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BTC 100K-140K vs. ETH 5K-8K: These price targets have been partially priced in, but structural risks in the derivatives market have not yet been fully priced in
Is the current market expectation of BTC breaking through 100K overcrowded?
The target ranges in the original post (BTC 100K-140K, ETH 5K-8K, SOL 300-500, etc.) reflect linear extrapolation under a bull market continuation scenario, but overlook a key variable: whether these targets have been prepriced in by current derivatives market position costs, funding rates, and open interest.
Priced portion: BTC has formed a large number of open options contracts in the 90K-100K range, with the 100K strike price being the biggest pain point, and a large amount of call option positions piling up here. This means there is strong Gamma resistance near 100K, and seller pressure in this area needs to be absorbed before the price breaks out. ETH's 5K target faces a similar structure, but ETH options market depth is much lower than BTC, and the risk of slippage and volatility amplification during breakouts is higher.
Unpriced variable: The current perpetual contract funding rate remains positive and at a historic high, indicating crowded long leveraged positions. If BTC experiences a daily pullback of more than 5% within the 90K-100K range, it could trigger a chain liquidation, causing the price to rapidly approach 80K. In this scenario, all the aforementioned altcoin targets will be significantly revised downward, especially for leverage-intensive assets like SOL and SUI.
Bullish path: If BTC completes full turnover in the 90K-100K range, the funding rate falls back to neutral levels, and open interest contracts instead of expands, opening space above 100K. At this point, ETH's 5K target is feasible, provided the ETH/BTC rate rises from the current 0.035 to above 0.04.
Bearish risk: If open interest continues to grow rather than decline after BTC breaks 100K, a typical top divergence structure forms. Historically, the tops in April and November 2021 were accompanied by rapid declines after peaking open contracts. Currently, CME BTC futures open interest is close to its all-time high. If there is a three-day consecutive decline in open interest, caution should be warranted for a trend reversal.
Failure condition: If BTC experiences a single-day drop of more than 10% near 90K, or ETH falls below 3,500 and cannot be recovered within three days, all target ranges above need to be lowered by 30%-50%.
Conclusion: These price targets are reasonable under a bull market continuation scenario, but the current leverage structure and overheated funding rates in the derivatives market make the risk of short-term corrections significantly higher than the probability of the target moving upward. Investors should prioritize changes in open interest and funding rate repairs, rather than directly betting on the target price.
Do you think the current leverage level in the derivatives market has reached the point where active reduction is needed?🚨 Everyone's watching AI chips... but the real battle might be happening in memory.
China just made its biggest move yet.
CXMT (ChangXin Memory) debuted on the STAR Market with a 3.31 trillion yuan valuation, instantly becoming the largest stock on China's A-share market. 🔥
That means the global memory race is no longer just Samsung vs. SK Hynix.
Just last week, Anthropic locked in memory supply deals with Samsung and SK Hynix, while Nvidia strengthened its AI partnerships in Korea.
Now, China has officially entered the conversation with a publicly traded memory giant. 👀
The market reacted fast.
KOSPI surged more than 1.7% at the open before reversing, as investors began pricing in the possibility of a third major DRAM player. 📉
From here, keep your eyes on two things:
📌 $DRAM contract prices
📌 CXMT's capacity expansion
If supply ramps faster than demand, pricing power could come under pressure—even for today's leaders.
The big question is simple:
Can AI demand support three global memory giants, or is a price war inevitable? 🤔
How are you playing this theme—Korean chip stocks, AI names, or China's A-shares? 👇
#CXMTMemoryIPO
#DailyOrbit The remaining funds in the crypto market are rotating rapidly. The easiest trading pattern is to chase the rally—wait for the rally to slow down, then shift your funds and attention elsewhere, then open a short position to push the price down.
$ZEC, $HYPE, $LIT are all recent cases, but this trick has been going on for a long time.
I've noticed traders are once again being swayed by $ETH's sentiment—it did outperform $BTC a bit stronger, while $BTC has been fairly positive this month.
$BTC Usually, July rises and August falls, and with the 'exiting the crypto crowd' already taking over, summer months have become even less attractive.
What I mean is: be firm in your stance, but also flexible. If you're chasing the rise, that's fine, but don't be fooled by the illusion that "prices will only go up."
Take profits when necessary, and be ready to switch perspectives once the rally stalls.
Most of the volatility is driven by trend trading—which often happens before spot prices rise, and currently spot market participation remains noticeably insufficient.
Be patient. 🧠Onchain markets called it before the opening bell even rang.
On July 27, ChangXin Memory (CXMT) closed its Shanghai STAR Market debut up 465.82%, reaching a 3.28 trillion yuan valuation and becoming the largest company on the A-share market. Weeks before the shares ever changed hands, an onchain pre-IPO contract was already trading it, opening at a $5 reference price and running to a peak of $8.64. For most overseas investors locked out of the deal, onchain was the only way to price the story early.
A few figures to sit with:
· Closed +465.82%, with an intraday high near +535%
· Over 140 billion yuan in turnover, the first A-share ever to top 100 billion in a single day
· At $8.6 billion raised, the biggest Chinese semiconductor IPO on record and the largest one-day pop among the world's 10 biggest IPOs this year
This wasn't just a hot listing. It sits on top of an AI-driven memory supercycle. Surging AI demand is squeezing global DRAM supply, which is why a single Shanghai debut could send shockwaves straight through US and Korean memory names: SanDisk fell 11% and Micron slid the same day, and the following day Korea's KOSPI widened losses to 8% with SK Hynix down 11% and Samsung off over 9%.
The real takeaway for us: people love to call prediction and onchain pre-market venues "just gambling." Yet here they put a live, tradable price on a record-breaking IPO weeks before a single share changed hands.
Would you trust an onchain pre-market price over a traditional analyst's estimate? And have you ever actually traded a pre-market or prediction contract?
#CXMTDebutShockwave Federal Reserve July Decision: Don’t Bet on the Outcome, Watch the Wording
At 2 AM Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision.
Will they cut rates?
The market has basically priced in:
Most likely no change.
What really moves the market isn’t the interest rate number.
It’s how a few words in the statement are changed.
Three key areas:
1. What is said about inflation
If it remains: Inflation remains elevated → Market interprets this as hawkish, rate cut expectations remain on hold.
If changed to: Inflation is making further progress → Dovish, the market will start pricing in a September rate cut early.
2. What is said about employment
If it continues: Labor market remains strong → Neutral.
If changed to: Labor market is moving toward balance → Market will see this as the Fed starting to focus on employment risks.
3. Dual mandate risks
The most critical question now: What is the Fed more worried about? Inflation? Or employment?
If inflation risk is emphasized: → Hawkish.
If employment pressure is emphasized: → Dovish.
My personal view:
The statement may show a slight dovish tilt.
But Powell’s speech likely won’t directly confirm a September rate cut.
More likely: wording leaves room, verbal tone remains cautious.
How about $BTC?
If dovish: Dollar and US Treasury yields ease. Risk assets may rebound.
BTC focus: 66-67K range.
If neutral: Market continues to wait for data.
BTC likely: consolidating and digesting.
If unexpectedly hawkish: Risk assets will come under pressure first.
BTC key support: around 63K.
Don’t take sides prematurely.
Wait for the 2 AM statement to see the first wave of money voting.The July 28 ADP weekly employment data dropped to 15,000, a signal of a weakening labor market, effectively reinforcing the logic that "the economy does not need further tightening," which aligns well with Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's framework that rate hikes should not be used to address supply-shock inflation, thereby reducing the likelihood of a hawkish surprise at the July FOMC meeting; Combined with the current 68.5% expectation of unchanged rates and a neutral forward-looking guidance, this data, as a marginally dovish input, not only provides short-term support for risk assets like Bitcoin but also further confirms the Fed's likely policy direction to hold steady.This exact kinda opinion was being tweeted every BTC/ETH 4y cycle top
Bull markets always ended in a pretty consensus manner
I doubt this is the final blow though, maybe a few more months for a reversal#SK海力士#业绩暴增近6倍，股价却剧烈震荡！读懂存储超级周期的两面性
一边是史诗级业绩预期，一边是资本市场恐慌杀跌，近期SK海力士的走势，完美演绎当下全球存储赛道的巨大分歧。
市场一致预测，SK海力士二季度营业利润有望同比暴涨接近6倍，单季利润甚至超过2025全年水平，营业利润率冲击75%以上，盈利能力比肩头部晶圆大厂。
这份亮眼成绩单背后，核心底牌就是HBM高带宽内存。作为英伟达核心供应商，SK海力士手握全球HBM超57%市场份额，大量产能通过长期协议被海外云巨头锁定，订单排至2027年后。叠加通用DRAM、NAND价格持续回暖，AI服务器需求爆发，推动公司盈利迈上全新台阶。
但矛盾点随之而来：基本面创新高，近期股价却连续大幅回调，ADR多次出现单日大跌。资金担忧的隐患清晰可见：
1、前期涨幅巨大，估值已经充分透支景气预期。年初至今股价涨幅惊人，资金开始博弈后续景气度能否持续维持高位；
2、存储周期的底色并未消失。虽然AI创造全新增量，但三星、美光持续加码HBM研发与产能，远期供给压力悬而未决；一旦AI资本开支增速放缓，行业供需格局随时可能生变；
3、资金提前避险。重磅财报前夕，不少资金选择落袋观望，害怕“利好落地即是兑现”。
映射A股存储板块，两条线索要分清
✅情绪联动：SK海力士作为全球存储风向标，股价波动会直接影响国内存储产业链情绪。外围企稳，有望带动存储模组、先进封装板块情绪修复；若持续走弱，赛道短期承压难以避免。
✅产业逻辑区分：
海外巨头赚HBM红利，侧面印证高端存储长期需求旺盛；同时也给国内厂商留出国产替代窗口期。长鑫科技产业链、存储设计、封测、设备材料企业迎来追赶机遇。
⚠️必须规避误区：
不要简单把海外存储巨头涨跌直接等同于A股同方向行情。当前市场属于存量博弈，单纯蹭存储概念的小票弹性大、风险更高；具备真实订单、深度绑定国产产线的标的，拥有独立基本面支撑。
短期来看，即将披露的财报将成为全球存储板块重要分水岭。如果业绩与指引超预#加拿大球迷俱乐部[超话]# ，有望修复市场悲观情绪；反之，赛道或迎来新一轮估值消化。
客观看待本轮行情：AI重构存储需求，超级周期的长期逻辑没有消失，但短期拥挤交易带来的波动，所有人都需要承受。
⚠️本文仅行业资讯复盘交流，不构成任何投资建议。#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 $SKHYNIX $SPCX was sold too early. Built a position around 108.69, took profit and exited at 109.58. Afterwards, it rebounded all the way to 117.7, looks like I missed out on seven or eight points. With 50x leverage, that’s three to four times the profit slipping away right before my eyes, commonly called—selling too early.
But I don’t regret it. Every trade is a good lesson in training our trading discipline. Each trade composes our complete trading life. Chapter 44 of the Tao Te Ching says: Knowing contentment avoids disgrace; knowing when to stop avoids danger; thus one can endure long. Knowing satisfaction prevents humiliation from greed; knowing when to stop prevents falling into danger. Only by this can one last long.
Earlier I emphasized that our judgment of 110 is a critical dividing line. A valid break below 110 means 107 is our risk bottom line. Therefore, the closer to 107, the greater the risk, but it also means higher cost-effectiveness, making it a position worth building gradually. When the price rebounds from 107 and returns near 110, for me, this completes the first stage trading goal. First, realize profits and leave uncertainty to the market. If the market continues to strengthen and holds above 110, it means the market has entered a new price platform. At this point, looking for new entry opportunities is far more in line with trading discipline than stubbornly holding one position and fantasizing about selling at the highest point. Real trading is not about guessing the highest or lowest points but at every price platform: taking limited risk on the left side; realizing certain profits on the right side; thenMicron rebounded to 830, and I opened another short position.
After the last short at 864 and all profit-taking at 810, I stopped chasing at low levels.
Instead, they followed the original plan: after it rebounded, they would look for a second opportunity to short the market.
Today, Micron quickly rebounded from around 789 to 830.
But the price still hasn't truly recovered 840.
At the same time, 820–830 is also the rebound zone after the previous trend line was broken.
So I chose to retry shorting at the 830 small position.
This order did not mean Micron's fundamentals collapsed.
Again, under weak sector sentiment, the price rebound came under pressure and followed the second stage of decline.
Next, take profit at four positions:
✔ 815–810, the first take-profit zone
✔ 810 continues to fall, then look at previous lows between 795 and 789
✔ 789 has effectively broken below 789, with remaining positions continuing to watch between 780 and 765
✔ 765–780 rebounded and didn't recover, with the ultimate target at 735
735 is the ultimate extension target for this short position, but it is not guaranteed to arrive.
Only when the previous low and support below are repeatedly broken will I continue to hold the last small position.
If a lower shadow with increased volume appears midway or regains a key position, it will also be taken in early.
Stop loss at 850.
Regaining the 840 level indicates that the rebound strength is beginning to exceed expectations.
If it continues to break through 850, the logic of this rebound short will completely fail, and you will immediately cut your losses and exit.
The last profit was during the first price drop.
This move is the second stage after the failed rebound.
If you're wrong, just accept it at 850.
By the way, take profits in batches, and on the last small position, try to see 735.
Only record your own trades, not call out trades.$ETH at $1880, are you cutting losses?
Let's look at the surface first: pre-event risk aversion, panic sell-off
Yesterday it was still hovering around 1950-1980, now it directly dropped back to 1880, down nearly 4% in 24 hours. Long and short positions on all contracts exploded, retail investors are panicking. Since the June low of 1550, it has rebounded 25-30%, now retesting the 1850-1880 range, RSI is exactly 54 neutral, MACD shows a short-term sell signal. Either it holds 1850 and continues to push to 2000, or if it breaks down, it will test 1800.
First thing: ETF net inflows have been positive for five weeks, why are you still scared?
In the past week, ETF net inflows were $104 million, with BlackRock's ETHA as the biggest buyer, adding $9.23 million on July 27 alone. Cumulative net inflows have exceeded $11 billion, with AUM reaching $10.65 billion. Institutions have been continuously buying in the 1880-1970 range for weeks, yet you are guessing the top?
BitMine holdings have directly reached 5.79 million ETH, accounting for 4.8% of circulating supply, most of which are staked.
Second thing: Will the FOMC cause a rise or fall? The answer is tomorrow night!
The Fed will announce its interest rate decision, current rates are 3.50%-3.75%. What is the market most afraid of? That Powell will be hawkish, saying "inflation is stubborn, considering rate hikes."
The market has already priced in most hawkish rhetoric. If tonight is dovish (rates unchanged + weakening rate hike signals), ETH will rocket to 1950-2000. If hawkish, it will retest 1820-1850. This is a typical event-driven market.
Third thing: Glamsterdam upgrade delayed to Q3, but this is actually good news!
Many panic at the word "delay." Here's the truth: the delay is to raise the gas limit to a higher level, separate proposers and builders, making MEV fairer. In short, they are preparing a big move.
Lido staking module migration is progressing, 30% of supply is staked and locked, greatly reducing liquid selling pressure. EIP-1559 burns tokens daily.
Key levels
Resistance above: 1900-1920 → 1950-1960 → 2000 → 2100-2200
Support below: 1850 → 1820-1830 → 1800
Short-term traders:
Clear positions or hold minimal positions before FOMC. After the decision: go long directly if dovish, target 1950-2000; if hawkish, buy at 1820-1850 with stop loss at 1780.
Swing traders:
Build long positions in batches within 1850-1880, stop loss below 1820, target 1950-2000, if breaking 2000, look to 2100-2200. Continuous ETF inflows are the biggest confidence.
Long-term believers:
Buy and hold blindly between 1800-1880 for 1-2 years. Target 3500-4000 (rate cut cycle + continuous ETF inflows + Glamsterdam launch) $BTC AMD单月回调23%反映出市场正通过收缩高弹性持仓重估AI基础设施回报周期，核心矛盾在于高估值倍数与8月4日财报指引容错率过低之间的挤压。
受AI资本开支回收周期疑虑冲击，费城半导体指数单日重挫6%，高贝塔属性的 $AMD 单日下跌近10%至446附近，避险资金优先锁定高远期市盈率资产的获利盘。由于远期市盈率已达59倍且TTM市盈率高居170倍，过高的溢价导致资金池在风险偏好回落时发生集中去杠杆。
驱动行情的第一要素是8月4日Q2财报对算力开支持续性的验证，第二要素是前期已被打满的盈利预期，第三才是Q1数据中心57%的同比增长等历史基本面。Wedbush将2027年每股收益预期大幅上调至14.74，使得博弈重心彻底转向财报指引能否兑现超预期增长。
上行剧本触发条件为8月4日财报营收突破112亿指引上限且后续算力开支指引超预期，观察变量为数据中心业务增速能否维持高位。在此情景下，挤压的风险偏好将重新释放，推升股价向华尔街平均目标价570及前高584区间修复；若冲高至550附近成交量缩减，则反弹信号失效。
下行剧本触发条件为财报营收仅平指引或对AI硬件需求给出保守展望，观察变量为机构卖出席位集中度与400支撑位的换手情况。如果指引未达极高期待，高估值倍数将面临二次砸盘，多头仓位踩踏可能导致股价直接向400关口下方下修；若在400关口出现大笔主动买盘筑底，则二次下修剧本失效。
未来7天最重要的观察变量是8月4日Q2财报发布前机构仓位的去杠杆节奏，以及半导体板块高贝塔持仓的风险偏好修复情况。
#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 #美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落$CARDS This 14-point rally instantly silenced the square. According to OKX's real-time data, the trading volume was only 624 KUSDT, a classic case of wealth on paper. $OL also dropped 11 points, while cross-chain star $ZRO reversed and dropped nearly 10%, clearly draining liquidity. Don't just stare blankly at the candlesticks—the root cause is the Bitcoin ETF. Recently, insiders have been rumbling that a certain market maker privately complained that ETF funds are almost like a remote control for manipulators to harass retail investors. When there was net inflow, the whole market followed suit and shouted for a bullish pullback, but the price didn't budge at all; Once everyone was complacent, a sudden net outflow was launched, and contract bulls lined up collectively to the rooftop. The core mechanism is particularly sneaky: ETFs settle after hours, smart money moves spot during the day, waits for the fund's net asset value update to resell at night, and leaves a false breakout for investors to trap. What's worse is that some institutions, seeing ETFs losing blood for several consecutive days, anticipate market panic and open short positions on CME in advance. After retail investors cut losses, they reverse and bottom-fish, clearly cutting losses. The image is very much like the office building with its lights off downstairs at 3 a.m. at Wangjing SOHO, abstract like the profit and loss curve of our account. In short, when trading small coins now, you should first glance at the Bitcoin ETF fund dashboard. Otherwise, you might think you're bottom-fishing, but you're actually fueling the yacht of Wall Street tycoons. The quality of your recent content has clearly reached a new level Expectations for rate hikes are heating up rapidly.
Data changes:
• Early July: The market priced in two rate cuts this year
• July 23: The probability of two rate hikes within the year is close to confirmation
• 50bps rate hike probability: 0% → 33%
Where are the variables? Oil prices. The US-Iran conflict pushed Brent oil above $90, and inflation expectations changed overnight.
If oil prices continue to rise, the probability of rate hikes will increase. $BTC $ETH $SOL $AAVE $LINK $UNI $MSFT $MU $SNDK $MSFT $AMZN $META $GOOGL$BEAT is flashing green, but don’t let the color fool you. Price looks decent, but volume is not. There’s no real fuel for a breakout here. Feels like capital is rotating into a few selected names — not a full-blown altcoin rally. OI is declining while volume stays flat. Traders are picking their spots, not chasing every pump. Liquidity leaders right now: $JELLYJELLY, $OPG, $SLX, $LAB, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP, $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS Key anchors: 🟠 $BTC — liquidity base 🔵 $ETH — instituti$ETH $BTC Liying Crypto Chat: 7.29 Latest Market Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)
Currently, Bitcoin is at 63850, and this market situation makes people feel uneasy. The recent trend is like a roller coaster, sometimes surging up and sometimes dropping down. The EMA moving average system shows the short-term EMA7 around 63555, the long-term EMA120 at 64545, with the price oscillating in between, indicating a temporary balance of bullish and bearish forces. The MACD indicator's DIF and DEA are both below the zero line showing signs of a golden cross, which is a potential rebound signal. Regarding Bollinger Bands, the price is running below the middle band at 64330, with support at the lower band 62620 and resistance at the upper band 66039. Overall, the market is in a weak consolidation phase, but the downward momentum is weakening.
Short-term strategy reference:
Buy zone 63000-62500, stop loss at 62000, target 64500 aiming for 65000
Sell zone 65000-65500, stop loss at 66000, target 64500 aiming for 63500
Ethereum
Family, Ethereum's current price is 1914, and the overall direction is still upward. The current decline looks more like a pause after a strong rise, which we call a healthy correction. EMA120 is steadily supporting from below; as long as the price does not effectively break this lifeline, the bullish trend remains intact. The current oscillation is actually digesting previous profits and accumulating strength. It is currently a critical period of bullish and bearish struggle. The Bollinger Bands middle band near 1920 forms short-term resistance, with the price oscillating in between. MACD is likely to form a low-level golden cross, which is a strong reversal signal. The current volume-reduced correction is precisely repairing overbought technical indicators, making room for subsequent rises.
Short-term reference points
Buy zone 1880, defense at 1830, stop loss at 1800, target 1960 aiming for 2000
Sell zone 1980, defense at 2010, stop loss at 2040, target 1920 aiming for 1890
The above content is exclusively created by Liying. Please indicate the source when reprinting! Article release and review have delays, and the market changes rapidly. The above suggestions are for reference only; trade at your own risk. #韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 $BTC
BTC is slipping with short-term momentum fading and the 4H structure looking vulnerable after a weak rebound.
Bias: SHORT BTC | Entry 63,707.10 - 64,090.50
Take Profits:
TP1 61,981.84 (+3%)
TP2 60,064.87 (+6%)
TP3 56,230.94 (+12%)
Stop Loss: 67,093.74 (-5%)
The 1H and 4H charts are losing traction as price keeps failing to reclaim prior support, turning that area into overhead supply. Sellers are defending every bounce and the latest pullback came with cleaner downside volume than the rebound, a sign the move is still driven by distribution. If BTC cannot reclaim the broken intraday range, liquidity below the local lows looks exposed and a retest lower is likely.
Also watching: ETH, SOL
#OKXTraderVoices SanDisk (SNDK) is one of the standout performers in the S&P 500 in 2026, with a year-to-date gain approaching 900%. However, in July, the situation sharply declined, plunging 38.83% in a single month, closing at $1,390.95 on July 20, and as of July 28, the latest price had further slipped to around $1,209.02. From the technical chart, the current price is well below the short-term moving averages (MA5 around 1365, MA10 around 1448, MA30 around 1662), showing a typical bearish pattern. The core resistance range is concentrated between $1230 and $1248, with short-term support at $1204. If it breaks below this, attention should be paid to the key defense level between $1180 and $1185. If it falls below $1108 further, the downside will be fully opened. On the fundamentals, SanDisk's Q3 revenue surged 251% year-on-year, and long-term supply agreements totaling $42 billion have been signed, providing strong certainty for future performance. Of the 25 covered analysts, 21 gave a bullish rating with a consensus target price as high as $1,803. However, short-term market sentiment has been suppressed by multiple factors, including concerns that Meta's sale of computing power has triggered concerns about a peak in AI infrastructure, and a slowdown in inventory digestion in the storage industry, all of which put pressure on stock prices.
In the crypto world, SanDisk's tokenized stock SNDK launched on the Solana network on June 25. In its first week of launch, on-chain trading volume exceeded $70 million, with 48,722 transactions in 24 hours, regarded as an important experiment combining on-chain native DeFi with traditional assets. Meanwhile, on decentralized derivatives platforms like Hyperliquid, SanDisk has become a popular contract asset. The one-hour liquidation amount of SanDisk contracts across the entire network once surged to third across the internet, behind only Bitcoin and Ethereum, with a long-short ratio as high as 10.7 to 1, indicating extremely unbalanced one-sided betting sentiment. On-chain whale activity is also worth watching: a major investor heavily held about $19.39 million long on a basket of semiconductor stocks, with unrealized losses reaching $7.67 million, with SanDisk contributing 84% of the losses from single items; Another SNDK largest long (address 0x6ba) held a position of about $7.73 million, with unrealized gains once reaching $1.43 million, but this has shrunk significantly as the price has fallen. These data indicate that on-chain leverage mechanisms are bringing traditional stock trading into a new dimension of the crypto battlefield, while also significantly amplifying volatility risks. When the storage sector encounters regulatory or industry headwinds, on-chain long positions are often the first to be impacted.
Overall, SanDisk is caught between the long-term narrative of the "AI storage supercycle" and a sharp short-term correction. The long-term logic remains solid, but the technical outlook is bearish and sentiment fragile in the short term. On-chain data, on the other hand, vividly reveals the new ecosystem created by the deep integration of traditional tech stocks and crypto leveraged funds—a highly volatile environment that both breeds opportunities and hides huge risks. It should be emphasized that the above content is for market information only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrencies and leveraged trading carry extremely high risks, so please make decisions with caution.SOXSUSDT (Index Concept Long)
- Entry range: 58.0~60.5
- Stop-loss level: 53.5
- Take profit tier 1: 68.5
- Take-profit tier 2: 76.0
LITUSDT (privacy concept long position)
- Entry interval: 2.16~2.26
- Stop-loss level: 1.98
- Take profit level 1: 2.62
- Take profit second tier: 2.98
LQTYUSDT (Stablecoin Concept Long)
- Entry range: 0.197~0.205
- Stop-loss level: 0.180
- Take profit level 1: 0.240
- Take profit second tier: 0.275
PIPPINUSDT (New Coin Concept Long)
- Entry range: 0.0152~0.0159
- Stop-loss level: 0.0140
- First take-profit tier: 0.0185
- Take profit level 2: 0.0210
$AEON $KAITO $LAB
#停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day
#新手必看: Everything you need is here
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 $SNDK crashes another 10%! Chip stocks are slaughtered; can the Nasdaq be rescued tonight?
If US stocks, KOSPI, and chip stocks plunge, the dollar strengthens, and long-term yields remain high, then financial conditions have already been proactively tightened by the market. The Fed's Waller can completely avoid cutting rates on July 30 but maintain a hawkish tone! Let the high yields and the market deleverage to help the Fed achieve its tightening goals.
Besides, this drop ignores the US Treasury factor: last week, the 10-year Treasury yield broke through 4.7%, after which crude oil and US stocks plummeted. Friends familiar with Trump and the US capital markets know this is no coincidence. Previously, there was criticism about Trump's usual Taco not reacting, but this time the reaction was so strong it caused direct stress! Various attributions have forgotten the root cause.
High US Treasury yields act like a pump draining market cash flow, especially since last week's oil prices did not push yields down, which is very scary!
This means AI companies are now facing a brutal comparison! Buy 30-year Treasuries locking in over 5% nominal yield, or buy AI stocks bearing risks of valuation, technology routes, Chinese competition, capital expenditure, profit realization, and so on.
Many AI projects themselves still need financing costs close to or even higher than Treasury yields. When the risk-free rate is only 2%, the narrative story is valuable, but when the 30-year Treasury exceeds 5%, profits that can only be realized ten years later will be heavily discounted.
Adding to this, last weekend's news that Nvidia might provide about $250 billion in financing guarantees for OpenAI's data center project made the market recall Nvidia's previous clumsy cloud ladder tactics, making the market feel the AI bubble's costs are too high to sustain, triggering panic.
When US stocks fall and Treasuries show no improvement, and other major assets do not rise, it may indicate that funds have not completely exited but have temporarily converted to cash to wait and see. This also explains why Korea's drop is not more severe than the US's; because of the high US long-term yields, there is an extra capital squeeze effect on the Korean market, corresponding to foreign investors' massive sell-offs and exits, a cross-verification.
However, the pressure on Changxin's theme and internal AI bearish factors are already a reality; the entire narrative cannot be replaced by US Treasury logic. I no longer have the courage to operate as I did two years ago. I used to stand out, holding a sickle and cutting flesh from a whale, but now I had become a whale's companion.From 2350 crashing down to 1150, SNDK halved twice, do you dare to bottom-fish?
First, look at the surface: avalanche-like drop, panic at its peak.
From the historical high of 2350+ in June to around 1150 today, it has more than halved in two months. The daily chart has broken below all moving averages, MACD bearish momentum is expanding, RSI has dropped to the 30-40 oversold zone, and volume has surged confirming selling pressure. Weekly chart continuously breaking support, monthly chart retraced over 40%, either an oversold violent rebound or continued slow decline to find bottom.
This is the most fragmented market since the start of the year: stock price falling like a dog, but performance is explosively good.
First thing: AI storage demand hasn’t collapsed, what collapsed is the "faith".
Why the drop? Three words: profit-taking.
AI memory demand doubts, China CXMT IPO triggering competition concerns, global chip stocks collectively sold off, Korean and Japanese memory stocks plummeting transmitted to US stocks. But these are all "emotions," not "facts."
What are the facts?
Q3 revenue $5.95 billion, doubled quarter-on-quarter, data center revenue surged over 200%+
Second thing: July 29 FOMC might be the trigger point.
On the day the Fed meets, the market is betting on rate cut expectations. Today CPI has softened, if Fed turns dovish, growth stocks will take off directly. SNDK, as an AI storage leader, has much higher elasticity than the broader market.
Earnings report on August 5, not much time left for the bears.
If Fed leans dovish + earnings reaffirm AI spending, SNDK can bounce from 1150 back to 1600+ in just two weeks.
Third thing: a technical signal that must be watched has appeared.
1150-1200 is the current key support zone and also a previous dense trading area. Today’s volume spike near 1150 indicates fierce battle between bulls and bears here.
If it holds 1150 and closes back above 1250 with volume, oversold recovery begins, target 1400-1500. If it breaks below 1100, then look at 1000 or even 800-900.
Bull vs. bear showdown, judge for yourself
On one side: revenue doubled year-on-year, data center surged 200%+
70% gross margin, strong free cash flow, zero debt
$42 billion+ locked orders, very high earnings visibility
RSI oversold, historical probability of rebound
MC + earnings report imminent, catalysts dense
On the other side: global chip stocks collectively sold off, sentiment very poor
Technical breakdown, downtrend
Doubts about sustainability of AI capex
Memory industry "boom-bust" cycle curse
Key levels
Resistance above: 1250-1300, 1400-1500, 1600-1650
Support below: 1100 (psychological level), 800-900
Short-term players: lightly buy on pullback to 1100-1150, stop loss 1050, target
1250-1300 with partial profit-taking. If rebound above 1250, reduce position or lightly short, target pullback to 1200.
Mid-term players: resistance above: [REDACTED-GW-BankCard_cn]
1600-1650
Support below: 1100 (psychological level), 800-900
Short-term players:
Lightly buy on pullback to 1100-1150, stop loss 1050, target
1250-1300 with partial profit-taking. If rebound above 1250, reduce position or lightly short, target pullback to 1200.
Mid-term players: wait for daily chart to stabilize above 1300 before entering on the right side, target 1600+. If it breaks below 1000, wait and watch for a lower accumulation zone.
Long-term believers:
If you believe AI storage is the main theme for the next decade, 1000-1150 is the zone for phased dollar-cost averaging.
SNDK now is like Nvidia at the end of 2022
Performance surged, stock price halved, retail investors cursing, institutions bottom-fishing. Later Nvidia rose from 140 to over 1000.
Is SNDK at 1150 a bloodied chip or a bottomless pit?
The answer is not in the candlesticks, but in the earnings report on August 5.
$SNDK #韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #OKX星球话题来啦 Meta's AI billing is divided into two parts: capital expenditures and expense guidance cannot be directly added together
Meta has confirmed that the Q2 2026 results will be released after the U.S. stock market closes on July 29. Before the earnings report, the most important concept to correct is that the full-year capital expenditure outlook and total expense outlook are not two figures that can be directly added as the "AI cost for the year." Capital expenditures first form assets, which then enter expenses through depreciation over time; employee compensation, cloud services, and daily operating expenses may directly enter the current period's profit and loss.
In Q1, the company raised the full-year 2026 capital expenditure outlook to $125 billion to $145 billion and maintained the full-year total expense at $162 billion to $169 billion. Both are management's forward-looking estimates as of Q1, not completed expenditures. Q1 capital expenditures, including finance lease principal, were $19.84 billion, and cash purchases of property and equipment were $18.997 billion; the two measures are close but not exactly the same.
After asset formation, costs enter subsequent quarters through depreciation. Q1 depreciation and amortization were $5.999 billion, higher than $3.9 billion in the same period last year; net property and equipment increased from $176.4 billion at the end of 2025 to $194.776 billion. These published figures indicate that infrastructure scale is expanding but cannot be used directly to infer Q2 depreciation or gross margin changes; the official answer still requires reading Q2 financial statements and 10-Q notes.
Expenses also include talent and stock-based compensation. Q1 stock-based compensation was $6.032 billion, a non-cash expense but affecting operating profit and potential dilution; buybacks offsetting dilution would result in cash outflows. If management discusses AI talent, computing power, data centers, or depreciation growth in the Q2 call, they must clearly indicate whether it is current actuals, full-year guidance, or longer-term plans.
I use a four-box framework to cross-check: cash capital expenditures and finance leases go into the input box, property and equipment and leased assets into the asset box, depreciation and personnel costs into the expense box, and Family of Apps operating profit and operating cash flow into the return box. The four boxes cannot be added to form a seemingly precise "total AI cost," but they can show when inputs pass through the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement.
If Q2 advertising revenue and Family of Apps profit growth are sufficient to absorb depreciation and talent costs, the financial pressure of investment is more controllable; if capital expenditure outlook is revised upward again and operating margin declines, the return period assumptions need to be extended. The official results have not yet been released, so no rumors are cited, no EPS predictions are made, and the full-year range is not written as amounts already spent by the company.
It is also necessary to check capital commitments rather than just paid amounts. Data center land, equipment purchases, and leases may have been contracted but not fully reflected in cash flow; 10-Q notes are usually more suitable for verification than press release summaries. If management only provides direction without precise breakdowns, the article will retain limitations and will not estimate GPU quantities, unit costs, or depreciation attributable to each product.$MU Today was a bit complicated, with dark pool institutional trading concentrated in the 811-820 range, DP% 70-79%.
Institutions that bottom-fished yesterday distribute or stop losses today at 840, then continue a new round of buying between 810 and 820.
Restructure positions after failing to bottom-fish.
Skew and OI both knew with their eyes closed that puts dominated and were aggressively hedging.
There is a large volume of $3.01M on 7/31 800 calls, which is a clear short-term bottom-fishing.
Futures for LEAP Call are starting to show divisions, and trust in storage is starting to waver.
Dealers are currently amplifying volatility, falling quickly and rebounding quickly.
The market has already priced in Walsh's hawkish remarks tonight, even raising interest rates. If his remarks are less hawkish, it will be a major rebound.
I chose to keep holding, bottom-fishing yesterday, and today's drop is within an acceptable range, effectively breaking the 800 stop loss.🔴 Important reminder ⚠️
The following is only a technical exchange of views and does not constitute investment advice
After a downward trend, the market has stabilized and rebounded, the short-term oversold condition has been repaired, short-term bullish momentum is starting to recover, indicators are gradually turning upward, and conditions are favorable for a continued recovery and rebound, allowing for the opportunity to play for short-term bulls.
The overall large-cycle downward structure has not yet completely changed; this rebound is tentatively defined as a recovery after a decline. For the bulls to continue strengthening, they need to break through the upper resistance zone. When engaging in short-term positioning, it is essential to maintain proper risk control. Do not blindly be bullish on the long term, and be alert to rebounds that may encounter resistance and pullback again.
Bitcoin: Bullish in the 63,500-63,000 range, watch around 64,800
ETH: Bullish in the 1900-1885 range, watch $BTC $ETH near 1945 $SNDK SNDK hit a low of 1055 tonight, with a current price of 1110, dropping another 13% in one day. A month ago it was 2350, now it's 1110—halved in just 30 days. But even more shocking than the price is the RSI6 has dropped to 6.08. I've seen extreme overselling, but never such numbers.
What does 6.08 mean?
An RSI below 10 is statistically considered "the extreme of the extreme." Looking through SNDK data, this is the first time such a reading has occurred since it was spun off from Western Digital in February 2025. Last time, SNDK's RSI dropped to 18, then rebounded 25% the following week; When it dropped to 20, it rebounded by 15%. An RSI of 6 means that short-term selling pressure has been exhausted to the extreme, and a rebound could unfold violently at any time. The US stock market has already closed, and pre-market trading continues. Tonight's low of 1055 may be the extreme bottom of this decline.
But short-term sentiment dominates everything—
1. Goldman Sachs issued a major warning yesterday. Goldman Sachs warned that the memory chip sector may face a "Q2 earnings bomb." Before the earnings release, SanDisk had already been downgraded by several analysts, and short-term funds were exiting ahead of the report to hedge risks.
2. Whales have made substantial profits from short selling. On July 27, a whale shorted 115,400 shares of SNDK (about $15 million) via Hyperliquid at an average price of $1,372. Tonight, the stock hit a low of $1,055, with unrealized gains exceeding $3 million. Short-selling institutions are still ramping up their positions.
3. Volume plunge sharply, panic trading is surging. Today's turnover reached 2.13 billion yuan, the highest volume recently. A sharp drop on high volume means selling pressure is being concentrated—some panic and cut losses, while others have started buying in to buy in.
What about Wall Street?
Evercore ISI targets $3,100, Susquehanna $3,250, Citi $2,500, and Goldman Sachs $2,200. Of 23 analysts, 79% gave a Buy rating. The current 1110 means that even Wall Street's most conservative target price still has room to double.
What should be seen from a technical perspective?
RSI6 6.08 — the first time such an extreme reading has appeared in history. The first resistance above is 1200-1230; a breakout should be seen at 1280-1300; below 1055 is the current low, and once it falls, there will be no support left to refer to.
Operational Advice:
For those with positions: Cutting losses at this position is no longer meaningful. Wait for a rebound of 1200-1230 before considering reducing positions.
For those who haven't boarded: wait until the station stabilizes between 1150-1180 before watching. Don't guess the bottom; let the market signal stabilize first.
Core conclusion: The fundamentals are not bad, but the short-term trend is in the hands of the bears. RSI 6 is a historically significant signal, but don't try to catch the knife. Let the bullet fly for a while—wait for volume to stop falling, wait for a long lower shadow, wait for the 5-day moving average to break above before acting.
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 BitMine's stock price surged due to its bet on Ethereum's treasury strategy, and the market began to refocus on the path of enterprises buying ETH.
Nearly 4.8% ETH is quite bold.
ETH is locked and staked,
This is equivalent to buying a digital government bond with an annualized yield of about 2.6%~3%.
They also built their own staking network, MAVAN, with 4.9 million ETH staked and locked. The current annualized staking yield is $254 million, and after full stake, it can reach $299 million—truly unique.
To put it bluntly, 5% circulating supply isn't a good news for controlling the market, and the risk of backlash in both directions is huge. Why?
Positive: Continuous coin buying tightens the circulating market, supporting ETH price
Inverse: Once you stop adding positions, the market loses the largest stable buyers, making ETH prone to a sharp drop without support.
Then ETH's decline dragged down BMNR's stock price, making financing more difficult, completely cutting off funds for coin purchases, and creating a vicious cycle.
Institutions like ARK and Galaxy are holding positions simultaneously, with high capital concentration
Once institutions collectively take profits and exit, BMNR's stock price will experience a sharp crush, with volatility far greater than ETH spot trading, and extremely high leverage risk.
Don't get carried away; institutional hype logic cannot ignore bubble risks.
Institutions are creating new asset narratives,
But all leverage will eventually be tested by the market.Changxin Technology's recent stir in the capital market might be deeper than many people think. It transformed overnight from a long-term loss-making follower into the highest market cap company in the A-share market, reaching a market value of 3.28 trillion, directly surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. $长鑫科技#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股
The reason for this surge boils down to two factors: the AI demand explosion + the irreplaceability of domestic substitution. The performance is indeed solid, good enough to be compared alongside Samsung and SK Hynix. In Q1 2026, Changxin's revenue was 50.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 719%, with net profit at 24.76 billion yuan. What does this mean? The profit made in one quarter exceeds the losses of several past years combined. The profit source is straightforward—DRAM prices have increased nearly sixfold within a year. Changxin is now the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, with a 7.7% market share, ranking behind Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. But the most critical point is: it is the only company in China capable of large-scale DRAM mass production. Domestic demand accounts for 34% of the DRAM market, but the localization rate is only 23%, leaving the remaining gap as its opportunity.
Market value of 3 trillion, but the "old foundation" still relies on the traditional market
Changxin's current earnings mainly come from traditional DRAM products like DDR5 and LPDDR5X. AI servers require DDR5, PCs and phones need LPDDR5, and orders are booked through 2027, with production capacity fully booked and still insufficient to meet demand.
However, the true "AI memory"—HBM (High Bandwidth Memory)—is still in the catching-up phase for Changxin. SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron almost monopolize the global HBM market. Changxin's HBM3E mass production target is 2027, with at least a three-year technology gap. Moreover, it faces a hard constraint: no EUV lithography machines. The Dutch company ASML's EUV machines are blocked from sale by the U.S., so Changxin can only use DUV for multiple exposures, resulting in lower yield and efficiency compared to the previous generation. Even if domestic DUV equipment advances, catching up to Samsung and SK Hynix's production efficiency is not a matter of one or two years.
Two major weaknesses: the cycle will come, and HBM is not yet realized
DRAM is a highly cyclical industry; prices soar to unbelievable heights and crash mercilessly. Changxin's current profits largely rely on the "price increase dividend." Once AI computing investment slows or industry capacity is released in concentration, profits will fluctuate dramatically. Another issue is that HBM is not yet mass-produced; the AI concept is more of an indirect benefit (price increase) rather than direct income. Changxin is currently a "cyclical stock," but the market values it as a "growth stock"—this mismatch needs to be resolved by future HBM realization and technological catch-up.
In summary: the long-term logic is sound, but the short-term is already priced in. Changxin's market position, domestic substitution potential, and capacity expansion pace are all solid. However, its current market value has already priced in the profit peak of this price increase cycle. What will truly determine whether it can evolve from a "3 trillion market cap" to a "long-term trillion-level company" are three questions: When can HBM be mass-produced? Can equipment and material localization keep pace? Can it withstand the next price downturn cycle? These three questions remain unanswered now.🔥 Early Thursday morning, U.S. AI giants face a "triple life-or-death strike"
This time, the market is not just waiting for a simple interest rate decision, nor a financial report.
What needs to be verified is:
Is the trillion-dollar AI investment truly a future productivity revolution, or just a fantasy that the capital market is prematurely overdrawing?
Beijing time early Thursday morning:
🕑 02:00
The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision.
The market has basically priced in — rates will remain unchanged.
So what really impacts the market is not whether rates are cut or not, but what signals the Fed sends:
Is there still room for future rate cuts?
Can high-valuation tech stocks continue to enjoy a premium?
⸻
🕓 After 04:00
Microsoft and Meta earnings reports come one after another.
On the surface, these companies remain strong.
But the capital market is no longer focused on "how much profit was made," but rather:
When will the money invested in AI start to generate returns?
Last week, Google's earnings were actually not bad, but due to huge AI capital expenditures, quarterly free cash flow was compressed or even negative, and the stock price remained under pressure.
Tesla even plunged 14% in one day, as the market reexamines:
Has the era of tech giants burning money wildly entered a valuation reappraisal phase?
⸻
This year:
Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon's AI capital expenditures are expected to exceed $725 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 77%.
Here’s the question:
With such massive investments in AI servers, data centers, chips, and power,
Will the future profits be able to cover today's investments?
This is the real concern on Wall Street.
⸻
📌 Microsoft needs to prove:
The growth rate of its Azure cloud business can match the frenzied expansion of data center investments.
📌 Meta needs to prove:
The cash flow generated by its advertising business can fill the huge black hole of long-term AI investments.
⸻
The market may see two possible trends next:
✅ A friendly interest rate environment + earnings prove AI commercialization is accelerating
AI stocks may see a new round of gains, with capital flowing back in.
❌ A hawkish Fed + earnings show AI investment returns are insufficient
Then this may not be an ordinary correction, but:
Wall Street starts looking for payers for the AI bills piled up crazily over the past few years.
⸻
What truly decides is not just the rise or fall of Microsoft and Meta.
But the entire valuation logic of the AI era:
How much it’s worth in the future depends on whether the money burned now can turn into cash flow.
⚠️ After the climax, what the market fears most is not the story ending, but discovering the story hasn’t made money yet.#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Intel has turned things around, rising 650% and then falling back to square one—this scenario is even more ridiculous than SanDisk's $INTC
Looking at the market, Intel's current price is around $91, down from a 52-week high of $142, a 36% pulldown over the past month. It's slightly better than SanDisk, which fell from 2354 to 1094, but not much better.
Let's look at the fundamentals first: the strongest quarterly report in fifteen years, but the market is not buying it
Intel's Q2 revenue was $16.1 billion, up 25% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth rate since 2011. Adjusted net profit was 2.2 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 400 million yuan in the same period last year, turning losses into profits. By business, data center AI revenue reached 6.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 59%. OEM business reached 5.8 billion yuan, up 31% year-on-year. CEO Chen Liwu said during the conference call that AI-related businesses have grown by more than 70% year-on-year overall. More importantly, management confirmed that the 18A process has entered mass production, with the 14A process scheduled for mass production in 2028, and rumors of Tesla orders and Apple contract manufacturing. But what about the market reaction? After the earnings report, the stock surged as much as 13% in after-hours trading, but was then dragged down by the broader market. In the past month, it fell from 142 to 91, a decrease of 36%.
Why the drop? Like SanDisk, the AI hardware sector has collectively been revalued
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5% over the day, Nvidia dropped 1%, AMD dropped 8%, and Intel dropped 5.8%. The core reason is simple: the market is questioning the return cycle of AI capital expenditure. Nvidia gave OpenAI that "circular financing," but Wall Street now denies this account. When market sentiment worsens, sellers should sell first with greater flexibility. Although Intel's performance is good, the entire sector is under pressure.
What sets Intel apart from SanDisk
SanDisk is a memory chip with strong price cycles. Intel's logic is "AI moving from training to inference, CPU back on the table"—not replacing GPUs, but the CPU-GPU configuration ratio in AI infrastructure is now close to 1:1, possibly even 4:1. Intel's core assets are the x86 ecosystem + advanced packaging + foundry network, and it is currently the only company that owns all three at once. Moreover, server CPUs are signed with long-term contracts of three to five years, with customers prepaid, which is highly certain revenue. But contract manufacturing is still burning cash, with quarterly operating losses exceeding $2 billion, free cash flow still negative, and capital expenditures raised to over $20 billion. This company still has a long way to go before it becomes financially free.
Conclusion: The fundamentals have indeed reversed, but the stock price has already filled expectationsA quick refresher on the history of Elon Musk's empire nesting dolls:
It started in 2016 with SolarCity → Tesla — $2.6 billion to fold his cousin's company plus his own investment into Tesla; shareholders sued in Delaware, he won the case and set a precedent.
The industrialized version is this time: X folded into xAI ($33 billion, March 2025) → xAI folded into SpaceX (around $80 billion valuation, early 2026) → then casually folded in Cursor (all-stock deal worth $60 billion) → IPO in June.
He will ultimately merge Tesla into SpaceX through his usual stock swap method, so ensuring SPCX is expensive and TSLA is cheap is a necessary path (though this strength and weakness is relative).
Last week's Tesla earnings call already started laying the groundwork for business integration, and the following moves will likely proceed in this way:
1. August 4 first earnings report: re-evaluate fundamentals using Starlink revenue, AI orders, and capital expenditure guidance.
2. August 5 supply gap, August 6 unlock verification, August 7 Grok node: first create earnings and product focus, then face real supply.
3. Starship 14 warm-up: especially the upper stage ship tower capture, which is more suitable than a normal launch to re-hype the "fully reusable economics." If successful, it can be heavily promoted that commercial spaceflight like civil aviation is just around the corner.
4. Sudden unannounced releases: Starshield, Pentagon, AI computing power, or large Starlink orders.
5. Long-term bundled hype around Tesla—SpaceX synergy and even merger expectations.
Of course, whether Musk will follow this path remains to be verified step by step with $SPCX The recent decline in US stocks has been no milder than in the crypto market. Nowadays, I'm actually more used to opening HTX, which feels convenient to use.
US stocks have basically reached a temporary peak, and people in the crypto world are rushing in to buy in, essentially the final blow at the end of the rally.
I predict that Q4 will be the best time to bottom-fish this year. As US stocks begin to adjust, $BTC is very likely to see the final round of declines.
Since June, I've been bearish on US stocks. The reason is simple: all my crypto friends have entered the market to build their positions, and when retail investors rush in collectively, it's often a signal of a top. Even when they occasionally made profits, I kept my hands tight and didn't follow the crowd, preserving my principal.
The massive influx of crypto funds into US stocks and the use of tech stocks as a new get-rich-quick track are typical signals at the end of a cycle. Once the Nasdaq begins to pull back, Bitcoin finds it difficult to break out of its standalone rally. When US stock liquidity tightens, BTC often becomes the first target for selling.
A deep correction in the US stock market will complete risk clearing, and BTC will simultaneously finish its final decline, washing out leveraged and restless speculative funds to lay the foundation for the upcoming rally. The real risk in the market has never been that no one is bullish, but that everyone firmly believes this market will be different.Behind the 826x market cap fluctuation, FWA turns NFT liquidity into a game of probability.
FWA stands for Fake World Assets. The name is a parody of RWA, but its approach targets a long-standing problem in the NFT market: buyers are reluctant to slowly choose among thousands of low-liquidity NFTs, and sellers often fail to get quotes after placing orders.
FWA drew nearly 84,000 transactions in just over a week, and NFT transactions have truly been "gachaped," compressing the process into a single draw.
One type of user puts NFTs into the on-chain pool and provides backing and standing bids; Another type pays an acquisition fee, and the protocol randomly assigns an NFT position. After drawing, users can hold the NFT or use the settlement path already available for that position.
Price discovery, random allocation, and exit liquidity are all packed into the same contract process.
The data indeed moves quickly. According to the FWA official index, as of July 28, the mainnet had cumulatively initiated about 84,000 acquisitions, of which about 78,300 were completed; active backing in the pool was about 2,180.50 ETH, cumulative acquisition-fee volume was about 8,539.72 ETH, and protocol fee contributions were about 1,163.67 ETH.
Here, two figures need to be distinguished: 8,539.72 ETH is the cumulative acquisition fee flow, not the total protocol revenue; The protocol fee threshold is closer to 1,163.67 ETH. The previously circulated revenue of about $1.3 million may correspond to an earlier on-chain snapshot.
FWA's rapid growth isn't just about NFT recovery. Random draws reduce selection costs, standing bids provide visible settlement paths, and card draw mechanisms amplify repeat participation. Originally low-frequency and time-consuming NFT transactions have been transformed into shorter, more exciting probability games.
But this comes at a cost. Having a standing bid does not mean participants lock in profits; NFT valuation, backing levels, and settlement results all change. The higher the number of draws, the higher the protocol fees, but user returns become highly diversified. Contract security, random number mechanisms, liquidity provider concentration, and NFT quality in the pool can all change the risks of this game.
According to third-party historical market cap data, FWA once rose from about $47,000 to $38.8 million, about 826 times. This is just a change in market cap range, not that every buyer will receive the same return. Low initial liquidity, concentrated chips, and focused trading can all lead to large early multiples.
The protocol receives fees, but it does not automatically equal the value capture of FWA tokens. How fees are allocated, whether buyback, burning, staking yields, or other token holding needs are formed, must be confirmed by public mechanisms and subsequent on-chain data.
Although NFTs haven't fully revived yet, when trading is transformed into card draws, dormant liquidity will indeed revive. Whether the hype can stay depends on whether users continue to use the protocol or are just chasing the next draw.Today, Ethereum embarked on a highly confusing rollercoaster run. After an earlier attempt to test the $1982 resistance but failed, it suddenly plunged intraday to a low of $1855.75, then quickly recovered most of the losses in a short period and regained the 1915 dollar area, with a slight daily drop of 0.6%. On one hand, panic over the collective collapse of altcoin storage coins spreads; on the other, Ethereum quickly recovered after the sell-off. Many traders couldn't understand why the mainstream second-largest coin would emerge from such a sharp decline and sharp rise. Drawing on recent on-chain security events, U.S. stock capital movements, ETF inflows, and contract order book behavior, we will break down the truth behind this rollercoaster rally. 1. Reference for Real Market Events Corresponding to This Round of Needle Roller Coaster Markets 1. The cross-chain protocol hacker returning stolen coins triggered short-term panic and crash. The trigger for the pre-market plunge came from a security event broadcast across the internet: hackers who attacked Across Protocol proactively returned over 300 stolen Ethereum $ETH. This news was magnified and interpreted by the community during the market downturn. Many funds inertly interpret this as concentrated exposure of on-chain vulnerabilities, short-term avoidance of Ethereum on-chain assets, with short positions taking the opportunity to dump and insert pins at 1855 during brief liquidity gaps. After the panic subsided, the market found that there was no large-scale asset theft risk in this theft incident. The panic selling immediately disappeared, and buyers quickly entered to repair the price. 2. U.S. stocks collectively collapsed at the open, with panic spilling over and passive selling pressure in the market. Tonight's US session was SVida once again made a large-scale sell-put trade, unlike the previous long cycle; this time, most were exercised within a month, using over $7 million in margin.
Involving $EWY $MU $SNDK of the target, using big to win small and earning high win rates is worth learning from.
"Take MU 660PUT maturing in one month as an example: I sell 15 shares now = immediately earning $47,000 in profit. And if MU really falls below 660 in a month and triggers settlement, the price I get for $1m will be an extremely good price.""What is the core reason for the continued sharp decline in global semiconductors and AI?" Is Bitcoin going to be dragged down with it? 》
On Monday, semiconductor and AI stocks plunged, sending the market into a wail!
South Korea's KOSPI index plunged more than 8% intraday on Monday, triggering circuit breakers. Samsung Electronics plunged over 13%, while SK Hynix plunged over 14%.
This isn't a company's financial report crash; it's the first systemic stress test for the entire AI narrative.
Nvidia closed down 4.99% on Monday, wiping out about $250 billion in market value in a single day. Apple overtook and reclaimed the world's top market cap.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has retreated more than 20% from its all-time high on June 22, officially entering a technical bear market. A "Black Tuesday" spreading from Wall Street to the Asia-Pacific is unfolding.
Why do semiconductor-related stocks keep falling? I have summarized five core reasons, each more deadly than the last.
First, valuations have skyrocketed.
The average PE ratio of Philadelphia Semiconductor Index constituents is more than twice the historical average. In June this year, Nvidia issued another $25 billion in corporate bonds after five years, providing funding for its massive investment and guarantee program.
Trees do not grow up to the sky. When earnings growth can't keep up with valuation expansion, prices are supported only by sentiment.
Second, the market is too wild, leverage too high, and they've resorted to 'circular financing.'
Nvidia guaranteed OpenAI $250 billion in financing and signed a $500 billion partnership with SK Group. Customers buy chips, NVIDIA pays, borrows money first, then buys goods, and the money circulates back into Nvidia's pocket.
The market calls this "circular financing." The credit market was the first to refuse.
The spread of Nvidia's five-year CDS surged 14 basis points in a single day. Oracle, Google, and Amazon all saw CDS rise.
A strategist at Société Générale said: "For hyperscale computing power companies, the focus now is on CDS, not EPS. This is the most accurate footnote to this round of decline: the market is now evaluating AI companies by "whether they will default," rather than "how much profit they can make."
Third, the money burned through, but profits didn't keep up.
AI capital expenditure growth far outpaced cash flow growth. The growth in AI business revenue for cloud computing giants is far behind the growth rate of capital expenditure.
The pace of burning cash far outpaced the rate of making money, and the capital market lost patience.
BlackRock recently stated that the recent sharp sell-off in technology and semiconductor stocks is an "overreaction." However, the market is confusing the "shift in the AI competitive landscape" with the "collapse of AI investment."
Fourth, China's semiconductor industry chain has risen.
China's semiconductor exports in the first two months reached $43.3 billion, a year-on-year surge of 72.6%.
Changxin Technology goes public, and domestic DUV lithography equipment is reported to have made a breakthrough. SMIC and Huahong have brought prices down in mature process fields. In the future, chip prices will be pushed down by China to a bargain price within reach. Dutch lithography machine manufacturer ASML is destined to face bankruptcy.
Japanese and Korean semiconductor companies are fighting on two fronts: being dominated by NVIDIA in AI chips, and being chased by China in mature processes. SK Hynix ADR fell below the US IPO price. Samsung recorded its largest single-day drop since 2008.
Fifth, and at the very bottom, the market suddenly shifted its pricing model.
The four reasons above can ignite at the same time, and at the core, there's only one thing: the market suddenly stops talking about potential market space (TAM) and starts talking about PE, cash flow, and ROI.
It took only two weeks to switch from "dream pricing" to "realistic pricing."
What about Bitcoin? Will they be dragged down with them? It's not that simple.
The correlation between Bitcoin and semiconductors has dropped sharply from its peak. But the momentum money is pulling out.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $477 million for three consecutive days, ending a seven-day streak of about $1 billion in inflows. Bitcoin has fallen below 64,000 and is now struggling against the 50-day moving average.
But this time is different from 2022. Bitcoin is passively dragged down by falling risk appetite, not a direct victim of the AI bubble. On-chain supply is still locked, exchange holdings are declining—there is long-term capital buying, but short-term panic buying is not possible.
Where is the bottom of the semiconductor market?
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is standing above the 11,200-point threshold.
The 21-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day moving average, forming a short-term bearish signal. If a decisive close breaks below 11,200, the area below up to the 200-day moving average will be a large vacuum zone.
Where is the 200-day moving average? About 8,400 points.
From 11,200 to 8,400, there is no effective support in between. This means that once it breaks through, the index may face a significant deep pullback.
BTIG is more pessimistic: SOX could fall another 17%.
JPMorgan's statistics are worth referencing: in the past 15 years, SOX has experienced 17 drawdowns of about 20%, with 5 of those final declines exceeding 30%. Since the high on June 22, SOX has dropped about 20% cumulatively.
If this is a 30% level correction, the target is around 9,200-9,500 points; If we take an even more extreme comparison, comparing it to the 82% drop in the semiconductor sector after the 2000 internet bubble burst, the entire framework would need to be rewritten.
But the market always has two sides.
JPMorgan believes the current drawdown is a structural adjustment driven by technical aspects, position structure, and deleveraging, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals.
Institutional positions have normalized, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's PEG for 2026/2027 is at a historic low, meaning that if earnings expectations materialize, current valuations have not overdrawn forward growth.
No one knows where the real bottom lies. But a few things can be certain:
The core of this round of declines is the shift of pricing logic from "dreams" to "reality," a shift that won't happen within a week or two. If 11,200 is breached, there will be no decent technical support below until the 200-day moving average. However, the clearing of holdings and seasonal factors are laying the groundwork for a rebound.
Will Bitcoin crash because of the continuous decline in semiconductor stocks?
On Bitcoin's side, since BTC is also a high-risk asset, when semiconductor stocks and US stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin will be sold off by institutions and naturally driven by the US stock market.
However, Bitcoin has already fallen earlier than US stocks, bottoming out, and is currently in the late stage of a bear market, with the real bottom estimated to be between 47,000 and 52,000.
❤️The long-term narrative of AI is not dead. Bitcoin and Ethereum remain above their respective 50-day simple moving averages—which is a constructive short-term momentum signal—but the broader crypto market is not. Currently, only 29 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies are trading above their 50-day SMA, while as of Monday, 47 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 index are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages. The divergence is striking: the largest assets in the crypto market are still maintaining technical momentum, while the broader altcoin market (breadth) shows a clear bearish outlook—even worse than the similarly stressed tech heavyweight index; The index itself is also affected by semiconductor sell-offs and concerns over AI investment returns (ROI). Bitcoin is quoted at $63,408, still above its 50-day SMA. Ethereum, a barometer for altcoin performance, has recently outperformed Bitcoin—sparking hope: perhaps a trend of spillover from Ethereum to broader altcoin buy-in will emerge. However, Wednesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, core PCE inflation and GDP data to be released later this week, and the Senate suspension of the Clarity Act for sanctions on Russia have removed the regulatory catalyst that once supported market positions related to the crypto industry. Matthew Ryan of Ebury pointed out that since the September rate hike has already been fully priced in by the futures market, a "hawkish" FOMC surprise has emerged, significantly boosting the dollar—by contrasting it with the DXY's inverse correlationAMD has plummeted, but Wall Street is still kneeling and shouting "buy"—are you familiar with this scenario with $AMD?
Looking at the market, AMD's current price near 446 was down nearly 10% in a single day on July 28, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 6%. The entire AI hardware sector was collectively hammered. From 584 yuan in early July to 446 now, a 23% drop in one month. It's not exactly the same as SanDisk's trend, but exactly the same. Why the drop? Like SanDisk, the AI hardware sector has collectively been revalued. It's not AMD itself that's having problems; the entire AI hardware is taking the brunt. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk, and AMD all plunged. There were two triggers: first, Nvidia's "circular financing" model for OpenAI raised questions about the break-even cycle for AI capital expenditure; Second, the market is beginning to question how much longer AI infrastructure spending can last. Nvidia only fell 1%, AMD dropped 10%, because market sentiment worsened. Sell the more elastic ones first, and AMD is the one with the greater elasticity.
Has the fundamentals changed? No change, maybe even better
AMD's Q1 revenue was $10.3 billion, with data centers $5.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57%. Q2 guidance was 11.2 billion, up 46% year-on-year. After the Advancing AI conference on July 23, Wall Street collectively raised their target prices: Jefferies went from 515 to 640, Bank of America from 560 to 620, and Baird doubled from 625 to 1250, maintaining a 'better outperform' approach. Among 51 analysts, 41 buy, 10 hold, and 0 sell, with a consensus rating of "strong buy." The problem lies in valuation. AMD with 522 has a TTM P/E ratio of 170 times and a forward P/E ratio of 59 times. The market has already priced in the full growth forecast for 2027; as soon as the financial report shows even the slightest flaw, it immediately launches a massive smash. The previous high of 584 is only 30% from now, and based on the Wall Street average target price of 570, the potential increase is only about 9%. The cost-performance ratio and risk are seriously mismatched.
What do you do next?
The August 4 earnings report is the biggest variable. Wedbush has already set expectations very high: 2027 earnings per share will jump from 12.33 to 14.74, a 20% increase. The higher the expectations, the greater the risk. If the earnings meet or even exceed expectations, it could return to 500 or even 550. If it falls short of expectations, below 400 is not a dream. At this level, just like SanDisk, it's not about fundamentals, but about betting on financial reports. Bottom-fishing before the earnings report is most likely another opportunity for institutions to lay in wait and feed you the prize. It is recommended to wait until the financial report is released on August 4截止发稿，美股AI硬件板块跌幅继续扩大 闪迪下跌17.30%， 费城半导体下跌6.03%。 西部数据下跌14.85%。 希捷科技下跌14.03% 迈威尔科技下跌10.73%，台积电下跌4.09%， 英特尔下跌8.90%， SK海力士下跌9.93%， 美光科技下跌12.03%， 超威半导体下跌9.74%，阿斯麦下跌5.65%， 接下来A股会怎么走呢！ 明天早盘，绑定海外周期、主打外销的存储芯片、海外半导体代工类，会被外围利空带崩，短期抛压实实在在躲不开了。 海外巨头暴跌，我认为，长鑫科技上市打击了美股存储芯片垄断，市场预判美股AI硬件被咱们国产挤压，是美股自身基本面利空，反而变成咱们国产芯片的长期利好。 我认为，半导体设备、硅片材料、本土PCB龙头、长鑫上下游配套企业，靠着深圳200亿半导体新项目加持，加上国内算力基建实打实的订单支撑。 明天低开就是难得的低吸机会，主力会借机布局。大家千万别被隔夜美股大跌，割出手里的低位筹码。#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 $SNDK 📈 Bitcoin Wicks To $62.7K, Then Buyers Drag It Back Toward $64K
A violent shakeout. Bitcoin plunged to $62,660 in early trading, then buyers stepped in hard and hauled it back to $63,863, up 0.22% on the day. That long lower wick came from panic that started outside crypto entirely.
📈 Where it stands:
Price: ~$63,863 (up 0.22%)
Session low: $62,660
Held above: the 50-day average
Fear and Greed: still fear
Here's what actually caused the dump, and it matters. South Korea's KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker, an automatic pause exchanges use when prices fall too fast, as tech stocks sold off across Asia. That risk-off wave spilled into crypto and dragged BTC down with it. This wasn't Bitcoin breaking, it was global fear washing through. And the recovery off $62,660 shows buyers were waiting: wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC added roughly 19,700 coins over the past eight days, real accumulation into the weakness.
But stay honest about the setup. The Fed decides tomorrow, July 29, and it's being called the hardest meeting to predict in years, with hike odds now near 36%, up from 26% last week. A wick recovery the day before a binary event is fragile by nature. BTC needs to hold $63,458, the level analysts flag as the line before $60,000 opens up. Breadth is weak too, only 29 of the top 100 coins sit above their 50-day average.
What to watch:
Hold $63,458 into the Fed and reclaim $65K after, and this wick was a shakeout.
Lose $63,458, and $62,000 then $60,000 come into play.
A knife-catch bounce before the Fed is not the moment to force size. Let Wednesday resolve it, then act.
Shakeout before the Fed, or fragile bounce before another drop?
Not financial advice. $BTC $ETH $SOL If the US stock market, KOSPI, and chip stocks plunge, the US dollar strengthens, and long-term yields remain high, then financial conditions have already been proactively tightened by the market. The Fed can completely avoid an immediate rate hike on July 29, but maintain a tough stance, letting high yields and market deleveraging complete the tightening on behalf of the Fed. This exactly aligns with the conclusion observed in the quote that "companies with excessive AI capital expenditures have effectively executed a rate hike through a stock price crash."
In summary, the FOMC is very likely to hold steady this time, and the answer will be revealed soon. #US Treasury yield decline Bitcoin once fell to $63,065 during the Asian session, then rebounded to about $63,500—down 0.3% since midnight UTC and nearly 3% in the past 24 hours—after South Korea's KOSPI plunged 10.8% over a single piece of news: a Beijing-backed company reportedly began manufacturing deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines similar to those produced by Dutch company ASML. ASML is the main tool used by the West to restrict China's semiconductor development. KOSPI has dropped 34% from its peak a month ago. Samsung and SK Hynix led the KOSPI decline. ASML fell 5.8% on Monday and dropped another 4.7% in pre-market trading. Nasdaq e-mini futures fell to 27,930—the lowest level since May—and on Monday, NVDA dropped nearly 5%. Ethereum, XRP, and Solana fell 3-4% respectively. Bitcoin has performed more steadily compared to the Nasdaq and Asian stock markets. The Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting today, with investors divided on whether the Wash policy will remain unchanged or raise rates on Wednesday. Bitfinex analysts point out that $68,500—the cost benchmark for short-term holders—is a key resistance level: if the price rebounds, this resistance will determine Bitcoin's mid-term trajectory. China's DUV Breakthrough — Why Is This Different from Previous Chip Sell-offs? The specific catalyst behind Tuesday's Kospi crash is fundamentally different from the "AI ROI doubts" that drove the previous round of semiconductor sell-offs on July 17-18. Those previous friendshipsPreviously, many people worried that tradexyz had run off, but both subjectively and objectively, such speculation is nonsense. Today, with the oracle anomaly, some people quickly cut $HYPE and xyz, which is unnecessary. Shoku is an early builder of this ecosystem, xyz is currently the largest hip-3, contributing a significant portion of buyback shares, and 50% of the revenue is used to burn hype. All hip-3s operate this way; it's a simple relationship, not that complicated.
Subjectively, Shoku's philosophy is to build the hyperliquid ecosystem together. Unit and tradexyz are infrastructure components that hype lacks, and their positioning as part of the ecosystem is more important, just like the USDH team, who are willing to make concessions for ecosystem development.
Clearly, neither unit nor tradexyz has done any points airdrop expectations or announced any financing; Shoku uses its own funds for development and operation.
Objectively, tradexyz's current backend cost is the 500,000 hype staked, with POS income. For Shoku, this isn't even a cost since he was going to hold it anyway. For other project parties, it's not much of a cost either. Just look at dreamcash; if it can't continue, it will shut down, but relying solely on hype can still earn two to three times.
If developing a backend independently to reach hype's level, how much money and time would it take? Polymarket, despite being so profitable, still can't get rid of the burden of Polygon. Not to mention hype's level far surpasses pol. So why would it run away? $BTC Turbulence throughout the day, $62,700 resistance line unbroken but weak upside — daily average -1.23%
🧭 Market review
BTC traded intraday between $62,700 and $65,060, opening high but closing low. In early Asian trading, it opened at $64,520 but fell to support near $62,700, rebounding to close at $63,700. ETH is also weakening in the $1,855–$1,955 range, with a deepening discount structure (premium -0.047%), and its elasticity is not as strong as Bitcoin's. On the open interest side, BTC $2.03B / ETH $1.32B remained high, but funding rates were both near zero — the overloaded long position pattern temporarily neutralized after reduction. SOL $74.22 dipped slightly with the broader market, with fluctuations converging.
🔍 On-chain insights
The Solana meme sector showed polarization today: Diary (+24,534% 24h) and BNUT (+9,147% 24h) were both new releases that launched this morning, strong burning but extremely thin liquidity ($97K/$45K), easy to get in but hard to get out. CATE broke out from the opposite side of the trending chart—down over 20% in 24 hours, holding 17,500 shares still selling on high volume, and $550,000 in 1h trading volume indicating both buying and selling. Cluster data shows CATE's rugPull probability is 2.7% + 49% for co-origin funds. Catching Flying Knife at this position is no different from giving away kills.
⚡ Smart money flows
Solana signals: OnlyMarms was swept up three times by multiple smart wallets, with a total purchase of $3,500+, but only 28–40% sold, showing a strong accumulation trend. Brötchen $911 bought with zero sell, showing signs of control. Negative example: ZAZU and Chud — Smart money buys and sells 86%/81% respectively, typical pump flick pattern: max out and leave, leaving retail investors to take over. Himgajria is even more impressive: the top 10 hold 83%, smart money has already moved 91%, and the chips on this table are highly concentrated.
At this point, OI hasn't shrunk but the rates haven't risen, indicating that both bulls and bears are waiting for the other side to die first—rather than adding positions and starting a fight. The heat of on-chain new listings is fading rapidly (CATE trades 200,000 transactions per day, but prices keep crashing), and smart money is clearly shrinking its front lines and selecting targets more precisely. Tonight, no chasing, no holding; watch overnight's US stock market guidance to decide the direction.
#暗影萨满$LIT
Direction: LONG
Entry zone: 2.205–2.225
Stop loss: 2.170
TP1: 2.2575
TP2: 2.300
TP3: 2.360
Reasoning: LIT reclaimed the full short-term MA structure and accelerated from the 2.15 support zone. Buyers remain in control, but the price is now testing the previous session high.
My approach: I’d enter on a controlled retracement and take an early partial at TP1. No need to chase above 2.24.
#CXMTDebutShockwave #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch 🚨 BlackRock CEO Larry Fink shares his view on the crypto market.
“Too much leverage built up in crypto — that’s what caused the washout.”
According to Fink, current levels are showing greater stability after the major deleveraging event.
Many investors are watching closely as confidence begins to return and market conditions improve.
Could this mark the beginning of a new Bitcoin accumulation phase? 👀
$BTC 🚀
#DailyOrbit
#FOMCRateWatch 📈 In this round of trading, I have already given up shorting ETH and switched to shorting BTC.
Previously, I used ETH as collateral to obtain WBETH, then used WBETH as margin to open short perpetual contracts of the same nominal amount. This strategy has three obvious benefits:
1️⃣ Equivalent to directly selling spot ETH, with no leverage or liquidation risk.
2️⃣ No loss of ETH staking yields, and additional position fees for long positions can be charged.
3️⃣ Exchanges only need to hold a tiny portion of ETH as margin, greatly reducing the potential risk of runaway or hacking.
Now, I update my strategy to: use WBETH as collateral to short BTC of the same nominal amount, with the exchange rate calculated in real time.
The reasons for the adjustment are as follows: MSTR is unlikely to buy BTC again in the short term, while Bitmine continues to increase its ETH holdings; Plus, the RWA (Real-World Asset) narrative is advancing. This round of bear markets is likely to repeat the previous pattern—the bottoms of BTC and ETH are not appearing in sync.
Looking back at the last cycle: ETH bottomed on June 18, 2022, at $882; BTC bottomed on November 21, 2022, at $15,476. At that time, the ETH/BTC exchange rate climbed from 0.0500 all the way up to 0.0698.
In this round, ETH's bottom is highly likely to appear on June 6, 2026, with a price of $1,506. Therefore, shorting BTC going forward is a more reasonable direction.
Finally, on the technical side: BTC has clearly broken below the ascending channel (see Figure 1), while ETH remains near the lower band of the channel (see Figure 2), with clear divergence in shape and rhythm.Brothers, let's analyze Trump coin: the intraday high was 1.49U, the intraday low was 1.451U, closing at 1.472U, with a slight 2.29% drop over 24 hours; a cumulative 5.3% pullback over the past 7 days, clearly it can't be pushed down further, but we still shouldn't rush. Most likely, there will be a drop to blow out high-leverage positions. Around 1.35 is a good area to gradually build long positions. The midterm elections will definitely cause a strong rally. The US stock storage sector collectively plunged, global crypto market risk appetite cooled down, BTC and ETH weakened simultaneously; the Meme sector's overall heat declined, funds flowed into privacy and AI sectors, political-themed tokens lost sector support, and TRUMP weakened independently. Meanwhile, the Trump administration continues to promote crypto-friendly regulatory frameworks, and the market expects that relaxed policies will bring valuation recovery potential to political-themed Meme coins. Multiple rounds of large token unlocks and family-related chip cash-outs, which were negative factors in the first half of the year, have been fully released, with no cliff large unlock plans in the short term; low-level chip turnover is sufficient, and the early low-cost profit-taking is nearing its end, reducing selling pressure and narrowing downside space. The total token supply is 1 billion, with 237 million currently circulating; the remaining team shares unlock slowly and linearly, so there won't be a one-time dump. The midterm elections from August to October could trigger a rally, making it the most likely time cycle for a rally in recent years. The suspense for the presidential election two years later is much greater. $TRUMP $BTC $ETH #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 这行情真是让人看不懂了。SK海力士Q2营业利润预计暴增596%，利润率甚至碾压台积电，产能都卖到2027年了，结果股价单日暴跌14%，ADR直接跌破发行价？📉
一边是AI需求驱动下的真实景气，HBM市占率全球第一；另一边是韩国散户杠杆ETF爆仓引发的踩踏式抛售。基本面火热，信心却冰封。高盛都说“存储短缺没缓解，股价却崩溃了”。
这时候拼的不是对行业的理解，而是对人性恐慌的承受力。明天财报指引才是关键，但这冰火两重天的戏码，实在太过魔幻。#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 $SKHYNIX Usually you don’t see panic selling ahead of results. But that’s exactly what’s happening.
Take $SNDK for example. Big Q4 report coming, expectations are high. Yet institutions are dumping it anyway.
That tells me semis could be running out of steam. Even if there’s a bounce, it might not last.
The broader issue: valuations are stretched. The moment there’s any wobble, everyone rushes to take profits.
That’s why you’re seeing money rotate into $BTC $ETH instead. Safer to bank gains there.