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$AMD profits could grow tenfold over the next three years, as $META, OpenAI, and Anthropic's committed AI capacity grows as the $ORCL 50,000 GPU MI450 supercluster expands.
This demand drives two profit engines: Instinct GPUs drive AI growth, EPYC Venice expands its share of high-margin servers, and Helios racks capture more value from each deployment.
The greatest upside potential may come from inference, where 31 TB per rack of HBM4 and proxy workloads push the CPU-to-GPU ratio to 1:1, potentially accelerating both Instinct and EPYC simultaneously.NVIDIA $NVDA This business is getting more and more like one hand is being turned into another.
Currently, AI orders under negotiation exceed $750 billion, with a partnership with SK Group just announced over the weekend worth over $500 billion, and now possibly $250 billion in guarantees for OpenAI.
I'll sell you the card, and at the same time, I'll guarantee you to borrow money. You use the borrowed money to buy my card.
This scene feels so familiar.After the Korean stock market fell, US chip stocks took over.
Micron dropped 4.6% pre-market, Applied Materials fell 3.5%, and Nvidia is also down. The market is now worried not just about a single domestic DUV machine, but whether the previously high valuations of AI chip stocks can withstand intensified competition and declining returns on capital expenditures.
The most important signal tonight: whether there is real buying after the market opens, rather than just looking at how much the pre-market has dropped.
#CXMTDebutShockwave #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch
$BTC $ETH $AEON Why are storage prices still rising, but storage stocks have already fallen?
Because the stock market looks further ahead. Everyone basically knows how high the profits are today; the biggest controversy now is whether there will be an oversupply in two to three years.
This scenario has already played out once in the last round of new energy vehicles.
In 2021, demand for new energy vehicles exploded, global lithium mine supply couldn't keep up, and battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rose from about ¥60,000/ton to nearly ¥600,000/ton, increasing nearly 10 times in two years.
In the industry chain, whoever is the scarcest gets the profits concentrated there first.
Lithium mining companies made huge profits, while battery manufacturers and car companies had to bear increasingly high raw material costs. In 2022, CATL's gross margin once dropped from nearly 28% to about 15%, simply because lithium prices rose too fast and battery price increases couldn't keep up.
High profits quickly attracted a lot of capital.
Mine expansions, rising capital expenditures, and increasing long-term purchase agreements. The market also began to worry whether lithium would still be so scarce when these new capacities come online in two to three years.
Therefore, lithium mining stocks often start to fall before lithium prices actually peak.
When lithium carbonate prices plummeted in 2023, many thought car manufacturers could finally turn all cost reductions into profits.
But the auto industry immediately entered a price war.
Tesla cut prices, BYD followed, and more brands competed for market share. Batteries did get cheaper, but the saved money did not all stay with the car manufacturers; a large part eventually turned into lower car prices.
Raw material cost reductions and downstream profit improvements are separated by industry competition dynamics.
$PI NVIDIA is negotiating about $250 billion in financing guarantees for OpenAI's 10-gigawatt super data center in Ohio, combined with another $350 billion chip financing, bringing total exposure close to $600 billion—and the reason for this money is that Wall Street's traditional bond market has clearly rejected OpenAI. Over the past two years, the "Great Leap Forward in AI Infrastructure" has been driven by two words: computing power and capital. But the deal exposed on July 27 was the first time the most vulnerable link in the capital chain was put on the surface. According to The Wall Street Journal and confirmed by multiple media outlets, Nvidia is in talks with OpenAI to secure a lease for its SoftBank subsidiary, SB Energy, to develop a data center campus in Picton, Ohio. This site was once the "Pozmouth Gas Diffusion Plant" during the Cold War and is now planned to build a 10-gigawatt-sized AI computing hub—Phase I, 800 MW, expected to start production in 2028, with full completion expected around 2030, by which time the capacity will be nearly twice that of Northern Virginia's existing world's largest data center cluster. Why does NVIDIA need a "safety net"? The answer is straightforward: OpenAI can't borrow money. According to estimates, OpenAI is expected to generate about $25 billion in revenue in 2026, but losses over the same period could reach $14 billion, with an operating margin of -55%; Even more astonishing, internal forecasts show cumulative losses by 2029🌟 On July 27, Changxin Technology listed on the A-share market, with a trading volume exceeding 140 billion yuan on its first day, setting a new record for single-day trading volume among A-share stocks and pushing its market value to the top of the A-share market. But just as it was about to "ascend the throne," the other side of the Pacific Ocean collapsed first—the US semiconductor sector broadly declined, Nvidia dropped nearly 5%, SK Hynix's ADR plunged, South Korea's Kospi dropped over 6%, circuit breakers triggered in early trading, and the Nikkei fell in tandem. Why does a newly listed Chinese storage stock trigger a global chain reaction? 📌 Core Event Review - On July 13, South Korea's KOSPI index triggered circuit breakers for the seventh time this year; SK Hynix closed down 15.4%, marking a rare single-day drop in years—the timing was exactly three days before Changxin's STAR Market subscription on July 16. - On July 27, Changxin officially went public, absorbing 140 billion in trading volume on its first day, significantly draining existing tech stocks; On that day, US chip stocks plunged across the board, with Nvidia dropping nearly 5% and SK Hynix's ADR dropping as much as 8%. - The trigger goes beyond "sentiment": SK Hynix's capital expenditure growth in 2026 is 32% higher than institutional expectations, raising concerns that the Korean storage giant is overvalued under expectations of Changxin's capacity release. 💡 Why this matters: Changxin is not an ordinary new stock; it is a flagship for domestic substitution of DRAM/HBM (High Bandwidth Memory). The bottleneck for AI computing power has long been more than just GPUs, but HBM $COIN $CRCL $BTC The chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is optimistic! Who benefits the most from the passage of the Clear Bill?
The SEC chairman personally expressed "optimism," but the probability of approval on Polymarket is only 38%.
The core of the bill is one thing: who controls whom in the future. The SEC controls securities issuance, while the CFTC controls spot trading of digital commodities like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Exchanges no longer have to guess the regulators' reactions.
Who benefits the most?
Coinbase (COIN) is the top player—the exchange business directly benefits from clearer rules. After the news broke, COIN surged over 11% at one point.
Circle (CRCL) follows closely—the USDC stablecoin receives federal legal protection, having previously surged 20% in a single day on positive news.
Robinhood (HOOD) crypto business will also expand due to clear rules.
Mining farms MARA and RIOT benefited emotionally—regulators only dared to make major moves when regulation became clearer.
There's also a dark horse: Former Ethereum core developer Eric Conner called it the "biggest winner"—the only project registered in the US and applying for a CFTC license. The bill passed is like a tailor-made entry ticket.
How to do it? Focus on two time windows: July 30 (the deadline) and August 7 (Senate adjournment). If there's no progress after that, the bill basically has no chance in 2026.
Those who want to bet on "unexpected passes" place small positions on call options on COIN and CRCL; If it doesn't work, that's just how it is—the market is already losing hope. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 This $BANK surged from the bottom, with nearly a 2000% increase leaving the bears powerless, and the liquidation messages probably filled many people's phones. But I glanced at my position—I lost 21.70U, with a return of -8.75%. The current price is 0.3317. Although the loss isn't much, I'm among the ones who got stuck chasing on highs. Why am I still losing money after this much rise? Because chasing at a temporary high, that's the price of FOMO. $SOFTBANK After this explosive surge, profit-taking is huge, and short-term pullbacks are completely normal. My strong parity price is 0.297, about 10% of the current price with a safety cushion, so I can hold up for now. ETH and BTC were also average today, $ETH returning to around 1878, with a floating gain of 3U. $BTC Still at 63,423, slightly loss-making, the overall market hasn't provided much support. For coins like BANK that are explosive to buy, either get a big deal early or simply avoid them. Chasing highs midway and getting stuck is the worst — the rise has nothing to do with you, but the drop is all the same. I now choose to hold my position without moving it, setting my stop-loss below 0.30, neither cutting losses nor increasing positions. This coin is highly volatile; survival is more important than making money. It's better to earn less than to be swept away in one wave. #韩股重挫8%, Changxin tops A-shares for the first day; #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day Hyperliquid's derivatives holdings hit a new high of $11.5 billion, directly colliding with the $400 million token unstaking scheduled at the end of July. The core short-term contradiction lies in the contest between institutions' hedging defense on the derivatives side and the strength of spot market support.
Of the current $11.5 billion in contract open interest, tokenized US stocks account for 61% of the trading volume, indicating that funds are concentrated in high-frequency, low-friction on-chain order books. Strong trading fee retention cannot directly offset the impact of open chip releases, and short-term liquidity pricing power has been taken over by unlocked funds.
In the downside scenario, the main driving force comes from nearly $200 million in staked tokens released in a single day on July 30, along with a total of $400 million in chip tests. Large institutional investors often establish short contracts 24 to 48 hours before the uncollateral date to hedge risk. If spot depth cannot quickly absorb selling pressure, the price will be pushed into the turnover range of $38 to $42.
In the upward scenario, the trigger condition is spot buying that engulfs the hedging selling pressure in advance. If contract short positions are overcrowded and prices stabilize before the uncollateral date, it may trigger short liquidations in the derivatives market.
The signal to judge the failure of the downside hedging logic is that around July 30, contract open interest was sharply squeezed down, while spot prices remained stable without falling. Once spot prices break above the high and open interest stays above $11.5 billion, it indicates that hedging pressure has been fully digested.
The most important variable to watch over the next seven days is $HYPE changes in contract open interest around the July 30 unstaking node and the spot volume stabilization signal in the $38 to $42 range.
#美国暂停预测市场州级禁令 #美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落BlackRock has also started pushing for the CLARITY Act, and Wall Street really can't wait
Recently, BlackRock publicly supported the CLARITY Act, and my first reaction was: Wall Street really can't wait. The crypto community has been calling for "clear regulation" for many years. Project teams and exchanges keep shouting every day, which I think is normal; no one wants to suddenly receive an SEC subpoena one day.
But now even BlackRock is personally urging them, making things a bit different.
Samara Cohen, BlackRock's Global Head of Market Development, recently publicly supported the CLARITY Act. Her point is: set the rules quickly—protect investors, but don't rush all new market opportunities out of the U.S.
What exactly is the CLARITY Act for? Simply put, it means first clarifying who actually manages a coin.
Many U.S. coins have been listed for years, and even the project teams themselves may not be able to clearly tell whether they are securities or commodities. The SEC feels it should manage it on its own, and the CFTC has its own scope. In the end, it often takes until lawsuits and lawsuits are over for everyone to know the answer.
CLARITY wants to first define a basic division of labor:
The project team raises funds by selling tokens, with issuance and disclosure mainly managed by the SEC; Digital goods on mature blockchains are mostly handled by the CFTC. Exchanges and brokers also need to register. How to keep customers' money, whether it can be kept with the platform's own money, and who is responsible if problems arise—all must be clearly stated in advance.
So don't mistake this as the US preparing to open up crypto trading. There may be more rules in the future, but we will finally know who to turn to and what standards to follow.
It's actually easy to understand why BlackRock is in such a hurry.
Its $BTC and $ETH products have already been sold, and tokenized funds like BUIDL have also been launched. Products have entered the market, money has come in, but the underlying rules are still being changed back and forth. For a large institution like BlackRock, strict regulation can also be a cost. The rules only change every few months when it's truly uncomfortable. Because every time you make a product, you have to consider whether it might suddenly be stopped in the future.
This bill has not yet been officially implemented.
Last year, it passed the House of Representatives by a vote of 294 to 134, and in May this year, the Senate Banking Committee advanced another step, but the subsequent full House vote and other procedures are not yet complete. Senate Majority Leader Thune recently also said he might not make it before the August recess. At this moment, BlackRock stepped forward, seemingly urging Congress: Stop arguing and hurry up and set the rules. As for whether this news will immediately boost the market, I think I'm overthinking it.
What truly affects what US exchanges dare to list in the future, how project teams issue tokens to raise funds, and whether Wall Street dares to move more assets on-chain. Some smaller altcoins may face even more difficulties, because disclosure and compliance require money, and many projects may not be able to afford them.
I think the most interesting thing about this is that Wall Street used to be at the doorstep researching whether you could enter the crypto world. Now that the people have come in, they start to complain that the renovation progress is too slow. BlackRock started urging for rules, indicating it had more business to do.$BTC has fallen back to around $63,500, touching approximately a 10-day low. Current pressure comes from two paths: the sharp decline in Asian tech stocks suppressing risk appetite, and the market reassessing rate hike risks ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.
Whether BTC can stop falling in the short term depends on observing US Treasury yields, the dollar, and Nasdaq futures, not just on-chain indicators. If the Fed maintains rates and signals less hawkishness than expected, risk assets may recover; if there is an unexpected rate hike or continued emphasis on inflation, BTC and high-valuation tech stocks may continue to face pressure in tandem.
#CXMTDebutShockwave #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch
$BTC $ETH 🟣 [BEATUSDT July 28, 20:35 Analysis]
Current price: 3.1343 | 24-hour decline: -30.55% | Mark price: 3.1346
📊 Key locations
Level: Price
Resistance at 3.8200 / 4.2438
Current 3.1343
Support levels are at 2.9320 / 2.5562 / 2.4500
📈 Detailed explanation of indicators
· KDJ: K=27.98, D=32.56, J=18.82 (oversold). From J=98.47 (extremely overbought) at 13:40 on July 28 to 18.82, it has dropped sharply into the oversold zone. The K value at 27.98 is close to oversold, the D value at 32.56 is still declining, and the J value is turning upward to form a golden cross. A J-value below 20 means short-term downward momentum is basically released.
· STOCHRSI： 16.71，MASTOCHRSI3=11.20。 STOCHRSI has fallen below 20 and entered the oversold zone, with a MASTOCHRSI3 of only 11.20, indicating extreme oversold momentum, indicating severe oversold momentum and a continuous accumulation of rebound probabilities.
· Bollinger Bands: Prices at 3.1343 are trading above the lower band at 2.5562, about 22.6% above the lower band. The middle band is at 3.4000, deviating about 7.8%. After breaking below the middle band, the price has been continuously declining, approaching the lower band's support zone. Opening sharply expanded, and volatility soared. The middle band at 3.40 has shifted from support to resistance.
· Trading volume: 24H volume 108 million BEAT, total volume 340 million. Volume continued to increase from a high of 4.73 to 2.45, accelerating panic clearing, often corresponding to short-term bottom areas.
Multi-cycle returns: Today -30.54%, 7-day +31.84%, 30-day +24.51%, 90-day +446.61%, 180-day +1,199.94%. After a 180-day surge of 12 times, it has pulled back deeply, which is a typical example of aggressive sell-offs.
📉 Judgment
BEAT plunged from a high of 4.7325 to a low of 2.45, a drop of 48%, nearly halved, before rebounding slightly to 3.13. J value fell from 98.47 to 18.82, STOCHRSI = 16.71 oversold, weakening short-term downward momentum. However, the 180-day +1199% profit-taking rate remains, and the medium-term trend has deteriorated. The 2.45-2.93 area is a strong support zone; if it holds, an oversold rebound may occur.
✅ Strategy
Long position (oversold rebound strategy): go long at 2.90-3.00, stop loss at 2.70, target 3.40-3.60-3.80, fast in and out.
Short position (main strategy): Short on rebound 3.50-3.80, stop loss at 4.00, target 3.00-2.80-2.50.
⚠️ Risk
1. 180-day gain: 1199%, with heavy profit-taking, and selling pressure persists.
2. Fell from 4.73 to 2.45, a drop of 48%, with potential short-term technical rebound.
3. New coins face severe market control, with sharp volatility and unpredictable directions.
4. For positions of 1-2%, always include stop-loss positions.
Summary: BEAT plunged from 4.73 to 2.45, dropping 48% before rebounding to 3.13! J=18.82 oversold + STOCHRSI=16.71 oversold, short-term oversold rebound demand appears! Go long on 2.90-3.00 for a rebound, target 3.40-3.80, stop loss at 2.70! The mid-term trend has broken; continue to short on the rebound between 3.50-3.80!One thing I've always said about $SUI: a breakout won't be confirmed until stablecoins turn around. They kept flowing throughout the rebound, during the Hashi launch, and in every event. That was the only box that stayed red.
This weekend, things have taken a turn for the worse. Stablecoin supply rose +3.4% this week, bottoming out and beginning to climb. TVL is stable at 432M.
This was the first real signal of confirmation I had been waiting for. Not the price. Not an announcement. It's the indicator I said would reveal the truth.
I won't bottom out just because of a week's green market. But this is the most important box I mentioned, and it flipped over.
Next thing on the board: another unlock on August 1. 13.7 million SUI, about $9.7 million, or 0.14% of supply. On the same scale as July 1st, it was an irrelevant event. CT will try to render it terribly. It's just noise. The position size remains unchanged.
Watching whether stablecoins continue to climb before unlocking. If so, that's the real signal, indicating that funds are entering supply.Ethereum's critical threshold has come again.
The top chart shows the Ethereum price, and the middle image shows TOTAL3 / ETH. D, and below is the Ethereum RSI and BTC. D / ETH. D ratio.
In 2022, November 2025, and today, we are all significantly closer to the same area.
In the past, when Ethereum touched this trend support, the RSI was in the bottom area and TOTAL3/ETH. When the D ratio is at the top level, Ethereum begins to rise strongly.
Today, this structure has once again appeared before us.
Ethereum's price is at an upward support level.
The RSI is at the bottom area that has previously triggered reactions.
TOTAL3 / ETH. The D ratio is testing key trend support.
BTC. D / ETH. The D ratio has reached the area where Ethereum had previously experienced a favorable turnaround.
If this structure functions as it has in the past, Ethereum could usher in a new wave of gains.
Especially TOTAL3 / ETH. The trend support in the D ratio holds, which is the most important tracking detail for me.
For now, I'm just observing. But we may be on the threshold of Ethereum's strong restart.
$ETH #ETH #EthereumI really think the July rate hike is a bit outrageous, but it probably won't happen. But looking back at my previous rate hike cycle during the 2000 internet bubble and the semiconductor market peaking, July is indeed the corresponding time for rate hikes.
$SKHYNIX
$BTC
$SPCX Now is not the time to chase highs; it's a phase of game theory where emotional peaks and arbitrage sell-offs hit simultaneously.
Guess what, those who made a fortune on Changxin's IPO day—are they still smiling today?
I've been watching the market all day, and honestly, I feel a bit cold inside. Today's wave can't be explained by technicals; it's a battle between sentiment and chip distribution. Changxin Technology's STAR Market debut soared directly to 49.5, up 471%, with a market cap hitting 3.31 trillion and turnover breaking 100 billion. Winning the lottery nets 20,000 per share, with 9.42 million accounts frantically snapping up shares—but the more retail investors get excited, the calmer institutions remain.
This isn't a simple IPO; it's the first shot in the global storage landscape shifting from a duopoly to a three-way battle.
Let's first look at the derivatives structure—that's where you can truly understand what the money is betting on.
- On Changxin's side, the turnover rate on the first day is extremely high, but the float is very small, with a large amount of chips locked by institutions. This means liquidity premium has been pushed to an absurd height by sentiment, and once sentiment fades, selling pressure will come down like an avalanche.
- On the other side, SK Hynix raised 26.5 billion on Nasdaq, Samsung has placed 200 billion orders with Broadcom, and Nvidia and SK have locked over 500 billion in HBM priority rights. These are real, locked-in AI high-end orders, not retail investor sentiment-driven hype on the A-share market.
- In the derivatives market, Changxin's options implied volatility has reached historical extremes, while Samsung and Hynix's volatility is actually declining. This indicates capital is shifting from "betting on domestic substitution stories" to "betting on AI demand certainty."
What is the market trading? Not whether Changxin can catch up with the Korean giants, but how long the premium on the "domestic substitution" narrative can hold.
Bullish logic: Changxin's general-purpose DRAM (DDR5, LPDDR5X) indeed has a supply gap; overseas giants are shifting capacity to the high-margin HBM, leaving a real void in consumer electronics and basic servers. With policy support and capacity approaching Micron's level, the domestic substitution logic is solid. If Changxin's HBM samples go smoothly, it will be the next trillion-level variable.
Bearish risks: HBM is still in the sample delivery stage; the most lucrative AI segment is not yet accessible. The P/E ratio is over 30, while Samsung, Hynix, and Micron's TTM is around 20. A good company doesn't mean you have to rush in on day one; starting with inflated expectations often means paying the price later. More harshly, once China expands production, general-purpose DRAM prices will inevitably loosen; former Samsung executives have warned of a possible cycle flip in 2027. When prices fall, computing costs drop—what does this mean for AI-related crypto assets relying on the "computing power scarcity" narrative? Is it good or bad? Don't just shout bull.
In summary: sentiment will eventually fade; those who truly stand firm are the ones with capacity landing, solid performance, and sound logic. Those shouting for tenfold gains while watching the market now are most likely just carrying institutions' water.
- The above is market observation only and does not constitute any investment advice.*
$BTC $ETH $STORJ #Storage #AI #DomesticSubstitution 📉 Oil Is Falling… So Why Did Bitcoin Drop Too?
At first glance, lower oil prices should be supportive for risk assets. But markets don't move on headlines alone—they move on expectations.
The recent decline in $BTC is a classic example of "buy the rumor, sell the news."
Prediction markets have already been pricing in a high probability of a US–Iran ceasefire before the end of August. As optimism built, Bitcoin rallied back above $65K over the weekend.
Then came Monday.
Instead of extending higher, BTC fell from above $65.6K to below $64K, triggering liquidations across the market as traders took profits and sentiment cooled.
The bigger shift is that the market's focus has changed.
Last week, geopolitics and oil prices were driving price action.
This week, attention has turned back to the Federal Reserve.
With the upcoming FOMC meeting, interest rate expectations are once again taking center stage. Even with easing oil prices, markets remain cautious about the possibility of a more hawkish Fed.
🟢 Bullish factors
• Lower oil prices may help reduce short-term inflation pressures.
• US Treasury yields have eased from recent highs, offering some support for risk assets.
🔴 Bearish factors
• Much of the ceasefire optimism was likely already priced in.
• Geopolitical risks haven't disappeared, and negotiations remain uncertain.
• Expectations around the Fed continue to create uncertainty for both stocks and crypto.
For now, Bitcoin appears to be trading less on geopolitical headlines and more on macroeconomic expectations.
The next major catalyst will likely come from the FOMC decision and guidance, which could determine whether the current pullback is simply profit-taking—or the start of a larger move.
#CXMTDebutShockwave #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch
$BTC $ETH $AEON Six circuit breakers in two months! South Korea's stock market has experienced its worst summer,
The chain crash on Hynix triggered a liquidation storm
In just over seven months of 2026, the Korean stock market has triggered circuit breakers eight times this year, with the index falling more than 35% from its peak. A rare record of volatility in the history of South Korea's capital market. Especially in the past two months, circuit breaker alerts have repeatedly sounded, with repeated sharp drops continuously undermining investor confidence.
From the world's strongest stock market to eight circuit breakers, the storage giants dragged down the market
The Korean stock market has hit a circuit breaker again.
On July 28, South Korea's KOSPI index suffered a sharp drop, plunging more than 11% intraday and triggering the market's circuit breaker. This is also the first time since April 14 that the index has fallen below 6,000 points, with a cumulative drop of more than 35% from the stage high set in June.
If the two circuit breakers in March were mainly influenced by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions and rising global risk aversion, then the six consecutive circuit breakers since June have more exposed the structural risks accumulated by the Korean stock market itself. Among them, the sharp adjustment in the semiconductor sector has become a key factor undermining market confidence.
The biggest driver of the current rise in the Korean stock market comes from the AI boom, and now the market is also suffering the backlash of the cooling of AI. In particular, the sharp losses of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have become key factors dragging down the market.
These two semiconductor giants once accounted for over 60% of the KOSPI index, contributing most of the previous gains in the Korean stock market and helping the Korean market become one of the world's best-performing markets. At the same time, however, the market's heavy reliance on the semiconductor sector has also amplified the vulnerability of the Korean stock market.
Now, as the market begins to reassess the sustainability of AI capital expenditure, the growth potential for high-end memory chip demand, and future changes in supply pressures, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are the first to be hit.
In the past month, Samsung Electronics has dropped about 31.2% cumulatively, SK Hynix has dropped over 14.8%, and SK Hynix's Overseas Depositary Receipts (ADRs) even fell below their issue price less than a month after listing.
To some extent, the Korean stock market is experiencing a "semiconductor boom and failure" scenario.
Hynix's on-chain contract crashed, with an $867 order triggering a Hyperliquid liquidation storm
While SK Hynix's spot market has been experiencing intense volatility, the on-chain perpetual contract market has also experienced an unusual "insertion."
According to HyperInsight monitoring, at 7 a.m. Beijing time today, the price of SKHX perpetual contracts on the Hyperliquid platform suddenly plunged from $1,128.2 to $927, a short-term drop of 17.9%, triggering a large number of high-leverage long positions being liquidated.
Data shows that the nominal value of open interest in this contract plummeted from about $508 million to $388 million, with long liquidations approaching $80 million within four hours, even surpassing Binance during the same period.
The direct trigger for this flash crash was an abnormal pre-market order of only about $867 for the Korean NXT market. Due to low pre-market liquidity, this small order that fully complies with trading rules unexpectedly became an important source of external price data and was adopted by the Trade.XYZ oracle system.
Subsequently, the SK Hynix perpetual contract mark price on Hyperliquid followed suit. In high-leverage derivatives markets, a brief shift in the marked price can also trigger large-scale liquidations. As long positions were forced to close, selling pressure intensified, eventually triggering a chain reaction.
In contrast, the impact on Binance's market has been relatively limited. Before the main market opened in South Korea, Binance mainly used its internal pricing mechanism and did not immediately switch to external quotes, thus avoiding a similar scale of chain liquidations. However, due to arbitrage trading in the market, SK Hynix's perpetual contract prices were still affected and experienced a simultaneous decline.
This blunder was not market manipulation, but rather a butterfly effect triggered by insufficient liquidity, external price input mechanisms, and high leverage.
In mature spot markets, a transaction under $1,000 usually has little noticeable impact. However, in on-chain derivatives markets that rely on external price inputs, small trades may influence the marking price through oracle mechanisms and further pass on to large leveraged positions.
As the Korean stock market rides a "roller coaster," foreign capital is also accelerating its withdrawal. JPMorgan recently released a South Korean stock market strategy report pointing out that foreign capital has seen a net outflow of over $110 billion from the Korean stock market this year, setting a new record for the largest outflow in Asia's single market history. About 90% of these are concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Market confidence has declined, prompting South Korean investors to turn to overseas markets again. According to Seoul Economic Daily, net purchases of US stocks this month exceeded 5 trillion won. According to Seibro, the securities information portal of Korea's securities depository and clearing institution, from the 1st to the 27th of this month, domestic investors net bought nearly $3.59 billion in US stocks, about 5.5 times the net purchase amount for the entire month of June, with funds mainly flowing into semiconductor and technology stocks.
From the global star market driven by the AI cycle dividend, to today's consecutive circuit breakers, leverage clearing, and foreign capital withdrawal, the Korean stock market is currently undergoing a brutal but necessary repricing. It's often said that storage supply cannot meet demand
Sorry, as long as we Chinese enter the market, true supply shortage does not exist.
The rise of Changxin Storage is not just about adding another storage manufacturer, but about the global storage industry starting to reprice itself.
Samsung falls, Hynix falls, and US storage stocks also fall; essentially, what is falling is the future profit expectations.
Some say: Isn't the A-share market also falling?
If you think this way, your perspective is short-sighted. When has China's industrial development ever required deep, long-term binding with stock prices?
Stock prices can fall, valuations can be cut, but this does not affect the rise of an industry.
The greatest ability of the Chinese people has never been to invent an industry, but to turn a high-profit industry into one that ordinary people can afford to use. Date: 2026-07-28
Positioning: Short
1. Today's execution score
Before issuing the order, I asked, "Is this a system signal?" ✅
A hard stop-loss order ✅ is set at the same time as the order opening
No manual closing ✅ of positions during the holding period was done in advance
No new orders ✅ were opened within 1 hour after the stop-loss was swept
After the stop-loss was swept, there was no retaliatory order ✅ opening
After making a profit, they don't open new orders immediately on the same day
The waiting period for open positions never leads to orders out of boredom
Position calculations ✅ are completed before placing orders
After the market closed, I wrote a psychological record ✅
Make sure you get enough sleep before ordering ✅
Today's total execution score: 8 points
Explanation of point deductions: None
2. Psychological Records (Genuine Feelings, Not Beautified)
Last night, US stocks suddenly plunged, turning from gains to losses, but Bitcoin was very strong, only slightly pulling back to 64,400. Within an hour, a large bullish candlestick appeared, and there was a signal of following the rise but not the fall. I opened a long position in my sentiment account at 64,750, with a stop loss at 64,000. However, the rebound hit 65,100 and then stalled. At this point, the US stock market also began to stop falling and rebound, but Bitcoin did not continue to rise; instead, it seemed to follow the decline rather than the rise. I observed this but did not close the position; instead, I thought this time would be different. Breaking below the M top in the end was already a clear downtrend, but I still chose to close my computer and stop watching. As a result, Bitcoin dropped to a low of around 63,000, and long positions were stopped out.
3. Tomorrow's Plan (only write key positions, not forecasts)
Overhead: 63,800-64,000 (rebound resistance), 64,700-65,000 (divide between bulls and bears)
Below: 63,000-61,200
No chasing orders before the FOMC, no betting on direction. Let the market emerge on its own, wait for confirmation of signals before moving.
4. Today's Summary (in one sentence)
Why has this holding bias resurfaced? Is it because they've been out of the position for too long? Or is it because of continuous losses that they can't accept?$SNDK Fierce correction data released! SanDisk's maximum drawdown is 46%! Before the Federal Reserve's rate decision is implemented, the inflection point for the storage sector has not yet arrived
Many traders began to speculate: the deep decline in the storage sector means it has already lost its value, so it is worth buying the bottom in batches.
Let's first look at some cold data:
According to BIT (bit.com) market data, Micron has pulled back 29% from its peak, SanDisk has dropped as much as 46%, Seagate has pulled back 29%, and Western Digital has pulled down 38%; DRAM storage ETFs have pulled down over 35%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has dropped 21%.
Despite the huge decline, bottom-fishing voices have emerged one after another, but the core constraints have not been lifted. Entering too early still carries the risk of continued bottoming!
1. The core underlying logic of this round of deep adjustment
1. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations remain the biggest shackle
With the interest rate decision on July 30 just around the corner, the market continues to debate the timing of rate cuts. As long as Walsh takes a hawkish stance and the high interest rate environment continues, valuations of growth tech stocks will remain under pressure. The storage sector saw huge gains in the early period, becoming the direction where capital prioritizes realizing profits.
2. AI storage expectations are well priced
The AI server SSD demand expectations that previously drove SanDisk and Micron prices have been fully reflected in the previous stock price. In the short term, lacking new major positive factors to continue driving growth, funds naturally chose to cash in.
3. Geopolitical risks disrupt inflation expectations
The Middle East situation has been repeatedly volatile, with oil prices rebounding at any time to drive up inflation, further limiting the Fed's room for easing and indirectly suppressing valuation recovery in the storage sector.
2. Two major scenario simulations for the market outlook
Scenario 1: The Fed maintains a hawkish stance (high probability)
With rate cut expectations postponed again, it is difficult for the storage sector to see a sustained reversal. The current rebound is merely a technical correction from oversold stock. The rebound is a window to reduce positions, and the oscillating bottoming trend will continue. Do not rashly assume the bottom has been established.
Scenario 2: Sending a clear signal of a rate cut (low probability)
If the stance leans toward easing, risk assets will see a recovery in sentiment. But it's important to recognize that the sector has accumulated a large number of trapped units, with heavy selling pressure above. The road to recovery won't happen overnight, and even after a big rally, there will still be repeated tug-of-war.
3. Traders' practical approaches
Holders: Take advantage of the oversold rebound to optimize your positions; don't blindly hold on waiting for a break-even;
Wait-and-see funds: Say no to heavy left-side bottom-fishing! Patiently wait for the Federal Reserve's rate decision to be implemented and signals of sustained stabilization appear in the market before making further plans;
Short-term traders: Only suitable for betting on short-term technical rebounds, strictly set stop-losses, and never mistake rebounds for trend reversals.
After experiencing a maximum drawdown of 46%, SanDisk—do you think the rate decision can start a recovery rally?
Share your thoughts in the comments section! It is recommended to bookmark and continuously track the track fluctuations brought by Federal Reserve policies.
⚠️ Risk Warning: This article is for market logic analysis only and does not constitute any trading advice. US semiconductor stocks are highly volatile, with high geopolitical and policy uncertainties, so it is essential to strictly control positions and trade rationally.
$SNDK $MU $SOXX
#韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share market on its first day CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) is a Bitcoin cycle valuation metric proposed by well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo. Historically, it has been widely used to predict the macro bottom of Bitcoin's major cycle. The standard formula for calculating CVDD is as follows:
Core Variable Breakdown: Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)
Calculation method: CDD = BTC quantity × days held
For example: if a new address buys 10 Bitcoins and holds them for 1 day, then transfers out those 10 Bitcoins, its CDD is 10.
If an old address holds 10 Bitcoins for 1800 days and then transfers out those 10 Bitcoins, its CDD is 1800.
CDD represents the current time value of BTC realized CDD*Price (the USD value of BTC burned by Bitian)
The coin-day burn generated by each transfer is multiplied by the Bitcoin dollar unit price at the time of the transaction, converting realized time value into actual dollar value. ∑ (CDD * Price) (Historical Cumulative Value)
From Bitcoin's Genesis Block to the present, everything that has occurred has been converted into USD-denominated Bitcoin time value. Days Since Genesis
Total number of days the Bitcoin network has operated since its inception: 6,000,000 (constant factor)
WilAckman's current core holdings:
🔹 Microsoft: 21x Forward PE buy, believes OpenAI's $200 billion equity value has not been priced in by the market
🔹 Amazon: 28x PE, the fastest cloud business growth in 15 quarters
🔹 Meta: 18x P/E, the cheapest among the three major holdings
🔹 Uber: Still holding positions His strategy: find quality companies that have been underpriced due to short-term concerns, then hold heavy positions.
Additional note: The above data is based on Ackman's Q1 2026 13F filing and recent public statements; some holdings are valued at the time of disclosure. High trading volume may be accompanied by price fluctuations. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. $MSFT $AMZN $META $GOOGL $SNDK $MU$GRASS （Grass）
GRASS's decline is a direct result of the community's expectations being completely dashed—when the market waits for good news full of hope, disappointment is met instead.
The drop was directly triggered by the "Token Holder and Network Participant Conference Call" on July 7, 2026. Market expectations before the meeting pushed prices higher, but the content of the meeting left the community deeply disappointed:
· Rewards changed to USDC payments: Bandwidth contributors will receive rewards from GRASS tokens to USDC. This directly reduces the immediate demand for GRASS tokens.
· No Phase Two Airdrop: The market originally had very high expectations for the distribution of about 170 million GRASS, but the meeting made it clear that no new token airdrops would take place.
· Extremely low user returns: Many users who have run nodes for months or even years receive only a few dollars in return, sparking widespread dissatisfaction.
In addition, the upcoming token unlock continues to contribute to selling pressure expectations. The team's forecast, which predicted about $52 million in revenue for the second half of 2026, was completely drowned out by negative community sentiment.July FOMC Meeting Preview: Is a Rate Hike Near or Far?
On July 28 and 29 Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve held its FOMC meeting, with the interest rate decision set to take effect at 2 a.m. Beijing time on July 30. Affected by the turbulent situation in the Middle East, the risk of an inflation rebound has recently increased, which may make this interest rate meeting the core focus of this week's capital policy.
Section One: Market Outlook — Reference to CME FedWatch Preview Data FedWatch is a free tool launched by CME Group, which calculates the probability of interest rate changes based on interest rate futures trading data. By observing this data, we can often understand market capital's bets on the Fed's interest rate direction.
CME Federal Reserve Observations on July Rate Hike Likelihood: Currently, the U.S. federal funds rate remains in the 3.5%-3.75% range. Based on current market pricing, the probability of a rate hike to 3.75%-4% (a 25bp hike) is 37.9%, and the market expects a slight increase in the rate of increase.
Second Section: The Biggest Change! The logic of interpreting the eras of Wash and Powell is completely different
During the previous chairman Powell's term, he was used to sending guiding signals and was willing to hint to the market, so people could use this to infer the general timeline for future interest rate trends.
However, after the new chairman Walsh took office, his communication style changed significantly: he deliberately remained cautious, refused to give early forecasts of future interest rate trends, and was unwilling to clearly define interest rate paths. Overall, policy adjustments were entirely in line with economic data and shifts flexibly. Therefore, regarding Walsh's speech at the July policy meeting press conference, we should not rigidly nitpick hints about "when rates will be cut, when will rate hikes, or how rates will move in the future?" Instead, we should focus on the following directions: (1) How Walsh assesses current inflationary pressures;
(2) What is the attitude toward the current employment situation in the United States and economic resilience;
(3) Ideas and current progress on future Fed reforms. A list of recent public statements by Walsh (July 15 — Senate hearing):
"I'm not satisfied with any inflation indicator." "The labor market looks quite good, but the inflation outlook is not optimistic."
"We will review our tools, including balance sheets and interest rates, to see if adjustments are needed to combat inflation."
"The inflation rate consistently above 2% over the past five years is itself a failure by the Fed, and zero tolerance for persistently high inflation must be maintained."
"Measures to curb inflation include interest rate tools, and we have the capability to do that." ......
Third: Locking in inflation, US June PCE data
PCE is the core inflation gauge closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, and the latest data for this period will be released simultaneously on the evening of the 30th. Another inflation indicator, the June CPI, has shown signs of decline due to previous adjustments in oil prices. US June Core PCE Price Index month-on-month previous 0.3% expected 0.2% actual ? (Announced at 8:30 PM on July 30)昨日ETF资金背道而驰：BTC撤1160万，ETH吸1170万，机构在换仓？
昨晚美股ETF收盘后数据挺有意思——比特币现货ETF：净流出约 1160 万美元，终结此前连续流入势头，部分资金从IBIT等老产品撤出；
以太坊现货ETF：净流入约 1170 万美元，几乎对称回补，ETH系产品逆势吃进筹码。
一进一出，差额不大，但方向信号很直白：
BTC：宏观利率预期反复+美债收益率抬头，机构短期降风险敞口；
ETH：质押退出队列清零、超2.5万ETH排队进场，链上基本盘反而更硬，ETF资金顺势切过去。
现在盘面就是BTC守区间，ETH抢叙事：
BTC没破位但上攻缺量，ETF流出若连日放大，6.4w–6.6w震荡区会被反复磨；
ETH有RWA+质押+现货ETF三重叙事托着，资金愿意给溢价，但还没到全面普涨。🚨 Storage stocks are under pressure—but is this a structural shift or simply profit-taking?
Memory names continued to weaken, with investors reassessing valuations after CXMT's highly anticipated IPO and growing discussion around China's expanding role in the DRAM market.
📉 Market reaction:
• SanDisk extended its decline
• SK Hynix remained under pressure
• Micron outperformed relative to peers but still traded lower
• SK Hynix ADR also slipped
Much of the concern centers on the idea that China's memory industry could become a stronger long-term competitor. Reports that Apple is evaluating CXMT memory products have added to that narrative, although any commercial impact remains uncertain.
At the same time, it's worth remembering that many storage stocks entered this pullback after enormous gains.
📊 Strong fundamentals remain in place:
• Micron recently reported robust revenue growth and optimistic forward guidance.
• SanDisk has continued to post healthy profitability.
• Several memory names are still up substantially year-to-date, making profit-taking a reasonable explanation alongside competitive concerns.
👀 The next major catalyst:
SK Hynix's upcoming earnings report.
Investors will be watching management's comments on:
• AI-driven memory demand
• Pricing outlook
• Supply growth
• Competitive dynamics, including CXMT
• Expectations for the 2027 memory market
The market's reaction may depend less on the headline numbers and more on management's outlook.
The key question now:
Is this the beginning of a longer valuation reset—or simply a healthy correction after an exceptional run?
#CXMTDebutShockwave #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch
$BTC $ETH $AEON #韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股
The listing of Changxin symbolizes the official entry of domestic storage into the capital expansion phase, challenging the long-term valuation expectations of overseas manufacturers;
However, the recent sharp drop in the Korean stock market is essentially due to profit-taking at the peak of the AI rally + risk aversion before the Federal Reserve meeting + multiple resonances from the fragile structure of the Korean market. Changxin is merely an emotional catalyst, not the root cause of the decline.
Reasons for the crash:
1. Preceding trigger: US AI tech stocks cooled down in advance
2. Restructuring of industry competition expectations (emotional impact brought by Changxin's listing)
3. Innate structural defects of the Korean market (amplifying volatility)
4. Short-term event disturbances
Samsung and SK Hynix are about to release earnings reports, and the market is preemptively speculating on performance uncertainties; combined with the previous continuous surge in the storage sector, a massive amount of high-level profit-taking positions have accumulated, leading to concentrated sell-offs at any negative news. #baby Recently, I've been thoroughly focused on @babylonlabs_io Chapter 6 of the official document about stablecoin mechanisms, and ended up breaking out in a cold sweat. In regular lending trades, the margin call line is fixed; when prices drop, everyone rushes in to grab shares. However, the wording for this project was extremely vague, mentioning only the phrase "BTC price fell below safety standards" before initiating liquidation. So here's the question: when faced with such an extremely extreme "Heaven and Earth Needle" market, can liquidators take advantage of unclear rules to act directly? This is exactly the same as the tactic banks used during the 2008 financial crisis to confiscate properties: contracts are word-fixed, retail investors panic at the crash and are forced to liquidate, not even able to hold out and wait for a rebound.
The most critical design is in Part Ten of the document. The system parameters were actually decided by $BABY token holders' votes. No doubt, the liquidation standards and response times are definitely within the voting range. This is a perfect harvesting vicious cycle: those who liquidate big players are often $BABY heavy players, and they can band together to suddenly raise the original 120% red line to 150% through proposals. Using their own modified methods to confiscate others' collateral assets, after making a fortune, they move to the secondary market to accumulate $BABY and further amplify their own influence. This doesn't require external hacker attacks; the system's own mechanism is indirectly encouraging big players to do evil.
Don't forget, this stablecoin will be circulating across all online chains in the future. Once you enter various protocols to earn unlimited profits, one day the underlying parameters are suddenly changed by a whale, triggering a chain stampede, with all downstream pools doomed to perish. We all dislike the lack of transparency in USDT reserves and believe that only pure BTC collateral is reliable. But if all the power of life and death is controlled by a few people at the top of the interest chain, this thing is at best just a "private money printer" disguised as blockchain.
Veteran players know the rules: everything is DYOR. Don't think that having a "BTC backing" means you can sleep easy; even the toughest underlying assets can't withstand the hidden rules of the rules. Regarding such life-and-death parameters, should they be left to community voting or locked in the underlying contract forever? Everyone, share your views in the square. #eth $ETH$BTC volatility has approached historic lows, with the current one-year real volatility at only 42%, significantly narrowing compared to 120% in 2017 and 80% in 2021.
The essence of declining volatility is a signal that crypto assets are maturing: ETFs bring in a large amount of long-term institutional capital, deepening market liquidity, allowing them to absorb short-term price shocks, while retail investors continue to expand, the chip structure becomes more dispersed, and unilateral sharp rises and falls are becoming increasingly rare."Micron (MU): From AI Darling to Short Seller's Hunt, the Bubble is Bursting"
Falling from $1,255 to $800+, a drop of over 36% in one month. This plunge in Micron is not a simple "correction" but a structural reversal of bullish and bearish forces. Short sellers are fully hunting this former "AI Storage King."
🔴 1. Big short seller Burry keeps increasing his position, the signal is very clear
Michael Burry, the prototype from the movie "The Big Short," is fully shorting the semiconductor sector.
On July 1, he first shorted Micron at $1,051.87, warning that the semiconductor sector would face about a 30% correction. On July 25, he acted again—adding to his Micron short at $933.86, increasing his Nvidia short at $210.28, and adding to his Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) short at $535.83. He also maintained short positions in Tesla and Palantir and continued holding Nasdaq 100 ETF put options.
Burry explicitly stated that combining SOXX shorts and put options forms a large position in his portfolio.
He accurately predicted the 2008 subprime crisis. When someone like him treats semiconductor shorts as a "large position," what are you hesitating for?
🔴 2. Rise of Chinese memory chips, Micron's moat is collapsing
ChangXin Memory Technologies surged over 466% on its first day of STAR Market listing on July 27. By Q1 2026, ChangXin's global DRAM market share will reach 8%, firmly ranking fourth worldwide. Monthly capacity will reach 350,000 wafers by year-end, closely approaching Micron's 385,000 wafers.
Micron's once impregnable "technology barrier" is being rapidly caught up. Nomura forecasts ChangXin's sales and net profit CAGR from 2026 to 2028 will reach 63% and 74%, respectively.
Meanwhile, Apple is lobbying the White House to use ChangXin and Yangtze Memory chips in overseas products to reduce costs. Micron's CEO has warned government officials: "Allowing Chinese memory companies to supply American tech firms could destroy the domestic US memory chip industry."
Micron is anxious—because it knows this is a real threat.
🔴 3. Capital is fully withdrawing from hardware, AI narrative is loosening
The memory chip sector is experiencing a collective stampede. On July 27, SanDisk plunged over 11%, SK Hynix ADR dropped over 7%, and Micron once fell over 5%.
The market is collectively questioning: "How much longer can AI capital expenditure keep burning?" The trend of capital shifting from hardware to software is accelerating. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has retraced 17% in July.
Micron's Q3 revenue is $41.5 billion, up 346% year-over-year, showing strong fundamentals. But the market focuses on expectations, not the past. After HBM capacity is fully sold out for 2026 and priced in, where is the next growth point?
📉 Technical aspect: If the $850 neckline breaks, the target points directly to $804
Micron hit an intraday low of $798 on July 17, with a recent maximum drawdown of 36%. The current price has fallen below the $900 round number, and $850 is the neckline support of the head and shoulders pattern. Once effectively broken, the technical target points directly to the previous low of $804-$806.
Among 45 analysts, 34 still rate "Buy," with an average target price of $1,486. But institutions like Citi have lowered targets to the $850-$900 range. The greater the divergence between bulls and bears, the more brutal the stampede once it breaks down.
💎 Summary
Micron's short logic chain is very complete:
Burry keeps increasing shorts (sentiment signal) → Rise of Chinese memory chips (fundamental threat) → Apple shifts to Chinese supply chain (order risk) → Capital withdraws from hardware (liquidity inflection) → Technical breakdown imminent (chip structure)
Five layers of bearish resonance, Micron's decline is far from over. $804 is not the end—once broken, the downside space will open to $650-$700.
Shorting Micron is one of the highest certainty trades in the current market.
---
The above is a personal review and analysis and does not constitute investment advice. US stock trading is highly volatile and risky; please control your position size and make decisions cautiously.After the Senate's latest schedule was released, my expectations for the implementation of the CLARITY Act this year have been further lowered.
The bill was not officially shelved or halted; its priority was significantly postponed: the Senate will now prioritize official nominations and sanctions bills against Russia, while crypto regulatory bills are temporarily out of the full House deliberation schedule.
Next week is the last week before the summer break on August 8. Even if you push the agenda in at the last minute, go through the launch procedures, debate, and amendments, and still reach the 60-vote threshold, time is completely tight. Majority leader Thune, who had originally aimed to complete the vote before the recess, has now settled for the next best possible approval process, even admitting that "the vote count has not yet been reached," bluntly exposing the current predicament of insufficient time and votes.
The new draft of the bill has been released, but the ethical provisions have yet to gain public support from the Democratic Party, leaving the two parties divided and the legislative space continuously shrinking.
On the market side of prediction, after the Democratic Party's criticism of the text, the probability of approval within the year dropped to a low of 31%, then slightly rebounded to 37%. After this negative outcome in the schedule was realized, the odds did not continue to decline, which does not mean legislative resistance has eased. If the August recess window is missed, Japan's parliamentary work in September will be limited. Coupled with the midterm elections approaching, the willingness of the two parties to compromise will only weaken. This year, the window left for advancing the bill is basically gone, and the difficulty of implementing it in 2026 is even greater than previously expected. #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 $VANRY (Vanar Chain) was previously called TVK, and after the rebranding, its brand packaging has indeed been fully upgraded. It mainly focuses on the hottest buzzwords right now: AI-driven, Layer 1 chain, Web3 gaming, plus an eco-friendly green energy ecosystem, occasionally partnering with traditional tech giants like Google Cloud or NVIDIA for cooperative marketing.
From the market performance and response, it is a typical narrative-driven token, with prices often surging sharply in a very short time, then followed by prolonged gradual declines or sideways consolidation. The overall market cap is in the tens of millions of dollars range, and liquidity can be easily manipulated by whales or large funds.
Personally, I think VANRY’s coin characteristics are very distinctive: the story is told very well, and the concepts are tightly aligned, but the key is whether its on-chain ecosystem can truly produce a few killer applications. Relying solely on overwhelming promotion and hype from partnerships with giants is hard to sustain the token price long-term. So chasing highs is extremely risky, while during prolonged declines at low levels, it’s better to observe appropriately. Amazon reports Q2 on July 30. Ignore the headline profit — watch free cash flow. 🧠
Q1 net income looked huge at $30.25B and $2.78 EPS, but $16.8B of that was a one-time Anthropic gain. That’s not AWS, retail, or ads.
The real signal is cash.
Operating cash flow is strong: TTM up 30% to $148.5B.
But free cash flow crashed from $25.9B to $1.2B YoY. Why? AI capex. Property & equipment spending jumped $59.3B for data centers, chips, and infrastructure.
So the core business is still printing money. The question for Q2: is that massive spend turning into AWS revenue and delivered assets, or just burning cash?
Also don’t just track AWS. Q1 operating profit was $23.85B: $14.16B from AWS, $8.27B from NA retail, $1.42B from international. Fulfillment, Prime Day, and margins matter too.
Post-earnings playbook: cash flow statement first. OCF minus capex = FCF. Then strip out investment gains from net income.
#DailyOrbit #FOMCRateWatch
#CXMTDebutShockwave Perspective | Good companies, good financial reports, bad stock prices can all happen at the same time
Corning $GLW delivered a financial report today that is hard to find any major flaws.
Looking at the stock price: it once fell 16.7% before the market opened.
Let's look at the financial report first:
• Core sales of $4.738 billion, up 17% year-over-year
• Core EPS of $0.78, up 30% year-over-year
• Optical communications revenue was $2.072 billion, up 32% year-over-year
• Enterprise network business grew by 65%
• Core operating margin rose to 20.9%
• Adjusted free cash flow of $1.42 billion
Q3 guidance is also solid: core sales of $4.9 billion to $5 billion, up about 16% year-over-year; Core EPS ranged from $0.85 to $0.89, up approximately 28% year-over-year.
This is not a poor financial report.
The problem is, it exceeded the company's guidance but did not surpass the story the market had already written into the stock price.
Corning's previous Q2 guidance was core sales of about $4.6 billion and core EPS of $0.73 to $0.77. Final sales were about 3% higher, with EPS just 1 cent above the guidance upper limit.
For an ordinary manufacturing company, that's already good enough;
But Corning is now trading AI optical communications, Meta, Amazon, Nvidia, and the rapid growth expected over the next four years.
The market no longer wants just to "cash out," but to continue raising the price upward.
Looking at it more closely, Corning's growth is also uneven:
• Optical communication: +32%
• Glass innovation: +1%
• Automotive business: +2%
• Life Sciences and Emerging Businesses: -15%
• Solar: Revenue +90%, but still a loss of $7 million
Currently, Corning is essentially driven by AI optical communication as its engine.
The company plans to increase annualized revenue from $20 billion at the end of 2026 to $30 billion by the end of 2028 and $40 billion by the end of 2030. This valuation depends not on a single quarter, but on continuous deliveries over the next four years.
Therefore, a strong earnings report only proves Corning is still in the plan but may not be enough to push the market up valuations again.
The financial report answers: Is the company operating well?
The answer to the stock price is: Is it better than the price already paid?
For stocks with high expectations, growth is not everything.
More importantly, it is important to see whether expectations can continue to be raised.#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
Hyperliquid's holdings have surpassed $11.5 billion: the product has crushed CEXs, but the cliff of token unstaking is just around the corner
After reviewing derivatives market data these past two days, one phenomenon is quite shocking: Hyperliquid's open interest (OI) has quietly surged to $11.5 billion, setting a new high. Not only does it firmly hold the world's second-largest perpetual contract exchange (just behind Binance), but 61% of its trading volume is actually tokenized US stock stocks like NVDA and MSFT.
Many still compare it to ordinary DEXs, but the reality is that this self-built L1 order book and AppChain vertical integration model has already dealt a dimensionality reduction blow to most second-tier CEXs in terms of live trading experience and asset types.
No gas fee drag, no cross-chain bridge jerks, directly integrating market maker depth and fast settlement into the on-chain foundation. It proves one thing: the crypto market is shifting from a stagnant "ghost town public chain" to a "cash cow app" that retains users through real transaction fees.
However, no matter how strong the product is, it doesn't mean you can buy tokens with your eyes closed at the current price.
In the coming days, Hyperliquid is facing its most dangerous chip test of the year—at the end of July, nearly $400 million in unstaking tokens will be released in concentrated release, with nearly $200 million of dormant tokens converted into liquidity on July 30 alone.
Anyone familiar with derivatives trading knows that institutions and early investors would never wait until the day of the pledge release to dump at market price. Hedge funds typically establish short positions in the futures market 24 to 48 hours before the uncollateral date to hedge risk, or use selling pressure expectations to lure short shakeouts.
This leads to an extremely awkward mismatch: the fundamentals are burning hot, but the short-term chip supply hangs by a blade.
Let me share some of my own trading arrangements:
As for $HYPE spot stock, I haven't taken a single share yet, and I definitely won't be a warrior to catch the flying knife before the big exam is released on July 30.
I will wait until this $400 million unpledge release pressure is fully absorbed on the market. If the price forms a stabilization structure with shrinking volume and turnover in the $38 to $42 range, then I will consider building spot positions in batches.
Buying strong rather than weak is the principle, but avoiding the chip shock of obvious cards is fundamental. Once the market has cleared out this wave of sell-off, the chips on the right side will truly be cost-effective.$BTC
Whenever the market starts secretly fantasizing about rate cuts, Fed officials jump in right on time to pour cold water on everyone's heads. This time was no exception.
Several Federal Reserve officials have recently spoken publicly, with surprisingly consistent words: inflation data fluctuates, so don't celebrate too soon; high interest rates may persist longer than you think. Simply put, it means—interest rate cuts should be delayed for a while, no rushing.
What does this mean for the crypto market and stock market? It meant the sword hanging over his head couldn't be taken off for now. A high interest rate environment is the "tightening curse" for risk assets: money becomes more expensive, funding costs increase, and naturally less hot money in the market. Institutions would rather put their money in risk-free areas with decent returns than risk plunging into highly volatile crypto circles.
Market expectations for rate cuts have been forced to gradually shift backward. I used to expect mid-year, but now it seems it might be until the end of the year, or even later. As long as this expectation does not clearly shift, risk assets will find it difficult to see true liquidity relaxation.
So, don't just focus on the candlestick charts—the mouths of those at the Federal Reserve are the biggest market remote. As long as they don't relent, we'll have to keep hanging out in tight liquidity.Big Tech AI capital expenditure divergence — market fragmentation after Microsoft/Meta/Google earnings reports
Core Data:
- The combined AI capex for the three companies will reach $725 billion in the coming year
- Moody's warns that "unprecedented" spending threatens credit quality
- Data center lease contracts piled up to $850 billion
- However, none of the three companies' earnings reports were slashed by Capex—Microsoft Cloud grew 30+, and Meta reported AI ad ROI for the first time
Two algorithms for the same number—just calculate when free cash flow will collapse, and calculate infrastructure in five years. Amazon Q2 is the final answer sheet.I just took a walk around the square and saw someone say, "The feast is over, the smart people have left, we'll pay the bill." This sounds quite resonant, but looking back—at the end of 2022, when BTC was at 16K, the same argument was the same. It was the same when I ground the bottom at 62K in September 2024. Every time it drops to the point where everyone is in despair, the bottom comes out.
Right now, at 63K, both bulls and bears are holding out. Bulls dare not increase their positions, bears dare not chase shorts, retail investors are cutting their meat, and veterans are watching the show. But I noticed a detail: ETH fell below 1900, KOSPI circuit breakers, and altcoins dropped like dogs—despite all these major negative factors, BTC was still holding steady at 63K. This indicates that funds are accumulating money in the shadows.
Once tomorrow's FOMC boots are set and uncertainty disappears, the pent-up emotions that have been suppressed for two months will be released, and the intensity will be significant. I don't guess the direction, but when I'm extremely pessimistic, staying patient is more important than being smart.I was originally watching how much Nvidia would fall, but then I turned my attention to the memory sector—MU, STX, and WDC all fell 7-9% in the past five days, even sharper than NVDA's -5%.
Isn't there a strong demand for AI? Storage chips are the hardware foundation for AI training. The simultaneous collapse of three companies does not mean individual stocks are hitting a pitfall, but rather that the industry is cooling down. Memory tends to fall first and is more worth watching than computing chips—it's the thermometer upstream in the industry chain.
Next time Micron, Seagate, and Western Digital move simultaneously, don't focus on NVDA for now.
The above does not constitute investment advice; please make judgments based on your own research.As the Middle East situation undergoes a brief military easing, international crude oil prices have experienced a sharp single-day plunge, and the three major US stock indices have shown clear divergence and sector rotation.
The decline in crude oil eased some inflationary pressures, causing US Treasury yields to fall in tandem, and funds were flowing back from defensive and energy sectors to high-beta consumer and technology sectors.
The core theme of Monday's U.S. stock market was "a sharp drop in crude oil caused by cooling geopolitical risks," which in turn triggered a capital redistribution of "short positions covering aviation/consumption, taking profits on energy, and waiting for tech giants' earnings reports."
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday. The market generally expects rates to remain unchanged, but the macro inflation path will still be closely constrained by subsequent political developments.
#韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share market on its first day I was originally watching how much Nvidia would fall, but then I turned my attention to the memory sector—MU, STX, and WDC all fell 7-9% in the past five days, even sharper than NVDA's -5%.
Isn't there a strong demand for AI? Storage chips are the hardware foundation for AI training. The simultaneous collapse of three companies does not mean individual stocks are hitting a pitfall, but rather that the industry is cooling down. Memory tends to fall first and is more worth watching than computing chips—it's the thermometer upstream in the industry chain.
Next time Micron, Seagate, and Western Digital move simultaneously, don't focus on NVDA for now.
The above does not constitute investment advice; please make judgments based on your own research.Why the most dangerous thing in a bull market isn't a crash, but a rebound after a crash
Leverage trading is layered, liquidation is done in batches, and rebounds are meant to escape your life, not to buy the dip
The logic is simple: leverage itself is graded: the first aggressive 2x and 3x aggressive positions, the relatively cautious 1.5x stable market, and many trapped positions that stubbornly hold out without stopping losses and forcing margin coverage
The first wave of sharp declines first shattered leverage, just like in this round in Korea, where brokerages sold without regard to cost, and then bottom-fishing funds entered the market to drive prices higher
But this is not a bottom; even a slight drop triggers the next batch of leveraged account liquidation lines, triggering a new round of forced liquidation and sell-off
Quote How FOMC Resolutions Are Transmitted to the Crypto Space: First Look at Policy Tools, Then BTC Volatility
The Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting has become a trending topic on OKX Planet, but the official resolution has not yet been released. At this point, two common mistakes often occur: mistaking the market price-implied probabilities for the committee's decision, or only looking at the interest rate headline after the statement is released without checking the balance sheet operations, economic descriptions, and press conference conditions. The following establishes the reading order after the official data release, without predicting the direction this time.
The first layer is the policy tools. The FOMC statement will explain the policy decisions, while the implementation note details the actual execution arrangements. If neither document changes, the market may still fluctuate due to wording or expectation differences; if operational details are adjusted, it cannot be summarized simply as "raise or lower." One should first record the formal targets, votes, and implementation tools, then compare them item by item with the June official statement.
The second layer is the reaction function. The statement usually discusses employment, inflation, and uncertainty about the outlook, while the chair's press conference may explain what subsequent data the committee needs. These are conditional judgments, not guarantees for the next meeting. The July schedule does not include the official asterisk used to mark the SEP, so no new economic projections or dot plots are expected to be released at this time; if the market cites old dot plots, the original date must be clearly indicated.
The third layer is cross-market transmission. Policy expectations can influence crypto assets through Treasury yields, the US dollar, financing costs, and risk appetite, but the intensity of each reaction varies. BTC rising does not necessarily mean the resolution is "dovish"; it could be due to prior market pricing, position covering, or other concurrent news; a decline cannot be explained by a single press conference alone. When interpreting, at least consider timing, trading volume, derivatives leverage, and major macro markets together.
The fourth layer is content timeliness. Articles published before the resolution are marked as pre-decision or live-trend; once the official documents appear, they immediately become invalid and are rewritten as result reports. Result reports only cite the Federal Reserve statement, implementation note, press conference materials, and subsequent official minutes; they do not cite anonymous sources or package traders' comments as policy facts. This avoids speculation being published half an hour later that is already outdated.
What is most useful to readers is not guessing a single price movement but knowing which evidence can change judgments: whether formal policy tools have changed, what wording changes exist in economic descriptions, whether votes are divided, and how the chair describes future conditions. After these four checks, then discuss liquidity and risk assets; if official documents do not support a narrative, maintain uncertainty.
As of the verification point, only the official meeting dates and June's existing materials can be confirmed; July's results are still pending release. Therefore, this article does not provide price direction, leverage advice, or so-called certainty probabilities. Once the resolution is officially released, the old article will immediately expire to avoid mixing pre-meeting frameworks with post-meeting facts on the same timeline.
The wording in the press conference also requires full context. The chair may discuss hypothetical scenarios when answering a single question and cannot have a single sentence taken out of context as a definitive policy path. Result reports citing the press conference will simultaneously indicate the question background and conditions; real-time paraphrases not confirmed by official transcripts will not be adopted. If the minutes are released later with dissenting opinions, they will be updated separately and not backfilled as information known on the resolution day.Today the market got hit hard and it wasn’t just crypto.
Over $1.4 trillion was wiped out across stocks, metals, and crypto combined.
So why the dump? A few things lined up at once.
First, everyone is de-risking ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision. No one wants to be caught wrong-footed.
Second, the Senate put the Clarity Act on the back burner to focus on other bills, and that uncertainty is weighing on digital assets.
Third, news about China ramping up DUV chipmaking is spooking tech investors with fears of more competition.
Fourth, people are starting to question the massive AI spending. Big bets, big doubts.
And fifth, USD/JPY is sitting near 164, which is fueling talk that the BOJ could step in any moment.
When you get Fed jitters, regulatory delays, chip competition, AI skepticism, and currency intervention fears all in one day, you get exactly this. A broad risk-off move.
This feels like traders hitting pause, not a full collapse. But until the Fed speaks and the dust settles, expect volatility.
Are you trimming risk or buying the dip?
#AIEarningsWatch #FOMCRateWatch #CXMTDebutShockwave #停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day
The oil price plunge coincided with the Federal Reserve's decision: a precise, time-sensitive policy coordination, with the bills all on the surface
WTI crude plunged 8.68% in a single day, with the timing of the pullback precisely three trading days before the Federal Reserve's July rate decision. Don't be misled by the narrative of "ceasefire and peaceful dawn"—this is essentially a precise coordination between geopolitics and monetary policy—using a temporary truce to smash the tail risks of energy inflation, shedding the Fed's hawkish baggage, and stabilizing the price base during the midterm elections—every step is at the critical juncture of policy demand.
1. A ceasefire is not the end; it is a tactical pause to serve inflation
This round of Middle East dététe did not sign a formal agreement or resolve any core issues over Iran's nuclear issue or control over shipping lanes; it was merely a tacit compromise between the US and Iran based on their own demands.
For the U.S., escalating conflict pushing oil prices above 100 yuan directly backfires on domestic inflation, not only disrupting the Fed's rate cut schedule but also dragging down the midterm election prospects—high prices have always been the most sensitive pain point for voters. Proactively cooling the conflict and suppressing oil prices is the lowest-cost and fastest way to stabilize expectations.
For Iran, prolonged head-on clashes will only invite more intense attacks; conserving strength and withdrawing with the opportunity is the optimal choice.
Both sides pressed the pause button for what they needed, quickly taking back the geopolitical premium, and naturally saw a violent correction in BZ and CL oil prices. But this détente is extremely fragile; once election pressure subsides and policy needs shift, conflicts can resume at any time.
2. $BZ. $CL Once oil prices are loosened, the Federal Reserve's room for statements instantly opens up
A week ago, the market was still buzzing about "no rate cuts for the whole year, or even the possibility of rate hikes in place," with the core support being the transmission chain of "rising oil prices→ rebounding inflation→ and the Fed reluctant to take action."
The single-day drop in crude oil has directly removed this toughest hawkish pillar: energy prices have dropped sharply, temporarily easing the biggest tail risk of inflation upward, and the Fed no longer has to bear the pressure of "anti-inflation" to maintain an extremely hawkish stance.
This is the biggest expectation gap in this decision: Powell can fully maintain a benchmark approach of unchanged interest rates, while at the press conference naturally acknowledging inflation improvement from falling energy prices, no longer firmly ruling out the possibility of a rate cut in September, and shifting from a "hawkish-hawkish" approach to a "neutral wait-and-see" approach, leaving ample flexibility for subsequent monetary policy.
It's like using a geopolitical maneuver to knock down hawkish market expectations, much more efficient than relying solely on speeches to guide expectations.
The two most common misconceptions the market tends to fall
1. Treat temporary easing as a long-term trend
Many people shout "oil prices have peaked and entered a downtrend" just because of a single-day plunge, clearly underestimating the repetitive nature of Middle East rivalry. The core contradiction remains unresolved, and the current low prices are a temporary correction under the policy cycle. After the midterm elections, a tough stance toward Iran is highly likely to return, and oil prices could surge again at any time due to geopolitical conflicts. Chasing short oil now is as risky as before.
2. Use the drop in oil prices as a signal for rate cuts
The drop in oil prices only eased the Fed's grip; it does not mean the rate-cutting cycle is about to begin. The core anchor of the Fed's decision remains endogenous data such as inflation and employment, with energy prices being only external variables. This decision is at most a neutral tone, without a clear timetable for rate cuts, going all-in on easing early and easily backfiring with disappointing statements.
Here are a few practical tips for all traders present
1. Maintain a range-bound approach for crude oil, avoid short chases or bottom-fishing. Geopolitical news-driven markets are highly volatile, so leverage positions should especially avoid one-sided gambling.
2. US stocks and crypto markets may see sentiment recovery due to cooling inflation expectations, but this is only a prelude to positive news; the final direction still depends on the decision and tone, so it's not advisable to go long in advance.
3. The decision focuses on two details: first, whether the policy statement removes the phrase "upside inflation risk," and second, whether Powell will no longer directly reject the September rate cut—these two signals are more targeted than the interest rates themselves.
Ultimately, geopolitics is merely a tool serving domestic affairs and monetary policy. This sharp drop in oil prices is less a shift in market supply and demand and more a fulfillment of policy demands. Once you understand the political dynamics behind it, you won't let a single day's sharp rises and falls disrupt your trading rhythm.The Fed curse hangs overhead, Bitcoin bulls need to be wary of this set of historical patterns
⚠️ A set of historical statistics that make BTC bulls nervous:
In the last 8 consecutive FOMC meetings, Bitcoin has fallen every time after the decision.
The pullback range varies greatly, with the smallest retracement at 3.34% and the largest crash reaching 33.55%, with no exceptions.
Interestingly, the market direction is not strongly correlated with whether the Fed raises, cuts, or holds interest rates. In other words, regardless of whether the Fed ultimately chooses to raise rates or hold steady this time, historical data shows BTC faces downward pressure, with the only difference being the magnitude of the pullback.
The 9th rate decision is coming soon.
Will history repeat itself, or will it be the classic "this time is different"? Feel free to share your thoughts 👀
$BTC
Disclaimer: Historical statistics reflect market phenomena only and do not guarantee future outcomes; this is not investment advice. $GLW Although the Q2 financial report exceeded expectations, the Q3 revenue guidance center fell short of market expectations, leading to fierce competition between bullish hash premium buying and high-level profit-taking.
Optical communications revenue in Q2 grew 32% year-over-year to $2.07 billion, confirming strong physical layer demand for AI data center infrastructure, which boosted risk appetite in the high-beta hardware segment. However, the midpoint of Q3 revenue guidance of $4.9 to $5 billion lagged behind the expected $5 billion, triggering a risk hedging of overpriced positions.
In terms of driving factors, high-margin optical communication products ranked first, with core gross margin rising by 120 basis points to 39.6%, supporting earnings resilience; Solar business followed closely with a 90% increase; A 15% decline in the life sciences segment, combined with single-digit growth in traditional glass and automotive businesses, has lagged on overall valuations.
The upside scenario triggers the bulls' focus on core EPS growth of 30% to $0.78 and Q3 EPS guidance of $0.85-0.89, which exceeded expectations. If the Q3 guidance reaches its upper limit in subsequent closing and core gross margin remains above 39.6%, funds will reprice its long-term outlook for a 19% compound annual growth rate from Q4 2026 to Q4 2030.
The downside scenario triggers defensive funds to create risk-off sentiment on the $4.9 billion lower bound of Q3 revenue guidance due to inflation and slowing data center capital expenditure. If not for the continued weakness in optical communications and the decline in adjusted free cash flow from $1.42 billion, positions would have fled to safe-haven assets, suppressing valuation multiples.
The condition for judgment of failure is: if the year-on-year growth rate of the optical communication business falls below 20%, it means there will be substantial cuts in downstream computing power construction plans, and the profit cushion established at the core operating profit margin of 20.9% in Q2 will be completely invalidated.
In the next seven days, focus on monitoring the next phase of AI computing power supply chain fund adjustments and whether there will be systematic revisions to data center customers' capital expenditure expectations.
#美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落 #英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股
The biggest change in the storage industry is not a decline, but the market beginning to revalue it.
Over the past year, AI storage has followed a very clear logic:
Demand explosion, capacity shortage, storage price increase, and leading companies enjoying valuation premiums.
Therefore, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have always been regarded by the market as the most direct beneficiaries of the AI era.
But now, this logic has encountered a new variable for the first time.
Changxin Technology surged on its first day of listing, with a market value soaring to the 3 trillion yuan level, becoming one of the highest market cap companies in the A-share market.
Subsequently, the market began to re-examine a question:
Is AI storage in the future a super cycle dominated by a few giants, or will it enter a stage with more players competing?
My view is:
In the short term, the decline in Korean storage stocks is more about valuation pressure release; but in the long term, Changxin entering the capital market will indeed change the market’s pricing of the storage competition landscape.
The reason is simple.
The three most important factors in the storage industry are:
Technology, cost, and capacity.
Samsung and SK Hynix currently still hold obvious advantages in HBM and high-end AI storage fields, which is why AI giant orders remain highly concentrated with leading manufacturers.
But the significance of Changxin’s listing is not just that there is one more company, but that it means China’s storage industry has officially entered the global capital market’s view.
In the past, the market traded on:
"AI growth, storage price increase, leading companies’ profit expansion."
In the future, it may become:
"AI demand continues to grow, but how will profits be distributed?"
This is also why Korean stocks have experienced drastic fluctuations.
The concern of capital is not that AI demand will disappear, but whether the leading companies can maintain past profit margins after more competitors enter the storage industry.
For my portfolio, I will not directly turn bearish on storage just because Changxin is listed.
Because AI computing power demand still exists, and data center construction has not stopped.
But I will lower expectations for unlimited growth of a single leading company.
In the past, investing in storage was based on buying the cycle.
Now, it may be necessary to start studying:
Who owns the highest-end products?
Who has the strongest customer binding?
Who can maintain profits amid price competition?
In the AI era, competition will not only happen on GPUs.
From chips to storage, and to the entire computing power supply chain, every link will be reshuffled.
The emergence of Changxin may not signal the end of the storage market, but rather the beginning of the next stage of storage competition.
$SAMSUNG $SKHYNIX $MU 2. Today's (July 28) Pre-Market Movement of U.S. Stocks
As of the pre-market phase in the evening Beijing time, the downward trend has not stopped, and panic sentiment continues to spread.
SanDisk fell again by more than 5% in pre-market trading, continuing yesterday's decline trend, firmly establishing a weak pattern as today's headline.
Micron Technology's pre-market decline widened to 7.15%, with bearish forces continuing to dominate.
Nasdaq futures also weakened simultaneously, with AI hardware and semiconductor sectors under broad pressure and correction.
Risk aversion increased, and the previously overheated AI storage sector entered a valuation correction cycle.
3. Four Core Reasons for Two Consecutive Days of Sharp Declines
First, the short-term gains were too large previously, accumulating massive profit-taking, triggering concentrated sell-offs.
Over the past year, storage chips have surged due to booming AI server demand, with SanDisk's cumulative increase exceeding 3200% and Micron's rise close to 730% on Nasdaq.
Stock prices have overextended future earnings expectations; any slight disturbance causes capital to rush to take profits and exit.
Second, China's ChangXin Technology listed on the A-share market, completely disrupting the overseas storage oligopoly of the three giants.
ChangXin surged sharply on its first day of listing, accelerating domestic substitution in the global DRAM market, raising market concerns about continuous share squeeze on Micron and SanDisk.
The original profit logic relying on oligopoly price control to raise chip prices has been thoroughly broken, forcing valuation adjustments downward.
Third, Morgan Stanley's latest research report warns that storage chip prices will peak in Q4 this year.
The AI-driven price increase cycle is about to reach a turning point, with subsequent price increase space significantly narrowing and profit growth expectations cooling down, according to Caixin.
Fourth, there is a major capital rotation within the U.S. tech sector.
Funds are abandoning high-volatility, high-valuation chip manufacturing stocks and shifting to stable-performing software consumer leaders like Apple and Microsoft.
After risk appetite declines, computing hardware themes are the first to be sold off.
4. Current Differences in the Movement of Two Stocks
SanDisk focuses on consumer-grade SSDs and flash USB drives, with a larger speculative bubble previously, so its correction is much stronger than Micron's.
Micron focuses on server DRAM and HBM high-end memory, deeply tied to AI computing demand, showing stronger resilience in declines.
However, in the overall sector downtrend cycle, neither is likely to have an independent upward trend; short-term movement will mainly be volatile bottoming out. $SNDK $$#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员：OKX大师课今晚开播，带你看懂四大科技巨头财报