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Managing a $2.7 billion fund, and the largest holding is actually a DEX token
A partner at Multicoin Capital told Bloomberg yesterday that HYPE is the biggest holding in their hedge fund, and it was bought on the open market, not cheap private placement tokens.
What’s odd is the timing: peers Paradigm and Framework are increasing their bets on AI and robotics, but Multicoin says they won’t touch pure AI.
Moreover, their June research report gave HYPE a base valuation of $319 by 2028.
I think this is the institution’s clear play: now at $79, still 19% below the September high of $98, basically telling you "I’m looking far ahead, not chasing this small short-term gain."
But he absolutely refuses to say how much they actually bought.
If it falls below $70, I think this play changes flavor and needs to be reassessed.
Others chase AI, he’s all in on DEX — which side are you on?
$HYPE Three AI-Related Tokens, Three Completely Different Business Models Don’t lump $WLD , $NEAR , and $TAO together just because they’re associated with AI. Each project targets a different problem, and each needs to be evaluated using different criteria. 🔹 $WLD — Digital Identity and Proof of Humanity World ID aims to verify that a user is a real, unique person, with additional capabilities for proving certain attributes or presence. The core value proposition is trusted identity, particularly foThe overall market data is still very interesting; the money hasn't left, it just changed posture and came back in. BTC spot ETFs saw a net withdrawal of 907 million in two weeks, ETH had a single-month withdrawal of 955 million in October, the worst this year, showing institutions are exiting on paper; but BlackRock countered by filing a new BTC ETF with downside protection—options to reinforce income, cushioning the downside and capping the upside, so those retreating and those lining up are the same group 📊
BTC hovered around 81,800 this morning, down just over 1%, the 81,000 barrier hasn't broken yet; ETH is holding below 2,400, hit hardest among the top three by the 955 million withdrawal; SOL is consolidating around 105 without movement, and the heart swap is scheduled around 9 PM Beijing time tomorrow night—I just verified this news hasn't been delayed, so it needs attention.
There are two more layers of news: September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, exceeding the expected 3.6%, and rate hikes are back in discussion, so risk assets are cautious first; on the other hand, Warsh avoids talking about rate hikes, with the FOMC meeting in 8 days, macro is oscillating between scaring and reassuring you—the money withdrawing fears rate hikes, the money applying bets on volatility 😏
My judgment is not to chase shorts at this position. If the heart swap tomorrow night lands smoothly, SOL's volatility premium will be smoothed out; if the FOMC turns hawkish, the 81,000 barrier will likely be tested again; ETH, despite the deepest pit, is actually closest to the surface, if a rebound from oversold conditions comes, it will have the greatest elasticity, I'm watching if it can reclaim 2,400.
The conditions are set: a smooth upgrade plus no hawkish macro means bulls have a chance to eat; if anything slips, the retreat orders in the shorts' hands become ready fuel 💥今天市场一片“复苏”的欢呼，但一个被忽略的细节是：SanDisk前几天财报后暴跌，今天却突然领涨——这不是趋势反转，而是情绪修复的典型剧本。$BTC 同步跟涨，同样没有突发利好，只是外部风险偏好回暖带动的技术性回补。把这两件事放在一起看，结论很清晰：坏消息已经出尽并被定价，好消息正被分批兑现，市场处在“跌不动、涨不快”的蓄势阶段，而非新趋势的起点。 先拆SanDisk。财报引发的抛售属于恐慌性超调，估值被过度压缩。今天反弹有三个支点：AI存储需求的基本面没有改变，长期合同订单继续托底；连续下跌后空头集中平仓，触发技术性回补；超跌后的估值修正。但必须记住：业绩指引疲软的问题并未消失，上方压力依然沉重，冲高后分化会非常明显。这是修复，不是主升浪。 再看$BTC。今天的上涨跟随的是外部情绪，不是链上或消息面的突变。巨鲸在低位持续吸筹，守住了底部区间；外部风险偏好回升，带动市场修复；做空动能衰竭，空头不再继续施压。价格结构呈现的是重心不断上移的震荡上行，而不是单边拉升。没有新增资金推动，就谈不上单边行情，当前只是标准的蓄势整理。$ETH 和 $SOL 的节奏大概率同步，跟随风险偏好的边际变化，Last night $SNDK finally bounced back a bit, but as soon as the Korean stock market opened today, it got doused with cold water again 😂
KOSPI plunged, and semiconductor heavyweights like Hynix also took a hit. SNDK's contracts fell steadily from above 1400 last night.
My long position eventually broke even and was closed; honestly, it's a bit of a pity 😮💨
My judgment on the Changxin matter hasn't really changed. The intensified competition in the DRAM sector is not enough to directly conclude that SanDisk's NAND business moat is collapsing.
But the market is clearly still digesting the valuation pressure on the entire AI and storage sectors. Once risk appetite shrinks, fundamental differences tend to be overlooked in the short term.
This is also the frustrating part of trading:
Logic can be slowly verified, but positions can't wait indefinitely with the market.
I originally wanted to ride the emotional recovery after a period of panic, but since the rebound didn't continue, I'll just withdraw for now.
I’ll keep my views on hold and continue to observe the capital flow in the storage sector.
There should still be opportunities; no need to rush to fight the market.
#芯片股终结八连跌，AI行情能否持续？ $MORPHO's lending data is really solid. Coinbase users use BTC as collateral to borrow U, and Morpho is running behind the scenes. The amount lent out has hit a new high, about 1.6 billion U, with about 90% of the pool's funds borrowed. Yesterday, Frgmnt also said they would allocate funds to Morpho's pool, with custody handled by Anchorage. The data is gradually improving, and the price is slowly rising accordingly.
However, the overall market is a bit sluggish now. Many coins with actual positive fundamentals aren't gaining traction, while those relying on contract data are pumping wildly, trapping many people. Now, we can only wait for a suitable entry point. If this data trend continues, I think holding for the medium to long term wouldn't be a problem.Goldman’s upgrade is notable precisely because its target fell from $139 to $106: the call recognizes upside, but at a lower valuation ceiling. The shares’ 0.44% decline after a 7% intraday rise suggests investors remain focused on financing, not ratings. Long-term compute contracts may help, yet their economics and timing remain the unresolved test.
#CoreWeaveRatingUpgrade #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
After SPCX surged to a high point in August, it has been steadily declining and is now consolidating with low volume around 148, as if waiting for a verdict. The earnings numbers have actually been fully uncovered long ago—revenue is expected to be around 12.9 billion, EPS roughly between 0.14 and 0.19, and the market has even prematurely popped champagne for the "first profitable quarter." But last time, Q2 revenue beat expectations by 15%, yet the stock price dropped 9% because capital expenditures surged to 18.4 billion, and the market fears it is burning cash to chase growth.
This time, it's very likely the same script. Starlink user growth is indeed strong, with a net increase of 1.7 million in a single quarter, but ARPU remains steady at $66, with growth in volume but not in price. What really makes people hesitant to go all in are two hidden risks: 1.3 billion shares will be unlocked on October 22, followed by another 329 million shares hitting the market on the 24th; the 15th Starship flight is reportedly going to attempt the "chopsticks grab" maneuver for the first time, which would be a milestone, but a failure would be an emotional bombshell. Morgan Stanley says the earnings report is just the "appetizer," and whether you eat the appetizer or not doesn’t matter; until the main course is served steadily, the table could be flipped at any time.
So this is not the place to bet on the earnings report. The options market prices post-earnings volatility close to 7.5%, with 162 on the upside and 139 on the downside, the odds are not favorable. Better to wait for two things to happen—either the 15th Starship flight delivers a clear signal of reusability, or the lock-up expiration dumps a significant hole. The 148 level looks like it’s being supported by institutions, but support and rallying are two different things; low-volume sideways consolidation is the most frustrating, don’t stand guard for others halfway up the mountain. $SPCX $SNDK SNDK SanDisk Plunge Lesson! No matter how good the fundamentals are, they can't withstand a sector-wide sell-off
The big logic in the storage sector still holds, but the market won't keep rising unilaterally. This round of SNDK's sharp drop taught me a harsh lesson.
At first, I was optimistic about NAND flash price increases and enterprise SSD revenue doubling, believing the storage cycle was warming up, so I positioned long early, ignoring the systemic correction risk in the broader market and semiconductor sector. The price dropped all the way from the high of 1900, with all moving averages in a bearish alignment, MA5, MA10, and MA20 suppressing layer by layer. Every small rebound failed to break above the short-term moving averages, a typical downtrend.
The biggest lesson this time: no matter how good the fundamentals are, they can't resist a sector-wide valuation sell-off. Storage chips are strongly cyclical products; when sentiment fades, fundamental positives are completely ineffective in the short term.
Position management is paramount. Before the trend confirms a reversal, only small positions should be used to test rebounds, with strict stop-losses in place. The SuperTrend indicator is still above at 1500.4, so the major trend remains bearish. Most rebounds are more like corrective moves, not to be mistaken for a new major uptrend.
Future outlook: If the rebound lacks strength and falls under pressure, the trend-following approach still dominates. When trading storage stocks, you must not only watch your own company's earnings but also closely monitor the SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Micron, and SK Hynix's correlated movements. Sector sentiment is the core determinant of short-term price changes.
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the patience to control your impulses. In a downtrend, surviving is more important than bottom-fishing to catch the absolute lowest point. Analyst: Bitcoin rally may revive crypto treasury company buying, but indiscriminate financing boom unlikely to reoccur
Corporate Bitcoin purchases generally slowed in Q3. Strategy increased holdings by a net 1,666 BTC, down from 83,901 BTC in Q2; other publicly listed companies increased by a net 5,617 BTC, down from 45,725 BTC the previous quarter. He expects corporate buying to accelerate again as early as this year. If Bitcoin's rise drives treasury companies to regain a valuation premium relative to their Bitcoin holdings, companies can continue buying Bitcoin by issuing more shares without diluting existing shareholders' per-share Bitcoin exposure. However, investors are now more focused on financing costs, balance sheet discipline, and Bitcoin per share, so funds may prioritize companies with more mature scale, liquidity, and operating history. The indiscriminate financing environment of last year is unlikely to return. Rasmussen also noted that 12 companies that entered the treasury boom in 2025 have cleared their holdings, mainly to repay debt or return cash to shareholders. However, corporate Bitcoin buying is not the only source of demand; spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $6.4 billion in Q3. Kooner cautioned that some ETF activity involves basis trades that may be quickly unwound; data shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of about $229 million last week#ETH现货ETF连续三周净流入 $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC 持仓日报54%看涨、31%中立、15%看跌，多头占优。 热点上，某策略2210万刀加仓267枚BTC，总持84.8万枚，同时回购1.93亿STRC优先股，授权扩至30亿。 贝莱德申请PBIT，给IBIT上涨敞口加下行保护。萨尔瓦多储备破7800枚，IMF贷款后增1700枚。德国Sparkassen银行网络推BTC、$ETH 、XRP、$SOL 交易，月增30-40家银行。 机构与国家队齐进，主流采用加速。中线看，基本面支撑强，但需盯宏观与监管，我偏谨慎乐观。【The higher UNITREE rises, the more the shorts resist: How many stop losses will this wave force out?】
$UNITREE has risen about 30% in two days, yet the funding rate keeps dropping deeper into negative territory. The Hyperliquid hourly reference rate has reached -0.119%, meaning shorts have to pay longs. The price is going up, but the market is still betting on a decline; this divergence can easily turn into short squeeze fuel.
Don't mistake the increase in position value as new money entering: the current nominal OI value has increased, but the number of contracts has slightly decreased; part of the increase is just due to the price rising. Also, large long holders are still trapped around $90; this rally hasn't yet allowed those who bought at high levels to fully exit.
On October 22, UNITREE will hold a physical AI ecosystem conference, and policies are also promoting embodied intelligence. But the expectation that the conference will spark a rally doesn't mean earnings will be realized immediately; the company's net profit excluding non-recurring items declined year-on-year in the first half, reminding people not to focus solely on the robot story.
I tend to see this as a high-volatility market driven by crowded shorts and event catalysts, not a confirmed trend reversal. If after the conference the price can hold steady, negative funding rates narrow, and open interest rises again, it would more likely indicate new capital stepping in; otherwise, the short squeeze could end and the price might fall quickly.The rebound to 83000 then pulled back, the problem is not the rebound itself
$BTC touched above 83000 yesterday, then retreated.
What is this price level: 84358 is the average cost for ETF holders.
Once the rebound enters this range, the sell orders to break even come out.
Who is placing orders here: it's not new money buying, it's old money exiting.
Before holding above 85000, rebounds are just returning to the cost zone.
$ETH is still over a hundred dollars away from the 20-day moving average, RSI is only 29.
Oversold does not mean reversal; weak coins fall first before recovery can be discussed.
$ZEC today set the upgrade height, not a switch.
Block time changes from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, 60% of fees go into the reserve pool and then to miners.
Setting the height just fixes the time, the chain has not changed yet.
Before the change, all narratives are just narratives.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？
#$BTC $ETH Brothers, $SNDK rebounded 5.5% overnight, but what really supports it is not the storage price increase
$SNDK $1,357
SNDK closed up 5.53% on Monday at 1371.12, with an intraday high of 1407. Your quoted 1357 is basically the position after the night session pullback. Starting from last Friday's close at 1299, the overnight rebound exceeded 5%.
The trigger for this rebound is not NAND, but Nvidia. Over the weekend, news emerged that Nvidia requested Samsung to use TSMC's 3nm process to produce its custom HBM architecture NVHBM, while also engaging with major memory manufacturers like Micron and SK Hynix to promote this standard. The market interpreted this news as AI computing power expansion still accelerating, and the demand ceiling for memory chips has not yet been reached. SNDK was bought up along with the entire memory sector.
But what’s really worth watching is the valuation. SNDK’s current forward P/E ratio is only about 6 times, while the median for the tech sector is 21 times. The market is pricing in "this price increase cycle has peaked," but the company’s own signed long-term contracts cover about half of shipments for fiscal 2027 and about two-thirds for fiscal 2028, locking in at least $93.9 billion in revenue. A 6x PE implies the market believes next year’s profits are unsustainable, but contracts and guidance do not support this view.
The Q1 earnings report on October 29 is the next validation point. Whether the gross margin can be maintained within the guided range of 83%-85% is the most direct signal to judge if the price increase logic still holds.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ [South Korean Stock Market Rebounds Only to Turn Sour in a Day, Can Retail Investors Handle the Catch?]
The South Korean KOSPI index rebounded for a day but was slammed down again, dropping over 4% intraday. Foreign investors net sold about 636.7 billion KRW, institutions also sold 467 billion KRW, while retail investors countered by net buying 838.8 billion KRW. Despite considerable buying interest, the index still fell.
This round of sell-off is not just an emotional reaction. With U.S. Treasury yields rising and financing costs under pressure, the safe-haven asset $BTC has been fluctuating; AI data center company Elice dropped over 30% on its first day of trading, prompting the market to question: with AI infrastructure burning so much money, how much profit can it ultimately make? South Korean semiconductor stocks, which are tied to the AI industry chain, are also struggling.
What requires more attention is that while foreign investors continue to withdraw, retail investors bottom-fishing can only temporarily absorb the selling pressure and does not prove that the bottom has been reached. The rebound a few days ago was supported by institutional buying that helped the index turn positive; now with selling resuming, it indicates that capital has not yet formed a unified direction.
Next, don’t rush to guess the bottom. First, watch whether foreign selling pressure eases and whether semiconductor leaders can stop falling. If neither improves, no matter how cheap the index looks, it may just be a seemingly cheap point on the way down.$BTC
Accumulation precedes expansion.
Bitcoin spends 70–80% of the time fluctuating within a range, only breaking out briefly. To succeed in range trading, you need to be patient and trust your plan.
Two weeks ago, I opened a swing long position at $81.3k. Since then, the price has fallen below this level six times—but each time it held.
Most people would see this as weakness, exit early, and wait to re-enter at a lower price. I see it as confirmation: my price judgment is valid, and the support remains solid.
During consolidation, I repeatedly see these downward liquidity sweeps. They reset long positions, preventing the market from becoming overcrowded when the next upward wave arrives.
My judgment still holds. I will let this trading opportunity continue to develop. $BTC $ETH $SOL The semiconductor sector has fallen for 8 days and has finally stopped.
At the close on October 19 in the US Eastern Time: the Nasdaq rose 1.11%, the S&P 500 rose 0.41%, and the Dow Jones slightly fell 0.07%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ended its 8-day losing streak, the longest since October 2008, with the memory and semiconductor sectors leading the gains.
I think this is more of a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal: a natural bounce after a deep drop, but the root problem remains untreated.
The real test will be the earnings reports after the market close this Wednesday from Meta, Tesla, IBM, and Texas Instruments. LSEG expects S&P 500 constituents' Q3 earnings growth to exceed 30%, but what the market really wants is the $1.2 trillion capital expenditure forecast for next year from the five largest cloud providers, as Goldman Sachs stated. If earnings growth can't outpace capital expenditure growth, even high earnings numbers are just on credit.
I think chasing this rebound now carries more risk than reward, betting on all earnings beating expectations. The invalidation points are clear: if the Nasdaq falls back below 26,000, or if the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index resumes its losing streak, this "reversal" is directly invalidated, and the bears will continue.
Tomorrow, watch Meta and Tesla's earnings reports first. Will you wait for the results before making a move, or get in now?
$QQQ $SOXX $META
#USStocks #EarningsSeasonThe world's largest bank has moved its US dollar deposit token onto the Ethereum mainnet, yet $ETH is still hovering around $2400. On October 19, JPM Coin was officially deployed on Ethereum, open only to approved institutions, with a 1:1 backing of on-book US dollar deposits, not available to retail investors, and not publicly tradable. This is its second public chain after Base; the bank's private chain already processes over seven billion dollars daily.
Meanwhile, the Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $950 million throughout October. Banks are using the chain for settlement, but funds are selling coins.
My judgment: this is a vote on Ethereum's role as a settlement layer, not a buy signal. In the short term, watch ETF capital flows; in the long term, see who is actually using the chain. When news and capital flows conflict, watch more and act less.
$ETHDon't rush to ask where $ARB will rise to. First ask what this information has actually changed, and what things have remained completely unchanged.
$ARB is up 5.25% in 24 hours, current price 0.2023. This time there is no reliable announcement to explain the rise or fall, and I won't force a story from rumors.
What has changed is attention and expectations; what is not confirmed is the sustained direction. Price reaction: $ARB current price 0.2023, 24h +5.25%; both short-term and long-term cycles are relatively strong, price reaction is temporarily aligned; trading participation is only 0.06 times the average volume of nearly 20 bars, heat currently lacks sustained participation.
If later there is only discussion without sustained participation, this looks more like a concentration of attention. The easiest misunderstanding: alignment does not mean the news has been realized, much less that the increase will automatically continue. Announcement, heat, and direction are three separate things and cannot be substituted for one another.
The next update will only check two points: whether the two cycles turn aligned, and whether trading participation continues, rather than guessing a nice target price.
If you could only choose one, would you first trust event heat, or wait for sustained price reaction?
The market is volatile; the above is just a hotspot interpretation and does not constitute investment advice. This is straightforward talk in the crypto circle.#MarketTrends Recently, mainstream assets have been repeatedly shaken out, with institutional funds withdrawing; both $BTC and $ETH are losing capital, showing severe fund divergence. So how should one position going forward?
Many focus only on the Federal Reserve's interest rates but overlook next month's midterm elections, which will directly determine the future direction of US crypto regulation.
Originally, there was anticipation for the "Clear Act" to be implemented, providing clear regulatory distinctions for the industry and defining the responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC. However, the bill failed to pass in September and is temporarily shelved, largely because lawmakers have shifted their focus to the midterm elections.
There are roughly two possible outcomes for this election:
✔ 1. Republicans maintain control of both chambers: crypto-friendly lawmakers dominate, leading to looser regulation, a higher chance of industry bills restarting, benefiting BTC, ETH, and risk assets.
✔ 2. Democrats expand congressional seats: expectations for tighter regulation rise, increased investigations into the crypto industry, significantly increasing the difficulty of advancing bills, likely suppressing the market.
Based on previous elections, large funds tend to avoid risk assets due to many uncertainties, so most institutions and investors won't bet on this probability, resulting in a generally weak market trend recently.
So how to position today?
From the past two weeks' trends, most swing trades peak between 3 PM and 4 PM. Coupled with continuous outflows from ETF spot funds, traders can choose to short during this afternoon period, targeting around 2350-2300. $BTC This week, the harshest crash wasn't in the candlesticks, but in expectations.
On the day CPI hit 3.7% and PPI 6.3%, the probability of a rate hike in October surged from 20% to 47%, and $BTC was kicked down from above 82,000 to just over 80,000. The Korean stock market circuit breaker triggered, and the whole network was shouting "It's over, the Fed is about to act." Then, in Bangkok, Wash casually said, "I don't make predictions," and the rate hike probability plummeted back below 15% overnight.
Both bulls and bears got slapped. Now, during the FOMC blackout period, the market is so quiet it’s unnerving—but this kind of quiet is never peace; it’s the sound of bullets being chambered.
$BTC at 81,814 looks stable, but it’s actually the most uncomfortable. Around 81,600, some are buying, but every rebound to 81,800–82,200 is pressed back down. Sell orders above are denser than buy orders below. Funding rates have turned negative, meaning shorts are paying, yet the fear and greed index still hangs in the "greed" zone without fully dropping. This divergence indicates one thing: leverage is retreating, but no one really wants to sell spot at this level. Everyone is waiting for the hammer to fall at midnight on the 28th. 81,000 is the bottom line; if lost, it’s a battle to defend 80,000. Only if 81,800 is reclaimed can we talk about a rebound.
$ETH at 2,402 is the most underestimated "dark horse" in the market. While everyone’s eyes are on the Fed, Ethereum has its own bomb buried at the end of the month—the Glamsterdam upgrade activates on October 26 on the Hoodi testnet. Gas limits will jump from 60 million to 200 million, more than tripling, with built-in proposer-builder separation, seriously boosting transaction execution efficiency. As long as the market doesn’t crash, $ETH will be the first place for high-elasticity capital to flow back; if the market crashes, it will fall harder than $BTC but also bounce back faster. 2,369 is the bottom found in this wave; if it holds, the logic remains intact.
$SOL at 105.18 is the most "torn" one. The ETF has had net outflows for ten consecutive trading days, withdrawing $25.52 million, which sounds scary. But if you look closer, Morgan Stanley’s MSOL has had net inflows every day for the past 20 days without interruption. Some are using ETFs to sell, while others quietly absorb with institutional products. The 105 level is the tug-of-war line. $SOL’s sensitivity to interest rate expectations is naturally one notch higher than BTC’s. If Wash gives even a hint of dovishness, it will be the wildest to rebound; conversely, if a December rate hike is confirmed, it will be the first to fall.
A harsh truth: It’s not about who predicts best now, but who still has bullets and isn’t panicking. The rate hike probability dropping from 47% to 15% means the market has already priced in most of the "no hike in October" scenario. The real bomb isn’t on the 28th, but in December—Goldman Sachs has already said the next hike will likely be in December. So if this wave rallies because of the "October pause," don’t get carried away; it’s an escape window reserved for December. If it crashes before the 28th, it’s actually a signal to those brave enough to buy.
My stance is simple: Don’t bet on direction during the blackout period, just watch for signals. For $BTC, watch if 81,800 can be reclaimed; for $ETH, watch if 2,369 holds; for $SOL, watch if anyone keeps quietly buying below 105. Whoever signals first will be the leader of the next move.
Which one are you holding now? Report in the comments, and let’s watch together at midnight on the 28th. 🔥
$ETH $SOL #FOMC #以太坊Glamsterdam升级登陆Sepolia测试网 #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ $BTC fluctuated repeatedly between 81,648 and 83,035 over 24 hours, $ETH touched 2,443 before slipping, and $SOL was relatively resistant but not independently strong; weekly BTC -1.26%, ETH -4.65%, SOL -3.47%, no crash but no real strength either. Bulls and bears are being pushed back and forth by the 83,000 barrier, wearing down patience.
There are two reasons why the wall is strong: first, macro factors, with the 10-year US Treasury yield steady at 4.2%–4.3%, oil prices and geopolitical inflation expectations suppressing rates, so any risk buying is immediately pressed down; second, structural, 83,000 corresponds to the average cost line of spot Bitcoin ETPs, with real break-even positions stacked there. The same applies to $ETH at 2,400, where giant whales hold 20x leveraged long positions and ETF inflows exist, but the 2,400–2,500 range just can't be cleared.
There is news but not strong enough: Strive bought another 1,223 $BTC at an average price of 81,734, with total holdings of 36,818; CFTC approved Kalshi's BTCPERP, providing a compliant leverage entry for US funds—both are slow variables.
Conclusion: neither bottom-fishing nor short-chasing. Only consider defense if breaking below 81,648; without volume to firmly hold above 83,000, any rebound should be treated as a recovery.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ BTC单日涨1.62%，重新站上82,500。这波反弹的燃料来自哪里？ 先说新闻。今天的几个数字：BTC报82,493.7美元，24小时 +1.62%、近一周 -0.28%，20日区间79,775.1到87,238.3；ETF连续三天小幅净流入（+1,640万、+1,630万、+1,620万），但5日仍净流出3.271亿、10日净流出7.3亿；恐惧贪婪指数从53回升到59；美元指数101.82（-0.02%）；黄金4,196.0（+0.36%），逼近4,200。 再看资金影响。反弹的燃料可以拆成三层：第一层是资金——ETF连续三天转正，说明有配置资金在低位承接；第二层是情绪——恐惧贪婪从53回到59，说明恐慌情绪在消退；第三层是宏观——美元在101.8附近走平、黄金走强，说明流动性预期没有继续恶化。三层叠加，就有了今天的反弹。 对BTC的含义：这更像"修复性反弹"而不是"趋势反转"。判断依据是资金体量：三天合计不到5,000万的净流入，不足以支撑一波趋势性上涨；真正的趋势行情通常伴随单日上亿甚至数亿的净流入。所以这波反弹的高度，取决于资金能否从"小额试探"升级为"持续大额流入"。 我接Bitcoin is more like a struggle being strangled by macro forces. Calling it a surge, it hasn't even firmly held above the $83,000 mark; calling it a crash, it stubbornly holds near $82,000 without collapsing. This kind of twisted market is more exhausting than a one-sided decline.
It can't rise because institutions are exiting.
The US tech stocks rebounded, with the Nasdaq up over 1%, but Bitcoin didn't follow. Behind this divergence is real capital outflow: the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $228.4 million last week, and the Ethereum ETF even $320 million. Institutions aren't buying, and retail investors can't hold Bitcoin above $80,000. Coinbase's premium index dropped into negative territory, indicating that US buying support is drying up.
It doesn't fall deeply because shorts are also getting hit.
In the past 24 hours, $335 million was liquidated across the network, nearly 70% of which were short positions. Bitcoin once touched $83,000, and those chasing shorts were instantly wiped out. This shows that although the market is weak, no one dares to heavily short — everyone knows a single news trigger can blow up the shorts.
The real meat grinder is in derivatives.
Prices oscillate between $81,000 and $83,000, liquidating both longs and shorts. Longs were liquidated for $173 million, and shorts didn't fare much better. In this market, direction doesn't matter; position size does. Heavy positions get shaken out first, whether right or wrong.NFLX will release its earnings report at 4 a.m. Beijing time on Wednesday. The stock price at 69.85 is about 7% above the 52-week low of 65.08. I am "watching but not chasing."
Yahoo daily chart: On 10/19, it closed at 69.85, down about 25% year-to-date, approximately 44% below the 52-week high of 124.86.
Options price this earnings at about ±9.4%. The stock fell 7.3% and 9.7% respectively the day after the last two earnings reports.
Last week, the company announced layoffs of about 6%, roughly 1,000 people, and on Friday replaced content leadership with former Disney executive Peter Rice.
Market expectations are revenue of about $12.88 billion and earnings per share of $0.82, almost the same as the company's own guidance.
I think whether it meets expectations is not the key; the progress of advertising and the guidance for the fourth quarter will determine if the decline can stop.
Layoffs can save costs, but that doesn't mean the viewing time lost to YouTube will come back.
My approach: observe and do not chase before the earnings report; do not bet on direction near 70, nor catch a falling knife.
After the earnings, watch if the daily price holds above the 10/15 high of 73.07; if it closes below the 52-week low of 65.08, the logic for stopping the decline is invalid.
Which side are you on: wait for advertising data to come in before deciding, or bet on a rebound if 65 holds?
$NFLX $GOOGL $AMZN
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus #SpaceX's first full quarterly earnings report after going public will be revealedETH's ETF is bleeding, but the whales are catching it with a basin.
Since October, the cumulative net outflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF has reached 955 million USD, setting the largest monthly outflow record this year. Last week, Bitcoin ETFs saw an outflow of 229 million, Ethereum ETFs 320 million, totaling 549 million. Retail investors are cutting losses in ETFs, fleeing without looking back.
But at the same time, the on-chain picture is completely different.
During the 72 hours in early October, large wallet addresses cumulatively absorbed over 166,000 ETH, which at 2500 USD each is about 415 million USD. The same group also swept nearly 15,000 BTC and 45 million XRP. This is not chasing a rally; it's accumulating chips while ETH dropped 6% in a week and retraced nearly 50% from the August 2025 peak.
More directly, there is a whale on Hype with long positions piled up to 140 million USD, holding 1,236 BTC and 15,928 ETH.
The spot selling pressure caused by ETF redemptions is being eaten up bite by bite by on-chain whales.
Today BTC is around 82,000, ETH above 2,400, and in the past 24 hours the entire network exploded with 188 million in volume, with longs accounting for 104 million. Leverage is being hit, ETFs are retreating, but the whales' money hasn't stopped.
My judgment: ETF outflows are emotional, whale accumulation is positional. At the 2,400 level, there are buyers when prices are pushed down, but those buyers are not in a hurry to push prices up.
ETH at 2,400 — do you think it's the bottom or halfway up the mountain? Let's discuss in the comments 👇 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Bitcoin has been fluctuating repeatedly in the $83,000–$86,000 range, with spot ETFs experiencing a weekly net outflow reaching $679 million at one point, marking the largest scale since June. On the macro side, the 10-year US Treasury real yield is approaching the highest level since 2008, suppressing the overall valuation of risk assets.
Since the interest rate hikes, Layer 2 (+32%), RWA (+29%), and AI tokens (+29%) have led the gains, while Meme coins and payment tokens have only risen about 5%. Within L2, STRK's weekly increase once exceeded 60%, with ZK and modular narratives taking over the altcoin rally. On the other hand, DeFi and Gaming/NFT sectors have become major net outflow zones, and the Meme craze is also fading.
Behind this divergence is a shift in capital logic. On the regulatory front, USDC has been recognized by the EBA as the first “significant electronic money token” under the MiCA framework, and the final rules of the US GENIUS Act are also nearing implementation, opening compliance channels for stablecoins and RWA. On the institutional side, the on-chain total market value of RWA has returned to $39.18 billion, with asset holders increasing by 16.3% month-over-month.
A deeper narrative is emerging: Citrini Research points out that AI Agents require an around-the-clock programmable financial system, while asset tokenization brings real assets on-chain. Their convergence is driving capital to shift from mainstream coins to DeFi protocols and infrastructure that can generate actual fees. This rotation is not betting on an “altcoin season,” but on who can secure a position within the framework of delegated finance.Is $BTC Bitcoin still valuable now? BTC has been stuck at 82,000 for three days. It can't rise, nor can it fall.
You might think this is "building momentum." Wrong.
This is the market slowly grinding away your patience and positions before the FOMC.
Let's first lay out the timeline for this week.
After the market closed on Wednesday, Meta and Tesla both reported. Meta's full-year capital expenditure guidance is $130 billion to $145 billion, with institutions expecting Q3 free cash flow to turn negative directly to -$9.14 billion. The AI story has been told for two years, but now the market only asks one question: the money has been spent, where are the profits?
On the same day, EIA crude oil inventory was released. Last week's inventory unexpectedly dropped by 8.557 million barrels, while the expectation was only a 288,000 barrel decrease. Oil prices have been held high between $98 and $110 due to Middle East tensions; if inventory depletion exceeds expectations again, inflation expectations will be kicked up another notch.
On October 28, the FOMC meeting. The current pricing shows an 82.8% probability of maintaining rates and a 17.2% chance of a rate hike. But the real killer is December: the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has already reached 77.8%. Staying put in October is almost a sure bet.
Known cards don't get priced in. It's the unknown cards that kill.
Scenario A: Bullish.
Meta's earnings prove AI investment can generate revenue, Tesla's gross margin holds steady, and tech stocks lead the market sentiment higher. Meanwhile, EIA inventory unexpectedly accumulates, giving oil prices a breather from their highs. Long-term interest rates fall back, and BTC surges with volume above 83,000.Can't withstand one big loss after making ten profits? A practical portfolio risk control plan that strictly limits position size, drawdown, and concentration.
Practical portfolio risk management essentials
【Three-layer risk control framework】
① Single trade level: single trade stop loss ≤ 2%, risk amount = principal × 2%
② Portfolio level: single portfolio ≤ 10%, theme concentration ≤ 3%
③ Total position level: total risk exposure ≤ 30%, crypto:traditional = 7:3
【Three indicators to identify risk】
① Look at maximum drawdown: reduce positions at 20%, fully exit at 30%
② Look at correlation: same-direction coin correlation coefficient > 0.7, merge or halve
③ Look at concentration: single asset risk contribution > 40%, split
【Four steps of risk budgeting】
① Set monthly tolerable loss = principal × 10%
② Allocate budget to each portfolio: high certainty gets low budget / low certainty gets high budget
③ Track utilization rate in real time
④ Warning line: stop new positions if utilization > 70%
【Five-step routine】
① Morning meeting review: previous day P&L + position P&L + budget utilization
② Midday check: verify if warning line is reached
③ Intraday alert: check funding rates and liquidation bands for volatile coins
④ Post-market settlement: record P&L + reset budget
⑤ Weekend review: adjust weekly budget and concentration
【Three retreat triggers】
① Single portfolio drawdown > 15%
② Entire market single-day drop > 10%
③ Theme correlation breaks 0.8
【Five red lines】
① Single trade ≤ 2% strictly enforced
② No heavy positions held over weekends
③ No adding positions during event windows
④ No averaging down against the trend
⑤ No heavy concentration over 40% in a single asset
Not investment advice #NetflixGrowth or $BTC $ETH There are 14 days left until the U.S. midterm elections on November 3rd. The recent strategy remains to short on rebounds.
Looking back at history, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant drops during the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm elections. On the eve of the elections, policy uncertainty is high, and institutions tend to be risk-averse. Ethereum ETFs saw large outflows in October.
Crypto regulatory bills have been blocked, the SEC's regulatory rules are about to be implemented, and regulation is tightening. BlackRock-related ETF funds continue to withdraw, signaling a bearish outlook. Do not blindly go long. Last night, the US stock market finally closed in the green, with the Nasdaq rising just over one point, and the semiconductor sector breaking an eight-day losing streak.
Some people asked me backstage if we can finally breathe a sigh of relief. I checked the market depth; not so fast.
Only a few big players drove the gains. The median stock in the S&P 500 is still 15% below its 52-week high, one of the worst readings since the internet bubble burst. The equal-weighted index has underperformed the market-cap weighted index by six points over the past six months. In plain terms: the index's average volume is propped up by a few large stocks, while most others are stalled on the sidelines with engines off.
The laggards are clear too. Financial stocks all closed in the red last night; Wells Fargo, Citibank, and JPMorgan all fell together, while the only winners were those few AI-related companies. Compared to holding government bonds, stocks no longer offer extra compensation; the risk premium has dropped below zero. Last week, hedge funds reduced their tech stock holdings at the fastest pace in at least a decade.
This week, Meta and a few others will report earnings. Whether they can hold up depends on whether the money is truly coming back. On the oil front, WTI remains above 103, and that pressure hasn't eased.
From running this race these past few years, I've learned one thing: don't focus on averages; look at how many cars are actually moving. How does the market feel on your side?
Personal record sharing, not investment advice. #Strive large-scale accumulation, Strategy's buyback scale exceeds coin purchases
【Strategy spent only $22 million on coin purchases but splurged $193 million on preferred stock buybacks】
Saylor is still hoarding $BTC, but this week's funds clearly lean more to the other side. Strategy recently increased its Bitcoin holdings by 267 coins, spending about $22.1 million; meanwhile, it spent $193.1 million on $STRC preferred stock buybacks, nearly 9 times the amount spent on coin purchases. The company also raised the related buyback authorization from $2 billion to $3 billion.
On the other hand, Strive bought 4,045 BTC in one week, raising its holdings to 36,818 coins, with a purchase scale about 15 times that of Strategy. However, this money is backed by financing and warrant exercises, so it cannot be simply understood as the company aggressively buying with its own cash.
This contrast is quite interesting: the corporate treasury is still buying coins, but Strategy currently also has to take care of the preferred stock trading price and capital structure. Buybacks can support the securities' performance but do not equate to an equivalent scale of buying pressure for BTC.
I won't just look at who buys more; I want to see who can sustain financing without straining their own finances too much. If Strategy later resumes larger-scale coin purchases while keeping financing costs and preferred stock pressure manageable, it would better demonstrate that its treasury model still has strength.According to the latest highlights summarized by DOGE AI, DogeOS, created by the founder of MyDoge, announced that its platform has completed over 1 million community and gamified interaction tasks, with bullish sentiment in the community rising back to 70%.
From a data perspective, DogeOS surpassing one million tasks means DOGE is evolving from a single Meme symbol into an application ecosystem with real user activity. Against the backdrop of macro liquidity tightening and a lack of strong external capital inflows, bottom-up community gamification and ecological interaction are providing extremely valuable resilience to support the market bottom.
However, the heat of on-chain narratives transmitting to secondary market prices still experiences a time lag. Currently, the 4-hour chart shows a bullish falling wedge pattern forming, but on the daily level, short-term and long-term moving averages are intertwined, and technical pressure remains. This “fundamental ecological activity vs. technical high-level trapped positions” struggle constitutes the main contradiction at present.
The surge in ecological task volume demonstrates the stickiness of retail holders’ chips, but converting community activity into a trend-breaking price rally still requires an overall improvement in market risk appetite.
Two key indicators need to be observed going forward: first, whether the number of real active addresses on DogeOS can maintain a second growth; second, whether the lower support of the monthly flag consolidation structure can form a substantial bottom. If the support is solid, ecological benefits will gradually convert into chips.Strive added 4,045 BTC, bringing its total reserves to 36,818 BTC. 📈 But the bigger question is whether its Bitcoin holdings per share are increasing.
Treasury growth only creates lasting value if dilution and holding costs remain under control. Strategy’s focus on preferred buybacks highlights the same challenge: accumulating more BTC matters, but turning those reserves into long-term shareholder value matters even more. 👀
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins The shadowless lamp above the operating table hasn't been turned off yet, but the blood pressure monitor is already screaming—not the patient, but CoreWeave's shareholder list. Since the three co-founders went public in 2025, they've drained about $3.3 billion from this body, with $2.4 billion released just this year. Prearranged and disclosed, it sounds like a cleanly signed preoperative informed consent form, but massive bleeding on the operating table is still massive bleeding; the coronary artery is spurting blood, and you're telling me it's all compliant procedures?
Looking at the vital signs: the stock price dropped 25% in a week, that's like an ejection fraction cliff collapse; some long-term bond yields have exceeded 15%, meaning peripheral perfusion pressure can no longer sustain vital organs. This is no longer just ICU observation; the stock artery feels cold to the touch. QCP pointed out AI credit risk, and Bank of America warned that overexpansion would erode returns—this is called myocardial remodeling decompensation in my jargon: the thicker the ventricular wall, the greater the oxygen consumption; the later the bypass, the more irreversible the necrosis area.
Can the backlog of orders be converted into stable cash flow? This is a question of whether collateral circulation can develop. Long-term demand may be attractive, but that's a long-term prognosis; with bond yields soaring to 15% now, this is an acute myocardial infarction window—you have to get the heart beating first before talking about rehabilitation training. Jensen Huang is bullish on the long term, and I don't argue—that good long-term prognosis and massive bleeding on the table are never contradictory; I've seen too many patients with beautiful preoperative assessments whose blood pressure dropped to zero after opening the chest.
The real lesion isn't just this single heart of CoreWeave, but the entire AI cloud circulatory system. Insider cash-outs are just endocardial growths; once they fall into the bloodstream, they become emboli drifting downstream with credit spreads—if other AI cloud companies are also using short-term financing to support long-term capital expenditures, this is systemic inflammatory response, not something local patches can fix. Before stitching, you have to determine where the perfusion boundary is; and with the current vital signs, I only see blood pressure continuing to fall, the monitor's red light hasn't stopped, and my hand hasn't touched the vessel yet— #coreweave3.3bsharesalesAfter SKHYNIX's massive liquidation wipeout of $80 million, can this rebound be trusted?!
SKHYNIX is a good company facing bad sentiment this round; the fundamentals are solid. By 2026, production capacity will be fully sold out. Institutional forecasts for Q3 operating profit reach 77 trillion KRW, with HBM market share over 60%. Even the South Korean Deputy Prime Minister has come out to say the boom will last at least until 2027.
However, the capital side is pressured by two factors: first, macro kills valuations, with the US semiconductor sector overall pulling back; second, the ADS fundraising caused a blood drain panic. The ADR has dropped continuously from a high of $199, and on-chain perpetual contracts triggered over $80 million in cascading liquidations.
From the market perspective, after a sharp drop from 985 to 853, it reversed in a V-shape to 929. Short-term moving averages formed a golden cross, but the order ratio is -21.7%, with selling pressure still heavy, indicating a low-volume recovery.
My trading approach:
Do not chase the rebound at 929; consider light short positions in the 950-970 moving average resistance zone, with stop loss above 985.
For a more conservative approach, wait for the bulls and a pullback to stabilize at 880-900 before considering, targeting 940.
Control position size before the Q3 earnings release on October 28.
The above is only my personal view and does not constitute investment advice. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ On October 19, 39 years ago, the US stock market crashed 22%,
On the same day, someone said the Nasdaq could crash 30%,
—and Bitcoin is in the same basket.
October 19 marks the 39th anniversary of Black Monday.
On this day in 1987, the US stock market crashed 22% in one day.
On the same day, an analyst said the Nasdaq could crash 30%.
The person who said this is Jerry Siegel, Chief Strategist at WisdomTree.
Let's first talk about what concerns us: if the Nasdaq crashes, funds won’t just withdraw from the stock market—Bitcoin is in the same basket, and it’s even more volatile.
The only possible trigger for the crash he mentioned is:
The money spent on AI must generate revenue.
And now the Nasdaq is already heavily bet on the AI theme.
AI concept stocks account for the highest proportion in the index’s history.
One theme supports an entire index.
Siegel’s own explanation is:
Demand is real, but after overcapacity, returns will be squeezed—those who spend the most money will be the first to have their profits squeezed.
Actually, the shakeout started last week.
The Nasdaq fell 2.15% on Friday, closing at 26,140, marking the worst week since June, down 4.5% for the week.
And Meta and Tesla’s earnings reports are coming soon.
Everyone is waiting for the same answer: Has the money spent translated into revenue growth?
But we need to distinguish one thing.
Siegel’s long-term view on AI hasn’t changed; what he adjusted is the timeline—not that it won’t work long-term, but that this correction might come faster than expected.$BTC $ETH November 3rd U.S. midterm elections, countdown 14 days! Why has Keke been shouting to short on the rebound recently? Because in election years, the crypto world never has good outcomes.
Let's look at history: three election years, three major crashes, this is no coincidence.
2014 midterm elections: Bitcoin plummeted 56% for the whole year, falling from the start to the end of the year, halving twice.
2018 midterm elections: hit by the Fed's continuous rate hikes, crypto bear market, BTC dropped from 20,000 to 3,000, ETH from 1,400 to 80, a bloodbath.
2022 midterm elections: hit by the FTX crash, a black swan directly blew through, BTC fell from 60,000 to 15,000, countless people liquidated to zero.
Three midterm elections, three major crashes, do you think this time will be an exception?
Why must it fall before the election? Three reasons!
First, policy uncertainty, institutions hedge. Before the election, policies are unstable, control of Congress may change, regulatory tone may change, institutions can't risk big money on this uncertainty. Money is smart, if uncertain, it withdraws, hedges first. Many institutions are already hedging, ETH ETF outflows hit 955 million in October, a record this year, this is a signal.
Second, regulatory bearish news is on the way. On September 15, the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" failed in the Senate 49-50, losing the chance to become law in 2026, Coinbase and Circle plunged nearly 10% that day, BTC once fell below 75,000. On October 20, today, the SEC's crypto asset regulatory rule comment period closed, next is rule implementation, regulation will only tighten, not loosen.
Third, BlackRock is the key indicator. Now the focus is on when BlackRock will hedge, once BlackRock pulls out, it's a big market downturn. BlackRock's ETHA accounts for 93% of ETF outflows, it is already running, are you still buying more?$MUBARAK dead cat bounceA powerful convective cloud cluster named "600 billion dollars" is rapidly forming over the North American computing power coastline, with a central pressure so low that all valuation models at the duty desk are starting to ring in their ears.
Radar echoes show that this large model company is raising $600 billion for a Google-dedicated computing power chip cluster, with Blackstone-related funds possibly investing $9 billion at a 10% coupon rate. This is not an ordinary cumulonimbus cloud but a financing storm with upper-level divergence and strong low-level inflow: the coupon rate acts like sea temperature, raising the system's convective available potential energy; computing power procurement is like water vapor flux, continuously supplying fuel to the cloud column. Third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 45%, and adjusted profits turning positive indeed make the precipitation efficiency look better, but the cloud top development still depends on vertical wind shear—the key to whether the echo top energy can continue to rise is whether revenue and cash flow can support computing power investment.
More troublesome is the widening temperature difference on both sides of the front. The listed valuation expectation has been revised down from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion, indicating that members in the ensemble forecast are beginning to converge toward the cold zone; the New York City Comptroller is demanding more comprehensive security governance before listing, and related communications are ongoing, which is equivalent to adding terrain friction to the storm path. The company has also submitted a security legislation draft to federal legislators, turning governance uncertainty from a crosswind into a dry intrusion, weakening the potential height of the valuation center. Every notch increase in funding cost lowers the visibility of the listing window by one level; a 10% coupon is not a clear sky signal but evidence of continuous shear of the credit front above the computing power hot zone.
Shifting focus to the US stock mapped targets, the linkage logic resembles a train effect: the rain belt of computing power capital expenditure continuously passes through the same cloud system, revenue growth provides warm and moist transport, while financing costs and governance constraints draw divergence from the upper levels. If the quarter-on-quarter revenue growth rate is maintained, the echo can still organize; if coupon rates and security reviews simultaneously intensify pressure, the strong precipitation area on the storm's right side will move toward valuation downgrades. Currently, it is not simply pre-frontal warming but a direct collision between the computing power cloud top and the capital cold front; when a 10% cost presses on the $600 billion financing cloud system, the lightning of valuation downgrades has already struck before the listing bell. #anthropic60bfinancingThe more ETFs flow out, the more $BTC rebounds. This is not a sign that the bearish trend has bottomed out, but rather that BTC's pricing power is undergoing a brutal "hard landing handover."
The previous logic was that spot ETF buying was the strongest driver for BTC's rise. Now, the outflow of funds is because Wall Street players are deleveraging, replenishing margins for other assets, or directly chasing high-yield U.S. Treasuries. This is a retreat of macro risk-averse capital, and the label of BTC as a "dollar liquidity amplifier" is fading.
So who is buying this rebound? It's the on-chain whales, Asian buyers, and OTC hedge funds. BTC's underlying pricing logic is switching hard from "being constrained by dollar liquidity" to "countering dollar credit." ETFs are selling, whales are absorbing, and the chip structure is undergoing a fundamental reshuffle. It's like a bridge where the cars on top are moving backward, but the piers are being reinforced by another group. As long as the underlying chips don't scatter, the bridge won't collapse.
Look at $ETH to understand better. The ETF outflow scale for Ethereum is even larger than BTC's, but its rebound lacks strength. The core reason is that Ethereum doesn't have the global hard currency consensus that BTC does. Once macro funds withdraw, it can't even find a decent buyer to take over.
My view is straightforward: don't apply past ETF logic to the current market. This rebound can continue, but the process will definitely be unpleasant. BTC is squeezing out bubbles at this stage while reestablishing its hard asset status. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ Remember: Exiting a trade doesn't require proving that the entire market direction was wrong; it only requires acknowledging that the original logic of this trade is no longer valid.Don't just focus on $BTC's price changes tonight; look up at energy. The spot price of Asian liquefied natural gas has surged to just over $30 per million British thermal units, the highest since the end of 2022 — one-fifth of Qatar's global supply is stuck in the Strait of Hormuz and can't get out, forcing buyers to scramble for high prices in the spot market.
Oil is up, diesel is up, and now it's natural gas's turn. Many people overlook this underlying trend: energy costs keep pushing higher layer by layer, causing inflation to stick and not come down, forcing central banks to pull back on rate cuts.
Many think war is a safe haven and bullish for Bitcoin, but it's actually the opposite — this time the market is pricing war as "rate hikes," and when risk-off comes, $BTC and gold might both get hit.
Do you think this wave of energy price increases will completely kill the expectations for rate cuts? The two Korean storage giants have dropped so much that just the pension funds are floating a loss of $137 billion. Almost at the same time, Bank of America came out saying: storage stocks' valuations have already shown signs of a cyclical bottom, and the market's worries are overblown.
Think about this rhythm. The more it bleeds, the more big banks come out to call the bottom. I'm not saying Bank of America is necessarily wrong, but—the ones calling the bottom don't have to be responsible for your positions; the ones losing money are you.
The biggest taboo in trend trading is listening to big banks' stories to catch the bottom. The bottom isn't called out; it's ground out when prices fall to the point that no one dares to buy, and both funding costs and trading volume drop together. So what about now? Institutions are still dumping.
The more you accept bottoms calculated by others, the harder you fall. For this round of storage stocks, do you believe Bank of America's "cyclical bottom"?From the 14th to the 19th, on days when SOL fell, trading volume decreased day by day, while on days when it rose, volume increased day by day. The price made a full circle back to around 105, and the direction of volume changed.
On the 15th, it closed at 105.44 with a volume of 2.85 million, the heaviest day of the week, and the price rose by over 1 point that day. On the 16th, it closed at 104.45 with a volume of 1.89 million. On the 17th, it closed at 103.47 with a volume of 987,000, the driest day of the week. The price retreated 2 points over two days, and volume dropped by two-thirds.
Volume shrank during the decline, indicating that buyers were withdrawing, but sellers did not flood the market. Forced selling by trapped holders usually brings volume, but no such signs appeared this week.
On the 18th, volume was 1.52 million, and on the 19th, 1.87 million, recovering over 80% of the decline in two days. In late September, SOL's daily average volume was still above 3 million, but this week the daily average was below 1.9 million, showing a step down in participation. Despite the price drop, there was no panic selling. The cost of volume contraction during the decline is that the rise is slow, relying only on existing funds won't push it far.
The intraday high on the 14th was 108.67, the low on the 18th was 100.43, an 8-point drop, of which more than half has now been recovered. The high on the 19th was 106, and the close on the 17th was 103, only 3 dollars apart, with four trading days of back-and-forth.
Watch the volume for the next two days; if SOL's volume stays above 1.5 million and the 104.9 level holds, there is still strength to test higher. The 987,000 volume on the 17th was the week's volume bottom, and it has only been two trading days since it started climbing from there. $SOL $APR is weak this week. The unlock on October 23 will release tokens equivalent to 47% of the current circulating supply, only three days away. We backtested similar large unlock events over the past two years; about three-quarters of these events underperformed the market seven days before the unlock, with consistent trends in the samples before and after. We are currently in this window. Yesterday's market also aligns with this. The price pulled back from 0.02357 to 0.02798, a volatility of over 30%, but long positions liquidated amounted to $410,000, nearly four times the short positions. Bulls trying to catch the rebound were repeatedly shaken out, while shorts were barely hurt. Contract open interest is very small; volatility mainly comes from spot trading, with those wanting to exit before the unlock continuously selling off. The chart shows progressively lower highs, bearish moving averages, RSI at 33, all pointing to supply pressure. Conditions to turn bullish: closing above 0.03142 before the unlock would indicate this batch of tokens has been digested in advance, invalidating the weak outlook. If 0.02357 does not hold, the decline this week will widen. There is no stable direction in backtests after the unlock day; this analysis only covers the three days before the unlock.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Viewpoint 1: Fundamentals/Long-term Investment Perspective (Somewhat Rationally Optimistic)
Core Logic: Focus on margin improvement and the second growth curve (advertising). Viewpoint: Netflix is currently in a critical transition from a "pure subscription" model to a dual-driven model of "subscription + advertising." Although the market worries that subscription user growth has hit a ceiling (i.e., "hitting the wall"), earnings forecasts show operating margin is expected to rise to 33.2% (higher than last year's 28.2%), indicating the company's cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and pricing power remain strong. Tonight's key focus is not whether revenue beats expectations, but on the monetization efficiency at the advertising level. If the advertising business shows strong growth momentum, it can not only offset concerns about subscription slowdown but also reshape Netflix's valuation logic. Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but in the long run, the advertising business is the key to breaking through.$MUBARAK analyzed DNA last time, this time let's analyze this altcoin. What exactly is it doing? Clearly, the scheme is too deep "ETF hemorrhaged 590 million, but shorts are retreating"
Last week, the total net outflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs was $228.4 million, with BlackRock's IBIT bleeding $228.6 million in a single week. But strangely, at the same time, Wall Street hedge funds reduced their net short positions in Bitcoin futures by nearly 15%, while arbitrage positions surged by 48%.
What happened? ETFs are pulling out funds, but the shorts are also running away — shorts are not increasing bearish bets but shifting to neutral hedging.
Why is this noteworthy? If institutions were truly bearish, they would increase short positions rather than withdraw them. The current signal is: funds are flowing out, but the position structure is "de-directionalizing," with both bulls and bears holding back and watching rather than betting one-sidedly.
Which observation is more supported? This looks more like defensive portfolio adjustment during range-bound oscillation rather than a trend bearish outlook. Considering the tech stock rebound that BTC did not follow and the cooling expectations for the "up month" in October, the market is waiting for an external variable to break the deadlock.
Next, focus on one key thing: when will the ETF outflow stop bleeding? Without a shift in capital flow, the MACD golden cross is just a technical repair.
The suspense remains: if ETF outflows continue and shorts keep retreating, who will defend the 80,000 level?
Feel free to discuss BTC morning report in the comments. $BTC $ETH