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From my limited understanding of $CRWV
The only way for crwv to go bankrupt is if the money can't be spent
Rising interest rates won't kill crwv
At most, it will just lower growth expectations
The leveraged business of borrowing money to make CPUs and other rapidly depreciating goods to create added value and sell them is destined to have highly volatile financial reports that follow project execution progress during the rapid expansion phase before reaching a certain scale
Although every time leverage is increased, it's only to deleverage faster
But each time it's essentially starting the gamble from scratch
In a "mature" financial market like the US, this is the least favored
Wall Street loves to "gamble"
But also prides itself on disliking "gambling"
Moreover, in this industry, currently, each company's power capacity will always limit their imagination, and there seems to be no possibility of independently breaking the ceiling
In a business where the ceiling can be calculated
Equity value can never fully meet expectations
From the perspective of trading stocks, it becomes a game of continuously converging and breaking through into new ranges, a back-and-forth race
But this does not prevent the next 18 months
crwv, nbis, iren—the three fools—will all enter their craziest phase
There will definitely be big storms but also abundant catches
Ultimately, ultimately
Perhaps a completely different architecture of an efficient large model will emerge
The urgency for computing power growth will gradually decline or even regress
All neocloud will also be acquired by the Seven Sisters or usgov and then fade into obscurity#OpenAI与Anthropic上市竞赛升温
The boss has something to say
The IPO race between OpenAI and Anthropic is heating up. OpenAI is accelerating a roughly $30 billion fundraising round, targeting a valuation exceeding 1.4 trillion, aiming to lock in institutional funds before Anthropic's expected November IPO. On Anthropic's side, they are pushing a $60 billion chip financing and negotiating about a $45 billion computing power supply agreement with Nscale.
I think this is a fierce money-grabbing battle. A comment in the discussion section hits the mark: raising funds before Anthropic's IPO to avoid public valuation multiples becoming an unfavorable anchor. Whoever goes public first sets the valuation benchmark, and the other side can only follow. So both sides are racing against time, desperately raising money.
This is indirectly bearish for crypto. These two giants are simultaneously absorbing capital, pushing risk funds further into the AI track. Liquidity from Bitcoin and altcoins will be drained. Plus, differences in revenue accounting between the two companies are fueling market skepticism about the high valuations.
Bitcoin showed little movement today. I took three trades successfully in yesterday's live stream and am now out of positions. Before the FOMC, I won't bet on a one-sided move; watching if the 80,000 level can hold. If it holds, expect consolidation; if it breaks, deeper correction is likely. Resistance above is between 84,000 and 85,000. No chasing the rally or panic selling; set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; trades must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Bitcoin is around 81,400 today. The 82,000 support level broke today, and it broke with volume, not a false break. Once this level breaks, the space below opens up. 80,000 is the next psychological barrier and also the key cost line repeatedly emphasized by Glassnode. After breaking below 80,000, the gap zone is between 78,000 and 76,000. The current resistance above has dropped to 82,500 to 83,000. Only by reclaiming 83,500 can we say this downtrend has paused. I know many people want to bottom-fish now because ETFs are flowing in, MVRV has dropped to 25.7%, entering a historical accumulation zone, Google search interest is at a six-year low, which Willy Woo calls a contrarian buy point, and Swan's Klippsten also says the record holder supply suggests an early bottom. These signals are all valid, but they are medium-term signals, not today's buy point. Today's buy point requires seeing one of two things: either the 80,000 round number is defended with volume rebound, or a long lower shadow candle followed by a confirming bullish candle the next day. Before either of these happens, any bottom-fishing is like catching a falling knife, because the bulls are still being cleared out, and this clearing process usually doesn't last just one day. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？
According to multiple data sources including Farside and SoSoValue, on October 19 (Monday), the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $527 million, marking the largest single-day inflow since September 22. BlackRock's IBIT contributed approximately $665 million, offsetting outflows from FBTC and GBTC. This day directly reversed the net outflow of about $82.4 million on October 16.
$BTC briefly rebounded to around 83k on the 19th, then retreated to oscillate between 81.3k and 81.5k on the 20th. It had previously dipped close to 80k.
Can the rebound continue? In the short term, conditions allow continuation, but sustainability depends on follow-up capital rather than a single-day inflow.
The large inflow on the 19th indicates a clear return of institutional funds, with IBIT leading as a positive signal.
The price has repeatedly found support near 80k, and the rebound on the 19th shows buying interest remains.
On the macro side, falling oil prices and easing US Treasury yields provide some support for risk assets.
October overall still shows net outflows; single-day inflows need continuous confirmation, otherwise they are easily mistaken for a rebound rather than a trend reversal.
The Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting is approaching, and the market remains sensitive to the interest rate path; any hawkish signals could suppress the rebound.
Leverage in positions remains high, with concentrated liquidations, making the rebound prone to long liquidations.
Altcoins have been more active recently, showing signs of capital diversion, while the mainstream lacks sustained independent drivers. $BTC #ETF continues to flow out, can BTC's rebound continue?
ETF is flowing out, but the price is bouncing up; this kind of divergence is the easiest to deceive.
From October 12 to 16, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of about $229 million, and Ethereum's outflow was even more severe, reaching $320 million. On October 19, Bitcoin ETF had a single-day outflow of $139 million. Institutional buying is retreating, this is an ironclad fact, the money is genuinely withdrawing.
But BTC did bounce from around 80,000 to 83,000, and now it is fluctuating near 82,000. Funds are withdrawing, yet the price is rising—why? The two comments under the community post hit the point. This rebound is not driven by new money buying in, but by shorts covering and pushing the price up. It's a battle of existing funds; when shorts cover, the price naturally rebounds. Without incremental funds entering, the foundation of this rebound is very weak, and its sustainability cannot be guaranteed.
It's like water without a source; once drained, it's gone.
Now at the 83,000 level, which is a previously densely trapped zone, without real incremental buying with hard cash, it's hard to break through in one go. The 80,000 level below is an important psychological defense line. If ETFs continue to dump and break below 80,000, triggering long positions to deleverage, that will be the real bottom.
In terms of operation, the biggest taboo now is chasing highs. Jumping in just because it’s red can easily get you trapped halfway up the mountain. For those holding positions, reduce holdings near resistance levels during the rebound and pocket the profits. $BTC Macro: Mainly headwinds
• US September CPI rebounded to 3.7%, limiting rate cut space; the Federal Reserve leans toward "higher for longer," with the 10-year US Treasury yield approaching 5.2%.
• US stocks, especially long-duration growth stocks, are under pressure; VIX surged sharply in a single week, with funds withdrawing from overvalued assets.
• Safe-haven funds prefer gold; Bitcoin currently behaves as a risk asset rather than a safe haven.
Bitcoin: Stable supply, weak marginal buying
• About 83% of circulating supply has been dormant long-term; exchange balances remain below the start of the year, and core holders have not systematically sold.
• However, US spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $679 million last week; spot demand turned negative, with whale accumulation diverging.
• Key ranges: $80,000 as double-bottom support, $82,000 as resistance; breaking below $80,000 may test $75,000, while holding above $82,000 could test $85,000–$87,000.
Scenario analysis
1. Range-bound oscillation (higher probability): $75,000–$82,000 consumption, awaiting Fed signals.
2. Follow risk asset recovery (medium probability): tech earnings improve + ETF net inflows, testing $82,000–$87,000.
3. Secondary deleveraging (lower probability): inflation exceeds expectations again or accelerated ETF outflows, breaking below $80,000, testing $75,000 or lower.
In short: Before the Fed gives a clear direction, Bitcoin’s short-term price moves essentially reflect bets on macro risk appetite rather than an independent crypto cycle. $BTC $ETH $SOL $PEPE carrying the sedan chair for Sun Geci?The 1inch card is shutting down; new users haven't been able to register for a long time, and existing users have been told to withdraw or spend their balances before December 18.
The money has never actually been in 1inch's hands—it’s held in wallets by the licensed electronic money institution Monavate. Account closures, KYC, and data are handled by Crypto Life, and even the card's shutdown date is decided by the issuer and service provider.
The cashback on card spending is funded by the project side, covering the full costs of issuing, compliance, and KYC. When the crypto market tightens, this card is the first to be cut.
After account closure, redemption can be requested for up to six years, which sounds generous, but frankly, this money has never been recorded in the protocol’s accounts from start to finish.
$BTC
$ETH
$1INCH #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins The bulls have been having a tough time these past couple of days; funds are flowing in, but prices keep grinding down. BTC has slid from 83,035 all the way down to 81,420, losing the 82,000 level again; ETH dropped from 2,443 to 2,380, breaking below 2,400 as soon as it was tested; HYPE retreated from 80.34 to 78.23, failing to hold 80. In the last 24 hours, HYPE fell 2.21%, the worst performer, while over the week ETH dropped 4.74%, the weakest.
The strangest thing is the capital flow. The US BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $527 million in a single day, the strongest since September; BlackRock's IBIT alone brought in $665 million, offsetting redemptions from Fidelity and Grayscale. Yet prices continue to drift down, indicating heavier profit-taking pressure above. Regulation is also tightening: the French National Assembly passed an amendment taxing stablecoin exchanges, self-custody wallet declarations and exit taxes are still on the table; Mastercard is imposing stablecoin risk screening on banks, checking on-chain transactions before settlement. Visa and Mesh have expanded payment channels to 175 million merchants, but compliance costs are piling up, making everyday usability more expensive.
So there's no rush to bottom-fish now. Wait for two signals: whether ETF net inflows can continue, and whether BTC can reclaim and close above 83,000 and 82,000. Without these signals, don't get itchy-handed, especially don't bet on a rebound with assets like HYPE.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE HBAR is holding above $0.082, with a market cap of 3.6 billion but a daily volume of only 2.71 million, resulting in a turnover rate of less than 0.008%. This is not a trading market at all, but rather market makers entertaining themselves. The 24-hour price drop is less than 1%, with the volatility range compressed between 0.0819 and 0.0858, and very short upper and lower shadows—typical low-volume sideways trading where buyers and sellers have reached a tacit agreement, and no one wants to make the first move. Smart money signals show net short positions and zero net holdings; institutions are neither long nor short, effectively absent, indicating a lack of institutional motivation to participate at the current valuation range. Social sentiment is also a vacuum, with zero mentions and zero bias; not even FUD is being generated. This kind of cold reception is scarier than negative news, meaning the project has completely fallen out of the narrative spotlight. Core judgment: HBAR has fallen into a liquidity black hole, with no incremental funds, no narrative catalysts, and no institutional backing. Unless there is a major ecological breakthrough, it is highly likely to continue grinding time for space around the 0.08 level.Recently, the feeling has become increasingly intense
This month, Bitcoin will soon drop to 75,000
The Federal Reserve has entered a silent period, aiming to prevent officials from speaking to guide market trends. Only rotten eggs need to be covered up. Currently, crude oil remains high, US Treasury yields are also high, draining global liquidity. Meanwhile, last month's CPI-PPI exceeding expectations already indicates that inflation has reached a very serious level. The monetary meeting next Tuesday must bring up the topic of rate hikes!
At the same time, looking at the market structure, there is a large amount of buying support at the 80,000 Bitcoin level. Every time it touches here, it rebounds by 3,000-4,000 points, but now the rebound highs are gradually decreasing, repeatedly testing this major support at 80,000. As long as it breaks below here, the lower area will be a liquidity vacuum, and the market will accelerate towards 75,000 $BTC $ETH Retail investors' behavior never changes: when prices fall, the group chat floods with messages like "It's over, the bull market is finished, it's going to be halved again," but very few actually dare to buy; however, once prices rise for several consecutive days and break a key level, WeChat Moments and Weibo immediately buzz with excitement, with target prices shouted from 80,000 all the way up to 100,000 or 120,000, afraid of missing out. They fear the drop and rush the rise. But looking at the bigger picture: Bitcoin rose more than 40% in Q3, ETFs have seen large inflows previously, and the long-term supply and demand hasn't worsened; the short-term fluctuations are just caused by the Federal Reserve meetings and inflation data. Technically: BTC is oscillating between 82,000-83,500, holding above the 50-day moving average at 80,600, with support at 80,000-81,000 and resistance first at 85,000. ETH is consolidating around 2,400, holding the 200-day moving average at 2,345, with short-term resistance at 2,480-2,500—the structure is intact, but momentum is moderate; an effective breakout is needed to open a major trend. The real opportunities have always been hidden when no one dares to touch them. Waiting until the crowd gets lively to chase means the price is already expensive.$SUI
Sui's object-based model and the Move language let many transactions run in parallel, which suits apps with heavy simultaneous activity. That's the technical case. The practical one is harder: developers need reasons to build here instead of on chains with larger communities. Token unlock schedules also deserve attention, since supply entering circulation can weigh on sentiment.Altcoin ETFs Enter a "Moment of Divergence": Numbered Ones Feast, Unnumbered Ones Watch
At this time last year, the market was still betting on "which altcoin ETF will get approved." Now the answer is on the table—and it's harsher than expected.
The first batch has already launched, forming clear tiers:
SOL fired the first shot (Bitwise launched in October), XRP's REX-Osprey attracted $1.37 billion AUM right at launch, DOGE became the first-ever memecoin ETF in history, LTC and HBAR quietly launched the same week. LINK and AVAX are even more competitive—each has two issuers vying for market share, with AVAX also offering staking rewards.
The script for the second batch is already written:
ADA is the "cleanest" story left: CME futures launch in February, a six-month clock runs to August, and the SEC's final deadline is October 23—this week. Grayscale, VanEck, Bitwise, and Canary are all in line.
Bitwise made a sweeping filing on December 30 last year for 11 assets including AAVE, SUI, TAO, NEAR, aiming for a March 16 effective date—the largest single batch filing in history.
Regulators are also stepping on the gas: the SEC's general listing standards have shortened review cycles from a maximum of 240 days to about 75 days.
But please note, the point I want to make is not "bullishness," but divergence.
ETF funds will not be evenly distributed across the market; they will only flow to assets covered by funds—coins backed by ETFs see narrower bid-ask spreads and deeper liquidity; coins with similar technology but no fund support get nothing.
After XRP and LTC ETFs get approved in early 2026, the so-called "altcoin season" will have shifted from retail frenzy to an institutional asset rebalancing event. Seyfat's warning is more straightforward: after hundreds of new ETFs, a major reshuffle is likely at year-end, leaving only the most liquid survivors.
The pricing logic for altcoins is shifting from "narrative" to "whether there is an institutional channel."#奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点
Netflix will release its Q3 earnings after the market closes tonight, with the market focusing on advertising as a new growth driver. The company guides revenue of $12.86 billion and an operating margin of 33.2%, showing significant improvement compared to the same period last year, with cost reductions and subscriber price increases continuing to pay off. Subscription growth is gradually slowing, and low-priced ad-supported plans are key to incremental growth. Whether advertising revenue and ad ARPU can be maintained will determine the quality of this earnings report. Risks include high profits relying on price hikes and cost control, as well as watching for pressure on new subscriptions and user retention. Hit content and competition in the advertising industry will also bring uncertainties.Come join the S3 prediction event!
This time it's a grand prize + battle royale mode: participate in all earnings season predictions, advance if you win, eliminated if you lose, last person standing wins 1WU!
SpaceX will release its Q3 earnings after the market closes tonight. I bought Yes, believing revenue is very likely to exceed expectations.
The market currently expects revenue between $12.7 billion and $12.9 billion, up about 65% from last quarter, with adjusted EPS around $0.15. If they can achieve this, it will be the first profitable quarter since going public.
The first reason I am optimistic is Q2's performance. Q2 revenue was $7.81 billion, while the market only expected $6.93 billion; EPS loss was $0.09, market expected a loss of $0.26.
The second reason is the AI computing power business. This segment was only $2.56 billion in Q2, but Q3 is expected to reach about $6.4 billion. It sounds like a big jump, but at the end of Q2, there were already $47.5 billion in orders on hand, and before the earnings report, they signed a fourth computing power hosting contract, annualized at about $13 billion.
However, even if revenue exceeds expectations, the stock price may not rise. Q2 was like this: revenue beat expectations, but after-hours stock price once dropped more than 8%, mainly due to concerns over high capital expenditures. This time, the market expects capital expenditures around $19.6 billion, with free cash flow roughly negative $11.6 billion. So I am betting on revenue beating expectations, not on the stock price rising
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 This PEPE rebound feels a bit like "false fire" 🔥
Current price is 0.00000417, up 2.7%, but volume hasn't kept up; 1-hour participation is only 0.28x. In other words, the price moved, but the money hasn't arrived 💸. There's direct resistance at 0.00000419, and further up, 0.00000430 and 0.00000445 are all tough levels; on the downside, losing 0.00000401 means short-term weakness, while 0.00000380–0.00000392 is the lifeline—breaking below that would look really bad 😬.
More exciting is the leverage: futures trading volume is over 5 times spot, with open interest at two to three hundred million dollars. Recently, long positions account for nearly 80% of liquidations, and leveraged longs are being taken out 📉. The big whales aren't peaceful either—Sun Yuchen's address suddenly received 720 trillion PEPE, about 28.44 million USD; no one knows what he plans, raising a big question mark on the supply side 🐋. ETF? Canary has filed documents but hasn't been approved yet, so don't rush to see it as a positive 🎫. Deflationary burns continue, but short-term depends on capital and sentiment.
$SPCX $ETH $SOL
Watch these four things: whether breaking 0.00000419 comes with volume, what happens after the 720 trillion move, how open interest and funding rates change, and whether BTC holds 80,000 👀. Only a volume-backed breakout looks decent; if it can't break through after a long attack, it will likely retest core support. Don't get carried away, PEPE flips faster than flipping a page ⚡️#奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #Visa partners with Mesh to expand stablecoin payments to 175 million merchants
What impact does this have?
First, the "breaking out" of stablecoins is fully unlocked. Previously, when we used U, it was mostly for transfers within the crypto circle or spending at some small shops that specifically supported cryptocurrencies, which had a very high threshold. Now Visa directly covers 175 million merchants, effectively connecting the capillaries of Web2 to the heart of Web3. You can buy a cup of coffee or a burger on the street and pay directly with U. This provides stablecoins with a real-world application scenario, no longer just a pure speculation tool.
Second, compliant stablecoins (like USDC) are going to benefit big. Giants like Visa and Mastercard choose partners based primarily on compliance and transparency of underlying assets. USDC is backed by BlackRock and Circle, making it the cleanest. The entry of these payment giants will strongly boost USDC's circulation. If the U you hold is less compliant, it might not be usable in some of these giant ecosystems in the future.
Here’s my view. In the long run, this is a landmark event for crypto assets moving mainstream, absolutely very positive. But for traders, be clear that this kind of news has little short-term impact on the candlestick charts; today USDC and USDT prices remain steady as ever. Because this is infrastructure, not a pump catalyst. The real short-term direction of BTC is still determined by macro data.
What do you think? $BTC $ETH $BTC On-Chain Breaking News!
At 2:23 AM Beijing time on October 19,
a Bitcoin old wallet from 2013 suddenly moved,
transferring all 411.45 bitcoins in one transaction to a new address, now worth $34 million.
The most striking thing about this transfer is not the amount,
but a chilling detail that makes netizens shudder.
This wallet hadn’t moved once in 13 years,
but careful netizens noticed that during these 13 years,
the wallet kept receiving tiny fractions of coins worth a few cents, dozens of times in total,
several of which have been flagged as scam addresses.
This is a scam targeting whales called "address pollution."
Scammers create a fake address that looks almost identical to yours,
send you a few cents first, so the fake address gets mixed into your transaction history.
Later, when you transfer coins and copy from the history for convenience, a slip of the hand copying the wrong address
sends your coins straight into the scammer’s pocket, unrecoverable.
The old whale didn’t fall for it but didn’t bet on never slipping up either,
so moved all coins into a clean new address and abandoned the old one.
The moving fee was less than 2 RMB,
so the scammers waited in vain for over a decade.
Coincidentally, the day before, two other old wallets that had been dormant for twelve or thirteen years also moved,
167 and 248 coins respectively, totaling 416.7 coins, also transferred in one transaction to a new address.
Three old wallets in two days, 411.45 matches 416.69, all hovering around 410 coins.账面上是红的，但我的逻辑没变，理由有三条👇 1️⃣ 空间不够。现价离 4,300 还差三个多点，黄金一周走出这种单边行情，只在大事件冲击的时候才有，比如突发地缘冲突或者央行意外放鹰鸽。本周日历上没有这么大的事。 2️⃣ 高位容易犹豫。金价已经在高位来回好几周了，每次冲上来都有获利盘砸。4,200 附近是第一道关，4,300 是心理整数关，两道关一周连破，概率不高。 3️⃣ 赔率算得过来。No 卖 92¢，意思是市场只给「触及」一成左右的概率，我觉得真实概率还要更低。这单本来就是低波动、稳拿的仓位，不是去博翻倍。 现在的 -3.9% 只是盘口情绪在晃，不是结果。只要本周最高价没碰到 4,300，到期每份就按 1 XP 结算，这 500 XP 收回大约 540，赚 8% 左右。 最大的风险我也想清楚了：周中要是出现避险大消息，金价急拉，这单会很疼。所以我只用了一部分 XP，没有满仓。 你觉得这周黄金能碰到 4300 吗？Google is setting rules for crypto ads in the UAE, effective tomorrow (October 21).
Google Ads policy update: For crypto exchange and software wallet ads targeting UAE users, advertisers must hold a license from one of four regulatory bodies: Capital Market Authority (CMA), Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA), Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA), or Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA), and also pass Google's ad qualification certification.
On the surface, this looks like an "expansion": previously only VARA and FSRA were recognized, now CMA and DFSA are included.
But the actual threshold is raised: license + Google certification + compliance with local laws are all mandatory; CFD licenses under the same brand do not automatically cover crypto ads, each product line must be approved separately.
I think this is a signal, not noise: the UAE is a gateway for Middle Eastern crypto capital, and Google aligning ad thresholds with local virtual asset laws means acting as a gatekeeper for regulatory "traffic entry."
In the long run, mainstream assets like $BTC might actually benefit: clearer regulation means institutional funds enter with fewer concerns.
What do you think: is Google's move "legalizing" crypto ads, or blocking the path for small and medium projects?
$BTC
#CryptoAds #UAENEAR looks a bit rough today, one of the worst performers among the major coins 📉
Down about 7% in 24 hours, currently at 4.71. The daily chart has been dropping from the high of 6.06 on the 12th, with each rebound lower than the last: yesterday 5.135, today only up to 4.99. This afternoon it broke through the support zone of 4.74–4.76.
Funding rate is slightly negative, shorts aren’t too crowded, but it also means few dare to take the other side.
Key levels I’m watching:
Above: 4.78–4.81, where it hovered from noon to afternoon today; now that’s broken, it will likely become resistance on a pullback.
Higher: 4.87–4.89, the platform from last night to this morning.
Below: 4.62–4.63 is yesterday’s low, then 4.53 is the low on the 15th.
My plan:
📌 Bias: bearish, waiting for a retracement
📌 Entry: 4.78–4.81
📌 Stop loss: 4.89, if it closes back above last night’s platform, admit the plan is wrong
📌 Target: take half off at 4.63, the rest at 4.53
If it drops straight to around 4.62 without a retracement, I won’t chase shorts there; the risk/reward is too poor. If the 4H closes back above 4.89, this plan is void.
$NEAR #NEAR #ContractStrategy
Just my personal view, not investment advice, DYORThe South Korean market closed down nearly 4 points today, ending at 5552.
Looking back a month, this index has dropped from 7080 to now, losing more than 20%. Hynix is even more dramatic, down 35% from its peak.
Here's how the money moved today: foreign investors sold over 400 million USD, institutions sold over 300 million, and retail investors stubbornly bought over 600 million, but in the end, it still couldn't hold.
Last night, US chip stocks actually rebounded by more than a point, but Asia still fell today. So now the cut is no longer about how the US market moved last night, but someone is recalculating how much the AI investment is really worth. Today, a Korean data center company went public and broke its IPO price; this kind of event is more telling than any slogans. There are also rumors that Hynix's subsidiary plans to list separately in the US, but this is unconfirmed, so don't take it seriously.
My macro readings have dropped sharply these past two days; whenever I write about local dogs, people come in. Fine, watch whatever you want.
As for Bitcoin, from September 23 to today, others have dropped more than 20%, but it only fell 5 points, hovering between 81,000 and 83,000 in the past ten days, today at 81,700. When chips evaporated a trillion last week, I said in the square that it wouldn't follow this wave, and that still holds true today.
80,000 is a threshold. If it really falls below, my theory is invalid, and I'll admit it honestly. If it holds, then it's still a long position. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% Let me talk a bit about yesterday's gold short position; it went so smoothly, basically played out exactly as planned.
Earlier, quite a few people saw some stirrings in the geopolitical area and got all hyped up, shouting that gold was about to take off, as if they wanted to buy out the floor price. I said clearly at the time, don't get carried away, this move is just a technical rebound, not a trend reversal. The interest rate constraint is still in place, and neither the dollar nor US Treasury yields are to be underestimated, so where does gold get the confidence to keep surging upward?
And what happened? After the surge, it softened and dropped all the way down. Our short positions were steadily profitable. Isn't this much better than chasing highs and selling lows?
This morning it bounced a little, and some people started to panic, asking if they were going to miss out. I advise you to stay calm. This small rebound at this level is basically another chance for the bears. Look at the daily chart, each high is lower than the last, structurally still weak, with no sign of reversal.
So the strategy is simple: wait for it to creep up again, around 4160 to 4180, then continue to short, with the first target near 4115. Don't fear the rise; fear that you won't dare to short. $XAUFrom the perspective of holding period, distinguish between short-term event-driven and long-term fundamental market trends.
Price increases driven by positive events are short-lived; market trends driven by continuous fundamental improvements can withstand multiple pullbacks.
For $BTC, look at the long-term cycle position; for $ETH, distinguish the type of market driver. Layered screening: rallies triggered by news events are suitable for short-term trading, not for long-term holding.
Tracking target list:
🟠BTC｜Long-term cycle benchmark
🔵ETH｜Market driver gauge
🟣UNI｜DEX leader
🟢LINK｜Oracle
🔷CRV｜Stablecoin swap
Key observation of BTC and ETH relative strength:
With continuous fundamental improvement combined with an upward market cycle, the trend can be held long-term; if driven purely by news stimuli without significant new capital inflow into BTC, the rise is only suitable for short-term quick in-and-out trading. ZRO unlocked 23.63 million tokens today, while the cumulative buyback is only 2.54 million tokens. I’m not catching this flying knife.
DefiLlama shows that LayerZero unlocked about 23.63 million tokens at 13:33 today, worth about 44 million USD, accounting for about 5.9% of the circulating supply.
All of these were given to core contributors and strategic partners, with 8 more monthly unlocks to come.
The official buyback is done using Stargate revenue, totaling about 2.54 million tokens.
On the OKX daily chart, ZRO dropped from the high of 2.48 on 10/11 to about 1.83.
My view: The buyback is real, but the monthly unlock volume is roughly 9 times the cumulative buyback, so it can’t hold.
Those who grabbed airdrops back then have long left; now the sellers every month are insiders.
Only when it stabilizes above 2.10 can we consider it a breakout.
Invalidation: If it falls below the previous low of 1.7263, don’t bottom-fish.
Do you think the buyback can support ZRO, or is the monthly unlock pressuring it?
$ZRO $STG $ETH
#airdrop #tokenunlock
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Eight-day losing streak ends! Philadelphia Semiconductor rebounds 1.6% on Monday—reversal or dead cat bounce?
After eight consecutive days of decline, the longest losing streak since 2008, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) closed up on Monday: +1.61%, at 11,316.34 points. The cumulative drop over eight days was 15.7%, wiping out nearly 2 trillion in market value at one point. Last Friday, the RSI hit 21.5—the lowest since the tariff panic in April 2025. Oversold to the extreme, a rebound was due.
Leading the gains were memory stocks: SK Hynix ADR +4.67%, Micron +2.97%; Intel +3% (JPMorgan just upgraded it from underweight to neutral); SOXL up 5.32% in a single day, SOXX closed up 1.73% at 501.93—bottom-fishing capital is really stepping in. Demand side isn’t actually bad: Wedbush says no credit risk seen in AI data center supply chain, storage prices are still rising, the problem lies in financing sentiment.
But don’t rush to call it a reversal yet. The key 11,500 level hasn’t been reclaimed: intraday Monday touched 11,550 but gave back gains, closing at 11,316. The first day of rebound is just a watch-and-see.
Downside is clear too: if Monday’s 1.6% gain is fully given back and it returns to around 11,100, that’s a dead cat bounce and the bottom test continues.
Are you betting on a reversal or a dead cat bounce? Tesla’s earnings after market close on 10-21 will reveal the answer.
$SOXL $AKE funds are still increasing, is something big coming??
ake started signaling trades mid-month, and the current trend seems to be gearing up for the expected October rally. After an initial surge and pullback, it has been consolidating sideways for a long time, with most of the chips already digested.
Currently, the entire contract cycle maintains net inflows, indicating that leveraged longs are actively positioning. Spot funds are flowing back, and mid-to-long-term buying is gradually catching up, so it's not just contracts playing alone.
This kind of meme coin's rise relies on community narratives without solid fundamental support, so selling pressure comes quickly as well.
My personal suggestion is to focus on short-term longs. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data shows that in the five trading days ending last Thursday, hedge funds' net selling of the technology sector as a proportion of holdings hit the highest record since statistics began in 2016. After reducing positions, tech stocks still account for 23.5% of their global prime brokerage book net allocation. The institutional funds in this sample are reducing exposure, which is short-term bearish for tech stocks' capital flow, but the allocation remains high; whether the retreat continues is more critical. Next, watch if net selling narrows and whether the remaining allocation continues to decline. #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ [680,000 AI payments have already been recorded on-chain, is the Agent economy finally starting to generate revenue?]
As of October 20, X-Agent has cumulatively recorded 1.269 million on-chain transactions, 39,649 Agentic Wallets, and 680,300 x402 payments. The numbers are growing rapidly, but what I value most is how much these Agents have actually spent and what services they have purchased.
This sector is indeed beginning to have real data support. CoinDesk reported on October 14, citing Chainalysis data, that x402 has processed over 138 million crypto payments, but more than 87% of individual transactions are under $0.1. The fact that micropayments are working shows there is a real application space for machines to automatically purchase data, computing power, and model services; however, a large number of transactions does not necessarily mean equally large commercial revenue.
The direction of Agent automatic payments definitely has long-term value, but we cannot conclude the ecological value of X-Agent based solely on this data set for now. The number of wallets does not equal active users, the number of payments does not equal unique customers, and certainly not profits. Next, we need to look at total payment amounts, repeat payment rates, and how many transactions come from genuine external demand. If these indicators continue to grow, the Agent Economy can truly be said to have crossed the threshold from demonstration to commercialization. $BTC , $ETH Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother!
Damn, the current market situation is very interesting. Leverage heat is rising rapidly, but spot funds are not following at all.
After the last round of short liquidation ended, incremental funds did not shift to spot allocation; instead, they flowed back into the contract trading sector.
The data is very straightforward: BTC's net inflow into contracts in the past 24 hours reached 859 million USD, while the spot side only had 143 million USD. In the last hour, contracts continued to see an additional inflow of 42.63 million, whereas spot actually had a net outflow of 2.49 million.
It's easy to fall into a cognitive trap here. Many people directly conclude that bulls have taken control of the market, but this judgment is not accurate. Contract fund inflows only indicate an increase in participants in the long-short game and a warming of leveraged betting sentiment. Without spot buying power to support, the rebound lacks a solid foundation and is hard to sustain.
This divergence is even more pronounced with ETH. In a single hour, contract inflow was 58.53 million, while spot inflow was only 3.4 million—a huge gap. Market makers' core reference indicator is not the loudness of bullish market voices but the real buying strength on the spot order book. Once the price pushes up to resistance levels but spot lacks real buying support, the resistance will take effect, and the price is likely to fall back after a rally.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ BTC反弹但ETF未回流：价格修复快于资金修复
BTC rebounded from around 80,000 USD, briefly reaching 83,000 USD on October 19, then retreating to around 82,000 USD. However, the capital side remains under pressure: from October 12 to 16, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about 229 million USD, while ETH had a net outflow of about 320 million USD during the same period; on October 19, BTC ETFs again had a net outflow of about 139 million USD, with no sustained net inflow recovery yet.
Logical interpretation: This rebound appears more like a short-term correction after overselling and leverage clearing, rather than driven by incremental funds. Price recovery is faster than capital recovery, so the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. ETH outflows exceed BTC, indicating weaker support for non-BTC mainstream assets; ETH/BTC may remain weak in the short term.
Trading strategy: 83,000-84,000 USD is short-term resistance, 80,000 USD is key support. If the rebound to above 83,000 USD occurs with low volume and ETFs continue to outflow, prioritize reducing positions or lightly shorting, with a stop loss above 84,000 USD; if the price tests 80,000 USD without breaking and ETF outflows narrow, stabilization can be observed, but heavy bottom-fishing is not advisable. When ETH is weaker than BTC, consider shorting ETH/BTC. Core principle: before capital returns, the rebound is a correction, not a reversal. Control position size and set stop losses properly.Wall Street is starting to move the US dollar onto Ethereum, but ETH prices may not benefit immediately!
On October 19, JPMorgan Chase announced that its US dollar deposit token, JPM Coin, has launched on the Ethereum mainnet and is now available to eligible institutional clients.
Note, it is not an ordinary USDT, nor a freely circulating stablecoin available to everyone, but an institutional-grade token representing JPMorgan Chase's US dollar deposits.
What truly deserves attention is the direction behind this.
In the past, when traditional banks talked about blockchain, it was often experiments within their own closed systems; now, JPMorgan Chase is extending institutional fund settlement business onto a public blockchain.
This means Ethereum's competitiveness is not just about whether ETH price rises, but whether it can become the infrastructure for institutions to transfer funds and settle assets.
Of course, banks adopting Ethereum does not mean banks are buying ETH, nor does it mean ETH prices will rise immediately. Technology adoption, on-chain business growth, and token price are three different things.
But I believe that to judge the long-term value of a public chain, you can't just focus on the candlestick chart. Short-term funds can withdraw; what’s truly worth observing is: when traditional finance starts going on-chain, who can handle real business?
This may be more worthy of long-term attention than how many times leverage a certain whale has opened again. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 To pour some cold water first, when I see a 10x long position opened, I don't take large orders as evidence of bullishness. Core Trader 02 (0x9c062c…00560) newly opened or added to a long position in $NBIS, holding 302.13 tokens, with a nominal value of about $50,000. My judgment: this position expresses a direction, but it is not enough to prove that this direction is worth betting on.
I'm stuck in two places. First, leverage compresses the margin for error: roughly calculated by nominal value and 10x leverage, the corresponding margin is about $5,000; if the price moves 1% against the position, the loss is about 10% of this margin, and it is also affected by margin mode and other factors. Second, monitoring only shows this side of the position, without seeing the complete assets and hedges. Directly interpreting a one-sided long as strongly bullish might be a misread from the start. If the market moves against, the most painful is a heavy position without an exit plan.
Of course, the other party might have caught the right direction, and I might have poured cold water too early. If the price continues to strengthen later and recovers after a pullback, I will reduce my bearish bias; but whether the direction is correct and whether 10x leverage is appropriate, I will judge separately. Regarding this long position, do you stand long or short? Please state your reasons: do you value the directional signal more, or the margin pressure brought by leverage?Does everyone think Tesla's Q3 earnings report will exceed expectations? Am I the only one who thinks it might barely meet the mark?
The current market expectation for EPS is $0.43–0.45, with revenue expected at $27.8–28.1 billion.
I guess people expect it to beat because the vehicle delivery data released at the beginning of the month was 486,500 units, exceeding the market expectation of about 460,000. But I think part of that is inventory clearance, not increased demand. #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
Why I think the earnings report won't beat expectations:
1. Zacks earnings surprise indicator ESP is about -11%, and a negative value usually means it won't beat expectations.
2. Analysts cut their expectations by 4%–12% last month, indicating that everyone thinks the fundamentals are weakening.
3. Energy storage deployment was 13.7 GWh, below the expected 15 GWh; gross margin dropped from 26.7% in 2022 to 16.3%, and Q2 already missed expectations once.Tuesday, 2026.10.20
US stocks opened high and closed low yesterday. Monday's futures really served as a reverse indicator and can now be considered an important reference. Although tech stocks collectively rebounded yesterday, they plunged at the close. Assets like Bitcoin and gold followed suit. US stocks are currently performing very poorly, with clear capital flight from highs. The power of the cycle remains strong.
On October 19, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of 526 million, while Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of 103 million. This Bitcoin inflow feels like a bottom-fishing army entering the market.
SpaceX will release its Q3 financial and operational results after the market closes on October 20. It is also strongly supported by Trump, which should be somewhat related. Recently, Musk has been very active, so it’s worth paying more attention to assets related to him.
Market Analysis
The real trading flow after the US market opened dragged down Bitcoin, which had been rebounding well. Despite the large ETF inflows yesterday, they couldn’t stop the plunge, indicating this is indeed a right shoulder market pattern, which may continue until the end of this week. After next week’s Federal Reserve decision, a new market phase may begin. From a technical perspective, the next phase should break 80,000, depending on the Fed’s decision.
As mentioned above, altcoins still have significant leveraged positions, with risks and opportunities coexisting. Those who don’t want to risk heavy losses should avoid altcoins.
Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index: 49 (Neutral) Yesterday was probably my best chance to cut my losses, but greed kept me holding on. Now I’m watching $SKHYNIX again, wondering if another leg down is coming this week. 📉 The recent rebound gave me hope, but the broader sell-off in AI and semiconductor stocks is still a concern. With earnings approaching on October 28, volatility could stay high. One green day doesn’t necessarily mean the bottom is in. 😮💨 Sometimes the hardest part of trading isn’t knowing when to buy — it’s accepting when 昨天那波反弹，质量其实很一般：$BTC 刚摸上83000就缩了回来，其他币种甚至连20日均线都没能收复。这种结构下追高的性价比极低，真正值得讨论的不是"反弹能不能延续"，而是"什么信号才算反转"。 先看最关键的一道坎。$BTC 现货ETF持有者的平均成本大约在84358美元，这意味着反弹一旦接近这个区间，就会撞上解套盘的抛压。价格冲上83000后回落，本质就是在这个成本带下方被压了回来。所以85000不是随便画的一条线，而是多空争夺的胜负手——站得稳，才谈得上趋势反转；站不稳，一切反弹都只是修复。 再看 $ETH。它是这轮主流币里最弱的一个，7天跌了4.3%，现价距离20日均线2532美元还差一百多美元，日线RSI只有29，超卖程度已经相当极端。弱势本身不是买入理由，但超卖叠加均线压制，一旦它重新站上20日均线，意义就不只是补涨，而是趋势可能真的掉头了。这是三个条件里弹性最大的一个。 第三个条件来自资金面：ETF净流入必须重新转正。价格是结果，资金是原因，没有增量资金回流的反弹，本质上只是存量博弈下的技术性修复。 三个条件——$BTC 站稳85000、$ETH 收复20日均线、ETF资[Google Opens the Door for Crypto Ads in the UAE, But Not Everyone Can Enter]
Starting October 21, Google $GOOGL will adjust its crypto advertising rules in the UAE: crypto exchanges and software wallets can advertise as long as they obtain licenses from specified regulatory bodies and pass Google Ads certification. Recognized authorities include VARA, DFSA, FSRA, and CMA.
The key point is that customer acquisition channels are now tied to compliance licenses. For exchanges wanting to enter the UAE market, having a license is not enough; they must also pass Google's approval. Smaller platforms, unlicensed operators, and businesses relying on ad-driven traffic may face higher competition barriers. Google has not fully opened crypto ads; ICOs and some DeFi trading services remain restricted.
This is a channel benefit for compliant platforms, not a major boon for the entire crypto market. Ads can bring exposure but do not guarantee new users, trading volume, or revenue realization. There is currently no evidence that this policy will directly boost $BTC or other tokens. The next step is to see how many exchanges actually get certified and whether advertising converts into real business; otherwise, no matter how good the license looks, it may just be an expensive entry ticket.[Even a 400x subscription couldn't save it, Elice plunged 33% on its first day of listing: Is the AI infrastructure story no longer selling?]
South Korean AI infrastructure company Elice debuted on KOSDAQ on October 20, with its stock price falling to a low of 61,000 KRW during the session, down about 32.6% from the issue price of 90,500 KRW. This IPO raised approximately 201.1 billion KRW, with retail subscription oversubscribed by more than 400 times and institutional subscription close to 389 times. The contrast between the frenzied subscription and the collective foot voting after listing is striking.
In fact, Elice's fundamentals are not terrible: revenue in the first half of this year was 34.4 billion KRW, operating profit 10.3 billion KRW, already exceeding last year's full-year operating profit. But investors are not just buying growth; they are also paying for future data center expansion, financing costs, and return cycles. During the same period, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index fell about 3.7%, with Samsung $SAMSUNG and SK Hynix $SKHY also under pressure, and sentiment in the AI infrastructure sector clearly cooling.
I tend to view this plunge as a signal of simultaneous cooling in valuation and sentiment, not as evidence that AI demand has peaked. What really matters is whether Elice can convert revenue growth into sustained cash flow and whether global data center investments can deliver returns. If performance continues to grow but the stock price remains weak, it may indicate that the market's concern is not just overvaluation but the industry's overall payback speed.$APR is expected to be weak over the next three days. On October 23rd, tokens equivalent to 47% of the circulating supply will be released, making this week the most pressure-intensive window. Within 24 hours, the price rose from 0.02357 to 0.03141, then fell back to 0.02886. The failure to hold the high indicates that some are using the rebound to sell. Long positions worth $320,000 were liquidated, more than three times the short positions, meaning the leveraged buyers have already been shaken out once. Contract open interest is about $10 million, which is thin compared to trading volume, so the price is mainly determined by the spot market. Before the unlock, spot holders have more incentive to reduce positions early. We backtested events where the unlock volume exceeded 10% of circulation; in the 7 days before unlock, performance lagged the broader market, with about three-quarters of samples closing negative. The descending trendline and bearish moving averages on the chart align with this direction, and the RSI at 35 remains in the weak zone. Over the next three days, I lean toward a pullback near 0.02357. The condition to turn bullish is a volume-backed close above 0.03141 and holding that level for a full trading day. Backtesting after the unlock day shows no stable direction; this judgment only applies through the 23rd.First, a bit of cold water: seeing a long position opened doesn't mean seeing an opportunity. Core Trader 02 (0x9c062c…00560) newly opened or added a long position on $SOXL with 10x leverage, nominal position about $50,000. I am bearish on the margin for error in this trade, not asserting the price will definitely drop, so don't get excited too quickly.
I'm stuck on two points: first, roughly calculating with 10x leverage, the initial margin for this position is about $5,000; if the price moves 1% against it, the loss is about 10% of the initial margin, not including fees; the actual liquidation point depends on the margin mode and additional funds, so you can't directly take this ratio as the liquidation line. Second, monitoring only tells me he bought, it doesn't tell me if this is a standalone bullish bet or part of a hedged combination. Mistaking one leg of someone else's strategy for the whole strategy is the easiest way to misread intentions. If the price moves against you, the worst is someone leveraged in that direction without setting risk boundaries.
I also admit he might be right. If the price continues to stay above this reference price of about $95.2691, and after a pullback can strengthen again, I will reduce my bearish bias rather than stubbornly hold it for face. These are my observation conditions, not a market that has already happened. For this 10x long position, do you stand long or short? Please explain your reasons: do you value directional judgment more, or the margin for error under leverage?After a technical rebound on Monday, Asian stocks returned to a decline on Tuesday, as key U.S. earnings reports are due Wednesday, prompting tech stocks to remain relatively cautious.
Macroeconomic pressures persist, with Brent crude prices holding near $110, causing market confidence in AI trading to remain fragile. Meanwhile, SoftBank's credit risk has risen to its highest level in four years, further fueling market concerns.
During the Q3 U.S. earnings season, the market wants to see whether companies can prove that AI can generate profits to cover the heavy capital expenditures. South Korea's Elice Group is the first to face this test; due to macro pressures and market skepticism, the Korean stock market saw a sharp drop during the opening.
The key earnings reports on Wednesday are META and TSLA, both needing to provide satisfactory answers to the market:
META: Can revenue growth cover AI capital expenditures?
TSLA: Corporate profits still cannot support the AI and autonomous taxi narrative.
If these answers fail to meet market expectations, valuations of U.S. tech stocks will need adjustment; even meeting expectations will be suppressed by macro pressures. Only an earnings report that exceeds expectations can counter the current macro pressures! The focus now is on tonight's U.S. market performance! #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 After $BAT's price was pushed up by the whales, no one took over the position, so the tokens couldn't be sold.Laba S&P 500 Q2 2026 tumbuh 47,4% YoY dengan Energy (135,3%), Communication Services (109,8%), dan Consumer Discretionary (90,7%) di posisi teratas. Di grafik tertulis Consumer Discretionary melonjak 91% di Q2. Akan tetapi diperkirakan hanya 2% di Q3. Penyebabnya dikarenakan EPS GAAP Amazon di Q2 memuat pendapatan non-operasional pra-pajak $53,4 miliar, terutama dari investasi di Anthropic. Alphabet mencatat keuntungan valuasi serupa. Sehingga jika dihitung tanpa Alphabet dan Amazon, pertumbuh油价又回到110美元附近了，但真正让我皱眉的不是油价本身。 你猜衍生品市场现在在赌什么？ 表面上看，中东供应担忧把原油重新推回110.70美元，美国稍微松了对俄罗斯能源的限制也没能安抚住情绪。高油价、通胀、利率压力这套组合拳还在压着风险资产。但奇怪的是，上周现货ETF的流出数字反而在收窄——BTC约2.28亿美元，ETH约3.2亿美元，SOL约2600万美元。卖压在减速，可机构并没有回来。 这就是我觉得最别扭的地方：价格在关键位附近晃，资金却没有明确方向。 从资金偏好的角度看，现在不是谁在买的问题，是谁都不敢先动。BTC卡在80000、ETH守着2400、SOL盯着100，这三个位置像三道门槛，没有放量突破之前，任何反弹都只能算修复，不能算反转。衍生品这边更微妙——如果资金费率还偏正、持仓没有明显出清，那所谓的"卖压放缓"可能只是空头暂时收手，而不是多头回归。一旦油价再往上拱，最先被挤压的反而是那些高杠杆的短线多头。 偏多的路径也存在：油价如果见顶回落，通胀预期松一口气，ETF流出继续收窄甚至转正，BTC带量站上80000，ETH跟上2400，山寨才有机会喘。但这条路径需要成交量确认，【$527 million inflow in a single day, is $BTC starting a counterattack?】
The US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $526.7 million on Monday, hitting a new high since September 22. It looks like institutions are coming back in force, but breaking it down, BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbed $665.2 million, while Fidelity and Grayscale saw outflows of $83.6 million and $54.9 million respectively. IBIT is the only one with a net inflow in the entire market, so the money is not evenly distributed.
Previously, the ETF had a cumulative net outflow of about $617 million in October, and one day has reduced the gap to about $90.6 million. But this can only be seen as a recovery, not a complete bullish reversal yet.
On Monday, BTC ETFs attracted significant capital, but $ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of $103.3 million, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of losses. Funds are temporarily more willing to bet on BTC, which does not mean the entire crypto market is strengthening simultaneously.
This is a buying signal worth noting, but a single day's inflow is not enough to confirm a trend reversal. The key things to watch next are: whether BTC ETFs can maintain continuous net inflows and whether prices can strengthen in sync. If funds keep flowing in and prices hold steady, this rally will look more like a genuine handoff; if it only lasts one day, it might just be a breather after a deep decline. Visa and Mesh are testing a practical distribution thesis: stablecoin spending may advance fastest when merchants need not adopt new rails. Routing and conversion behind existing Visa systems remove a visible friction point, but they do not establish recurring consumer demand. Coverage creates optionality; payment volume still has to be earned.
#VisaMeshStablecoinPay 我最近发现了一条很有意思的美股交易策略：中期选举前期买入标普 500，第二年四月份卖出，过去70多年，历史回测100% 赚钱！ 现在就就在节骨眼，我给大家分享一下。 最近我在研究美国中期选举，翻了一下过去几十年标普500的表现，发现一个挺有意思的规律。 我们平时做美股，要研究美联储、CPI、非农、企业财报，天天盯着各种数据。但其实美国每四年举行一次的中期选举，本身就存在一个值得关注的交易窗口。 策略很简单：中期选举当年10月买入标普500，持有到第二年4月，或者继续持有到第二年10月。 历史数据有多夸张？ 从1950年到2022年，美国一共经历了19次中期选举。 如果在选举当年10月买入标普500，按照历史月平均价格计算： ① 持有到次年4月，平均收益率+14.6%，19次全部盈利。 ② 持有到次年10月，平均收益率+18.2%，同样19次全部盈利。 ③ 如果改成中期选举当天买入，持有12个月，平均涨幅约15.1%，也是19次全部上涨。 也就是说，过去70多年，按照这套历史统计口径，每隔四年参与一次这个交易窗口，结果都相当不错。 当然，这里需要说明一下，前两组数据采用月平均价格回测，实