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Friends, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is finally about to be announced in the early hours tonight. Let's take a look at the impact of rate hikes and non-rate hikes on the market. At 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its July interest rate decision, followed by a press conference by Chairman Wash. This conference, dubbed by many organizations as "the most unpredictable in recent years," has reached its peak in suspense. What is the real probability of a rate hike? Around 30%, the largest divergence in nearly two years. The CME "FedWatch" tool shows a 69.5% probability of keeping rates unchanged in July, and a 30.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike; The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike by September has risen to 56.4%. It's worth noting that two weeks ago, the market's bet on a July rate hike was only about 10%, but now it has soared to over 30%. Citi bluntly stated that this is "the most divergent moment since September 2024." Why are expectations for rate hikes heating up so rapidly? The core driver is energy prices. After the US-Iran ceasefire broke down, Brent crude broke above $100 per barrel intraday, with a cumulative gain of 25% since the June Fed meeting. Meanwhile, Trump's announcement of new tariffs on 60 countries, combined with continued AI investment driving demand, has completely reversed the inflation narrative. On the other hand, June CPI fell to 3.5% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, giving the Fed room to wait. Goldman Sachs believes that after softening inflation data in June, most voting members are unlikely to push for a rate hike this week. Overall, holding rates remains the benchmark scenario, but the risk of unexpected rate hikes cannot be ignored. JPMorgan Chase believes#美联储即将公布利率决议 Tonight's FOMC meeting might be the hardest to predict in the past decade. CME data shows a 69.5% probability of keeping rates unchanged and a 30.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike. Bank of America reviewed historical records: since 1994, the Fed has never raised rates when the market's probability of a hike was below 60%. If they hike tonight, it would be the first time in 30 years. TD Securities' forecast is more specific: rates will remain unchanged, but there will be at least two dissenting votes—Harmak and Logan may vote to raise rates. The dissent itself isn't a big deal, but having two dissenting votes when the market's hike probability is only 30.5% sends a signal more worth pondering than the actual outcome. The data is also conflicting. July consumer confidence dropped to 90.8, employment sentiment weakened, supporting a dovish stance; oil prices rebounded briefly due to missile attacks, supporting a hawkish stance. But the most uncertain factor is Powell himself. The first thing he did after taking office was discard the Fed's forward guidance that had been maintained for over a decade. Previously, the market could judge direction from statement wording; now he says "every meeting is live." This means no one can know in advance what he will do tonight—including economists writing reports. However, at the July 14 congressional hearing, he said something very significant: "Zero tolerance for persistently high inflation." When Powell says "zero tolerance," the 30.5% probability is not just market guesswork. My judgment: Most likely no hike, but the wording will lean hawkish. Powell won't change his stance on inflation just because oil prices have fallen for three days. He needs to send the market a signal that "inflation is not yet solved," while avoiding putting too much pressure on the economy before the midterm elections. Keeping rates unchanged with hawkish wording is the most likely outcome. The path of least resistance is to do nothing but keep the expectation of a September hike alive. The key is the wording—will the "accommodative stance" be removed? If removed, the probability of a September hike will rise directly, putting short-term pressure on BTC; if not removed, the market will briefly rebound, but Powell most likely won't do that. $BTC $QQQ $XAUT The AI sector is undergoing collective adjustment, revisiting the current market's true pricing logic Yesterday, KOSPI plunged, and US stocks continued to fall in the evening. KOSPI just had another circuit breaker. Why do I say again? What about the US stock market at night? I felt a bit uncomfortable, hurt, and didn't want to speak 😭 The market has moved beyond the stage of simply judging industry prosperity and has entered a phase where expectations and valuations are being rematched. ▶️ SK Hynix's performance hit a new high but plunged, with expectations for valuations to continue being digested SK Hynix's Q2 financial report was impressive, with significant growth in revenue and profit. In the first half of the year, revenue surpassed 10 billion yuan, and the AI storage foundation was solid, but the stock price also suffered a sharp drawdown. This divergence between fundamentals and trends stems from three objective market factors. - Profits are inflated by one-time factors; high net profit includes gains from equity disposals, and the actual main business profit is far less exaggerated than the book itself. - Overall data slightly below market optimism expectations. During the hottest phase of AI, if it fails to reach extreme expectations, selling pressure will be triggered. - Short-term valuations have been completely squeezed by the market. Even with long-term HBM contract orders and ties to Nvidia's computing power supply chain, capital is beginning to worry about the sustainability of long-term demand. The long-term demand logic for HBM as core AI hardware remains unchanged. At this stage, the adjustment is mostly a normal absorption of high valuations and is not suitable for chasing gains at high levels. ▶️ The Nasdaq pulled back rapidly, with historical data warning of risk The Nasdaq 100 adjusted at a relatively fast pace this time, with a 10% drawdown over 38 trading days, showing a noticeably faster pace than before. By combining historical trend data, the current market risk structure can be clearly identified. - Historically, drawdowns of 5% to 10% have more than half the probability of further deepening corrections and will not easily stop. - After the extreme bullish structure that held above the 10-day moving average for a long time loosened earlier, there is a considerable probability of this evolving into a deep correction. There is no need to subjectively predict the bottom level; subsequent earnings reports and Federal Reserve decisions will directly guide the market's direction. Adjusting positions according to the rhythm is a more prudent approach. ▶️ Market logic shifts, AI sector valuation focus shifts AI hardware fundamentals remain robust, with manufacturers' capital expenditures and order guidance continuing to improve. The core of sector volatility is the quiet shift 🤔 in market valuation logic The first half of the year was driven by computing power expansion and capital expenditure growth, with sentiment leaning toward the market. The current market is more rational, with a focus shifting to delivered returns, focusing on long-term demand stability and the actual returns from industrial input. At present, the positive stimulus effect in the industry is weakening, and earnings reports are mostly used to adjust valuations. Subsequent sector recovery is not enough; AI applications are needed to support the valuation of the industry chain with actual productivity. Overall, the long-term development trend of the AI industry remains unchanged. This round of sector adjustments is a normal recovery brought by short-term valuation overdrafts and market expectations iteration. Adapting operations to fit current market pricing logic, better suited to the current market rhythm (screw it). 😊Analysis during the afternoon session on July 29 5-minute period MACD: DIFF: 0.31, DEA: 1.04, MACD: -1.45. Both lines are turning downward at high levels, red bars are gradually contracting, short-term rebound momentum is weakening, and prices are facing pressure and pullback. Operational advice Short: Short positions are positioned within the rebound 4040-4060 range The first target is 4020, the second target is 4000 Long: If the 4020-4030 range stabilizes, lightly position short-term and long positions can be used The first target is 4040; if it breaks out, look for 4060 Risk warning: The above is for technical market review and reference only, does not constitute investment or trading advice. Precious metals carry relatively high volatility risk. $XAU #美联储即将公布利率决议 #HyperLiquid pricing anomaly caused Hynix perpetual to plummet Be cautious with related perpetual contract trading. The first to suffer in the short term are liquidity and pricing credibility; this should not be directly extrapolated as a sudden deterioration in the fundamentals of the underlying company. An abnormal price before the market opened triggered nearly a 20% sharp drop, indicating that the scarcest resource in this market is not the trading entry but quotes that can still be established during extreme moments. The anomaly occurred during the pre-market phase on the Korean NXT market, after which the contract briefly dropped about 17.9%. Trade.xyz is investigating. Pre-market participation is already lower and quote layers thinner; once external reference prices deviate, leverage and stop-loss in perpetual contracts amplify what was originally a localized issue into continuous trades. The most easily misread aspect is treating such volatility as directional information. What is truly being repriced is whether traders are willing to continue paying leverage costs for cross-market prices, index compilation, and clearing mechanisms. Those who treat perpetuals as spot substitutes face greater pressure; if the platform cannot explain the price source and anomaly handling rules, subsequent liquidity will also be more conservative. Going forward, it depends on whether the investigation can clarify how the abnormal quotes entered the pricing chain, and whether the bid-ask spread, depth, and funding rates return to normal after the market recovers. Restoring transparency is more important than a single rebound. The above is only a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly; trading profits and losses are at your own risk. #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon report earnings tonight Move away from AI, buy old leaders, further accelerate, South Korea's KOSPI plunged 10.8% triggering a circuit breaker. Most US stocks are still rising, indicating it's not yet a market-wide sell-off, Semiconductors are experiencing concentrated institutional deleveraging and valuation repricing. Brent crude oil dropped to $82, 10-year US Treasury yields fell to 4.60%, The probability of a Fed rate hike has fallen to about 32%, If the upcoming MSFT and META earnings reports cannot prove the return on AI investments, the risk of a tech stock correction will continue.#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 SK海力士$SKHYNIX 交了一份“历史最好但不及预期”的财报。 利润同比涨了557%，创了历史纪录——结果市场预期更高，营收和利润都没达到分析师给的数。财报一出股价盘后先跌为敬。 问题出在哪儿？HBM（AI用的高端内存）占比太高，反而成了拖累。HBM通常签3-5年长协锁死价格，而普通DRAM在现货市场随行就市、价格飙升——海力士大量高端货被长协“焊死”在低位，没吃到这轮涨价周期的最大红利。 管理层赶紧安抚：HBM4已经量产出货了，和10家客户签了长协。股价又拉回来了。 但整个存储板块已经慌了——费城半导体指数三连跌$SOXL ，闪迪$SNDK 7月跌超51%。希捷倒是逆势大涨，近线硬盘产能都锁到2028年了，客户还在抢2029年的。 对BTC来说：存储芯片股崩盘带动科技板块恐慌，短线风险偏好肯定是压制的。但换个角度想——AI硬件这个“最吸金”的赛道开始松动，资金会不会从半导体撤出来找新去处？加密可能是溢出方向之一。海力士电话会说AI投资没放缓，如果后续财报能证实景气度没断，存储股的恐慌情绪修复后，反而可能给风险资产整体托个底。 先看三星财报怎么交差吧。$BTC $ETH $SNDK #FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight #SKHynixRecordMiss The Web Became Machine-Native Today Machine Majority Cloudflare’s Radar dashboard put bots at 57.5% of HTTP requests to HTML content, versus 42.5% from humans. That is the cleanest macro frame for today: the internet is no longer primarily a human browsing surface, and crypto’s agent-payment obsession makes more sense when machines are already the majority customer. Agent Settlement Base hit its 100 millionth AI agent payment, with autonomous USDC settlements running around the clock without humSK Hynix's sharp drop is not due to poor performance, but because the market's demand for "perfection" is too high What drew the most attention in the market today wasn't the earnings collapse, but SK Hynix's impressive earnings report, yet its stock price continued to plunge. Many people's first reaction is: Is the AI market over? I believe this decline is not fundamentals deteriorating, but rather a repricing after high valuations meet high expectations. Hynix's reported revenue and profit remain strong, with net profit hitting a new high, indicating that the competitive advantage and profitability of the storage industry have not fundamentally changed. The real issue is that the market had already factored in almost all future optimism expectations into stock prices. When valuations are high enough, the capital market's tolerance for company faults drops to almost zero. Good performance doesn't mean prices will rise; they must be better than market expectations. As long as the price falls slightly short of expectations, funds may choose to cash out profits early. This is also why the AI hardware sector has recently frequently experienced "good performance, but stock prices plunge." What does this indicate? This indicates that the valuation of the AI hardware sector has entered a sensitive phase. In the short term, what affects stock prices is no longer just fundamentals, but capital sentiment, valuation levels, and market expectations. On the other hand, from the market perspective, a large amount of leveraged funds began to come under pressure. If the market experiences another rapid decline, it may trigger more leveraged positions to close out, further releasing liquidity risk. However, this consistent sell-off is often part of the market's accelerated clearing of floating chips. As high-leverage funds gradually exit, the market becomes more likely to establish a new balance. As for where the real low point is, no one can know in advance. What truly deserves attention is not guessing the bottom, but observing trading volume, capital flows, and whether signals of a halt to decline have begun to appear. Tonight, there is an even more important variable. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision, and Powell's comments on inflation, the economy, and future policy paths are likely to become a key catalyst for the next phase of global markets. If a dovish signal is released, tech stocks and risk assets are expected to see sentiment recovery; If the wording remains hawkish, short-term volatility could be further amplified. This drop in SK Hynix feels more like a valuation recovery than a fundamental collapse. What will truly determine the next move will be whether funds have been cleared out and whether the Federal Reserve can bring new liquidity expectations to the market. $BTC #美联储即将公布利率决议 $BTC Is Quietly Rebalancing As On-Chain Supply Pressure Fades On-chain data is beginning to diverge from price behavior, signaling a structural shift beneath the surface. Miner inflows, often used as a proxy for sell-side pressure, are not showing sustained expansion. Instead, flows from early miners and Satoshi-era cohorts appear in short, isolated bursts, suggesting supply is reactive rather than part of a broader distribution trend. This weakens the case that current price weakness is driven#EarningsObserver: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon Report Tonight Tonight (7/29 after US Eastern market close), Microsoft + Meta report first, followed by Amazon tomorrow. These three companies' combined AI capital expenditures for 2026 are heading toward $500 billion+, exceeding the GDP of most countries. The market currently isn't short on AI stories, but lacks ROI evidence: • Microsoft’s outlook on Azure (consensus ~40% growth) + Copilot adoption + 2027 CapEx guidance; if quarterly CapEx breaks $40 billion, free cash flow will continue to be pressured • Meta’s ad revenue expectation is about $59 billion, but CapEx guidance is $125–145 billion, with burn rate outpacing the ad engine’s traction • Amazon tomorrow will be watched for whether AWS can hit 30%+ growth and if the $200 billion CapEx will be revised upward Implications for the crypto space: These three are the ultimate buyers of Nvidia GPUs, data center power, and AI narratives. If earnings confirm cloud revenue outpacing CapEx, risk asset appetite will return, and $BTC could leverage this momentum to test previous highs; if they collectively play out a Google-style "good earnings but CapEx revised up again, stock price down," Nasdaq futures will be pressured overnight, and crypto markets may see volume-driven pullbacks in the early morning. Don’t just watch BTC candlesticks overnight; first check MSFT/META after-hours price changes. My personal stance: Tonight isn’t about guessing price direction, but about whether AI capital expenditures can prove themselves. I’m not adjusting my crypto positions until this is over. "The market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long term." - Benjamin Graham Just got off the phone with a friend in New York, who thinks market sentiment is quite poor and leans to the other side. He’s been watching SOX closely; by the end of June, he believes the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index can take another step up +60% in the “long run.” But the volatility in between won’t be small. It has dropped 21.15% from its high, and according to historical data, there’s still 8%-11% downside space. SOXX could reach $460. He previously bought Microsoft (his favorite), Google, and Amazon, preparing for the next AI cycle rotation. They’ve also fallen with the broader market. Google’s ATH caused dilution, and the halt in buybacks also had an impact. But the backlog is right there. This infrastructure race will definitely see everyone giving their all until not a drop of oil can be squeezed out. If any hyperscaler is willing to stop, or if everyone privately reaches some kind of agreement, that will be the takeoff point for cloud providers. Right now, AI infrastructure spending hangs over us like the "Sword of Damocles." Everyone is guessing when the spending will stop increasing or plateau. Currently, both buyers and sellers are under pressure. Chinese AI companies face cost-performance challenges, like ChangXin. They are currently overvalued in the short term but shouldn’t be underestimated in the long term. Whether ASML, Micron, or SK Hynix, they will face competition in the future. Strategic supply chain protection may not necessarily stop competition. Looking at 2027 and 2028, the impact is actually minimal. ChangXin can’t even meet demand within mainland China, let alone save demand elsewhere in the world, especially with U.S. policy restrictions and roughly a 3-year iteration gap in HBM technology. "Stories about AI spending cuts and challenges for Chinese companies will keep appearing, affecting market sentiment." - ccl So when will AI infrastructure spending stop growing?! Actually, most people haven’t noticed the growth in AI data sovereignty. Nvidia core data (FY2026, ending January 2026): Sovereign AI revenue: over $30 billion, more than tripled year-over-year. Proportion of total revenue: about 14% (approximately $215.9 billion). Proportion of data center revenue: about 15.5% (data center full-year revenue about $193.7 billion, up 68% year-over-year). "Sovereign AI refers to purchases by national governments or state-supported entities to build their own AI infrastructure (data sovereignty, security, research, defense, etc.), using the same Blackwell systems as hyperscalers (e.g., GB200-NVL72), with no impact on gross margin." Sovereign AI revenue grew over 80% year-over-year, with infrastructure deployed in nearly 40 countries. ACIE (AI Clouds, Industrial & Enterprise), including sovereign AI, will take over AI infrastructure construction spending. By 2029, we should see AI spending slow down or even plateau. Who can replace Nvidia, TSMC, the three major clouds, and the three HBM giants?! Today, I continue to buy NVDA within my means, while holding back some ammo for TSMC, Micron, and SK Hynix. NFA, DYOR. A friend asked Chris if he’s coming to New York this time? To have a coffee and catch up in Manhattan. C: Next time. Still remember the excitement when arriving in New York in 2011. New York is still New York, but New York is no longer the same New York! No one can stop the great AI wave, the arrival and baptism of the cycle. So let’s work hard to ride this wave, go with the flow, and pass on the legacy in an orderly way. $NVDA $TSM $MUStorage Standards Plunge Collectively! What is the root cause of such a sharp drop? In fact, Sister Long warned last night that after-hours earnings reports would directly affect $SNDK $SKHY $MU, which was the most direct trigger 🔥 Last night, post-market earnings from STX Seagate and KLAC Technology were released, directly crashing the entire storage sector 📉📉📉 1. Seagate STX: Current data is acceptable, but next quarter's capital expenditure guidance is significantly conservative 🫥 Cloud vendors are expected to slow the growth rate of AI hard drive purchases, which the market views as a cooling of AI storage purchasing enthusiasm, causing valuations across the entire storage industry chain to collectively fall. 2. KLAC: Orders fall short of market optimistic expectations Demand for semiconductor equipment is not as hot as expected, dampening the enthusiasm 🧊 for buying in the semiconductor sector The financial report fully fulfilled negative expectations, but unfortunately, the post traffic was low and few people saw it. Although there may be a technical rebound from oversold in the short term, mid-term expectations have already been changed by the earnings report. Don't rush to bottom-fish during a rebound! #交易所定价异常致海力士永续暴跌 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, deposit stocks experienced sharp fluctuations Big Tech earnings. $10T on the line. Tonight + tomorrow: Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon report. Nasdaq looks calm, but everyone’s gripping the armrest. The real question: is AI actually changing the world, or just the most expensive experiment ever? We start finding out now. Quick take: Apple — Boring but steady. iPhone prints cash, AI moves slow. Safest of the four. Microsoft + Meta — High risk. If Azure misses or capex doesn’t cool, expect instant pain. Meta’s test: can ads cover the burn? Amazon — Closes it. AWS needs >33% growth or the $200B infra story gets shaky. 3 things to watch: 1. Capex guidance — Google got slapped -5% after hours for overspending. Say “no limit” and watch stocks bleed. 2. Cloud growth — Azure and AWS prove if AI actually makes money. Slowdown = thesis breaks. 3. Free cash flow — Google went from $25.7B to negative. Microsoft and Amazon also fell off a cliff. Meta still burns $30B+/q. Another miss here and the AI narrative takes a hit. Semis feeling it too: SK Hynix, SanDisk, Micron all getting hit. Seatbelts on. 🚀 #DailyOrbit #FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight 📉 Korean stocks continued yesterday's downward trend: the KOSPI index fell below 5,700 points, triggering a suspension of algorithmic trading. SK Hynix's Q2 operating profit surged 557%, hitting a record high but still missing expectations (both revenue and profit fell short). U.S. stocks fell over 9% in after-hours trading, and Korean stocks fell 9.61%. The core contradiction is: the AI demand narrative still exists (HBM shortage may persist until 2030+, multi-year orders signed, HBM4 is in progress), but the market is already worried about "slowing price increases + cycle top risk." When the market has maxed out "HBM scarcity + ultra-high profits," setting a record high has become a deduction. High growth meets expectations gap, and sentiment instantly shifts from "AI perpetual motion machine" to "Is it peaking?" In the short term, it's about sentiment shocks; in the medium term, it's still about whether HBM capacity release and real AI capital expenditures are delivered. Semiconductors have always been a game of expectations, and now the focus has shifted: from "Will AI demand continue to surge?" to "How much longer can this ultra-high profit margin last?" The real direction to be set next is the actual shipment volume and price of HBM4, whether Q3 results can meet expectations again, and whether free cash flow can continue to rise in sync after the expansion.The most consistent signal over the past two hours isn't bullish or bearish, but rather stop-loss within the range. Around 11:53 on OKX, BTC was about 63,728 and ETH about 1,893; BTC's funding rate was about 0.003%. The positions were not hot, but ETH was clearly weaker than the previous round. ERIC's MMT long position stops loss as planned, losing 1R; Another BTC long position in the champion chart also chose to break even, indicating that the 63k–64k price range is still stalling. Yekoi/Fengxun simply said they would wait until after the FOMC meeting, which actually fits the current market best. There are still differing views: Victorious and Follis maintain a BTC long or spot approach, while Phobia's old BTC short continues to set a stop loss at 66,580. CakeBaba pays more attention to interest rate decisions and external market fluctuations. The Fed's official website schedule confirmation meeting is being held on July 28–29, and before the news is finalized, the certainty of direction judgments is limited. There were no new qualifying opportunities in this round. Mia's GRASS long position originally planned to enter at 0.33032 and stop loss at 0.3175. OKX's current price is about 0.3173, having already reached the expiration level; Although XPL traded at 0.0815, it did not have a full stop loss or target price; PROMs cannot be verified on OKX, so none are pursued. Next, let's see if BTC can hold at 63k and if 64.2k can be broken; If ETH fails to recover 1,910, it will continue to be treated as weak and consolidating. #BTC #ETH These are for the purposes of opinion and information compilation only and do not constitute investment adviceSKHYNIX has surpassed 1,000, and the big players are clearly starting to panic If it drops sharply again, the leveraged trading will be almost completely cleared The morning earnings report showed honest good data, with both revenue and profit rising, net profit hitting a new high of 93.9 trillion yuan. But the market was not buying it because it didn't meet expectations. The valuation of AI hardware is now tightly sealed, with zero margin for error. Even a slight shortfall means it's a sign of being the first to leave It's like a ticket with a perfect person's design—if even one misstep is made, the market immediately turns hostile. But the core logic hasn't changed—the HBM barrier remains, and the pricing power is still in SK Hynix's own hands. So this isn't a fundamental issue; it's that the previous rally was too aggressive, liquidity is tight now, short-term valuations are squeezed, and selling is pouring in together. This highly consistent sell-off often happens in the final stage of a shakeout, followed by another sharp sell-off, basically hitting bottom. No one can pinpoint the exact level, but regular market watchers can feel it when the signal arrives Tonight, the Fed is the focus. Let's hear how Walsh phrases it. If the market is dovish, even if it's just a bit loose, the market rebound after being suppressed to the extreme will be very fast. If it's hawkish, there might be one final kill, but that's actually the right place to act! Keep an eye on it, the signal is about to break out of $BTC #美联储即将公布利率决议 Price has consecutively broken through the 5/20/50-day moving averages, with all period moving averages simultaneously turning downward, forming strong bearish pressure; every minor rebound triggers institutional profit-taking sell orders, quantitative stop-loss programs activate in batches, creating a negative feedback loop of selling more as prices fall and more panic selling. Hedge funds and public institutions net sold over 4.2 billion USD on the day, everything is running, retail investors are stuck at the peak, some are liquidated, some are cutting losses, and there are cries everywhere. SK Hynix disclosed its Q2 earnings before the market opened on July 29, with both revenue and operating profit below Wall Street consensus expectations, breaking the market's optimistic view of a sustained storage cycle exceeding expectations. The market logic of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" is fermenting, funds anticipate the storage price hike cycle has peaked early, and all storage sector targets are collectively fleeing; SanDisk, mainly engaged in NAND flash memory, is more sensitive to the cycle than peers, with a decline far exceeding the sector average. Tonight the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was announced, U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, the market prices in a longer duration of high interest rates; the valuation center of high-valuation cyclical tech stocks continues to decline, funds withdraw from storage, AI hardware, and other high-volatility growth stocks, shifting to consumer, pharmaceutical, and defensive sectors, further accelerating capital outflow from the storage sector. The daily RSI has dropped to an extremely oversold level of 22, but the MACD green bars continue to expand, indicating bearish momentum has not weakened; the oversold signal of the strong cyclical storage sector has limited reference value, and under panic selling, the market is prone to continued slow declines and bottoming, with very weak short-term rebound strength. Don't bottom-fish, brothers, follow the trend to short and take a quick bite then run, tonight there is still the #美联储即将公布利率决议 $SNDK $S#美联储即将公布利率决议 I am the mid-term intelligence guy. This time, the Fed will most likely keep the rate unchanged at 3.50%—3.75%, but with the Fed ditching forward guidance, the market still bets on a nearly 36% chance of a rate hike. This is the "hardest to predict" situation in recent years. A truly hawkish stance would pressure growth stock valuations, causing gold and the Nasdaq to fall first; a dovish stance would lead to a tech rebound and a recovery in risk appetite. My strategy: wait for the wording to be released in the early hours of the 30th. If hawkish, cut exposure to power, securities, and innovative drugs to avoid the sharp edge; if dovish, lightly buy into strong earnings-driven computing infrastructure. For mid-term core holdings, focus on "high dividends + earnings realization," treating the Fed's tone as a switch—no betting on direction, just timing the rhythm.$BTC BTCDrops Below $BTC 461 as Upgrade Fails to Boost Sentiment Zcash completed its Ironwood hard fork yesterday, retiring the old privacy pool and fixing a potential inflation bug. But the market reacted with a sell-off — ZEC is down 3% in 24 hours to $BTC 461. The core issue: ~3.56M ZEC ($1.7B) still stuck in the old pool, awaiting manual migration. Slow progress fuels sell-pressure fears. Classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" play. Long-term picture: Bug fixed, quantum-resistant features added. Institutions still see ZEC as a privacy-sector cornerstone. Holders should complete migration promptly and use privacy tools like Tor. #FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight #SKHynixRecordMiss 不学k线技术怎么能hold住当前美股的这种行情？虽然是暴跌，但其实是很好做的。短线上比波动小、走得慢、底部横盘震荡的加密货币的行情要好做的多。只要仓位管控合理，下半年存储龙头的美股短中线合约是很容易赚钱的。 我开始做闪迪的合约，也只是从这月的10号左右才开始，首先判定了它6.25这天已经在2374这里已经封顶，预判了它已经终结了去年2月上市后连续上涨1年半的多头趋势、即将进入周期性的回调，这个大方向确立了，那么短中线上就很好做了。当前做闪迪的交易这个阶段就相当于去年10月中旬开始从btc最高点126208开始做空，第一次跌破102000、直接空单拿到81000，再在这里做多，走的都是大波段。长线空单是主心轴，阶段性抄底是中线，阶段性底部到目标反弹范围之间短多短空都能做。这就是大级别调整周期内做单的节奏。#美联储即将公布利率决议 $BTC 🗳️ U.S. stock capital voting begins counting. Traditional market style: gaining support. High-volatility technology sector: temporarily lost shares. Internal Stock Division: Severe Divergence. US stock closing data on July 28, 2026: DIA: $526.89, +1.08% QQQ: $675.49, -0.97% AAPL: $340.08, +0.94% NVDA: $197.01, +0.25% TSLA: $307.44, -0.58% SNDK: $1,096.10, -14.25% First 🟢 vote for Dow style DIA up 1.08%, QQQ fell 0.97%, about 2.05 percentage points behind the two. Funds have not fully withdrawn from US stocks, but have shifted from high-volatility technology sectors to relatively stable large-cap and traditional industries. This is not simply a risk closure; it is more like risk repricing. 🍎 Apple still received support votes, rising 0.94%, continuing to show strong support. Nvidia rose slightly by 0.25%, but has yet to recover $200; Tesla fell 0.58%, continuing to lag behind Apple. Inside tech stocks, it's no longer about rising and falling together; each company is undergoing a new round of capital scrutiny. 🔴 SanDisk received an elimination ticket: SanDisk plunged 14.25% in a single day, with a trading volume of about 26.63 million shares closing at $1,096.10. The consecutive sharp declines indicate that the storage sector is still releasing risks. Even if a rebound occurs$TER's rise is directly related to Bybit's opening of TER trading on July 2. This is TER's first time obtaining independent trading pairs on a mainstream trading platform, whereas its circulation channels were relatively limited. The opening of new trading scenarios gives more investors the opportunity to access this asset, while also generating incremental buying interest. TER tracks the stock performance of Teradyne, the absolute leader in the global semiconductor test equipment sector. Currently, global AI infrastructure construction is at its peak. From GPUs to ASIC chips, all high-performance computing chips must undergo rigorous testing and validation before leaving the factory, and Teradyne's equipment is almost an unavoidable part of the process. Industry analysts generally believe that as demand for AI computing power continues to rise, shipments of semiconductor testing equipment will maintain double-digit growth over the next two to three years. Teradyne's own financial data is also quite robust, with recently announced quarterly order volumes exceeding market expectations, especially with significant growth in customer demand from the U.S. and Southeast Asia. These fundamental factors are already fermenting, and the opening of the TER trading channel happens to resonate at this timing, allowing more traders to easily participate in this logic. The market always favors liquidity expansion targets, and TER's recent rise is a typical example of a "fundamental narrative + liquidity improvement" dual driver.Honestly, I sincerely reflect on the current market: this round of sharp declines is not caused by a single negative factor, but is a systematic liquidation of the global AI bubble. Since the exposure of Nvidia's "self-financing and self-selling" scam, the belief in AI band banding has completely weakened. Tech giants in the US and Korean stocks have plunged consecutively, with high-level drawdowns generally around 40%-50%, putting pressure on leveraged funds across the board. After this spread to the A-share market, leading AI optical modules, storage, and chip stocks collectively flopped, heavyweight stocks crashed the Innovation and Entrepreneurship Index, and the profit-making effect was completely wiped out. But the market was extremely fragmented: the index showed full bearish patterns, and most small and mid-cap stocks and traditional industry stocks resisted the trend and recovered. This year's A-share market has been disruptive. The tech structure bull market in the first half of the year was tempting, with countless people following suit and adding positions. However, in July, there was a unilateral pullback, with losses far exceeding those of an ordinary bear market. More importantly, the market declined on reduced volume without stabilizing action, indicating that this round of valuation clearing is still ongoing and is unlikely to stabilize in the short term. Looking at the bigger picture, the entire financial ecosystem has entered a phase of risk repricing. Global tech assets are deflating bubbles, risk appetite continues to decline, and funds are fully hedging risks. The crypto market has also lost its support for speculation, weakening along with the equity market. Whether it's A-share tech or the crypto sector, both have bid farewell to the mindless rally era and entered a brutal bubble-squeezing cycle. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $BTC #美联储即将公布利率决议 #银行业联名施压, CLARITY stablecoin terms may be regenerated Today, the Korean index hit the circuit breaker again, dropping like a kimchi jar. Retail investors haven't finished crying yet. The central bank keeps hitting the plate, saying inflation will exceed target in the second half of the year, so tightening is necessary and the market stability work continues. $BTC $ETH $SNDK literally means first raising rates, then pressing the chopping block for CPR. Anyone with eyes can see it. This is deliberate deleveraging, first crashing the stock market to force leveraged investors to surrender, then throwing a spoonful of rate hike oil on them, then calling themselves firefighters. Retail investors ask about stability, and the central bank replies: steady decline, steady liquidation, steady slap in the face. This is called expectation management. It drops so low that no one dares to bottom-fish The market naturally stabilized. This round of South Korea's decline isn't just a simple economic issue—it's a deliberately deleveraging process. Big stocks like SK Hynix and Samsung have been hit hard, the semiconductor sector is being crushed and rubbed against the floor. Korean stock market circuit breakers are shaking as well. Korean retail investors are being attacked from both sides. After the stock market loses, the crypto world loses. Sentiment is shattered. Central bank stability and retail investors' understanding of stability have never been the same thing. #FedSoonRateDecision #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon to deliver tonight. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks are experiencing sharp volatility Privacy is getting a serious upgrade. 🔒 Zcash's Ironwood network upgrade is now live. $ZEC A new verified shielded pool is active, and the turnstile mechanism is ensuring supply integrity. No shortcuts. No compromises. Grayscale Zcash Trust (ticker: $ZCSH) remains the only pure-play exposure to $ZEC available in select U.S. brokerage accounts. Institutional-grade access, native privacy tech. The infrastructure is hardening. The narrative is clean. Watch the shielded side.Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will release their earnings reports this Wednesday and Thursday, shifting market attention from "how much growth AI can bring to the imagination" to "when will the massive investment yield real cash returns?" After Alphabet was sold off due to increased capital expenditure and Tesla posted its largest weekly drop since 2022, investors' patience with tech giants continuing to expand data centers and purchase AI chips is waning. One of the indicators the market cares about most right now is "free cash flow." Because even if revenue and profits continue to grow, as long as capital expenditures increase faster, the cash that companies can truly retain may still be significantly squeezed. Therefore, in addition to observing the growth rates of cloud businesses like Azure and AWS in this financial report, attention should also be paid to whether AI products are starting to generate real revenue and whether management has raised capital expenditure guidance again. If cloud growth and AI commercialization cannot keep up with spending, market concerns about the AI investment payback period may continue to grow; Conversely, if free cash flow improves and capital expenditure growth slows, this wave of AI investment anxiety may temporarily ease. The market is not currently distrusting AI, but rather unwilling to pay for expenses without a clear payback period. The above content is solely for personal research results and viewpoint sharing. Rational discussion is welcome and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing carries risks; please assess and make decisions prudently. #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will hand over their results tonight 📊 "OKX Community Bullish and Bearish Sentiment Map" (7.29) By organizing the publicly available market opinion samples, it is clear that the current market is in a rather special phase: funds have not fully exited risk assets, but trading attitudes are shifting from "actively chasing rallies" to "waiting for confirmation." Whether it's the crypto $BTC $ETH or the US AI, $SNDK semiconductor, and storage sectors, the biggest common psychological trait among retail investors right now is: Long-term optimism about industry logic; short-term concerns about price and valuation. The market has gradually shifted from the "buying expectations" phase over the past two years to a "watch for deliveries" phase. @张教主. Brothers, the Korean stock market has experienced a "Black Tuesday"! South Korea's KOSPI index triggered the circuit breaker mechanism for two consecutive days on July 28 and 29, spreading market panic and making the semiconductor sector a hard-hit area. Event Overview: On July 28, the KOSPI index fell to 8%, first triggering a suspension of programmatic trading, then officially triggering circuit breakers. On July 29, KOSPI plunged another 8.17%, simultaneously triggering circuit breakers in the KOSDAQ index, causing trading halts for 20 minutes both times. After the circuit breaker is triggered, all stock, futures, and options market trading in South Korea's securities market is suspended simultaneously. What happened? On the surface: Semiconductor sector collapses collectively. The core driving force behind this sharp drop is the collective weakness of major semiconductor-related stocks. Although leading companies like Samsung Electronics performed strongly, they failed to stop the overall market downtrend, with stocks ranked high by market capitalization generally falling sharply. In-depth Look: Triple Pressure Stacked 1. US semiconductor crash transmission transmission: Last night, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the US stock market plunged over 5%, SanDisk and Western Digital dropped over 12%, and AMD dropped over 8%. South Korea's semiconductor industry is highly linked to US stocks, and panic quickly spreads across the ocean. 2. Concerns over AI capital efficiency spread: Market doubts about whether massive AI investments can be converted into profits are spreading from the US to Asia. Japanese and Korean semiconductor stocks have been under pressure for several consecutive days. 3. Macroeconomic Uncertainty: With the Federal Reserve's rate decision approaching and geopolitical risks rising, funds are choosing to reduce positions and exit before uncertainty materializes. #停火48小时告吹, the US and Iran negotiated while fighting The ceasefire lasted only 48 hours. On July 27, just after the two sides paused their attacks, on the morning of July 29, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard launched multiple ballistic missiles from their homeland at U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East. The U.S. military claimed to have intercepted all of them. Subsequently, the U.S. Central Command announced that it and Saudi Arabia had jointly struck targets commanded by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard within Iraq—in response to Iran's attacks on U.S. forces and Saudi energy facilities. Both sides are fighting, but both sides are negotiating. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister revealed that Oman has proposed a temporary concession plan for the Strait of Hormuz—with Iran and Oman each controlling 50% of the passage rights. Iran demanded that the sea route be fully controlled by its side, which has not yet been accepted. U.S. officials confirmed that the coordination plan does not involve any tolls. According to Solid Intel, after Iran and Oman approved the new proposal for the strait, the U.S. and Iran are close to restoring the previous 60-day memorandum of understanding, but Washington's approval remains pending. (1) Oil prices have already responded After the news broke, WTI crude rebounded above $80. Previously, due to expectations of a ceasefire, WTI plunged 8.68% in a single day to around $77. The geopolitical risk premium is rapidly returning. If a ceasefire is ultimately reached, oil prices could fall back to the $70-75 range; If negotiations break down and the conflict continues to escalate, oil prices may test $85-90 again. (2) What does this mean for the crypto market? The collapse of ceasefire expectations means inflation expectations are heating up again. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations rise, and when inflation expectations rise, the Fed dares not easily pivot. BTC fluctuated between 64,000 and 65,000, ETH traded sideways between 1,860 and 1,890, and the impact of oil prices is slowly transmitted through the chain of "oil prices→ inflation→ interest rates, →risk assets." The FOMC rate decision will be announced early Thursday morning, Beijing time, and the market is waiting for clearer signals. (3) My judgment A broken ceasefire does not mean an escalation of the war; diplomatic channels remain intact, and the Oman plan is still underway. The market may reprice this conflict as a "manageable level of edge friction" rather than the start of a full-scale war. Next, three key points to consider: first, whether the U.S. and Iran will restore the 60-day memorandum of understanding; Second, whether the joint management plan for the Strait of Hormuz can be accepted by both sides; Third, whether oil prices will stabilize above $85. Before the FOMC decision is implemented, observe more and act less, waiting for clearer signals. $CL $BTC $ETH On the Nth day of studying US stocks, today I suddenly thought of a point. Whenever something new is born, most people's first reaction is to study it, experience it, and think about how to participate. But many investors in the capital market are watching another thing: who is selling shovels for this wave. AI is the most typical example. From the sudden emergence of ChatGPT to the full-scale explosion of AI, several years of industrial development took place. Many people are discussing which model is the strongest and which application is the best, but the ones who truly make the first wave of big money are not just the AI companies themselves, but the entire industry chain. Here's a very real case. When ChatGPT was first released at the end of 2022, almost everyone's attention was on OpenAI, discussing how AI could write articles, draw images, and code. But the capital market quickly realized that every time AI generates content, it requires massive GPU computing power behind it. As a result, the market began to aggressively lay out Nvidia, and with the explosive demand for GPUs, it further drove the entire HBM high-bandwidth storage, optical modules, servers, liquid cooling, data centers, and power supply chain. The final outcome is well known: many people did not invest in OpenAI (at the time, ordinary investors couldn't do it either), but by investing in NVIDIA and AI infrastructure-related companies, they reaped one of the biggest dividends of this AI bull market. This is also my biggest insight recently. Investment andFrom the RSI indicator, Bitcoin has already formed a bullish divergence on the weekly K-line, but on-chain data does not yet support a major bottom. Realized Price and LTH RP have not been broken, with a CVDD around 48K, about 25% away, so I believe there is a very high probability of one last drop. This final drop is likely to build on the existing bullish divergence by adding a larger time range to the previous bearish divergence. This situation also occurred in 2022. $BTC Brothers, tonight is destined to be sleepless. At 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve will announce one of the most unpredictable interest rate decisions in recent years. BTC briefly fell below $63,000 yesterday, hitting an 11-day low, and is now barely catching its breath around $63,800. This wave of selling is all about "clearing mines" for tonight. --- 1. Suspense at its peak: 30% chance of a rate hike, unprecedented How special is this meeting? Simply put, three things: · Market expectations are severely divided: Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is about 30%, while the chance of no change is about 70%. Don’t underestimate this 30%; in past years before Fed decisions, market expectations were almost always 99% one-sided. UBS economists bluntly say, "It’s never been this uncertain in 20 years." · Waller abandons "forward guidance": The new Fed Chair Waller has clearly given up on the practice of signaling the interest rate path to the market in advance. Without a "policy compass," the market can only guess, which is the root cause of such huge divergence this time. · Rare internal conflict among institutions: JPMorgan believes the rate hike probability is lower than the market pricing (maintaining no change, hawkish statement), but Castle Securities is clearly betting on an "unexpected 25 basis point hike." There may also be at least two hawkish dissenting votes within the Fed. 2. Bitcoin is different this time Interestingly, although the market is seeking safety, Bitcoin and AI tech stocks are showing signs of decoupling: · Since July, BTC has risen about 6%, the S&P 500 is basically flat, while the semiconductor index has dropped nearly 20% · K33 Research points out that the Nasdaq was previously overcrowded, while Bitcoin has been consolidating near multi-year lows; the weakening correlation between the two is natural · Analysts believe that if Waller sends any dovish signals, Bitcoin may continue to show relative strength Of course, this doesn’t mean BTC will be unscathed tonight. $15.4 billion in long positions were just liquidated, and the market is still digesting this "leverage purge." 3. How will tonight go? Two scenarios Scenario A: No change + hawkish tone (most likely) JPMorgan predicts about a 50% chance, with the S&P 500 fluctuating between +0.25% and -0.5%. BTC will likely oscillate between 63,000 and 65,000, with no big surprises. Scenario B: Unexpected 25 basis point hike (30% chance) If this happens, tech stocks will take the hardest hit, and the Nasdaq 100’s decline could double. BTC support could drop to 62,000 or even 60,000. Castle Securities is betting on this direction to assert authority and fight inflation. There’s also a small probability event: if Waller "goes dovish" tonight (28% chance), BTC might have a chance to challenge above 65,000 again. My judgment Don’t heavily bet on direction before the meeting. Under this "once in thirty years" uncertainty, the cost of being wrong is too high. Operationally, wait for the 2 a.m. result. If no change + a non-aggressive statement, the bearish logic is falsified, and you can lightly try going long; if there’s an unexpected hike, don’t bottom-fish—wait for the emotional venting to finish before looking for opportunities. Remember: in this market, staying alive is more important than making money. 💡 💬 Interactive topic: Are you betting on "rate hike" or "no change" tonight? Leave your name in the comments, and come back tomorrow to see who the prophet is. #美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 The decline in US stocks and the rise in Korean stocks indicate that the core of the capital divide is not the loss of demand, but differences in valuation and transaction structure. HBM4 has already started to ramp up volume, and long-term contracts are locking in orders and profits, so fundamentals are actually more stable than the spot cycle. Once high expectations are digested, the market will eventually resume trading for the next round of shipment growth. Gaps in financial reports are responsible for squeezing out high valuations. HBM4 continues to ramp up volume, which is responsible for igniting SKHY's next round of repair.$SNDK The sharp drop in AI hardware is a short-term form of deleveraging! However, SanDisk will still struggle to escape the Fed's decision suppression in the short term AI hardware continues to experience deep corrections, and more and more people are beginning to question whether the long-term logic of AI storage has collapsed. Serenity's latest perspective offers a different conclusion: the current sharp drop in the sector is essentially an overshoot caused by short-term deleveraging, not a deterioration in fundamentals. But a key reminder: while the long-term logic is solid≠ the short-term bottom will be immediate. The Federal Reserve's rate decision on July 30 remains the most important variable suppressing SanDisk's $SNDK! I. Summary of Key Core Information 1. Fundamental support remains in place Multiple companies continue to deliver strong growth in their earnings, with Google raising its 2026 capital expenditure to $195-205 billion, making its AI expansion determination clear as a cloud provider. The market has exaggerated the negative factors of Fed rate hikes and domestic storage overcapacity. Subsequent financial reports from SanDisk and SK Hynix are expected to continue confirming the acceleration in AI storage demand. Long-term procurement agreements between Meta and Google, and HBM industry chain cooperation, confirm that AI storage has structural long-term incremental potential. 2. Qualitative pullback: Deleveraging funds, not logic collapse This round of storage and AI hardware sell-offs is due to the concentrated withdrawal of high-level leveraged funds causing volatility. As long as industry chain revenue and profitability continue to accelerate, the long-term recovery logic for the AI sector remains unchanged, but institutions admit they cannot accurately predict the exact time of the bottom. 2. In-depth analysis of SanDisk's $SNDK market trends Long-term Dimension: The underlying logic behind the continued expansion of AI server SSD demand has not disappeared. Institutions expect earnings reports to continue testing demand, and the extreme panic decline will gradually digest the valuation bubble. Short-term core conflicts: Long-term positive factors cannot offset the immediate macro pressure! On July 30, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is about to be finalized. 1. If the Fed sends a hawkish signal, rate cut expectations will be delayed. High-valuation tech assets will continue to be under pressure. SanDisk's current rebound is merely an oversold recovery, and the bottoming cycle will be extended. Do not mistake a rebound for a reversal. 2. If a somewhat accommodative signal is released and market sentiment warms up, combined with fundamental expectations, SanDisk is likely to see a stronger recovery. However, with a large amount of trapped positions accumulating above, the upward trend will be volatile and unlikely, making it difficult to achieve a single-sided straight rise. 3. Clear practical implementation approach ✅ Traders who are stranded in positions Don't use 'long-term logic' as a reason to hold on. Any rebound before or after the rate decision is an optimization window for positioning. Reduce positions in batches during rebounds to lower holding risk; Maintain a base position for long-term recovery, free up funds to face the risk of a second downturn, and avoid full positions with hard resistance. ✅ Traders ready to enter the market to buy the dip No buying the left side to bottom-fish now! Institutions have not yet been able to confirm the bottom position. Choose one of two safe entry conditions: (1) The Federal Reserve's decision is being implemented, fully digesting negative news; (2) The market continues to stabilize, emerging from the bottom structure. If conditions are met, try and error with smaller positions, build positions in batches, and eliminate the all-in gamble at once. ✅ Short-term traders Volatility before and after the decision will sharply increase, making it suitable only for short-term games to rally oversold rebounds. Strictly set stop-loss marks, target short-term rebound profits, decisively take profits at resistance levels, and do not focus on long-term trading; Once the market surges and stagnates, immediately abandon the bullish approach. ✅ Short-selling approach reference If the decision is hawkish and the rebound is weak, stagnant resistance levels can continue to be lightly shorted; If the decision releases expectations of easing, avoid shorting with the trend and do not go against macro sentiment. Long-term demand logic still remains. In the short term, the Fed's decision will set the direction. Do you think SanDisk can start a recovery after the rate decision? Share your views in the comments section, and recommend collecting to keep track of market changes. ⚠️ Risk Warning: The content is solely market logic analysis and does not constitute any trading advice. US stocks are highly volatile due to the dual impact of policies and capital flows. Participate rationally and strictly control positions. $SNDK $MU #美联储即将公布利率决议 $SKHYNIX Outstanding performance, yet the stock price has diverged dramatically! Revenue, operating profit, and net profit all hit record highs. Operating profit surged 557% year-on-year! However, revenue and operating profit still did not meet market expectations. This financial report is far more complicated than the word "good news"! SK Hynix's Q2 revenue reached 79.32 trillion KRW, operating profit was 60.54 trillion KRW, and net profit surged to 93.92 trillion KRW. However, the market had previously set even higher expectations, with both revenue and operating profit falling short, and only net profit significantly exceeding expectations driven by investment returns. The divergence is also directly reflected in the stock price: SKHY's U.S. stock plunged nearly 9% during regular trading hours, while Korean domestic stocks rebounded about 4%. It's not that storage demand suddenly collapsed, but rather that the company's share of high-end HBM continues to rise, and with long-term contracts locked in prices from about 10 core customers, performance stability is stronger. However, the profit elasticity of enjoying the short-term surge in spot prices has also been weakened. The good news is that HBM4 began mass shipments in the second quarter and will continue to ramp up in the second half; HBM4E samples have also been delivered. The real debate in the market is not whether there is still demand for AI storage, but how long such high profit growth can last. $ETH $SNDK #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp volatility #交易所定价异常致海力士永续暴跌 The data is already strong, but market expectations are even crazier than the data. This isn't a collapse in fundamentals, but rather a high valuation facing harsher judgment.Now, about trading: group members can't handle it either, so let's string them together. A major oscillation cycle where US stocks and macro cycles diverge Trading rate hike expectations isn't about raising rates; my forecast this year is that the market won't open the straits before June (positions have been closed), and there won't be a rate hike this year. Changxin is smoothing out the overdrawn $SKHYNIX supply-demand premium $SPCX at 186 was flat All of the above are just hindsight views; you can find them in past posts. As for Meilishi's recent move, I originally planned to wait two days for Changxin to rise and then gradually add shorts. Unfortunately, Meilishi was even faster than me, and Hanlishi's mid-rebound meant my position was limited. Blame me for being timid, so I haven't traded much in US stocks. The top sister said that even over the weekend, Bstock's trading volume surpassed $1 billion. This massive transaction increase has occurred in two places: First, hedge funds initially shifted their holdings from Hanli City to Meili City. Second, oil prices fell this weekend, and Changxin went public. From trading habits, it is clear that many are traditional capital trading practices. It also shows that many traditional capital companies have entered OKX, and its development is really fast. $BTC #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver tonight. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations #美联储即将公布利率决议 Before the Fed's rate decision, the most discussed topic in the market was whether there would be rate cuts. But for the crypto market, what truly determines the market may not be this meeting itself. Because the market has already traded in some interest rate cut expectations in advance, what truly matters is whether the liquidity environment will change in the future and whether funds are willing to re-enter crypto risk assets In recent years, the crypto market has undergone a major transformation, evolving from liquidity frenzy during the low interest rate era to capital selection in a high interest rate environment. During periods of low interest rates, market funds are abundant and risk appetite is extremely high. At that time, a narrative, a concept, or an ecosystem could attract massive capital to drive valuations. That's why we've seen explosions in DeFi, NFT, GameFi, and various public chain ecosystems. But after entering the high interest rate cycle, market logic began to change. The money hasn't disappeared, it's just become more cautious. Many people still hold onto the mindset of the old bull market, thinking that as soon as rate cuts start, all coins will rise. The future market will no longer be like in 2021, where a white paper, a story, or a grand vision can be valued at billions of dollars. Loose liquidity is just a condition. But not a reason for price increases,🚨 Two mega-cap earnings reports. One takeaway: markets are looking beyond headline beats. Alphabet delivered a strong quarter, reporting $BTC 119.8B in Q2 revenue, while Google Cloud continued to post robust growth. Yet $GOOGL fell more than 4% after hours. Why? Investors focused on the outlook rather than the results. Alphabet raised its 2026 capex guidance to $BTC 195B–$205B, up from $BTC 180B–$190B, while free cash flow slipped into negative territory. AI remains a powerful growth story, but Wall Street is becoming increasingly concerned about the cost of funding it. Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are now expected to spend a combined $725B on capex in 2026 ,around 77% more than last year. The market is rewarding more than earnings beats. Forward guidance, cash flow, and AI spending are becoming just as important. Tesla told a different story. The company still holds 11,509 BTC, unchanged since 2022. Despite reporting a $112M quarterly loss tied to Bitcoin's earlier decline, Tesla neither sold nor added to its position. No panic. No accumulation. Just HODL. 📊 Why this matters for crypto: • $BTC continues to benefit from steady ETF inflows. • Crypto remains closely correlated with the Nasdaq 100, making Big Tech earnings increasingly influential. • Upcoming results from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon could shape both equity and crypto sentiment through their guidance. One advantage for crypto traders: while US stock markets close after hours, crypto never sleeps. With OKX tokenised US stocks trading 24/7 in $USDT , assets like $XGOOGL and $XTSLA remain tradable through earnings releases and weekends. 👀 Will the next wave of Big Tech earnings strengthen or weaken crypto sentiment? #FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight #SKHynixRecordMiss After the $SKHYNIX SK Hynix stock price experienced a flash crash and massive liquidations triggered by an oracle capturing an abnormally low pre-market price on July 28, the continued decline on the 29th did not trigger a new round of large-scale liquidations. This round of decline has already cleared a large number of high-leverage long positions in advance, significantly changing the market structure. The current open interest has counterintuitively increased by nearly 20%, indicating that bottom-fishing funds are still continuously entering the market. However, the position structure reveals a key divergence: the number of long accounts is more than three times that of short accounts, but the average position size per account is much smaller than that of shorts. Whale positions over $5 million are clearly biased toward the short side, with a net short scale of about $34.3 million, while small accounts under $10,000 are about 90% long. This indicates that current losses are dispersed among many small long holders, while whales with capital advantages are betting on a downside with larger single positions. This is not simply retail bottom-fishing; rather, after a deep market shakeout, large funds and retail investors have formed a standoff in directional choices, and subsequent volatility may intensify Polygon CEO Sandeep: Polymarket achieved great success during the World Cup Polymarket has created over 300 World Cup-related markets, with a single market reaching $4.2 billion in trading volume From Polygon's perspective, they do not want Polymarket to leave and build its own chain Since the beginning of this year, Polymarket activity has consistently contributed over 50% of daily transaction fees on the Polygon network The better Polymarket is, the easier Polygon is making money For Polymarket, the two partnerships are thriving, and it seems to give them more reasons to delay chain development and even token issuance...现金流为王！复盘谷歌暴跌，看懂今夜美股行情走向 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷 💎$GOOGL 大跌的核心前车之鉴：市场估值逻辑彻底反转 谷歌营收、云业务增速全线大幅超预期，最终股价却重挫，根源彻底改变了华尔街评判AI巨头的标准： 1. 上市22年首次季度自由现金流转负：AI算力基建疯狂烧钱，单季资本开支同比翻倍，经营赚到的现金完全覆盖不了投入；年内两次上调全年资本开支上限，还预告2027年投入继续加码，现金持续被算力建设吞噬。 2. 过往资金追捧“谁砸钱扩算力谁领跑AI”，如今只看重现金流健康度、AI投入回本周期。无休止加码资本开支、无法兑现盈利回报，直接触发机构集中抛售，高位AI成长股迎来估值挤泡沫行情 。 3. 谷歌作为现金流最稳健的科技蓝筹尚且承压，市场普遍担忧微软、Meta、亚马逊会复刻加码开支的路线，纳指连日震荡走弱，存储、算力硬件板块同步崩盘。 $MU、 $SKHYNIX、$SNDK $NVDA $SAMSUNG 🧬三家企业各自底气与潜在隐患，守住盘面难度分化 1. 微软$MSFT ：守住盘面概率最高（韧性最强） ✅利好支撑： 依托ABottom-fishing storage sector!! Others panic, I am greedy, Currently, the storage sector is undergoing a deep correction, SK Hynix's $SKHYNIX Intraday Decline Widens to 12%, Samsung Electronics $SAMSUNG fell 7.5%. US-listed SanDisk $SNDK has been "halved" since July, But this round of decline is more an emotional outburst than a deterioration in fundamentals, AI demand remains robust, SK Hynix's Q2 operating profit surged 557% year-on-year, Moreover, storage is shifting from cyclical products to growth products. Bank of America points out that storage stocks are valued at only 10 times the forward PE, Seriously low to low levels; Next, South Korea's stock market fell over 8% intraday, Multiple temporary suspension adjustments, The market is in a state of extreme panic, In early trading, South Korea signaled a market rescue, Good news is expected in the afternoon, This drove the storage sector to rebound from the bottom. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experience sharp volatility #英伟达. Google provides massive guarantees for AI data center debt The topic we discuss is essentially about networking resources. If everyone in our group is good friends and XX company is going public, then everyone can allocate some shares, which means they can subscribe to new shares early, which is basically a cash gift. Take a look On July 27, Changxin Technology Group Co., Ltd. was officially listed on the STAR Market. On its first day of listing, its stock price surged, closing up 465.82% and its market value rising to 3.28 trillion yuan, making it the company with the highest market capitalization on the A-share market. According to Elephant News, Wuhan also participated in Changxin Technology's strategic placement, receiving 18.2448 million shares. Based on the issue price of 8.66 yuan per share, the company made a profit of 736 million yuan on its first day of listing. This company is Wuhan 1810 Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., established in 2021, with its office located in Wuhan East Lake High-tech Zone. It is worth noting that Wuhan 1810 Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xiaomi Technology. The chairman of Xiaomi Technology is Lei Jun, who holds 97.48% of Xiaomi Technology's shares. In other words, Lei Jun made a floating profit of 717 million yuan on Changxin Technology's first day of listing through Wuhan 1810. $CORE Victoria Harbour cruise ship champagne keeps popping, 90% hash rate hyped, but the market price keeps falling to 0.015. The official tweet claims to control 90% of BTC's hash rate, but in essence, it's just a trick to use statistical standards: 90% is just the number of mining pools with delegate functions enabled, and the on-chain real-time effective hash rate is only 30% of the total BTC network. Miners mark blocks just to extract CORE inflation tokens, with no deep binding. The three major profit flywheels—SatPay payment, B14G dual staking, and ecosystem buyback—all fell through and failed to generate revenue. The team unlocked massive amounts of zero-cost tokens every month and continuously sold them through quantitative trading. On one hand, the Hong Kong cruise ship celebrated its success and built momentum; on the other, it used the sky-high 5U–15U price to trap all retail investors. Computing power is just an empty concept; unlocking selling pressure is the reality. Blindly heavy positions and staking will only amplify unrealized losses. #CORE #CoreDAO#苹果公司市值重回全球首位, surpassing Nvidia Apple is truly impressive, pushing Nvidia down from the world's top market value position. At Monday's close, Apple rose 1.17% to $336.91, with a market value of $4.95 trillion. Nvidia fell nearly 5%, dropping straight back to 4.76 trillion. Back and forth, the gap has widened to nearly 180 billion. The last time Apple sat in this position was in April 2025. Over the past year, NVIDIA has surged through AI chips, first surpassing Microsoft and then reaching the top. But now Apple has overtaken it—not because Apple has done something earth-shattering, but because the market is starting to recalculate the score of AI. Nvidia's stock price has only risen 4% this year, while Apple has already risen 24%. One is burning money desperately to build AI infrastructure, the other is cautiously spending on renting computing power. The market now clearly prefers the latter's script. Apple released its earnings report after the market closed on Thursday. If it can hold its ground this week, this position will truly be secured.BTC bullish target prices are densely distributed between 100K-140K, Ethereum between $5,000 and $8,000, but does the current market already have the liquidity conditions to support these valuations? Based on the original post, the author provided bullish target ranges for several coins over the next six months: BTC 100K-140K, ETH 5K-8K, SOL 300-500, DOT 20-80, APT 30-50, and so on. These figures themselves are not factual, but are projections based on three assumptions: "continued liquidity improvement, tight supply after the halving, and sustained expansion of on-chain activity." The key question is: have these conditions been fulfilled at present, or are they still expected? On a factual level, the Bitcoin halving in April 2024 occurred, with block rewards dropping from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, and new supply has indeed narrowed. However, liquidity improvement is not a definite path—the pace of Fed rate cuts and US dollar liquidity indicators (such as the Fed's reverse repo instrument balance, TGA account changes) are still in the game. On the side of on-chain activity, Bitcoin active addresses and trading volume have not shown a trend surge after the halving, and the dilution effect of mainnet activity from Ethereum L2 scaling continues. In terms of market structure, current capital behavior shows clear divergence. Passive allocation (such as spot ETF inflows) is the main force supporting BTC prices, but short-term speculative funds tend to favor MEME coins and new public chain tokens with low circulation and high FDV, rather than established ecosystem coins like DOT and AVAX listed in the original post. This means that if you only look at the target range, it's easy to overlook the question of "who will take over"—old coins need new narrative catalysts to attract speculative capital, which the current market does not provide. Transmission logic: If BTC breaks 100K, it requires sustained net ETF inflows + macro easing expectations fulfilled + on-chain fees rebound (proving real usage demand). All three are indispensable. For ETH to break 5K, L2 ecosystem value must flow back to the mainnet (such as the blob fee market matures after EIP-4844) or capital spillover after ETF approval. Altcoin target ranges rely more on BTC's capital spillover effect after stabilizing at a high level, but if BTC consolidates in the 80-90K range, the liquidity premium of altcoins will shrink rapidly. Bullish path: Assuming the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points in September, combined with pre-election policy expectations, BTC could reach 100K in Q4-2025. ETH and SOL may follow, but DOT and APT will need independent ecosystem development, otherwise their gains will lag. Bearish risk: If sticky inflation forces the Fed to maintain high interest rates, or if ETF inflows slow, BTC may fall back to the 70-75K range, at which point altcoins will face a 30-50% correction. High-risk tokens like ICE and PNUT mentioned in the original post may be cut in half when liquidity tightens. Conclusion: These target ranges are reasonable "bull market scenario" assumptions, but the current market has yet to confirm macro and on-chain conditions supporting this scenario. It is worth watching whether BTC can hold steadily above 90K with continuous volume growth, and whether weekly net inflows into ETH spot ETFs remain positive. If neither occurs, these targets lean more toward psychological anchors than actionable pricing references. Risk Warning: The above analysis is based on assumptions, and the market may deviate rapidly due to regulatory, technical, or macro events. Please independently verify data and manage your position. $BTC $ETH $SOLCeasefireHitsCrude: As Oil Cools, Global Markets Begin Repricing Risk After weeks of being driven higher by geopolitical tensions, crude oil is entering a new phase as growing confidence in a ceasefire reduces fears of supply disruptions. WTI crude has retreated to around $BTC 80 per barrel, down sharply from its recent peak near $BTC 93.5. This is more than a technical pullback—it reflects a significant shift in market expectations. As the perceived threat to global energy supplies eases, investors are no longer willing to pay the premium that had been built into oil prices. What makes this move particularly important is that the market is now being influenced more by macro headlines than by traditional supply-and-demand fundamentals. A single announcement regarding the ceasefire or an unexpected development in the Middle East could rapidly change sentiment and trigger another wave of volatility. If lower oil prices persist, global inflationary pressure could continue to ease. That would be closely watched by central banks, equity markets, and the crypto industry alike. Cheaper energy often improves overall risk appetite, creating a more supportive environment for growth assets such as $BTC, $ETH, and leading AI-related tokens. That said, the oil market has a long history of sharp reversals. While the recent decline is notable, it does not necessarily confirm a long-term bearish trend. Investors should continue monitoring both geopolitical developments and key technical support levels before drawing firm conclusions. CeasefireHitsCrude is no longer just an oil story. It may be the first signal that global markets are entering a new phase—one where geopolitical risk gradually gives way to renewed confidence, allowing capital to rotate back toward higher-growth assets and new investment opportunities. #FedRateDecision #BigTechEarningsNight #SKHynixRecordMiss Earnings season hits a make-or-break night, and this time even a beat might not be enough. Tesla, Intel and Alphabet all posted solid numbers and still got sold off, purely on AI spending fears. Alphabet beat expectations and dropped anyway. The Nasdaq 100 has since slipped into a technical correction, and short sellers are now piling into Meta, Amazon and Microsoft right before they report. The market is leaning bearish going in. Microsoft and Meta report after Wednesday's US close, with Amazon right behind. Here's the setup: · Microsoft: Azure guided to 39-40% growth, but 2026 capex is running near $190B, with over $40B in a single quarter · Meta: revenue seen jumping about 27% to $60B, with capex guidance ballooning to $125-145B. It's also the cheapest name in the group at about 18x forward earnings · Amazon: EPS eyed near $1.85, AWS growth and margins in focus Zoom out and the number is staggering. Together with Alphabet, these giants are set to spend roughly $724B on capex this year, and nearly $950B in 2027. Investors want proof all that cash is turning into revenue, not just bigger data center bills. One soft cloud number could reset the entire AI trade. The market is bracing for fireworks. Options are pricing swings of roughly 8% for Meta and 7% for Microsoft and Amazon on these prints. Microsoft alone could move nearly $189B in value on a single report, more than the market cap of most companies on earth. Here's the catch: all of this lands after the US close, when traditional markets are shut. On OKX, tokenized US stocks like $XMSFT , $XMETA and $XAMZN trade 24/7, so you can react the moment the numbers hit instead of waiting for the next session to open. If one of these swings 8% after hours, while traditional markets are still shut, do you jump on the move right away, or wait for the dust to settle? #BigTechEarningsNight 韩国股市接连熔断暴跌，全球金融危机前兆？历史正在重演... 很多人把韩国暴跌当段子看，觉得只是隔壁行情震荡。错！这很可能就是新一轮全球风暴的煤矿里的金丝雀！ 看看历史教科书： • 2020疫情：韩股熔断→3周后美股四次熔断 • 2008次贷：韩股7月缴械→1个半月后雷曼破产 • 2000互联网泡沫：韩国半导体提前3个月见顶→纳指随后暴跌80% • 1997亚洲金融：韩国第一个被击穿→12天后美股破位 为什么永远是韩国？ 全球资本优先级铁律：先保本土，再弃外围。 欧美机构钱不够时，第一件事就是卖掉流动性好的海外资产（日韩）回血救火！ 韩国完美踩中所有"献祭"特征： ✓ 资本市场全开放，资金进出自由 ✓ 外资占30%+，三星海力士是全球抛售首选 ✓ 出口导向型经济，全球退潮时摔得最惨 现在的剧本： 半导体泡沫破裂+资本外逃，潮水先从韩国退去，接下来会顺着产业链→亚太市场→欧美本土层层传导。 关键转折点：看美联储！ 2020年靠无限QE强行续命，这次如果美联储不降息托底（甚至继续加息），真正的全球金融危机就要来了！ 历史不会简单重复，但资本抽血的底层逻辑从来没变过。 彼时彼刻，恰如此时此刻。$SKHYNIX $SNDK $BTC #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 #HYPE遭大额解押减持，一周回落10% #英伟达、谷歌为AI数据中心债务提供巨额担保
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