EricSJ
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#沃尔玛在美销售放缓，消费压力受关注
Walmart $WMT needs to generate at least $10.9 billion in free cash flow in the second half of the year
This is actually not part of the financial report, but something I inferred from a statement made by management during the earnings call
"Free cash flow for Walmart this fiscal year is expected to achieve double-digit growth"
In the previous fiscal year, Walmart $WMT's full-year free cash flow was $14.923 billion
Based on a minimum 10% growth expectation, this fiscal year also needs to reach at least $16.415 billion
So
Subtracting the results from the first half of the year, we get about $10.9 billion in free cash flow needed, a year-over-year increase of about 36.4%
This means an additional $2.906 billion needs to be generated
Looking at the purple section in my image, you should be able to see that the required year-over-year growth rate is as high as 36%
I really don't think Walmart can achieve this growth in the next two quarters
The only two recent instances of over 36% year-over-year growth happened after the 2022 inventory crisis, but this time there is no such motive or background
"Management said the main factors are strategic projects and inflation, with no obvious inventory risk"
So this time, Walmart needs to generate nearly $2.9 billion more free cash flow while maintaining high capital expenditures and without significant inventory reduction space
EricSJ
Walmart's free cash flow dropped by 20%, where will the $10.9 billion come from in the second half of the year?
When a company's profits grow but free cash flow declines, and management boldly claims that free cash flow will grow by double digits in the second half of the year, on what basis? If we only talk about the core business, Walmart's $WMT latest earnings report is quite good in terms of revenue and profit: Total revenue for Q2 reached $187.9 billion, up 5.9% year-over-year; adjusted operating profit increased 17.4% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share reached $0.81, up 19.1% year-over-year; The company also raised its full-year guidance for sales, operating profit, and earnings per share. However, I think the cash flow changes in this earnings report are worth discussing, and looking at them reveals they are hard to achieve. Here are two data points to consider: Walmart's free cash flow in the first half of the year dropped from $6.943 billion in the same period last year to $5.529 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 20.4%; Yet management still expects free cash flow for the full fiscal year to achieve double-digit growth. What does this mean? Many may not have a clear idea. In the last fiscal year, Walmart's $WMT full-year free cash flow was $14.923 billion. Even at the minimum threshold of "double-digit growth" of 10%, this fiscal year needs to reach at least $16.415 billion. Subtracting the $5.529 billion already generated in the first half, the second half needs at least $10.886 billion, while last year's second half free cash flow was about $7.980 billion. Look at the chart I made; the purple part clearly shows the comparison.
The weekly Bitcoin spot ETF data is fully out.
As expected, it is indeed the largest single-week net inflow this year.
There is a logic behind the data of this rally worth paying attention to.
This time, the $BTC weekly price increase is the largest in the past two and a half years, but the inflow volume has not yet exceeded several peak values from earlier this year, so it can only be considered a normal amount.
The essence of price movement is: buying power vs selling power.
This rally is not because the buying power suddenly became super strong, but because the sellers' willingness dropped to freezing point, so it only took a little push to ignite the fuse and send the price up.
Therefore, now the price is determined jointly by capital inflow and supply contraction.
Looking at the ETF inflow volume in the past two days, on the 21st it was nearly 50% less than the previous day (this change might just be noise).
If ETF inflows continue to slow down but the price remains strong,
then it can further validate a viewpoint: near $80,000, holders' willingness to supply has still not significantly increased.
This situation will amplify volatility because when the market enters a low supply state, the price's sensitivity to marginal capital increases significantly.
A small amount of new buying power may drive a larger price increase, and vice versa as well.
EricSJ
There are two relatively optimistic data points in this round of rally:
Both $BTC and $ETH spot ETFs have recorded their highest weekly net inflows in nearly half a year and the second highest since the beginning of this year.
(And this statistical data is incomplete, only three days of this week have been counted)
If the undisclosed remaining two days of data are included, it is highly likely to be the largest single-week net inflow this year.
From the weekly K-line perspective, the last time BTC had a single-week increase of over 20% was in February 2024.
In other words,
this rally also marks the largest single-week increase in nearly two and a half years (not a hater).
Walmart's free cash flow dropped by 20%, where will the $10.9 billion come from in the second half of the year?
When a company's profits grow but free cash flow declines, and management boldly claims that free cash flow will grow by double digits in the second half of the year, on what basis? If we only talk about the core business, Walmart's $WMT latest earnings report is quite good in terms of revenue and profit: Total revenue for Q2 reached $187.9 billion, up 5.9% year-over-year; adjusted operating profit increased 17.4% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share reached $0.81, up 19.1% year-over-year; The company also raised its full-year guidance for sales, operating profit, and earnings per share. However, I think the cash flow changes in this earnings report are worth discussing, and looking at them reveals they are hard to achieve. Here are two data points to consider: Walmart's free cash flow in the first half of the year dropped from $6.943 billion in the same period last year to $5.529 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 20.4%; Yet management still expects free cash flow for the full fiscal year to achieve double-digit growth. What does this mean? Many may not have a clear idea. In the last fiscal year, Walmart's $WMT full-year free cash flow was $14.923 billion. Even at the minimum threshold of "double-digit growth" of 10%, this fiscal year needs to reach at least $16.415 billion. Subtracting the $5.529 billion already generated in the first half, the second half needs at least $10.886 billion, while last year's second half free cash flow was about $7.980 billion. Look at the chart I made; the purple part clearly shows the comparison.
There are two relatively optimistic data points in this round of rally:
Both $BTC and $ETH spot ETFs have recorded their highest weekly net inflows in nearly half a year and the second highest since the beginning of this year.
(And this statistical data is incomplete, only three days of this week have been counted)
If the undisclosed remaining two days of data are included, it is highly likely to be the largest single-week net inflow this year.
From the weekly K-line perspective, the last time BTC had a single-week increase of over 20% was in February 2024.
In other words,
this rally also marks the largest single-week increase in nearly two and a half years (not a hater).
Strong intuition: Bitcoin $BTC is ready to return to seventy thousand soon
When researching a project, people tend to habitually make choices and judgments based on familiar memories rather than selecting other information.
For example, it's hard to imagine a man wearing a certain food delivery uniform could be an excellent public school teacher; this is a cognitive bias in the process of perceiving things.
Besides that, people are also influenced by the impact of things when making decisions, often overlooking the actual fundamental strengths and weaknesses of the thing or project.
$BTC has reached initial resistance, this single day move is very smooth
You can take profit first, sī mǐ dá
Next, consider placing a short order at 64000
EricSJ
Resistance levels are derived like this for $BTC
On the 4H chart, a Fibonacci retracement was drawn, with around 63700 as the 0.382 resistance level
After a weekend, the consolidation led to a downtrend. Next, the direction needs to be decided again, but first, watch the rebound to confirm the trend#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Resistance levels are derived like this for $BTC
On the 4H chart, a Fibonacci retracement was drawn, with around 63700 as the 0.382 resistance level
After a weekend, the consolidation led to a downtrend. Next, the direction needs to be decided again, but first, watch the rebound to confirm the trend#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
EricSJ
A new week
Big coin $BTC starts to push towards the 63,000 level, consolidating around this area throughout the entire weekend, forming a new structure
Looking at the market indicators, all intraday cycles are at low levels
I think this wave can break through, with resistance around 63600-63700
A new week
Big coin $BTC starts to push towards the 63,000 level, consolidating around this area throughout the entire weekend, forming a new structure
Looking at the market indicators, all intraday cycles are at low levels
I think this wave can break through, with resistance around 63600-63700
Someone uses USDe, who is buying USDE?
$StablecoinX(USDE)$ announced its first quarterly report after listing on the 14th. Judging by the name, this is a company that is very unfamiliar both in the US stock market and in the Web3 industry. Some might assume from the name that it is a company engaged in stablecoin issuance. Looking at the balance sheet, it is indeed closely related to stablecoins, but it is not in the issuance business. If you buy it now, investors are essentially buying 3.032 billion $ENA tokens, plus a crypto industry infrastructure business that has just started generating revenue. Therefore, the perspective of this financial report needs to start with understanding the company itself before delving into the financial details. 1. What kind of company is StablecoinX? We need to distinguish three different entities. The following is an introduction organized by AI. The most confusing part here is: StablecoinX's Nasdaq stock ticker is "USDE"; Ethena issues a synthetic dollar called "USDe"; these two are completely different assets issued by two different entities. The stablecoin issuer is the Ethena protocol, and under Ethena, there is a governance token called ENA, which is the main asset of StablecoinX. It can be roughly understood that Ethena is upstream, ENA is midstream, and StablecoinX is downstream. It can be said that StablecoinX is Ethena in the traditional