit of 5 billion, but a closer look reveals many issues.
In the first half of the year, revenue was 17.17 billion, up 23.8%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 5.04 billion, only up 10.1%. Profit growth is less than half of revenue growth, gross margin is declining, and the cost of expansion is beginning to show.
The structure is even more striking. The Chinese market grew 47.3%, while Asia-Pacific and the Americas dropped 9.7% and 16.5% respectively, indicating a slowdown in overseas expansion. LABUBU declined 7.5%, while Star People grew nearly sixfold to become the second largest IP, but whether one IP can fill the gap left by LABUBU remains to be seen.
IPs have life cycles; one hit product cannot support a listed company. Pop Mart's problems are not just about overseas sales slowing down, but also IP aging, new products failing to catch on, and slower inventory turnover. These three issues appearing simultaneously are more concerning for a company reliant on IP than just a slowdown in revenue growth.
For crypto traders, the takeaway is—don't treat a single narrative as a long-term belief. When growth shifts gears, the market won't give you much time to prove you can tell a new story.
Here’s my view. Pop Mart's financials themselves are not bad—17.1 billion in revenue and 5 billion in profit are strong in any industry. But what the market is really scrutinizing is another issue—slowing overseas expansion and IP structural shifts. These signals combined point to a growth ceiling that may arrive earlier than expected. $BTC and $ETH shorts have been sideways for a while now, probably about the same. After breaking the resistance level, all lines surged. Plus, with Trump speaking out, the SEC signaling loosening, and the Treasury increasing buybacks, positive news keeps coming one after another. In this situation, who still wants to stubbornly hold? What can they hold on to?
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Express (August 20)
According to liquidation data, the dog whales executed a textbook-level one-sided long squeeze on LAB — longs controlled the market from the 1-hour mark, with a concentrated 24-hour burst, accumulating liquidations exceeding $260,000.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $10,200 $5,896.76 $4,306.11
4 hours $31,800 $26,200 $5,521.28
12 hours $42,200 $36,700 $5,570.46
24 hours $261,000 $215,600 $45,500
From the $LAB liquidation data: at 1 hour, long liquidations crushed shorts (1.37x), volume at $10,200, with longs probing control but with mild intensity; at 4 hours, longs confirmed direction (4.75x), liquidation volume surged to $31,800, longs started to exert force; at 12 hours, longs continued to dominate (6.6x), liquidation volume rose to $42,200, longs sustained control with increasing momentum; at 24 hours, longs fully exploded, long liquidations at $215,600 versus shorts at $45,500, longs 4.74 times shorts, cumulative liquidations surpassed $261,000. The 24-hour liquidation volume accounted for 82% of the daily total, showing high concentration. The long-to-short liquidation ratio dropped from 6.6x at 12 hours to 4.74x at 24 hours, indicating the long squeeze momentum weakened somewhat but remained high overall, with a clear direction. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; avoid blindly bottom-fishing.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 20
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the Fed's "hawks" and the market's "doves" are in direct confrontation — the hawkier the minutes, the higher the market rises; the divergence itself signals direction.
🏛️ Fed July Minutes: 9 to 3 to keep rates unchanged, but hawks far outnumber votes
The Fed's July meeting minutes released on August 20 show the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland Fed President Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari all advocated a 25 basis point hike.
More importantly, the minutes reveal that the forces supporting a rate hike far exceeded the three formal dissenters; many participants leaned toward a 25 basis point hike but ultimately agreed to hold steady. The minutes clearly state that further tightening would be necessary if inflation does not improve. This was the Fed's most divided meeting in a decade.
₿ BTC Breaks $69,000: The hawkier the minutes, the higher the market
On the same day the Fed minutes were released, Bitcoin surged past $69,000, reaching as high as $70,059, the highest level since June.
The direct trigger came from traditional financial markets — on August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced raising the single repo limit for long-term Treasury securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. This macro liquidity injection ignited bullish sentiment in crypto. Coinglass data shows total crypto liquidations reached $1.61 billion in 24 hours, with shorts dominating. This was a classic "short squeeze" — shorts forced to cover, pushing prices up.
The hawkish signals in the Fed minutes did not suppress the market — because the market prices not "what the minutes said," but "what is happening with liquidity."
📱 Xiaomi Q2 Earnings: Phone pressure, car support
On August 18, Xiaomi released its Q2 2026 results: revenue of ¥108.9 billion, surpassing the 100 billion mark again; adjusted net profit of ¥6.2 billion.
The smartphone business is under full pressure, but the automotive business is the biggest highlight — the smart electric vehicle and AI innovation segment generated ¥24.9 billion in revenue, up 17.1% year-over-year, accounting for 22.9% of total revenue. Among this, smart electric vehicle revenue was ¥23.9 billion, delivering 104,199 vehicles, up 28.2% year-over-year. The SU7 series cumulative deliveries have exceeded 500,000 units.
However, concerns remain real — the automotive business posted an operating loss of ¥2.6 billion, with gross margin falling from 26.4% last year to 19.2%. The Pengcheng series SUV orders exceeded expectations; whether it can become a turning point in the second half remains the biggest variable.
💎 Summary
Three things paint the same picture: the hawkier the Fed minutes, the stronger Bitcoin rises — because the market prices not "who voted no," but the fact that "liquidity is easing"; Xiaomi supports growth with cars but losses persist, the transition between old and new engines is still painful. When hawkish minutes meet liquidity easing, when phone pressure meets automotive breakthrough — the August 2026 market is completing a new round of pricing in the most divided way. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ Marvell’s Google agreement matters less as a one-day share-price catalyst than as evidence that custom AI infrastructure is broadening beyond compute alone. The scope spans TPUs and related accelerators, storage controllers, networking and memory interfaces, giving Marvell several potential routes into Google’s buildout.
The warrants, covering up to 58.97M shares at $206.58, are not a completed equity purchase. Their real analytical value is alignment: if execution scales, expectations for custom-chip revenue may rise. The Aug 27 FY2027 Q2 report should show whether management is ready to translate that potential into guidance. Not advice, just analysis.
#MarvellGoogleChipDeal#Brothers, we expected a rise, but not this fierce!!! Let's calm down and talk about the real drivers behind this wave of BTC breaking 70,000 and ETH surging to 2300:
1. The root cause is the weakening dollar: The U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, the 30-year Treasury yield plunged sharply from a high of 5.33%, and the dollar index simultaneously plummeted. The liquidity valve loosened, and institutional funds were the first to catch the scent.
2. ETFs continue accumulating: Spot ETFs have seen large net inflows for several consecutive days, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing nearly 500 million in two days. Smart money is still buying above 68,000, which is not a volume retail investors can support.
3. News sentiment explosion: The White House crypto summit, new SEC regulations, and expectations for the CLARITY Act review—all three combined have led the market to trade on the narrative of a "U.S. crypto strategic reserve," knocking out the shorts directly.
4. Short squeeze spiral to the sky: 1.6 billion liquidations in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for 1.4 billion. After the price broke key levels, a chain of forced liquidations formed a typical short squeeze structure, pushing the price so high it makes you question reality.
Friendly reminder: Such a rapid surge like pulling scallions from dry land is questionable in sustainability. Don't chase the rise or sell off in the short term; watch the key levels closely—BTC holding above 68,000 means the trend may continue toward 75,000; if it can't hold, expect a pullback to 65,000. ETH's 2000-2080 range is the watershed; this is the launch platform for this breakout, so be cautious if it breaks down.
The above represents personal opinions only and does not constitute investment advice; please exercise caution.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ Why did Bitcoin suddenly surge? $BTC
Many people think it's because the crypto market is heating up again.
But this time, the real driver behind the market may not be just internal factors within the crypto space.
Let's look at it step by step:
1. The U.S. Treasury has started increasing bond repurchases.
The repurchase scale is rising, focusing on long-term government bonds with maturities of 10-30 years.
Simply put:
the government is actively managing its long-term debt.
⸻
2. Why now?
Because long-term government bond yields are at multi-year highs.
As government financing costs continue to rise, market capital becomes more cautious.
Bond repurchases release liquidity expectations, pushing interest rates down.
Once capital starts seeking returns again, it flows into risk assets.
Bitcoin is one of them.
⸻
3. The market was previously overcrowded with shorts.
Another key factor in this rally:
Too many people bet on a decline in advance.
In a short time, a large number of shorts were forced to cut losses.
The $1.4 billion short squeeze essentially means:
they weren’t bullish on BTC; they had to buy back to close positions.
⸻
4. Technicals formed resonance.
BTC broke through the key area near the 200-day moving average.
After breaking the long-term resistance line, algorithmic trading and trend-following funds started entering.
⸻
5. Regulatory expectations are improving.
The SEC has signaled a new regulatory framework,
leading the market to reassess the future growth potential of crypto assets.
At the same time, institutional funds are flowing back into ETFs.
Capital is refocusing on this market.
⸻
But here’s the key point:
Don’t simply interpret this surge as a full-scale bull market kickoff.
A large part of this rise comes from short squeeze.
The buying pressure from short liquidations happens only once.
A true trend reversal requires seeing:
continuous capital inflows;
ETF accumulation;
improved macro liquidity;
BTC holding key levels steadily.
Remember:
Bitcoin is no longer an isolated market.
When liquidity is loose, it rises;
when capital tightens, it falls.
If you only look at the candlesticks, you see the result;
understanding capital flows and macro factors lets you grasp the reasons.
Next, focus on:
whether BTC can effectively hold around 69000.
If it breaks through and closes above this level consistently, the market narrative will change.
If it falls back, today’s move might just be a liquidity-driven rebound.
Real trading opportunities never come from chasing after a rise.
They come from understanding the reasons when others panic,
and staying calm when others go crazy.
$BTC BTC surges to 72,000, ETH rises 20%, HYPE becomes a legend overnight
BTC was still at 62,800 three days ago, today it briefly touched 72,059; ETH pulled above 2,300, up over 20%; HYPE peaked at 74.5. A full-scale surge, with about $2.977 billion liquidated in the past 24 hours.
$BTC: Triple positive factors push it hard past 72,000
The U.S. Treasury announced at least a doubling of long-term Treasury repurchase scale; Trump met with crypto executives to promote regulatory clarity; SEC advances token issuance exemption proposal. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $487 million for two consecutive days. But the 1-hour RSI has surged above 85 into the overbought zone, and Coinbase premium index remains negative — U.S. spot demand has not truly returned yet.
$ETH: More of a catch-up rally
ETH rose to 2,300, Ethereum spot ETFs net inflows reached $189 million, a nearly 9-month high. But BTC market dominance rose to 59%, ETH looks more like it’s following the rally. The 2,300-2,350 range above is strong resistance.
$HYPE: Trump’s words make it legendary
Trump stated that the CFTC is working to bring Hyperliquid into the U.S., HYPE rose about 20% in 24 hours, market cap surpassed DOGE to rank ninth. But RSI reached 82.74, severely overbought.
All three assets are extremely overbought, leverage-driven rallies come fast and go fast. The 72,000 level is not a smooth path. When the Middle East conflict began in late February, the general expectation was that crypto, as a “risk asset,” would take the biggest hit. The actual outcome tells a different story that not many are talking about: BTC is down -4.4% since then, ETH -5.7%, while gold futures have dropped -14.7%.The situation where a position with an average cost of ETH 1880 dollars is exposed to market volatility ultimately stems from the discrepancy between leverage and spot supply and demand. The core issue addressed in this article is not a simple complaint about losses, but why this position is trapped at a specific price range and what kind of price structure can free it. First, let's look at the part already reflected in the price. The time when ETH hovered around 1880 dollars was a period when expectations for spot ETF demand and rising network fees coincided. Afterward, ETH broke away from this level, and the current price is fluctuating at a level lower than the previous high. In other words, 1880 dollars was a past supply-demand equilibrium point, not the current one. There are still two variables not yet reflected. The first is whether the accumulation movement of the OKB community is of a scale that can be confirmed in actual exchange liquidity pools. The second is whether the small altcoin rally represented by SNDK is a temporary refuge for funds that have exited ETH or the beginning of a new risk appetite axis. From the perspective of price structure and supply-demand, ETH's📊 $KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (August 20)
According to liquidation data, the dog whales executed a textbook one-sided long squeeze on KAITO — longs controlled the market from the 1-hour mark, momentum gradually amplified, then concentratedly exploded within 24 hours, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $660,000.
From $KAITO liquidation data: at 1 hour, long liquidations crushed shorts (3.8x), volume $1,724, longs tentatively controlled the market; at 4 hours, longs confirmed direction (3.1x), liquidation volume surged to $25,400, longs started to exert force but with moderate multiples; at 12 hours, longs continued to dominate (2.33x), liquidation volume rose to $113,800, longs maintained control but momentum began to wane; at 24 hours, longs fully exploded, longs were 5.65 times the shorts, liquidation volume soared to $664,500, shorts were completely crushed. The 24-hour liquidation volume accounted for 86% of the total daily volume, showing extremely high concentration. The long-to-short liquidation ratio jumped from 2.33x at 12 hours to 5.65x at 24 hours, long squeeze momentum sharply intensified, and the gap between longs and shorts suddenly widened. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; do not blindly bottom-fish.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 20
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the Fed's "hawks" and the market's "doves" are in direct confrontation — the hawkier the minutes, the higher the market rises; the divergence itself is the direction.
🏛️ Fed July Minutes: 9 to 3 to keep rates unchanged, but hawks far outnumber votes
The Fed's July meeting minutes released on August 20 show the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland Fed President Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari all advocated a 25 basis point hike.
More importantly, the minutes reveal that the forces supporting a rate hike far exceeded the three formal dissenters; many participants leaned toward a 25 basis point hike but ultimately agreed to hold steady. The minutes clearly state that further tightening would be necessary if inflation does not improve. This was the Fed's most divided meeting in a decade.
₿ BTC breaks $69,000: the hawkier the minutes, the higher the market rises
On the same day the Fed minutes were released, Bitcoin surged past $69,000, reaching as high as $70,059, the highest level since June.
The direct trigger came from traditional financial markets — on August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced raising the single long-term Treasury repo cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. This macro liquidity injection ignited bullish sentiment in crypto markets. Coinglass data shows total crypto liquidations reached $1.61 billion within 24 hours, with shorts making up the vast majority. This was a classic "short squeeze" — shorts forced to liquidate, which in turn pushed prices higher.
The hawkish signals in the Fed minutes did not suppress the market — because the market prices not "what the minutes said," but "what is happening with liquidity."
📱 Xiaomi Q2 Earnings: Phone pressure, car support
On August 18, Xiaomi released its Q2 2026 results: revenue of ¥108.9 billion, surpassing the trillion-yuan scale again; adjusted net profit of ¥6.2 billion.
The smartphone business is under full pressure, but the automotive business became the biggest highlight — the smart electric vehicle and AI innovation business segment revenue reached ¥24.9 billion, up 17.1% year-over-year, accounting for 22.9% of total revenue. Among them, smart electric vehicle revenue was ¥23.9 billion, delivering 104,199 vehicles, up 28.2% year-over-year. The SU7 series cumulative deliveries have exceeded 500,000 units.
But concerns remain real — the automotive business operated at a loss of ¥2.6 billion, and gross margin fell from 26.4% last year to 19.2%. The Pengcheng series SUV orders exceeded expectations; whether it can become a turning point in the second half remains the biggest variable.
💎 Summary
Three things paint the same picture: the hawkier the Fed minutes, the stronger Bitcoin rises — because the market prices not "who voted against," but the fact that "liquidity is easing"; Xiaomi supports growth with cars, but losses persist, and the switch between old and new engines is still in a painful transition. When hawkish minutes meet liquidity easing, and phone pressure meets automotive breakthrough — the August 2026 market is completing a new round of pricing in the most divided way. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 The moment BTC broke through 69,000, the futures market seemed muted by someone, then suddenly exploded. Have you noticed that in this rally, spot is moving slowly while futures are aggressively catching up? Let's first review the market situation. BTC peaked at 69,888, just a breath away from 70,000. ETH was not to be outdone, surging to 2,119 with a single-day gain of over 8%. On the altcoin side, many followed the trend, but the real leaders were those with stories to tell. The trigger was straightforward: the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term bond repurchase operations, causing the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to quickly drop from a 2019 high of 5.33% to 5.19%. Once this long-term interest rate leash was loosened, BTC took off like a kite with its string released, shooting upwards. But what really drove this sharp rise was not spot buying but a short squeeze in the derivatives market. Above 63,000, there were many high-leverage short positions stacked up; once the price broke the key level, a chain of liquidations fell like dominoes, pushing the price higher layer by layer. The ETF side was also lively, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing a net inflow of over $200 million in a single day, adding fuel to the fire. The question now is: can you still chase at this level? My view is that chasing the high in the short term carries significant risk. There is a dense cluster of profit-taking around 69,000, so the price will likely need to consolidate and digest. The first support is seen between 65,800 and 66,000; if the pullback holds steady, then... Last night's White House meeting was no longer just Trump saying "good news for Crypto".
Trump gathered SEC, CFTC, Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken, Ripple, Chainlink, as well as traditional financial and crypto industry giants like Nasdaq, NYSE parent company ICE, and released several very clear signals:
The U.S. is discussing further increasing Bitcoin and other digital assets; Congress must push forward the CLARITY Act next; CFTC is studying allowing Hyperliquid to compliantly enter the U.S.; meanwhile, the U.S. must maintain global leadership in Bitcoin, Crypto, prediction markets, and AI.
More importantly, SEC, CFTC, NYSE, Nasdaq, and Crypto companies have started sitting at the same table to discuss how to truly integrate new financial products like stablecoins, on-chain financing, perpetual contracts, and prediction markets into the U.S. financial system.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong directly mentioned at the White House that the next big battle is the 60 votes for the CLARITY Act.
Why is this important?
Crypto is gradually evolving from "an asset class supported by Trump" into a set of financial infrastructure that the U.S. is preparing to operate long-term. Overnight Rally｜Bitcoin and Ethereum Surge Together, But It's Not About the Coins Themselves🔥
Who got confused by the market last night?
Bitcoin and Ethereum both surged late at night, and many thought it was the coins themselves entering a big bull market.
But understanding the logic reveals that the root cause of this rise is not within the crypto market itself.
✅ Complete logic behind this round of rally:
1️⃣ The U.S. Treasury made a big move, doubling the bond repurchase scale from 2 billion to 4 billion, focusing on 10-30 year long-term bonds.
2️⃣ Previously, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a 2019 high, attracting funds to pile into government bonds with high yields, continuously draining risk assets.
3️⃣ The repurchase operation suppressed Treasury yields, causing a large outflow of funds from the bond market, which then started flowing into stocks and risk assets like crypto.
4️⃣ The market was heavily bearish beforehand, with many short positions set up, everyone waiting for further declines.
5️⃣ When the market started to rise slightly, it triggered a chain of short squeeze liquidations, forcing huge buy orders to enter, further pushing up coin prices.
👉 Key point: Short squeeze liquidations are passive buys and happen only once; they do not indicate long-term capital entering the market.
6️⃣ Prices broke through the critical 200-day moving average, triggering algorithmic trading strategies to place bulk buy orders.
7️⃣ The SEC regulatory draft was released, giving some crypto projects a chance to no longer be classified as securities, improving policy expectations.
8️⃣ The White House crypto industry summit is about to be held, with top institutions attending, and the market is preemptively pricing in the positive news.
9️⃣ Bitcoin ETF funds are flowing back, with major institutions resuming net inflows.
💡 A very realistic reminder:
This rally may not be a complete trend reversal.
The surge caused by short squeeze is powerful but questionable in sustainability.
Related crypto concept stocks also surged sharply, but a single-day spike cannot make up for months of prior losses.
⚠️ Ordinary players must remember:
What determines coin prices now is not just candlestick charts.
U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve news, and U.S. fiscal policy have much higher priority than technical chart patterns.
Key resistance level is 69,000; only if the price can close steadily above this level can the market narrative be truly rewritten.
If it spikes up and quickly falls back, this round is just a short-term rebound.
Having been in crypto for so long, I deeply feel:
If you don’t understand the underlying logic of the rise, you will be among the last to react when it falls.
During volatile market swings, don’t blindly chase highs; pay more attention to the macro news calendar.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Cryptocurrency #CryptoReview #比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单 #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC $圈干货 #BTCETH行情$ETH $BTC
Note: Content is market opinion only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency carries extremely high risk.CME Hedge Funds Shift BTC Futures to Net Long: Unusual Position Changes of Wall Street Capital
In the CME Bitcoin futures market, hedge fund positions have shifted to net long.
Short positions purely used for arbitrage are shrinking, and bullish active long bets are emerging.
CME Hedge Fund Net Position: An important indicator measuring whether institutions hold short positions for spot arbitrage (basis trading) in the futures market or are targeting directional upside longs.
From Arbitrage to Directional Bets: Transitioning from the risk-free "spread capture" strategy of buying ETFs + shorting futures to genuinely targeting upside with "directional buying," capturing potential capital flows.
Constraints and Illusion Possibilities: Due to data discrepancies caused by CFTC regulatory aggregation standards (standard futures vs. micro futures), caution is needed in confirming a full buy-in shift.
True Bull Market Conditions: The key "three horsemen" combining CME short position reduction, spot ETF inflows, and strong spot buying demand. This marks an important watershed where Wall Street institutions' Bitcoin buying purpose shifts from "risk hedging" to "directional investment." The trend of spot ETF inflows and changes in the derivatives market structure deserve attention.Bitcoin surged with a big bullish candle, and thousands of troops came to greet it!
After calling for a Bitcoin rebound for over a month, we've been grinding at the bottom for a super long time, and today finally gave a decent rebound.
This spot wave was fully exited around 68500; this is the tenth wave profit-taking in this year's bear market, and this time we waited especially long.
Moreover, this wave also included positioning in triple-leveraged tokens, so the profits are quite good.
Previously mentioned that on 8/27 there will be a Bitcoin Asia Summit, so there should be significant volatility in the coming days.
Just now, the U.S. Treasury announced a U.S. debt buyback, and Bitcoin finally reacted.
Recently, due to the high yields on long-term U.S. debt, the market has been very panicked about investments, still fearing the interest rate hike issue.
This round of U.S. debt buyback operations not only pulled up Bitcoin but also gold and silver.
What’s worth noting here is,
such big good news, yet the U.S. stock market didn’t react much.
As mentioned in the previous article, risks are gradually arriving, so we are gradually reducing U.S. stock holdings, and have completely exited the double-long positions on Micron and Hynix.
These days, we reduce holdings on rallies, slowly pocketing cash.
Bitcoin might also execute the last shorting wave of this bear market!
Patience is key Bitcoin rises to 70,000, why do I still not believe the bear market is over?
On August 16, when Bitcoin was still consolidating around 63,000, I indicated that the rebound rally was not over yet.
The next day, Bitcoin started to rise and yesterday it broke through the July 21 high with increased volume, reaching nearly 70,000 at its peak.
At the same time, there have been obvious recent regulatory positives:
Trump met with executives from Coinbase, Gemini, Ripple, and other crypto industry leaders, as well as heads of the SEC and CFTC, pushing for the CLARITY Act to advance quickly again;
The SEC proposed a new regulatory framework for crypto assets, providing new registration exemption paths for some token issuances, further easing regulatory uncertainty.
Stimulated by these positives, voices in the market saying "the bull is back" have clearly increased.
Although this rebound slightly exceeded my previous expectation around 67,700, I still currently believe:
This rise is most likely still a rebound, not a reversal.
Why?
1. This round of rise has obvious short squeeze factors
Besides the positive news, the 65,500–67,500 range previously concentrated a large amount of short liquidation liquidity.
After the price broke through, chained liquidations further amplified the upward movement.
In other words:
The news ignited the spark, the liquidation mechanism amplified it.
But above 70,000, short liquidation liquidity clearly decreases, and without new funds continuously pushing, the short squeeze rally alone is unlikely to sustain a continuous rise.
2. Price structure and volume still do not look like a trend reversal
The rebound rally since July 1, 2026, like the previous two rebound rallies (Nov 21, 2025–Jan 13, 2026, and Feb 6, 2026–May 6, 2026), has been unfolding along a rebound channel, and yesterday’s surge belongs to the c wave of this rebound rally.
At the same time, compared to the previous two rebounds, the trading volume in this round of rise has not shown a particularly obvious increase.
A true trend reversal usually requires stronger sustainability and volume support.
Currently, these two signals are still not obvious enough.
3. On-chain indicators still lack typical bear market bottom confirmation
LTH-RP and CVDD are important long-term indicators for observing Bitcoin cycle bottoms.
Historically, several bear market bottoms have broken below LTH-RP and landed right on the CVDD line.
Currently, CVDD is about 48,900, LTH-RP about 49,600, and Bitcoin’s previous low was about 57,800, which is still noticeably above these two indicators.
This does not prove the bear market definitely won’t end, but at least indicates:
There is still a lack of typical cycle bottom confirmation signals.
4. There is still a large amount of liquidation liquidity below
The 47,000–57,000 range still contains a large amount of liquidation liquidity, especially concentrated around 50,000–52,000.
This means there is still a significant potential price magnet area below.
Therefore, before the price structure shows obvious changes, I still will not directly judge that a new bull market has started just because of a strong rebound.
Of course, I will not stubbornly stick to one view.
If Bitcoin can continue to rise with increasing volume and effectively break through rebound channel 3, then the current rebound structure may change, and I will re-evaluate the judgment of "whether the bear market is over."
The above analysis is for reference only and is not investment advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #BearMarket Samsung is throwing a staggering 100 trillion KRW into shareholder returns: How big of a storm will this heavy blow from the Asian semiconductor giant stir up?
South Korean semiconductor giant Samsung Electronics is about to announce a historic shareholder return plan worth up to 100 trillion KRW (approximately 75 billion USD). As soon as the news broke, the entire Asia-Pacific financial circle and the global semiconductor supply chain exploded with excitement.
After enduring the past two years of a downturn in memory and fierce competition in the HBM sector, Samsung suddenly pulls out this nuclear-level capital ace, and its impact is far more than just giving shareholders a bigger dividend.
If you see this 100 trillion KRW move merely as routine market value management, you are seriously underestimating its profound impact on the global tech supply chain and capital liquidity.
This heavy blow will trigger chain reactions in at least three dimensions:
The first dimension is the global memory chip industry declaring an end to vicious overcapacity expansion, ushering in historic self-discipline on the supply side.
Over the past two decades, the biggest fear for competitors in the global memory chip industry has been Samsung’s counter-cyclical, suicidal expansion fueled by its seemingly bottomless cash flow. Whenever prices slightly recover, Samsung would pour all its hard-earned cash into wafer fabs to wage price wars, pushing Taiwanese and American rivals into dire straits.
But this time, Samsung is locking up a massive 100 trillion KRW in cash for stock buybacks, cancellations, and cash dividends, sending a very clear strategic signal to the entire market: Samsung will no longer blindly pursue absolute scale monopoly of mature capacity but will shift to pursuing high-quality growth in return on equity (ROE) and earnings per share (EPS).
When the memory kingpin starts restraining capital expenditures and returns cash to shareholders, peers like Micron, SK Hynix, and even SanDisk can finally shed the shackles of vicious price wars, substantially raising the profit ceiling and stability of the entire memory chip cycle.
The second dimension is smashing the Korea Discount, triggering a massive migration of global long-term capital.
For a long time, Korean chaebols have suffered from a severe Korea Discount due to family control, stingy dividends, and opaque governance, with price-to-book ratios consistently below 1. Samsung’s response to the Korean government’s corporate value enhancement plan by deploying liquidity equivalent to nearly 20% of its market cap for buybacks and cancellations will directly boost its return on net assets.
For Wall Street’s long-term pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, which have been squeezed by high valuations in US stocks in recent years, a semiconductor giant with historically low P/E ratios and a cash cushion worth hundreds of trillions will create a huge liquidity siphon effect, driving foreign capital back into Asia’s core assets.
The third dimension is conveying a consensus on asset scarcity to the Bitcoin world.
As global tech giants at the top of market cap rankings embark on massive share cancellations and contraction modes, the capital market is forming a very clear new paradigm: in an era of fiat currency flooding and debt expansion, only scarce assets that can continuously generate real positive cash flow and have hardcore buyback and cancellation mechanisms can truly weather cycles. This forms a fascinating cross-sector resonance in asset pricing with Bitcoin’s halving mechanism that compresses secondary supply.
However, amid optimism, the market also poses Samsung its toughest ultimate test:
While deploying hundreds of billions of USD in cash for shareholder returns, can Samsung deliver qualified results in the second half of this year on the technical front of Nvidia’s HBM3e and next-generation HBM4 certifications? If the technical barriers are successfully overcome, this 100 trillion KRW capital restructuring will become Samsung’s strongest springboard to leap across cycles.
After Samsung announced the 100 trillion KRW shareholder return, do you think this will completely end the vicious cycle in memory chips? Among Micron, Hynix, and Samsung, who do you think will achieve the greatest excess returns in this AI wave?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Don't just look at HYPE surging 20%, calculate the compliance premium and liquidation accounts behind it.
At the White House press conference, a single remark from Trump pushed Hyperliquid ($HYPE) into the regulatory spotlight of the CFTC. $HYPE immediately surged above $72 intraday, and related US stock targets rose over 30%.
Most people only see the “positive surge” but completely miss the chip-killing scheme behind this political co-optation:
1. The “pricing power struggle” common among institutions
Perp DEX used to be considered an offshore gray product; compliant institutions wanting to deploy funds simply couldn’t pass risk control. The CFTC’s special push to enter the US market is essentially using compliance licenses to seize the ultimate pricing power of on-chain derivatives. Once this door fully opens, the trillion-dollar institutional funds settled in traditional markets will finally have a legal channel to enter.
2. The “secondary restructuring” of chip distribution
Looking at the liquidation heatmap, before the news broke, retail investors had placed high-leverage short positions around $60. This sharp rally directly wiped out the short liquidity completely. After the high-level turnover, $HYPE transformed from a small coin for retail speculation into a branded asset with a “political premium.”
3. The “positive realization trap” traders need to guard against
Political winds are easy to blow, but the CFTC’s specific compliance rules, KYC restrictions, and underlying liquidation access will take at least several months of tug-of-war. When chips rise near previous highs, blindly chasing the rally to bet on a one-sided main uptrend is very likely to encounter a false breakout where market makers use the positive news to unload.Why the global online payment giant Stripe acquired OpenRouter
Stripe announced an agreement to acquire the AI model aggregation platform OpenRouter, with the deal price reportedly slightly above $8 billion. OpenRouter enables developers to access over 500 large models from more than 80 companies (including OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, and domestic ones like DeepSeek, Kimi, Qianwen) through a unified API. It currently processes over 10 trillion tokens daily, serving more than 10 million developers and enterprises, with revenue coming from about a 5% commission on usage fees.
The acquisition background is the high cost of AI computing power for enterprises, which urgently need cheaper and more flexible model solutions. Tokens have become the "central currency" in the AI era. Stripe had previously launched a token billing product, and this acquisition further positions it in the AI consumption infrastructure, helping customers intelligently route requests and optimize token spending, while expanding its presence in the AI economy.
Three months ago, OpenRouter was valued at only $1.3 billion. This premium is significant, with a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 50 times, but the platform's role as a transit hub and the rapidly growing token throughput give it strategic positioning value for Stripe. Why is Bitcoin rising? $BTC
The reason is not cryptocurrency.
Listen, I'll write it in order:
1. The U.S. Treasury doubled the size of bond repurchases. Each operation increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion.
2. The target is 10-30 year bonds. The government is repurchasing its longest-term debt.
3. The reason is as follows: the 30-year rate has reached a 19-year high. When government debt yields are this high, no one wants to take risks.
4. The repurchase action lowers rates, and funds flow back into risk assets. This opens the road to Bitcoin.
5. The market has been heavily shorted. Everyone expects a decline, everyone is shorting.
6. In just 4 hours, $1.4 billion of short positions were liquidated. These people bought not because they love Bitcoin, but because they had to buy to stop losses.
7. The price broke through the 200-day moving average, at $69,031. It had been below this line for months. Technical buy orders were also triggered.
8. On the same day, the SEC announced regulatory drafts. It clarified the capital raising framework, paving the way for mature networks to exit the securities category.
9. The White House will hold a cryptocurrency meeting. Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z will participate. The market has already priced in this positive news.
10. Funds flowed back into ETFs. On August 17, led by BlackRock and Fidelity, net inflows were $297.5 million.
Now to the point.
Remember this: Bitcoin no longer acts alone.
It rises when funds are abundant and falls when funds decrease. You can't understand this just by looking at charts because the reason isn't in the charts.
Honestly, this is not a trend reversal.
Most of the rise comes from forced buying. Liquidated shorts only buy once; they won't repeat the next day.
Strategy surged 13% today, Coinbase rose 11%. Both have fallen more than 35% since the beginning of the year.
A one-day rebound cannot erase a year's losses.
What you should do:
Be cautious.
Buying on the second day of the squeeze likely means catching those forced buyers exiting.
Open your calendar. The Fed meeting minutes and Treasury statements are now more important than Bitcoin charts. Mark the dates.
Note 69,000 points. If it closes and holds above this, the story changes. If it doesn't hold, today is just a jump.
I've been in this market for 12 years. If you don't know why it rises, you don't know why it falls. In both cases, you're always the last to know.
Save this. Next time there's a big fluctuation, check these ten points in the same order.
(Content above reposted from a certain X blogger) $BTC #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $BTC Bitcoin (BTC) surged strongly today, breaking through the $72,000 mark (24-hour increase over 11%), driven by multiple factors including macro liquidity easing signals, short squeeze, and key technical breakthroughs:
1. Direct stimulation from macro liquidity
The U.S. Treasury has increased bond repurchase efforts: The U.S. Treasury recently announced a significant expansion of its Treasury bond repurchase program (planned to continue from early September through November). This move sent a strong signal of easing and liquidity replenishment to the financial markets, directly lowering U.S. Treasury yields and weakening the dollar index.
Capital flows into inflation-resistant/high-risk assets: As market expectations for future liquidity improvement surged, funds quickly flowed into scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin, using them as hedges/premium tools against potential inflation and currency depreciation.
2. Technical breakthroughs and short squeeze
Key moving averages and resistance patterns broken: BTC recently successfully broke through the descending trendline and the 200-day moving average, confirming a phase bottom pattern (such as the neckline breakout of a head and shoulders bottom).
Accelerated short liquidations pushing prices up: Many traders had established short positions in the $65,000–$68,000 range. When the price forcibly broke through this key psychological level, a large number of short stop-loss buy orders were triggered instantly, creating a classic "short squeeze" scenario with accelerated upward momentum.
3. Resonance between spot and derivatives market sentiment
ETF and institutional funds follow suit: After the macro positive news, spot ETFs and OTC funds showed net inflows, replenishing buying depth.
Rotation among major tokens: BTC's breakout led to synchronous rises in major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), with overall market risk appetite clearly rebounding. $BTC surged ~7% to nearly $69,750, driven mainly by a massive short squeeze after crowded bearish positioning collided with Treasury’s increased long-term bond buybacks, which pushed the 30-year yield lower. However, ETF outflows and miner selling suggest the move was more positioning-driven than proof of strong, lasting demand.
The bigger long-term development was the SEC’s proposed “Regulation Crypto Assets” framework, which could establish clearer rules for crypto offerings if finalized BTC directly broke through 72,000! This short squeeze is brutal, let's break it down simply
Brothers, I just checked the market, BTC directly surged above 72,000. Intraday gain over 5%, rallying from around 64,000 to 72,000, a nearly 8,000-dollar rise from the low. I'm really impressed by this move.
A couple of days ago it was stuck around 64,000, then last night a big bullish candle pushed it to 69,000, and today it kept going straight through 72,000. The market switched from "extreme suppression" to "euphoric sentiment" in just a day and a half.
First, why the rise: three major positive factors stacked together
The core catalyst was the US Treasury announcement—on August 19, it declared that starting September 9, the single repurchase size for 10-30 year Treasury bonds will increase from 2 billion to at least 4 billion. Once the news came out, the 30-year Treasury yield quickly dropped, the dollar weakened, and gold surged over 3%. The market immediately began to reprice liquidity expectations.
Then the US SEC disclosed a new regulatory framework, establishing a safe harbor mechanism, with a $5 million cap on fundraising during the project launch phase, and up to $75 million annually during the regular phase. After compliance, securities classification can be lifted. The White House also held a crypto industry summit, and Trump came out again calling to push the CLARITY Act. Continuous regulatory positives gave incremental funds confidence.
Plus, Trump met with senior executives from multiple crypto companies at the White House. Multiple positives combined to ignite the market.
But what really made the gains so exaggerated was the shorts getting crushed
The strongest driver of this rally wasn’t active buying, but passive buying—shorts being forced to cover.
BTC was stuck around 64,000 for a long time, and the derivatives market accumulated a large amount of leveraged short positions. Once the price broke through a key liquidation cluster, many shorts triggered forced liquidations, short covering created a chain reaction of buy orders, pushing the price even higher. Over $1.3-1.4 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for over 90%. Reports say short liquidations exceeded $2.7 billion.
Simply put: shorts were too crowded, when the price rose, they were forced to buy back to close positions, which pushed the price higher, causing more shorts to liquidate—a classic short squeeze positive feedback loop.
However, there are a few signals to watch
First, Coinbase premium index is still negative, indicating demand in the US spot market hasn’t truly returned; this rally is mainly leverage-driven, not supported by spot buying.
Second, Glassnode issued a warning that on-chain data is still in a "capitulation phase," and before the realized profit-loss ratio breaks above 2, any rebound is more likely to be local.
Third, technically the market is seriously overbought, with 1-hour and 4-hour RSI both above 85. After a sharp rise, a pullback to digest profits is usually needed.
Here’s my current view
72,000-75,000 is the next major technical resistance zone. Whether BTC can hold above 72,000 is critical—if it holds, the next targets could be 75,000 or even 78,000; if it fails and falls below 68,000, this rally is just a quick short squeeze correction, not a trend reversal.
My strategy now is simple: don’t chase the first big bullish candle. Wait for a pullback confirmation; if it stabilizes with lower volume around 68,000-69,000, then consider entering. If it breaks and holds 72,000 with volume, then look for opportunities to follow up. Stop loss must be set properly; if key support breaks, exit promptly.
Brothers, have you gotten on board this wave? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $SNDK $ETH $SPCX
Let's talk about today's market analysis
This morning, the US stock storage sector rose, driven by the rise in the Korean stock market. However, a risk needs to be pointed out here: the US stock market has recently been moving independently, with the leading role played by the Korean stock market as a pioneer. Usually, most of the gains during the day are erased after the market opens, so avoid chasing the rally.
There is a large capital inflow into the crypto market, with ETH trading volume soaring to hundreds of billions of dollars, and the volume ratio increasing by 4 times. This indicates that the volatility risk funds attracted away by US stock contracts recently are starting to flow back. This is a signal worth noting, as capital attention is increasing. I judge that the crypto market should have a good trend ahead, and it is recommended to follow the trend.
Regarding US stocks, you can also pay attention to targets outside of hardware storage, such as SPCX, GOOGL, Apple, Meta, etc. When storage volatility decreases or declines, sector rotation usually occurs, pulling up these old tech stocks. You can buy on dips and cash out on highs. This round's script with $SKHYNIX $SNDK is somewhat like a wealthy landlord returning money to the people with a 70/30 split. I wonder if anyone has noticed that the buyback is of treasury shares, cashing out company cash flow reasonably at a high level. But if the cash-out at this position is completed, and retail investors panic sell, they then use the cashed-out money to buy back at a low price, isn't it still back in their own hands, continuing to pay dividends? The capital market doesn't believe in tears; from a business mindset, that's how it is—left hand to right hand, buying time, letting the goods keep flowing, and not letting the market collapse quickly. Not sure if this is correct. Anyway, if something unexpected happens, have a plan first. #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡