诸葛投研✊
诸葛投研✊
17年进圈，9年web3老玩家，券商原持牌投顾。合约爆过仓，现在只玩主流币现货，向段永平看齐。
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Last night’s dip was deleveraging, not a valuation kill. In 24 hours, $815 million liquidated, 201,000 people liquidated, longs accounted for 92.6%, and open interest dropped to 140.1 billion.
These two moves are completely different; the former is short-term pain, the latter long-term pain.
Two pieces of evidence supporting this conclusion:
1. The current market impact is all short-term bearish news, the Iran war and midterm elections, which will end sooner or later.
2. Whales are hoarding: this month, 40 new wallets withdrew 770 million $BTC, and wallets holding less than 10,000 coins increased by about 90,000 coins in one month.
BTC technicals: RSI 45.9, MA7 81883, MA20 82366, MA30 83047—all three moving averages pressing overhead, 30-day range position just over 20%, 24-hour low 79220.
$ETH technicals: RSI 40.0 weak, 24-hour low 2282.85, MA7 2403, MA20 2460 all overhead. Contracts are actually bullish: shorts cut from 14,000 to 3,000 contracts, longs exposure surged from under 100 million to 365 million, long pain points at 2256 and 2226.
$ZEC technicals: RSI 48.7, MA7 1213, MA20 1210 just underfoot, today pulled back from 1119 to 1210, barely holding above the short moving average.
Pinned
1.00 has become the ceiling that $SUI bulls can't break through; technically, it's a typical integer-level compression with no clear direction. It is currently stuck just below the 1.00 integer threshold, RSI at 47.6 neutral, but all three moving averages (MA7 0.995, MA20 1.06, MA30 1.09) are pressing down from above.
$FIL's technical breakdown triggered a volume sell-off, forming a weak breakdown structure: a 15% plunge over 7 days, breaking below the 0.992 78.6% Fibonacci key level (with 33% volume surge at that time). Although RSI at 46.3 is not yet oversold, MA20 at 1.07 is pressing down from above.
$WLD surged strongly due to concentrated speculation by Korean retail investors (WLD tops the Korean crypto attention index, with local trading volume 20 times the global average).
Technically, it is the only one among the three standing above all three moving averages (MA7/MA20/MA30 all below 0.52-0.53), RSI at 55.4 is relatively strong, and the 30-day range position is 62.9% — the rebound structure of +5.6% over 7 days and +9.1% over 14 days remains intact. Today's 2% drop is just a normal pullback after a big surge.
However, everyone should note that tomorrow (10/24) about $59 million worth of tokens will be unlocked, so be cautious.
Don't be fooled by those mainstream coins; after last night's flash drop, they recovered, making it seem like the trend has strengthened. In reality, we are still in a weak cycle:
$BTC current price has returned above 80,000, but it remains stuck below the bearish structure of MA7 (81972)/MA20 (82602)/MA30 (83155).
The reason for last night's initial drop was: BTC spot ETF had net outflows of about $773 million over two consecutive days; the entire market saw $837 million in leveraged long positions forcibly liquidated (accounting for 82.8%); Arthur Hayes publicly liquidated positions combined with thin weekend liquidity amplified the crash.
However, after panic selling cleared, bottom-fishing funds pushed BTC price back to 80,000.
$ETH dropped to about 2320, a nearly two-month low, with RSI at 31.8 entering oversold territory, all three moving averages (MA7 2397/MA20 2458/MA30 2535) pressing overhead, and a 30-day position of only 3.5%, making it the weakest technically among the three.
This is because ETH spot ETF had net outflows over 14 trading days this month, weekly net outflows of $220 million, and cumulative flight of $1.175 billion.
$ZEC rebounded from a low of 1119 to 1210, standing above MA7 (1199) but still suppressed by MA20 (1216)/MA30 (1291).
RSI at 41.3 is not oversold, and the 30-day position at 25% represents a technical rebound after a sharp drop. The main cause of the crash was concentrated forced liquidation of ZEC leveraged long positions, with a single hour seeing $4.85 million in long liquidations accounting for 98% of the entire market at that time.
The biggest problem with Meme coins is this: when mainstream coins fell last night, they fell too, but when mainstream coins rose in the early morning, they didn’t follow the rise. This is the main reason I recommend mainstream coins:
$DOGE is still stuck at the lower edge of the 30-day range, at 8% on the 30-day position, with all three moving averages pressing overhead (MA7/20/30 at 0.0794/0.0825/0.0867). Although the RSI at 35 is not oversold, the coin price will definitely hover near the monthly low in the short term.
$PEPE fortunately rose quite a bit this week due to Sun Ge’s buy orders, so it has room to fall. Its structure has also strengthened, making it the only meme coin turning bullish.
PEPE has stood back above all moving averages (MA7/20/30 all below the current price), positioned in the upper half of the 30-day range (67% on the 30-day position), up 17% weekly, with an RSI of 52.8, neutral and healthy, indicating strong recovery.
$TRUMP is a tough case, now nailed at the 30-day lowest point and unwilling to move. MA30(1.9194) > MA20(1.8389) > MA7(1.7553) > current price(1.6800), a standard bearish downward ladder, and the current price is 12.5% below MA30, deeper than DOGE’s 10.5%. Down 19.6% this month with no sign of stopping the fall, the weakest.
After last night's drop, it feels like the downtrend channels for various tokens have opened up, and the previous strong support levels are no longer strong:
The pattern of $SOL just formed a cup and handle, and the price is exactly on the 200-day moving average. Some have drawn a short-term handle target of 145. But I think that's a bit optimistic because the funding rate has turned negative, indicating the market is bearish.
Technically, SOL's RSI is 41.9, its 30-day position is 14.3%, and the 24-hour low of 98.62 has already broken below the 100 integer level once. MA7 at 104.3 is the first hurdle for a rebound.
$OKB is even harder to handle, with an RSI of 39.5, 30-day position at 9%, and the 24-hour low of 106 pressing against the bottom edge of this range. MA7 is 112.2, MA20 is 119.2, so resistance overhead is heavy. The funding rate is slightly negative, meaning bears dominate.
$HYPE is about to face a dense chip zone around 70, a key psychological integer level. RSI is 39.3, 30-day position 10.9%, and the 24-hour low of 74.465 is close to the bottom of the range. MA7 is 78.4, MA20 is 81.7.
HYPE's fees and burn data remain solid, so the token price has only dropped 19% this month, which is considered good.
The recent scenario was so intense, $BTC dropped below 80,000 directly to 79,000, but fortunately it has now rebounded back to 80,000.
But don't be too optimistic, it will still fall: #MiddleEastCrudeOilSupplyRiskRisesAgain, oil prices continue to strengthen
Trump keeps wanting to attack Iran, it looks like the fighting will start after the midterm elections; plus macro has been withdrawing liquidity, so institutional funds dare not enter at all.
ETF buying pressure can't hold off the selling pressure, it is estimated that before the midterm election results come out in November, the main trend will be a volatile decline.
Now BTC price is grinding along the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the next level to watch is 77,600 (real average price of active investors) down to 76,000 (200-day moving average).
$ETH continues to cling to the bottom of the 30-day range, 30-day position at 3.5%, RSI 31.8 remains oversold, all three moving averages pressing overhead (MA7/20/30 at 2397/2458/2535), down -13.8% this month with low volume, no sign of a bottoming trend.
$ZEC dropped the most today with a single-day -7.96%, considered a sharp drop from a high level, RSI has not yet reached the oversold zone. Moving averages MA7/20/30 are at 1199/1216/1291, but RSI 41.3 has not entered oversold, 30-day position 14.2% has not hit the monthly low, the -25.2% this month is mainly a retracement after a previous surge.
+20.41%
Snapshot at 24 Oct 2026, 14:44
It has broken down! Brothers, we have entered a downtrend. $BTC has broken the strong support level of 80,000 with high volume, $SOL has also smashed through the 100 mark, and $ETH has broken this month's low, entering the oversold zone…
Altcoins are even worse off than BTC; the only short-term hope is a technical rebound after overselling, don't expect a trend reversal.
BTC just broke the 30-day low (30-day position -12.1%), all three lines are pressing down on the top, RSI at 40.3 is not yet oversold, the 80,000 integer level has been broken, no support below, the next support is at 75,000.
ETH's RSI at 29.9 has officially entered the oversold zone, price is pressed at the bottom of the 30-day range, three lines suppressing and down 12.9% this month, it has entered a double death cross phase.
All of ETH's moving averages (MA7/MA20/MA30/MA50) are pressing down, all overhead, ETH is trapped in the moving average cage between 2400-2550; below there are only two long-term supports at 2215 and 2156.
SOL has also broken the 30-day floor, at the 30-day position -5.7%, RSI 33, today’s single-day drop of -5.08% is the worst, down 17.5% this month, breaking downwards with no technical support below.
+20.21%
Snapshot at 24 Oct 2026, 18:04
Weekend liquidity is really poor! Clearly, funds are all speculating on $BTC altcoin copies, but they just can't rescue other major coins, not even $BCH, which is also weak.
$XRP is the weakest and most oversold; BTC, although near the monthly bottom, has a controlled decline and looks more like it's consolidating; BCH is in the middle but also soft.
BCH faces triple resistance lines, MA7 is almost touching the current price of 279, RSI at 40.9 is not extreme but stuck at the lower edge of the 30-day range, at 16.7% on the 30-day position, weak but not collapsing, just lacking direction.
XRP is near the 30-day bottom, at 6.1% on the 30-day position, RSI 34.7 approaching oversold, triple resistance lines pressing down, and down 18% this month, making it the technically weakest among these three.
BTC is still pinned at the 30-day lowest level consolidating, at 0.2% on the 30-day position, triple resistance lines, RSI 42 neutral to weak, but only retraced 3.6% this month, showing sideways downward drift rather than a breakdown. The 80,000 integer level is a key observation point; breaking below it would trigger panic among retail investors.
All three meme coins are weak, only $PEPE is relatively better, while $DOGE has entered garbage time just like $TRUMP:
DOGE is grinding near its 30-day low, having hit this month's lowest point. All three moving averages are pressing down from above, RSI at 34.4 approaching oversold but without panic volume, a typical bearish setup with no signs of a bottom.
PEPE rose 30% in recent days, but today it dropped 13% in a single day back to the midline, sitting at 55.9% of the 30-day range. RSI is neutral at 53, MA7 has crossed down but MA20/30 still support it. It is a volatile dip without breaking support, a bit stronger than DOGE/TRUMP.
TRUMP has long been very weak, even worse than DOGE, stuck at the 30-day floor without moving, about to hit a new low this month again. Three moving averages suppress it, RSI at 38 slightly better but volume and price are weak, also showing no signs of a bottom.
-51.14%
Snapshot at 24 Oct 2026, 18:05
Damn, I just realized that tokenization of US stocks is not only opposed by 16 companies jointly, but even the consumer organization Better Markets wrote a letter to the SEC, requesting the SEC to revoke the exemption policy for tokenized stocks.
Better Markets is an investor protection organization established after the 2008 financial crisis, and before the approval of BTC's ETF in 2024, it also wrote to the SEC to request blocking the ETF.
If stock tokenization still has uncertainties, wouldn't those platform tokens be squeezed out of their bubbles?
$OKB currently has an RSI of 38.4, which is weak, with a 30-day range position of only 2.2%. Today's low of 109.07 is the 30-day lowest. MA20/MA30 (120.2/120.3) are far above, 9% higher, with a 14-day drop of 12.8%, showing a volume-light, slow bearish trend searching for a bottom.
$BNB has already stood back above MA7 (734) and is approaching MA20 (742), indicating it has recovered from the bottom. However, RSI at 46.4 returns to neutral, and the 30-day range is 30.7%, indicating the reversal is not yet confirmed.
$HYPE's technicals continue to stay grounded. RSI is 34.9, with less than 4% position in the monthly range, and the lowest on Friday touched 76.2. A monthly retracement of over 20%, these past two days have been grinding near the 77 floor, with volume-light slow bearish trend as the main theme.
+45.52%
Snapshot at 24 Oct 2026, 17:10
Sun Yuchen bought nearly 30 million worth of $PEPE, pulling PEPE up to a maximum of 30% in 6 days, once again validating Sun Ge's judgment.
So everyone dug up the matter of Sun Ge being bearish on $BTC and asked what should be done.
Actually, no need to panic:
1. Sun Ge is bearish on BTC from the perspective of quantum resistance, but this is actually to promote his own Tron chain's newly launched quantum-resistant technology, just publicity for his own business.
2. Sun Ge verbally says he is bearish on BTC, but in fact he hasn't sold any of his own BTC; he only sold $ETH to buy US stocks (NVIDIA, Nasdaq).
3. If BTC were really broken at low cost by quantum computers, the entire crypto circle would be wiped out with no exceptions, not that some coin's quantum resistance could replace BTC. The foundation of crypto is decentralization and on-chain transparency, not quantum resistance.
Of course, from a technical perspective: BTC is weakly consolidating above 80,000, RSI at 42.7, all three moving averages (MA7 82,100 / MA20 82,600 / MA30 83,200) are pressing down, and intraday volatility is only 1.9%;
ETH is the weakest, RSI 34.9, hugging the monthly low of 2317, unable to rebound above MA7 2416;
PEPE, however, is moving above the three moving averages MA7/MA20/MA30 with volume breakout, RSI 53.4, 30-day position 58%, the only one among the three whose structure has not broken.
+20.41%
Snapshot at 24 Oct 2026, 14:44
