Posteo

The record $102.20/bbl front-month diesel-WTI crack spread matters less as an isolated market extreme than as a signal about where inflation pressure may travel next. With diesel inventories at a 30-year seasonal low, restricted Hormuz transit and lower Russian fuel supply leave limited room for disruption. My read: if the squeeze persists, diesel’s direct role in transport, farming, food and heating could make it a more consequential macro variable than Brent above $91, potentially complicating the path for inflation, Treasury yields, gold and BTC. The key distinction is duration: a geopolitical spike can fade; a refining and inventory constraint may not. Not advice, just analysis. #DieselCrackHitsRecord