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SNDK at $1350, do you still dare to chase? From 2354 down to 1250, halved and then rebounded to 1350, analysts shout a target price of 2400, but RSI is only 35, MACD shows a bearish alignment—Is this wave really the golden pit of AI storage, or the last bull trap before the cyclical stock tops out? Let's look at the surface first: after a sharp drop, someone is buying. Sandisk, the NAND flash memory leader, spun off from Western Digital. From the June high of 2354, it crashed all the way down to around 1250, a drop of nearly 50%. Now it’s consolidating at 1350, with a 24-hour range of 1320-1380, RSI weak at 35, MACD bearish, price above the 200-day moving average but tightly suppressed by the 20/50-day moving averages. Short-term bearish bias, but fundamentals are supporting. First: Is the AI storage super cycle real or just a story? FY2026 revenue about $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year. Net profit about $11.4 billion, gross margin hitting 84-85%. Data center SSD demand is off the charts—KV cache, inference, agentic AI, all consuming NAND. Signed long-term contracts with a floor pricing of $93.9 billion, plus financial guarantees. But SNDK is essentially a cyclical stock. No matter how strong AI demand is, NAND prices have their ups and downs. Up 175% in 2026, what about next year? The year after? The most dangerous time for cyclical stocks is when everyone thinks "this time is different." Second: Technicals and fundamentals are clashing. Fundamentals say: AI storage demand is solid, long-term contracts create a deep moat, valuation isn’t expensive based on forward EPS, analysts are collectively bullish. Technicals say: From 2354 down to 1250, a 47% drop. Price below 20/50-day moving averages, MACD bearish, RSI weak at 35. Daily and weekly charts bearish, 4H neutral. Funding rates mostly positive—longs are crowded and paying to hold positions. What’s divergence? This is it. The better the fundamentals, the weaker the technicals, indicating the market is pricing in an early expectation of a "cycle top." Third: The October 29 earnings report, catalyst or bomb? Earnings guidance: revenue $10.3-10.8 billion, EPS $44-46. Sounds good? But you must know—SNDK has risen hundreds of times from its low, with very high beta. Good earnings might trigger a rally; disappointing earnings or conservative guidance could smash it below 1300. Also, funding rates are positive, making long positions costly. Perpetual open interest on Binance is about $200 million+, longs are crowded. If someone rushes to exit before earnings, the stampede could be worse than altcoins. Bull vs. bear, you decide: On one side: AI storage super cycle, NAND shortage until 2027-2028 $93.9 billion long-term contracts with floor pricing moat S&P upgraded to BBB, analyst target prices over 2000 Above 200-day moving average, mid-to-long-term trend intact Strong earnings expectations for October 29 On the other side: From 2354 down to 1250, 47% drop, bearish trend RSI 35, MACD bearish, moving average resistance Positive funding rates, crowded longs, high cost to go long Cyclical stock nature unchanged, risk of disappointment at highs Competition from China's CXMT + weak consumer demand Key levels: Resistance above: 1370-1380 → 1400-1420 → 1450 → 1600 Support below: 1320-1330 → 1300 → 1250-1270 (recent lows) Trading strategy: Aggressive longs (light position): Scale in between 1320-1350, stop loss below 1290-1300. Target first 1380-1400, break through then 1450+. Logic: support + earnings expectations + AI narrative. Position size controlled at 2-3% of total capital, leverage capped at 2-5x. Conservative wait-and-see: Wait for daily close above 1380-1400 to go long, or wait for 1300 break to confirm further downside. Don’t bet on direction in the middle. Short opportunities: If rebound hits 1400-1420 resistance (with high volume long upper shadow), light short positions with stop loss above 1450, target 1320-1300. Shorting riskier, not for beginners. Event trading: Reduce or hedge before earnings (10/29), expect high volatility. Positive funding rates make longs costly, watch position size. SNDK now is like Micron in 2021— Everyone says "AI storage super cycle is coming," then the cycle turns, halving after halving. But if you bought Micron at the 2021 low and held until the AI boom in 2024, you’d have multiple times returns. What’s the difference? Are you chasing at the cycle top, or positioning at the support zone after a pullback? $BTC $MU $SNDK