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Explosive! Even with fireworks blazing again, it can't fill the cash flow hole—I'm betting on a "crash" for SpaceX's earnings report!
After the U.S. market close on October 20, SpaceX will release its first full Q3 earnings report since going public. The market was just ignited by the "flying Roadster," with sentiment at a high, but my prediction for the betting market is cold-blooded: buy Yes.
Don't get me wrong, flying cars are cool, but that's Tesla's narrative, not SpaceX's profit statement. Yet the capital market has already valued SpaceX at a price-to-sales ratio once exceeding 100 times. The problem is, looking at the old books: Starlink is the only consistently profitable segment, Starship is still burning through R&D expenses, with quarterly EBITDA losses exceeding 100 million; and behind new stories like AI computing power, quarterly capital expenditure is expected to reach as high as $19.3 billion, with free cash flow potentially suffering over $10 billion in consumption.
The market expects Q3 revenue between $12.9 billion and $13.8 billion. At this stage of massive investment, achieving both high revenue growth and significant profit improvement is as difficult as making a rocket save money while flying.
Concept-driven momentum might push the stock price before the market opens, but fireworks of sentiment fear hard-core cash flow the most. As long as the earnings report shows even slightly conservative numbers on Starship progress or AI computing monetization, or operating losses exceed expectations, the pressure to pull back will immediately surface.
So I won't chase this wave of hype. A hundredfold price-to-sales ratio relies not on fireworks, but on solid financial realization. This time, I'm betting Yes. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $SPCX If even 1,000 U can be swept back and forth within a few days, then the problem is mostly not the market but the position size and timing. Have you ever had moments when you clearly saw the right direction but were forced out by volatility first? Reviewing my records these past two days, I saw two position screenshots and felt a slight tightening in my chest. BTC was repeatedly pulled back and forth within a range, and I used nearly full position to hold high-leverage contracts. Stop losses were triggered again and again, and my principal was slowly drained bit by bit, losing over 1,000 U in a few days. The hardest part wasn’t losing money, but that the market never really broke out of the sideways trend; it just oscillated horizontally, and I was already worn out with no strength to fight back. 🫧 This experience made me rethink sideways markets. When the direction is unclear, prices move back and forth, seemingly offering many opportunities, but in reality, it tests the leverage’s tolerance for error. High leverage amplifies normal noise into fatal swings; setting stop losses too tight gets triggered, too loose and you hesitate to act, ending up with emotional liquidation. What’s truly being tested is the tolerance for volatility, not the judgment of direction. There is also a bullish path: once BTC breaks out with volume above the range, sentiment quickly warms up, and altcoins’ elasticity returns. But the risk is that false breakouts and wicks often happen first, and high-leverage positions can’t wait for the real breakout. A more hidden layer is that continuous small losses make people rush to recover, increasing position sizes and completely messing up the timing. My adjustment is: lower leverage, control single-trade risk to a level where I can sleep peacefully, reduce trading frequency during sideways periods, and save bullets for after trend confirmation. It’s not hard to see the right move; the hard part is surviving until that moment. ✨ What do you most want to change first now? $152 million withdrawn from ETFs, don't rush to label institutions as "running away"
BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $82.39 million, ETH spot ETFs have had outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of $69.68 million. The numbers look alarming on the surface, but breaking down the structure, the outflows are mainly concentrated in a few products, more like portfolio rebalancing rather than a collective institutional retreat.
Focus on three key signals:
✅ BTC outflows are concentrated in a single product, which does not indicate a shift in overall risk appetite
✅ Although ETH ETFs have continuous outflows, the perpetual contract funding rate has not turned negative, and leveraged funds are not yet panicking
✅ $152 million is not large relative to the total ETF market size; it just happens to fall at a point where sentiment shifts from optimistic to hesitant
This round of outflows looks more like a short-term expectation realization followed by consolidation, not a trend reversal. As long as derivative funding rates remain neutral and positions do not collapse sharply, it is a rhythm adjustment. If funding rates stabilize and ETFs see inflows later, risk appetite will recover, and after BTC stabilizes, ETH and altcoins will have rotation opportunities.
⚠️ Risk warning: If ETH outflows persist for multiple days and perpetual funding rates turn negative, it indicates spot and leveraged funds are fleeing simultaneously, putting greater selling pressure on altcoins.
Trading approach: Do not blindly increase positions due to single-day outflows, nor be scared into selling by negative headlines. Keep a close eye on two core indicators: ETH perpetual funding rate and capital flow. Funding rates reflect the market's true sentiment. $BTC $ETH 🔭 Three observation points, from the primary market to layer two
$SPCX 144.25, down 0.85 points, Observation Point One 🚀
SpaceX's first full quarterly financial report after listing has landed, recalculating the on-chain share at 144. Previously, valuations relied on primary market rumors; now with official quarterly figures, launch costs, Starlink subscription revenue, and profits are compared item by item. Waiting for the US stock market to open to provide a real valuation anchor; weekend prices are just placeholders.
$ENA 0.18554, down 1.94 points, Observation Point Two 🌬️
Ethena's USDe synthetic dollar distributes collateral yields to token holders. The protocol is among the top in scale, but the market has always been cautious about extreme de-pegging. The 0.185 decline follows the stablecoin concept retreat; the model is not rejected, only the valuation is suppressed. Waiting for Circle's financial report to guide the stablecoin sector.
$CORE 0.01739, down 3.28 points, Observation Point Three 🟠
Core uses Bitcoin's security model as an anchor to run a DPoS public chain. Layer two competition is fierce with new chains emerging continuously. The 0.01739 price grinds slowly relying on its own ecosystem adoption. After funds return to BTC, it is left behind and cannot catch short-term sentiment.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
The Realised Cap Liquidity Cycle chart by Checkonchain is a specialized on-chain data tool used to analyze Bitcoin (BTC) bull and bear cycle transitions and capital flow conditions.
1. Explanation of Chart Indicators
This chart is composed of multiple layered data dimensions:
1. Price (gray/black thin line) and bull/bear markers: The left axis represents BTC price (logarithmic scale). Green dots indicate a Bull Market, red dots indicate a Bear Market.
2. Realized Cap (orange line): The second right axis. It does not value based on the latest transaction price but sums the valuation of each BTC (UTXO) at the price of its last on-chain transfer (i.e., the actual cost basis of the holder). It reflects the total capital truly injected into the network, excluding lost coins and speculative bubbles.
3. Liquidity areas (blue/yellow/pink regions):
· Blue: 180-day liquidity (long-term capital inflow strength, not included in this analysis)
· Yellow: 90-day liquidity (mid-term capital inflow strength, not included in this analysis)
· Pink: 30-day liquidity (short-term capital inflow strength)
4. Liquidity Index (black thick line): The far right axis (0~1). Represents the current state of the entire BTC network#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Today is Monday, October 19, the same day and week as the 1987 "Black Monday." Someone on X shouted: Will history repeat itself?
On that day in 1987, the Dow dropped 22.6%, the S&P 20.5%, wiping out $500 billion, the largest single-day drop in history. Circuit breakers were added afterward: the S&P pauses for 15 minutes if it falls 7% or 13%, and trading halts at 20%—there was no such brake in 1987.
Last week's background was very tense: the Nasdaq fell 4.5% for the week (worst since June), the S&P dropped 1.9% closing at 7659; Brent crude broke $110, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.1%, and the VIX reached 20. But Bitcoin did not follow: it held at 81180 over the weekend, ranged between 79700-84400 last week, with no panic selling.
My judgment: the market overestimates the predictive power of the "date coincidence." The fuel in 1987 was programmatic stampede and panic self-fulfillment, now locked down by circuit breakers; Kobeissi said when everyone shouts crash, expectations are already priced in. But no crash ≠ no drop: a single-day -20% is hard to repeat, but a significant Monday gap down is entirely possible.
Observation: if US stocks fall, can Bitcoin hold? It didn’t follow last week; if it still holds this time, "decoupling" will have solid evidence.
Invalidation: if the S&P triggers a -7% circuit breaker on Monday, or Bitcoin falls below $80,000 (Glassnode floor), I will be wrong.
Which side do you choose: is the date a coincidence and circuit breakers rewrite the script? Or is panic the fuel and coincidence self-fulfilling?
$BTC
#BlackMonday39thAnniversary##Last week, U.S. tech stocks experienced a significant correction, with the Nasdaq dropping about 4.5% cumulatively, marking its worst weekly performance since June. However, this correction was not simply profit-taking; it reflected growing market concerns about inflation, interest rates, and the return on investment in the AI industry. The AI sector had previously been a key driver of gains in U.S. stocks, but as data center construction and computing power investments continue to expand, the market is starting to focus on another issue: how long will it take for such massive capital expenditures to translate into profits? Some companies rely on debt financing for expansion, and if financing costs rise or future revenues fall short of expectations, valuations built on high growth expectations will be impacted. AI infrastructure company CoreWeave’s stock price plunged last week, reflecting market worries about the financing capabilities and investment returns of related companies. Additionally, U.S. inflation data poured cold water on the market; the September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, with energy prices still a major driver, but consumer demand remains resilient. This means the economy has not yet stalled, but inflationary pressures remain uncontrolled, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. If expectations for rate cuts continue to be delayed, corporate financing costs and the opportunity cost for investors holding risk assets will remain high. For tech stocks that have seen large gains and high valuations earlier, this is clearly an unfavorable environment. Naturally, Bitcoin will also be affected. Although Bitcoin has a long-term narrative independent of traditional finance, in short-term trading, it remains highly influenced by liquidity #Institutional funds weaken, who will see inflows first, BTC or ETH?
BTC sees institutional funds returning earlier than ETH.
BTC: Cyclical outflows, short return path. Outflows are mainly due to high interest rates and rising US Treasury yields, triggered by macro conditions causing passive deleveraging; with a large asset base, October outflows accounted for only about 0.2% of total ETF assets, IBIT still has intermittent net inflows, and whale selling pressure is also easing. Once interest rates stabilize, the resistance to fund inflows is minimal.
ETH: Structural bleeding, slower recovery. ETH ETFs have continuous net redemptions, highly concentrated in BlackRock's ETHA (accounting for about 93% of outflows in a single week), indicating a systematically weak willingness to increase allocation through compliant ETF channels. Before the inertia of continuous redemptions is broken, it is difficult to confirm a reversal in funding.
Same catalysts, different thresholds. Both require "long-term interest rates stabilizing + ETF net inflows resuming," but BTC is condition-triggered, while ETH needs to first repair the channel itself.
In short: BTC's outflow is a "pause," ETH's outflow is "bleeding"; existing funds returning will prioritize BTC with the least resistance, and ETH will likely lag.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC U Sister 10.19 Monday Big Cake $BTC Thought Process
Entry: Rebound in the 82600‑83100 range, 4H shows a long upper shadow stagnation pattern, volume can't keep up, confirm pressure then enter short position
Stop loss: Effectively hold above 83455, break through resistance zone, abandon short position and exit
First take profit target: 82100
Second take profit target: 81600
Market logic: This round started a rebound from a low position, which is a correction after a decline, not a trend reversal. The previous high near 82900 above is a strong resistance level, price rebound near this area tends to release selling pressure. Do not chase shorts at the current price, wait for rebound to the resistance zone and stagnation signal before entering. Focus on support at 81500 below; if support is broken, the bearish space will further open.
1. Explanation of the Chart Meaning
This is a chart of Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Realised Profit/Loss Momentum.
Unlike Short-Term Holders (STH), Long-Term Holders (LTH) are investors holding positions for more than 155 days, representing the "smart money" and firm base capital in the market.
Legend and Thresholds:
Gray line (Price): Bitcoin spot price.
Green bars (Profit Momentum): Momentum of profits realized by LTH.
Red bars (Loss Momentum): Momentum of losses realized by LTH.
Black line (Momentum Oscillator) and background color: Momentum oscillator. Light green background (+ve Momentum) indicates accelerating profit realization (distribution phase);
Light pink background (-ve Momentum) indicates accelerating loss realization (panic phase).
2. How to Use the Chart (How to Interpret)
LTH behavior is shrewd and patient, acting as the opposing force to retail investors.
Macro top signal (distribution): When the bull market is in its late stage, price stagnates at a high level, green profit momentum bars show extreme spikes, and the black line runs high in the green area. This indicates that the "smart money" is massively taking profits at highs, injecting excess supply into the market.
Macro bottom signal (capitulation): At the end of a bear market, when prices crash, red loss momentum bars deepWhen Bitcoin trembled, how many altcoins in the hands of brothers were directly halved? Just when the whole network was panicking at midnight, I looked at the data and found that these several coins that surged early on not only didn't see retail investors running away, but they were crazily adding positions! Don't rush to bottom-fish; rushing in now is just being cannon fodder:
First, look at $ZEC, the veteran coin is too wild, the daily chart surged from over 200 all the way to over 1600! After a midnight dip to 1048, it quickly pulled back to 1169. Looking at the 4-hour data, the long-short account ratio is around 1.35, funding rate favors longs, bulls are still holding hard, but this old coin's shakeouts are extremely brutal, so don't blindly chase.
Next, look at $HYPE: the absolute hot topic recently, daily chart surged to 97 then fell back, dropped to 76 and pulled back to 79. Notice the 4-hour long-short ratio, it soared directly to around 2.3! It's all retail investors frantically bottom-fishing. The open interest hasn't kept up, indicating all retail investors are holding the positions, the rebound lacks volume and is easily targeted for a precise blow-up by manipulative whales.
Finally, look at $UNI: the old DeFi leader, daily chart went from 2.3 up to nearly 11, now corrected down to 7.2. The data is really outrageous, the 4-hour long-short ratio surged from 1.1 to break through 2.0! Retail investors' enthusiasm to catch the falling knife is very strong, open interest is falling from a high level, once it breaks the midnight support at 6.8, a chain stampede could happen anytime.
Summary: The market is still bottoming out, these coins have good elasticity but the bulls are too crowded. Wait for the shakeout to finish and the long-short ratio to drop before considering.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 At 6 a.m. this morning, as soon as the market opened, US stock futures started trading, and volatility arrived right on time! Crude oil experienced a short-term flash crash, directly dragging Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH into a rapid short-term rebound, pulling back to around 82,500 and 2,423 respectively. The core catalyst for this oil price plunge was Trump once again unable to hold back; he posted the latest news on Russia-Ukraine peace talks just before the market opened, stating that significant progress is being made in Russia-Ukraine peace and hostage negotiations, and based on this, new sanctions against Russia are temporarily postponed. Zelensky also confirmed discussions on subsequent diplomatic steps. But my view is: although verbal expectations have pushed oil prices down and eased pressure on the crypto market, the situation is still far from fully stabilized. Both sides talk peace verbally, but the battlefield was still fiercely bombing energy facilities over the weekend, with even the oil terminal in Saint Petersburg set on fire by drones. The so-called energy ceasefire has not truly taken effect. Additionally, spot ETFs still saw net outflows in the last trading day, and off-exchange institutions have not yet made a large-scale return. So my judgment is that I am not as bearish as a few days ago; at least the support above 80,000 has been validated. But for now, I expect a range-bound fluctuation between 80.6k and 82.6k. After these rounds of turmoil, the market still needs much more time to consolidate its chips.【HYPE has dropped 20%, entering a pullback zone worth watching】
$HYPE has fallen about 22% from the high near $98. Analysts' bullish sentiment ranks first among mainstream crypto assets, deviating from the average sentiment by 2.3 standard deviations. One is dropping sharply, the other is very optimistic—this contrast is definitely worth monitoring.
HYPE's confidence isn't just based on storytelling. About 99% of qualified trading fees from Hyperliquid go into a fund to buy back HYPE, and the cumulative buyback scale is already quite substantial. The more active the platform trading, the stronger the buyback support, which is the biggest difference from tokens that rely purely on sentiment-driven speculation.
Buybacks don't guarantee capital protection. If trading volume declines, buyback strength may weaken; token releases by the team can also bring potential selling pressure. Analysts are unanimously bullish, but one should be cautious that expectations might already be too high, and there may not be much surprise when positive news is realized.
HYPE can be placed on a watchlist—don't rush to bottom-fish just because of the drop. If fees and buybacks remain resilient, prices stabilize, and sustained buying appears, this pullback looks more like an opportunity; if prices continue to weaken and buybacks can't absorb selling pressure, it means the market hasn't bottomed yet. I am optimistic about its business model, but the bottom needs to be formed by the market itself.Overnight bounce to $82.5K (19 Oct) and the market's real fight isn't CPI anymore — it's #StrategyOpposesMSCI If MSCI kicks digital-asset treasury firms out of indexes, billions in passive flows vanish; if they stay, the bid stays. $BTC holding $80K through all of it says the market isn't scared. I was wrong on $87.4K timing — $84K is still the wall. Invalidation: daily close under $80K. Does MSCI exclusion even matter for crypto, or is this pure equity noise?$ZEC surged sharply to around 1170. Personally, I think this rally is just bulls trying to unwind some positions; those going long should know when to stop and secure profits. The overall trend is downward, after all, an altcoin can't support such a high price. Right now, it's just launching some ambiguous concepts to attract attention and stabilize the price! But because the contract is ruthless, longs and shorts around the 1150 level will be mercilessly squeezed back and forth!#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Netflix's Q3 2026 direct membership subscription revenue (excluding ad revenue, only counting the subscription fees paid by users): As more new and existing users migrate to the lower-priced ad-supported membership tier, the overall ARPU has been dragged down. Although the total number of paying members is still growing, the growth rate of direct membership revenue has been suppressed and has not increased proportionally with the member count. Advertising is a separate incremental revenue stream and is not included in this direct membership revenue. In other words, the biggest pressure on direct membership revenue now is not user loss, but the "price being pushed down"—volume up, price weak.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus $APR has been bearish for the past four days. On October 23, the cliff unlock scale approached 47% of the already unlocked circulating supply, with selling pressure concentrated in this current week. Within 24 hours, the price dropped sharply from 0.0404 to 0.02279, a volatility of 77.3%, and now 0.03154 is stuck in the middle. Long positions were liquidated for $690,000, more than twice the short positions. Bulls who caught the rebound during the sharp drop were washed out first; no one is willing to support the price before the unlock. The funding rates for three periods are all positive, just to be taken as background information. We backtested events where the unlock volume exceeded 10% of circulation: in the seven days before the unlock, about three-quarters of the events underperformed the broader market, with consistent direction in the samples before and after. $APR is currently right in this window. The moving averages on the chart show a bearish alignment and the rebound is on low volume, matching this rhythm. In the next four days, it will most likely operate near the lower range between 0.02279 and 0.0404; breaking below 0.02279 will open up further downside space. The condition to turn bullish is to retake 0.0404 before the unlock. After the unlock day, backtests show no stable direction, so we will reassess based on the new market conditions then.1. Risk of advertising business underperformance: Advertising packages are the core growth driver, but if ad fill rates and ad unit prices do not increase as expected, advertising revenue will struggle to meet the company's optimistic internal projections, directly reducing profits.
2. Rigid content amortization costs: Q4 is the peak period for content launches, leading to increased content amortization expenses that will erode operating profit margins; content costs are rigid expenses with limited flexibility for reduction.
3. Negative exchange rate impact: With the majority of revenue coming from overseas, a stronger US dollar will translate into reduced overseas revenue and profits.
4. Membership growth ceiling: In mature markets, user saturation means most new members choose low-priced ad-supported packages, resulting in lower average revenue per member (ARM) and limited profit contribution from membership growth.
5. Historically optimistic company guidance: Netflix management has tended to provide optimistic guidance in the past, with actual results often falling slightly short of their own targets.Tesla's stock dropped 7.3% the week before the earnings report; I won't preemptively position.
Here's what I saw: $TSLA closed at $354.72 on Friday, down 2.1%.
The Roadster launch event pushed it up to 371 pre-market, but it was sold off after the open, hitting a low of 349.33.
Trading volume was 61.86 million shares, about 1.8 times the 20-day average.
The close was below the 50-day moving average of 359.5 and still under the 20-day line at 370.
On Wednesday after U.S. market close (early Thursday Beijing time), Q3 earnings will be released; $META reports the same night.
LSEG expects EPS to drop 14.5% year-over-year, revenue down about 1%.
Bulls are betting on Robotaxi and SpaceX merger rumors, while bears focus on declining profit margins.
My take: The positive news from the launch event but a high open followed by a decline shows buyers want real numbers from the earnings, not stories.
Until profit margins stop falling, this looks more like selling on news rather than building strength.
What I’ll do: Observe before earnings, no chasing or bottom-fishing.
Only a volume-backed move back above 370 counts as a real turnaround.
If it falls below the late September low of 345.88, this view is invalidated; no catching falling knives.
Honestly: Are you buying Tesla’s cars or Elon Musk’s story?
$TSLA $META
#特斯拉 #美股财报 #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 This morning when I woke up, the market finally showed some movement.
$BTC rose to 82416, up 1.58%; $ETH also returned to around 2422, up 1.88%. $SOL, $DOGE, $XRP, and $BCH basically all followed the rise, especially DOGE and XRP, both up nearly 3%.
But right now, I’m actually not in a hurry to call the bull market back.
A few days ago, BTC was fluctuating around 80,000, dipping as low as about 79,725, and the rebound was quite quick. My long order placed at 80,500 didn’t get filled, and looking back now, it’s a bit of a pity. But if it didn’t fill, it didn’t fill; you can’t blame yourself for not chasing just because it went up.
What’s interesting about today’s move is that it’s not just BTC rising; ETH and several major coins are moving together. If this continues, it suggests market sentiment might be recovering; but if it’s just a short-term rebound with insufficient volume, it could still fall back after the spike.
Right now, I’m focusing on two key levels: whether BTC can hold above 82,000, and whether there’s support on the pullback after the rebound. Rather than getting excited by a green open, I want to see how far this rally can really go.
Missing out isn’t scary; what’s scary is changing your trading plan temporarily because you missed out.
Is this the start of a market recovery, or just a rebound after a big drop? $ETH This short-term surge has exposed a fatal detail: although the price has risen, the bulls are quietly retreating during the rebound!
The total long positions in the market have shrunk to less than 300 million U, while on the contrary, the shorts have nearly a thousand traders pushing the short position size to nearly 1.5 billion U, with capital volume more than five times that of the bulls!
The number of large short holders is more than twice that of the longs. These giant whales dare to hold nearly 1.5 billion U in short positions during the rebound because they are confident that the heavy trapped positions at 2576 above will weigh down the bulls, who have no follow-up funds to push the price higher!
While the bulls are busy reducing positions to escape during the rebound, the large short holders are continuously adding positions to block the way. Understanding this capital flow means you can just enter the market to short and be done with it! [The RMB rises to a three-year high, is the US dollar really losing appeal this time?]
The RMB midpoint against the US dollar rose to 6.7208, the highest since February 2023. A 12 basis point increase may not seem much, but the direction behind it is more worth pondering: the RMB is strengthening.
However, don’t rush to interpret this as the US dollar falling all the way. Exchange rates are influenced simultaneously by China-US interest rate differentials, trade settlements, central bank midpoint management, and market expectations. A single-day adjustment doesn’t reveal much.
For Chinese companies, RMB appreciation compresses some export firms’ foreign exchange gains but lowers import costs; for those holding US dollar assets, converting back to RMB may yield less profit.
I think this can be seen as a signal to observe the relative strength between the US dollar and RMB, rather than a direct reason to bet on a certain asset class. Going forward, it depends on whether the RMB can continue to strengthen and whether the US dollar index weakens simultaneously. Declaring a US dollar cycle reversal based on just one day’s midpoint is still too early.Sir A has finally stopped😬 The trader who made high-leverage long positions on $BTC and $ETH and lost tens of millions in a week has cut losses and exited
Address 0x30a…6393e holds BTC long positions worth 110 million USD, with only $184 liquidation margin at the market bottom in the early morning. Fortunately, a rebound saved him from disaster. Four hours ago, he closed 1,821.84 BTC positions with a loss of 3.26 million USD, plus 1.08 million USD loss on ETH, totaling 4.34 million USD loss this round
Currently, he has opened 45.93 million USD long positions in US stocks, including $TSLA / $DRAM / $SOXL, really can't stay idle...
Portal 👉 0x30afce2f6842bf183c7e3fe7162e279ff0b6393eTrump stated that if the Republican Party wins both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the November midterm elections, every adult American citizen could receive $5,000.
On November 3, 2026, the United States will hold midterm elections:
1. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives
2. 35 seats in the Senate
3. Governors, state legislators, and local officials in multiple states
The House of Representatives is elected by district, with 218 seats constituting a majority; the Senate is elected by state, and if there is a 50-50 split, the Vice President can cast the deciding vote.
The reason the U.S. has midterm elections is because the President’s term is 4 years, House members serve 2 years, and Senators serve 6 years with about one-third up for election every two years. This staggered election system is intentional, allowing voters to readjust congressional power between two presidential elections.
Congress holds legislative, budgetary, personnel review, and administrative investigation powers. If the Republicans hold both chambers, Trump would have more room to push tax, immigration, energy, tariff, and cash distribution plans; if the Democrats take the House, the White House will face stronger budget negotiation and oversight pressure; if the Senate also changes hands, key appointments and legislative negotiations will be affected.
The President’s party often loses the House in midterm elections. From 1934 to 2022, in 23 midterm elections, the President’s party lost House seats 20 times, mainly due to governing costs, declining voter turnout, and opposition mobilization.
Therefore, the $5,000 promise is most likely just an empty check. Foldable screen pre-orders are booked until January next year, $AAPL rose 0.43% alone on Friday, I’m not chasing the hype.
Here’s what I saw: iPhone Duo opened pre-orders last Friday, the official website delivery dates quickly pushed back from 10/23, some orders are scheduled as late as late January next year; Apple calls the demand "extraordinary," starting price about $1,999.
On the same day, US tech stocks generally fell, among the seven giants only Apple closed up, closing at $343.46 (+0.43%), intraday low $340.46; Nasdaq fell 2.15% on Friday, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for eight consecutive days.
My view: Hot pre-orders ≠ immediate profit realization; longer delivery times may also be due to production bottlenecks, not just a demand myth.
Tech stocks are still cutting valuations, Apple’s counter-trend rise looks more like a safe haven narrative, not a reckless surge signal.
What I’m doing: Standing firm to observe, not chasing Monday’s rebound; if it breaks below Friday’s low of $340.46, this round of foldable screen narrative should be considered invalid first.
Wait for real delivery and user feedback after the 10/23 launch, then decide whether to change stance.
What do you think, will $AAPL first digest the pre-order heat on Monday, or continue to be the safe haven among tech stocks?
$AAPL $QQQ $NVDA
#苹果折叠屏iPhone Duo预购火爆 #费城半导体指数八连跌#纳指100周跌5.5%，芯片股八连跌 550% unrealized profit, finally only 73% left
No recovery over the weekend, $ETH kept sliding down.
How this number is calculated:
550% is the paper profit at the highest point.
If you don't sell, it's just a number.
When it drops, the numerator shrinks, the denominator stays the same.
The trigger moment:
Leveraged long positions, price breaks the line, system automatically sells.
Sell orders push the price down, the next batch gets sold too.
That's how the profit disappears.
Paper profits are never your money.
Only when you sell does it count.
#德银拟托管BTC与ETH，数字资产业务提速
#$ETH #TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins 1/5 $TSLA third quarter deliveries +1.4% quarter over quarter look good. This is not a thread. The story is mixed: United States (our estimate) -9.2% quarter over quarter, China +17.8% quarter over quarter. $TSLA traded its most profitable cars for less profitable ones in Q3 2026 (this is bad).Today's core judgment: What is worth noting today is the change in stablecoin competition: the industry is shifting from competing over issuance scale and payment networks to how reserve yields are distributed. Circle recently disclosed the income distribution structure of USDC, reflecting that stablecoin issuers are beginning to compete for exchanges and payment channels through revenue sharing. My judgment is: In the short term, institutional funds remain weak; in the long term, more attention needs to be paid to stablecoin payments and channel revenue sharing. For OKB, the business implementation of Exchange OS and OKB's value capture still need to be evaluated separately. 1. ETF funds: Three asset classes have seen synchronized outflows for the second consecutive week. The latest effective trading day is still October 16: * BTC: net outflow of $82.4 million; * ETH: net outflow of $69.7 million; * SOL: net outflow of $12.7 million. This week, the combined net outflow of the three ETFs was about $574 million, marking the second consecutive week of synchronized outflows. Among them, SOL has had net outflows for ten consecutive trading days, indicating short-term allocation is still contracting. Currently, there is no evidence that institutional risk appetite has recovered. The next verification point is the fund data after the U.S. market closes on October 19. 2. Stablecoin supply stagnates, but payment volume grows 45% Allium (an on-chain data analysis platform) Q3 data shows that the total stablecoin supply is about $305 billion, growing only 0.4% year-to-date; meanwhile, payment volume reached $482 billion, a 45% year-over-year increase, and payment transactions increased by 71%. This indicates that sta【 HODLing coins is easy, leverage is hard to bear 】
Strive CEO Matt Cole declared "permanently long on $BTC, short on the US dollar." Recently, the company spent $235 million to buy 2,822 BTC, increasing its holdings to about 35,600 BTC. However, the average purchase price of this new batch is around $83,266, and with BTC fluctuating near $82,000, they have to endure the drawdown right after buying.
Cole emphasizes the core concept of "amplifying the ratio": Strive aims to use financing structures to grow the company's BTC exposure faster than its equity. When the market rises, profits may be amplified; when it falls, financing costs, dividend obligations, and asset depreciation still come into play.
I agree with the logic of holding BTC long-term, but you can't equate company stock directly with BTC. Buying coins is a bet on Bitcoin's price going up; buying Strive also bets on its ability to keep financing and withstand drawdowns. If BTC enters a sustained bull market, this strategy might outperform; if the market remains sluggish for a long time, the so-called profit-amplifying machine might first amplify pressure on shareholders.A piece of news this morning that few people shared, but carries significant weight: an official from the Reserve Bank of Australia said there is reasonable evidence that the neutral interest rate domestically and internationally is rising. In plain terms, the benchmark for "how expensive money should be" is generally moving upward. Don't think this is just an Australian issue; this is the collective stance of central banks worldwide: it's not a temporary rate hike, but a long-term elevation of the interest rate baseline. Assets like $BTC, which have zero interest and are priced purely based on risk appetite, benefit most from a low interest rate environment. When risk-free returns worldwide are systemically rising, holding non-yielding assets while telling a ten-year story means the opportunity cost grows day by day. Those focused on whether the Fed will hike rates in October might be missing the bigger picture. Do you think this round of high interest rates is cyclical or the new normal? ETF is selling, but BTC is rising: Who exactly is absorbing this sell-off?
The US stock market hasn't opened yet, and the latest complete ETF data stops at Friday. On that day, the US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of $82.4 million; over the last five trading days, the net outflow totaled $228.4 million, which is indeed a net sell-off and not a small amount. But looking at OKX at the same time, at 9:33 Beijing time today, BTC is priced at $82,459, up about 0.98% in 24 hours, still near the upper range of the 24-hour interval.
These two sets of data are not contradictory: ETF is just one capital channel and does not represent the entire market selling. The price can still be pushed up during ETF outflows, indicating that other buy and sell orders are temporarily absorbing the selling pressure; but based on price alone, we cannot determine who is buying, nor can we directly claim "institutions are back."
I do not consider this a confirmed reversal yet. Watch if $82,539 can hold above, and $80,681 below; breaking above the upper range would indicate continued absorption, while falling back to the lower range means reassessing the weight of this outflow. Do you think this sell-off is being absorbed, or is it just waiting for the next wave of selling pressure?
$BTC #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Data exceeded expectations on both fronts, yet BTC has climbed back above 82,000, while gold remains unmoved. Don't rush to call it a sell-off; this looks more like the market openly betting that the Fed won't act rashly in October. 🤔
$BTC: With PPI so strong, according to the old script BTC should have crashed, but buying pressure stubbornly pulled it back above 82,000. The market is "immune" to inflation data now; the logic is: the hotter the data, the more the Fed fears hurting the economy, and the 15% chance of a rate hike in October is proof. 🔥
$ETH: Following the rebound but still playing a supporting role. ETFs continue to bleed, institutions are retreating and cutting it first. After leverage falls, there might be some short covering, but it will be a short-lived rebound; without real money propping it up, when BTC dips, ETH falls faster. ⚠️
$XAUT: Gold's lack of movement is the real warning sign. With high inflation and geopolitical risks, gold prices are flat, indicating tight dollar liquidity and that funds might be covering other margins. BTC buying is driven by retail sentiment, gold buying is central bank allocation; gold sideways = real safe-haven funds are still watching. 👀
This round is a bet on policy, not a fundamental improvement. Don't chase longs above 82,000, and don't blindly try to top out. Wait for the Fed to reveal its hand. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #AI or push GDP to 44 trillion, can investments break even?
Whether investments can break even depends on the position in the industrial chain: the infrastructure layer is under pressure, while the application and tool layers have more solid evidence.
Break-even account: infrastructure under pressure, application layer delivers
Gartner estimates: by 2030, AI data center owners need to cumulatively generate $8.5 trillion in revenue to cover capital expenditures, financing costs, and achieve a 12% ROIC; attributable AI revenue during the same period is expected to be no more than $3.6 trillion, leaving a gap of more than half.
The application and tool layers have more concrete break-even. AWS states AI server costs can be recovered in less than three years, with nearly $500 billion in backlog orders.
Enterprise side: Google reports 74% of enterprises break even on at least one AI project in the first year, with "heavy investment" enterprises achieving an 88% return rate; Nucleus Research gives an average break-even cycle of 11 months and a 427% ROI over three years; Nutanix expects a $20 million internal AI cluster to break even within one year.
Core contradiction: mismatch between capital concentration and dispersed returns
The economic account of AI investment is not unbalanced, but the accounting cycle is extended, with the extension mainly borne by infrastructure holders. When asset depreciation outpaces revenue realization, the gap between accounting break-even and cash break-even will surface before the question of "whether AI creates value."
What is truly worrisome is the mismatch period between the speed of value creation and the speed of capital sinking, which may exceed the tolerance of some participants. $BTC $ZEC $ETH SOL is getting a major upgrade the day after tomorrow. Have you considered getting in?
On Wednesday, Alpenglow will launch on the mainnet, reducing the final transaction confirmation time from about 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds.
SOL is currently around $104.6, up only about 1% in the last 24 hours.
At the same time, BTC's market dominance has surged to about 60.8%, a 14-month high, draining altcoins.
An objective breakdown:
The positive news is real, but since the upgrade doesn't change fees or the execution layer, it’s hard for it to directly translate into buying pressure in the short term.
Post-upgrade, votes will no longer be on-chain, so the on-chain transaction count will "appear" to drop significantly—don’t be alarmed by this number.
Funds are still flowing into BTC, and the probability of a "sell-off after the good news is priced in" is not low.
This is a big deal technically, not necessarily price-wise.
It needs to hold above $110 to have buyers; if it falls below $100, this observation becomes invalid.
Deduct 1 point if it "pumps on the upgrade day," deduct 2 points if it "sells off after the good news is fully priced in."
$SOL $BTC $ETH
#德银拟托管BTC与ETH，数字资产业务提速 Tesla's Q3 earnings report will be released after the market closes on Wednesday.
Deliveries are expected to exceed forecasts by 5%, and revenue will most likely beat estimates. However, EPS will likely miss: deliveries of high-priced models have plummeted 48% year-over-year, Q2 automotive gross margin has dropped from 19.2% to 16.3%, and free cash flow is negative 1.1 billion. The stock price has fallen after the last three earnings reports.
Options are betting on 7.4% volatility. My bet: revenue beats, EPS misses, stock price falls—unless Musk drops a bombshell about Robotaxi or a SpaceX merger during the call, a narrative that can overshadow profits.
#okxProphetSeason3 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 10.19 Monday Morning Market Overview: BTC Long Positions Gained 1800 Points
BTC closed this morning with a long lower shadow and a bullish real body, forming a bullish engulfing pattern with yesterday's bearish candle; the weekly candle closed bearish with upper and lower shadows, two consecutive bearish weeks.
Over the weekend, the emphasis was on BTC breaking through and stabilizing above 8.17 to go long, or setting up long positions at the bottom support of 8.07; this morning, long positions automatically entered and took profit at T1, with T2 also closed shortly after, long positions profited 1800 points and exited, the short order set at 8.27 was canceled.
After BTC retested the box bottom support at 8.07, it immediately rebounded, with four consecutive large bullish candles directly touching the box top resistance near 8.27; long positions closed and short positions opened at 8.27, where heavy resistance and selling pressure exist.
If BTC breaks decisively above 8.27, the range will shift from the 8.07-8.27 consolidation zone to a narrow 8.27-8.41 consolidation zone; otherwise, after touching resistance or a wick spike, it will return to the lower consolidation zone.
The daily close formed a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating bullish signs for the day; remaining long positions should keep a trailing stop near 8.38 to protect capital; watch for a break above 8.27 followed by a drop below support to short with a stop at 8.38 and targets near 8.27 and 8.07.
If breaking above 8.27, set up a short position at 8.41 with a stop at 8.52 and targets near 8.3 and 8.19.
$BTC The biggest fear on weekends isn't the lack of market activity, but that volume suddenly returns and you haven't figured out how to handle it yet ✨ This deep V in ETH — is it a shakeout or a bearish continuation? Let's set the tone first: this is a game phase, not a chasing-the-rally phase. Early Saturday morning, ETH dipped to 2315; most people were resting at that time, liquidity was thinnest, and a single wick could trigger many stop losses. But the key is it recovered, climbing back near 2400, indicating support at this level — the force to push it down is weaker than the force to hold it up. The short-term momentum to crash further is insufficient, that's a fact. But I’m hesitant to treat "no big drop" as a safety net. Why? Because the signals from the South Korean stock market are more worth watching. The main index has dropped 60%, with some comparing it to 2008 when it fell over 80% in a week. More troubling is Monday’s open — there are over $50 million in buy orders stacked around $10 on KORU; if that level doesn't hold at open, it could trigger a new round of sell-offs. This isn’t an internal crypto issue; it’s external risk appetite being repriced. Looking at the US stock market from another angle: the tech sector took another 5% hit this morning, and it hasn’t bounced back decently. This "fall without recovery" pattern is more alarming than a single-day drop. The transmission path to crypto is clear: risk budgets shrink, leverage withdraws first, altcoins follow the drop, BTC and ETH resist the fall relatively but struggle to strengthen independently. The weekend’s volume surge, I’m more inclined to interpret as panic selling clashing with bargain hunting, rather than new capitalThe risk of quantum computing breaking Bitcoin's elliptic curve encryption is not yet fully priced into the market. There have been substantial advances in the past two years, but a true solution is still some way off. Five technical approaches: 1. BIP-360: Upgrade address structure Introduce P2MR, remove Taproot's long-term exposed public key Key Path. It has entered the coding and testing phase but cannot independently achieve complete quantum resistance. 2. Post-quantum signatures: Replace ECDSA / Schnorr Research on ML-DSA, SLH-DSA, SHRINCS, etc. Some have reference implementations and security proofs; the challenge is larger signatures, which may increase fees and block load. 3. BIP-361: Old coin migration plan The proposal phases out old signatures: about 3 years after activation, new funds are prohibited from being sent to vulnerable addresses; about 2 years later, spending with old signatures is restricted. Not yet activated. 4. Attack warning and automatic defense Pieter Wuille and others proposed mechanisms like Tripwire to close old signature paths once elliptic curves are actually broken. Still in research and discussion. 5. Old BTC rescue and Lightning Network upgrade Exploring zk-STARK ownership proofs, Commit/Reveal rescue, and remodeling Lightning Network with ML-KEM, ML-DSA. Some experimental prototypes exist; mainnet deployment is still distant. Three major issues: · No quantum resistance at all yet 📊 The trend structure of $USDT .D is increasingly resembling the first quarter of 2023.
If history repeats itself, the next three stages might be:
1️⃣ A rapid short-term drop in $BTC and altcoins
2️⃣ Followed by a rebound, refreshing the stage highs
3️⃣ Then entering 3-4 months of correction and consolidation
If this scenario holds, the real large-scale bull market might not start until the end of Q2 2027.
But note, an increase in USDT.D (USDT market cap dominance) usually means funds are favoring stablecoins more, while a decrease may reflect a rise in risk appetite; this does not necessarily mean the market will replicate history.
For $BTC next, do you expect a drop before a rise, or a direct start of a bull market? ☀️Roadster Market｜What’s being speculated is imagination, not profit🔥
$BTC $ETH
The current phase of Roadster is defined as: not driven by performance, but catalyzed by sentiment and narrative. Before the market opened, TSLA surged as much as 5%, A-share flying cars and low-altitude economy followed suit. What the market is actually buying is the sci-fi vibe of “Tesla × SpaceX,” not next year’s profits.
In the mid-term view, Roadster won’t enter mass production until 2028, and the Rocket version isn’t road-legal yet, making its revenue more like a “halo car.” Its real value lies in boosting valuation: reinforcing the imagination of autonomous driving, robotics, and $SPCX synergy once again. But car gross margin, free cash flow, and Q3 financial report are the real foundation.
In short: short-term speculation is on “flying,” mid-term focus is on “profitability,” don’t mistake stunts for financial reports.Cardano: Stablecoin growth but $ADA still needs to be evaluated separately!
The ecosystem gaining more liquidity does not necessarily mean the native token will immediately increase in price!
The total amount of stablecoins on Cardano reached about 70.2 million USD, up 31.1% in 30 days. USDC accounts for about 44.54 million USD, equivalent to 63.5% of the total stablecoins recorded. This is a notable sign for liquidity sources serving trading and DeFi. However, the amount of stablecoins held does not mean all the money is being actively used Today's slow rise should not be mistaken for a bull market recovery. Essentially, after CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, the bears no longer dare to push prices down, resulting in a vacuum rebound caused purely by the exhaustion of selling pressure. The market has fully priced in the expectation of no rate hike in October, but this is precisely the most fragile scenario.
First, let's talk about $BTC. It is slowly pushing upward today, but the volume hasn't picked up at all. The bulls haven't really exerted force; it's just that the short sellers from earlier are closing their positions and covering. The resistance between 82,000 and 84,000 is full of trapped positions. Without real large capital entering, this slow rise can be wiped out anytime by a US stock market pullback or any minor disturbance.
Next, look at $ETH. Ethereum remains the weakest follower, barely turning green as the market slowly rises. ETF funds are continuously flowing out, and institutions are not buying in at all. Its current stability relies entirely on $BTC's support. Once $BTC pulls back, Ethereum will definitely be the fastest to fall. Without any independent narrative support, the rebound is just a chance to exit.
Finally, look at $XAUT, gold. Gold's slow rise today is the real strength. It doesn't rely on crypto leverage; it's purely driven by safe-haven funds and central bank allocations quietly accumulating at the bottom. $BTC's slow rise is the bears disarming, while gold's slow rise is the buyers underpinning the market. The difference in substance between the two is vast.
Mistaking the exhaustion of selling pressure for a trend reversal is the most fatal mistake retail investors easily make. Without incremental funds, $BTC and $ETH are just treading water. Once this vacuum period passes, the market will naturally reveal its true face. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Those who shorted last night were carried away this morning.
In the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the network reached 288 million, with longs accounting for 186 million, or 64.8%. 93,000 people were liquidated, the vast majority being bulls who tried to catch the bottom halfway up the slope. But if you only see this, the morning's counterattack definitely doesn't concern you.
In the last hour, short liquidations hit 22.07 million, making up 98%. Over 4 hours, short liquidations totaled 55.11 million, exactly three times that of longs. The earlier drop ground the bulls into the dirt, but when the rebound came, those who chased shorts didn’t even have time to react. The pace is extremely fast; the ones getting hit have changed, but their attitude remains the same: defiant.
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$ETH: The bloodiest thing isn’t the data, it’s that one on-chain position.
24-hour liquidations reached 74.95 million, surpassing $BTC, making it the most intense leveraged battle in the market. But what really sent chills down my spine was this: a certain address shorted 13,830 $ETH at 2366 last night at 11 PM, a position worth 32.72 million USD. By 7:30 AM this morning, $ETH bounced to 2409, forcing liquidation of 2,765 coins, instantly vaporizing 6.66 million USD. The remaining 11,061 short coins have a liquidation price of 2419, just 9 dollars away from the current price.
Just 9 dollars. A tiny rebound spike could wipe out a 30-million-level short position. $ETH’s technicals closed in a narrow range of 2336-2343, volume shrank to 5,212 units, with a sell wall pressing down the price, which barely moved, but leveraged positions have already been silently crushed. On the surface, it’s sideways; underneath, it’s all blood.
$BTC: 80,000 is the last line of defense, but it’s being tugged repeatedly.
24-hour liquidations totaled 64.6 million, longs at 50.8%, almost a tie between bulls and bears, no clear winner. Price is holding near 81,000, with 80,000 being the core support repeatedly tested over the past week. But support isn’t free: US September CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, the probability of the October FOMC holding steady is marginally weakening, and open interest in options is heavily concentrated near the 80,000 strike price. If 80,000 breaks, the next support isn’t 78,000 but 75,000, and the correction space will open visibly fast.
More striking is on-chain: someone on Hyperliquid holds a 40x long position of 1,205 $BTC, nominal value 97.87 million, entry price 81,913, liquidation price 79,828. The current price is only 1.59% above the liquidation line, usable margin is zero, lost 9.77 million in 7 days, win rate 16.67%. This person isn’t unaware of the risk, they’re just betting they won’t be the last one.
$ZEC: Bulls got hit hardest in 24 hours, but shorts also got bitten this morning.
24-hour long liquidations reached 9.75 million, accounting for 76.2%, bulls were indeed pressed all day. But in the last hour, short liquidations were 637,700, while longs only 2,326 USD; the short side is now taking the short-term hits. $ZEC fell from the September highs of 1650-1700 to around 1165, losing 30% in a month, ETF net outflows continue, daily RSI is in a neutral to weak 45-55 range, MACD is flat or even crossing down. The 1070-1090 range is critical to watch next; breaking below 1000 is a real risk.
Interestingly, despite a pullback over 24%, a trader opened a 10x leveraged long position of 10,000 $ZEC, becoming a top 4 long holder. The co-founder is calling for a 2000-dollar target; whether the market believes it is another matter, but someone is betting real money on this level. The bulls are more wounded overall, but that doesn’t mean chasing shorts now is safe. $ZEC’s volatility never plays by the rules.
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Finally, a signal most people overlook: the Fear & Greed Index jumped from 53 to 59 today, officially entering a “greed” state. Liquidation data is painful, but sentiment is warming. The simultaneous appearance of these two means the market isn’t collapsing, it’s rotating — bull corpses are being carried away, short margins are being eaten, and survivors are betting again in greed.
I’m cautious now but not overly bearish. Heavy 24-hour bull damage doesn’t mean chasing shorts now is a winning game. The most expensive three words have always been "defiant."
What direction are your current positions? Drop a comment and let’s see who’s getting hit today.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Tesla's Q3 deliveries exceeded expectations, but the market's focus has quickly shifted to profit recovery. Deliveries are the "past tense," while profitability and cash flow are the "future tense" that determine stock price direction.
🚗 Deliveries beat expectations, but quality is questionable
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles globally in Q3, surpassing Wall Street's consensus estimate of about 461,000. However, there are concerns behind this "beat":
· Year-over-year contraction: Deliveries fell 2.1% from a record 497,099 vehicles in the same period last year, when U.S. buyers rushed to purchase before the federal tax credit expired.
· Reliance on inventory drawdown: Deliveries this quarter exceeded production by about 22,141 vehicles, marking the second consecutive quarter of inventory consumption. These sales may have involved discounts, putting pressure on gross margins.
· Deterioration in model mix: Model 3/Y accounted for 98% of total deliveries, while deliveries of "other models" like Cybertruck and Semi plunged about 48% to only 8,295 units.#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 October 19 PENGU Observation: If toys sell well, can token holders get money?
This morning, PENGU had about 4.36 million USDT in rolling 24-hour spot trading volume on Binance. When Pudgy Penguins are discussed again, it’s easy to mistake the toys on the shelves, a certain NFT, and the tokens on the exchange as the same equity.
They do share the brand, but the rights need to be examined layer by layer. Binance’s project information for December 2024 lists PENGU as an SPL token on Solana; this describes the token’s technical carrier, not a company equity share or a toy sales dividend certificate.
The official Pudgy Penguins authorization introduction is more specific: NFT holders have the opportunity to authorize their characters to the company for use in products and content, with specific terms depending on each agreement. The official submission page requires submitting the penguin NFT number and reserves the right to select or not.
For a character to enter the toy series, it must first be confirmed which NFT it corresponds to, who signed the contract, and what was agreed upon. You cannot infer from the authorization arrangement for a specific character that all PENGU holders will receive the same income.
Brand exposure can generate discussion but does not automatically establish a contractual relationship between the token and operating income. Under current information, sales, licensing fees, and token price remain three different observation targets; popularity fluctuations may also be faster than business progress.
$PENGU #PENGU
For informational purposes only, not investment advice.#美国暂缓对俄制裁，柴油供应预期生变
[Trump wants to cool down oil prices, but is Ukraine setting refineries on fire?]
Trump just eased energy restrictions on Russia, and the market immediately pushed oil prices down: Brent $BZ fell to $108.43, $CL around $100.88. But don’t rush to celebrate yet; cheap diesel hasn’t truly reached the market.
The International Energy Agency’s data is even more striking: global diesel exports in September dropped by about 700,000 barrels/day year-on-year, with combined losses from Russia and the Middle East around 1.3 million barrels/day. The US allowing some Russian diesel transactions can indeed fill part of the gap, but Russian refinery capacity is damaged, and Ukraine’s ongoing attacks on energy facilities mean that the paper supply permits don’t equal tankers having docked. The IEA even expects diesel market tightness to continue until 2027.
What I’m watching isn’t the daily oil price drop by a few points, but whether diesel deliveries can sustain. If energy prices don’t come down, inflation won’t ease, the Federal Reserve’s rate cut space will be squeezed, and the crypto market will find it even harder to rebound on liquidity. Conversely, if actual deliveries increase and freight costs fall, oil prices will have a chance to cool further. Right now, what’s being traded is the expectation of supply improvement; we’re still a tanker of diesel away from truly lifting the alarm.This week's BTC rebound couldn't hold. The core issue is just one: the number of buyers hasn't increased.
Throughout the week, the active buying amount of $BTC was 3.1% less than last week, and active selling was also down by 3.6%, but selling still exceeded buying by $520 million. Trading volume is still shrinking, sellers dominate, and the market lacks the funds to sustain an upward push.
There was indeed buying during the midweek rebound. On the 13th, active buying increased by 20% compared to the previous day, selling increased by 10%, and buying once surpassed selling. But the next day, buying only rose by 1.6%, while selling jumped 18%. As soon as buyers gained the upper hand, sellers quickly increased their volume, and the rebound was cut off.
ETH's active buying basically didn't change this week, active selling decreased by 4.2%, and the rebound relied entirely on sellers holding back. The 13th was similar, with buying down 6% and selling down 17%.
By the 14th, selling rose 25%, buying only 12%, and $ETH's rebound again met with no support. Looking at on-chain data, realized losses rose from 380 million to 542 million, an increase of 42%, while realized profits actually dropped by 55%. Buying hasn't picked up, losses are being realized more heavily, which is the key signal that ETH can't sustain a rebound yet. My view on the crypto market today
My attitude toward the overall market has gone back and forth:
Initially bullish, then bearish after studying macroeconomics, then after some reflection, bullish again—but this time the “bullish” is not a blind bull market, but a long-term bullish direction with no chasing in the short term.
Let's start with the most macro perspective.
Of course, the US has national debt, wars, and political divisions, but don’t be misled by the narrative of "East rising, West declining":
The US is only slowing down relative to China, but compared to the EU, Japan, and emerging markets, it remains the country most capable of attracting capital.
The dollar, technology, military strength, and depth of capital markets are still top-tier globally.
National debt is a chronic issue, not a trigger; localized wars happen every year and have never been the main driver of asset pricing.
So talk like "America is finished" can stir emotions but will cause big losses if used for position sizing.
Back to the pullback in October.
On the surface, it looks like a retreat in Fed rate hike expectations, policy tightening, big companies selling ETFs, and net capital outflows;
But look at the market:
No crash where there should be one, no panic where there should be panic, broad indices have support, crypto hasn’t collapsed, just sideways movement.
Sideways itself is a form of strong support.
The pullback in tech stocks, semiconductors, and AI chains is not "the industry is over," but a repricing of long-duration assets under a high interest rate environment—money is moving from "storytelling" to "cash flow," that’s all.
So my conclusion is:
Hold your core positions, avoid high leverage.
Believe in the bullish framework but respect short-term interest rates.
$BTC $ETH
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？