Orbit Post Sitemap
#BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat
BTC and ETH ETFs both experienced outflows, but on October 1, BTC saw an inflow of 102.7 million.
▪️ On September 30, BTC spot ETFs had an outflow of 148.7 million, ending a 9-day streak of net inflows totaling 3.1 billion.
▪️ Ethereum had another outflow of 55.4 million on October 1, totaling about 118 million over three consecutive days.
▪️ Cooling indicators: Spot demand over 30 days shows a contraction of about 170,000 BTC; speculative futures demand dropped from 164,000 to 16,000 over 15 days.
▪️ Profit-taking hit a new high this year: on September 22, 25,700 BTC were cashed out in a single day.
The disagreement isn’t whether capital is cooling, but which data period is used to measure the "cooling." ETFs measure one day, while the demand line measures the past 30 days—which includes the hottest days in mid-September.
So on the same day, two numbers can move in opposite directions: BTC ETFs turn positive, but the demand line still contracts.
To reflect the true state of late September, we need data covering only those specific days.
Which time window do you trust more? Late night review of selected coins: three underrated tokens, each with different underlying trends
$SNDK 1742, +1.62%. Storage cycles are heating up, AI servers are driving NAND demand, and SanDisk's share is not small. 1742 has risen from 1700, with volume becoming active. If Micron's earnings report tomorrow night exceeds expectations, the storage chain may resonate collectively; if it's average, watch for a pullback to support first.
$SLX 0.06429, -0.28%. While the market mostly rose, it alone fell; the issue is not logic but depth. Equipment is leased to wafer fabs with long-term contracts locking in cash flow, so the leasing model still holds. 0.065 is the short-term defense line: if it holds after earnings verification, there's rebound potential; if broken, don't cling to the fight.
$RE 0.49028, +0.41%. The thinnest and slowest, yet the most stable. DeFi insurance plus small RWA, 0.45 hasn't been broken for a month. No hype, but the base is solid. The wind hasn't come yet, so endure; when it comes, then watch the height.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 The ultimate result of $ZEC being strongly controlled by a few is zeroing out.
Stop recharging your faith and fantasizing about the privacy coin leader.
In the future, positive news stories can push the coin up,
but let's look back and see who holds the chips.
Unless Grayscale is Satoshi Nakamoto and disappears now without ever repurchasing,
then the story can make sense.
If not, it's very simple: there will definitely be a sell-off!
Institutions sell on good news, while retail investors pay the price for the good news.Term Structure Radar
The annualized basis of $ETH mid-term contracts is lower than both ends: near/mid/far annualized basis +5.48%/+3.74%/+4.44%. The mid-term unit time premium is lower, and cross-period trading also depends on actual bid and ask quotes; the annualized difference does not equal lockable profit.
$SOL annualized near-term is higher, with a negative gross spread for buy near sell far: near/far annualized basis +2.9%/+1.29%, buy near sell far quote gross spread -0.8% (costs not deducted). The near-far premium on the mark price has been offset by actual quotes, and the annualized difference has not converted into a positive price spread for this set of quotes.$BTC Non-farm payroll data is fully positive, but the result follows a familiar pattern: after surging to 87239, it dropped all the way down, with the current price falling back to 84577.
This is a typical case of buying the rumor and selling the fact. Before the announcement, the market had already priced in the positive news; once the actual data landed, bulls took the opportunity to take profits. The previous strong resistance at 85500 has now become short-term strong resistance, and the price has fallen below that level.
Key points on the chart now:
Support is first seen around 84400; if this level does not hold, the next step will be to test the 82000‑83000 range.
The larger bullish structure is not completely broken yet, but short-term sentiment has clearly weakened, with the short-term Bollinger Bands opening downward, releasing retracement pressure.
Do not blindly chase longs just because of the non-farm positive data. Realizing the positive news does not mean an immediate surge; the market prefers to first shake out floating profits.
Two possible follow-up scenarios:
✅ If support at 84400 holds, there is still a chance to rebound and test resistance at 86000‑87000;
❌ If 84400 is effectively broken, the retracement will deepen, moving to the 82000‑83000 range for thorough turnover.
Volatility will be huge after tonight’s data; prioritize position control, don’t rush to bottom fish, and wait for clearer market signals.
DYOR, manage your risk well. $BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $CT continues to short! The bulls who chased the highs the day before yesterday are now all trapped across the board!
Look at this set of data: the smart money long positions the day before yesterday were just over 80,000 U, with an average price of 0.47. Today, the position surged to 350,000 U, a full 4 times increase, forcibly pushing the average price up to 0.53, yet the current price is still around 0.51.
What does this mean? It indicates that the new bulls who poured in hundreds of thousands of U are all stuck at high levels. The bulls as a whole are already floating a loss of over 10,000 U. Only a pitiful 20% are making money. The newly entered funds not only failed to push the price up but instead hung themselves halfway up the mountain. As soon as the market dips slightly, these people will panic sell. Their stop-loss orders will immediately become the fiercest selling fuel.
The bulls who chased the highs are already trapped. The shorts continue to hold tight, just waiting to feast on the chips from those who can't hold and cut their losses!Others are watching, I am fearful
Others are exiting, I am fearful
Others are entering, I am fearful
Others are fearful, I am fearful
Others are greedy, I am fearful
Others have small losses, I am fearful
Others have small gains, I am fearful
Others have heavy losses, I am fearful
Others have huge gains, I am fearful
Others are taking off, I am fearful
Others are flying, I am fearful$390 million spot trading volume, today the price level is more important than the numbers
As of 17:40 on October 2, OKX's $ETH spot 24-hour trading volume was approximately $390.7 million, with a volume of about 144,000 ETH. Active trading combined with price increases indicates that the market has indeed completed a large amount of turnover, but the trading volume still cannot be directly equated with new funds, because every buy has a corresponding sell. More informative is where the price remains after the turnover: currently near the upper half, indicating that chips sold at low levels have temporarily been taken over at higher prices; if the volume then shrinks and the price moves sideways, it could mean selling pressure has eased or that the chase for price is retreating, which requires judging in combination with the depth of pullback; if volume expands and the price falls back below the opening price, it indicates that high-level transactions have not formed a stable cost. What $ETH bulls truly want to see is not that the daily trading volume is as large as possible, but that after volume expands, the market is willing to continue trading at higher levels. Volume is the process; cost migration is the result.
If the same trading volume can only push a smaller price increase, it may mean supply above has increased; if volume shrinks but the high level holds, it indicates sellers are not in a hurry to exit for now. The volume-price relationship needs continuous comparison; single-day numbers can easily be distorted by a large order.If you have multiple floating profits without taking profits, you should reflect on your trading system. You need to think about why you opened this position, whether you followed your own trading logic to execute it, and if your take-profit and stop-loss points are not very accurate, do you need to wait for a perfect hit before exiting? Do you need to be stubborn about this aspect?$BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC have been running hard today, but the momentum is starting to look a little tired. I took profit on my long positions this morning and closed everything. Since then, I haven’t opened a new position. And honestly? I spent most of the day just watching. 😅 The market kept pushing higher, but I didn't want to chase the move after already taking profit. That’s one thing I’m slowly getting better at: ❌ No revenge short
❌ No FOMO long
❌ No forcing a trade just because the market iThe U.S. September jobs report came in much weaker than expected, and Bitcoin reacted almost immediately. 🇺🇸 September NFP
➡️ Actual: +29K
➡️ Expected: ~90K
➡️ Unemployment: 4.2%
➡️ Monthly wage growth: +0.1%
➡️ July + August revisions: -60K combined So was today's earlier BTC rise a preemptive move? It certainly looks interesting. BTC was already climbing before the data, and the weak employment number then provided another catalyst for the upside. Bitcoin moved above $87K following the releaThe low point of $2673 provides a reference, not a permanent safety cushion
In the past 24 hours, $ETH dropped to a low of $2673.43, then rebounded to around $2750, making $2673 the clearest defense reference for today. However, the intraday low is just the result of a specific period's supply and demand balance, not a market-signed long-term bottom line. If subsequent pullbacks find support at higher levels, it indicates buyers are willing to raise their cost; if the price approaches $2673 again with increased volume but weaker rebounds, this low point may instead be consumed. Many people treat the price of the first successful rebound as absolute support and increase their positions on the second touch, ignoring that each test changes the order book and position structure. $ETH's support must be continuously proven by subsequent trading. A more prudent observation is to compare lows, rebound heights, and pullback speeds, rather than just drawing a line on the chart. Reference points help set invalidation conditions but do not guarantee that invalidation will never occur.
The more a support is repeatedly tested, the more one must observe whether the supporting funds are still present, rather than assuming that more tests mean stronger support. The role of reference points is to assist action, not to comfort positions. The strength of the rebound after a breakdown can also test whether the original buying pressure has already withdrawn.$AXS Damn it! This round of AXS is purely a capital game, no fundamentals at all, just a bunch of pump-and-dump players calling each other idiots. The sky is falling, folks, the 1.196 level is obviously a repeated shakeout, retail investors simply can't hold, chasing in just means getting slapped back and forth.
Looking at the chart, volume is shrinking sharply, the rebound is weak, and the resistance around 1.2 is tight, a typical pump-and-dump distribution rhythm.
My plan is simple: short directly near 1.196, set stop loss at 1.235, if it breaks that, accept it, don't stubbornly hold. The target is first 1.12, more aggressively 1.08.
If you want to follow, go to the token market card below and act, keep your position light, and always use stop loss.
👇👇👇Oct. 2, in two snapshots:
04:21 UTC → $57.99M liquidated in one hour. 98% were SHORTS.
14:56 UTC → $38.76M liquidated in one hour. 95% were LONGS.
Same market. Same day. Opposite casualties.
Crypto didn’t simply rally after weak U.S. payrolls—it swept leverage from both sides within hours.
Today’s lesson is unusually clean: direction changed; overconfidence didn’t.#In September, US non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. On Friday's market, the three major players were each busy with their own moves: one was range trading, one was repairing the elevator, and one was leveling up.
$BTC hovered around 84,800, up 1.6% in 24 hours, like a duty captain. Whenever non-farm payrolls, US bonds, or the Fed cough, it’s the first to check the radio; with no news, it returns to the 85,000 post for range trading. Support at 82,000, resistance at 85,500, the range is as narrow as a workstation; without volume, don’t expect it to pick a direction on its own.
$ETH is oscillating around 2,705. The SEC’s custody proposal is a long-term positive, but the 2,700 to 2,800 range feels like elevator maintenance, stopping at every floor. Retail investors wait for a catch-up rally, it waits for instructions; no one moves first.
$SOL at 118.68 still shows 30-day volatility. It’s guerrilla fighting between 118 and 120, like a teenager in an internet cafe—winning and shouting to level up, losing and blaming laggy equipment. Don’t overcommit, set your take-profit line first; it’s easier than persuading someone to sleep early.
On the macro side, US bond yields moved down a bit, VIX dropped just above 16, giving risk assets a breather. But if US stocks and liquidity shake tonight, these three might just coast through Friday and jump straight to Monday’s opening.
No big moves in this market; controlling your hands is better than anything. Were you watching the market or slacking off on Friday? Which of these three do you favor more?
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Watching the order book all day, the low-buy orders are all stuck at key positions, but not even a ripple has been triggered. In the current market, indicators show severe overselling, and some people insist on chasing rebounds in this illiquid environment, thinking it's cost-effective. It's all fake demand. Looking closely at the depth chart, the buy orders are all just empty setups; as soon as a large order slightly dumps, there's no decent support below—it's all retail stop-loss orders. At times like this, whoever rushes to enter at this position is just a liquidity provider guinea pig for the market. Since the main force doesn't want to move, I'll continue to stay out and watch the show. Don't mistake patience for missing out on the market; in a zero-sum game, the worst is to be overconfident. $ENA These days I think we need to be a bit cautious.
On October 5th, about 3.03 billion ENA held by StablecoinX will have their original lockup restrictions lifted, which is close to 20% of the total ENA supply. However, these coins cannot be freely dumped after unlocking; subsequent sales and transfers are still restricted and require prior approval processes. TokenPost
① The market has already started trading the "unlocking pressure" in advance
ENA dropped about 6% at one point today. Additionally, on October 2nd, about 40.63 million ENA will be normally unlocked, valued at approximately 11 million USD. CoinMarketRank
So the recent weakness in ENA does not necessarily mean Ethena's fundamentals suddenly deteriorated; it’s more that the market is pricing in potential selling pressure.
② But the figure of 3 billion coins looks scary and should not be directly interpreted as "20% supply will be dumped immediately"
This batch of ENA held by StablecoinX still belongs to Treasury assets.
If they really want to sell, prior notice is required, and Ethena Foundation has corresponding review and purchase arrangements.
So I won’t short-sell just because of the "20% unlocking".
What really matters is whether there are actual large transfers, exchange deposits, or sales after October 5th. Pluang
③ I am currently more on the sidelines, waiting for the unlocking to materialize
This kind of ENA market situation can easily lead to two outcomes:
The market preemptively absorbs the negative impact, and after the actual unlocking on October 5th, there is little selling pressure, so the price starts to recover;
or after unlocking, there really are continuous large transfers, then the previous concerns will be realized.
Therefore, I won’t rush to bottom-fish now, nor will I heavily short just because of the "20% unlocking".
In the next few days trading ENA, I will watch one thing: whether the unlocked coins really flow into the market.
The unlocking on paper is not necessarily selling pressure.
Only the coins that actually enter exchanges are.Nonfarm payrolls were ridiculously weak, BTC directly broke through 79,000, US stock SPCX opened with a sharp 4-point surge, but only SNDK is still stuck in place. Once the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped significantly. Some are calling for a rate cut, but I think that's wishful thinking; at most, the rate hike expectations have cooled off, but a rate cut is still far off.
This BTC surge is about eighty to ninety percent related to the nonfarm data. SanDisk not rising probably means the previous positive news has been fully priced in. The big rocket caught the tech sector's broad rally plus positive news, lucky.
A drop in rate hike expectations is good, but an actual rate cut would be the real big gift. For now, just enjoy the breather and don't get carried away.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 🌼Who can keep customers in the business of transaction fees, meow?
$UNI has a change worth a close look, meow.
The StablePair mechanism introduced in September adjusts fees based on the trade direction and the degree of price deviation.
For the same token swap, trades that are beneficial or detrimental to the liquidity pool will no longer be charged the same fee.
The goal is to leave more earnings for those providing liquidity.
If they are willing to stay, the pool can deepen, making large swaps easier to execute.
But this is an improvement in product competitiveness; the earnings primarily go to liquidity providers and cannot be counted as token holding dividends.
$BICO helps applications complete complex operations, meow.
In the existing cooperation with AskGina, AI understands what users want to do, while the underlying tools handle cross-chain operations, fee payments, and retries after failures.
This division of labor is quite practical.
Users want things done, not just to hear a nice analysis.
Going forward, success rate and usage cost will be key; only if operations are hassle-free will developers be willing to use it long-term.
$LINK does more than just deliver price data on-chain, meow.
Its SVR mechanism recovers part of the liquidation-related revenue, allowing lending protocols and oracle networks to earn income.
This can be understood as adding a feature to data services that helps clients retain earnings.
This logic is more concrete than simply increasing the number of partnerships.
However, this type of income is affected by liquidation activity; I will watch the long-term performance and not treat income from a single sharp fluctuation as normal.The first bite of last night's non-farm payroll was just finished, but the second bite got completely choked.
Tonight, whether it's crypto or US stocks, the initial reaction was a rush to move first. And then got choked (some influencers even said to close short positions, close short positions.
I got hit the hardest.
In the crypto circle:
BTC: 87,000 → around 85,000 (rallied but couldn't hold)
ETH: 2770 → around 2700 (gave back some gains)
SOL: 123.6 → around 120 (followed the pullback)
In the US stock circle:
MU: 1108 → around 1093 (most of the post-non-farm gains were given back)
SNDK: continued to fall from a high level (weaker than MU to begin with)
(The first bite was about rate cuts, the second bite started to factor in growth)
So non-farm payroll did have an impact, but the first bite was taken too quickly.
On the crypto side, BTC, ETH, and SOL surged first; US stocks MU and SNDK also moved first, then the market started recalculating: is the cooling employment a rate benefit or a sign that growth is slowing?
Coincidentally, on the other side, Strive is already preparing to buy over 1270 BTC this week. (This is optimistic, not sure, but probably cautious)
While the market is recalculating, institutions are still continuing to accumulate BTC.
This second bite, indeed, is a bit choking.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK AAVE rose more than 11% today, and I think this time it's not just following the overall market.
① Aave V4's stock-collateralized lending is starting to gain volume
Aave V4's tokenized stock lending market on Base has deposits exceeding $9 million.
This volume isn't particularly large yet, but the significance lies in Aave beginning to expand from "crypto asset lending" to "stock + RWA lending."
If more stock assets come in later, Aave's market won't be limited to just ETH, stablecoins, and other old markets. Altcoin Buzz
② Whales are also buying $AAVE with real money
On October 1st, a wallet bought about 39,018 AAVE from Kraken, worth approximately $6.3 million.
The day before, two wallets swapped about $4.26 million worth of WBTC for AAVE.
A single whale purchase alone doesn't mean much, but several large buy orders coinciding with V4 data growth naturally lead the market to start trading on this logic. Altcoin Buzz
③ Aave's cumulative lending has exceeded $1.1 trillion
This figure is historical cumulative, not current TVL, but at least it shows Aave is no longer a DeFi protocol surviving on narrative alone.
Now that the market is revaluing AAVE, I think it’s focusing on two things: No crash, no frenzy
Only a tense silence remains
BTC, ETH, and US stocks are all waiting
Waiting for a number that can break the deadlock
Geopolitical risks hang overhead
Crude oil moves first, gold probes
The US dollar index rises
Long-term US Treasury yields refuse to bow
Is this a pre-pricing of CPI bearishness, or just pure defense?
The answer awaits the data release
Afterwards, the October rate hike path will begin to take shape
Less than $200 million in crypto liquidations in 24 hours
Indicating leverage has retreated, and sentiment has cooled
The market is not directionless
But no one dares to take sides first
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #霍尔木兹协议未落地，油价风险再升温？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 $SUI has entered the oversold zone; a rebound and a bottom are two different things
$SUI 24h -3.74%, current price 1.1491. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 26 and 50 respectively. Oversold conditions bring rebound demand, but a rebound only indicates a sharp drop; a bottom requires the price to stop breaking the structure.
Put emotions aside first; the information given by the structure is very specific. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 1.1748, currently weak; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 1.1666, also currently weak. The short-term cycle exposes changes, while the long-term cycle limits imagination. When both align, beware of crowding; when they conflict, beware of oscillations. You can't just pick the side that favors you.
Position is more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 0.02% away from the 1-hour support at 1.1489, and about 6.05% away from resistance at 1.2186. Putting these two distances together allows you to see which side requires more evidence. Looking only at price changes can easily mistake the space already traveled as not yet started.
What I care about more is not guessing the next candlestick, but which condition will force me to change my view. Judgments without invalidation conditions are just emotions with a different expression. Let the key levels give results first, then talk about direction more honestly. Do you think oversold is enough to change the rhythm, or must we wait for the structure to stop making new lows? The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.Forced liquidation just above 90,000, is it really safe?
Brothers, how far can $BTC go in this wave?
The market just started to surge again, and some are even shouting 100,000 tonight. If it really goes straight to 100,000, my short position will be in trouble.
Today I really lost badly; this is the worst day in a month and a half.
Originally this position was profitable, I could have just taken the profit and been done with it. But I got greedy and gave all the gains back, now I'm even down 500U.
I just added some margin again, currently the forced liquidation price is just above 90,000.
But honestly, I still don't feel confident at this level.
Especially today, the US September nonfarm payrolls only increased by 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, the data is clearly weak, yet BTC once surged near 87,000.
Now the most troubling question is:
Can I still hold the short position?
If I keep holding, where should I set the forced liquidation price to avoid being so passive?
What do you all think?📉 $ARX – Short Signal! 🔻
Current: 0.2615 (-7.95%)
Why Short?
· Rejection from 0.2958 high
· SAR bearish (0.2885) ⚠️
· -7.95% today — momentum down
· 30D +106% still overextended
Trade Setup:
· Entry: 0.2610 – 0.2620
· SL: 0.2700
· T1: 0.2500
· T2: 0.2300
⚠️ Strict SL! Risk 2-3% only.
💬 Short or Long? What's your move? 👇🎢 Even the green-haired trader got thrown around by the market!
This trading session was a full-on roller coaster — huge win, painful losses, and 100x leverage making every move hit harder. 😵💫
📉 $ETH Long: Entered at 2,702.85 → exited at 2,687.77
80 ETH position, ending with -1,327.69 USDT (-61.40%). Held for hours before finally cutting the loss.
#DailyOrbit Regarding $WLD, I’d rather first ask a somewhat uncomfortable question: Are we seeing a genuine trend now, or is it a trend whose price has already been prematurely overextended?
Currently, the 1-hour trading volume is only 0.17 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, with both 1-hour and 4-hour charts showing strength. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires confirmation from the next candlestick.
The current price is 0.5588, about 12.22% above the 1-hour support at 0.4905, and about 5.60% below the resistance at 0.5901. Looking at both distances together gives a more realistic risk assessment than focusing on just one upward or downward candlestick.
$WLD price is moving, but volume hasn’t confirmed this move, which is more noteworthy than the 24-hour +12.64% change.
My conclusion is currently only conditional. My observation line is clear: only by reclaiming and holding 0.5901 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; if it falls below 0.4905, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.4663. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.5901 is only a distant reference for now, not a preset target.
This is not hindsight justification: in the next round, I will continue to verify 0.5901 and 0.4905, recording when conditions are met and reviewing when they fail.
Do you trust the current direction more, or do you think the low volume will cause this move to be quickly reversed?
The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle Bull.Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$2Z Leading accounts are more bullish, but position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio is 1.19, position ratio is 0.63; the difference in the proportion of the two types of long positions has expanded by 1.69 percentage points. There are more bullish accounts, but a long position size advantage has not yet formed.🚨 Nonfarm came out — but why isn’t crypto pumping?
A lot of traders see “positive” employment data and immediately think BTC should go up. But the market doesn’t move on the headline alone. What matters is how the data changes rate expectations, yields, and liquidity.
Here’s where things stand after the NFP reaction 👇
$BTC｜85888 BTC pushed as high as 87239, but quickly gave back the gains as macro pressure kicked in.
#DailyOrbit Last round @squidrouter oversubscribed 26x, listed 3x
This round @jumperapp oversubscribed 24x, listing ?
During interaction: cross-chain no big profit
Community round sales: cross-chain is big profitIt really was a twist of fate; I personally handed over the CT chips this time.
After trading for so long, I always thought the scariest thing was high-leverage liquidation, but only this time did I realize that what can truly break a trader is often a moment when discipline suddenly slips.
At 3:35 AM on October 2nd, I had clearly set the rule for this CT trade — stop loss if it falls 5% below the previous low, otherwise hold on.
But at that exact point, I acted first and closed everything.
Looking at the +86.42% return in my account, I did make a profit, but I couldn’t feel happy at all.
Meanwhile, MEGA grabbed a 215% return, pocketing 1837U, but that profit couldn’t make up for the regret after selling CT too early.
The direction was right, the logic was sound, but in the end, I lost to my own hands.
The hardest part of trading is never understanding the market, but whether you can strictly follow the rules you wrote down once the market really moves.
This time, it wasn’t losing money that taught me a lesson, but selling too early.
The dream of getting rich can wait; first, I need to regain my discipline. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly low, why am I still holding short positions?
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls came in at 29,000, expected 90,000, a direct surprise. The rate hike expectations dropped significantly, the market got excited, BTC surged to 87,000, and ETH also rallied. But I'm still holding shorts, why? Because the current risks are not in rate hikes, but elsewhere.
BTC surged to 87,000, up over 3%, looking strong. But the range from 87,000 to 90,000 is all previous trapped positions; it's not easy to break through all at once. The nonfarm surprise is indeed positive, but once the good news is fully priced in, it turns negative. Also, oil prices remain high, the situation in Iran is tense, the Strait of Hormuz could be closed at any time, if oil prices spike, inflation returns, and rate hike expectations rise again. The Trump midterm elections are also approaching, policies can change suddenly, uncertainty is very high.
I still hold my ETH short at 2671, now around 2750, a small loss. But I'm not worried, ETH is weaker than BTC, there's strong resistance at 2800 above, it can't break through. ETF funds have been flowing out, the ecosystem has no new stories, the rise is just following the market. The positive impact of the nonfarm data has been digested, it still needs to fall.
ZEC's privacy coin logic still holds, but this coin is very volatile, nonfarm data has limited impact on it, mainly it's a funds-driven speculation, small positions are fine for playing.
In summary: the nonfarm surprise is positive, but only short-term. The real risks lie in oil prices, Iran situation, and Trump's midterm elections. Without resolving these uncertainties, the market won't trend unilaterally. Holding shorts, waiting for the positive news to be fully digested before reassessing.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $CARDS is still within the range, but the position is weak
The current price is still inside the range, but positioned lower. In the short term, first watch if the lower boundary of the range can hold. The recent high and low points in the past few hours are 0.2979 / 0.2638 USDT, and the just closed 5-minute candlestick is at 0.2684 USDT.
However, the recent 15-minute volume has not significantly increased, indicating there is no intense battle here yet, so for now, consider it a weak consolidation.
If the closing price later breaks below the range low, this weak position judgment will be confirmed; if it climbs back above the range high, then the assessment will need to be revised.Brothers, I really can't stay idle at home.
I originally planned to rest for two days, but I couldn't help but deposit 8000 yuan and get back to work.
But as soon as I got back, I got a lesson...
Just now, I was too quick when opening a position. I intended to open a full position, but accidentally opened an isolated margin position. Within just five minutes, the position was forcibly liquidated!
I really have to admit it, this loss was purely my own operational mistake, no one else to blame. I was too hasty opening the position and didn't even confirm the margin mode clearly. Losing out is my own fault.
Now I've reopened a full position on $ETH, planning to hold for a while.
This time I won't mess around blindly; at least I'll wait until I make 200U profit before exiting, otherwise going in and out like this is just too costly.
Alright brothers, that's all for today. Let's see how ETH moves next!$BTC just taught the shorts another lesson 😂
In 24 hours, short positions lost $276 million directly. Looking at my own position, I suddenly feel my losses aren't that special after all, since there's a whole group of brothers paying tuition together ahead of me.
$BTC is still hovering above 86K, but shorts have been cleared out batch by batch. The funniest part is, the profits I made from going long before have been largely given back by my own recent trades.
This market is really interesting. When the wind is favorable, you feel like you've found the secret to wealth; once the direction reverses, you instantly go from "trading expert" to "liquidity provider."
In fact, in investing, it often comes down not to who is smarter, but who can endure time. Patience isn't about waiting foolishly; it's about actively choosing to cooperate with time, not fighting against it every day.
Learning requires repetition, change requires accumulation, and many things need time to settle. Yet nowadays, everyone chases instant returns, wishing to buy today and start counting money tomorrow.
The more impatient you are, the easier it is to chase highs and sell lows; the more you try to catch every fluctuation, the more likely you are to give back the money you've earned to the market.
So it's really okay to slow down; the market never pays out early just because you're in a hurry. 😂
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 📊 Q4 Crypto Watch: Signals Matter More Than Price Levels
$BTC → Around 85K is a sentiment threshold. Don’t just ask "Will it hold?"; watch if spot trading volume expands on pullbacks and if ETFs have continuous net inflows. If volume and price diverge, be cautious even during rebounds.
$ETH → The 2.7K area is entering a validation phase. Net staking inflows, L2 fees, and on-chain activity are more valuable references than just drawing lines. Without ecosystem support, prices tend to fluctuate.
$SOL → Activity is heating up 🔥, but heat and risk often come together. Focus on perpetual funding rates, open interest, and DEX volume to prevent crowded longs from being liquidated.
In short: The Q4 playbook isn’t about guessing tops or bottoms but waiting for confirmation. Use volume to judge authenticity, ETFs to track incremental flows, and open interest to gauge leverage heat.
👀 Which signal tops your watchlist?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $FIL This sideways consolidation is grinding people down. The halving countdown is ticking, yet the market seems unaware. Neither up nor down, lukewarm, as if waiting for someone to make the first mistake.
Don't treat the halving as a magic bullet. The crypto market trades on expectations, not calendars. The rise that should happen has already happened early; by the time the halving actually occurs, it's often just a sell-off to realize profits. When the fireworks go off and the lights come on, the key is whose hands the chips have changed to.
Miners are more honest than candlesticks. If earnings don't cover electricity costs, they shut down; once the machines stop, the coins remain. On-chain chips—those averaging down, those holding on stubbornly—are layered. The question remains: where is the incremental capital? Pumping the market with slogans?
This kind of sideways movement now may not be bottoming but more like fishing—fishing for the obsession that "halving must lead to a rise." The day it lands might not be a rocket launch but a guillotine.
Let the bullets fly a little longer. At this $FIL level, going up requires real money; going down only needs a shift in sentiment. I'm not advising you to buy or sell; profits and losses are your own responsibility. I just feel—the stage is set, don't rush to be the lead actor. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The current market gives me a slightly bullish feeling. Bitcoin and Ethereum are rising in sync, and after a pullback, they still hold steady, which structurally looks relatively healthy. However, tonight's non-farm payrolls are the short-term key; before the data is released, I don't want to recklessly add positions. Previously, all $BTC short positions have been closed, leaving only one $ETH short position as a hedge.
The biggest pressure right now is not the ETF, but the high interest rate environment. The higher the risk-free yield, the easier it is for risk asset valuations to be compressed. If the non-farm data is weak, the market will increase bets on a "pause in rate hikes," which is somewhat bullish for crypto; if the data is strong and another rate hike is possible within the year, it would be bearish. Considering the PCE performance, I subjectively lean toward the data being moderately positive tonight.
But subjective expectations cannot replace trading discipline. There is still much uncertainty before the news is released, so I choose to wait and see, acting only when the results become clear. At this stage, caution is more important than direction. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 "Advice for You: The Two Critical Levels of ETH"
ETH is currently at 2700.
Above 2830 is the liquidation zone for 1.062 billion shorts. Below 2565 is the death line for 1.238 billion longs. A 10% rise means a short squeeze; a 5% drop means a deep pit for longs.
The October 6 testnet launch is either a "positive catalyst landing" or "selling the fact," no one knows. But what you do know is: testnet tokens have no value, the mainnet launch date is undecided, and ETFs are already selling.
Don't chase highs based on testnet expectations. Wait for the October 6 launch and see if it can hold 2700. If it holds, 2830 is the next gate; if not, 2565 awaits.
(The above does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks; only the living have the right to talk about the future.)
$BTC $ETH $CT #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 $ETH has taken off! This wave's direction is right on target, aiming straight for 3000. What price do you see?
$BTC also surged to new highs, but only ZEC buried me 💩
Live trading record 📝
ETH: 20x full position long, opened at 2690, marked at 2753, floating profit 47%. 15-minute moving averages diverging, MACD red bars expanding, bullish momentum is building.
ZEC: also 20x full position long, opened at 1430, current price 1378, floating loss 72%. Short it and it rises, long it and it falls, completely opposite moves.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls and rate hike expectations are the focus. ETF funds are flowing out, US Treasury yields remain high, macro pressure hasn't eased. ETH is strong short-term but watch out for data reversals. ZEC is a typical weak altcoin, all funds are moving to mainstream, no one supports privacy coins, rebound is difficult.
Market is fragmented; picking the right coin is more important than predicting the overall market. Altcoins have far more uncertainty than mainstream ones.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 On October 1st, while others were stuck in traffic watching the crowds, I was repeatedly rubbed down by the dog whales in ZEC, playing a 30x leverage roller coaster!
At 22:01, ZEC opened long at 1393.8 with 30x leverage, unexpectedly dropping all the way to 1363.26, a -67.52% move, single trade loss of 3199U, 49 minutes left me completely stunned.
At 22:50, I tearfully closed the position, waiting for a rebound near 1382, then decisively reversed to 30x short.
ZEC once dropped to 1330 then pulled back, taking profit at 1368.5 in the early morning and exiting, but unexpectedly after closing it continued to drop towards 1300.
After all these operations, the final daily profit was +2800U.
Now it’s back to sideways around 1380...
This wave really is: can’t play anymore, can’t play anymore! Today’s bullish candle looks more like a combination of softer rate-hike expectations + short covering rather than a fully confirmed trend reversal. BTC has reclaimed the $85K area and is now trading around $85.8K–$86.3K, with roughly a 2%–3% daily gain. The macro backdrop is also helping: 🏦 Fed officials have indicated that there is still room to wait for more economic data before making another rate move. 📉 The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has eased from around 5.3% toward 5.2%, taking some pI think the WLD coin is no longer reliable for investment..! From a realistic perspective, it always follows the speculative value of AI..! When placing a Buy order, it drops, falling 10% to 14%, then recovers only 4% to 7% before dropping again; switching to a Sell order is the opposite, dropping 4% to 6%..! When it rises, it goes up 12% to 18%..! The timeline stretches over more than a week, making it suffocating..! I think WLD has no main mechanism to stabilize the market..!🚨 NONFARM JUST DROPPED — AND THE NUMBER IS UGLY.
Expected: 90K
Actual: 29K 😳
And it gets worse.
The previous reading was revised from 162K → 133K, while July was revised from +21K → -10K. That’s roughly 60K of downward revisions across two months.
Unemployment also came in at 4.2%, above the 4.1% expected.
This isn’t the kind of labor-market report the Fed wanted to see.
#DailyOrbit Is this non-farm data really accurate? August exceeded expectations, September was far below expectations. The market really gets whatever information it needs. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
I placed a stop loss on an #eth long at 2655 to see if it can hold!🚨 NON-FARM IS OUT — AND I’M SHORTING BTC! 📉🔥
Great news, great news! 😮💨
September Non-Farm Payrolls came in below expectations, rate-hike expectations are cooling, and rate-cut hopes are picking up.
Sounds bullish, right?
But I still want to short. 👀
BTC has been climbing since the morning session, with ETF net inflows reportedly topping $1B. But after the data dropped, BTC still couldn’t cleanly break the previous high.
#DailyOrbit The whales were moving the price like a yo-yo, and I was sitting there trying to guess every move. 🕙 21:48 – 22:35 | The first disaster ZEC was hovering around $1,425, and I thought the support was holding. So I jumped into a leveraged long. Bad decision. Within roughly 45 minutes, ZEC slipped toward $1,390, and my position took a serious hit. One impulsive entry and suddenly several thousand dollars of unrealized loss was staring back at me. 💀 That was the moment I realized I wasn't reading t$WLD surged 17% today, returning to $0.57.
When emphasizing WLD repeatedly around $0.43 earlier, the core logic was that this level was already low enough, and World’s real product expansion was just beginning.
Recently, World Money has officially launched in over 150 countries, integrating stablecoin payments, trading, earnings, and World ID all into one app.
Now the price has risen from $0.43 to $0.57, increasing by more than 30% in a short time.
More importantly, $0.57 has once again hit the Day 43 Starting capital: 7U Ultimate target: 100M Current account: 4,250U Protected capital: 2,750U Available balance: 1,500U+ The holiday has made the market noticeably quieter. A lot of major players appear to be less active, liquidity feels thinner, and some of the bigger moves may only become clearer once normal market activity returns. Here’s what I’m watching: 1. $BTC Bitcoin finally pushed out of the recent triangle structure. The breakout looks interesting, but I’m still watching whetherThe September employment report came in noticeably weaker than the market was expecting: 🇺🇸 Payroll growth: +31K vs roughly +95K forecast 📉 Unemployment: 4.3% vs 4.1% previously 🔻 Previous payrolls: prior months were revised lower by around 55K combined 🏦 Fed expectations: Markets pulled back further on the possibility of another October rate hike 📈 BTC: pushed through the $86K area and briefly tested around $88K after the release The market reaction is pretty straightforward: Weak jobs →