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The AI sector is undergoing a logical reassessment. The market has begun to question whether sustained massive capital expenditures can be converted into stable profits, with ongoing pressure to realize high-level computing power and storage chips. Even if the sector rebounds, it is most likely a continuation of the decline, so blind bottom-fishing is not advisable.
#AI产业链 #美股板块分析#韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share market on its first day Currently, the two main variables dominating U.S. stocks are: crude oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. If oil prices strengthen again, inflation concerns will return, rate cut expectations will continue to be delayed, and growth stock valuations will remain under pressure. In the short term, risk assets find it difficult to sustain a strong rebound.
#美债收益率 #国际原油 #波动雷达: Monitor currency fluctuations The current U.S. stock market shows a clear divergence pattern, with the Dow Jones relatively resistant to decline while the Nasdaq remains under continuous pressure. Funds are steadily withdrawing from overvalued AI hardware and storage sectors, with stocks like SanDisk and Nvidia experiencing volatile weakness. The market focus is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the earnings reports from Apple and Meta, with a strong atmosphere of cautious observation.
#美股行情 #纳指 #科技股#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Effect on flows: Crypto markets continue to feel the tail end of capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs in step with interest rates and the contraction of global liquidity, limiting rapid bullish momentum.Super Market Week officially begins!
This week, multiple major data points will be implemented in a concentrated manner, significantly increasing market volatility. When trading, don't just focus on opportunities; it's even more important to manage risks first.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Bank of England rate decision, US PCE, and Eurozone CPI are all coming one after another, and the market could be swayed by news at any time.
Big markets never lack opportunities; what truly tests are positions, rhythm, and risk control.
Direction can wait, but risks must be controlled first.
Controlling position sizes and strictly stopping losses are more important than forecasting direction. $XAU 7月28日，全球股市的“黑色星期二”来得猝不及防。韩国KOSPI指数暴跌超10%触发熔断，三星、SK海力士重挫，整个AI产业链仿佛在一夜间被抽走了脊梁骨。
但如果你只盯着指数看，可能会错过A股盘面最真实的信号：创业板指虽然重挫7.35%，全市场却有超2000只个股逆市翻红。资金从高位的算力、存储芯片疯狂出逃，转头就涌入了银行和白酒，甚至把建设银行推上了历史新高。
这哪里是单纯的恐慌，分明是一场极致的“高低切换”。英伟达那7500亿美元的“循环融资”模式让市场嗅到了债务链断裂的风险，信用违约掉期价格飙升就是最直接的警报。当AI的巨额投入还没见到真金白银的利润，而美联储加息的阴影又悬在头顶时，聪明的钱早就开始寻找避风港了。
在这个超级财报周的前夜，与其猜测科技巨头们的业绩成色，不如看看资金用脚投票的结果。泡沫破裂的声音很响，但防御板块的坚挺也在提醒我们：市场从未失去理性，它只是在重新定价风险。#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 $SKHYNIX Capital in crypto keeps rotating. The easiest trades are buying momentum, waiting for it to slow, then shorting as liquidity and attention move elsewhere.
$ZEC, $HYPE, and $LIT are recent examples. But this pattern has been running for a while now. 🧠
I’m watching traders get emotionally played by $ETH again. It’s showing slight outperformance against $BTC, while BTC itself had a fairly positive month.
Historically, BTC tends to rise in July and drop in August. With the tardfi takeover in crypto now complete, summer months have become even less attractive. 🌞📉
My take: hold strong views but stay flexible. If you’re riding momentum, great. Just don’t convince yourself price can only go up from here.
Book profits. Be ready to flip your stance when that momentum stalls.
Most of these moves are driven by trend-following flows. And while that often precedes spot price action, the lack of real spot participation remains very noticeable.
Patience. 🐢Brothers, today we won't talk about ETH, let's talk about altcoins. First, let's pour some cold water— the script in your mind of "the altcoin season is here, buy with eyes closed, the whole market rises together" probably won't hold this round. I'm not being bearish, the on-chain and capital data are right there, the whole structure has changed. ① Let's start with a counterintuitive fact: the more coins there are, the harder it is for altcoins to rise. In the 2021 round, there were thousands of coins on the market. Now in 2026, the total number of coins in the market exceeds 10 million (data: KuCoin Research Institute). Translated into plain language: the same amount of money wanting to enter altcoins used to be spread over thousands of targets, now it has to be spread over 10 million. The attention and liquidity each can get is diluted by about 1000 times. Even harsher is the concentration: now the top 10 altcoins account for 82% of the total altcoin market cap (this number was only 64% in 2021, according to Talos Research). This means—money is not spreading out at all, it only squeezes into those top few. So the physical basis for a "full altcoin season" has been removed this round. ② This round, BTC won't "step aside" anymore. The premise of previous altcoin seasons was that BTC dominance (BTC.D) would drop from a high level, and money would spill out. This round, BTC.D has fallen from the high point of 65%-66% in mid-2025 to the current 57%-58%, it looks like it's dropping, but analysts generally say: in the ETF era, institutional money only goes into BTC products with structural lock-up, it's hard to return to 2017/Is it time for another flippening? 👀
The competition in RWA perpetuals is starting to reveal an interesting trend.
@OndoPerps: $220M in 24-hour perpetual volume across 28 markets
@Lighter_xyz: $196M across 76 markets
With fewer than half the listings, Ondo is generating more trading volume within the same asset class—stocks, forex, commodities, and indices.
The broader landscape looks like this:
@tradexyz dominates with roughly 79% of open interest and 78% of trading volume, leaving the remaining platforms competing for market share.
@Aster_DEX: 108 markets, $93M in 24-hour volume.
OndoPerps: 28 markets, $220M in 24-hour volume.
For now, a focused listing strategy appears to be working.
Concentrating liquidity into a smaller number of high-demand markets can create deeper order books and better execution than spreading liquidity across hundreds of thinly traded markets.
That said, this dynamic may not last forever.
These platforms aren't just competing with each other—they're also competing with traditional financial derivatives markets.
Over time, long-term leaders may need to expand far beyond a few dozen listings. The challenge won't simply be listing 500+ markets, but doing so while maintaining deep liquidity and efficient execution.
At the moment, Ondo appears to be winning the early phase with quality over quantity.
The next stage of competition will likely be about combining broad market coverage with strong liquidity.
Source: @DefiLlama
#CXMTDebutShockwave #FOMCRateWatch SanDisk is currently in a meltdown, down 12.42% in 24 hours, nearly 29% in 7 days, and 48% in just one month. It jumped from $1,233 to $1,077 in one go—how could this be called a correction? It was a decapitation.
The news alert in the screenshot clearly states: China's DUV mass production combined with concerns over AI capital expenditure. These two stabs are fatal. SanDisk is making NAND storage, essentially a bulk commodity, no different from selling cabbage; its moat is as thin as paper. Previously, it was all supported by the story of "unlimited expansion of AI infrastructure," causing stock prices to soar. Now the ghost story of capital spending peaking has come true, and the decline is harder than anyone else's.
A deeper issue is that storage chips are the most sensitive nerve in the entire AI supply chain. Once Hyperscaler procurement slows down, the first to cut are storage and hard drives. High-beta stocks like SanDisk outperform the market when they rise and lead the market when they fall. A month of halving means capital is fleeing and institutions are rotating elsewhere from AI hardware.
This is definitely not just SanDisk's issue. The entire Philadelphia semiconductor index is collapsing, and this US stock bull market is being propped up entirely by AI narratives, but now the foundation is clearly shaking. The bubble won't burst overnight, but SanDisk's monthly halving has already sounded the death knell for the AI bubble—when the story can't continue, the naked swimmers are the first to surface.ETH on the daily frame is showing a rather subtle 🧐 signal
Although it has broken the old high, the current form is a bullish wedge — a potential warning for a short-term 📉 trend
The small support zone of 1870-1850 is playing an extremely important role. This is also the area near the lower border of the ascending 📊 channel
If ETH holds this zone, the wedge will not form. The price is still in the upward channel and the possibility of recovery remains.
Conversely, if the wedge is broken, the low point may fall near the 1710 📉 mark
My strategy for now:
- Hold the support zone → continue to enter long positions
- Breakout → consider short selling, but will wait for confirmation from actual developments
For now, just observe and wait for the right 🎯 opportunityEveryone always thinks that "rising fivefold" is a safety cushion, but the real risk is precisely hidden in those places where the rise is the smoothest.
Do you believe that after an asset has risen 500%, a crash might only need a "bad news" to lightly trigger it?
Tonight, the US stock storage sector collectively plunged: SanDisk was up 3.6% pre-market but quickly dropped more than 8%, and Micron, Western Digital, and SK Hynix all followed down.
The trigger is quite ironic — China's storage manufacturer Changxin surged 466% on its first day of listing in Shanghai, but the market instantly turned sour. New capacity is coming, will the price increase logic be interrupted? Panic fell like dominoes.
But the reason for such a deep drop lies even deeper.
SanDisk has risen about 500% this year, and its chips have long been as loose as a sand pile. This kind of high-beta asset built on narrative and capital, when rising, benefits everyone, but once the narrative cracks even slightly, profit-taking floods out like a torrent.
Does this script look familiar? It's exactly the same as the high-level tracks in the crypto world: supply + sentiment + profit-taking all come together, and the catch-up drop is the fastest.
- Risk appetite has not expanded; it is contracting again. For sectors like storage with "cyclical + growth" dual labels, once the market starts doubting future demand, capital will immediately cut high-gain positions to hedge.
- What people might overlook is: this round of decline is not just panic over Changxin, but also an early reaction to the Fed's Thursday rate decision. The market is trading on the dual expectations of "liquidity tightening + weakening demand."
- Another hidden risk is that SanDisk, Micron, and similar stocks have extremely high volatility; once a drop triggers stop-losses, it will form a self-reinforcing sell-off.
Bullish logic? If the Fed signals dovishness tomorrow, or if Changxin's capacity rollout is slower than expected, panic might quickly repair — but the premise is that profit-taking holders are willing to wait.
Bearish path? If the rate decision is hawkish, or more storage manufacturers follow with capacity expansion, the upward logic will completely shift to a "supply glut" narrative, and this adjustment might only be the first wave.
My judgment: the "faith" in high-level tracks is the most fragile; the more it rises, the less reason it needs to fall. Now is not the time to bottom-fish, but to observe how the market digests the combination of "high gains + new variables."
In short: don’t look for safety where profit-taking is clustered.
(The above is just my personal market observation and does not constitute any trading advice~)
$SNDK $MU $WDC #StorageSector #FedRateDecisionDaily Market Brief | 2026.07.28 (Tuesday)
📌 One-sentence summary
Today, the most noteworthy is not BTC, but the collective crash of the global storage chip sector.
SanDisk $SNDK, Micron $MU, SK $SKHYNIX Hynix, and Samsung have been continuously sold off, indicating that capital is reassessing AI capital expenditure returns and the competitive landscape of the storage industry.
🔥 Today's focus: Why are storage chips crashing so much?
South Korea's KOSPI index plunged about 10.8% today, Samsung Electronics fell about 13.4%, SK Hynix dropped about 14.7%; in the US stock market, SanDisk fell about 11% in the previous trading day, and Micron continues to be under pressure.
This round of decline mainly comes from three reasons:
① Previous gains and valuations were too high
AI servers, HBM, and storage demand drove related companies to surge significantly, with the market already pricing in very optimistic growth expectations.
When capital begins to doubt whether AI investments can quickly generate profits, the storage stocks with the largest prior gains naturally become the first to be reduced.
② Market worries about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure
Building data centers requires massive financing, electricity, GPUs, and storage equipment.
If companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon slow down AI investments, demand expectations for HBM, DRAM, and NAND will be downgraded.
Therefore, the upcoming earnings reports of tech giants are very critical. The market cares less about EPS and more about whether management continues to increase AI capital expenditure.
③ ChangXin Technology brings new competitive pressure
ChangXin Technology's market value exceeded 3 trillion RMB on its first day of listing, and the market has begun to price in China's storage capacity expansion and the potential price competition it may bring.
This puts pressure on the traditional DRAM businesses of Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, but ChangXin currently does not represent an immediate replacement for these companies in the high-end HBM market.
💡 My judgment
Currently, it looks more like:
Deleveraging of overvaluation + concerns about AI investment returns + repricing of Chinese competitive pressure.
It is not that storage demand suddenly disappeared, nor can we simply conclude that the industry logic has ended. But before Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon announce capital expenditure guidance, it is not advisable to rush to catch the falling knife just because of the large drop.
If tech giants continue to expand AI investment, this decline may gradually turn into an opportunity after being oversold; if capital expenditure starts to decline, storage stocks may face a second round of adjustment.
🪙 Brief note on BTC
BTC is currently around $63,000, mainly due to deleveraging ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting.
Short-term support at $63,000 to continue observing; if it breaks down effectively, it may retest $61,000–$62,000. This is not currently the most worthwhile direction to trade.
📅 Upcoming focus
Early July 30: Federal Reserve decision, Microsoft and Meta earnings
Early July 31: Apple and Amazon earnings
Whether the storage sector can stop falling depends mainly on whether tech giants continue to invest real money in AI data centers. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
The market was a bit weak today, so it just kept moving forward. Yesterday, Bitcoin was short at 65,700, but now the third target is 62,800, with a low near 62,660. Ethereum shorts at 1967~1990 are now at a low of 1855. This position is quite precise
The only option is today's fifteenth strategy: BTC64300 and ETH1920 shorts haven't given entry opportunities, so you can only keep your previous short positions in between. Take profits in batches and reduce positions in time. As for whether today's short strategy can be used, it's still unknown. We can only wait patiently. If you really can't enter, just give up on taking a day off. With the interest rate decision meeting approaching, aggressive trading is not recommended! Patiently wait for today's pressure position, see how the team develops, and then choose the right moment to enter!
#韩股重挫8%, Changxin tops A-shares on its first day. #财报观察员: OKX Masterclass premieres tonight, helping you understand the financial reports of four major tech giants$BTC $ETH Trump is once again playing the familiar script—what truly influences the market isn't harsh words, but action
Trump is once again playing out the familiar negotiation rhythm.
On one hand, it stated that if negotiations fail, the U.S. will take tougher measures.
On the other hand, it has sent signals of easing, saying that now is still the best time to reach an agreement, and hopes Iran will respond formally as soon as possible.
Furthermore, he emphasized that the new tariff policy will not harm the U.S. economy.
I believe this remains Trump's usual negotiation strategy—apply pressure first, then negotiate.
A tough stance is more about increasing the bargaining chips in negotiations, rather than implying that the situation will escalate immediately.
For the capital market, what truly deserves attention is never a single speech, but whether there will be any new concrete actions to follow.
If both sides continue to express willingness to negotiate, Middle East geopolitical risks are expected to further cool, market risk aversion may gradually ease, and risk assets will see recovery opportunities.
However, if negotiations stall again or new military actions occur, market risk appetite could rapidly decline, and volatility in assets like Bitcoin, US stocks, and gold could increase significantly.
There are still only two core variables that truly influenced the market this week:
First, whether the situation in the Middle East continues to ease.
Second, whether the Fed's rate decision will send new policy signals.
One determines geopolitical risk.
One determines global mobility.
These two events are far more important than any single speech by any politician.
Don't be led by news headlines.
Truly mature investors look at how the funds respond, not what someone says.
Because news can change the mood of the day.
But only capital can determine the direction of a market rally.
News determines short-term sentiment, while capital determines long-term trends. What is truly worth watching has never been what Trump says, but where global capital will flow next. $BTC #停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day I've been on the sidelines for two weeks, telling myself every day to wait until tomorrow to watch
But two weeks have passed
And tomorrow is still tomorrow
Meanwhile, the end-of-day news hasn't been idle at all
On one side, platforms are shrinking and laying off staff
On another, long-term holders are moving their coins to exchanges
And on yet another, project teams are going bankrupt and restructuring, crashing the coin prices
I'm sitting in the observation seat
Like watching a continuous short drama
And then guess what
What stings me the most isn't a single coin crashing
It's the supply-side stories piling up
Analysts mentioned
That the proportion of Bitcoin long-term holders
Transferring their holdings to exchanges
Is near historical peaks
In plain language
Old wallets are becoming "sellable"
Not necessarily dumping at market price immediately
But the feeling of bullets being chambered is very clear
Luno reportedly laid off about 20%
Even the exchanges themselves are cutting costs
Indicating spot trading isn't that lucrative
It's not just retail investors suffering
The STORJ situation is even harsher
Storj Labs filed for Chapter 11
The coin price first reflected a death discount
Event coins love to slap people at the close
You think it's oversold
It thinks it's liquidation
On-chain activity isn't idle either
Large amounts of ETH are withdrawn from platforms
And market-making related addresses are moving HYPE out
Funds are relocating
Not partying
I've been watching for two weeks
Actually, I've already paid the opportunity cost
But I've also avoided several fake breakouts and pullbacks
The more lively the end-of-day moves
The more you have to ask
Is this a new trend or just amplified noise of an old trend
So my judgment is
Among tonight's end-of-day moves
I only mark "supply loosening + platform contraction + event coin landmines"
I don't translate any single factor into a must-rise or must-crash tomorrow
Watching is fine
But the trigger conditions must be clearly stated
Whether volume expands and then retracts
Is more useful than shouting "wait until tomorrow" one more day
I glanced at today's news and want to mention a few points:
#Storj Labs申请Chapter 11破产重组，STORJ暴跌
Bankruptcy restructuring isn't emotional FUD, it's about terms and creditor ranking. Coin prices can preemptively price in the worst case, or double-kill bottom-fishing orders when rumors clear. I treat it as an event coin case study, avoiding chasing shorts or longs without liquidation discount protection, only noting if risk diffusion touches the storage narrative.
#美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落
Regulatory expectations easing should theoretically boost developer sentiment, but risk assets still fell today. This shows short-term pricing power lies in positions and leverage, not headline optimism. I treat the cooling of open-source AI expectations as mid-term sentiment repair, not a hedge against supply stories like LTH moving to exchanges.
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
The bill's timeline is delayed again, postponing compliance premium realization. The close is already sensitive, and with policy vacuum added, funds prefer to reduce risk. I don't treat "bad news landing as good news," just lower short-term thematic speculation weight and refocus attention on price and volume.
$BTC $ETH #尾盘异动 #供应The variable most likely to break the bulls' logic: If STRC's price stays below $100 for a long time and the company is forced to use Bitcoin reserves for buybacks, it will simultaneously weaken spot buying for BTC and premium narratives for MSTR.
Is Strategy overestimating the value of its own STRC?
Fact: Strategy still retains the right to buy back up to $975 million worth of STRC at a price below $100. The company made it clear that the buyback funds may come from selling MSTR shares or directly selling Bitcoin, rather than from US dollar cash reserves. This is not a new buy-in program, but a potential execution option under the existing licensing framework.
Changes in market structure: Strategy is instrumentalizing its capital structure. It is no longer just a buyer of BTC, but leverages the MSTR premium and STRC discount to turn equity and convertible bonds into dynamic leverage. If STRC remains below $100, executing a buyback is equivalent to reducing liabilities at a discount, but if the funds come from selling MSTR or BTC, it will put selling pressure on the latter two.
Pricing impact:
- Bullish path: If MSTR's stock price rebounds, the company can issue new shares at low cost to raise funds, avoiding the use of BTC reserves. At this time, buying back STRC is equivalent to canceling debt at a discount, increasing exposure per BTC, which benefits MSTR's premium recovery relative to BTC and indirectly supports risk appetite for ETH and altcoins.
- Bearish risk: If the MSTR premium narrows or BTC falls, companies may be forced to sell BTC to buy back STRC. This will create a negative feedback loop of BTC spot selling pressure > MSTR net asset value discount deepening by -> more BTC sold. As high-beta assets, altcoins will face greater liquidity withdrawal pressure.
- Expiration Conditions: The $975 million grant is not a one-time execution but a flexible cap. The market needs to observe whether actual buybacks are accompanied by reductions in MSTR or BTC. If the buyback is entirely raised through newly issued MSTR, the signal is bullish; If BTC is reduced along with this, the signal is bearish.
Main risk: If BTC falls below $80,000, it could trigger concerns about MSTR staking liquidations, forcing companies to use BTC reserves early and accelerating the decline.
Conclusion: The essence of Strategy's capital operations is a leveraged tool amplifying BTC exposure, with the direction of long and short depends on the source of financing. Before the MSTR premium resumes, STRC repurchases are more likely to act as volatility amplifiers rather than stabilizers.
Discussion: At what price do you think Strategy would choose to sell BTC to buy back STRC when BTC drops?The core contradiction of tokenized stocks bringing US stock primary market subscriptions on-chain lies in the collision between the liquidity absorption capacity of real consumer assets and the macro Fed's interest rate policy direction.
After completing pilot projects with tech targets like SpaceX and Bending Spoons, the on-chain tokenized stock platform has attracted subscription intentions from Jersey Mike's, a restaurant entity with over 3,300 stores and annual sales of $4.3 billion. High-premium consumer assets in the primary US market are penetrating on-chain, directly opening up a cross-border channel between traditional US IPOs and on-chain capital pools.
The driving forces are ranked as: interest rate environment expectations are greater than U.S. secondary market risk appetite, higher than on-chain capital premiums, and greater than the squeeze effect of gold and U.S. Treasury yields. The Fed's interest rate path determines the anchor point for US IPO valuations. If the dollar index weakens and Treasury yields fall, on-chain liquidity will be significantly motivated to seek high returns on real assets.
The trigger conditions for the upward scenario are: the PE valuation of the U.S. consumer sector is revised upward, and the US dollar index and benchmark interest rate maintain a fluctuating downward trend. At this time, the positive correlation between US stocks and the crypto market increases, with a surge in IPO subscription intentions supported by annual cash flow of $4.3 billion in sales, accelerating on-chain capital spillover into traditional US risk assets, driving up the total locked amount and trading frequency of tokenized assets on the chain.
The trigger conditions for the downside scenario are: repeated rate cut expectations driving a strong rebound in the US dollar index, and rising gold and US Treasury yields simultaneously putting pressure on US risk asset valuations. If the review period for physical US US listings is extended or the settlement and fulfillment mechanism is hindered, on-chain tokens may face the risk of trading at a discount relative to their actual ownership of US stocks, triggering on-chain deposited funds to flow back into gold and risk-free US Treasury tokenized products.
The criteria for invalidation are that the actual IPO pricing of the US stock market falls significantly below market expectations, or compliance review obstacles arise during the physical delivery stage. When the on-chain subscription premium continues to exceed the cost of traditional institutions holding shares by more than 15%, the forced liquidation of arbitrage funds will completely disrupt the cross-market linkage logic.
In the next seven days, key attention should be paid to US Treasury yield trends, US dollar index volatility, and on-chain US stock subscription funds retained net inflows.
#Storj Labs files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring, STORJ plunges #SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧I currently have a lot of cash on hand and don't know whether to enter the market
Family,
I'm staring blankly at the list of declines
U is lying quietly
The K-line is making a terrible noise
BTC has only dropped a little over two points
ETH and SOL have directly dropped over four points
As if deliberately reminding me
Altcoins are only honest when their elasticity is downward
And then guess what
Within the same bearish candle
The layering is especially severe
BTC 63453
About -2.57% in 24 hours
The intraday low touched 63055
ETH 1876
About -4.36%
SOL 73.18
About -4.49%
When interpreting declines, don't just look at percentages
See who loses the rhythm first
BTC is still grinding at the 63,000 level
As if the main force doesn't want to wake up the spot volume
ETH is deeper
The good news of the exit queue dropping to zero can't stop the price
Indicating the staking side is relieved
Spot demand hasn't caught up
SOL is about as deep as ETH
The ecological heat narrative is uniformly muted in the downtrend
Those branches you chased high on
Pay tuition today first
I'm more concerned about shrinking volume
The high point dropped from 65713 steadily down
But the trading volume doesn't look like panic selling
More like leverage being slowly worn down
Spot is lying flat
The anxiety of holding a lot of cash
Comes from fear of missing the rebound
And also from fear of catching a falling knife
When these two fears overlap
People get itchy hands and click recklessly
So my judgment is
Tonight is not suitable for "buying just because it dropped a lot"
The relative excess decline of ETH/SOL compared to BTC hasn't finished yet
Unless volume picks up and key levels are reclaimed
Otherwise cash is position, not trash
I only move the first batch when it stabilizes and volume increases
There are a few other things worth noting today, let's talk about them:
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
The most expensive thing before the decision is the illusion of certainty. Standing still is the baseline; the dot plot and the tone of the press conference are the sources of volatility. Holding cash is not empty-handed showmanship, but saving the gunpowder for early Thursday Beijing time, to avoid running out of bullets prematurely in the downtrend.
#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零
Exit queue dropping to zero should theoretically fix selling pressure expectations, but ETH dropped deeper today. This shows price is influenced by trading risk appetite and liquidity, not just staking queue. I take this as a mid-term fundamental plus, but short-term still obeys layered declines, not forcing good news to resist bearish candles.
#停火预期兑现，WTI原油期货单日跌8.68%
Oil price plunge eases stagflation fears but didn't immediately trigger crypto rally. Funds first retreat from crowded narratives, then risk appetite returns. Altcoins on the decline list are worse; I interpret this as deleveraging priority, not macro shifting to full easing.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #跌幅解读 #分层First, tell me why your feelings arise. In just 48 hours, it plunged straight from $1400+ all the way to around $1110. The cumulative drop over two days is nearly 24%, with nearly a 40% drawback from the high. The intraday low reached $1085, with a sharp and rapid decline. The short-term oversold price is too obvious, and bottom-fishing funds can't help but want to enter the market to bet on a rebound, but it looks like the price can't fall. But let's break down the two layers of truth and discuss—does it really count as the bottom? 1. Three reasons to see a bottoming out (points supporting your idea): 1. Technically, it has already touched the key strong support range around $1100, which is the concentrated base of several previous rounds of consolidation. It is also a recognized defensive price in the options market, with a large number of buying orders hanging here to absorb selling pressure. After consecutive heavy drops, bearish momentum has been depleted in the short term, and a technical rebound could occur at any time. 2. They already hold a large number of long-term locked orders, and their fundamentals haven't collapsed. They hold $42 billion in long-term supply contracts, so their revenue will basically be locked in for several years to come. Even if the cycle of memory chip price increases slows, the company's profits won't plummet, so there's no logic for a crash. 3. Panic has fully unleashed its concentrated fears; the trigger for the decline was Changxin's IPO challenging expectations of overseas storage monopolies. The negative news has been priced in by the market for two consecutive days, with most of the bad news being fulfilled. 2. Risks of bottoming out cannot be confirmed for now (there is still room for further decline) 1. The previous gains were too bubble-based, and the correction was not over. Since last year, the stock has surged more than 8 times at its peak, and AI storage dividends have driven the stock price upI reviewed 20 project white papers, but only 3 were worth buying
After the US stock market opened, I was even less willing to flip through the white paper
The screen was full of red and green battles
The Dao finger can still be red
Her nagel was soft and pressed against the water
NVIDIA has lost nearly five percent in a single day
I stared at Da Bing
I thought, after the tech crash, valuations will be punished
Then guess what
BTC 63453
In 24 hours, it dropped by about 2.57%.
ETH 1876 fell even deeper
About 4.36%.
Linkage is not a simultaneous plunge
The conduction path is changing
The old Nasdaq coughed
The mountain stronghold was the first to kneel
Now, it is
Chip leaders are giving valuations discounts first
Risk appetite is sold first
Crypto followed the decline in the rear row
But the scale has been dragged down by shrinking volume
Like a reluctant follower
Just look at the differentiation and you'll understand
The Dow can still be held up by traditional weights
The Nasdaq is losing sideways
NVDA took the hit alone
The big cake was being ground near 63,000
It's not that I'm not afraid of US stocks
The spot supply is too dry
Even if you want to smash, you can't make a waterfall
There is another layer of evening dishes
Fitch has elevated AI pullbacks to credit risk terms
Core Scientific discussed infrastructure cooperation with AMD
Narrative is passionate
However, both the stock price and coin price cooled down
This temperature difference is the most torture
So my judgment is
Don't use the signal that 'US stocks are in red, so it's time to rally' tonight
Let's first see whether NVDA or the Nasdaq is the first to stop the valuation cut
Da Bing Station will not return 64,500
The crossover is still going downward
I only kept Kokura to try and error
Leave the bullets for Thursday's early morning interest rate decision
And by the way, let's take a look at what everyone has been talking about lately:
#财报观察员: OKX's masterclass premieres tonight, helping you understand the financial reports of the four major tech giants
Earnings season isn't about headlines; it's about guidance and buyback tones. Tonight's giant class serves as a preview checklist. To check whether NVDA's daytime valuation has been overdrawn by earnings expectations, I'll only note the key lines and not follow the crowd, to avoid disrupting the rhythm with the five-minute opening sentiment orders.
#英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保
The guarantee narrative sounds like massive endorsement, but on the market, the stock price is already discounted. This shows that funds are more afraid of crowding at high levels and credit chains, and do not accept empty promises. I treat it as a medium- to long-term industry lead, and in the short term, I still watch price and volume, not translating the phrase "guarantee required" into "must buy the dip tonight."
#韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share market on its first day
The aftermath of the valuation cutoff in Asia Storage is still lingering; Changxin's rise to the top is a structural story, not a global recovery in risk appetite. With weak tech in US stocks, aftershocks in Korean stocks, and shrinking Bitcoin volume, when all three lines move in the same direction, I reduce my illusions about linkage and decide to survive the decision week before discussing elasticity.
$BTC $ETH #美股联动 #晚盘别人看K线我看链上数据，结果发现了异常
异常不是玄学
是同一标的上
三种完全相反的动作并排发生
你要是只看一根收盘线
会觉得市场在讲一个故事
打开工具才发现
它在同时讲三个
然后你猜怎么着
存储相关合约这边
有人深套还把买单挂到更狠的下沿
像在跟清算线谈恋爱
同一条生态里
又有人因为自动减仓机制
在低点把空单处理掉
反过来吃到数百万级利润
这叫机制红利
不叫你也能复制的神迹
再切到 HYPE
巨鲸在关键价上方挂出千万级卖单
计划反弹补空
另一边还有持续卖出的地址
抛压和墙叠在一起
如果你的交易系统只有K线
今天你会反复被标题拽着跑
空也怕
多也怕
工具层我强制自己看四样
一挂单是意图
成交才是事实
墙可以撤
二清算和 ADL
解释「为什么有人反而赚了」
别用道德评价替代机制理解
三资金费率与持仓
判断是冷杠杆还是热博弈
冷的时候最适合耗你耐心
四大额转出与卖出地址
区分「换仓」和「砸盘」
别看见流出就喊崩盘
我的实操很土
把监控列表固定
超阈值推送关掉大半
只留触发条件提醒
减少被信息流绑架
K线负责美
数据负责真
情绪负责坑
所以我的判断是
今天下午最有#Korean stocks plunge 8%, Changxin tops A-shares on debut
On the second day of Changxin's listing, global memory stocks continue to bleed.
Yesterday it surged 465% on the A-shares market with a turnover of 141.1 billion, a historic first for A-shares. On the same day, US stocks crashed first—SanDisk $SNDK fell 11%, Micron $MU dropped 2%, and SK Hynix $SKHY directly fell below its issue price.
Today it's Korea's turn. The KOSPI fell over 8%, triggering a circuit breaker; SK Hynix $SKHYNIX dropped over 11%, Samsung $SAMSUNG Electronics fell over 9%. This is no coincidence; global capital is repricing—the valuation premium of the "Korean giants" now faces clear competition for the first time.
Changxin's global DRAM market share is only 8%, behind Samsung's 38%, SK Hynix's 29%, and Micron's 22%. But the capital market looks at expectations rather than current status; the A-shares pricing already values it as the "future number two."
For $BTC: the memory stock crash is causing panic in the global tech sector, suppressing short-term risk appetite. But from another perspective, if capital withdraws from overvalued semiconductors, crypto could become one of the overflow destinations. Let's first see how Samsung and SK Hynix report their earnings in the next couple of days. #Korean stocks plunge 8%, Changxin tops A-shares on debut#CXMTDebutShockwave #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch 🚨 While everyone else is panicking, I'm preparing my watchlist.
Many investors only see a stock making new lows.
I see a company working through one of the largest supply events since its public debut.
Here's why.
At the moment, only about 5% of $SPCX shares are freely tradable.
That limited float helped drive the rally to $225, but it has also contributed to heightened volatility as supply remains constrained.
Over the coming months, more shares are expected to become eligible for trading:
→ Jul. 24: Flight 13 ✅
→ Aug. 4: Q2 Earnings
→ Aug. 11: First 20% Unlock
→ Aug.–Oct.: Five 7% Unlocks
→ Q3 Earnings: Additional 28% Unlock
→ Dec. 8: Final Lockup Expiration
Each unlock increases the potential share supply.
If demand doesn't absorb that additional supply, selling pressure can persist.
That's why I'm staying patient.
What many investors overlook is that once the lockup schedule passes, the market can begin focusing on the fundamentals instead of upcoming share unlocks.
Key long-term drivers remain:
• Starlink
• Launch leadership
• Starship
Some investors see uncertainty.
I see a period that deserves close attention.
If I decide to start building a position in $SPCX , I'll share my view here.
Stay tuned.
#CXMTDebutShockwave #FOMCRateWatch [Today's Market News | What I Think]
1. MicroStrategy temporarily paused BTC purchases and began accumulating US dollar reserves, which are already enough to pay 25 months of interest;
2. Jiang Zhuoer said: BitMine is still buying ETH, and with the development of RWA and others, it will no longer short ETH but short BTC.
3. The scale of BTC long-term holders transferring positions to exchanges has recently risen to a high level
My understanding: This set of news can be viewed together. It does not prove BTC will hit new lows again, but it does indicate that BTC's long-term selling pressure has not been fully absorbed, and buying interest from ETFs and corporate treasury units is not sufficient to confirm a reversal; In contrast, ETH's institutional treasury, staking, and RWA narratives are strengthening, so the next phase may not focus on a one-sided ETH bull market, but rather on ETH's continued strength relative to BTC.
My view on ETH is all positive, believing it has more room than SOL in the next round. I've shared this from different perspectives before. If you're interested, you can check out the article about Robin Hood and the one comparing SOL and ETH.
Note: Strategy has paused BTC purchases, increasing token activity among long-term holders, while BitMine continues to buy ETH. This does not mean BTC has lost its long-term value, nor does it mean ETH will soon emerge from an independent rally.
4. Trump: If an agreement with Iran cannot be reached, Haoshan will be destroyed very easily
My understanding: If you pay close attention to market trends, you'll notice that on the eve of the last Fed meeting, Trump also released various positive signals to ease the war, and you should remember that Trump signed the US-Iran agreement early at the G7 summit.
Moreover, during the period when these positive factors were released, crude oil prices also dropped sharply. The last policy meeting was originally before the signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement, but Trump signed the agreement ahead of the meeting. His goal was very clear: to push crude oil prices down and prevent the Fed from using crude oil as a reason to raise rates at the meeting.
Back to today, has crude oil been falling these past few days? Is Trump once again easing the positive news of war easing? So this short-term ceasefire + positive signals mean that Trump wants to keep rates unchanged, so he must do something to provide strong support to the Fed chair.
Moreover, looking at the current situation in the Middle East (most men focus on military affairs), the Strait of Hormuz is still under blockade and counter-blockade, and the wars related to Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen's Houthi are actually escalating. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has met with Trump in the U.S. and Iran insists on maintaining its control over the Strait of Hormuz. With its stance on maintaining its nuclear rights, it means the war in the Middle East has not actually cooled down.
So, nothing has changed; currently, it seems more like a temporary diplomatic cooldown, and military risks remain; Oil prices are trading ahead of the expected ceasefire, but the real issues remain unresolved.
Summary: Short-term news can change prices. What truly determines the trend is whether capital continues to flow in, and how those temporarily suppressed issues will eventually resurface.I studied the trends of 100 surging coins, A common point was found
It's not some mysterious indicator
That's when they rise
There's always a noisier section drawing attention
Today, the reverse is also true
Where some people lose money
will force the funds to find the next rest area
Then guess what
Storage and semiconductors are the main line
This week, he was pinned to the ground and rubbed
Korean stocks suffered extreme declines
The dragon head returned from the climax zone to a very wounded position
Some names pulled back nearly half
After the risk budget is withdrawn
There are three types of market destinations
One continues to shrink into cash
Stablecoin volume is still near high levels
This means the bullets outside the field didn't die
He was just lazier to do anything
A story of embracing AI leaders
What a large guarantee
What is expected to be a decline in open source policies?
The more grand the title
The more it feels like a safe haven narrative
One is to gamble on the decline in oil prices
After the expected ceasefire was realized
Crude oil plunged in a single day
Inflation expectations have eased a bit
Risk asset theory can give us a breather
Encryption is in the middle
The large cake collapsed in shade
The mountain stronghold is even softer
It is neither the worst storage stock
Nor is it the most attractive AI main storyline
So today, I only remember one sentence about sector rotation
Money does not disappear
It is becoming more picky eaters
Picky eating stage
The easiest to lose money is
You chase new trends with old maps
Copying 'Wrong Kills' in the Storage Minefield
Again, they chased the price of miscellaneous coins in AI headlines
My rotary watch is ugly but easy to use
The first row of BTC ballast is available
The second row is a few but refined main storyline observations
The third row of event coins defaults to zero position
Unless all information is disclosed
Oil prices fell and AI warmed up
It can improve the overall environment
Not automatically means the Knockoff Season is coming backThe NFT market continues to showcase the complex dynamics of this emerging asset class, with selective projects showing short-term strength but struggling to maintain momentum over longer periods. The recent performance of The God Pull provides a compelling case study of the tension between short-term technical factors and long-term fundamental considerations, highlighting the importance of understanding the direct catalysts driving price action and the fundamental factors that ultimately determine project viability. The God Pull currently shows a bullish short-term floor squeeze pattern, driven by technical factors that may push prices higher in the short term, but if repeated purchases fail to materialize, the project still faces the risk of a final decline. This tension between short-term opportunities and long-term risks is characteristic of many NFT projects; initial hype and scarcity can drive prices up, even if fundamentals suggest limited sustainability. Before the disclosure, OpenSea data showed that listings, bids, and recorded sales above the paid minting price provided traders with a tighter supply basis for trading. The existence of pre-reveal activities indicates that there is genuine demand for the project even before the artwork is revealed, indicating that the brand, concept, or community appeal is sufficient to attract buyer interest above the casting price. This pre-existing demand provides a supporting foundation that can help sustain prices in the short term after exposure. The Porsche NFT mint serves as a cautionary tale for the project, where initial scarcity created squeeze but then faded as repeat buyers failed to appear. Of the planned 7,500 castings, only 2.36 were completed#英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保
Is Old Huang planning to fight alongside Ottoman to make a name for himself?
This time, NVIDIA may not just sell GPUs, but is preparing to step in personally to "bottom line" OpenAI's AI infrastructure.
Reportedly, Nvidia is discussing guarantees for OpenAI's approximately $250 billion data center financing. It should be noted that this is still in the negotiation stage and not yet implemented.
What truly deserves attention here is not the $250 billion figure, but the possible changing competitive model within the AI industry.
In the past, Nvidia was responsible for selling computing power, while OpenAI trained the models.
In the future, NVIDIA may help customers build data centers through guarantees, financing, and other means, and then customers will purchase more GPUs.
The AI industry chain is upgrading from "selling chips" to "binding computing power demands."
In the short term, this is positive for the AI infrastructure narrative.
If OpenAI gains more stable financing capabilities, it means future demand for data centers, GPUs, cloud computing, and computing power may continue to expand.
In the crypto world, perhaps the first to attract attention is not $BTC or $ETH, but rather the AI computing power-related track.
TAO's logic is to have decentralized AI networks, and the continuous expansion of the AI industry helps strengthen market expectations for decentralized computing power and model networks.
RENDER is closer to the GPU computing resource narrative. Demand for traditional AI computing power continues to grow, and the market may refocus on the value of distributed GPU networks.
The FET and ASI ecosystems may benefit from AI agents and intelligent economic narratives, provided market funds are willing to continue trading AI application directions.
But the risks are also obvious.
Nvidia's massive guarantees for clients mean that the financial relationships in the AI industry chain may become more complex.
If AI investment continues to expand but companies like OpenAI cannot keep up with commercial revenue, the market may re-examine this:
With these massive computing power investments, can they generate enough profits in the future?
Therefore, this news is not a simple positive for AI coins.
In the short term, it may strengthen the AI computing power narrative and drive capital attention in TAO, RENDER, FET, and other directions.
In the long term, it will depend on whether OpenAI can convert computing power investment into real revenue and whether AI infrastructure is over-financing.
AI competition has entered a new phase.
In the past, it was about model capabilities; now, it's about computing power, energy, data centers, and financing capabilities.
If NVIDIA truly guarantees $250 billion for OpenAI, it means the AI war is no longer just a technological competition but a global competition of capital and infrastructure.
Whether AI coins can continue to rise ultimately depends on real-world AI investments and whether they can truly convert into industry profits. After the US stock market opened tonight, the divergence in the market was visibly different. Storage and AI chips, which were previously hyped up, were sold off by capital throughout the entire process. Micron and SanDisk have both plunged consecutively, and Nvidia couldn't hold out and kept falling. Funds dared not continue to hold onto high-end hardware stocks, instead flocking to Apple and Microsoft for safe havens. To put it bluntly, the market has become especially timid now. No one wants to take over any growth asset with speculative attributes. Bitcoin and Ethereum have long been tied to the Nasdaq. Large institutions hold both US tech stocks and Bitcoin Ether. When the stock market loses money, crypto assets are sold off collectively to raise funds and hedge risks. Therefore, with the Nasdaq slightly weaker, Bitcoin remains under pressure and hovering around 63,000. Ethereum is more volatile, with its decline steadily outpacing Bitcoin. Cryptocurrencies relying on AI computing power narratives have seen the most severe declines. Nowadays, no one dares to arbitrarily push prices or dump them. Everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to be finalized in the early hours of tomorrow. It's hard to see a big rally in the evening; weak fluctuations are the main theme. To clarify the trend, it must wait until the interest rate announcement is finalized before it becomes apparent. After the news came out in the early morning, do you think the negative news has been exhausted and a rebound is happening, or will it continue to probe and dig pits?
$BTC $SNDK #韩股重挫8%, Changxin tops A-shares on its first day. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: OKX's masterclass premieres tonight, helping you understand the financial reports of four major tech giants 1️⃣ On July 30th at 2 PM Pacific Time, Amazon's Q2 earnings report is coming, and the fate depends on AWS 😮💨
2️⃣ Q1 AWS grew by 28%, with a profit margin of 37.7%, the ceiling is already very high 📈
3️⃣ For Q2, don’t just look at total revenue, focus on two words: growth + profit margin ⚖️
4️⃣ AI demand is strong, Bedrock customer spending increased 170% quarter-over-quarter, token volume hit a record 🔥
5️⃣ But new data centers, chips, and electricity costs have all increased, the real question is whether it’s profitable 💸
6️⃣ Fast growth doesn’t mean every dollar is profitable, a high profit margin might mean underinvestment 🫠
7️⃣ Next, look at capital expenditures and cash flow. Can AI investments be absorbed? Or is the return cycle lengthening? ⏳
8️⃣ Numbers speak for themselves. No matter how good the conference call story is, it can’t replace the financial segment report 📊
$BTC The 60-day rolling correlation coefficient between South Korea's KOSPI and Nasdaq 100 rose to 0.50, reaching the highest level since 2021, with the linkage between the two major capital markets tightening significantly.
There are three core factors behind the continuous improvement in linkage:
1. Index structure highly dependent on the semiconductor duo: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together account for more than half of the KOSPI, and the overall trend of the Korean market is firmly controlled by memory chip leaders;
2. Domestic chip companies deeply embedded in the US AI supply chain: These two Korean companies are core suppliers of HBM and DRAM memory chips to US tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. Increases or decreases in US tech companies' capital expenditures will directly affect the profitability prospects of Korean semiconductor manufacturers;
3. The Korean stock market has long shed its composite index attributes and gradually become a pure semiconductor sector index, with movements dependent on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Nasdaq AI sector.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
The impact of this change on investors is very significant:
First, the effect of cross-market risk diversification has significantly failed. Simultaneous allocation of US stock Nasdaq technology assets and Korean stocks can no longer hedge market fluctuations; the two tend to rise and fall in sync;
Second, market volatility will intensify further. If US AI investment contracts and leading companies like Nvidia pull back, combined with the prevalence of leveraged trading by Korean retail investors, KOSPI's downward decline is likely to be even greater;
Conversely, if global AI capital continues to expand and Korean storage companies' performance improves, the Korean stock market will also see a strong rally.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK Friends, the US market has opened, and SanDisk continues its downward trend tonight. Let's see what to do today! 1. News: Multiple negative factors resonate — SanDisk's recent crash was triggered by China's DRAM leader Changxin Technology (CXMT), which surged over 460% on its first day of A-share listing, with a market value surpassing 3 trillion yuan. The market is concerned that Changxin will accelerate its expansion after securing ample capital, breaking the current tight supply-demand balance of DRAM. Meanwhile, investor concerns about overcrowding the "AI storage deal" have intensified, and news that Nvidia may provide $250 billion in funding for OpenAI has further fueled doubts about "circular financing." SanDisk has dropped 47% from its June all-time high, with its market value evaporating by about $170 billion within a month. 2. Technical Aspects: Bearish Alignment, Initial Oversold Signs The current moving averages are in a complete bearish alignment, with prices far below MA5 (about 1364), MA10 (about 1448), and MA60 (about 1793) [0† Chart Data]. The core resistance range above is at 1230-1248 (FVG gap + order block), with stronger resistance at 1350-1365 (MA5 level). Short-term support below is at 1180-1185; if it is breached, it will test the key support at 1108; If it breaks again, the downside will open up to around 980. The technical indicator KDJ has entered an extremely oversold range (J value 1.29), indicating short-term demand for oversold rebound recovery. 3. Personal Opinion: SanDisk surged over 700% from its early year-end low, and although the current correction has been severe, it has still risen nearly 500% this year. Chang Xin passed it on in exchange1️⃣ 打仗了金價卻在跌？這才是最殘酷的真相 😮💨
2️⃣ 伊朗升級時黃金狂拉$500，現在戰爭還在它卻倒回去吐 💔
3️⃣ 連最強催化劑都守不住漲幅，代表這段行情可能結束了 🫠
4️⃣ 利率4.5%，拿黃金=每月付機會成本給美債，沒人要當冤大頭 📉
5️⃣ 土耳其從買家變賣家，最大金主反手砸盤 🔨
6️⃣ 美元太硬了，50年逆相關沒破，金價就難抬頭 💵
7️⃣ 晚夏流動性差，機構休假，多頭擠在門口出不來 🏃
8️⃣ 我的底線：$2800-$2900才見底。週收回$3250以上才算我錯 ⚖️
$BTC Global financial markets are entering a critical week characterized by significant uncertainty, increased volatility, and the potential for significant price swings across multiple asset classes. Pre-market conditions reveal a complex landscape: falling yields, falling oil prices, and geopolitical tensions vying for investor attention, while the Fed's upcoming policy decisions are the most significant event of the year. This comprehensive analysis examines current market conditions, assesses key technical levels, and provides strategic guidance for navigating this challenging trading environment. The yield curve fell by about 2 basis points across the board, reflecting heightened expectations for monetary easing and possibly hinting at concerns about economic growth prospects. Yield curve dynamics indicate that the bond market is pricing in a higher probability of rate cuts than previously anticipated, despite persistent inflation concerns and the Fed's commitment to maintain restrictive policies until inflation remains on track to return to target. The decline in yields provides some support to the stock market, though this is partially offset by other negative factors. Oil prices continue to fall amid hopes for a possible diplomatic breakthrough, which could ease geopolitical tensions and potentially increase supply. However, this optimistic narrative coexists with reports of new attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, especially the Abqaiq base, with the Houthis claiming responsibility. The tensions between these competing narratives create uncertainty in oil price direction, with potential supply disruptions posing upside risks while mitigating hopes continue to exert downward pressure on prices. This week's economic calendar is unusually dense, filled with high-impact events that could significantly influence market direction. US on WednesdayWhen the semiconductor sector was swept apart and the Nasdaq 100 approached a correction zone, panic quickly spread to the crypto market. However, the Dow Jones Index stubbornly closed higher on the same day, with most stocks rising against the trend. A fierce capital rotation is unfolding—is crypto assets a miscarriage, or is it the beginning of a crisis? Article Outline - 🔍 Semiconductor Avalanche: Has the AI Bubble Burst? - ⚔️ The Dow hits new highs and the truth behind most stocks' gains - 🌊 Cryptocurrency: Innocent fish? - 📊 What the trading ranking reveals: Hot money chasing chip concept tokens - 🧭 What's next to watch? Today's snapshot $BTC 63,012, -3.33% $ETH 1,872, -4.39% $QQQ -1.50%, $SPY -0.27% $DXY -0.03%, $GLD -1.47% $IBIT -3.13% VIX 19.34, +3.53% Dow 52,562.05, +0.67% I. Semiconductor Avalanche: Has the AI Bubble Burst? 🔍 Today's bloodiest corner of the market is undoubtedly semiconductors. Concerns over the sustainability of AI debt, combined with news of China's progress in advanced processes, triggered a concentrated sell-off in chip stocks. The depth of the semiconductor sector collapse dragged down the Nasdaq 100 index, causing it to slide into a corrective range. However, the fear index VIX only rose to 19.34, still at a relatively moderate level. This is not a full-blown crisis but rather a localized one$CORE Reset to zero or a comeback?
Short term: It is highly likely to continue to decline in the 0.015-0.020 range. Dog farms take advantage of every small rebound to sell off. 0.017 is not the bottom; below that, there may be 0.015, 0.012, or 0.010.
Mid-term: The biggest variable is whether Core's "Bitcoin Grid" narrative can truly take root. BitGo has integrated Core's institutional-level Bitcoin staking, but institutions come in to stake BTC for profit, not to take over CORE. The 2026 roadmap uses buybacks as the main supply management tool, but where will the buyback money come from? And it's the hard-earned money of retail investors!
The final heartfelt words:
CORE fell from 5.15 to 0.0175, a 99.7% decline, ranking 562nd in market capitalization. Bitcoin L2 narrative, non-custodial staking, institutional integration—the story is quite sexy. But canceling destruction, continuous unlocking, and selling from the dog farm—all three landmines are exposed. For those bottom-fishing now, think about whether you can hold out and push the price down to 0.01. Hold your hands and wait until the direction is clear before making your move. Remember, staying long in crypto is ten thousand times more important than making a lot of money! Meeting adjourned!Dehydrated all-day market data, strip away market noise, and focus only on the core information that truly influences capital flows. 👇 🌍 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ In a nutshell: Today's global market theme can be summed up in one word: decline. South Korea's KOSPI plunged 10.84%, A-share ChiNext dropped 7.35%, and Nikkei dropped nearly 4%. Although the Hong Kong stock market has seen relatively moderate declines, it has not been able to remain unaffected. Oil prices fell below $85. BTC fell below $63,000, and bulls completely abandoned resistance ahead of the FOMC. Pre-market sentiment in the U.S. stock market was under pressure, with funds watching from the sidelines throughout the session, and everyone was waiting for the interest rate decision early Wednesday morning. 🪙 Crypto | BTC falls below 63,000, FOMC bulls withdraw their grip Today, BTC was dragged down by panic in the Asia-Pacific region. Binance data shows BTC dipped to a low near $62,100, and is currently trading below $63,000, with very limited rebound momentum. 63,000 has shifted from support to resistance. Although bottom-fishing funds entered after inserting the needle at 62,100 during the day, even 63,000 failed to effectively recover — indicating that bulls were powerless to counterattack before the FOMC. In the derivatives market, the long-short ratio is imbalanced; if it falls below 62,000, it could trigger a chain liquidation. The market remained extremely restrained ahead of the FOMC. 👉 Uncle observes that BTC today is "dragging down due to Asia-Pacific panic + bulls actively reducing positions before FOMC."ETH @ $1,890: On the eve of the FOMC decision, is it a shakeout or a bearish trend?
In the 24 hours before the FOMC decision, ETH quickly fell from $1,980 to $1,870, a drop of over 5.5%, instantly weakening market sentiment. This article combines the latest on-chain data, institutional holding dynamics, and macro environment to deeply analyze the current bullish and bearish game landscape of ETH. Core conclusion: $1850 is the dividing line between bulls and bears—if it holds, the upward structure is likely to continue; if it falls below it, be alert to a trend turning bearish. The "floor price" support formed by institutional accumulation and the short-term catalyst from the FOMC decision will jointly determine ETH's next direction.
1. Market Snapshot: A Thrilling Jump on the Eve of the FOMC
On July 28, less than 24 hours before the Federal Reserve's July FOMC decision was announced, ETH experienced a rapid and intense pullback. The price quickly dropped from around $1,980 to $1,870, a single-day drop of over 5.5%, with about $700 million in long positions liquidated across the market. This decline not only erased the rebound gains of the past few days, but also pushed the just-recovered market sentiment back into the 'fear' zone—the Fear and Greed Index remained at a low of 27-28.
From a price structure perspective, ETH briefly fell to a 21-month low of $1,563 in early July, then rebounded about 25%, reaching $1,940 on July 21. Just as the market was hoping to break through the $2,000 mark, pre-FOMC safe-haven funds chose to exit early. This pattern of "buying expectations and selling facts" is not uncommon before major macro events.
But the key question is: is this a normal shakeout and chip swap during the uptrend, or a true signal of a bearish trend?
2. Positive factors: Institutions are "bottom-fishing" rather than "fleeing the top"
1. BitMine holdings surpass 5.79 million ETH, accounting for 4.8% of supply
On July 26, BitMine Immersion Technologies (NYSE: BMNR) announced that its ETH holdings had reached 5.79 million tokens, accounting for about 4.8% of the total ETH supply, with 85% (approximately 4.9 million tokens) fully staked. This data means that BitMine alone has locked in nearly 5% of the global ETH supply.
Looking back at BitMine's accumulation path: holding about 4.168 million tokens in January 2026, increasing to 4.661 million in March, surpassing 5 million in April, and reaching 5.79 million by the end of July. Tom Lee's "Alchemy of 5%" strategy is steadily advancing—targeting 5% of the total ETH supply (about 6.04 million coins), with completion now exceeding 95%.
More importantly, BitMine's staking strategy has a "double locking" effect: not only does it reduce circulating supply, but it also provides a continuous cash flow through an annualized staking yield (CESR) of about 2.8%, with an expected annualized staking income of $374 million. This closed-loop "buy + staking" model makes BitMine's holdings highly sticky, making large-scale selling nearly impossible in the short term.
2. Whale accumulation and exchange reserves hit multi-year lows
On-chain data shows that in July 2026, ETH whales are actively accumulating shares. For example, in the 0x2684 first 10 days of July, the entity withdrew 34,577 ETH and 250 WBTC from Binance, worth about $73.19 million, with most ETH transferred to staking protocols rather than liquidity wallets. F2Pool founder Wang Chun also accumulated 11,448 ETH within a 15-hour window.
Meanwhile, ETH exchange reserves have fallen to multi-year lows. A decline in exchange reserves usually means less selling pressure—holders prefer to keep assets in cold wallets or participate in staking rather than preparing to sell. This stands in stark contrast to retail market sentiment: the current retail fear index is in the "extreme fear" range, while big players are "greedy when others are afraid."
3. About 30% of ETH supply is staking, significantly reducing circulation pressure
Currently, about 36 million ETH are staked, accounting for roughly 30% of the total supply. This proportion continues to rise steadily. Staking not only locks up a large amount of ETH but also continuously reduces net supply through EIP-1559's burn mechanism. If BitMine's MAVAN network goes live in full operation, all 5.79 million ETH it holds will be staked, further intensifying the "liquidity vacuum."
4. ETH remains in a deeply discounted zone, with institutional demand significantly strengthened
The current ETH price is around $1,890, more than a 60% discount from the all-time high of $4,946 in August 2025. Despite the sharp price drop, institutional demand has clearly strengthened compared to the past. The launch of spot ETH ETFs, continued buying by treasury institutions like BitMine, and the steady development of the DeFi ecosystem all indicate that the medium- to long-term allocation logic for ETH has not changed.
Short-term pressure: Macro uncertainty remains the biggest variable
FOMC Resolution: Hawkish Risks Should Not Be Ignored
The July 28-29 FOMC meeting was Kevin Warsh's second meeting since he became Federal Reserve Chair. Current market pricing shows a probability of about 62-68% of rates unchanged and a rate hike probability of about 32-38%. The probability of this rate hike was only 10.7% on July 15, but it surged rapidly in just nine days, reflecting market concerns about sticky inflation.
The June FOMC meeting has already taught the market a lesson: although rates remained unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, "price stability" was mentioned more than ten times in the statement, and nine members expected at least one rate hike this year, causing the two-year Treasury yield to jump by 14.4 basis points and wiping out $1.2 trillion in market capitalization. Bitcoin fell from $65,600 below $64,000, and ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of $29 million in a single day.
#韩股重挫8%, Changxin tops the A-share market on its first day. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: OKX's masterclass premieres tonight, helping you understand the financial reports of four major tech giants. $ETH $BTC $SOL $CORE Short Selling Strategy (currently the highest win rate):
· Entry: Rebounded to 0.0185-0.0190 with shrinking volume
· Stop loss: above 0.022
· Target: first target 0.017, if it breaks below 0.015-0.016
· Leverage: 1-2x, position control within 1% of total capital
· Core logic: 99.7% decline + unlocked circulation + continued selling from Dog Farm
Long strategy (licking the edge): Only consider if there is a clear catalyst—(1) Major Core mainnet upgrade implemented; (2) Large-scale institutional buying announcements; (3) The price stabilized at 0.015 with increased volume, not hitting new lows for three consecutive days. Entry at 0.015-0.016, stop loss below 0.014, target 0.020-0.022. Keep your position within 0.5% of your total funds!
The most stable strategy (absolute wait-and-see): This coin is currently in the "zero phase in progress." A 99.7% drop, 562-ranked market cap, cancellation of burn mechanism, continuous unlocking—all four major mines have been exposed. Wait until the price confirms the bottom at 0.015, wait for a new narrative to emerge, and wait for the direction to become clearer before taking action!The screen is full of green, with only Microsoft ($XMSFT) 📈 showing red.
I opened the store in the morning, and after the morning rush, I leaned against the cashier counter and scrolled through my phone.
On the trending topics, I scrolled down—a sea of red. SAMSUNG down 9.41%, XSKHY down 8.57%, BTC down 2.36%, ETH down 2.90%, CL down 2.28%, BZ down 2.87%. The screen was full of green, it was numbing to look at.
Then suddenly I saw a line in red, $XMSFT, +0.63%. The only red number on the entire page, standing out like a person wearing a red coat in a crowd of green.
I stared at that red number for a few seconds—it was Microsoft. Microsoft is reporting earnings after the market closes tomorrow, with market expectations of revenue between 87.4-87.7 billion and earnings per share around 4.21. Azure's growth rate of 40% is a key market benchmark; if it passes, there will be relief, if not, the selling will continue. Also, the capital expenditure guidance for fiscal year 2027—if it keeps increasing, free cash flow will remain under pressure, likely leading to another "good earnings but stock price falls" scenario.
I checked yesterday's stock price; Microsoft closed near 389, basically unchanged. Everyone is waiting for the earnings report to land, no one dares to make the first move. The first to rise now is actually the most dangerous. Others are falling while it’s rising—don’t take it too seriously.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 $CORE Dog Manor's Conspiracy — Circulating supply 1.24B, unlocking is not over yet!
As of June 29, 2026, the circulating supply of CORE is about 1.24 billion tokens, with a maximum supply of 2.1 billion tokens. Nearly half of the tokens remain unlocked!
The dog dealer's strategy consists of three steps: (1) sell at the $5 high→ (2) keep dropping all the way to 0.017→ (3) slowly accumulate at the bottom, then sell again after the next rally rally. Some community users directly criticized: "Since January, I've been getting inflows almost every day, but only 7 days have been flowing out." Another user bluntly said, "Among the top ten holding addresses, one of them sold over 100 million cores in just one day." The chips in Gouzhuang's hands are enough to smash the price several times over!Global financial markets are entering one of the most critical weeks of this quarter, with several tech giants about to release their latest quarterly results. While traditional investors typically focus on revenue growth, profit margins, and future guidance, this earnings season carries far more significance than conventional metrics. Participants in both traditional and digital asset markets are highly focused on a central thread running through the 2026 corporate narrative: artificial intelligence and its transformative impact on business models, competitive positioning, and long-term growth trajectories. The tech industry is undergoing profound structural restructuring, with companies racing to integrate AI capabilities into core operations, develop proprietary AI solutions, and build large-scale infrastructure needed to support next-generation computing needs. This week's earnings reports from major companies will most clearly reveal whether the massive investments made in AI R&D and infrastructure are beginning to yield considerable returns, fully justifying the massive capital expenditures. More importantly, these results will provide key clues as to whether companies are maintaining aggressive spending plans or starting to scale back investment due to economic uncertainty or doubts about short-term investment returns. History shows a significant correlation between the performance of the tech sector and the sentiment of the cryptocurrency market, especially during periods when innovative narratives capture investors' imagination. When large companies report strong performance driven by technology adoption and forward-looking strategies, it often boosts overall risk appetite in global financial markets. This increase in risk appetite often translates into capital flows into alternative assets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum consistently being the main beneficiaries of this dynamic. Bitcoin continues to be a numberThe cold wind blowing through the US stock market has completely hit Dabing and Erbing
Tonight, the US stock market opened with a particularly obvious split in the market.
Chips and storage hardware were all frantically sold off by capital.
Micron plunged nearly 10% intraday, while SanDisk plunged over 11%.
Nvidia, TSMC, and ASML all continued to weaken, with the semiconductor index dropping as much as 5 points.
In contrast, Apple, Microsoft, and Google closed steadily, with funds flocking to safe havens.
To put it bluntly, people now dare not touch AI hardware assets that are being hyped at high prices.
Risk appetite has been falling steadily, while Bitcoin and Ethereum have long been linked to Nasdaq movements.
Classified as a high-volatility risk asset, once the US stock market deflated, the crypto world immediately came under pressure and declined.
Bitcoin has been retreating from the $65,600 high, repeatedly grinding around the $63,000 level.
Ethereum is even more volatile, with a drop even greater than Bitcoin's.
All computing power altcoins have fallen the worst, completely following the pace of memory chips.
Only MEME coins saw no support, accelerating their plunge as the market weakened.
There is also a key constraint: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is scheduled to be announced early tomorrow morning.
Large funds all choose to hold their coins and wait and see, without making large sell-offs or pushing prices.
So tonight, neither side can break out of a one-sided rally; the market will only fluctuate back and forth.
Second half prediction:
The weakness in US chip stocks is hard to reverse, and the Nasdaq ended with slight fluctuations.
Dabing and Erbing continue to struggle weakly, and even minor rebounds are unlikely to last.
The true direction of price fluctuations will only be revealed after the Fed's announcement.
With the early morning rate decision out, do you think the crypto sector will bottom out and rebound, or will it continue to decline?Why are storage prices still rising, but storage stocks are falling first?
Because the stock market looks further ahead. Everyone basically knows how high the profits are today; The biggest controversy now is whether there will be an oversupply in two or three years.
This scene had already been played out once in the previous new energy vehicle cycle.
In 2021, as demand for new energy vehicles exploded, global lithium supply could not keep up, causing the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate to rise from about 60,000 yuan/ton to nearly 600,000 yuan/ton, with the highest increase in two years being nearly tenfold.
In the supply chain, whoever is most scarce will have their profits concentrated first.
Lithium mining companies are making huge profits, while battery and car manufacturers have to bear ever-increasing raw material costs. In 2022, CATL's gross margin dropped from nearly 28% to around 15%, for a simple reason: lithium prices rose too quickly, and battery price hikes couldn't keep up.
High profits quickly attracted a large influx of capital.
Mine expansion, rising capital expenditures, and increasing long-term procurement agreements. The market has also begun to worry whether lithium will remain so scarce when this new capacity emerges in two or three years.
Therefore, lithium mining stocks often start falling before lithium prices truly peak.
When lithium carbonate prices plummeted in 2023, many thought automakers could finally turn all cost reductions into profits.
As a result, the automotive industry immediately entered a price war.
Tesla is cutting prices, BYD is following suit, and more and more brands are vying for market share. Batteries have indeed become cheaper, but the money saved hasn't all stayed with car manufacturers; a large portion ends up at lower prices.
Falling raw material costs and improving downstream profits still create a competitive landscape in the industry.
Today's AI industry is somewhat like the new energy vehicles of the past.
Storage factories correspond to lithium mines in the current year, cloud manufacturers correspond to vehicle manufacturers.
Over the past year, prices for HBM, DRAM, and enterprise SSDs have continued to rise, and memory manufacturers like SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung have seen significant profit improvements. Meanwhile, AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, and Oracle are all increasing purchases of GPUs, HBMs, and servers, and infrastructure costs are also rising.
At this stage, the most scarce segment has taken the most profits first.
But the market has already started to look backward.
In the next two to three years, if HBM, DRAM, and advanced packaging continue to expand production, how much longer can today's excess profits last? This is also why storage companies' performance is still strong, but their stock prices have already started to adjust.
However, a storage peak does not necessarily mean cloud providers will become the biggest winners in the next round.
Because on the large model side, the price war has actually begun.
OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, as well as Alibaba, DeepSeek, and Moon Darkside, are all continuously lowering model prices. Tokens are getting cheaper, inference costs keep dropping, and some models are even open for free.
If computing power supply becomes increasingly abundant in the future, cloud providers may continue to lower prices to attract customers.
By then, the cost improvements brought by storage price cuts may not all translate into the profit statements of AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud. Cheaper tokens, lower GPU rental prices, and larger free quotas could all pass on these dividends to customers.
So this round of storage stock adjustments can be understood using the new energy vehicle cycle:
When upstream is scarce, profits first concentrate upstream; After high profits stimulate expansion, stock prices will worry about supply release in advance; Once raw material prices really drop, how much profit downstream can keep depends on whether the industry starts a price war.
AI has now shown signs of this.
$SNDK1️⃣ It's true that ETH is outperforming BTC at this 🚀 stage
2️⃣ Reason 1: Robinhood launches a new chain that uses ETH as a fee, memes have land to live 🎭 on
3️⃣ Reason 2: Sharks like Arthur Hayes are fomo collecting ETH, cash flow is back 🐋
4️⃣ ETH ETF also just had an inflow of +9.23 million USD, BTC was withdrawn 📊
5️⃣ But "bottom earlier than BTC at $1500" is too early to conclude ⚖️
6️⃣ BTC is still a measure of risk. If BTC breaks, ETH is also difficult to stand alone 🫠
7️⃣ Strong ETH thanks to narrative: L2, meme chain, staking yield 3-4% 💎
8️⃣ Bottom Line: ETH can make a bottom first, but the confirmation must wait for BTC to hold the ground 💪
$BTC US stocks have peaked in stages; crypto investors entering the US market has become the final blow of the frenzy! Q4 is the best period for bottom-fishing. As US stocks peak and adjust, BTC faces its final drop! What I'm most grateful for this round is that I've been bearish on US stocks since June. Why? Because my good buddies have already entered the US market. If even they get in, isn't that a sign of a top? So, even though they occasionally transfer money in the US market, I resisted the temptation, otherwise my limited funds would be a pain! What deserves even more caution is the sentiment of the capital. As more and more crypto investors start pouring into U.S. stocks, treating tech stocks as the new wealth code, this is often a typical feature in the late stages of the cycle. If the Nasdaq enters a correction, it will be difficult for $BTC to remain completely independent, and when US stock liquidity contracts$BTC it could become the first asset to be sold off. My judgment: Q4 may be the key bottom-fishing window this year. If the US stock market undergoes a deep correction, risk release may actually be completed, and $BTC may see a final drop, washing out high leverage and restless capital to recharge for the next phase of the market. The market is at its most dangerous when no one is optimistic, but everyone feels this time is different.Micron 864 short position, with all remaining positions at 810 taking profit.
Originally, the final goal was 820, but I ended up earning another 10 points.
From 864 to 810, a total of 54 points, about 6.25%.
This take-profit is not because the bearish logic has disappeared.
Instead, the price has already fallen near the key uptrend line, with the previous low of 804 and the 800 round number level below.
A rapid surge to 810 in a short period indicates that bearish sentiment has been concentrated and released.
The closer you get to this area, the worse the break-even ratio for continued short chasing, and the probability of a sudden rebound actually increases.
So this short position is completely closed for now.
Next, I won't immediately go long or chase short positions at low levels.
Prepare to wait for a rebound to see if the price can stabilize above 820–830, and see if there is significant pressure after rebounding to higher levels.
Next, let's focus on two main trends:
✔ It regained the 820 level and continued to recover between 830 and 840
This indicates that this breakdown is more like a fake breakdown near the trendline; for a rebound, you can first look at 850–855.
However, until it stabilizes above 864, I still only define it as an oversold rebound and won't directly judge that the trend has reversed.
✔ The rebound failed to hold above 820–840, then broke out again and fell again
If the price rebound comes under pressure and the 4-hour chart again falls below 804–800, it indicates that the medium-term uptrend line may truly fail.
At that time, I will consider opening a new short position and further observe the 780–765 range.
But new short positions must wait for confirmation of "failed rebound + breakout again." Don't continue to chase short positions near 810 just because you just got it right.
If the price directly recovers to 850–855 and the short structure eases significantly, I will temporarily cancel my plan to open another short position.
This 864 to 810 transaction has been completed.
Profit is secured first.
Next, wait for a rebound and see if the market gives a second short opportunity.
Only record your own trades, not call out trades.GRASS's decline is the direct result of community expectations being completely shattered — when the market was eagerly awaiting positive news, what arrived instead was disappointment.
The drop was directly triggered by the "Token Holder and Network Participant Call" held on July 7, 2026. Prior to the call, market expectations had driven up the price, but the content of the meeting left the community deeply disillusioned:
- Rewards switched to USDC payouts: Rewards for bandwidth contributors were changed from GRASS tokens to USDC, directly reducing immediate demand for the GRASS token.
- No Phase 2 airdrop: The market had held extremely high expectations for the distribution of approximately 170 million GRASS tokens, but the call explicitly ruled out any new token airdrop.
- Extremely low user returns: Many users who had been running nodes for months or even years received only a few dollars in rewards, sparking widespread outrage.
Additionally, upcoming token unlocks have continued to create an overhang of selling pressure. Positive signals such as the team's forecast of approximately 52 million in revenue for the second half of 2026 were completely drowned out by the community's overwhelmingly negative sentiment.
$GRASS The three major indices have completely split up. The Dow Jones rebounded and rose, stabilizing the market with traditional consumer blue chips. The Nasdaq edged lower and weakened, all dragged down by chip and storage hardware technologies. The S&P index is basically moving sideways, with neither bulls nor bears daring to launch a major offensive. 1. Extreme Tech Stocks at Both Ends: Losing Money Downward Tier (Main Bear Sellers) The storage sector remains the hardest-hit area for the market, with the decline completely unstoppable. SanDisk has plunged 11% cumulatively, with a two-day drawdown of nearly 20%. Micron Technology fell around 7%, while Western Digital and Seagate also plunged 6%-8%. South Korea's SK Hynix US ADR fell below its issue price, hitting its lowest price since listing. AI computing chips plunge collectively: Nvidia fell nearly 5% in a single day, wiping out $250 billion in market value in a single day. AMD, TSMC, and lithography machine ASMAC fell 4%-6%. The core reason remains unchanged: Changxin's IPO breaks the global storage monopoly, and capital collectively remains pessimistic about the long-term profits of overseas chip giants. AI hardware prices were wild earlier, but now they're rushing to cash out and run away. Counter-trend rise: Safe-haven tier: Funds are fleeing high-volatility chips in a frenzy, grouping together in stable software and consumer technology. Apple continues to climb, firmly overtaking Nvidia and reclaiming the top spot in global market capitalization. Microsoft and Google both closed higher, and established giants with stable cash flow became safe havens for capital. 2. How U.S. stocks are gradually driving the rise and fall of virtual currencies Bitcoin and Ethereum have long been linked to the Nasdaq, with strong interactivity. 1. Nasdaq falls, chips collectively sell off = risk appetite declines, funds fear assetsOpening the decline rankings, the scene is quite bleak
$BEAT Plummeted 29.78% in a single day, followed closely by ESP, SNXX, and KORU, all with declines exceeding 15%. Stocks that were heavily speculated by funds in the early period almost simultaneously surged in volume and plunged.
Why did it still crash without any sudden major negative news?
Because this round of decline was not triggered by news, but more like a concentrated withdrawal of funds
The previous gains were too strong, with a large number of profit-taking positions piled up at high levels; Insufficient spot market demand, with the market mainly driven by contract funds. Once the market weakens, speculative funds flee first, high-leverage long positions are followed by liquidation, and selling orders further drive prices down.
Ultimately, a chain of death forms:
Funds retreat ➡️, breaking support ➡️, long positions liquidated ➡️, panic selling ➡️, and another decline
These stocks also share several common points:
🔸 The previous huge gains are all driven by sentiment
🔸 Liquidity is thin, and large orders can easily pierce the market floor
🔸 Contract positions are crowded, and long leverage is too high
🔸 Lack of sustained spot capital support
🔸 Unlocking, issuing additional issues, or built-in leverage further amplify volatility
It looks like a sudden crash, but in reality, the chips have long been loosened