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EricSJ
EricSJ
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#沃尔玛在美销售放缓,消费压力受关注 沃尔玛 $WMT 下半年需要产生的自由现金流是至少109亿 这其实不是财报里的部分,而是我根据管理层在财报电话会上的一句话反推出来的 “预计沃尔玛本财年的自由现金流能够实现两位数增长” 上一财年,沃尔玛 $WMT 全年自由现金流为149.23亿美元 按最低的10%预计,本财年也需要达到至少164.15亿美元 所以 把这个数字减去上半年已有的结果,就得出了约109亿美元的自由现金流数据,同比增长约36.4% 相当于还要多产生29.06亿美元 看我图片的紫色部分应该能看出这个需要的同比增长率高达36% 这个数据增长我真的不认为沃尔玛在接下来的两个季度能够实现 最近的两次超36%的同比增长,都发生在2022年的库存危机之后,但这次没有这个动机和背景 “管理层称主要是战略项目与通胀,没有明显库存风险” 所以这一次,沃尔玛要在资本开支维持高位、库存又没有大幅去化空间的情况下,多创造近29亿美元自由现金流
EricSJ
EricSJ
Walmart's free cash flow dropped by 20%, where will the $10.9 billion come from in the second half of the year?
When a company's profits grow but free cash flow declines, and management boldly claims that free cash flow will grow by double digits in the second half of the year, on what basis? If we only talk about the core business, Walmart's $WMT latest earnings report is quite good in terms of revenue and profit: Total revenue for Q2 reached $187.9 billion, up 5.9% year-over-year; adjusted operating profit increased 17.4% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share reached $0.81, up 19.1% year-over-year; The company also raised its full-year guidance for sales, operating profit, and earnings per share. However, I think the cash flow changes in this earnings report are worth discussing, and looking at them reveals they are hard to achieve. Here are two data points to consider: Walmart's free cash flow in the first half of the year dropped from $6.943 billion in the same period last year to $5.529 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 20.4%; Yet management still expects free cash flow for the full fiscal year to achieve double-digit growth. What does this mean? Many may not have a clear idea. In the last fiscal year, Walmart's $WMT full-year free cash flow was $14.923 billion. Even at the minimum threshold of "double-digit growth" of 10%, this fiscal year needs to reach at least $16.415 billion. Subtracting the $5.529 billion already generated in the first half, the second half needs at least $10.886 billion, while last year's second half free cash flow was about $7.980 billion. Look at the chart I made; the purple part clearly shows the comparison.

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