Posteo

A September Fed hold may be the base case, but the more important signal is why that view has strengthened. July retail sales fell 0.6% month over month, nonfarm payrolls dropped by 23,000, and both CPI and PPI eased. Together, those readings point to softer demand, employment and inflation rather than one isolated weak print. With market-implied odds of a hold near 69%, conviction is meaningful but not settled. My read: incoming jobs and inflation data now matter less for confirming the consensus than for testing how quickly it could unravel. #GoldmanSeesNoSeptHike