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老李看趋势(互动)
老李看趋势(互动)
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$ETH 被套牢的!这波弱势行情的根源找到了! 上午已经跟大家聊过一部分行情走弱的诱因,今天把剩下这层关键逻辑讲透,上次CPI数据落地之后,市场对加息的担忧直接加剧,现在不少人开始押注12月美联储会再度加息,甚至连11月加息的可能性都被拿出来讨论。 一旦12月落地加息,美元存款利率就重回4.0区间,对比现在国内2.0的利率,这个差距带来的吸引力可想而知,目前市场普遍预判这次加息基本是板上钉钉。 后续继续加息,美元利率有望摸到4.25。大家也能看见美指最近一直在往上冲,直接从99拉到101,涨幅去到2‑3%,这个体量的波动分量很重。按这个趋势推演,后续美元指数冲击104是很有机会的。 只要美元保持强势,机构和大量投资者就会从高风险资产里面抽离资金,涌向美元资产。不管是股市、加密圈子还是黄金,都会面临资金外流的压力,这也就是为什么最近各类行情集体转弱。$BTC $OKB #ETF持续流出,BTC反弹能否延续?
老李看趋势(互动)
老李看趋势(互动)
$ETH peaked in the afternoon, beware of BlackRock dumping tonight! If the Republicans don't get favorable results in this midterm election, the crypto market simply can't sustain the rally. Looking back at past elections, it's clear that big money always exits early to hedge risks. In such an uncertain situation, institutions are simply unwilling to gamble. On top of that, the freshly released CPI has directly raised expectations for further rate hikes. The dollar is very likely to return to the 4.0 range, and a large amount of capital will flow back into dollar deposits to earn interest. Looking at this week's market pattern, swing trades almost always hit a phase top between 3 PM and 4 PM, and ETF funds continue to flow out. Moreover, BlackRock didn't sell off yesterday, so I estimate there's a high probability they will dump tonight. The short-term strategy is very clear: focus on this afternoon time window to find opportunities to short. $BTC $OKB #ETF持续流出,BTC反弹能否延续?
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Snapshot at 20 Oct 2026, 11:40

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