比特币子棋
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Why is a large bullish candlestick the most likely to mislead people into thinking the trend has reversed?
After going through several bull and bear cycles, I am increasingly reluctant to call a “bull return” based on just one explosive K-line surge.
After the market consolidates for a long time and suddenly breaks out, short sellers’ stop losses and liquidations create forced buying; outside funds see the rise and chase in, pushing the price up faster and faster.
It looks like massive capital is scrambling to accumulate, but in reality, the initial surge may mainly be shorts being forced to cover.
I used to be most prone to chasing highs at such times: seeing BTC break out, ETH and altcoins collectively catching up, I thought a new cycle was confirmed.
But after the short liquidation ends, if subsequent spot funds don’t follow through, the market quickly falls back to the original range.
A true reversal can’t be judged just by how strong the rise is.
You also need to look at three details: whether the price can hold after the breakout, whether volume shrinks on the pullback, and whether real funds like ETFs or on-chain stablecoins continue to flow in. If the price is mainly driven up by contract positions and funding rates, the sharper the rise, the greater the subsequent volatility.
A large bullish candlestick only proves that buyers dominated at one moment, but it can’t prove that people will still be willing to buy in the coming weeks.
Remember: short liquidation can create a breakout, but only sustained spot buying can turn a breakout into a trend.
比特币子棋
This breakout can no longer be explained as a weak rebound, but it is not yet time to confirm a bull market reversal.
$BTC consolidated around 63,000 before breaking out with volume above the 69K-70K downtrend line, reaching a high above 75,700.
This level is not only a technical breakout but also a short-seller stop-loss zone, a previous platform, and a confluence with the trendline, so the rally speed was very fast.
Historically, strong rebounds in bear markets often first break the downtrend line, then surge to the Fibonacci 38.2% or previous heavy chip concentration areas and get resisted. Calculating from the 126,000 high to the 58,000 low, around 74,000 is the 23.6% retracement, around 84,000 is 38.2%, and around 92,000 is 50%. $ETH $HYPE
73,500–74,000 is the short-term strength/weakness line
70,000–72,000 is the breakout retest zone
78,000–80,000 is the first resistance
82,000–84,000 is the most critical top zone of this rebound
My judgment: This rally has already shaken off weakness. Most likely, it will first oscillate upward, then diverge at higher levels. As long as the pullback does not break below 70,000, the rebound still has a chance to continue until late August to early September, with a target high of 78,000–84,000.
But if BTC falls back below 70,000 and fails to recover, this breakout will be defined as a false breakout, with the downside revisiting 65,000 or even 60,000–62,000. The current strategy is to be bullish but not chase the highs, waiting for a pullback confirmation. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
This breakout can no longer be explained as a weak rebound, but it is not yet time to confirm a bull market reversal.
$BTC consolidated around 63,000 before breaking out with volume above the 69K-70K downtrend line, reaching a high above 75,700.
This level is not only a technical breakout but also a short-seller stop-loss zone, a previous platform, and a confluence with the trendline, so the rally speed was very fast.
Historically, strong rebounds in bear markets often first break the downtrend line, then surge to the Fibonacci 38.2% or previous heavy chip concentration areas and get resisted. Calculating from the 126,000 high to the 58,000 low, around 74,000 is the 23.6% retracement, around 84,000 is 38.2%, and around 92,000 is 50%. $ETH $HYPE
73,500–74,000 is the short-term strength/weakness line
70,000–72,000 is the breakout retest zone
78,000–80,000 is the first resistance
82,000–84,000 is the most critical top zone of this rebound
My judgment: This rally has already shaken off weakness. Most likely, it will first oscillate upward, then diverge at higher levels. As long as the pullback does not break below 70,000, the rebound still has a chance to continue until late August to early September, with a target high of 78,000–84,000.
But if BTC falls back below 70,000 and fails to recover, this breakout will be defined as a false breakout, with the downside revisiting 65,000 or even 60,000–62,000. The current strategy is to be bullish but not chase the highs, waiting for a pullback confirmation. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
Everyone is very excited today, is the bull market really here?
Brothers, don't get too excited, I advise you to stay restrained and not shout so loudly!
I already explained this morning that this rise is mostly due to policy benefits + market retaliatory rebound + short squeeze covering!
It's still too early to talk about a bull market.
What we should discuss more is the sustainability of this rebound and how high it can go. My reasons for being out of the market should be known to my old followers!
At the same time, I believe that even if the bull market really comes, there will be many opportunities to get in. The louder the shouting now, the more I think this is likely just a rebound!
A real bull market start should be quiet and unnoticed, with the bottom gradually rising imperceptibly, not this kind of violent breakout!
Looking above, first watch 72000, 75000, and 78000. I think 78000 is the limit of this rebound, and it won't last long!
Why do people always dare to add to losing positions but hesitate to add to winning ones?
After trading for a long time, I've realized that human nature naturally prefers to "buy cheap" rather than "buy right."
When a coin drops 30% after purchase, we feel the cost-performance ratio is better: adding a bit more lowers the average cost.
But when a coin rises 30%, with trend, volume, and capital confirming, we instead think it's expensive and fear buying at the peak.
I used to be like this too.
I kept adding to losing positions as they dropped because each addition brought the cost basis closer to the current price, visually seeming like correcting a mistake; but I sold winning positions early because taking profits immediately proved my judgment was right.
The usual result is: the weak buy more and more, the strong sell more and more, and the final account holds only the most disappointing positions.
Adding to positions itself isn't wrong, but the premise is that the price has dropped and the logic remains intact.
If fundamentals deteriorate, tokens keep unlocking, and capital keeps flowing out, so-called lowering the cost basis only amplifies the same mistake.
Similarly, adding to winning positions isn't blindly chasing highs but continuing to participate with new stop-losses and position management after trend confirmation.
Trading isn't about collecting cheap chips but about allocating more capital to directions that prove themselves.
Remember: lowering cost doesn't mean lowering risk; the real danger isn't buying expensive but leaving the largest position to the most wrong judgment just to break even.
Last night BTC ETH HYPE surged explosively, driven by macro risk repair, warming policy expectations, spot buying ignition, concentrated short covering, and contract funds chasing the rally!
First, macro pressure eased. $BTC $ETH $HYPE
After the U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, bond prices rebounded, and U.S. Treasury yields fell.
This is not yet quantitative easing, but the market at least saw some bottom-supporting attitude; long-term rates temporarily stabilized, giving risk capital a reason to re-enter.
Policy expectations are also heating up.
Trump met with crypto industry executives at the White House and pushed again for the Clarity Act. Although the bill hasn't been enacted, it was enough for the market to reprice regulatory improvements.
What really ignited the market was BTC breaking through.
The price started above $64,000, surged to around $70,450, and the sideways structure that had lasted for weeks finally broke open. After the breakout, trend funds and wait-and-see funds began entering, and shorts were forced to cover.
Next, I am watching three levels:
BTC holds $68,000, with upside targets at $70,500–$72,000
ETH holds $2,150 to $2,200, with upside targets at $2,350–$2,500
HYPE holds $65 to $67, with upside targets at $74–$78
As long as these levels hold, short-term sentiment has a chance to continue for 24 to 72 hours. #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
A question: SNDK and SKHY are rallying on good news at high levels, but why?
My view: SKHY's buyback can support sector expectations, but it's not enough for SNDK to immediately resume a one-sided main rise. After the rebound, storage stocks are more likely to enter a high-level consolidation, and individual stocks will further diverge.
Previously, SNDK added a $14 billion buyback authorization, then announced targets for high growth, high profit margins, and cash returns. SKHY launched about a $28.6 billion buyback plan to be executed within three months and will cancel about 3.3% of its shares.
Both companies released buyback benefits when their stock prices surged and the market began to worry whether AI investments could be sustained. The market interprets this as a statement: the companies are willing to use real money to stabilize valuations and have confidence in future cash flows.
However, buybacks are not a cure-all.
They can reduce outstanding shares and increase value per share but cannot solve risks such as high U.S. Treasury yields, slowing AI capital expenditures, and storage price peaks.
Between the two stocks, I am more optimistic about SKHY's medium-term support.
It has HBM orders, actual cash flow, and a clear buyback plan, providing more solid backing. SNDK benefits more from sector mapping and NAND price expectations, with greater upside elasticity but also more prone to sharp rises and falls when sentiment fades.
SKHY seems to be underpinning the sector, while SNDK is responsible for amplifying volatility.
The storage rally cannot yet be said to be over, but the most profitable phase may have passed. Whether the stock price can continue to rise depends not only on the buyback scale but also on whether orders, prices, and profits can continue to be realized.
比特币子棋
Just now, SKHY from Hynix and SNDK from SanDisk surged sharply. Did you guys not react in time? The shorts must be buzzing in their heads. Don't worry, let's analyze it!
A violent rebound of nearly 10% within an hour! This round of storage stock rebound was directly catalyzed by SKHY.
The company plans to spend about 40 trillion KRW to repurchase and cancel approximately 24.07 million shares, accounting for about 3.3% of the total shares, and at the same time promises to use at least 50% of the cumulative free cash flow from 2025 to 2027 for shareholder returns.
SKHY dares to expand production while simultaneously deploying huge funds for buybacks, indicating that management believes HBM and DRAM can continue to generate cash flow.
In other words, the storage market is at least not as bad as the market previously feared, and funds then spread this logic to MU, WDC, and SNDK.
Next, we only look at the strength and weakness boundaries of the two stocks respectively:
SKHY targets $150.
If it holds and then retakes $165 to $170, the target is $180, then $190 to $195 previous highs; breaking below $149 to $150 means the buyback can only buffer the decline and is not enough to reverse market expectations.
SNDK targets $1650 and $1750.
Breaking through $1750 gives a chance to test $1800 to $1830; with volume and steady hold above $1830, the main uptrend is considered restored.
Conversely, breaking below $1650 indicates this rise is still more of an oversold rebound, and losing $1600 means a second pullback should be guarded against. $SNDK $SKHY
Just now, SKHY from Hynix and SNDK from SanDisk surged sharply. Did you guys not react in time? The shorts must be buzzing in their heads. Don't worry, let's analyze it!
A violent rebound of nearly 10% within an hour! This round of storage stock rebound was directly catalyzed by SKHY.
The company plans to spend about 40 trillion KRW to repurchase and cancel approximately 24.07 million shares, accounting for about 3.3% of the total shares, and at the same time promises to use at least 50% of the cumulative free cash flow from 2025 to 2027 for shareholder returns.
SKHY dares to expand production while simultaneously deploying huge funds for buybacks, indicating that management believes HBM and DRAM can continue to generate cash flow.
In other words, the storage market is at least not as bad as the market previously feared, and funds then spread this logic to MU, WDC, and SNDK.
Next, we only look at the strength and weakness boundaries of the two stocks respectively:
SKHY targets $150.
If it holds and then retakes $165 to $170, the target is $180, then $190 to $195 previous highs; breaking below $149 to $150 means the buyback can only buffer the decline and is not enough to reverse market expectations.
SNDK targets $1650 and $1750.
Breaking through $1750 gives a chance to test $1800 to $1830; with volume and steady hold above $1830, the main uptrend is considered restored.
Conversely, breaking below $1650 indicates this rise is still more of an oversold rebound, and losing $1600 means a second pullback should be guarded against. $SNDK $SKHY
比特币子棋
#闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧
The fundamentals of SNDK have not deteriorated; this is a triple cooldown from valuation, profit-taking, and US stock liquidity after a continuous surge.
Combining yesterday's analysis, SNDK has as expected retraced to the strong support zone of 1550-1600 where sentiment has cooled. As long as SNDK holds $1500, the mid-term uptrend structure remains intact.
At this level, previous short positions can consider taking profits, with caution as the priority, while waiting for a right-side test opportunity. Last night’s large bearish candle just returned to the upper edge of the previous dense chip area.
What needs to be verified here is whether the original resistance can turn into support. Currently, it looks more like profit-taking and chip rotation after a rapid rise, with no clear typical top structure yet.
Going forward, focus on three key levels:
$1600: The boundary between bulls and bears.
Holding this level only stops the decline; only a rebound above $1680–$1700 confirms the start of a rally.
$1500: Trend stop-loss.
A 4-hour close below this level means the top-bottom reversal fails and the mid-term bullish logic is invalidated.
As for $1420–$1450, although there is trendline support, it should be observed again and not mechanically averaged down.
So my plan is: wait for stabilization signals between $1550 and $1600, try small positions; use $1500 as logical stop-loss; consider adding positions only after reclaiming $1700.
This is not the time to heavily bet on a reversal, nor is it necessary to declare the trend over just because of one large bearish candle. First, see if $1600 can hold, then let the price give the answer. $SNDK $BTC
Why do people become even more reluctant to sell right after breaking even from a loss?
After trading for a long time, I realized that breaking even is not the end; it often marks the beginning of another psychological battle.
You buy a coin or stock and get stuck in a loss. After enduring for a few days, the price finally returns to your cost basis.
According to the original plan, you might be supposed to reduce your position, but human nature immediately rewrites the script: having endured so long, just taking a small profit and leaving feels like all that suffering was for nothing. So the goal shifts from "exit once breaking even" to "make another 10% profit," only for the price to fall again, turning a small gain back into a deep loss.
I used to treat holding time as a cost, thinking the longer I endured, the more the market should compensate me. But prices don’t pay you a psychological damage fee just because you suffered.
What you should do most after breaking even is not celebrate being right, but re-examine the trade: if you didn’t hold the position today, would you still want to buy at this price? Is the rise due to an improved trend or just a technical rebound? Does the original buying logic still hold?
If the answer is no, then the cost basis is just a psychological anchor, not market support.
Many people fail to break even not because the price didn’t give them a chance, but because greed replaced fear the moment they broke even.
Remember: how long you’ve been stuck doesn’t determine how much you should earn; whether you can let go of the cost obsession after breaking even determines if this trade ultimately becomes a lesson.
#闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧
The fundamentals of SNDK have not deteriorated; this is a triple cooldown from valuation, profit-taking, and US stock liquidity after a continuous surge.
Combining yesterday's analysis, SNDK has as expected retraced to the strong support zone of 1550-1600 where sentiment has cooled. As long as SNDK holds $1500, the mid-term uptrend structure remains intact.
At this level, previous short positions can consider taking profits, with caution as the priority, while waiting for a right-side test opportunity. Last night’s large bearish candle just returned to the upper edge of the previous dense chip area.
What needs to be verified here is whether the original resistance can turn into support. Currently, it looks more like profit-taking and chip rotation after a rapid rise, with no clear typical top structure yet.
Going forward, focus on three key levels:
$1600: The boundary between bulls and bears.
Holding this level only stops the decline; only a rebound above $1680–$1700 confirms the start of a rally.
$1500: Trend stop-loss.
A 4-hour close below this level means the top-bottom reversal fails and the mid-term bullish logic is invalidated.
As for $1420–$1450, although there is trendline support, it should be observed again and not mechanically averaged down.
So my plan is: wait for stabilization signals between $1550 and $1600, try small positions; use $1500 as logical stop-loss; consider adding positions only after reclaiming $1700.
This is not the time to heavily bet on a reversal, nor is it necessary to declare the trend over just because of one large bearish candle. First, see if $1600 can hold, then let the price give the answer. $SNDK $BTC
"The Bull Has Arrived, and So Has the Wolf"
Taking a glance at the "Bull Arrival" DEV records, it's honestly a bit overwhelming: one address minted 6 coins in just a few days.
After Bull Arrival launched, its peak market cap reached about $48.67 million, and suddenly the script seemed to be unlocked—keep launching, keep testing, keep copying.
The problem is, there’s only one Bull Arrival, but behind it stands a crowd of "bull horses."
Some peaked at tens of thousands of dollars, some at over a hundred thousand, and some now only have a few tens of thousands left.
This is exactly the part of Meme that deserves the most caution now: people used to think they were hunting for the next 100x coin, but it increasingly feels like participating in a low-cost DEV startup incubator.
Launch 10 coins, as long as 1 takes off, DEV might be satisfied;
You buy 10 coins, even if 9 get cut, the 10th one might multiply a few times and still just break even.
What’s even more concerning is that recently various "helper" groups and small circles have started banding together to launch coins: one group creates memes, another shouts buy signals, another manufactures "community consensus," and finally retail investors provide the most crucial element—exit liquidity.
So don’t assume the next "Bull Arrival" will be a bull just because the last one made money.
You can follow the Bull Arrival closely.
When the Wolf comes, remember to first see who’s shouting.
