wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
906Following
4.4Kfollowers
Feed
Livestream
Feed
At Friday's close, many people can't stay idle over the weekend and look for something to do in the market. Here's an unpopular suggestion: the best thing to do right now is nothing.
Two key events are set for next week: Hynix's earnings report and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The real cards that can set the direction haven't been revealed yet. If you rush to bet now, you're not gambling on the market, but on your own impatience.
Anyone who plays cards knows that in a whole night, there are only two or three hands worth going all in on. The rest of the time, your only task at the table is not to lose your chips for nothing. In a stagnant market like $BTC, waiting empty-handed is better than forcing a feel. An itchy hand is not a signal, it's a disease.
Oil prices have surged sharply these past two days, with WTI intraday hitting 102, and the screen is flooded again with the linear script "war = oil rise = inflation."
A quick reminder: don't rush to copy that.
On the same day, the exact words from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen were: Oil exports from the Persian Gulf are strongly rebounding, already exceeding pre-conflict levels, and Iran's threat has not truly cut off energy flows to the market.
On one hand, actual exports are not falling but rising; on the other, oil prices are jumping with a several-point premium. The difference here is called panic premium, not real shortage.
The characteristic of panic premium is: it comes fast and goes fast. Before being led by a headline to chase long crude oil and casually short risk assets, first distinguish what is real supply and demand and what is just emotional fluctuation. The former can sustain; the latter can retreat at any moment.
The crypto community has debated "real use cases" for so many years, and the most honest statement came today from a government preparing to face sanctions.
The Prime Minister of Israel publicly stated: once faced with banking sanctions, they are ready to use blockchain and cryptocurrency networks to "bypass" them.
Think about this sentence. What it admits is precisely the strongest attribute of crypto: censorship resistance and bypassing traditional financial channels. Not the retail investors' daily talk of "digital gold" or "buy it for hedging during war," narratives that have been debunked many times this year.
Real demand often comes from unexpected corners. To see if an asset is truly valuable, don't listen to crypto KOLs hyping it; look at who in the real world is actually using it and for what purpose.
Everyone is focused on the AI bubble and how much Nvidia dropped today, but few are looking up at the cracks forming over in Europe.
Moody's didn't downgrade France's rating last night, but the outlook is negative. The real number to note is: the spread between French and German 10-year government bonds has widened to 178 basis points, compared to just 85 at the beginning of September. This is the highest level in 24 years.
In plain language: the market is demanding that developed countries like France pay increasingly higher interest rates before lending to them. The fiscal deficit accounts for 5.4% of GDP, and the budget still can't pass in parliament.
Tail risks never lurk in the spotlight. By the time they make headlines, the price movement is already over. Those watching the market, don't keep your eyes glued to just one sector.
This week I cleanly cashed out the short position on the AI bubble and the long position on Hynix, now only holding a small position in the account. Some might see this and say: Have you lost your direction?
Quite the opposite. Light positions are not hesitation, but design.
I've played cards for over ten years, and the most valuable lesson is: when you don't have good cards, betting less is itself a strategy. You don't have to go all in every hand, nor be fully invested every day. Holding most of your chips and waiting means waiting for those opportunities where the odds clearly favor you and are worth heavy bets.
Now is not that time. So I only keep one lottery ticket-sized position to test the waters, keeping the rest of the bullets untouched.
The real challenge is never whether you dare to charge when fully invested, but whether you can sit tight when empty-handed.
Many people asked me this week when $BTC will actually move. My answer is: stop staring at it, look next door.
This round, BTC has no narrative of its own; it’s a follower, not the main character. Instead of drawing "bullish divergence" or "falling wedge" on crypto K-lines, better look up at two things: one is how far the Nasdaq and those AI leaders have fallen, the other is whether the 10-year US Treasury yield has stabilized above 5%.
The steering wheel isn’t in the crypto world’s hands. As long as the AI bubble hasn’t fully burst and interest rates are still hovering above 5%, BTC’s lukewarm consolidation is likely not building a bottom but lining up to follow the drop.
If you really want a reason to go long, you should wait for a signal from the US stock market first, rather than getting emotional over the crypto price.
In the past couple of days, have you been watching crypto K-lines, or the Nasdaq and US Treasuries?
After a week of decline, the most asked question behind the scenes is: "This time it's harsh enough, right? Is it time to buy the dip?"
I glanced at the Fear and Greed Index, 51, right in the middle. This isn't panic; it's lukewarm water.
What does the real bottom worth betting heavily on look like? It's when the index is in single digits, when consecutive liquidations hit the trending searches, when the last stubborn bull in the group finally calls it a crash. And now? The AI bubble has only been squeezed for a week, and most people are still thinking about "reaching new highs."
Falling a lot and falling to the bottom are two completely different things. The former is a feeling; the latter requires data. Don't mistake the pain of your account's unrealized losses as a signal that the market has bottomed.
Do you think this 51 is more like halfway up the mountain or at the foot?
A couple of days ago, some people were reassuring themselves by saying "The Dow is rising, it's just that funds are rotating out of tech," claiming this isn't a crash but a healthy rotation.
Today, Friday's close, the Dow itself fell: the Dow dropped 1.24%, leading the decline, while the Nasdaq only fell 0.21%. The pillar that was holding up yesterday has collapsed first today.
What does this mean? The so-called "rotation" is often just the baton of decline not yet passed to the index you're watching. When defensive sectors and cyclical stocks also start falling together, it's not money moving around inside the house, but someone moving things out the door.
Don't use the word "rotation" to reassure yourself. When risk appetite is generally declining, no room in the house is a safe room.
Which stock are you still holding onto thinking "it can hold up"?
