wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
910Following
4.4Kfollowers
Feed
Livestream
Feed
Talking about something counterintuitive on Saturday: overall, I was bearish this week, but I still have one or two small speculative long positions in my account. Many people find it contradictory—why go long if you're bearish?
The difference lies between "belief" and "lottery ticket." The big bearish direction is a judgment I'm willing to bet heavily on and endure volatility for; these small speculative longs are bets where I clearly know the odds, only risk what I can afford to lose, exit when the target is reached, and treat losses as tuition fees if it doesn't work out.
The biggest fear in trading isn't having both longs and shorts at the same time, but turning a casually bought lottery ticket into a belief and adding more money as it keeps losing. Position size itself is an honest answer to how confident you are in that trade.
Let's talk about a common technical misunderstanding: volume contraction.
$BTC's trading volume has shrunk to an absurdly low level these days, hovering almost motionless around 80,000. Many people behind the scenes tell me, "The sell orders have dried up, it's the bottom."
Stop right there. Volume contraction means completely different things depending on the context. During an uptrend, a volume contraction on a pullback is called holding back sales—buyers are still present; during a downtrend, volume contraction with sideways movement often means buyers have simply left—no one is taking the orders, which doesn't mean no one wants to sell, just that no one is willing to act at this price level for now. A platform with light trading volume can be either accumulation or a pause before distribution; volume alone cannot determine this.
The real bottom is hammered out with high volume and then never makes a new low again—not this lukewarm, tepid action. Mistaking volume contraction for a bottom before the trend is complete is a tuition fee retail investors pay every cycle.
This week's review: the time I truly made money was when I was sitting still.
After playing cards for so many years, I slowly understood: the money at the card table isn't won by playing more hands, but by knowing when to fold. Hundreds of hands in one night, but only three or four big bets; the rest is waiting. Trading is exactly the same—the direction I chose this week was right, but the profit wasn't made by watching the market every day; it was made by locking in gains and keeping my hands off, resisting the urge to trade.
The biggest mistake retail investors make is confusing "diligence" with "effectiveness": feeling the need to hold a position every day, wanting to participate in every candlestick, and ending up giving back a correct judgment through ten impulsive trades.
Low-frequency, large bets aren't just slogans; they acknowledge that most of the time, you simply don't have an edge. $BTC is currently a marginal card, not worth me going all in with my attention.
Keep an eye on the market this weekend, especially isolating the Middle East line. The US Navy warships are already preparing in the Middle East waters for a possible escalation. Trump says he won't strike before the election, but then hints at "possibly another small-scale operation." Trust the ships, not the words.
Many people have become numb to these kinds of headlines—when oil prices surged to 102 on Thursday, the crypto community didn't even blink. Numbness itself is a risk. The market becomes indifferent to a hundred "wolf is coming" warnings, but when it really comes, it will be a direct gap down.
Crypto is the only 7×24 market. If something really happens, with thin spot trading on weekends and no one to take the other side, the first to express panic will be $BTC. This is not to make you bet on direction, but to remind you: don't sleep naked with leverage on a weekend when the US Navy is blatantly warming up.
Saturdays like this are the most deceptive. Once liquidity thins, a few million can push $BTC up a bit, and immediately someone screenshots it shouting "weekend rebound, the bottom is here."
I only watch one thing: who is falling harder. Today $BTC hovered just above eighty thousand, $ETH lost 2400, and $SOL dropped more than three in one day—the ones leading the decline are all the highly elastic batch. This is not a rebound; it's risk appetite quietly withdrawing: money first pulls out from the most volatile assets, and the big brother is last.
The weekend calm is the calm after liquidity has withdrawn, not the calm of buying returning. Treating it as a bottom is often the starting point of the next drop. Don't be fooled into entering by a small weekend green candle.
At Friday's close, many people can't stay idle over the weekend and look for something to do in the market. Here's an unpopular suggestion: the best thing to do right now is nothing.
Two key events are set for next week: Hynix's earnings report and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The real cards that can set the direction haven't been revealed yet. If you rush to bet now, you're not gambling on the market, but on your own impatience.
Anyone who plays cards knows that in a whole night, there are only two or three hands worth going all in on. The rest of the time, your only task at the table is not to lose your chips for nothing. In a stagnant market like $BTC, waiting empty-handed is better than forcing a feel. An itchy hand is not a signal, it's a disease.
Oil prices have surged sharply these past two days, with WTI intraday hitting 102, and the screen is flooded again with the linear script "war = oil rise = inflation."
A quick reminder: don't rush to copy that.
On the same day, the exact words from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen were: Oil exports from the Persian Gulf are strongly rebounding, already exceeding pre-conflict levels, and Iran's threat has not truly cut off energy flows to the market.
On one hand, actual exports are not falling but rising; on the other, oil prices are jumping with a several-point premium. The difference here is called panic premium, not real shortage.
The characteristic of panic premium is: it comes fast and goes fast. Before being led by a headline to chase long crude oil and casually short risk assets, first distinguish what is real supply and demand and what is just emotional fluctuation. The former can sustain; the latter can retreat at any moment.
The crypto community has debated "real use cases" for so many years, and the most honest statement came today from a government preparing to face sanctions.
The Prime Minister of Israel publicly stated: once faced with banking sanctions, they are ready to use blockchain and cryptocurrency networks to "bypass" them.
Think about this sentence. What it admits is precisely the strongest attribute of crypto: censorship resistance and bypassing traditional financial channels. Not the retail investors' daily talk of "digital gold" or "buy it for hedging during war," narratives that have been debunked many times this year.
Real demand often comes from unexpected corners. To see if an asset is truly valuable, don't listen to crypto KOLs hyping it; look at who in the real world is actually using it and for what purpose.
