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Gold’s return above $4,500/oz on Aug. 20 looks more significant when viewed through positioning, not price alone. SPDR Gold Shares added 9.41 tonnes, reaching 1,034.65 tonnes. Meanwhile, 53 China-listed gold funds grew by RMB26.8B since the start of August, reaching RMB424.2B by Aug. 19. That broader fund participation can reinforce the rally—but it also raises the cost of disappointment. A weaker dollar, lower Treasury yields and persistent deficit concerns remain supportive. But rising long-te⚠️ Basent's Statement
The scale of U.S. Treasury buybacks is expected to exceed $4 billion
At the same time, it points out that the current U.S. Treasury yields have deviated from fundamentals
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Recently, long-term U.S. Treasury yields have continued to rise
The Treasury Department plans to buy back long-term government bonds
Aiming to lower long-term interest rates and stabilize the bond market
This is a debt management operation by the Treasury Department
Not a Federal Reserve money printing
Billions in buybacks compared to trillions in the U.S. Treasury market
💥 More of a confidence signal
Hard to completely reverse the major trend in the bond market
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When he says yields do not reflect fundamentals
He means the yield increase is not entirely driven by economic data
To a large extent, it is market panic
Driven by trading sentiment from massive bond issuance
"From the crypto market perspective, this is a short-term positive sentiment"
If buybacks can suppress U.S. Treasury yields
Dollar pressure will ease, and funds will favor risk assets
Beneficial for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin $BTC $ETH $SOL
But don't be overly optimistic, this is only a relief measure
It cannot solve the root cause of the U.S.'s large fiscal deficit
Once buybacks are implemented and yields rebound again📈
⚠️ Risk assets will face correction pressure
‼️ Currently, the crypto space is caught in a dual battle between macro interest rates and U.S. regulation
✅ On one side, watch U.S. Treasury yield trends
✅ On the other, closely monitor the September 15 vote on the "Clear Act"
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 😭😭😭 $3.4 billion in short positions buried alive, 194,800 people liquidated, and I am one of them
Last week I wrote four or five articles bearish on BTC. Every reason was true. ETFs are withdrawing, whales are running, funding rates are negative to the floor.
Then BTC surged from 64,000 to 72,000. My 63,200 short position was stopped out at 63,300.
In 24 hours, 194,800 people were liquidated for $3.4 billion, 92% were shorts. The biggest massacre since 2021. I witnessed history, the cost was experiencing history firsthand.
The most ironic thing is, none of my bearish reasons were false. But with Trump holding meetings in the White House, the SEC pushing new regulations, and the Treasury expanding bond buybacks, these three things combined caused a bullish candle to shoot up.
You talk to me about RSI? One sentence from Trump outweighs a hundred RSIs.
Just like with SanDisk. After a 47% drop, I chased shorts and got killed by a 60% rebound. After a week of decline, I was bearish again and got squeezed out with stop losses. The same mistake twice — chasing shorts during a downtrend and getting blown up by rebounds. Seems like I only learned one thing: shorting.
But stop losses were still right. The 63,300 stop loss cost me 100 points, but without it, at 72,000, my 400U would have been wiped out eightfold. Stop losses don’t stop you from making money, they stop you from dying.
Now I have no positions, neither chasing longs nor shorts. Shorting in a policy-driven market is like going against Trump, and I don’t have that courage yet. Chasing longs at 72,000? I’m not going to turn the other cheek after getting slapped on the left.
The $3.4 billion graveyard grass hasn’t even grown yet, why rush. $BTC $ETH $OKB #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ 一、ETF机构资金（外部增量资金窗口） BTC现货ETF日内呈现高位分歧，前一日大额净流入之后，今日短线止盈卖盘增多，机构没有在冲高阶段追高，大额主动扫单稀缺，资金以场内调仓为主。ETH现货ETF同样出现短线兑现，虽然近期整体流入趋势回暖，但币价上涨幅度远超ETF资金流入规模，本轮拉升并非外部合规机构资金主导。机构资金当前保持谨慎观望，持续净流入才是趋势延续的关键信号。 二、链上巨鲸资金（中长期筹码视角） 长线巨鲸底仓稳定，持续将BTC、ETH从交易所提入自托管钱包锁仓，长期筹码沉淀逻辑不变；短线交易型巨鲸在72000上方分批转入筹码到交易所止盈调仓，没有一致性大举加仓。山寨方向，短线巨鲸快速切换至MEME热点BOME、PUMP快进快出，前期热门过气妖币大多已经被巨鲸高位派发离场 。 三、聪明钱地址资金（短线主力行为） 长线聪明钱维持底仓不动；短线聪明钱借着本轮大涨快速轮动，一部分博弈XRP主线行情，另一部分在MEME热点短线博弈，杠杆仓位灵活进出。当前聪明钱并未集体单边看多，调仓换股成为现阶段主要动作。 四、合约衍生品资金（本轮行情核心推手） 全网未平仓总Although SK Hynix announced a buyback and increased holdings, this positive news seems to have come too late, and the market rebound is not very strong. However, SK Hynix's performance in the Korean stock market has never been strong. Let's see how the US stock market performs tonight; or maybe storage really has a hard time rising.
But in the long run, storage is essentially a cyclical stock. Although storage chip prices are very high now (servers have become super expensive), next year or the year after might be a turning point for the storage industry. Why do I say this?
One reason is that these US-listed storage companies are also vigorously building factories and expanding capacity. Another is that downstream companies will start looking for alternatives. Also, based on the capacity projections of Chinese companies like ChangXin, the impact on the entire industry in the next couple of years will be significant. Our Chinese manufacturing industry is strong and very good at expanding capacity and engaging in price wars (similar to lithium batteries).
This is also why when listed companies release financial reports and mention large investments in AI, the market falls instead of rises, because many investors feel that this money might really not be recovered.
Right now, you can still trade SanDisk in waves, but it feels like it will be harder to do so in the future. The previously mentioned level starting with 14 hasn't been reached yet, so just wait a bit longer. 买在无人问津处，卖在人声鼎沸时。 今天，市场大幅度上涨，整个市场一副欣欣向荣的样子。 这种时候，很多人受到情绪的感染，就会忍不住的想要做多。 或者，忍不住想要做空。 我认为，在这种情绪化的时候，不应该去追逐热点。 追逐热点往往会让自己受伤，哪怕一时赚了钱，最后也很有可能连本带利吐出去。 这种时候，我们最应该做的，就是把心静下来，去看那些无人问津的币。 —————————————————— 我个人认为，$BEAT 的庄家很有可能借着这波大涨洗好了盘。 因为$BEAT 一直阴跌，而市场上其他的币却大幅度上涨。 这种情况下，持有$BEAT 的人心里面难免会有许多失落。 失落之后，很多人就会割肉去追高。 如此一来，筹码自然就集中到了庄家的手里。 庄家拿到筹码，自然会一路推高。 因为如果价格推不上去，市场上的大资金很难进来。 —————————————————— 我们来看一下它的数据。 可以发现，它这个合约持仓量和多空比在同步的升高，这说明目前还是有很多人在做多的。 我们再看一下更长一点时间的数据。 可以发现，更长一点时间的数据和短一点时间的数据几乎一致。 这都表明，市场上是有多头在收集筹码的#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
I am Cige. After SanDisk surged to 1800, it started fluctuating at high levels. On August 18, it once dropped more than 9% at the open, and after rebounding intraday on August 19, it fell about 3.5% again. The divergence in the storage sector is widening.
The long-term growth targets released on Investor Day are the core driving force behind the sector's rebound. Goldman Sachs set a target price of $2200, JPMorgan raised it to $2250, and long-term contracts lock in nearly $100 billion in revenue over the next four years. However, short-term funds are switching repeatedly at high levels because the pace of valuation repricing has outpaced fundamental verification.
Bank of America believes SanDisk's long-term targets can provide a reference for Micron's valuation, but the key lies in NAND price trends, the execution strength of customer agreements, and whether AI server demand can continue to support profit margins. SK Hynix announced a 40 trillion KRW buyback, but its stock price still fell about 9.2% that day, indicating that while the market rewards long-term narratives, it is also adjusting short-term valuations.
SanDisk's long-term logic has not been overturned, but the cost-effectiveness of chasing gains in the short term is declining. The storage sector is moving from an emotional recovery phase into a fundamental verification phase, a process that will not happen overnight and will continue to be volatile. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. Cige has finished speaking; take your time to savor it. $BTC $ETH $SNDK 哈哈，说实话已经有点麻木了。 ETH这一波拉得确实够猛，短时间从低位快速冲上去，空头也被连续清算。市场数据显示，ETH空头清算规模已经超过10亿美元，短线逼空效应非常明显。 我自己的操作反而比较克制：小仓位试探，绝不重仓追。 目前我的判断依然偏谨慎，甚至短线还是偏空，但并不代表现在就要直接去做空。因为这种强势逼空行情，逆势开空很容易被再次拉爆。 前面吃过亏，所以这一次宁愿慢一点。 ETH会不会直接开启主升浪？ 这个问题我也认真想过。 如果只看K线，ETH现在确实很强；但如果从筹码和市场结构来看，我反而觉得这里存在一个比较大的陷阱。 历史上的大行情，很少是一条直线走出来的。 真正的大级别上涨之前，通常都会经历一轮充分的震荡、换手和筹码沉淀。市场需要先把不坚定的筹码洗出去，才能为后面的主升浪腾出空间。 而现在的问题就在这里： ETH刚刚快速拉升，前期低位筹码依然存在大量浮盈。 假设ETH在 2,250—2,350美元附近继续冲高，这里实际上仍然接近此前的密集成交区。 价格一旦继续上冲，前期低位抄底资金很可能开始兑现利润。 也就是说： 涨得越快，短线获利盘反而越重。 这也是为什么我现在不愿意This rally looks more like a broad repricing of liquidity risk than a BTC-only breakout. ETH is leading at +17.27% in 24 hours, while BTC and SOL are both up around 10%, a rotation pattern that usually signals expanding risk appetite rather than isolated demand.
Still, BTC slipping back below $72K after breaking it argues against chasing the first move. With the FOMC split in focus and gold reclaiming 4500, macro uncertainty has not disappeared. My bias is constructive, but confirmation now requires BTC to hold the breakout area while strength remains broad.
Not advice, just analysis.BTC and ETH Network-wide Open Interest Real-time Data Analysis (August 21, 11:08)
BTC Open Interest: As the price breaks through 72000, the total BTC open interest across the network has rapidly increased, with leverage levels continuously rising. A large number of short positions were liquidated in a chain reaction over the past day, significantly clearing short-side positions. Afterward, both longs and shorts began establishing new positions at high levels, with the long-short ratio slightly rising. Currently, the proportion of newly added short-term long positions has increased, but there is no sign of a one-sided frenzy of long stacking. Divergence at high levels continues to widen, and once the market turns, high-leverage positions are prone to triggering rapid linked liquidations.
ETH Open Interest: ETH's recent gains have outperformed BTC, with its open interest growth more pronounced than BTC's. Many previously trapped short positions have been closed out, and a large number of short-term longs have entered and opened positions during the rally, causing open interest to rise in tandem. ETH's leverage-driven capital battles are more intense, and liquidation volatility during market fluctuations often exceeds that of Bitcoin.
Overall Summary: The overall market leverage level has reached a recent high, with derivative funds being the main driver of this rally. The continuous rise in open interest indicates that market volatility will further increase. If subsequent spot incremental funds fail to take over, a severe shakeout at high levels could occur at any time.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ $BTC Liquidation Long Delta
LLD is now at 35 billion.
In all my years of analyzing crypto, I've never seen anything over 40B.
This suggests the tentative top is in and longs are past due for liquidation.
Probably high leverage longs, which are close by.现在全球金融市场完全是瞎搞。过去需要几年，几个月的走势，铺垫，现在完全按天反转，操控得脸都不要。这其实都问题不大，因为说明垄断金融资本主义结构性的矛盾难以调和，蒙代尔“不可能三角”已经变成了“不可能四角”，危机正在酝酿中。可是，这些跟我们国家，有多少本质联系呢？我们的A股市场，外资占比多少？4%。我们的国债，稳得很，又不需要救。我们的人民币汇率，正走向持续升值通道。我们的AI，和美国是一个路子吗？明明走的完全不同的路线那就请问，为什么外围市场一波动，我们就往死了杀，到底谁干的？别人今天跌，明天马上拉起来。我们这，永远反着来，根本不研究任何产业、发展，干的很多都是竭泽而渔、杀鸡取卵的事。周五，所谓的什么美债危机。自媒体炒一周了，说的好像美国完蛋了，一个比一个激进。就像之前，炒日本的汇率完蛋了，天天，不是这个完蛋了，就是那个完蛋了。而且，这样的“速胜派”“永远中国赢麻了一盘大棋”的言论，不会被删，传播很远，甚至可能影响政策。你三天两头说人家要崩，你自己崩的比人家还快还多，一个科技一个月回调怎么说？科创 50 指数 7 月单月下跌‑25.90%，刷新科创板成立以来历史最大单月跌幅**财富号结BTC and ETH Spot ETF Buy and Sell Real-Time Data Analysis (August 21, 11:07)
Bitcoin Spot ETF: The intraday pre-market period shows an overall divergent pattern. BlackRock IBIT remains the main trading target for funds, with large buy orders intermittently appearing on the order book, but short-term profit-taking sell orders continue to emerge, rapidly narrowing the gap between buy and sell orders. After recording a large net inflow yesterday, on-exchange funds show divergence today, with many short-term institutions choosing to take profits on rallies. Incremental off-exchange buy orders have not yet kept pace with the sharp rise in the market. Looking solely at ETF fund movements, institutions have not chased the highs in sync; this round of the market rally is mainly driven by short covering in the derivatives market.
Ethereum Spot ETF: The ETF market heat is weaker than Bitcoin's. The leading product ETHA shows a more balanced battle between buy and sell orders, with no large one-sided sweeps. After several consecutive days of net inflows in recent days, market sentiment has warmed, but following ETH's rapid short-term surge, on-exchange profit-taking sell orders have clearly increased. Some short-term funds have cashed out and exited, while new entrants are slower to enter. ETF fund inflows are much smaller than the price increase.
Overall Summary: Currently, the coin price has surged violently, but institutional fund sentiment at the ETF level remains cautious, with no sustained large incremental buy orders entering. If ETF funds can resume continuous net inflows later, it will further confirm the medium- to long-term continuation of this rally; if ETF inflows stagnate, the risk of high-level oscillation and correction will increase.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice.Walmart's earnings report was released, showing a decline in discretionary spending data, further deepening expectations of weakening U.S. consumption. Coupled with the current high oil prices and high inflation expectations, macro stagflation expectations are rising!
The current macro focus has returned to this week's main theme—the verification of U.S. economic growth and consumption. After Walmart's earnings report showed a decline in discretionary spending, combined with previous earnings from major U.S. home goods companies, the overall indication is that U.S. consumption is marginally weakening.
Under the premise of weakening consumption plus current high oil prices and high inflation expectations, the market has begun to anticipate stagflation trades. Until August 26, if crude oil prices cannot effectively decline and core PCE remains sticky or even rises, the market will price in stagflation.
Currently, in the financial markets, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has rebounded and risen again intraday. The Fed has increased long-term bond repurchases to ease current pressure on the bond market. The accelerated rise in gold prices indicates the exposure of economic risks.
Regarding U.S. stocks, although they have declined, the SPHB/SPHQ ratio remains stable, and the VIX index has not risen significantly, so the U.S. stock market is not in panic but in a defensive phase.
Tomorrow is the release of the U.S. August preliminary S&P PMI. The data itself does not carry much weight, but at this stage, it is very likely to guide the market on whether to trade stagflation expectations in advance. #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 The short squeeze rally is still ongoing, and the data on short liquidations continues to expand. Over the past 24 hours, more than $1.3 billion has been liquidated, with over 90% being short positions. The 72,500 level was hit, indicating that the shorts' defensive line set above 70,000 has been systematically targeted. As the price reaches this level, the driving logic has shifted from "buy-side pushing" to "shorts being forced to cover pushing." The faster the speed, the more unstable the foundation. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ The current market shows a divergence in the pricing logic for high-valuation assets, with the ability to deliver earnings directly determining the direction of position rebalancing during shifts in risk appetite.
Pop Mart's revenue for the first half of the year reached ¥17.17 billion, a 23.8% increase, while net profit attributable to the parent company grew only 10.1%. The slower profit growth compared to revenue has lowered market expectations for profit efficiency. Although the Star People IP's revenue grew nearly sixfold with 6 IPs generating over ¥1 billion each, declines in the Asia-Pacific and Americas markets indicate growth remains heavily reliant on the domestic market.
The drivers influencing position adjustments are ranked as follows: whether actual profit margins can be restored, whether overseas markets can accelerate growth again, and the spillover effect of next week's $NVDA earnings report on risk appetite in high-valuation sectors.
In the bullish scenario, a recovery in overseas business combined with $NVDA's earnings guidance exceeding expectations next week will boost market risk appetite and trigger position replenishment. The trigger condition for this scenario is a return to revenue growth in overseas regions. Variables to watch include the proportion of institutional position increases, with a failure signal being heavy selling pressure on high-valuation assets.
In the bearish scenario, if multiple IP switches fail to offset overseas declines and high-valuation premiums are squeezed, long positions will face deleveraging and exit pressure. The trigger condition here is further constraints on profitability. Variables to monitor include the depth of sector-wide pullbacks, with a failure signal being a rapid decline in trading volume followed by a halt in price drops.
The failure condition for the above judgments is a significant overall macro risk appetite rebound, causing capital to temporarily ease strict scrutiny of profit margins.
The core variables to observe over the next 7 days are the rhythm of institutional holdings changes following the $NVDA earnings release and the net capital flow in high-valuation sectors.
#宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧Is the money coming back again? Wall Street is re-leveraging SK Hynix
$SKHY has shown a very interesting signal:
Wall Street is re-leveraging SK Hynix.
At the most crowded time last year, banks quoted swap long positions on SK Hynix at rates as high as SOFR + 1000 basis points.
And now?
Institutions like Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan have already compressed the financing spread to about 150–300 basis points.
The cost has been cut significantly.
More important than "cheaper" behind this is the fact that previously banks feared not SK Hynix's fundamentals, but that all clients were crowded on the same side, with overly concentrated positions, making even the banks' own balance sheets unwilling to take on more risk.
After this round of intense AI stock adjustments, some crowded trades have been cleared, and banks' risk capacity has actually been released again.
Even banks that previously rejected clients are now actively seeking business.
When financing costs drop and leverage channels reopen, the threshold for funds to go long is lowered accordingly.
This does not necessarily mean the stock price will immediately reverse. US stock investment websites believe:
Wall Street's most extreme "crowding risk alert" for SK Hynix is being lifted.
$MU $SNDK #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 #Government bond issues resurface
Yesterday, I just commented that Besant's repurchase efforts were insufficient, and today the US Treasury yield has risen again, approaching around 4.6%.
This is the consequence of government intervention, which causes the market to suffer greater backlash, turning short-term problems into long-term structural issues.
Fortunately, most global macro hedge funds are based on Wall Street, so hopefully they won't be so ruthless as to short their own country, hopefully...
Tonight, the US stock, currency, and bond markets are all under pressure. The Nasdaq's support at 26,000 is precarious. I mentioned yesterday that the decline in this crisis might be around 10%, which is near 24,400 by the end of July. Of course, it might not reach that level, but having this psychological expectation will prevent being scared by price pullbacks.
At the same time, there is no need to rush to bottom-fish now; from both time and space perspectives, it's not yet the moment. The situation needs to develop further, with the speech by Walsh on the 28th being a key point.
Gold continues to remain strong. Now Wall Street collectively starts to turn bullish. Citibank's research report indicates a baseline scenario of $5,000, optimistically up to $6,000. I think reaching $5,000 would already be good, and I will take profits.
Last night, Moderna in the US announced the success of the phase 3 trial of the immunotherapy drug Keytruda, significantly reducing cancer recurrence rates. This is good news for humanity. Today, the A-share innovative drug sector surged. I have previously emphasized that innovative drugs are a short-term strong sector with sustained heat, so continue holding.
Meanwhile, the tech sector's momentum has been drained, coupled with bond-related negatives for AI infrastructure, leading to recent pullbacks. Slightly reducing positions or continuing to hold steadily is fine. This round of bond turmoil is expected to end in September.
Bitcoin performed brilliantly yesterday, driven by the crypto industry executives summoned by the Trump supporter and another call to buy. I think this is also a short-term move. The bigger support factor, like gold, comes from the US Treasury issue. Whether Bitcoin can break through 70,000 and subsequently surpass the bull-bear dividing line at 78,000 depends on whether the Clarity Act passes in September.
I continue to emphasize position sizing and risk control. Now gold can account for 10% of a long-term portfolio, and gold ETFs are more suitable for beginners. Silver, due to its weaker financial attributes compared to gold, will only follow gold's rise later, so patience is required.
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of the risks. This wave is driven by favorable policies and short squeeze liquidations; its sustainability depends on three factors
Whether ETFs can maintain net inflows, whether the September "CLARITY Act" vote will pass, and whether the Fed's rate cut expectations will materialize.
If all three are fulfilled, the rally can continue; if any one fails, this wave might end here.
Chasing the highs now? Think carefully for yourself. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
Recently, the storage sector has experienced a "expectation trade."
After SanDisk's Investor Day announced long-term growth targets, its stock price surged, and the market began to reprice storage demand in the AI era. The company proposed maintaining mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth over the next few years and improving profit stability through long-term customer agreements.
However, the stock price quickly retreated afterward, dropping more than 9% intraday on August 18. Storage stocks like SK Hynix and Micron also experienced repeated fluctuations.
The AI storage logic is real, but the short-term valuation has already priced in too much expectation.
In the past, the market speculated on "AI needing more computing power," but now it is further focusing on "how AI-generated data is stored."
This is why NAND, HBM, and data center storage have become focal points for capital.
If future AI infrastructure investment continues to expand, storage companies may enter a new profit cycle.
But if the market finds AI capital expenditure growth below expectations, the high-valuation sector may continue to undergo repricing.
For the crypto market, this is also an important signal:
Now, capital is chasing not only BTC and ETH but the entire AI infrastructure chain.
In the next phase, truly strong assets may come from the intersection of "AI + financial liquidity."
The market won't just look at stories; ultimately, it must return to cash flow and growth realization.
$SNDK $SKHY $MU The earnings season these days is quite interesting: a couple of days ago Xiaomi talked about "people, cars, and homes"
Today POPMART submitted its report, and next week it's Nvidia's turn to answer whether the money for AI can keep burning.
At first glance, POPMART's report looks solid, but on a second look, I'm a bit hesitant to chase.
Revenue for the first half of the year was ¥17.17 billion, up 23.8%, but net profit attributable to the parent company only increased by 10.1%.
Revenue is still growing, but profit growth is slowing down. The market can no longer just look at how many blind boxes were sold; it also needs to consider profit margins, inventory turnover, and overseas expansion efficiency.
The most critical change is the cooling off of LABUBU, while Star People grew nearly sixfold.
The good news is that POPMART is not completely tied to a single IP; six IPs generated over ¥1 billion in revenue each, which also proves that its incubation system really has substance; but the bad news is that both Asia-Pacific and the Americas are declining, making the domestic market the main support.
Today, Star People takes over, but that doesn't mean it can replicate another LABUBU tomorrow, nor does it mean overseas markets will automatically recover.
So I think POPMART hasn't ended its growth but has shifted from a "blockbuster market" to an "operational test": watching whether multiple IPs can continuously take over, whether overseas can accelerate again, and whether profits can catch up with revenue.
Next week, Nvidia faces the same situation.
One sells emotional value, the other sells computing power, but in front of high valuations, both have to answer the same question: after the story is told, can profits still be realized.
$POPMART $ETH $BTC #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ I see many friends, like me, were doing well with dual currency trading but suddenly sold off prematurely. However, I think this is not a big problem, really not.
First, let me talk about my test account. I started with $10,100 when Bitcoin was at $64,000. With that amount, I could buy 0.158 BTC. Currently, this amount has grown to $11,385.78. Based on the current Bitcoin price of $71,100, I could buy 0.16 BTC.
In other words, from a BTC perspective, I haven't actually lost money, and it doesn't mean I can't continue with dual currency trading. Of course, the difficulty now is much higher. Previously, I calculated that I could bear a Bitcoin cost below $65,000, but now it's $71,000, and at $65,000 there is almost no profit.
If you want to earn returns, you either hold long-term, like one to two months, but that doesn't align with my investment philosophy. So, don't focus on the price but on the yield. I usually choose a volatility range of 3% to 5%. For example, today I chose a low buy at $69,000.
If the drop exceeds 3%, then I might get filled. I can accept a cost of $69,000, which is equivalent to buying at $63,000 initially, so it's okay. If I don't get filled, then a 46% interest is also good.
In the short term, this is how I plan to proceed. The test account expires tomorrow; today, the one expiring is my personal account.Brothers, in the early morning of August 20 Beijing time, the minutes of the July FOMC meeting were officially released. The result can be summed up in one sentence: the hawkish stance is stronger than expected, and the 9-to-3 split is just the tip of the iceberg. Behind the 9-to-3 vote is a broader hawkish camp. At the July 28-29 policy meeting, the FOMC voted 9 in favor and 3 against to keep the federal funds rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range for the fifth consecutive time. The three dissenting regional Fed presidents—Logan of Dallas, Harker of Cleveland, and Kashkari of Minneapolis—all advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. But the minutes show that the support for a rate hike extends beyond these three. The minutes state: "Several participants favored raising the target range by 25 basis points at this meeting"—a phrase that typically implies more than three people. More notably, Kansas City Fed President George and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who did not have voting rights at the time, also said after the meeting that they would have supported a rate hike if they had voting rights. This was the most divided Fed vote since 2016. The two camps' reasoning: hike now vs. wait a bit longer. Hawks believe that price pressures are broadly spreading and the committee should adopt a more restrictive stance. If they don't hike now, they may be forced into "a larger, more costly series of tightenings" in the future. Doves believe that new data from July to mid-September can provide more clues and reduce uncertainty about the inflation outlook. The minutes described the inflation outlook with four words: "highly uncertain." Participants mentioned the escalation of Middle East conflicts and tariff transmission.#Gold returns above $4500, institutional disagreements intensify On August 20, spot gold climbed back above $4500 during intraday trading. It took only 3 days to move from 4430 to 4500. The capital side is also cooperating, with SPDR Gold ETF increasing holdings by 9.41 tons in a single day to 1034.65 tons, and 53 domestic gold-themed funds surpassing 420 billion in scale. This is not retail investors buying; institutions are adding positions.
However, disagreements have started within institutions. UBS sees $5000 in the first half of 2027, while Wells Fargo has lowered its target price for this year and next. When bullish and bearish views diverge, it often indicates the market has reached a critical point.
Several underlying drivers remain. A weaker dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields, and concerns over fiscal deficits all support gold’s long-term logic. U.S. debt is approaching 40 trillion, with interest expenses continuously rising. Gold’s appeal as the ultimate credit anchor is being repriced.
For BTC, the sustained strength in gold is a positive signal. Both share the logic of easing rate expectations, but gold’s rise is more about long-term capital allocation, while BTC’s rise is more a short-term reflection of liquidity expectations. Gold holding above 4500 supports BTC’s macro narrative.
However, risks of chasing gains at high levels are accumulating. If long-term interest rates rise again or risk appetite continues to recover, gold will face significant short-term correction pressure. Gold has taken the lead; whether BTC can keep up depends on whether next week’s CPI and employment data continue to support the warming of easing expectations. $XAU $BTC $ETH BTC returns to 70000, what is really driving this rally?
BTC has stood above 70000 USD again after nearly three months.
The 24-hour peak increase exceeded 7%, reaching a new high since early June; ETH also strengthened simultaneously, once breaking through 2300 USD.
In the past week, short positions in the market were massively liquidated, totaling over 1.3 billion USD.
I believe this rally is mainly driven by four factors together.
First, short squeeze.
This is the most direct catalyst.
Previously, the market concentrated on shorting for several consecutive days. As BTC broke through key resistance, a large number of shorts were forced to close positions.
Price increases triggered more stop losses, and stop losses further pushed prices up.
Thus forming:
Rise → Short covering → Passive buying → Price continues to rise → More shorts liquidated.
This is a typical short squeeze market.
But it should be noted that the short squeeze is responsible for initiating the rally; what truly determines how far the rally can go is the subsequent spot capital.
Second, regulatory expectations have clearly improved.
Recently, positive changes have appeared in U.S. crypto regulatory policies. The CLARITY Act and the SEC's advancement of the digital asset regulatory framework have led the market to start trading under a new logic:
Crypto assets are gradually moving from "high-risk speculative products" into the U.S. financial regulatory system.
For institutional funds, this increase in policy certainty is very important.
Because what institutions really lack is never money, but a compliant channel to enter the market.
Third, liquidity expectations improved due to the U.S. long-term Treasury repurchase policy.
After the U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of Treasury repurchases, market concerns about long-term U.S. bond yields and liquidity have been alleviated temporarily.
For high beta risk assets like BTC, the easing of long-term interest rate pressure itself is a marginal positive.
Fourth, and what I consider the most important—the return of ETF funds.
One of the biggest pressures on BTC previously was the lack of sustained incremental funds during price rebounds.
But recently, spot ETFs have shown significant net inflows again.
This means the market is undergoing a change:
From "short covering driving the rally" gradually transitioning to "spot capital taking over the rally."
If ETF funds can continue to maintain net inflows, then the nature of this rally will change.
It will no longer be just an oversold rebound.
⸻
Of course, risks have not disappeared.
The Federal Reserve still has obvious divisions, and uncertainties remain regarding inflation, employment, and subsequent policy paths.
So what really needs to be observed now is not whether BTC can stand above 70000.
But:
Whether 70000 USD can truly turn from a resistance level into a new support level.
If the following occurs:
Sideways trading above 70000 → Pullback without breaking → Continued ETF inflows → Another volume-driven rise
Then the height of this rally can continue to target 72000–75000 USD, or even further challenge higher areas.
But if after breaking 70000, ETF funds weaken again and the price quickly falls back below 70000, then caution is needed:
This rally is mainly driven by short liquidation rather than a trend reversal.
So the most worth paying attention to now is actually this sentence:
Short liquidation can send BTC to 70000, but only real incremental funds can keep BTC above 70000.
This is also the key to whether this rally can upgrade from a "short squeeze rebound" to a "trend rally." $BTC #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ International Spot Gold (London Gold Spot) Real-time Market Data Analysis as of August 20, 23:02
Current price is $4515 per ounce, with a 24-hour increase of +0.1%. After an early session surge breaking through the 4583 stage high, it has pulled back and fluctuated in the short term, currently in a high-level consolidation phase to digest positions.
Key price levels: First support at 4470, strong support at 4440; short-term resistance at 4583 (intraday high). Upon a valid breakout, the target range above is 4650-4700.
Market capital flow: Yesterday, the US Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchase triggered a sharp rally. After the positive effect was realized, bulls began short-term profit-taking; gold ETFs have seen sustained medium- to long-term accumulation, indicating that the long-term capital layout logic remains unchanged, but short-term speculative funds are starting to diverge. Currently, the crypto market is experiencing a breakout, with some short-term liquidity flowing out from precious metals into the crypto space.
Overall, the medium- to long-term bullish logic for gold still holds, but after short-term overbought conditions, the risk of a volatile pullback increases. The cost-effectiveness of chasing higher positions at elevated levels is relatively low. Going forward, focus will be on changes in US Treasury yields and the US dollar index to judge signals for a new market cycle.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice$BTC $ETH $SOL The most heartbreaking scene in this market rally is not how much BTC has risen, but that when it rose, the once most popular DOGE didn't even touch $0.12. Capital only recognizes BTC; Meme coins are abandoned — this is not an emotional complaint, but the harsh reality unfolding in the market.
Just look at the data to see how extreme the divergence is. $BTC climbed from the low of $60,000 in February this year to above $70,000, with whales increasing holdings by 66,700 coins over 60 days, worth over $4 billion, and addresses holding thousands of coins have been adding for three consecutive weeks; but what about $DOGE? It has been steadily declining from $0.12 last December to around $0.07, spending the entire month of August fluctuating between $0.064 and $0.083, with the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages all pressing down overhead, unable even to break the first resistance at $0.078. One is attracting capital, the other is bleeding; same market, two different destinies.
Why has capital suddenly become so "single-minded"? Because the nature of the money entering this round has changed. Institutional funds brought by spot ETFs and long-term buyers with treasury allocation strategies are buying the narrative of "digital gold," compliance, and balance sheet allocation. This type of capital will not buy a dog coin with unlimited issuance priced by social hype. After retail sentiment fades, DOGE loses its only engine — attention. When BTC falls, it falls harder; when BTC rises, it only dares to follow symbolically. High beta characteristics amplify gains in a bull market but become a meat grinder in a zero-sum game. #BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue? $BTC Hello everyone, this rally in Bitcoin is extremely strong!
Let's look at the facts: Bitcoin broke through $72,000, reaching a new high since early June, with a cumulative increase of over 10% in two days. In 24 hours, about $3.4 billion worth of liquidations occurred across the network, affecting nearly 190,000 people, with shorts accounting for more than 90%, marking the largest short liquidation wave on record since 2021.
Can it continue? There is evidence for both bulls and bears:
Bullish evidence is real money: Yesterday, the US spot ETF saw a net inflow of $517 million in a single day, the highest since May 4; on-chain, whales have increased their holdings by about 43,000 BTC in the past 60 days. This rally is not just shorts being forced to cover; there is indeed incremental capital entering the spot market.
Bearish risk is overheated leverage: Funding rates have risen to a 20-month high, RSI has entered the overbought zone, and the short squeeze momentum will inevitably weaken after large-scale liquidations; moreover, the CLARITY Act is still stalled in the Senate, so policy benefits are currently only expectations.
My view: This rally looks more like the "start of valuation repair plus structural reversal" rather than a simple rebound episode. The ETF and on-chain spot buying are the scarcest elements in a short squeeze rally, and both have appeared, indicating that there are real buyers willing to take positions above $70,000. But don't chase in the short term: short squeezes come fast and go fast. Next, watch for two confirmation signals: whether the $70,250 support holds on a pullback, and whether a volume breakout above $73,200 can challenge the $75,000–$77,400 range. If support holds, this rally confirms a bear-to-bull transition; if not, it remains a range-bound market. $BTC broke through 72000, rising 11.8% in 24 hours, with a total liquidation of $2.99 billion across the network, shorts were swept away in one wave. This is not a mild rebound; it is a self-reinforcing short squeeze. Every time the price surges to a new level, more shorts get liquidated, and the buying from these liquidations pushes the price higher until all the most stubborn shorts are completely cleared out.
There are three core drivers. The Treasury Department expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, causing the 30-year US Treasury yield to plunge sharply from 5.33% to 5.19%, loosening the tightest constraint on BTC from long-term interest rates. Short positions are too full, and the market has been consolidating with low volatility for too long. Once the price breaks a key level, all shorts are on the same boat. ETFs have continuous net inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing over $200 million inflow in a single day, indicating allocation funds are entering.
72000 is the new key level; holding above it requires sustained spot trading and ETF capital relay. If incremental funds continue to enter, the short squeeze may shift into a trend-driven rally. If spot support is insufficient, high-level pullbacks and renewed leverage buildup will amplify volatility. The cost-performance of chasing highs is not favorable; wait for a pullback to stabilize around 66500 to 67000 before considering further moves. $BTC $ETH #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Looking at the three platform tokens BNB, OKB, and HYPE together, they no longer follow the same playstyle.
$BNB is the most stable. After all, Binance is the world's largest exchange, and the entire ecosystem of BNB Chain and DeFi supports it. Its biggest advantage is that it has already established itself, but the downside is obvious: the market cap is large, so it's not easy to replicate the explosive growth it had before.
$OKB is what I've been paying more attention to recently. Last year, they directly cut the supply to 21 million tokens, permanently fixed. X Layer has started to increase gas and staking demand for OKB. The small market cap is its biggest advantage, but the problem lies in whether X Layer and Exchange OS can truly build the ecosystem. That remains to be seen.
$HYPE is the one I find most interesting.
HYPE didn't launch the token first and then tell the story; the product and trading volume have already taken off, and protocol revenue can continuously buy back HYPE. Recently, with the U.S. compliance line, the market price jumped directly from around 62 to over 70.
So here’s how I see these three:
BNB: highest certainty.
OKB: most aggressive supply, highly flexible.
HYPE: product and revenue are the most promising, with the greatest potential.
I currently hold a bit of all three.
If you want stability, look at BNB; if you want to bet on platform tokens being revalued, look at OKB; if you want to find the next phase of explosive growth, look at HYPE.
Especially HYPE, which has real trading volume, real revenue, and can continuously buy back tokens.The Federal Reserve is starting to "argue" internally, and the market's real concern is not about rate hikes, but uncertainty.
The July FOMC meeting minutes released an important signal: divisions within the Federal Reserve are widening.
Although the final vote was 9 to 3 to maintain rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range, officials Logan, Harker, and Kashkari clearly supported a 25 basis point hike, believing inflationary pressures have not fully subsided.
The problem is, the market is looking at "past meetings" but trading on "future data."
July CPI continued to cool, and weakening employment data have clearly reduced the rationale for an immediate rate hike in September. Currently, the market is more focused on whether the Federal Reserve will be forced back onto a hawkish path by inflation.
For the crypto market, the focus is not on a single rate hike, but on liquidity expectations.
If inflation continues to decline in the future and the Federal Reserve signals a dovish shift, the dollar will weaken, risk appetite will rise, and BTC and high-valuation assets may see a new round of capital inflows.
However, if AI infrastructure investment overheats, U.S. stock valuation risks expand, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, the market may reprice risk.
The biggest variable in the market now is not "whether there will be a rate hike in September," but whether the Federal Reserve can still control market expectations for future policy.
Next, pay attention to two data points:
① Whether U.S. inflation continues to decline
② Whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to rise
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC $ETH $SOL 연방준비제도 의사록 공개가 자산시장의 짧은 변동성을 결정할 분기점이 될 수 있다. 시장이 이미 반영한 금리 경로와, 아직 반영되지 않은 내부 불일치의 정도는 어디까지인가? 연준 의사록은 오전 2시(베트남 시간) 공개 예정이며, 핵심은 금리 결정 자체가 아니라 위원들 간의 이견 수준이다. 시장은 이미 연내 1~2회 인하 가능성을 상당 부분 가격에 반영해 두었다. 따라서 이번 의사록에서 주목할 변수는 인하 시점의 앞당김 여부보다, 위원들 사이의 정책 방향을 둘러싼 불일치가 얼마나 표면화되는가다. 이 불일치의 강도에 따라 달러 유동성 기대가 재편되고, 이는 금, 원유, 비트코인에 서로 다른 속도로 전달된다. - 비둘기파 신호가 강화될 경우: 달러 약세 압력이 커지고, 금은 안전자산 수요와 통화 가치 하락 헤지 수요를 동시에 받는다. 원유는 성장 기대 개선으로 수요 전망이 일부 지지되고, 비트코인은 달러 유동성 완화 기대를 추종하는 대표적 위험자산으로서 반등 동력을 얻을 수 있다. 다만 이ETH 8月20日22:59实时盘面数据分析
现价2273美元，24小时涨幅约17.1%，本轮拉升强度明显跑赢BTC，短期进入严重超买区间，4小时RSI已经触及高位阈值。
关键价位：第一支撑2200，强支撑2100；短期压力2335（日内高点），有效突破后上方目标看向2420‑2500区间。
合约层面：过去24小时空头爆仓规模十分惊人，大规模空单连环平仓是本轮暴涨最直接推手；全网未平仓快速抬升，杠杆水位急剧走高，高位博弈烈度大幅提升，随时可能出现巨幅震荡。
资金层面：ETH现货ETF近期迎来久违大额单日净流入，机构资金态度出现明显回暖，但币价上涨幅度远超资金流入速度，行情主要由衍生品轧空驱动，后续需要持续资金接力，上涨空间才能进一步打开。
整体来看，多头短期动能极强，但超买状态下回调风险同步放大，高位追进性价比很低。
以上仅行情复盘，不构成投资建议$BTC $ETH $SOL BTC real-time market data analysis as of August 20, 22:58
Current price is $71,534, with a 24-hour increase of about 9.2%. The day has seen a violent short squeeze, and the short-term has clearly entered an overbought zone.
Key levels: First support at 69,000, strong support at 67,200; short-term resistance at 72,486 (intraday high). After breaking through, the target above is in the 74,000-75,000 range.
Contract aspect: In the past 24 hours, the scale of short position liquidations far exceeded that of long positions. A large number of crowded shorts were forcibly closed, fueling this round of rally; the overall network long-short ratio is basically balanced, but the divergence between longs and shorts is rapidly expanding, intensifying the battle for new high-level chips.
Capital aspect: BTC spot ETFs recorded a recent large net inflow yesterday, with institutional buying providing underlying support. However, the most direct driving force for this rally remains short covering in the derivatives market. Continuous incremental capital inflow is needed to sustain the momentum further.
Overall, although short-term bullish momentum is strong, the overbought condition may lead to a sharp correction at any time, significantly increasing the risk of chasing highs.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice $BTC There’s still room for a push into the 78K - 80K area - a major confluence of VWAPs I've been watching for a long time.
That's where I'd expect the first meaningful rejection and another period of consolidation.
But yesterday's pump is important: it has increased my conviction that we're in the process of forming the bottom.
The structure is starting to look increasingly constructive.Unrealized gains have expanded, but Hormuz is causing trouble again—can we still hold the long positions?
Brothers, first about the account: BTC long positions were held from 62.6k to 71.7k, unrealized profit +2,003 (ROI +155%). This wave has indeed been quite profitable, but just as I was about to strategize, some trouble popped up again in the Middle East.
Iran has issued three warnings in three days. If the Strait of Hormuz really gets "choked," oil prices will soar first, and risk assets will flee first. BTC just stabilized above 71k, and incremental funds were eager to jump in, but now they probably have to hesitate again. The strong resistance above is at 73k; if geopolitical tensions escalate, safe-haven funds might withdraw first, and BTC could retest 69k or even 68k. But on the other hand, if US-Iran confrontation escalates, BTC’s "digital gold" narrative might be revived, leading to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, making the direction unclear.
ETH is worse off, still stuck around 1,900. BTC can’t carry it, and with geopolitical risk rising, the catch-up rally window will likely close directly, delaying the altcoin season logic again.
My plan:
· Move BTC long stop-loss up to 69.5k, target 73k; hold if it doesn’t break the level.
· Move DOGE trailing stop to 0.075, partially take profits above 0.082, let the rest run.
· No new positions for now; wait for signals from oil prices and the VIX index.
Watching the candlesticks now is not very meaningful; better to watch oil prices and the fear index. Cash and gold have short-term advantages, but my longs have unrealized gains as a cushion, so I can still hold on.
What about you? Under this kind of geopolitical disturbance, do you continue strategizing or take profits first? Let’s discuss in the comments $BTC $DOGE
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ Analysis of $ETH's explosive surge on Binance, I've already lost my mind
1. White House Crypto Summit, Trump releases major positive news
- Publicly urges Congress to pass the CLARITY Digital Asset Clarity Act, classifying crypto assets as commodities/securities, ending long-term regulatory ambiguity
2. SEC regulatory warm breeze: launches safe harbor rules exempting token financing from registration, reducing project compliance pressure, easing institutional panic
II. Macro liquidity flood, risk assets broadly rise
The U.S. Treasury's long-term bond repurchase scale doubles, injecting liquidity into the market, U.S. bond yields decline, and the dollar weakens.
Funds flow out of the bond market into high-risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, lifting the overall market.
III. The key reason Ethereum is rising faster than Bitcoin: spot liquidity drying up + epic short squeeze (blowing out shorts)
1. Exchange ETH inventories are at historic lows
Large amounts of Ethereum are locked in staking, restaking, and layer-2 networks (Arbitrum/Optimism), reducing spot available for immediate sale. When buying pressure hits, order book depth is shallow, making prices easily surge.
2. Short squeeze liquidation spiral
Many traders previously opened short positions betting on a decline; once positive news hits, prices rapidly rise, forcing shorts to buy ETH to cover losses.
Massive covering orders push prices higher, causing more liquidations, creating positive feedback, directly triggering a 20% big green candle, with over $2 billion in shorts liquidated within 24 hours BTC broke through 72000, can this round of rise continue?
My view: it can continue, but now it has already moved from the "rebound confirmation" phase into the "secondary confirmation phase after the breakout."
The quality of this rise is better than a simple technical rebound. BTC once broke through $72000 today, hitting a new high since early June; meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $517 million yesterday, the largest single-day inflow since early May, with nearly $1 billion accumulated over the past three trading days. 
So this should not be seen merely as a short squeeze.
Currently, three bullish factors are resonating:
① ETF funds are coming back
This is the most important change at present.
Previously, the biggest problem for BTC was the lack of incremental funds during price rebounds. Now, with continuous net inflows in ETFs, it indicates institutional buying is reappearing. 
If continuous inflows can be maintained, this market could gradually shift from a short squeeze rebound to a trend recovery driven by spot funds.
② Short-term decline in US Treasury yields
After the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchase operations, long-term yields briefly fell, providing liquidity relief for risk assets. BTC quickly broke through $70,000 as a result. 
But we must not be complacent—30-year Treasury yields soon returned to about 5.24%, indicating that long-term interest rate pressure has not truly disappeared. 
③ The 72000 breakthrough itself has technical significance
Previously, around 72000 was an important resistance level. If after the breakout it can achieve:
72000 breakthrough → pullback without breaking → volume expansion and renewed upward attack
then this level could turn from resistance into a new support.
So what’s next?
I will divide it into three stages.
First target: $75000
This is the next obvious psychological resistance.
If BTC can hold above 72000, 75000 will become the most direct short-term target for bulls.
Second target: $78000–$80000
If 75000 is also broken with volume, the nature of the market will clearly upgrade.
At this point, the market will start to trade "trend reversal" again instead of just a "rebound."
Third target: $85000–$90000
This target cannot be called out directly yet.
We must see:
Continuous ETF net inflows + increased spot trading volume + 72000 becoming support + US Treasury yields no longer rising continuously
Only when these conditions appear simultaneously can we further look toward 85000 or even 90000.
But the biggest risk here is also very obvious.
This rise has been very fast.
Starting from about $63,000 early this week, BTC has risen more than 15% in a short time. 
Moreover, this rise was accompanied by large-scale short liquidations; reports say crypto market short liquidations exceeded $3 billion, with BTC short liquidations about $1.77 billion. 
So the biggest fear now is:
Price continues to rise, but ETF funds start to reverse.
That would mean the subsequent rise increasingly depends on leverage and chasing buying, rather than spot funds.
In this case, the 72000 breakthrough could easily become a false breakout.
What I’m most focused on now is not "how much more it can rise"
but this structure below:
Strong:
Holding above 72000 → pullback to 70000–72000 without breaking → continued ETF inflows → renewed volume expansion
This is a relatively healthy trend continuation.
Weak:
Failing to break 75000 → quickly falling back below 72000 → significant decline in ETF inflows
Then we must guard against returning to the 68000–70000 range for consolidation.
So my judgment:
Short term: slightly bullish.
Medium term: starting to strengthen but still needs confirmation.
Key support: 70000–72000.
First target: 75000.
After breaking 75000: 78000–80000.
Strong trend market: then look at 85000–90000.
In a word:
The 72000 breakthrough itself is bullish, but what really determines whether this rise can go far is not how much it breaks through, but whether funds are willing to keep buying at high levels after the breakout.
The most positive signal currently is the strong inflow of ETFs again. If this pace continues over the next week, I will significantly raise my judgment on the continuation of this market; if ETFs turn to sustained outflows again, then this rise must be redefined as a rapid recovery driven by short covering.
So now it’s not advisable to blindly chase highs just because of the 72000 breakthrough; the truly comfortable position is to see if 72000 can turn from resistance into support. $BTC #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ The UAE officially announced a complete suspension of all commercial and financial cooperation with Iran, directly cutting off Iran's crucial regional trade and capital transit channels. For a long time, the UAE has been a core trade partner of Iran, with Dubai serving as a key transit hub for Iran's connection to the global market. This ban significantly impacts Iran's economy.
First, foreign exchange circulation channels are severely obstructed. Previously, Dubai handled Iran's cross-border settlements and import financing, serving as the core channel for Iran to bypass sanctions and obtain foreign currency. After the suspension of financial interactions, Iranian companies face greatly increased difficulty in exchanging foreign currency and purchasing overseas equipment and goods.
Second, the overall cost of imports rises. Iran relies heavily on overseas imports for producing machinery, electronics, and consumer goods. Losing the UAE transit route means switching to longer logistics routes, which increases transportation expenses and trade fulfillment risks simultaneously.
Third, the suppressive effect of overseas sanctions is further amplified. The US has been trying to block Iran's overseas financial channels that circumvent sanctions. The UAE's current action aligns perfectly with the US blockade strategy, continuously shrinking Iran's external economic survival space.
Geopolitical negatives will continue to support crude oil prices, and rising energy inflation will indirectly suppress US stocks and crypto asset valuations. Ongoing monitoring of Gulf trade flow changes is necessary. $BTC $ETH $SNDK U.S. Stocks End Altcoins: The Endgame and New Order for Crypto Traders
1. Exchanges like Binance and OKX launching U.S. stock perpetual contracts (such as SNDK, Microsoft, Tesla) represent the perfect fusion of the world's most efficient trading tools (24/7 availability, high leverage, seamless clearing) and the highest quality real-world assets (U.S. stocks). When traders can directly speculate on U.S. stocks on crypto exchanges, altcoins lose their sole value as "speculative targets."
2. Inevitable zeroing out, zero fair value: Code and nodes have no technical barriers. Public chain tokens and altcoin air tokens have neither real profits nor balance sheet asset backing; essentially, they are just unrestrained chips in a game of speculation. History has already proven this (e.g., Luna's instant 99% crash, FTX collapse). Tokens without real performance and regulatory compliance are ultimately castles in the air.
3. Giants like Microsoft, Meta, Tesla have real moats, AI technology implementation, GAAP financial reports, and SEC regulatory protection. They have clear fair value and perfect narratives, making it impossible for them to go to zero overnight.
The ultimate landscape for the next three years
* Bitcoin (BTC): The only exception, existing independently due to its status as digital gold and a non-sovereign safe-haven asset.
* All other crypto tokens: Having lost their parasitic soil as the "only speculative objects on exchanges," their liquidity will be completely drained by high-quality U.S. stock derivatives and will face comprehensive exhaustion and zeroing within three years.
U.S. stock perpetual contracts are the ultimate destination for all crypto traders. 昨天到今天，以太坊（ETH）这波干净利落的强势拉升，确实把盘面的交投情绪彻底点燃了。盘中不仅一度冲破 2300 美元大关、高点逼近 2335 美元，在弹性和爆发力上更是把大饼（BTC）甩在了身后。 在这根大阳线背后，最引人瞩目的是那超过 11 亿美元的链上空头清算，以及多空交织的盘面博弈。我们可以从以下几个维度来深挖这波行情的底层逻辑与潜在隐忧：在加密衍生品市场里，最猛烈的涨势往往不是因为主动买盘有多雄厚，而是空头被逼到墙角后的“自相残杀”。 史诗级的清算规模：过去 24 小时链上 ETH 空头清算总额突破 11 亿美元，这种量级的爆仓潮在近期的窄幅震荡市中极为罕见。 巨鲸惨遭强平：单次爆仓金额高达约 1.0815 亿美元。这种高杠杆重仓押注方向错误后，瞬间触发的被动市价买入，像滚雪球一样把价格硬生生推向高空。 机构的真实动作：ETF 连续净流入提供底气 如果说衍生品市场的空头爆仓决定了拉升的“速度”，那么现货和 ETF 资金则在很大程度上决定了这波反弹的“厚度”。 连续净流入的信号：美东时间 8 月 19 日，以太坊现货 ETF 总净流入达到约 1.89 亿美元，这已经是连续第 3 $SOL 87.20, +13%, a three-month high. First time reclaiming the 200-day MA, Meme coins surged across the board with $BOME +46.5%, $TRUMP +19%. Short positions liquidated about $100 million, ETF daily inflow $2.1 million.
1. Alpenglow is the real catalyst. This upgrade reduces final confirmation time from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, an 85x speed increase. Mainnet launch in Q3. If implemented, SOL's competitiveness in payment and RWA sectors will be fully enhanced. Slot time has already dropped from 400ms to 350ms, with a long-term target of 200ms.
2. Bitwise is still pushing Solana staking ETF tokenization, done through Superstate. Institutional products are accelerating rollout. But RSI is already signaling overbought, so a short-term pullback below $88 is quite possible.
3. The key is whether the $88 mid-range can turn into support. If it holds and pushes above the $98 upper range, there's an additional 16% upside. But if it falls below $76, the gains will be wiped out.
So overall, SOL's fundamentals are improving, and Alpenglow is the real deal, not just a PPT. However, after a +13% jump, chasing higher carries significant risk; better to wait for a pullback to $83-$85 for confirmation before proceeding. BlackRock BUIDL Frenziedly Penetrates DeFi Infrastructure: When All Collateral Turns into U.S. Treasuries, How Much Decentralization Remains?
The world's largest asset management giant, BlackRock, is silently reconstructing the entire DeFi foundational framework at a pace that sends chills down the spines of all crypto purists.
Its tokenized U.S. Treasury fund BUIDL, while continuously hitting new all-time highs in assets under management, is being wildly integrated by top-tier DeFi lending protocols and stablecoin systems. From Ethena incorporating it as a core reserve asset for synthetic dollars, to MakerDAO and Aave racing to set it as a top-yielding collateral, the entire on-chain world is undergoing a sweeping overhaul of RWA collateral.
On the surface, this appears to be a triumphant convergence of traditional trillion-dollar financial capital embracing on-chain finance, where DeFi protocols can finally earn around 5% real fiat risk-free returns effortlessly.
But if you truly see through the power struggle controlling the financial system, you'll find that behind this seemingly prosperous union lies the most fatal institutional co-optation of decentralization.
In the past, DeFi was called permissionless finance mainly because its underlying collateral consisted of crypto-native assets like Ethereum and Bitcoin that cannot be remotely frozen by any centralized entity. No matter how turbulent the outside world, smart contracts could still ruthlessly and automatically liquidate under mathematical rules.
But once tokenized U.S. Treasuries like BUIDL become indispensable core collateral for protocols, the entire game changes:
First, the sovereign censorship backdoor is fully opened.
BUIDL is backed by real U.S. short-term Treasuries, and every on-chain token transfer, liquidation, and redemption must embed extremely strict whitelists and accredited investor KYC in the underlying smart contracts. This means BlackRock and U.S. regulators inherently hold ultimate interpretive authority and superpowers to freeze assets with one click in the code. If geopolitical tensions or regulatory red lines arise, any DeFi protocol integrated with BUIDL will instantly lose its so-called censorship resistance.
Second, native on-chain liquidity is passively squeezed out.
When institutions and whales realize they can safely earn 5% risk-free Treasury interest by putting funds into tokenized U.S. Treasuries, who would want to lend to volatile, high-risk native DeFi lending pools? This leads to crypto-native lending yields being suppressed at low levels for a long time, native asset liquidity continuously bleeding out, and the entire on-chain financial pricing anchor forcibly dragged back to the Fed's interest rate track.
Capital always chases profit; Wall Street never does charity without returns. By using RWA to funnel cheap Treasury assets on-chain, they not only earn stable management fees but also seize the lifeline of the next-generation global clearing network.
Facing this irreversible institutional co-optation, my own asset defense strategy is very clear:
Enjoy the interest convenience brought by RWA, but never bet your entire net worth on collateral highly dependent on a single regulated entity. In the storms of bull and bear cycles, holding truly decentralized, backdoor-free native hard assets is your last air defense hole on the balance sheet.
BlackRock BUIDL's massive takeover of DeFi collateral—do you think this is a necessary path for on-chain finance to mature, or a complete compromise of decentralization spirit? When allocating interest-bearing assets, do you prioritize stable 5% returns or the permissionless security baseline?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 4. Sanliu Ling (601360)
360's large model focuses on the integration of network security and AI, launching AI security detection tools to serve government and enterprise network security businesses. The security business provides stable cash flow to support large model R&D. The C-end AI tool market is less competitive, making it difficult to capture leading market share. The vertical security track forms a differentiated route, avoiding the red ocean of general large models. Competition in government and enterprise security project bidding is fierce, and order acquisition is uncertain. The company's AI business growth relies on existing security customer resources, with a steady expansion pace. 4. Sanliu Ling (601360)
360's large model focuses on the integration of network security and AI, launching AI security detection tools to serve government and enterprise network security businesses. The security business provides stable cash flow to support large model R&D. The C-end AI tool market is less competitive, making it difficult to capture leading market share. The vertical security track forms a differentiated route, avoiding the red ocean of general large models. Competition in government and enterprise security project bidding is fierce, and order acquisition is uncertain. The company's AI business growth relies on existing security customer resources, with a steady expansion pace. 2. iFLYTEK (002230)
The Spark vertical large model deeply cultivates the education, government, and medical sectors, implementing numerous customized projects. AI learning hardware maintains stable sales, with hardware business supporting algorithm research and development. Government and enterprise procurement orders are the core revenue source. General large model giants continuously penetrate vertical markets, intensifying market competition. The delivery cost of customized projects is relatively high, with limited profit per project. The company avoids the general large model price war and focuses on industry-specific scenarios. The speed of performance release depends on local digital procurement budgets, with growth being relatively steady. $SPCX Practical Strategy:
1. The biggest variable for SPCX right now is not technical indicators, but the chip pressure caused by unlocking.
2. On August 20, another batch of SpaceX shares will enter the tradable phase. The market has already shown significant fluctuations, with yesterday's closing price around $139.65.
3. Therefore, if you see a sudden drop now, it doesn't necessarily mean the fundamentals have collapsed; it is very likely a short-term supply shock caused by unlocking chips.
4. Around 140 is an important short-term psychological level. Only if it can firmly hold above 140 with increased volume is it more suitable to expect a rebound.
5. If it continues to break below 140 and the trading volume significantly increases, do not catch the falling knife.
The most important thing for SPCX now is not to guess the rise or fall, but to wait for the unlocking pressure to be released. The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates, but the suspense for September is even greater
The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at the July meeting, but what’s truly noteworthy is that 3 of the 12 voting members supported an immediate 25 basis point hike.
This indicates that concerns about inflation are heating up within the Fed.
On one hand, July’s inflation data cooled down and there are signs of weakening employment; on the other hand, inflation is still far from the 2% target. The Fed now faces a dilemma: continuing to tighten could hurt the economy; easing too soon risks inflation picking up again.
So the focus in September is not just about whether to raise rates.
Upcoming PCE and August CPI data may directly determine the direction of policy expectations. If inflation continues to fall, the pressure from high rates could ease; but if the data fluctuates, the 3 dissenting votes in July might just be the start of a tougher policy.
Personally, I think what we really need to watch out for next is the market re-pricing "high rates staying longer."
High-valuation AI stocks, long-term U.S. Treasuries, and highly volatile assets like $BTC could all be affected.
September may not necessarily see a rate hike, but the Fed’s direction is no longer as straightforward as before.
Real changes often don’t start when the rate decision is announced, but when the market moves ahead of it
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 SPCX fell nearly 5% in the evening session on August 20, dropping below the $135 issue price to the $132–134 range.
Three key points:
1. The second wave of restricted shares unlocking hits the market, supply shock directly crashes the price
August 20 marks the expiration of the second lock-up period after listing, about 319 million shares held by insiders/early investors become tradable (about 7% of total shares, more than three times the daily average trading volume). Investors fear insiders rushing to cash out, so they sell early to hedge, which is the most direct downward pressure tonight.
2. Valuation bubble theory reignited, shorts amplify sentiment
Last week, New York University’s Scott Galloway claimed "SpaceX is only worth $10–30," a former Fidelity manager agreed with a "$30 target," and GMO said there is a 90% chance of a 50% drop within the year. These voices were re-amplified by financial media on the eve of the unlocking—market recalculates: at IPO, the float was only 4–5% plus Nasdaq 100 passive funds supporting the $225 peak; now with the denominator loosening and the story cooling, the nearly $1.8 trillion valuation doesn’t hold up.
3. Earnings report "revenue growth without profit" + AI cash burn, falling interest rates instead expose weaknesses
Q2 revenue rose 92% year-over-year but net loss was $541 million; Capex was $18.37 billion (6.5 times YoY), with $15.8 billion spent on AI computing power. The decline in long-term US Treasury yields should have benefited long-duration tech stocks, but the market is instead focusing more on real cash flow. $BTC pulled up 30 points, and the whales drove the car away.
I glanced at the on-chain data and understood who is making money this time.
Santiment's data shows that in the past 60 days, Bitcoin whales (holding over 1,000 coins) have cumulatively increased their holdings by about $2.75 billion. Moreover, these increases happened in the 62,000 to 66,000 range. It's not chasing the rally; it's anticipating it.
On August 2nd, there was an interesting detail: an address dormant for 9 years moved out 1,000 BTC. The price 9 years ago was $230. You really don't think this is a retail investor, do you?
The holding volume also confirms this. In July, whales held 71.2%, now it's 72.4%. Don't underestimate this 1.2%; converted to BTC quantity, it's close to hundreds of thousands of coins. Clearly, this is a move to position ahead.
And these guys operate very uniformly: they don't chase highs, they only accumulate. BTC hovered between 62,000 and 66,000 for a few days, and during those days they slowly accumulated. When the price was pushed to 72,000, they were already in the car; retail investors were chasing, they were watching.
Trey from ZZ Capital also mentioned a data point: the sell volume of long-term holders has dropped to a few thousand BTC per day, shrinking 80% from the tens of thousands at the beginning of the year. Fewer people are selling, more are slowly accumulating, supply narrows, demand doesn't decrease, so the price naturally pushes up.
What I’m most concerned about now is—when retail investors realize that the 72,000 level might be the breakout point, what will the whales do?
Continue to add positions, or slowly sell off? The answer is not in the candlestick charts, but on-chain. Watch those addresses holding over 1,000 coins; when they move, the trend truly moves.