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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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随着伊朗对波斯湾的整体能源运输的干扰,霍尔木兹海峡能源运输再次下降至850万桶/每日,能源供给端下降 同时,能源供给端已经将压力传导至生产端,亚洲炼油厂面对高油价+高运费+高保险的综合因素开始逐渐减产,能源供给+能源生产 出现双重恶化压力导致Brent WTI 价格持续上涨 唯一的好消息就是巴基斯坦陆军参谋长阿西姆·穆尼尔访问德黑兰,作为巴勒斯坦此次调停中东战争最高官员,此次必然带着重调停消息,美伊调停渠道再次回归实质性阶段 其实美伊局势发展至今我们要面临一个残酷的事实,想要解决能源问题,就绕不开美伊的和谈,不管是可替代航道,还是通过增加非中东能源输出本质上都无法解决目前的困局,并且可能会制造更大的麻烦 这一点美伊之间应该都意识到这个问题,全球各国更是如此,所以所有的乐观都只能押注美伊可以回归谈判,不过难度还是很高,令人煎熬!#10月FOMC临近,美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数?
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
After the Russian Foreign Minister's visit to Tehran, Iran, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs released the original diplomatic text, highlighting three key elements: hoping for stable energy prices + insisting on signing investment and nuclear agreements with Iran (here referring to nuclear energy facilities) + formulating long-term development plans
After the Russian Foreign Minister's visit to Tehran, Iran, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs released the original diplomatic text, highlighting three key elements: hoping for stable energy prices + insisting on signing investment and nuclear agreements with Iran (here referring to nuclear energy facilities) + formulating long-term development plans. The most optimistic expectation for a peace breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine war is that during the APEC meeting in November, the leaders of China, the US, and Russia will discuss Russia-Ukraine peace talks, currently considered the biggest optimistic turning point. Recently, Trump has also frequently sent signals for a return to peace between Russia and Ukraine. Pakistan's top army figure, Munir, visited Tehran on Tuesday. As Pakistan's highest-level mediator in the US-Iran situation, this visit to Tehran must carry important information. The current situation is indeed complex, with multiple parties including China, the US, Russia, Iran, and Ukraine engaged in a multi-faceted game: The US and Ukraine may give up to gain Russia's trust for peace between Russia and Ukraine, on the condition that Russia abandons aid to Iran, allowing Trump to succeed in his campaign against Iran and forcing Iran to submit, laying the foundation for peace in the Middle East for some time. However, whether to give up using Ukraine to contain Russia and whether peace can truly be achieved depends on Russia's choice. Russia clearly distrusts the US very much. The Russian Foreign Minister's visit and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' statement, insisting on investment agreements and nuclear energy investments with Iran, are telling the US that the current price to make Russia abandon Iran is still insufficient. Trump's goodwill will prompt Russia to raise its bargaining chips for Russia-Ukraine peace talks, as Russia has endured a war lasting several years. China acts as a mediator for all parties, promoting regional peace, while also

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