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2026/10/3 "Li Li's Trading Notes" #001
A trader, simply because he refused to accept the first loss,
ended up losing over 800 million pounds, and also caused the collapse of a century-old bank.
His name is Nick Leeson.
The story actually starts very ordinarily:
A loss of about 10,000 pounds.
He didn't choose to admit the loss but hid it instead.
Because his thinking was actually very simple:
As long as the next trade makes it back, this never happened.
So, losing, he kept trading.
Still losing?
He increased his position size.
Trying to recover all previous losses in one go.
But what I find most terrifying in this story is not that his losses kept growing.
But—
In the middle, he actually once managed to recover the huge losses.
If the story stopped here, many might conclude:
See, as long as you have enough capital and can hold on, the market will always come back.
But it was precisely this "success" that gave the wrong method the most dangerous positive feedback.
Next time, he would believe even more:
I can still hold on and recover.
Until one day, the market never gave him a chance again.
In the end, losses exceeded 800 million pounds.
—— The breathing of large positions is more worth copying than direction. You think whales are betting on direction, but they're actually controlling the pace? After flipping through that string of position records these past two days, my first reaction wasn't "bullish or bearish," but rather—this person really knows how to reduce positions. On October 1, I bought 2,087,500 USD of BTC at 83,500 with 4.5x leverage. When the price reached 84,100, I immediately sold 2,102,500 USD, pocketing the principal first. The next day, it rebounded to 84,000, only covering 420,000 USD; It surged to 84,890, but only tentative 210 USD was sold, leaving room for imagination above. This morning, 84,469.7 minus 422,250 USD, then 84475.6 bought back 22,500 USD. The whole move was not a "all-in" or "clear" move; it was all sliced. I was a bit dazed watching because my own common mistakes were the opposite: either holding onto tightly and turning floating profits into a roller coaster; or cutting before the start when nervous. His rhythm actually said one thing—real big money doesn't predict tops and bottoms, only manages exposure. After a brief rise, proactively remove some risk; Back at key levels, then buy back in small amounts. This way, even if BTC suddenly inserts a needle, its psychology and margin won't be cornered. This transmission to the market is quite subtle. During those few reductions, short-term pressure will dampen the sharpness of the upward trend, making chasing highs uncomfortable; But every pullback has someone to buy, indicating the downside expectation hasn't faded. ETH and altcoins are even more obvious—as long as Bitcoin doesn't crash, funds dare to seek local flexibility, but once this "pull and subtract" trend turns into a collective trend,🔥 October 3rd $ZEC: Increased 6 times in a month, now paying off debt
Currently at $68.8, 24h +11.8%, daily range 50.2–72.4 — daily volatility over 40%. From $9.3 in early September, it surged wildly to $122 on October 1st, a 6-fold increase in a month, then dropped 40% in two days. This is not a correction, this is a crash.
① Why the rise? The privacy coin narrative collectively revived, Monero and Dash rose simultaneously; institutional side Grayscale's ZEC trust long product started trading, providing a compliant capital entry.
② Why the crash? Three words: no foundation.
RSI once surged to 92, extremely overbought, purely emotion-driven.
Whales dumped 5,000 coins (about $360,000) around $75, directly crashing the market.
Futures open interest dropped from 150 million to 90 million, 40% of long leverage was liquidated.
③ The most dangerous point: ZEC's current price is far above the mining breakeven point. Miner cost is about $310 per coin, and ZEC halves every three years, next in November — the halving expectation has been prematurely priced in.
Support: 50–55 (first line) → 35–40 (collapse level)
Resistance: 72.4 → 90
In short: don't catch this falling knife. A coin that rose 6 times in a month and halved in two days, no matter how strong the rebound, is a desperate escape wave
$BTC $ETH The 2TB hard drive is just a reference for today; the node threshold will continue to change depending on the condition
Common recommendations ethereum.org current node running guides include 2TB NVMe SSDs, with reminders that it may exceed this by 2027. Hard disk capacity is only one of the thresholds; random read/write performance, durability, memory, bandwidth, and synchronization methods all affect whether nodes can stably keep up with the chain. Buying consumer-grade drives with sufficient nominal capacity but consistently poor performance may expose problems during initial synchronization or state growth. Historical expiration and gas repricing can ease some storage pressure, while increased network usage brings new states; hardware requirements are not fixed forever. For $ETH demobilization, the key is not to keep nodes stuck in a single configuration forever, but that protocol growth speed must not suddenly leave ordinary operators behind. Node guidelines, client optimization, and state management must progress together. Assessing network health should also focus on synchronization times and device diversity, rather than just counting the number of online nodes.
Hardware costs should also be calculated over several years, not just the initial purchase. State growth, write lifespan, and backup requirements will determine whether nodes can remain long-term. The client's pruning ability also affects actual occupancy.#The US-Iran situation remains tense, and the G7 will release up to 100 million barrels of reserves
When I saw this news, my first reaction was not "oil prices will fall," but rather: the situation has become so serious that the G7 is starting to use strategic reserves to prop up the market.
On October 2, the G7 announced a coordinated release of about 100 million barrels of oil and diesel reserves through the IEA, starting immediately and lasting for 4 months, with a large amount of diesel concentrated in the first 20 days.
This indicates one thing:
What the market lacks is no longer sentiment, but real energy supply.
The US-Iran situation continues, the Strait of Hormuz is under pressure, and energy supply is beginning to affect diesel, transportation, and inflation.
And this is not the first time.
In March this year, the IEA already coordinated the release of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves, and about two-thirds of that round has been released so far.
So this 100 million barrels is essentially continuing to consume the global energy security buffer.
Short-term to suppress oil prices, long-term to buy time.
If Hormuz returns to normal, this 100 million barrels will be a buffer;
but if the situation continues to deteriorate, this 100 million barrels may be just a drop in the bucket.
And for $BTC, what’s more worth watching is:
Energy → Inflation → Interest rates → Liquidity → Risk assets.
So what I’m really focusing on now is not how much more oil the G7 can release, but:
When will Hormuz return to normal navigation.
Inventory can be released, but the supply gap will not disappear out of thin air.Thanks to the market finally giving back some old blood
Continuing to work tonight
Took a look at the chart below
This data just makes me mentally exhausted
But finally recovered some today
+1360.1
Went from -7600 down to -8827 then pulled back
The curve is finally turning upward
Feels good
October started off okay
1st +968
2nd -7600
3rd +1400
Big ups and downs
But today is finally in the green
This wave of short positions
The timing was pretty good
SAND dropped from 0.082
Caught a wave following it
Continuing to work tonight
Take profit when there’s gains
This month’s goal
First recover half the losses
Then talk about doubling up
Brothers
The feeling of recovering is really good
Keep steady
See you tonight
$SAND
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到