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[US Midterm Election XBTC Data]
The 2026 US midterm elections will be held on November 3 US time, corresponding to November 4 Beijing time.
This election will determine control of Congress. Whether the Republican Party can hold the House and Senate will directly affect the advancement of crypto legislation during the remainder of Trump's term, as well as whether Congress will intensify investigations into the Trump family's crypto businesses.
$BTC $ETH
BTC has only fallen 6.5% this year, whereas in the past three midterm elections, the decline before the election exceeded 50%. This year clearly does not replicate history…
Sharing is for progress, communication is for correcting cognition. Looking forward to different opinions and viewpoints. #奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点
I believe Netflix has a high probability of slightly beating expectations this quarter's earnings report, mainly for three reasons:
1. Stable profitability: In the past 8 quarters, EPS has exceeded expectations 7 times, indicating Netflix performs well in cost control and profit forecasting.
2. Supported revenue growth: Subscription business, advertising revenue, and continuously launched popular content are expected to drive revenue and profit growth.
3. Relatively cautious market expectations: The previous stock price adjustment and market concerns about slowing user growth and rising content costs have lowered the difficulty of beating earnings expectations.
Overall judgment: I subjectively estimate about a 65% probability that Netflix will beat expectations. However, beating earnings does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise; the real impact on the stock price also includes the Q4 earnings guidance and advertising business growth."Rally also queues up: SOL first, ETH second, BTC at the bottom"
Just now, the market surged wildly, SOL rose 3.46% to first place, ETH rose 2.63% to second, BTC only rose 0.99% at the bottom.
First, the essence: this wave is not a bull charge, but a short squeeze that started the fire🔥. In 24 hours, the whole network liquidated 258 million, shorts accounted for 63%, the largest single BTC short was 11.96 million, just liquidated at 83275. The macro environment is also favorable: US tech stocks stopped falling and rebounded, China's Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, risk appetite returned, and when shorts get squeezed, it turns into a stampede.
Why is SOL running first? The current price stands above 107, tomorrow night is the day it changes its "heart" (upgrade), funds are queuing up in advance; positions increased 1.79% in 1 hour, the fastest in the market, price and positions rising together, not just empty hype.
ETH ranks second due to crowded shorts: 55.16 million liquidated in 1 hour, the highest in the market; 63.98 million shorts liquidated in 24 hours, accounting for 75% of its liquidations, the fire burns first where it's most crowded; current price 2457, positions rising accordingly.
BTC at the bottom is not shameful: hovering at 82948, fee rate 0.0067% not hot, yesterday ETF net inflow 6417 units, the deepest base position, rising slowly but standing firm.
Cold water poured: in 5 minutes, active orders are still dominated by sellers, BTC sell orders 55%, ETH nearly 58%. During the rally, some are fighting and retreating, the queue is lively, those at the tail should not push forward.
My view in one sentence: whoever is the base position will be picked up first; I won't chase highs at the tail, I'll watch from the platform first 🤷.Let's start with a reality check: a $500,000 long position does not equal $500,000 worth of confidence. Monitoring shows that Core Trader 29 (0x51651b…dfb1e) opened a $XYZ100 long with 30x leverage, with a nominal position of about $500,200. What concerns me more is how much this position can withstand adverse moves, not just how intimidating the amount looks.
I'm not rushing to be bullish for two reasons. First, nominal value is not the same as principal; roughly calculated at 30x leverage, the initial margin corresponds to about $16,700, so it can't be treated as a heavy bet. Second, leverage makes the margin for error very thin: assuming no additional margin, a reverse move of about 3.3% would be enough to consume an amount equivalent to the initial margin; actual liquidation is also affected by maintenance margin and other factors. This is a risk estimate, not a known liquidation price. If the price moves against the position, the hardest hit will be the high-leverage longs with no buffer.
But I also admit this long position might be right. If the price continues to hold above this reference price of about $29,442 and can rebound after a pullback, I would reduce my bearish bias. For now, I am only questioning the margin for error, not asserting that it will fall. Facing this 30x long position, would you go long or short? Share your reasons: do you value directional judgment more, or the survival space during adverse price moves?#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix shares have accumulated a drop of nearly 20% so far this year; the market is beginning to value it more as a traditional and mature media company rather than as a platform of explosive technological growth.💻 I'll break down this message according to my code review habits. The input is: Hunter Biden posted on X that over 12% of LAPTOP tokens have been permanently burned, and another 30% are linked to real-world prediction events: if the prediction comes true, the tokens are burned; if not, they are donated to charity.
My judgment is that the $LAPTOP design is topical, but I'm more concerned about whether the rules can be verified. For now, I won't take "burning" directly as a positive. Reducing supply is one thing; whether there is sustained demand is another. You can't explain the entire system with just one variable.
Looking at the execution logic, the biggest bug is event determination: what counts as a prediction coming true, who confirms it, and what happens if there's a dispute? This information doesn't provide detailed rules. If the determination relies on unilateral interpretation, then the so-called conditional burn actually leaves room for manual result modification.
Another branch also needs review: donation is not the same as burning. If the donated tokens later re-enter circulation, their impact on supply differs from burning. This is my conditional deduction; you can't package both outcomes as "reducing circulation."
If it were me, I would require the event list, determination criteria, corresponding on-chain token records, and charity receiving arrangements to be made public before discussing mechanism launch. Please help me review: would you rather first verify the already burned 12%, or clarify the trigger rules for that 30%? Did I miss any key variables in my judgment?The absurd scene of a $58.79 million giant position: the profitable positions are bailing out the losing ones
The most ironic part of this portfolio is not the $3.58 million unrealized loss, but that the logic between the three positions has already fractured.
$BTC short position $20.02 million, 40x leverage, unrealized profit $480,000; $HYPE short position $21.35 million, 5x leverage, unrealized loss $3.58 million. One is making money, one is bleeding, and in between is an $ETH long position with an unrealized loss of $640,000. On the surface, it looks like "three positions restraining each other," but in reality, the most profitable short is underwriting the worst losing short.
Let's clear the accounts first.
$BTC short liquidation price is 104,048, current price hovers around 82,000, still more than $20,000 away from liquidation price. This short is not a "market defense" stance; it is a trend-following win. In the past 24 hours, short liquidations accounted for 71.7%, about $104 million in shorts were liquidated. $BTC bounced from 80.8K to 83.1K due to short covering, not long entry. It can't break above 83.3K, and 80.2K is dangerous. The daily chart is converging to the end, a reversal could come anytime, most likely downward. This $BTC short is currently the only position in the portfolio that doesn't need worry, but how long it can hold depends on when the other two stop bleeding.
The $ETH long is the quietly bleeding wound. Liquidation price 1644, current price near 2400, seemingly with a buffer of over $700, so it "can hold." But the $ETH spot ETF has had net outflows for four consecutive days, $103 million in a single day, with BlackRock's ETHA alone withdrawing $95.4 million. The price near 2400 relies on inertia, not buying pressure. A 25x leveraged long on an asset with continuous ETF fund outflows and a buying vacuum means the liquidation price does not represent safety, only slower pain.
$HYPE is the real problem. 5x leverage, 268,300 tokens, $21.35 million nominal exposure, unrealized loss $3.58 million. Liquidation price 97.98, current price 78-79, far from liquidation, so it won't "die" in the short term. But this is the most tormenting part: it won't kill you in one blow; it will bleed you slowly. On October 6, the team unlocked 3.75 million $HYPE, worth about $330 million, distributed OTC to five wallets. The daily volume is only 700 million, so a 330 million block is half a day's volume, causing supply-demand imbalance. Arthur Hayes sold 96,600 tokens worth $5.1 million a few days ago, while three weeks ago he was still shouting 126x. Even further overhead is the linear unlock of 237.8 million tokens starting late November 2025, nearly $500 million entering the market monthly. Current buyback capacity can only absorb about 17%. Grayscale is buying, net buying 7.8 million in 20 days, whales placed buy orders of 11.31 million at 74-77, but these buy orders are a drop in the bucket compared to the unlocking selling pressure. The problem with this $HYPE short is not whether the direction is right, but that you are holding a counter-trend position with 5x leverage, occupying margin, watching it drain money from your account daily. On-chain data already signals: on 7-day and 30-day scales, $HYPE shorts are the most concentrated losing direction among top traders, losing about $45 million in 7 days and $50 million in 30 days. You are not the only one bleeding on $HYPE shorts, but "others are losing too" is no reason to keep holding.
Now look at the "allies" of the $BTC short. An ancient whale holds 900 $BTC shorts, entry at 109,521, liquidation at 141,072, unrealized loss $1.1 million and still adding. In 24 hours, top traders' $BTC shorts account for 93%, 7-day 89%. Crowded shorts are not necessarily bad, but it means that the dense short liquidation zone between 82.75K and 83.5K, once triggered, will cause violent short squeezes. Your $BTC short has an unrealized profit of $480,000; it is the oxygen tank of the portfolio, but even oxygen tanks can be punctured. If 83.3K is broken with volume, the $480,000 unrealized profit will be lost faster than it was accumulated.
So the order of operational priorities is clear.
Reducing $HYPE is the first priority. Not because the direction is wrong, but because the opportunity cost is too high. $3.58 million unrealized loss plus ongoing funding costs result in a position that is hard to decline smoothly in the short term under unlocking pressure. Reducing some to free margin allows the $BTC short more depth to handle the 83.3K reversal, which is more rational than stubbornly holding a 5x short with a liquidation price far away but bleeding daily. Grayscale is buying, whales are placing orders; $HYPE can rebound, but shorts fear being forced into uncomfortable positions by a rebound before all bad news is out.
$ETH long is the second priority. The liquidation price of 1644 gives a "seemingly safe" illusion, but continuous ETF outflows and buying vacuum mean it lacks the ability to stand on its own. Reducing $ETH long is not surrender, but withdrawing 25x leverage from an asset without catalysts. The real time it needs to "hold" is when $BTC reverses downward and the portfolio needs margin buffer, not now.
Do not touch $BTC short. It is currently the only profitable position and the anchor of the portfolio. Before 83.3K is effectively broken, there is no reason to touch a position with $480,000 unrealized profit and liquidation price 20,000 feet away. But be clear: the profit of this short is being slowly eaten away by the bleeding of $HYPE and $ETH. In full margin mode, margin is shared; the money earned by one position is keeping the other two alive. This is the most fragile part of the $58.79 million portfolio.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 On Tuesday, European and American stock markets generally weakened, with major European indices all closing lower, Nasdaq and S&P futures declining simultaneously. The AI industry chain sector led the decline, with storage chips, optical communication, and semiconductor stocks falling prominently. Tech giants like Apple and Meta also retreated in tandem.
The market was mainly suppressed by three major negative factors:
1. Tensions in the Middle East caused oil prices to surge, with WTI crude oil surpassing $100 per barrel, reigniting inflation expectations;
2. Protests and riots broke out in multiple locations in France, increasing social uncertainty and suppressing risk appetite. Targeted curfews have been implemented locally;
3. Confidence in the AI sector wavered. Several AI infrastructure-related companies revealed operational and debt pressures, leading the market to question the return logic of massive AI capital expenditures. SoftBank's credit risk rose, and its stock price plummeted. If Tesla exceeds expectations this time, I want to see who exactly contributed to the surprise.
Focusing only on the final profit number in the entire financial report can easily mix up several situations: Is it that car sales became more profitable, energy storage contributions increased, or did some one-time income boost the results? They’re all called profit, but whether it can continue to be earned afterward makes a big difference.
Personally, I’m more looking forward to some good news on the automotive business costs. Prices can’t necessarily be raised arbitrarily, but if production and procurement can save costs, selling the same car could leave a bit more money. Of course, cost savings can’t come at the expense of products and services, or the quarter might look good but the next quarter will have to make up for it.
I’d be even happier if energy storage could contribute more gross profit. That way, when people talk about Tesla, besides delivery volume and new projects, they can also pay more attention to how much profit this other business segment actually made.
This time, I lean toward the chance of exceeding expectations, but I want to add a review to my judgment: after the financial report is released, break down the reasons for profit growth. I’m more willing to believe in money earned through normal operations; if it’s mainly one-time factors, just be happy for a moment and don’t directly use it to project every future quarter.
What I’m looking forward to is a financial report that, after looking at the numbers and details, can also reassure people.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Late at night, I was staring alone at $NFLX's Q3 earnings report, the screen glowing coldly.
From the first room came the sound of counting money—revenue expected around $12.86 billion, up about 12% year-over-year. It's not a ghost of user numbers, but whether content consumption can continue to convert into income. Multi-tier subscriptions and global content supply are like a door left ajar; the core business is still intact.
The second room was the loudest. The advertising business was knocking in the dark: low-price plans catch price-sensitive users, client expansion, inventory utilization, pricing improvements—if all advance simultaneously, advertising can grow from a "supplement" to a "growth driver." I heard someone behind the door say: Don't open it, opening it means one more growth point.
The third room was the quietest. Operating margin expected at 33.2%, higher than last year's 28.2%. Content, marketing, and amortization are all quietly eating costs; if revenue outpaces costs, profitability quality will continue to improve.
If all three points are realized simultaneously, this earnings report is not just "in line with expectations" but has upside potential.
But suddenly the screen flickered—the doors of all three rooms opened at once. #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 First, my judgment: slightly bullish. The key is not how impressive the earnings report is, but that the expectation threshold is abnormally low.
Expectations have been pushed to the floor: Q3 revenue guidance is $12.86 billion, EPS $0.82, almost exactly matching consensus expectations; in the past eight quarters, seven have beaten expectations, even a slight beat can trigger an upward move. Options implied volatility is about 10%, so even a small positive surprise can easily trigger short covering.
Profit margin is the real highlight: operating margin at 33.2%, up 5 percentage points year-over-year; about 1,000 layoffs, saving approximately $500 million annually.
Advertising supports the narrative: 2026 advertising revenue target is $3 billion, doubling year-over-year, with US Upfront commitments nearly doubling.
Chip structure is favorable: stock price around $70, down 25% year-to-date, approaching the 52-week low of $67.06, having fallen after five consecutive earnings reports; average target price about $93.
Trigger conditions: Q4 guidance above $13.3 billion, US viewing time no longer deteriorating, a possible corrective rally on October 21; if guidance is weak, the 9% drop in July could be repeated.
#奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 Breaking big news just out,
Pakistan's mediation proposal has received preliminary approval from both the US and Iran,
Iran's frozen fund interest is expected to be returned,
Geopolitical tension expectations are rapidly cooling down.
After the news landed, WTI crude oil plunged sharply from its highs,
Risk premium quickly faded.
The drop in crude oil means market risk appetite is rising, BTC followed suit and started to rally,
The 1-hour MACD golden cross expanded upward,
Rebounding from a low of 81166 all the way up to around 83333.
The core logic is very clear: geopolitical risk eases, funds withdraw from crude oil hedging positions and flow back into risk assets like BTC.
However, remember this is only preliminary agreement, not officially finalized yet. If the news fluctuates later, the market can easily reverse again. When chasing longs, be sure to control position size and strictly set stop losses.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Elon Musk and Tesla's 2025 compensation bet is divided into several major categories: market value, cumulative deliveries, active FSD, Robotaxi commercial use, Optimus deliveries, and adjusted EBITDA.
Among them, the market value is divided into 12 tiers, ranging from a minimum of 2 trillion to 8.5 trillion USD.
Then... Musk hasn't completed any of the items, with the worst progress items basically at 0, and the closest market value bet is still 38% short...
So, Elon Musk hasn't received a single cent yet 🥲#ETF continues outflows, can BTC rebound sustain? First, let's present a fact that contradicts this topic's premise. The previous trading day's flow reversed: U.S. spot Bitcoin products had a single-day net inflow of $527 million, the strongest day since late September, with the largest single product absorbing $665 million, more than the entire market combined. In the two weeks prior, the same metric showed net outflows of $681 million and $229 million. The turnaround happened in just one day. The funds are not withdrawing; they are selectively moving between products. There's a counterintuitive point here: on the days with the heaviest outflows, prices did not collapse simultaneously; the selling pressure was absorbed by buyers within the market. This pattern also appeared after March 2020, where the first batch of returning buyers acted during liquidity shocks, and the real market movement came later. What differs this time is that the interest rate environment hasn't eased; the 10-year yield remains above 5%, with risk-free returns higher than dividends, so the rebound slope will be much slower than in 2020. Don't apply that slope to the current situation. What concerns me more is the structure. Of the $527 million net inflow, one product took $665 million, meaning others are still bleeding—this kind of money is selective and can turn away at any time. A signal only counts after three consecutive days of net inflows; a single-day figure is just noise. BTC is now above 82,800, with spot product holders' average cost estimated between 81,500 and 82,300, meaning they have just climbed out of unrealized losses. Holding the 81,000 support level of this range,A company holding SOL reserves, after selling all SOL, is preparing to repurchase its own stock. Nasdaq-listed SkyAI (stock code SKYA, not the same token) disclosed on October 19: as of October 16, it has sold all SOL and holds approximately $223.8 million in cash.
The company launched a cash repurchase offer on October 16: common stock is offered at $3 per share, also covering three types of warrants, with a maximum purchase of 95% for each category. If fully subscribed, the purchase price will be about $201.3 million, paid from existing cash without borrowing. This amount is the offer cap, not money already spent.
The change is directly reflected in the conditions: the preliminary arrangement on October 11 originally required SOL price to remain above $100; after selling all SOL, the latest offer removed this coin price condition. The funding source changed from holding coins to cash, so the shareholder exit arrangement no longer depends on subsequent SOL price.
The offer still has minimum subscription and other conditions, planned to close late night New York time on October 29, but may be extended or terminated early. Next steps include verifying actual acceptance, payment, and remaining cash. Sales completed before October 16 cannot be counted as selling pressure pending today; the announcement also did not provide complete average selling price or profit and loss.
Source and original image: SkyAI company announcement on 10/19, reviewed on 10/20. Below is only the SOL spot market price. $SOL Just closed the long position on $ETH. Not a change of mind, just that this trade should be closed.
Entered around 2,400, today it surged to just above 2,440, right under the resistance. From the bottom to this hurdle, the profitable segment has already been realized; every step higher now has to contend with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, the risk-reward ratio isn't favorable.
More importantly, the nature of this rebound. It’s a recovery from an oversold condition, not the start of a new trend—ETF outflows have continued for three weeks, and institutional investors haven’t returned. For this kind of rebound, you should exit around the middle stage; don’t expect it to clear all the trapped positions above in one go.
But the bullish view remains unchanged. The 2,350 level has held twice, BitMine added more last week, holdings are close to 5% of circulating supply, and there’s a network upgrade at the end of the month. These are all future events.
So taking profits and being bearish are two different things. This trade is done; unrealized gains only count once converted to cash. To re-enter, either wait for a volume-backed break above 2,480 or a pullback to 2,350 to reassess. $BTC rakes in $526 million ETF, $ETH loses $130 million, ZEC shorts buried alive at 1224
Tonight as the US stock market opened, the major indices surged sharply. BTC broke through 83,000, ETH pulled up to 2465, SOL approached 108, but behind this rally, the capital flow was extremely fragmented.
In the past 24 hours, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $526 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone injecting $665 million, making up for the losses of the past two weeks in one go. But at the same time, the Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of $133 million, with BlackRock's ETHA withdrawing $95.4 million. BTC is attracting funds, $ETH is bleeding, yet prices are rising together — indicating that tonight's rally is not driven by the slow-moving ETF institutions, but by shorts in the futures market being cornered.
$ZEC is the craziest tonight. It surged from 1138 to 1224, an 8.84% increase. The Zakura team just submitted a quantum-resistant cross-chain privacy solution, the NU7 mainnet upgrade results are out today, and shorts between 1180 and 1224 were completely swept away. Paradigm co-founder openly disclosed investment in ZEC, saying long-term verbally, but the market rally is a salute.
Tom Lee hasn't been idle either; BitMine chairman publicly said "ETH at $10,000 is still too low." Such remarks are to be taken lightly, but combined with tonight's ETH short squeeze, retail investor sentiment is indeed ignited.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 The US stock market has only been open for a little over forty minutes, and the market has already put on a show of a sudden surge. Brothers who were still hesitating whether to cut losses during the day, are your thighs bruised by now? BTC made a big bullish candle, shooting straight from 81K back to 83K. This sudden attack was too fierce.
First, look at $BTC, currently around 82,800, up nearly 1.12%, with the 15-minute chart shooting up! Notice the 4-hour open interest; during this rally, it’s actually decreasing. What does this mean? A large number of short sellers were forced out, and stop-loss buy orders pushed the price up, a classic short squeeze.
Next, $ETH’s rebound is the strongest, shooting straight to 2,450. But be careful, brothers, don’t get carried away! The 4-hour long-short ratio has surged to 2.59, retail bulls are extremely crowded and chasing the rally wildly. Under this sentiment, it’s very easy to fall into a trap set by manipulative traders for a shakeout.
Finally, $SOL also closed with a big bullish candle at 107.2. The 4-hour long-short ratio reached 2.33, similarly showing high retail bullish sentiment. There is obvious resistance near 108, so don’t blindly chase.
Summary: This rally is driven by US stock market funds entering and a short squeeze triggered by short sellers’ panic. But bullish sentiment is too hot. I still won’t chase the highs. After a sharp rise, there’s a high probability of a pullback and shakeout. Wait for it to stabilize before looking for opportunities.
#加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ The 60-day net position of Bitcoin whales has just flipped from -62,600 BTC to +5,230 BTC.
This is a key reversal spotted by CryptoQuant today: large holders with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have ended their continuous net selling and have turned back to accumulation. However, the spot market has not followed at all—Coinbase premium index is stuck at -0.1416%, and short-term holder SOPR remains at 0.9982, still cutting losses below the break-even line.
What changed? Whales switched from "selling" to "buying," but the US spot buying did not respond in sync, with the premium index even dropping to its lowest since the end of June.
Why is this worth attention? Whales are usually the most sensitive money on-chain; they move first, but if the spot market doesn’t follow, the market lacks a leg to stand on. Meanwhile, in the past 24 hours, $109 million worth of long positions were liquidated across the network, with Bitcoin longs accounting for $29.44 million. Short-term leveraged longs are being cleaned out. On one side, large holders are accumulating chips; on the other, retail leverage is being cleared—bottom structure is improving, but confirmation has not yet been given.
Which observation is currently more supported? It leans more towards a transition from "seller exhaustion" to "potential bottom building," rather than a confirmed reversal. The focus going forward is on two things: whether the Coinbase premium index can turn positive, and whether the STH-SOPR can rise above 1. Only when these two signals appear simultaneously can the whales’ accumulation be truly supported by the spot market.
$BTC Just put the baby to sleep, the bottle hasn't finished washing, and I came across Core Trader 29 (0x51651b…dfb1e) opening a long position on $XYZ100 with 30x leverage, nominal position about $500,200. Seeing this number, I first steadied the cup in my hand 🍼
My thought is: just because a whale dares to go long doesn't mean this position is suitable for me to copy. This is an opening position, not a profit report; it only shows he chose a long direction, but doesn't prove the timing is right.
Roughly calculating margin by dividing nominal value by leverage, the margin corresponds to about $16,700, but the actual amount depends on the margin mode and account situation. If the price moves 1% against the position, the loss would be about $5,002, which is about 30% of the estimated margin above. The position looks impressive, but the volatility pressure behind it is real money.
For someone like me with small capital, I would first consider the maximum loss I can bear before thinking about position size, rather than using the family's spare expenses to match the whale's courage. Also, the baby might wake up anytime, so watching the market will be interrupted. My reaction speed is slow even when grabbing diaper coupons, so I can't treat timely operation as risk control.
For friends who also have kids or work, when you see such a 30x leverage opening alert, do you set a reminder to check when free, or just avoid it when busy? How long do you allow yourself "no screen time"?$TSLA Tesla Q3 Earnings Preview
Tesla will release its Q3 earnings after the U.S. market close on October 21.
Currently, Wall Street consensus expectations are roughly:
Revenue: $27.9–28.0 billion
Adjusted EPS: $0.44–0.45
My forecast: EPS will miss expectations, revenue may meet or slightly exceed expectations, but not enough to change the overall view of profit pressure.
This is mainly based on the following three factors:
① Delivery volume exceeds expectations, but profitability quality is questionable
Q3 actual deliveries were 486,532 vehicles, about 5.3% above previous analyst expectations, but still down 2.1% year-over-year.
② Automotive business profit margins still under pressure
Tesla's automotive business continues to face price competition, and market expectations for this quarter's profitability have been revised downward.
Data from Zacks shows that the consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days has been lowered from about $0.47 to $0.44.
Even with lowered expectations, I still believe the market may be underestimating promotional costs and the impact of the vehicle product mix on margins.
③ Energy storage business may not fully offset automotive business pressure
Q3 energy storage deployment was 13.7 GWh, below the previous analyst expectation of 15.9 GWh.
Final judgment:
I expect Q3 adjusted EPS to be in the range of $0.40–0.43, below the current market expectation of about $0.44–0.45.
#OKX US Earnings SeasonThis short position is biased bearish, but I don't count it as following the trend for now—having a bearish action doesn't equal a downtrend. I just saw Core Trader 64 open a new $ETH short with 20x leverage, nominal value about $244,300. This is a bet; the outcome is not yet known.
My first rule for trend trading: first look at the price structure, then see who is placing the orders. The data doesn't explain the previous trend or market sentiment; judging from a single wallet opening a short, you can't tell if it's following the trend or going against an upward top test. The address can be observed, but the direction can't be copied blindly.
Second: leverage doesn't replace judgment courage. 20x means about a 5% price move against you can wipe out the initial margin; actual liquidation depends on maintenance margin and other factors. Even if the direction is right, it might not withstand a mid-way rebound.
Third: if the trend isn't confirmed, better to trade less. If the price continues to weaken and rebounds can't reverse the structure, then I would classify this short as a trend-following trade; if the price keeps strengthening, it bears the risk of going against the trend. These are my observation criteria, not market predictions.
The trend is the best friend; my attitude is still to wait for confirmation and not make judgments based on others' positions. Facing such high-leverage shorts, what methods do you all use now to confirm the trend: moving average alignment, previous highs and lows, or volume coordination?#亚马逊AWS增长提速，Q3能否延续？
Looking around current market expectations, this is quite interesting. In the prediction market, 71% of people bet that Amazon will exceed expectations, but this is actually a big trap. There's an old saying in our crypto circle: once good news is expected by everyone, it’s no longer good news. If the earnings report is just "okay" or only slightly better, the stock price will most likely plunge sharply as the "good news is fully priced in" effect kicks in. The real focus is on how management will guide the next quarter.
Now, looking at the fundamentals. AWS cloud and advertising revenue are indeed still growing, but AI infrastructure is burning a lot of cash, putting huge pressure on free cash flow. More importantly, S&P just hinted that the potential AI-related liabilities of tech giants might be much higher than everyone realizes. Although the rating hasn't been downgraded yet, it’s like a thunderbolt hanging overhead, ready to strike at any moment.
What’s the impact?
First, the sentiment transmission in tech stocks is unavoidable. If Amazon’s stock is hammered due to heavy AI spending and poor cash flow, the valuations of the entire US tech sector will be dragged down.
Second, the reckoning for AI investments has arrived. Have you noticed? Now, whether it’s Meta, Google, or Amazon, as soon as earnings come out, everyone is watching "whether your AI investments can really turn into cold hard cash." Traditional giants are being scrutinized, and those crypto projects that haven’t even launched a real product and are just riding the AI hype with whitepapers are doomed. Capital will only cluster around compute power projects with real cash flow.
What’s your take? Market status as of 22:00: ZEC climbed from the 1,137 level at 19:00 all the way up to 1,226, dropping 7.8% over three hours, then the last hourly candle added 3.7%, with an intraday high of 1,229.98. The trigger point is very clear—on October 20, developers reviewed the results from the NU7 testnet as planned and set the mainnet activation height; the mainnet launch is tentatively scheduled for November 5, with block times reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and 60% of each block's fees going into the reserve pool. There is a counterintuitive aspect here: this move was not driven by leveraged longs. The perpetual funding rate is only 0.008%, nearly zero, indicating longs are not paying a premium to hold; over 24 hours, liquidations were mostly shorts, totaling $268,000, while longs were only liquidated for just over $500. The long-short ratio is 0.816—retail accounts are still on the short side. The price was pushed up by an extremely thin order book, with a batch of traders on the wrong side being taken out, not by new money flowing in. The background needs to be clear: since the peak of 1,684 at the end of September, this asset has dropped by a quarter to a third; on October 15 alone, it fell 10.7%, with nearly $17.9 million in long positions liquidated; product-side net outflows continued until October 19, totaling $10.4 million. So what I am describing is a correction, not a trend reversal—the 1,240 to 1,250 range above is a dense trading zone from mid-October, where the first wave was pressed down eight or nine times out of ten. It feels like big money is positioning defensively as ETF outflows continue and the market struggles to sustain its rebound. But heavy short positioning doesn’t automatically mean prices must fall. Crowded shorts can also fuel a sharp squeeze if spot demand returns. For BTC, watch whether buyers can reclaim key resistance. For ETH, monitor ETF flows and whether it can regain relative strength. The real question is whether institutional selling is accelerating or the market is simply building liqGermany’s savings bank system is expanding access to BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL through banking apps, potentially reaching around 40 million customers. But access doesn’t equal actual buying pressure. The key distinction is simple: adoption infrastructure is not the same as immediate capital inflows. For BTC, the real signals remain spot demand, trading volume, and the ability to reclaim key resistance levels. This is a long-term adoption positive, but not yet a confirmed short-term bullish catalystJPMorgan’s JPMD deposit token is moving onto Ethereum mainnet, a potential step toward institutional blockchain settlement. But the reported contract data shows zero holders, supply, and transfers, so deployment alone doesn’t prove meaningful adoption. The bigger question: will banks actually move significant capital on-chain, or will Ethereum mainly serve as settlement infrastructure while ETH captures limited immediate value? Institutional infrastructure is a long-term signal, not an instant pIris Coin rose 9%, but banks have not yet agreed to pay.
On 10/18, World launched the World ID suite for banks: identity wallet, Zoom deepfake detection, AI agent, with design partners VanEck and Bain Capital, which is quite significant.
WLD touched $0.55 today, up nearly 9% for the day, hitting a one-week high, with market cap returning to about $2 billion.
But two things don't add up: first, no bank has announced actually starting to use it; what was released is a "suite," not "clients"; second, perpetual positions are close to 40% of market cap, the 8-hour funding rate is negative, and part of today's rise is short covering, with $1.08 million in shorts liquidated in 24 hours.
Technically, the price is still grinding inside a triangle; the $0.58 SAR and $0.60 downtrend line above have not been broken, and below, watch the 20-day line at $0.51.
I think this is a typical "concept first, adoption absent" short squeeze; chasing the high is like paying the bill for the design partner list, so observe and don't chase—invalidated if real bank clients go live or daily closes above $0.60.
If the banking identity path works out, do you think it's the key for WLD to take off, or just another wave of concept hype that will fade?
$WLD $BTC $ETH
#Worldcoin #WorldIDXRP moved 6 billion tokens to exchanges in one month, the highest in 7 months. However, whales are withdrawing at the lowest rate in 5 years — big holders are no longer accepting. ETF purchases have basically stopped this month as well. Money is piling up at the exchange entrances; is this for selling or just relocating? Do you think XRP can hold at 1.3 this time?#October FOMC Approaches, What Variables Remain for the Fed's Pause on Rate Hikes? **The Biggest Wild Card May Be One Person: Trump. 🇺🇸** With the October FOMC meeting approaching, uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next move remains in focus. But beyond inflation, interest rates, and liquidity, another factor could influence market sentiment: the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections. If Trump’s side suffers losses and Democrats gain control of the House or both chambers, which crypto-related sectors could feel the impact? 🔴 **1. Trump-Linked Meme The most aggressive aspect of this Swiss Bitcoin ETF is that it obtained an exemption.
According to the usual diversification rules, a single-asset product would never pass approval. The reason for regulatory approval this time is straightforward: Bitcoin has a long trading history and sufficient trading volume, so it is allowed to bypass diversification requirements.
The U.S. is already ahead. The spot ETF approved in January 2024 now manages about $65 billion, while this Swiss one is starting from zero, and the issuer's name hasn't even been disclosed yet.
Don't expect a surge from just one approval. But European crypto funds are very likely to shift from "special approval" to "routine," and this change will take two to three years to become apparent.
$BTC¥665 million single-day inflow into Bitcoin ETFs, BlackRock IBIT records the largest inflow in nearly a year.
Observed: US spot BTC ETF net inflow on Monday was ¥527 million, the largest single-day in nearly a month.
But all of it was from IBIT alone with ¥665 million; Fidelity outflowed ¥83.6 million, Grayscale outflowed ¥54.9 million, and other funds had zero inflow.
October cumulative still shows a net outflow of ¥90.5 million; ETH is worse, being sold off for the fourth consecutive day, with ¥103 million flowing out.
My view: This is not a market-wide recovery, but BlackRock alone bottom-fishing — the more concentrated the demand, the more the fragility is hidden.
The price does not confirm this: BTC fell back to $81,942, failing to hold $83,000, with three consecutive days of rally and pullback.
My action: Observe, do not chase. If the 4-hour close stands above $83,158, it turns strong looking at $84,000; if it breaks below today's low of $81,200, look at $80,000.
Invalidation: If ETF inflows continue at the ¥500 million level for two more consecutive days and close above $83,158, then I admit I was wrong.
Do you believe this is the start of institutional bottom-fishing, or just BlackRock's solo act?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Bitcoin #EarningsSeason $SNDK SanDisk: The key battleground is at 1400; until it is reclaimed, the outlook remains weak
The ceiling for this rebound is very clear—1400. Last night, bulls pushed up to 1408, just short of the mark, but the 30-minute level never managed to turn this position into support, and the price fell back to close at 1371 by the end of the session. The failed breakout indicates that selling pressure above remains heavy, so no short-term strength can be claimed.
Interestingly, my judgment yesterday was "if it holds above 1400, look to 1485; if not, fall back to 1300," but the actual movement was stuck in between: there was a pullback, but the pre-market low only dipped to 1325, still some distance from 1300. So the short-term target of 1300 is withdrawn for now, and 1312 is raised as the first observation point—that is the nearest current support.
Next, watch two lines:
1. For the bulls to turn the tide, the only way is for the 30-minute closing price to hold above 1400; only then can 1485 be considered.
2. Before that, all rallies should be treated as rebounds. If 1312 holds, it’s a consolidation and bottoming process; once broken, testing 1300 is only a matter of time, and below that, support around 1280 will be the next focus.
In short: no bottom guessing below 1400; until it is reclaimed, the initiative remains firmly in the hands of the bears. To pour some cold water first, kPEPE rising doesn't mean chasing longs is worthwhile. Hyperliquid perpetual contract public market data shows that the current highest absolute funding rate is for $kPEPE, with a positive rate of 0.0051% per hour, roughly 45% annualized, and a 24-hour increase of 9.41%. I tend to see this as a crowded risk warning rather than a new bullish reason.
I'm focusing on two issues: first, a positive funding rate means longs pay shorts; if this level persists, long positions will continuously bear costs, and if the price doesn't keep strengthening, the holding experience will be discounted; second, the "approximately 45% annualized" is just calculated based on the current rate, not a locked-in return. This single moment's data neither proves that buying pressure can continue nor that shorting can reliably collect fees. Treating a high funding rate as a heat certification or as a short squeeze machine, I think, is a misreading.
Of course, the bulls could be right, and a strong market can continue with high funding rates. If the funding rate later falls but the price doesn't weaken significantly, I will reduce my caution about crowded risk and reassess the strength; this is my observation condition, not something that has already happened. With this set of data, do you stand long or short? Share your reasons: do you value the continuation of the rise more, or the pressure of longs paying fees?BTCFi's Most Embarrassing Night: Hashrate Protects the Ledger, But Not the CORE Reward Logic
There has long been a misconception in the BTCFi space: as long as it relies on Bitcoin's hashrate, the entire ecosystem is secure enough. The August 31 incident shattered this illusion, revealing the harsh truth of layered risks.
Throughout the turmoil, Bitcoin mainnet hashrate remained stable, the ledger was not tampered with, users' staked BTC stayed in Bitcoin addresses with private keys self-held, so there was no risk of theft. The hashrate protected the underlying BTC ledger security, blocking hacker coin theft attacks.
The vulnerability emerged in the Core layer's EVM reward contract, where a few validators exploited code flaws to repeatedly claim block rewards, excessively minting CORE tokens. The project team hard-forked to destroy 186 million illicit tokens, but 69 million chips had already entered the market and could not be recovered, disrupting the original inflation release curve and diluting all token holders' equity.
Hashrate only ensures ledger authenticity but cannot constrain reward distribution logic, node behavior, or token economics. Principal security does not equal token value security. For BTCFi to mature, Bitcoin hashrate is just the security foundation; contract audits, token models, and node checks and balances are all indispensable.Revenue growth does not equal more profitable products. A company selling more might just be expanding its scale; what truly determines "how much ammunition is left for every 100 yuan sold" is the gross margin — the profit margin remaining after deducting direct costs. This financial common sense is precisely the valuation watershed that the current market most easily overlooks. Here's the most straightforward example: revenue of 100 yuan, direct costs of 40 yuan, gross profit of 60 yuan, gross margin 60%. This 60 yuan must then cover R&D, sales, and management before net profit is reached. So gross margin reflects not how much is sold, but how thick the product's "underlying profit space" is.🔢 When reading financial reports, gross margin should be examined in three ways: first, the trend — continuous improvement means the gross profit left per 100 yuan of revenue is increasing, continuous decline warns of profit space erosion; second, the cause — whether it’s a change in selling price, direct costs, or product mix; third, comparison — gross margin varies greatly across different business models, so horizontal comparison with peers and vertical comparison with own history are meaningful. This logic is equally sharp in the crypto market. $BTC's "revenue" is on-chain settlement volume and fees, $ETH's "direct costs" are block space and validation costs, $SOL competes on unit economics under high-frequency trading throughput, and Layer 2s like $OP, $ARB, $ZK, $STRK face the scissors difference between sequencer income and data availability costs. No matter how loud the revenue story is told, gross margin is the true measure of who is genuinely accumulating value. 💡 One sentence to share: revenue tells you On October 20, Nasdaq rose 0.85% in the first 30 minutes of trading, with Micron, Intel, and AMD up 4%-7%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ending an eight-day losing streak. Bitcoin, however, remained flat—Binance reported $81,958, up only 0.29% in 24 hours, while Upbit's converted price even fell 0.20%.
Oil prices fell from $110 to $107, and the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from over 50% to about 15%. Although financing costs for AI and semiconductors have risen, revenue growth is enough to offset this. The S&P technology sector has risen nearly 20% this year, with the market recognizing the fundamentals. Bitcoin has no cash flow. With U.S. Treasury yields at 5.14% and Brent crude at $109, the opportunity cost of holding zero-coupon assets has been pushed very high—if risk-free yields are 5%, why hold coins that generate no income?
The $83,000 resistance has been tested multiple times without success. When altcoins rebounded on October 16, Bitcoin also did not break through, indicating heavy selling pressure.
The $77,905 support is a key level from the sharp drop on October 14, when over $1.372 billion in long positions were forcibly liquidated there; breaking below this could trigger a new round of liquidations.
This middle range of price volatility will continue to compress volatility until one side is forcibly broken, before interest rates and oil prices clearly reverse. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged on October 28 is about 87%, but the chance of a rate hike in December remains as high as 75%—this uncertainty itself is the reason for the sideways market.
On the macro side: Federal Reserve decision on October 28; U.S. crude oil inventory on October 20 (which will determine whether oil prices can return above $110); 1Reviewing today, my first reaction wasn’t “NU7 countdown,” but rather: with so many people focused on October 20, could it be exactly the window the main players use to manipulate the market? 🤔
Retail investors watch the calendar waiting for the payoff, while the main players prefer to act before the payoff. They pull the price up first, then slam it back down; when expectations get confused, the chips loosen. 😮💨
Looking at ZEC on the 4-hour chart: it bounced from 1048 to 1164, seeming to stabilize? But volume has clearly shrunk. The EMA20 above near 1144 is pressing down; when it tries to break through, it gets pushed back; MACD shows red bars below zero, but the strength isn’t enough. 📉
This pattern looks more like a bearish continuation than a reversal. ⚠️
NU7’s final decision won’t come until October 20, with the mainnet target on November 5. But Grayscale ZCSH’s ETF funds saw a net outflow of $1.7 million on October 12, and another $1.2197 million outflow on October 17. Institutions are withdrawing, retail investors are waiting. 💸
Who’s clearer-headed? Don’t just watch the date—look at the funds and the structure first. 👀#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 A piece of news that few people have deeply considered: The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has directly banned the federal government from purchasing products from DeepSeek and has also demanded their complete removal from systems.
The screen is full of people treating AI as the only certainty for the next decade, but look, this track is splitting from a "technology story" into a "geopolitical battlefield," with one side pouring money into expansion and the other mutually blacklisting and blocking. Mixing so many political variables into certainty and still valuing it based on "linear perpetual growth"—isn't that a bit naive?
AI will not disappear, but the optimistic assumptions used to price it are being pierced one by one by reality.BTC just formed a strong bullish candlestick within 1 minute, surging from 81,281.6 straight up to 82,455.5, a rise of over $1,100, catching the shorts off guard at this level.
What changed? The price volume surged near 81,495, with a noticeable increase in volume bars, and the 1-minute MACD golden cross triggered rapid expansion of the red bars. The key trigger was oil prices retreating from a five-month high and U.S. stock futures turning positive pre-market, briefly boosting risk appetite, with funds leveraging this momentum to push the price into a liquidation-heavy zone.
Why is this change worth noting? The 82,500 to 83,000 range is not an ordinary resistance level; the liquidation heatmap shows a large accumulation of short stop-losses and leveraged positions creating a liquidity gap here. When the price enters this area, the question is not about the probability of a breakout, but whether the buyback path forced by shorts covering is triggered. The first layer of liquidity above is between 82,500-83,000, and the second layer is near 84,500, with very different trigger costs between the two.
Which observation is currently more supported? It favors a short-term impulse driven by macro sentiment recovery combined with short liquidation, rather than confirmation of a trend reversal. Continuous inflows of $527 million into spot ETFs signal a bottom, but sustained support above 82,500 is the key.
Next, focus on two things: whether the 82,500-83,000 range will see a pullback confirmation or a direct volume breakout; and whether the sentiment in tech stocks after the U.S. market opens can sustain this wave of risk appetite recovery.
$BTC To be honest, I used to easily get carried away by "large financing + high dividends," with only "funds are coming in" on my mind, treating financing news directly as a market signal. Looking back now, what I should have guarded against most was not missing the news, but hastily leveraging myself without fully understanding it.
This time, Strive's preferred stock SATS completed a $630 million IPO and was listed on Nasdaq. The raised funds will be used to increase holdings of Bitcoin and other income-generating assets. It offers a 15% annual fixed dividend, paid daily, with the first payment expected on November 9; here, SATS is the preferred stock ticker, not the token of the same name.
My judgment is that this is somewhat positive for Bitcoin's funding channels, but it cannot be directly equated with short-term buying pressure. The fundraising purpose is not only Bitcoin, so you can't count the entire $630 million as money about to be used to buy $BTC; the fixed dividend is also a company payment obligation, not a guarantee of asset returns.
This reminds me of the market atmosphere of "institutions are coming, just blindly follow." Ordinary people are most likely to string together IPOs, financing, buying coins, and price increases as an inevitable chain, without questioning any of the conditions in between.
I now follow two rules: first, look at the use of funds and product terms before discussing the size of the positive impact; second, do not leverage up temporarily because of a financing news. Has anyone had the experience of mistaking institutional financing for a buy-the-rally signal? Would you be willing to share one of your own rules?美国房地产数据跌至“历史冰点”，美联储的降息遮羞布还能撑多久？ 刚刚公布的美国9月成屋签约销售数据，给本已脆弱的宏观预期投下了一枚重磅炸弹。月率录得 -7.3%（预期 -0.5%，前值 0.3%），年率 -12.6%（预期 -3.9%），成屋签约销售指数绝对值降至 66，直接创下该数据有记录以来的历史最低水平。 房地产是美国经济最核心的支柱之一，其持续降温正在重塑整个大类资产的定价逻辑。 🏚️ 历史冰点背后：7.4%高利率的“绞杀” 数据暴跌的核心原因，直指接近极值的高房贷利率。目前美国30年期固定抵押贷款利率已飙升至 7.4%，创下近三年来的最高水平。高借贷成本将大量购房者直接踢出局，全美50个主要都市区的待售签约量出现同比全面下跌，这是自2023年9月以来首次。接近五分之一的卖家开始降价，约14.5%的购房合同最终取消，均创下历史纪录。 📉 倒逼美联储：降息从“可能”变成“必须” 这份数据给美联储敲响了警钟。NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun直言：“在通胀走软、就业增长减弱的情况下，美联储根本无法继续加息”。NAR住房可负担性指标已降至1989年以来的最低点。房地产的硬Switzerland has incorporated Bitcoin into the public fund framework
On October 20, the first Bitcoin ETF aimed at the general public was approved, directly investing in BTC. Previously, only ETPs existed locally, without fund status; this is the first time.
The details are key: a single asset normally wouldn't meet diversification requirements, but this time it got an exemption due to "sufficient trading history and active trading"; custody rules were also added, stating that client assets are not considered bankruptcy assets if the institution goes bankrupt.
However, approval does not equal buying demand; the issuer and listing date have not been announced.
The real highlight is the channel: long-term funds like pensions and insurance can only allocate to funds and cannot hold private keys. Now that the door is open, slow money can finally come in.
$BTCA large position does not equal a big trend; this whale's moves are the easiest to misinterpret. Adding to a losing position— is it conviction or being pushed by the market? Looking at ZEC's on-chain activity these past two days, my first reaction wasn't "it's about to fly," but rather to hold back excitement. In the past three hours, a major holder dumped another $7.2 million, buying an additional 6,126 ZEC, raising their position by 57.5%. The details are quite meticulous: using TWAP to slowly accumulate at an average price of about $1,176, now holding close to 17,000 ZEC, with a notional value near $20 million.✨ But what’s really worth watching isn’t "how much was bought," but "why they are buying now." This person currently has an unrealized loss of over $300,000, with a liquidation price at 838, still some distance from the current price, so they can hold. They started touching ZEC in July, built the position in September, and haven’t sold a single coin since, also holding NEAR and PUMP casually, with ZEC accounting for 65.8% of their total holdings. This structure indicates they are not a short-term trader but more like betting on a narrative that the market hasn’t fully priced in yet. I tend to interpret this as an early bet on an "event repricing" rather than a simple bullish signal. Large capital willing to keep averaging down in a losing position usually means they judge that some future catalyst will change ZEC’s valuation anchor. The problem is, the market is currently trading on the expectation that "smart money moved first," not the catalyst itself. Once the expectation is priced in early, the actual news later can easily turn into a sell-the-news event. This translates to the market, BTC and EAs the US stock market just opened, the biggest decliners are none other than storage stocks: SK Hynix down 3%, Micron and SanDisk also dropping. Just yesterday, the screen was full of calls saying "storage has bottomed, now is the buying zone," but today that leg is already weakening.
My current AI deleveraging short position heavily targets storage, with one logic: cryptocurrencies are sentiment assets, but storage chips are the real hard cash tied to AI capital expenditures. Sentiment can rebound in a day, but capex bills can't be dodged.
One day of gains doesn't mean a trend reversal; how many times have big influencers called the bottom? Do you trust the market or those voices more? SNDK at $1350, do you still dare to chase?
From 2354 down to 1250, halved and then rebounded to 1350, analysts shout a target price of 2400, but RSI is only 35, MACD shows a bearish alignment—Is this wave really the golden pit of AI storage, or the last bull trap before the cyclical stock tops out?
Let's look at the surface first: after a sharp drop, someone is buying.
Sandisk, the NAND flash memory leader, spun off from Western Digital.
From the June high of 2354, it crashed all the way down to around 1250, a drop of nearly 50%. Now it’s consolidating at 1350, with a 24-hour range of 1320-1380, RSI weak at 35, MACD bearish, price above the 200-day moving average but tightly suppressed by the 20/50-day moving averages. Short-term bearish bias, but fundamentals are supporting.
First: Is the AI storage super cycle real or just a story?
FY2026 revenue about $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year.
Net profit about $11.4 billion, gross margin hitting 84-85%.
Data center SSD demand is off the charts—KV cache, inference, agentic AI, all consuming NAND.
Signed long-term contracts with a floor pricing of $93.9 billion, plus financial guarantees.
But SNDK is essentially a cyclical stock. No matter how strong AI demand is, NAND prices have their ups and downs. Up 175% in 2026, what about next year? The year after?
The most dangerous time for cyclical stocks is when everyone thinks "this time is different."
Second: Technicals and fundamentals are clashing.
Fundamentals say: AI storage demand is solid, long-term contracts create a deep moat, valuation isn’t expensive based on forward EPS, analysts are collectively bullish.
Technicals say: From 2354 down to 1250, a 47% drop. Price below 20/50-day moving averages, MACD bearish, RSI weak at 35. Daily and weekly charts bearish, 4H neutral. Funding rates mostly positive—longs are crowded and paying to hold positions. What’s divergence? This is it.
The better the fundamentals, the weaker the technicals, indicating the market is pricing in an early expectation of a "cycle top."
Third: The October 29 earnings report, catalyst or bomb?
Earnings guidance: revenue $10.3-10.8 billion, EPS $44-46.
Sounds good?
But you must know—SNDK has risen hundreds of times from its low, with very high beta. Good earnings might trigger a rally; disappointing earnings or conservative guidance could smash it below 1300.
Also, funding rates are positive, making long positions costly. Perpetual open interest on Binance is about $200 million+, longs are crowded. If someone rushes to exit before earnings, the stampede could be worse than altcoins.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
AI storage super cycle, NAND shortage until 2027-2028
$93.9 billion long-term contracts with floor pricing moat
S&P upgraded to BBB, analyst target prices over 2000
Above 200-day moving average, mid-to-long-term trend intact
Strong earnings expectations for October 29
On the other side:
From 2354 down to 1250, 47% drop, bearish trend
RSI 35, MACD bearish, moving average resistance
Positive funding rates, crowded longs, high cost to go long
Cyclical stock nature unchanged, risk of disappointment at highs
Competition from China's CXMT + weak consumer demand
Key levels:
Resistance above: 1370-1380 → 1400-1420 → 1450 → 1600
Support below: 1320-1330 → 1300 → 1250-1270 (recent lows)
Trading strategy:
Aggressive longs (light position):
Scale in between 1320-1350, stop loss below 1290-1300. Target first 1380-1400, break through then 1450+. Logic: support + earnings expectations + AI narrative. Position size controlled at 2-3% of total capital, leverage capped at 2-5x.
Conservative wait-and-see:
Wait for daily close above 1380-1400 to go long, or wait for 1300 break to confirm further downside. Don’t bet on direction in the middle.
Short opportunities:
If rebound hits 1400-1420 resistance (with high volume long upper shadow), light short positions with stop loss above 1450, target 1320-1300. Shorting riskier, not for beginners.
Event trading:
Reduce or hedge before earnings (10/29), expect high volatility. Positive funding rates make longs costly, watch position size.
SNDK now is like Micron in 2021—
Everyone says "AI storage super cycle is coming," then the cycle turns, halving after halving.
But if you bought Micron at the 2021 low and held until the AI boom in 2024, you’d have multiple times returns.
What’s the difference?
Are you chasing at the cycle top, or positioning at the support zone after a pullback?
$BTC $MU $SNDK In the futures market, when I see a large order, I usually first divide the notional amount by the leverage, then imagine the price moving slightly against the position to check if the margin can hold. Having been used to commodity futures, this habit of calculating a fallback first hasn't changed even after switching to the crypto market.
Just saw on the monitor that Core Trader 02 (0x9c062c…00560) opened a long position on $GOOGL with 20x leverage, with a notional value of about $100,000. This is an opening position, not profit already made; I'm more concerned about how much room for maneuver they left themselves.
My judgment is that the most important thing to watch for this position is not the amount, but the leverage. Roughly dividing the notional value by 20, the initial margin is about $5,000; if the price moves 1% against the position, the loss is about $1,000, which is about 20% of this estimated margin, not including fees. The actual liquidation point depends on the margin mode, maintenance margin, and account balance; you can't just take 5% as the liquidation line.
In the crypto market, you can see the opening position on-chain, but you may not see the full account's hedges and backup funds. This is the same problem as only watching futures seat position increases to guess the direction. My old rule is still to first ask what if I'm wrong, then talk about reasons to be bullish. Are there friends who also came from traditional markets? When facing such a 20x position, do you first check the margin mode or look for hedging positions, and why?$BTC Recently many friends have been shaken and confused, so let's listen to Sister Xi analyze the macro factors affecting the market.
Everyone knows that last week's CPI data exceeded expectations, significantly increasing the probability of interest rate hikes this year, at least one more hike is expected!
What exactly does an interest rate hike mean for our crypto circle?
It's simple: 【Interest rate hike → Stronger US dollar】
Once the US dollar strengthens, global hot money and idle funds will all flow back to the dollar.
Money will withdraw from high-risk stock markets and crypto markets, quietly depositing in banks to earn interest.
Therefore, the crypto market will naturally remain under continuous pressure and repeatedly decline.
This is a macro big trend, the overall market capital flow that no one can reverse.
After discussing the macro factors, let's talk about the 【midterm elections】
Why is the crypto circle so concerned about this election?
Trump (Republican) has very crypto-friendly policies; he has consistently expressed the desire to relax crypto regulations and turn the US into a crypto capital, which is very bullish for Bitcoin.
On the other hand, the opposing camp (Democrats) leans towards strong regulation and will suppress the crypto market more.
So the essence of this midterm election is to see whether Trump can take control of both chambers of Congress 👊
1. If the Republicans only take one chamber, the market will be volatile and range-bound, moving sideways with back-and-forth shakeouts 🌊
2. If both the House and Senate are taken, that’s a solid bullish signal, and the market will gradually warm up 📈
3. If neither chamber is taken, no need to say more, that’s a major bearish signal, and the market may directly enter a bear phase 📉
Market funds are now watching liquidity from interest rate hikes on one side and betting on the midterm election results on the other; both bulls and bears dare not launch major attacks, everyone is waiting for the final outcome.
Volatile shakeouts are the most frustrating; control your hands, reduce frequent trading, avoid blindly heavy positions, and the current strategy is to prioritize shorting near the 83000 resistance level on rebounds!$NFLX $META $TSLA US stock market opens tonight, I'm watching 4 things.
① Pre-market divergence: Nasdaq 100 futures down about 0.5%, S&P basically flat, Dow futures up about 0.2%, tech down while Dow up, still battling.
② AI bond market panic not over: CoreWeave down another 3.1% pre-market (down over 25% last week alone), Nebius down 2.9%, MU, SNDK, INTC down 1.7%–3% pre-market, the market is still reckoning with AI infrastructure debt.
③ Oil price surge: Brent around $111 (+1.7%, near 5-month high), Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities + Gulf oil tanker attacks, geopolitical risk premium is back.
④ Earnings back-to-back: NFLX after market close tonight, META + TSLA after market close tomorrow night, AI capital expenditure narrative unfolds two nights in a row.#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
Baseline judgment: It is difficult for revenue and EPS to significantly exceed expectations, but there is a possibility of a structural upside surprise in "marginal improvement in profit margin."
The core contradiction lies in the delivery volume exceeding expectations (486,500 vehicles) not yet translating into profit improvement. The market expects Q3 revenue of about $27.9–28.3 billion and adjusted EPS of only $0.44–0.45, both lower than the same period last year; operating margin is expected to be as low as about 2.5%, and free cash flow is forecasted to be negative $4.5 billion. Although automotive gross margin is expected to stabilize (around 17%), Morgan Stanley predicts it to be only 16.4% excluding credits, below consensus expectations, with price cuts and tariffs still squeezing per-vehicle profits.
Structural support comes from energy and FSD: energy storage deployment reached 13.7 GWh, FSD annualized revenue is about $1.76 billion, and subscription rate rose to 55% of new cars in North America, but the scale is still insufficient to offset the profit gap in the automotive main business.
Conclusion: The probability of EPS exceeding expectations is low; what is truly worth watching is whether the automotive gross margin can hold at 17% and whether free cash flow consumption is less than expected—these are the key variables determining market reaction.