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$ETH This short-term surge has exposed a fatal detail: although the price has risen, the bulls are quietly retreating during the rebound!
The total long positions in the market have shrunk to less than 300 million U, while on the contrary, the shorts have nearly a thousand traders pushing the short position size to nearly 1.5 billion U, with capital volume more than five times that of the bulls!
The number of large short holders is more than twice that of the longs. These giant whales dare to hold nearly 1.5 billion U in short positions during the rebound because they are confident that the heavy trapped positions at 2576 above will weigh down the bulls, who have no follow-up funds to push the price higher!
While the bulls are busy reducing positions to escape during the rebound, the large short holders are continuously adding positions to block the way. Understanding this capital flow means you can just enter the market to short and be done with it! [The RMB rises to a three-year high, is the US dollar really losing appeal this time?]
The RMB midpoint against the US dollar rose to 6.7208, the highest since February 2023. A 12 basis point increase may not seem much, but the direction behind it is more worth pondering: the RMB is strengthening.
However, don’t rush to interpret this as the US dollar falling all the way. Exchange rates are influenced simultaneously by China-US interest rate differentials, trade settlements, central bank midpoint management, and market expectations. A single-day adjustment doesn’t reveal much.
For Chinese companies, RMB appreciation compresses some export firms’ foreign exchange gains but lowers import costs; for those holding US dollar assets, converting back to RMB may yield less profit.
I think this can be seen as a signal to observe the relative strength between the US dollar and RMB, rather than a direct reason to bet on a certain asset class. Going forward, it depends on whether the RMB can continue to strengthen and whether the US dollar index weakens simultaneously. Declaring a US dollar cycle reversal based on just one day’s midpoint is still too early.Sir A has finally stopped😬 The trader who made high-leverage long positions on $BTC and $ETH and lost tens of millions in a week has cut losses and exited
Address 0x30a…6393e holds BTC long positions worth 110 million USD, with only $184 liquidation margin at the market bottom in the early morning. Fortunately, a rebound saved him from disaster. Four hours ago, he closed 1,821.84 BTC positions with a loss of 3.26 million USD, plus 1.08 million USD loss on ETH, totaling 4.34 million USD loss this round
Currently, he has opened 45.93 million USD long positions in US stocks, including $TSLA / $DRAM / $SOXL, really can't stay idle...
Portal 👉 0x30afce2f6842bf183c7e3fe7162e279ff0b6393eTrump stated that if the Republican Party wins both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the November midterm elections, every adult American citizen could receive $5,000.
On November 3, 2026, the United States will hold midterm elections:
1. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives
2. 35 seats in the Senate
3. Governors, state legislators, and local officials in multiple states
The House of Representatives is elected by district, with 218 seats constituting a majority; the Senate is elected by state, and if there is a 50-50 split, the Vice President can cast the deciding vote.
The reason the U.S. has midterm elections is because the President’s term is 4 years, House members serve 2 years, and Senators serve 6 years with about one-third up for election every two years. This staggered election system is intentional, allowing voters to readjust congressional power between two presidential elections.
Congress holds legislative, budgetary, personnel review, and administrative investigation powers. If the Republicans hold both chambers, Trump would have more room to push tax, immigration, energy, tariff, and cash distribution plans; if the Democrats take the House, the White House will face stronger budget negotiation and oversight pressure; if the Senate also changes hands, key appointments and legislative negotiations will be affected.
The President’s party often loses the House in midterm elections. From 1934 to 2022, in 23 midterm elections, the President’s party lost House seats 20 times, mainly due to governing costs, declining voter turnout, and opposition mobilization.
Therefore, the $5,000 promise is most likely just an empty check. Foldable screen pre-orders are booked until January next year, $AAPL rose 0.43% alone on Friday, I’m not chasing the hype.
Here’s what I saw: iPhone Duo opened pre-orders last Friday, the official website delivery dates quickly pushed back from 10/23, some orders are scheduled as late as late January next year; Apple calls the demand "extraordinary," starting price about $1,999.
On the same day, US tech stocks generally fell, among the seven giants only Apple closed up, closing at $343.46 (+0.43%), intraday low $340.46; Nasdaq fell 2.15% on Friday, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for eight consecutive days.
My view: Hot pre-orders ≠ immediate profit realization; longer delivery times may also be due to production bottlenecks, not just a demand myth.
Tech stocks are still cutting valuations, Apple’s counter-trend rise looks more like a safe haven narrative, not a reckless surge signal.
What I’m doing: Standing firm to observe, not chasing Monday’s rebound; if it breaks below Friday’s low of $340.46, this round of foldable screen narrative should be considered invalid first.
Wait for real delivery and user feedback after the 10/23 launch, then decide whether to change stance.
What do you think, will $AAPL first digest the pre-order heat on Monday, or continue to be the safe haven among tech stocks?
$AAPL $QQQ $NVDA
#苹果折叠屏iPhone Duo预购火爆 #费城半导体指数八连跌#纳指100周跌5.5%，芯片股八连跌 550% unrealized profit, finally only 73% left
No recovery over the weekend, $ETH kept sliding down.
How this number is calculated:
550% is the paper profit at the highest point.
If you don't sell, it's just a number.
When it drops, the numerator shrinks, the denominator stays the same.
The trigger moment:
Leveraged long positions, price breaks the line, system automatically sells.
Sell orders push the price down, the next batch gets sold too.
That's how the profit disappears.
Paper profits are never your money.
Only when you sell does it count.
#德银拟托管BTC与ETH，数字资产业务提速
#$ETH #TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins 1/5 $TSLA third quarter deliveries +1.4% quarter over quarter look good. This is not a thread. The story is mixed: United States (our estimate) -9.2% quarter over quarter, China +17.8% quarter over quarter. $TSLA traded its most profitable cars for less profitable ones in Q3 2026 (this is bad).Today's core judgment: What is worth noting today is the change in stablecoin competition: the industry is shifting from competing over issuance scale and payment networks to how reserve yields are distributed. Circle recently disclosed the income distribution structure of USDC, reflecting that stablecoin issuers are beginning to compete for exchanges and payment channels through revenue sharing. My judgment is: In the short term, institutional funds remain weak; in the long term, more attention needs to be paid to stablecoin payments and channel revenue sharing. For OKB, the business implementation of Exchange OS and OKB's value capture still need to be evaluated separately. 1. ETF funds: Three asset classes have seen synchronized outflows for the second consecutive week. The latest effective trading day is still October 16: * BTC: net outflow of $82.4 million; * ETH: net outflow of $69.7 million; * SOL: net outflow of $12.7 million. This week, the combined net outflow of the three ETFs was about $574 million, marking the second consecutive week of synchronized outflows. Among them, SOL has had net outflows for ten consecutive trading days, indicating short-term allocation is still contracting. Currently, there is no evidence that institutional risk appetite has recovered. The next verification point is the fund data after the U.S. market closes on October 19. 2. Stablecoin supply stagnates, but payment volume grows 45% Allium (an on-chain data analysis platform) Q3 data shows that the total stablecoin supply is about $305 billion, growing only 0.4% year-to-date; meanwhile, payment volume reached $482 billion, a 45% year-over-year increase, and payment transactions increased by 71%. This indicates that sta【 HODLing coins is easy, leverage is hard to bear 】
Strive CEO Matt Cole declared "permanently long on $BTC, short on the US dollar." Recently, the company spent $235 million to buy 2,822 BTC, increasing its holdings to about 35,600 BTC. However, the average purchase price of this new batch is around $83,266, and with BTC fluctuating near $82,000, they have to endure the drawdown right after buying.
Cole emphasizes the core concept of "amplifying the ratio": Strive aims to use financing structures to grow the company's BTC exposure faster than its equity. When the market rises, profits may be amplified; when it falls, financing costs, dividend obligations, and asset depreciation still come into play.
I agree with the logic of holding BTC long-term, but you can't equate company stock directly with BTC. Buying coins is a bet on Bitcoin's price going up; buying Strive also bets on its ability to keep financing and withstand drawdowns. If BTC enters a sustained bull market, this strategy might outperform; if the market remains sluggish for a long time, the so-called profit-amplifying machine might first amplify pressure on shareholders.A piece of news this morning that few people shared, but carries significant weight: an official from the Reserve Bank of Australia said there is reasonable evidence that the neutral interest rate domestically and internationally is rising. In plain terms, the benchmark for "how expensive money should be" is generally moving upward. Don't think this is just an Australian issue; this is the collective stance of central banks worldwide: it's not a temporary rate hike, but a long-term elevation of the interest rate baseline. Assets like $BTC, which have zero interest and are priced purely based on risk appetite, benefit most from a low interest rate environment. When risk-free returns worldwide are systemically rising, holding non-yielding assets while telling a ten-year story means the opportunity cost grows day by day. Those focused on whether the Fed will hike rates in October might be missing the bigger picture. Do you think this round of high interest rates is cyclical or the new normal? ETF is selling, but BTC is rising: Who exactly is absorbing this sell-off?
The US stock market hasn't opened yet, and the latest complete ETF data stops at Friday. On that day, the US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of $82.4 million; over the last five trading days, the net outflow totaled $228.4 million, which is indeed a net sell-off and not a small amount. But looking at OKX at the same time, at 9:33 Beijing time today, BTC is priced at $82,459, up about 0.98% in 24 hours, still near the upper range of the 24-hour interval.
These two sets of data are not contradictory: ETF is just one capital channel and does not represent the entire market selling. The price can still be pushed up during ETF outflows, indicating that other buy and sell orders are temporarily absorbing the selling pressure; but based on price alone, we cannot determine who is buying, nor can we directly claim "institutions are back."
I do not consider this a confirmed reversal yet. Watch if $82,539 can hold above, and $80,681 below; breaking above the upper range would indicate continued absorption, while falling back to the lower range means reassessing the weight of this outflow. Do you think this sell-off is being absorbed, or is it just waiting for the next wave of selling pressure?
$BTC #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Data exceeded expectations on both fronts, yet BTC has climbed back above 82,000, while gold remains unmoved. Don't rush to call it a sell-off; this looks more like the market openly betting that the Fed won't act rashly in October. 🤔
$BTC: With PPI so strong, according to the old script BTC should have crashed, but buying pressure stubbornly pulled it back above 82,000. The market is "immune" to inflation data now; the logic is: the hotter the data, the more the Fed fears hurting the economy, and the 15% chance of a rate hike in October is proof. 🔥
$ETH: Following the rebound but still playing a supporting role. ETFs continue to bleed, institutions are retreating and cutting it first. After leverage falls, there might be some short covering, but it will be a short-lived rebound; without real money propping it up, when BTC dips, ETH falls faster. ⚠️
$XAUT: Gold's lack of movement is the real warning sign. With high inflation and geopolitical risks, gold prices are flat, indicating tight dollar liquidity and that funds might be covering other margins. BTC buying is driven by retail sentiment, gold buying is central bank allocation; gold sideways = real safe-haven funds are still watching. 👀
This round is a bet on policy, not a fundamental improvement. Don't chase longs above 82,000, and don't blindly try to top out. Wait for the Fed to reveal its hand. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #AI or push GDP to 44 trillion, can investments break even?
Whether investments can break even depends on the position in the industrial chain: the infrastructure layer is under pressure, while the application and tool layers have more solid evidence.
Break-even account: infrastructure under pressure, application layer delivers
Gartner estimates: by 2030, AI data center owners need to cumulatively generate $8.5 trillion in revenue to cover capital expenditures, financing costs, and achieve a 12% ROIC; attributable AI revenue during the same period is expected to be no more than $3.6 trillion, leaving a gap of more than half.
The application and tool layers have more concrete break-even. AWS states AI server costs can be recovered in less than three years, with nearly $500 billion in backlog orders.
Enterprise side: Google reports 74% of enterprises break even on at least one AI project in the first year, with "heavy investment" enterprises achieving an 88% return rate; Nucleus Research gives an average break-even cycle of 11 months and a 427% ROI over three years; Nutanix expects a $20 million internal AI cluster to break even within one year.
Core contradiction: mismatch between capital concentration and dispersed returns
The economic account of AI investment is not unbalanced, but the accounting cycle is extended, with the extension mainly borne by infrastructure holders. When asset depreciation outpaces revenue realization, the gap between accounting break-even and cash break-even will surface before the question of "whether AI creates value."
What is truly worrisome is the mismatch period between the speed of value creation and the speed of capital sinking, which may exceed the tolerance of some participants. $BTC $ZEC $ETH SOL is getting a major upgrade the day after tomorrow. Have you considered getting in?
On Wednesday, Alpenglow will launch on the mainnet, reducing the final transaction confirmation time from about 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds.
SOL is currently around $104.6, up only about 1% in the last 24 hours.
At the same time, BTC's market dominance has surged to about 60.8%, a 14-month high, draining altcoins.
An objective breakdown:
The positive news is real, but since the upgrade doesn't change fees or the execution layer, it’s hard for it to directly translate into buying pressure in the short term.
Post-upgrade, votes will no longer be on-chain, so the on-chain transaction count will "appear" to drop significantly—don’t be alarmed by this number.
Funds are still flowing into BTC, and the probability of a "sell-off after the good news is priced in" is not low.
This is a big deal technically, not necessarily price-wise.
It needs to hold above $110 to have buyers; if it falls below $100, this observation becomes invalid.
Deduct 1 point if it "pumps on the upgrade day," deduct 2 points if it "sells off after the good news is fully priced in."
$SOL $BTC $ETH
#德银拟托管BTC与ETH，数字资产业务提速 Tesla's Q3 earnings report will be released after the market closes on Wednesday.
Deliveries are expected to exceed forecasts by 5%, and revenue will most likely beat estimates. However, EPS will likely miss: deliveries of high-priced models have plummeted 48% year-over-year, Q2 automotive gross margin has dropped from 19.2% to 16.3%, and free cash flow is negative 1.1 billion. The stock price has fallen after the last three earnings reports.
Options are betting on 7.4% volatility. My bet: revenue beats, EPS misses, stock price falls—unless Musk drops a bombshell about Robotaxi or a SpaceX merger during the call, a narrative that can overshadow profits.
#okxProphetSeason3 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 10.19 Monday Morning Market Overview: BTC Long Positions Gained 1800 Points
BTC closed this morning with a long lower shadow and a bullish real body, forming a bullish engulfing pattern with yesterday's bearish candle; the weekly candle closed bearish with upper and lower shadows, two consecutive bearish weeks.
Over the weekend, the emphasis was on BTC breaking through and stabilizing above 8.17 to go long, or setting up long positions at the bottom support of 8.07; this morning, long positions automatically entered and took profit at T1, with T2 also closed shortly after, long positions profited 1800 points and exited, the short order set at 8.27 was canceled.
After BTC retested the box bottom support at 8.07, it immediately rebounded, with four consecutive large bullish candles directly touching the box top resistance near 8.27; long positions closed and short positions opened at 8.27, where heavy resistance and selling pressure exist.
If BTC breaks decisively above 8.27, the range will shift from the 8.07-8.27 consolidation zone to a narrow 8.27-8.41 consolidation zone; otherwise, after touching resistance or a wick spike, it will return to the lower consolidation zone.
The daily close formed a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating bullish signs for the day; remaining long positions should keep a trailing stop near 8.38 to protect capital; watch for a break above 8.27 followed by a drop below support to short with a stop at 8.38 and targets near 8.27 and 8.07.
If breaking above 8.27, set up a short position at 8.41 with a stop at 8.52 and targets near 8.3 and 8.19.
$BTC What’s most feared on weekends isn’t the lack of market movement, but the sudden return of volume when you haven’t yet figured out how to handle it ✨ This deep V in ETH — is it a shakeout or a bearish continuation? Let’s set the tone first: we’re in a game of strategy now, not a phase to chase the rally. Early Saturday morning, ETH dipped to 2315; at that time most people were resting, liquidity was thinnest, and a single wick could trigger many stop losses. But the key is it recovered, climbing back near 2400, indicating support at that level — the force to hold it up is stronger than the force to push it down. The short-term momentum to crash further isn’t enough, that’s a fact. But I’m hesitant to treat “no big drop” as a safety net. Why? Because the signals from the South Korean stock market are more worth watching. The main index has dropped 60%, with some comparing it to 2008 when it fell over 80% in a week. More troubling is Monday’s open — there are over $50 million in buy orders stacked around $10 on KORU; if that level doesn’t hold at open, it could trigger a new wave of selling. This isn’t an internal crypto issue, it’s external risk appetite being repriced. Looking at the US stock market from another angle: the tech sector took another 5% hit this morning, and unlike before, it didn’t bounce back decently. This “fall without recovery” pattern is more alarming than a single-day drop. The transmission path to crypto is clear: risk budgets shrink, leverage withdraws first, altcoins follow the drop, BTC and ETH resist the fall relatively but struggle to strengthen independently. The weekend’s volume surge, I’m more inclined to interpret as panic selling clashing with bargain hunting, rather than new capitalThe risk of quantum computing breaking Bitcoin's elliptic curve encryption is not yet fully priced into the market. There have been substantial advances in the past two years, but a true solution is still some way off. Five technical approaches: 1. BIP-360: Upgrade address structure Introduce P2MR, remove Taproot's long-term exposed public key Key Path. It has entered the coding and testing phase but cannot independently achieve complete quantum resistance. 2. Post-quantum signatures: Replace ECDSA / Schnorr Research on ML-DSA, SLH-DSA, SHRINCS, etc. Some have reference implementations and security proofs; the challenge is larger signatures, which may increase fees and block load. 3. BIP-361: Old coin migration plan The proposal phases out old signatures: about 3 years after activation, new funds are prohibited from being sent to vulnerable addresses; about 2 years later, spending with old signatures is restricted. Not yet activated. 4. Attack warning and automatic defense Pieter Wuille and others proposed mechanisms like Tripwire to close old signature paths once elliptic curves are actually broken. Still in research and discussion. 5. Old BTC rescue and Lightning Network upgrade Exploring zk-STARK ownership proofs, Commit/Reveal rescue, and remodeling Lightning Network with ML-KEM, ML-DSA. Some experimental prototypes exist; mainnet deployment is still distant. Three major issues: · No quantum resistance at all yet 📊 The trend structure of $USDT .D is increasingly resembling the first quarter of 2023.
If history repeats itself, the next three stages might be:
1️⃣ A rapid short-term drop in $BTC and altcoins
2️⃣ Followed by a rebound, refreshing the stage highs
3️⃣ Then entering 3-4 months of correction and consolidation
If this scenario holds, the real large-scale bull market might not start until the end of Q2 2027.
But note, an increase in USDT.D (USDT market cap dominance) usually means funds are favoring stablecoins more, while a decrease may reflect a rise in risk appetite; this does not necessarily mean the market will replicate history.
For $BTC next, do you expect a drop before a rise, or a direct start of a bull market? ☀️Roadster Market｜What’s being speculated is imagination, not profit🔥
$BTC $ETH
The current phase of Roadster is defined as: not driven by performance, but catalyzed by sentiment and narrative. Before the market opened, TSLA surged as much as 5%, A-share flying cars and low-altitude economy followed suit. What the market is actually buying is the sci-fi vibe of “Tesla × SpaceX,” not next year’s profits.
In the mid-term view, Roadster won’t enter mass production until 2028, and the Rocket version isn’t road-legal yet, making its revenue more like a “halo car.” Its real value lies in boosting valuation: reinforcing the imagination of autonomous driving, robotics, and $SPCX synergy once again. But car gross margin, free cash flow, and Q3 financial report are the real foundation.
In short: short-term speculation is on “flying,” mid-term focus is on “profitability,” don’t mistake stunts for financial reports.Cardano: Stablecoin growth but $ADA still needs to be evaluated separately!
The ecosystem gaining more liquidity does not necessarily mean the native token will immediately increase in price!
The total amount of stablecoins on Cardano reached about 70.2 million USD, up 31.1% in 30 days. USDC accounts for about 44.54 million USD, equivalent to 63.5% of the total stablecoins recorded. This is a notable sign for liquidity sources serving trading and DeFi. However, the amount of stablecoins held does not mean all the money is being actively used Today's slow rise should not be mistaken for a bull market recovery. Essentially, after CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, the bears no longer dare to push prices down, resulting in a vacuum rebound caused purely by the exhaustion of selling pressure. The market has fully priced in the expectation of no rate hike in October, but this is precisely the most fragile scenario.
First, let's talk about $BTC. It is slowly pushing upward today, but the volume hasn't picked up at all. The bulls haven't really exerted force; it's just that the short sellers from earlier are closing their positions and covering. The resistance between 82,000 and 84,000 is full of trapped positions. Without real large capital entering, this slow rise can be wiped out anytime by a US stock market pullback or any minor disturbance.
Next, look at $ETH. Ethereum remains the weakest follower, barely turning green as the market slowly rises. ETF funds are continuously flowing out, and institutions are not buying in at all. Its current stability relies entirely on $BTC's support. Once $BTC pulls back, Ethereum will definitely be the fastest to fall. Without any independent narrative support, the rebound is just a chance to exit.
Finally, look at $XAUT, gold. Gold's slow rise today is the real strength. It doesn't rely on crypto leverage; it's purely driven by safe-haven funds and central bank allocations quietly accumulating at the bottom. $BTC's slow rise is the bears disarming, while gold's slow rise is the buyers underpinning the market. The difference in substance between the two is vast.
Mistaking the exhaustion of selling pressure for a trend reversal is the most fatal mistake retail investors easily make. Without incremental funds, $BTC and $ETH are just treading water. Once this vacuum period passes, the market will naturally reveal its true face. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Those who shorted last night were carried away this morning.
In the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the network reached 288 million, with longs accounting for 186 million, or 64.8%. 93,000 people were liquidated, the vast majority being bulls who tried to catch the bottom halfway up the slope. But if you only see this, the morning's counterattack definitely doesn't concern you.
In the last hour, short liquidations hit 22.07 million, making up 98%. Over 4 hours, short liquidations totaled 55.11 million, exactly three times that of longs. The earlier drop ground the bulls into the dirt, but when the rebound came, those who chased shorts didn’t even have time to react. The pace is extremely fast; the ones getting hit have changed, but their attitude remains the same: defiant.
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$ETH: The bloodiest thing isn’t the data, it’s that one on-chain position.
24-hour liquidations reached 74.95 million, surpassing $BTC, making it the most intense leveraged battle in the market. But what really sent chills down my spine was this: a certain address shorted 13,830 $ETH at 2366 last night at 11 PM, a position worth 32.72 million USD. By 7:30 AM this morning, $ETH bounced to 2409, forcing liquidation of 2,765 coins, instantly vaporizing 6.66 million USD. The remaining 11,061 short coins have a liquidation price of 2419, just 9 dollars away from the current price.
Just 9 dollars. A tiny rebound spike could wipe out a 30-million-level short position. $ETH’s technicals closed in a narrow range of 2336-2343, volume shrank to 5,212 units, with a sell wall pressing down the price, which barely moved, but leveraged positions have already been silently crushed. On the surface, it’s sideways; underneath, it’s all blood.
$BTC: 80,000 is the last line of defense, but it’s being tugged repeatedly.
24-hour liquidations totaled 64.6 million, longs at 50.8%, almost a tie between bulls and bears, no clear winner. Price is holding near 81,000, with 80,000 being the core support repeatedly tested over the past week. But support isn’t free: US September CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, the probability of the October FOMC holding steady is marginally weakening, and open interest in options is heavily concentrated near the 80,000 strike price. If 80,000 breaks, the next support isn’t 78,000 but 75,000, and the correction space will open visibly fast.
More striking is on-chain: someone on Hyperliquid holds a 40x long position of 1,205 $BTC, nominal value 97.87 million, entry price 81,913, liquidation price 79,828. The current price is only 1.59% above the liquidation line, usable margin is zero, lost 9.77 million in 7 days, win rate 16.67%. This person isn’t unaware of the risk, they’re just betting they won’t be the last one.
$ZEC: Bulls got hit hardest in 24 hours, but shorts also got bitten this morning.
24-hour long liquidations reached 9.75 million, accounting for 76.2%, bulls were indeed pressed all day. But in the last hour, short liquidations were 637,700, while longs only 2,326 USD; the short side is now taking the short-term hits. $ZEC fell from the September highs of 1650-1700 to around 1165, losing 30% in a month, ETF net outflows continue, daily RSI is in a neutral to weak 45-55 range, MACD is flat or even crossing down. The 1070-1090 range is critical to watch next; breaking below 1000 is a real risk.
Interestingly, despite a pullback over 24%, a trader opened a 10x leveraged long position of 10,000 $ZEC, becoming a top 4 long holder. The co-founder is calling for a 2000-dollar target; whether the market believes it is another matter, but someone is betting real money on this level. The bulls are more wounded overall, but that doesn’t mean chasing shorts now is safe. $ZEC’s volatility never plays by the rules.
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Finally, a signal most people overlook: the Fear & Greed Index jumped from 53 to 59 today, officially entering a “greed” state. Liquidation data is painful, but sentiment is warming. The simultaneous appearance of these two means the market isn’t collapsing, it’s rotating — bull corpses are being carried away, short margins are being eaten, and survivors are betting again in greed.
I’m cautious now but not overly bearish. Heavy 24-hour bull damage doesn’t mean chasing shorts now is a winning game. The most expensive three words have always been "defiant."
What direction are your current positions? Drop a comment and let’s see who’s getting hit today.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Tesla's Q3 deliveries exceeded expectations, but the market's focus has quickly shifted to profit recovery. Deliveries are the "past tense," while profitability and cash flow are the "future tense" that determine stock price direction.
🚗 Deliveries beat expectations, but quality is questionable
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles globally in Q3, surpassing Wall Street's consensus estimate of about 461,000. However, there are concerns behind this "beat":
· Year-over-year contraction: Deliveries fell 2.1% from a record 497,099 vehicles in the same period last year, when U.S. buyers rushed to purchase before the federal tax credit expired.
· Reliance on inventory drawdown: Deliveries this quarter exceeded production by about 22,141 vehicles, marking the second consecutive quarter of inventory consumption. These sales may have involved discounts, putting pressure on gross margins.
· Deterioration in model mix: Model 3/Y accounted for 98% of total deliveries, while deliveries of "other models" like Cybertruck and Semi plunged about 48% to only 8,295 units.#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 October 19 PENGU Observation: If toys sell well, can token holders get money?
This morning, PENGU had about 4.36 million USDT in rolling 24-hour spot trading volume on Binance. When Pudgy Penguins are discussed again, it’s easy to mistake the toys on the shelves, a certain NFT, and the tokens on the exchange as the same equity.
They do share the brand, but the rights need to be examined layer by layer. Binance’s project information for December 2024 lists PENGU as an SPL token on Solana; this describes the token’s technical carrier, not a company equity share or a toy sales dividend certificate.
The official Pudgy Penguins authorization introduction is more specific: NFT holders have the opportunity to authorize their characters to the company for use in products and content, with specific terms depending on each agreement. The official submission page requires submitting the penguin NFT number and reserves the right to select or not.
For a character to enter the toy series, it must first be confirmed which NFT it corresponds to, who signed the contract, and what was agreed upon. You cannot infer from the authorization arrangement for a specific character that all PENGU holders will receive the same income.
Brand exposure can generate discussion but does not automatically establish a contractual relationship between the token and operating income. Under current information, sales, licensing fees, and token price remain three different observation targets; popularity fluctuations may also be faster than business progress.
$PENGU #PENGU
For informational purposes only, not investment advice.#美国暂缓对俄制裁，柴油供应预期生变
[Trump wants to cool down oil prices, but is Ukraine setting refineries on fire?]
Trump just eased energy restrictions on Russia, and the market immediately pushed oil prices down: Brent $BZ fell to $108.43, $CL around $100.88. But don’t rush to celebrate yet; cheap diesel hasn’t truly reached the market.
The International Energy Agency’s data is even more striking: global diesel exports in September dropped by about 700,000 barrels/day year-on-year, with combined losses from Russia and the Middle East around 1.3 million barrels/day. The US allowing some Russian diesel transactions can indeed fill part of the gap, but Russian refinery capacity is damaged, and Ukraine’s ongoing attacks on energy facilities mean that the paper supply permits don’t equal tankers having docked. The IEA even expects diesel market tightness to continue until 2027.
What I’m watching isn’t the daily oil price drop by a few points, but whether diesel deliveries can sustain. If energy prices don’t come down, inflation won’t ease, the Federal Reserve’s rate cut space will be squeezed, and the crypto market will find it even harder to rebound on liquidity. Conversely, if actual deliveries increase and freight costs fall, oil prices will have a chance to cool further. Right now, what’s being traded is the expectation of supply improvement; we’re still a tanker of diesel away from truly lifting the alarm.This week's BTC rebound couldn't hold. The core issue is just one: the number of buyers hasn't increased.
Throughout the week, the active buying amount of $BTC was 3.1% less than last week, and active selling was also down by 3.6%, but selling still exceeded buying by $520 million. Trading volume is still shrinking, sellers dominate, and the market lacks the funds to sustain an upward push.
There was indeed buying during the midweek rebound. On the 13th, active buying increased by 20% compared to the previous day, selling increased by 10%, and buying once surpassed selling. But the next day, buying only rose by 1.6%, while selling jumped 18%. As soon as buyers gained the upper hand, sellers quickly increased their volume, and the rebound was cut off.
ETH's active buying basically didn't change this week, active selling decreased by 4.2%, and the rebound relied entirely on sellers holding back. The 13th was similar, with buying down 6% and selling down 17%.
By the 14th, selling rose 25%, buying only 12%, and $ETH's rebound again met with no support. Looking at on-chain data, realized losses rose from 380 million to 542 million, an increase of 42%, while realized profits actually dropped by 55%. Buying hasn't picked up, losses are being realized more heavily, which is the key signal that ETH can't sustain a rebound yet. My view on the crypto market today
My attitude toward the overall market has gone back and forth:
Initially bullish, then bearish after studying macroeconomics, then after some reflection, bullish again—but this time the “bullish” is not a blind bull market, but a long-term bullish direction with no chasing in the short term.
Let's start with the most macro perspective.
Of course, the US has national debt, wars, and political divisions, but don’t be misled by the narrative of "East rising, West declining":
The US is only slowing down relative to China, but compared to the EU, Japan, and emerging markets, it remains the country most capable of attracting capital.
The dollar, technology, military strength, and depth of capital markets are still top-tier globally.
National debt is a chronic issue, not a trigger; localized wars happen every year and have never been the main driver of asset pricing.
So talk like "America is finished" can stir emotions but will cause big losses if used for position sizing.
Back to the pullback in October.
On the surface, it looks like a retreat in Fed rate hike expectations, policy tightening, big companies selling ETFs, and net capital outflows;
But look at the market:
No crash where there should be one, no panic where there should be panic, broad indices have support, crypto hasn’t collapsed, just sideways movement.
Sideways itself is a form of strong support.
The pullback in tech stocks, semiconductors, and AI chains is not "the industry is over," but a repricing of long-duration assets under a high interest rate environment—money is moving from "storytelling" to "cash flow," that’s all.
So my conclusion is:
Hold your core positions, avoid high leverage.
Believe in the bullish framework but respect short-term interest rates.
$BTC $ETH
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Galaxy Research analyzes why Bitcoin weakened in October: Weak corporate treasury buying combined with ETF outflows are the main reasons
Galaxy Research points out that the core reason for BTC's weakness in October is not simply a sentiment-driven sell-off, but the simultaneous shutdown of two major institutional buying engines.
On one side, corporate treasury accumulation has significantly slowed, with companies like MSTR no longer making large continuous purchases; on the other side, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted from inflows to net outflows, leading to a decline in institutional allocation demand.
With both major supports weakening simultaneously, there is insufficient capital to absorb the selling pressure from long-term holders, naturally putting downward pressure on the price.
My view: The seasonal "October rally" has failed, fundamentally due to a gap in institutional funds. Without continuous incremental inflows, the weak and volatile pattern is difficult to quickly reverse.
Before a volume breakout occurs, avoid aggressive chasing of longs; prioritize light testing based on key supports with strict stop-losses.Third day after the breakup, my best friend said it will all pass, and you believed it. Then at 2 a.m., you were still scrolling through his Moments. Last Friday, chip stocks were in this state. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for 8 consecutive days, the longest since 2008. The Nasdaq dropped 2.1% in a single day and 4.48% over the week. CoreWeave plunged 11.9% in one day. Jensen Huang said to Bloomberg in Berlin, "All of this is going to pass." Everyone understands the principle, but your hand still opens the market app. My observation is this: right now, the emotional bottom and the fundamental bottom are clashing. On the fundamentals side, Dell's CEO said the memory shortage is a 4-year problem because building factories takes 4 years. The storage cycle doesn't turn around easily. On the emotional side, the VIX reached 19.99, the highest since late July. The Fed just finished raising rates in September, and expectations for a December hike remain. The ceiling over risk assets hasn't moved. This morning's market: BTC 81682, ETH 2390, both very calm. The crypto world these days feels more like a bystander. All data above is from this morning. So my attitude is simple: emotions will pass, but you need to plan your positions in advance. Don't wait until someone says "it will all pass" to start thinking. You can listen to what your ex says, but you have to write your own stop-loss line. No calls to bottom-fish, no calls to flee. Peace. Are you someone who has already unfollowed your ex, or are you still scrolling through their Moments at midnight? #JensenHuang #ChipStocks #BTC #USStockMarket #Macro #Trading $LAB 4-hour chart
Current price 0.04083
Resistance: 0.05246
SuperTrend trendline 0.04771
On the 4-hour chart, after a sharp rise, the price quickly fell back. The high was 0.06428, followed by a downtrend, with a low of 0.03756. Now it is testing lower again, with a 24-hour decline of 5.89%, showing strong bearish momentum.
Current price is 0.04083, the first resistance level above is the 0.04771 trendline, with stronger resistance at 0.05246.
For the market to reverse the downtrend, it must hold above 0.04771 and then break through the 0.05246 resistance to open up rebound potential.
Currently, it is in a downward consolidation phase. The previous low at 0.03756 is a key support level. If this low is broken, a new round of decline will open up directly.
News: The DeFi sector is rotating and diverging; some tokens are rebounding but LAB continues to see capital outflows, with a large decline over the long term. Bulls are currently unable to support, indicating a weak market. In the short term, priority should be given to observing whether the previous low support holds. Do not bottom-fish on a breakdown; shorting opportunities near resistance levels are more advantageous. $BTC $ETH
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Continuing to track $BTC's upcoming trend, where is our target for the pullback???
BTC's recent rebound broke the previous weekly high of 82800. Personally, I believe breaking such a key level marks the early stage of a bull market, but a breakout doesn't mean you can blindly chase the rally.
I previously mentioned that the 87000–90000 range is a pressure zone to be cautious about. Afterwards, BTC formed a daily double top and broke below the neckline, indicating short-term weakness. Next, we need to watch for a daily-level correction, then a retest of our weekly-level support.
Structurally, as long as this pullback doesn't break below the previous low of 57800, the long-term bull market logic remains intact. Currently, I am mainly focusing on two support zones: 75000–80000 as the first support zone, and 65000–67000 as the second support zone.
Personally, I think a retest of the first support zone is more likely; whether the second support zone will be reached still needs to be observed based on subsequent price action.
As for the correction pattern, it could be a repeated zigzag decline or a sideways consolidation. Right now, these are just projections; the final path depends on the market's actual performance.
Trading doesn't require predicting every step in advance; it's more important to set key levels and wait for the market to validate your judgment. Breakouts can be bullish signals, but pullback risks cannot be ignored; being optimistic about the long-term trend doesn't mean every short-term price is worth buying.
#机构资金持续流出，BTC能否企稳？ Betting tax. Crypto.com's exchange, North American Derivatives Exchange, filed a lawsuit in the Western District Federal Court of Missouri, claiming that the Commodity Exchange Act grants exclusive jurisdiction to the CFTC and takes precedence over state gambling laws. The complaint also states that the Attorney General's letter was mistakenly sent to Foris DAX, Inc., and that the state constitution only allows the issuance of two mobile sports betting licenses, with no licenses currently available. Novig, through its exchange operator Ludlow Exchange LLC, filed a lawsuit in the Eastern District Court seeking preliminary and permanent injunctions to maintain the status quo during the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals' review of the Kalshi Iowa-related case. Among the six companies that received cease and desist orders, four, including Kalshi and Polymarket, have not yet followed up with lawsuits. Is the market willing, and to what extent, to temporarily set aside the metrics of profitability and free cash flow, and instead price SpaceX using a hybrid framework of "compute infrastructure leasing + satellite broadband operator + launch service provider"? If willing, UBS's $210 target price and Morgan Stanley's $300 target price have narrative support; if not, the 107x price-to-sales ratio will once again become a strongly attractive anchor point, as demonstrated by the more than 7% drop in after-hours trading following the Q2 earnings report.
Do you believe SpaceX can use AI compute leasing to sustain its valuation narrative until the day Starship commercialization is realized, or do you think the pace of capital expenditure consumption will outpace narrative fulfillment, forcing the market to undergo a harsher repricing in advance? #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 ETF net inflows for two consecutive trading days were $16.2 million and $16.3 million respectively. Has the capital really returned? Don't rush— the total for the two days is only $32.6 million. First, the news. Three figures on the capital side: the latest single-day net inflow is $16.3 million, the previous day $16.2 million (positive for two consecutive days), 5-day cumulative net outflow of $324.1 million, 10-day cumulative net outflow of $723.3 million. On the price side, BTC is quoted at $81,696, +0.43% in 24 hours, -2.63% in the past week, with a 20-day range of 79,775.1 to 87,238.3; on the sentiment side, the Fear & Greed Index slightly fell from 55 to 53; on the macro side, the US Dollar Index is 101.84 (-0.16%), gold at 4,181.1 (+0.26%), S&P 500 at 7,659.44 (-1.09%, using the previous trading day's close over the weekend). Looking again at the capital impact. $32.6 million is very small relative to the ETF scale— the 5-day net outflow is $324.1 million, so the two days' inflows only amount to one-tenth of the outflows. Therefore, this looks more like a "stop in outflows" signal rather than the start of "capital returning." Capital turning points usually require three layers of confirmation: single-day consecutive positivity (already met for two days), 5-day positivity (not met), 10-day narrowing (not met). Currently, only the first layer is completed. Implications for BTC: the value of this signal lies in the direction— shifting from continuous outflows to slight inflows indicates that the phase of most concentrated selling pressure may be over.Monday, October 19, 2026. The Nasdaq night session rebound (+0.84%) mainly reflects a short-term technical oversold correction and capital return amid earnings season after last Friday's sharp drop. However, the core suppressive chain of macro fundamentals—"high oil prices + high interest rates + geopolitical risks"—has not been lifted, and the market's rebound momentum this week will face the most rigorous test.
This Week's (October 19–23) Preview and Key Highlights
This week is the most critical "earnings test and macro data examination week" of the month, focusing on three dimensions:
Tech Giants' Q3 Earnings Kick Off (Core Focus on ROI)
Leading companies such as Tesla, Netflix, and IBM will release earnings first this week, marking the start of the tech giants' disclosure season.
Bitcoin (BTC) Subsequent Trend Analysis
Defensive Camp (Independent Bottoming): The long-term capital accumulation from spot ETFs and Bitcoin's decentralized inflation-resistant attributes give BTC stronger chip resilience at the current level compared to Nasdaq.
Risk Prevention (Catch-up Decline Risks): If the Nasdaq night session rebound experiences a "bad news realization/earnings shock" crash after earnings disclosures, institutions may liquidate BTC and other liquid assets to meet margin calls, causing a catch-up decline.
The night session rebound offers short-term relief, but under the tightening backdrop of "crude oil breaking $100 + 10-year US Treasury yields breaking 5%", close attention must be paid this week to whether tech giants' earnings can withstand the high discount rate test. It is recommended to maintain ample cash flow. Wait for signals! $BTC is repeatedly tugging around 80k, and most traders actually have a clear understanding: this is not a bottom-fishing zone. Whether it's active selling, leverage clearing, or small position probing, rational people won't catch the falling knife here. The original analysis is very straightforward — there will be another drop, with the daily-level extreme adjustment range pointing to 76k to 75k. What is truly worth being cautious about is not the drop itself, but the structural psychological inertia of "once 80k breaks, it will break a second time." $ETH's situation is even more straightforward. The 2300 level is widely seen as a defensive line that will inevitably be broken sooner or later; the original text even used a tone of "no need to say." Behind this is a repeatedly verified pattern: the last Bitcoin rally drained market liquidity, and this round is no different. Funds have not flowed back into altcoins but are instead rotating defensively within mainstream assets, with Ethereum being the most obviously drained. When $BTC's rise no longer drives $ETH to follow, this itself is a signal of weakening market structure, not simply an "opportunity for a catch-up rally." The truly underestimated point is: the market treats the "red line position" as a safety cushion, but the reason the red line is effective is precisely because it has not yet been tested. Once 80k is lost, the probability of a second break is much higher than the first, because stop-loss orders and confidence will simultaneously weaken. The original text's operational discipline is extremely restrained — no entry is allowed before any buying conditions are met. This is not pessimism but a clear pricing of the "cost of catching the falling knife." The confirmation signal is also very clear: if $BTC effectively breaks below 80k and cannot quicklyLast night, the VIX suddenly surged, the US stock market was hit, and risk assets also shrank a bit. But Bitcoin's daily volatility was less than two points, and volume didn't pick up, so the panic didn't really spread in. Such sell-offs on Fridays often drag on until Monday to be digested on their own, and with BTC's performance, I tend to think this is a US stock market issue, not a new shock in crypto. The real pressure is still the fund withdrawals over the past week, not some sudden news.
Bitcoin climbed back from 80,672 to 81,702 overnight, Ethereum bounced back from a low of 2,329 to 2,394, failing to hold 2,400, and HYPE rose from 76.14 to 78.69. Looking at 24 hours, it's tough; stretching to 7 days, the difference emerges: BTC fell about 2.5% but still held up, ETH dropped about 9% showing clear weakness, and HYPE fell about 7%, which is also not easy.
So in the short term, I prefer to focus on whether crypto itself has fund inflows and if trading volume keeps up, rather than the single-day sentiment of the US stock market. Before key levels are firmly held, any rebound should be seen as a weak recovery; if later volume contracts on a pullback and then expands again to reclaim, that would indicate selling pressure is being digested better than expected. Right now, this looks more like a range consolidation under weak capital conditions. The panic in the US stock market is just a peripheral disturbance for now and hasn't become the main driver of crypto pricing.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Advertising is indeed Netflix's biggest current highlight: it can enhance monetization of existing users, lower the threshold for acquiring new users, and bring high-growth incremental revenue; but don't overestimate the short-term pull effect — the scale is too small to immediately reverse the overall revenue growth slowdown.
Netflix's future growth will be driven by both subscriptions (price increases + new members) and advertising, not advertising alone saving growth. If advertising's per-user monetization continues to exceed expectations, the valuation will be re-evaluated; if advertising can only sell inventory at low prices and many old users downgrade, then the value of the advertising business will be discounted.$ZEC dropped from 1,695 to 1,048, so why do I still dare to go long?
First, a disclaimer: I hold a long position with a floating profit of +70%. My gut decides my head, so the following content is biased.
This morning ZEC pulled back to 1,155, and my account was cheering. But I have to pour cold water on myself: this is a rebound, not a reversal.
The daily chart shows a drop from 1,695, with moving averages in a bearish alignment. The current price has just touched the first moving average, and there are still two walls overhead. The difference between a rebound and a reversal is one line: if it stands back above 1,248, I’ll call it a reversal; if it doesn’t, no matter how much it rises, it’s just a rebound.
How to profit from money in a rebound? My strategy: move the stop loss to cost, so no matter how much it swings, I don’t lose; take half off the table above 1,180, because pocketing profits is real profit; let the rest try to reach 1,248—if it hits, it’s a gain; if not, it’s fate.
A rebound in a bear market is like an ex coming back: you can reminisce, but don’t rush to get back together.
Do you think $ZEC can stand back above 1,248 this time? Take a side in the comments.
#OKXMillionPlanner
Risk warning: Personal live trading records and personal opinions do not constitute investment advice. Leverage can wipe out principal, please do not imitate.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus BTC ETH $SOL are replicating the August bull market trend
Currently, BTC is holding at 81,000 as a bottom, ETH is defending 2,400, and SOL is highly volatile, indeed resembling the August pre-launch "narrow range oscillation + wearing down bulls' patience + bears quietly accumulating" chip structure. BTC anchors the 80,000 baseline, ETH bottoms in tandem, and SOL, as a high Beta leader, shows stronger elasticity and usually leads when starting.
But history will not simply repeat. The core driver in August was the liquidity boost from US Treasury bonds, whereas this round faces US CPI and PPI both exceeding expectations, US Treasury yields nearing a 24-year high, uncertainty over rate hikes within the year, and continuous net outflows from spot ETFs (BTC/ETH). The ancient whale at 80,000 only monitored without clear dumping. The pattern is similar, but the drivers differ.
If BTC breaks above 82,800/84,000, it could easily trigger concentrated short liquidations (a positive short squeeze cycle), but under current macro pressure, close attention is needed on spot buying relay and ETF inflows. SOL's independent strength is key to sustained rebound.
Warning: The chart shows BTC perpetual 17x high-leverage longs are extremely risky! Weekend spikes and false breakouts with frequent shakeouts occur, and sideways consolidation consumes capital and is prone to explosion. It is advisable to hold light positions with low leverage (learn to be "thick" not "fierce" as a safety cushion), leaving enough margin for forced liquidation distance. Do not bet on direction; wait for clarity on interest rate decisions and capital flows. $BTC $ETH $ZEC U.S. tech stocks collectively pulled back, and the real test for $ETH is just beginning!
This week, Wall Street's sentiment shifted abruptly, with the Nasdaq plunging 4.5% in a single week, marking its worst performance since June. Investors are starting to reassess the conflict between the AI investment boom and high interest rates.
For ETH, this is not simply a bearish or bullish signal. The decline in U.S. Treasury yields theoretically helps ease valuation pressure on risk assets, but if the stock market downturn further evolves into liquidity tightening, ETH will still struggle to remain unaffected.
The focus now is on two things: first, whether U.S. tech stocks can stop falling; second, how the Federal Reserve will respond to the inflation rebound. If interest rate pressure eases, $ETH could see a recovery rally; if the market continues to price in high rates and economic slowdown, any rebound might just be a pause in a downtrend.
My view: don’t rush to interpret the Treasury rebound as a bull market signal. What ETH truly needs is not just a drop in rates but a return of risk appetite. #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $SNDK took advantage of the low liquidity in the overnight session to suddenly spike this wave, with the highest wick reaching 1330 before being slammed down instantly. It's obvious that the market makers spent little money to pump the price and trick retail investors into entering and taking the bags!
Take a close look at how sinister this long upper shadow is. No matter how fiercely the price surged upward, it didn't even touch the bulls' average cost line at 1351 before turning down directly! This means that the over 38 million U long positions trapped above not only failed to break even but also tricked another batch of chasing retail investors into standing guard!
The real big players are not fooled by this at all. More than 270 short whales firmly hold short positions worth over 120 million U, with an unrealized profit of more than 7.4 million U, remaining completely unmoved!
The overnight pump was purely to give the short-selling main force better room to slam the price down. They directly shorted at this high level, waiting for the market to open and be knocked back to reality! $TSLA only realized it was boosted by the flying Roadster, and that there are so many crypto assets related to Musk: Tesla, which generates stable cash flow; $SPCX, representing the future direction; and $DOGE, which relies purely on hype, with payment narratives developing quite poorly.
If it weren't for the interest rate hikes suppressing AI valuations, Tesla could have risen a lot. The Roadster was just released last Friday, co-branded with SpaceX, and the market is speculating they might merge.
Unfortunately, a PE ratio of 328 is a bit too high, and the AI sector got hit hard. Plus, with the earnings report due on the 21st, the market is mostly cautious, so it dropped 7% last week.
SpaceX is the craziest, with a Beta of 15.29, doubling revenue but still losing 500 million, and a market cap of 1.9 trillion, even bigger than Tesla.
A money-losing company is valued so highly thanks to the Starlink Grok story, but interest rate hikes specifically target these. So SpaceX fell 9% last week.
DOGE is the most honest, zero cash flow, purely relying on Musk's hype. But whales bought 600 million coins against the trend last week, and honestly, I don't know what to make of that 😂😂😂 so the coin price held steady, only dropping 8% last week.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 Oil tanker hits a mine, strait blockade, yet multiple whales added positions overnight totaling 231 million; ETFs withdrew 910 million in two weeks
Early this morning, the Strait of Hormuz had a major incident again: an oil tanker in the south directly hit a mine, exploded, and caught fire. The Revolutionary Guard warned that any ship with navigation turned off will be severely punished. This kind of situation, like throwing mines into a powder keg, directly pushed Brent crude down by 1%, WTI fell below 99, while gold and silver actually rallied, and Bitcoin surged sharply. The inflation burden hasn't been digested yet, and now there's trouble at sea.
The most interesting thing on the market is that retail investors and whales are acting completely opposite. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations exceeded 270 million USD, with bulls accounting for 83%, and many stop-loss orders everywhere. But a mysterious whale stubbornly held on and added 24.66 BTC, bringing total long positions to 231 million USD, with unrealized losses of 4.42 million, still holding firm. On the other side, an ancient whale transferred out 3,000 BTC today, about 320 million USD, sending them to new addresses, dispersing them to exchanges and OTC. One is adding positions against the trend, the other quietly unloading — a battle of titans.
The only sting for the bulls is that ETF funds have been continuously withdrawing, with about 910 million USD outflow in two consecutive weeks, and a total of 615 million outflow in October, severely depleting spot buying power.
In short: Strait mine incident, oil prices jumping up and down, whales holding on while unloading, ETFs continuously pulling the ladder. $BTC fluctuates around 81,000; the 80,000 barrier — whoever reaches out first gets slapped, hands in pockets waiting for FOMC to reveal its cards.The weekend's drop turned into such a mess, yet the bulls are still crazily adding positions. Are they really treating the dog whales like cash cows?
$DOGE is currently priced at 0.0778, with the long-short ratio stubbornly hitting 3.66! Open interest is still rising, indicating that retail investors haven't fled despite the drop and are frantically bottom-fishing. But the daily chart keeps sliding down with no sign of stopping. If the bulls can't hold and it dips below 0.075 even slightly, a chain liquidation will be absolutely brutal.
Looking at $PEPE, currently at 0.000003839, the long-short ratio is also absurdly high at 3.16. Funding rates occasionally turn negative, meaning retail investors are not only trapped but also paying to beg the whales not to dump. The buying power lacks momentum and is solely propped up by faith.
The wildest is $DNA, currently at 0.2615. I just checked the historical funding rate trend and thought it was negative, but after switching to real-time order book, the current funding rate is actually positive at 0.0050%, though the basis is still negative and open interest has surged. This means the bulls are paying the shorts to stubbornly hold! Plus, the long-short ratio data is currently unavailable (highly controlled), so entering this blind box game is just being cannon fodder.
My logic is actually simple: it's all bull traps. Retail investors are extremely crowded, and the whales are washing out positions accordingly. Catching a falling knife at this time is pure money giveaway. My current stance is to hold fire, keep my bullets ready, and wait for these high-leverage chips to be completely washed out and for the market data to return to a healthy structure before considering entering.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Family, I think the US stock market has dropped enough; the Nasdaq has fallen for several consecutive days on the daily chart. It really hasn't dropped much, from 763 down to 717, just about 7 points. We need to see how much it has risen; from 2023 to 2026, it surged wildly, and just a few days ago it broke a historical high. This decline can only be considered a correction.
Currently, we can't determine if this is the start of a downtrend, but whether in terms of the duration of the rise or the magnitude, QQQ has most likely already priced in the positive expectations for AI. Buying at this price has no winning probability, the odds and risk-reward ratio are similar to Bitcoin above 120,000; only those extremely bullish on US stocks and AI would dare to buy.
I'm just waiting to watch the show; there is no asset that only goes up without falling. I also don't agree with some family members who say AI has no bubble. I only believe one thing: Nvidia has risen more than tenfold in recent years, with a market cap close to 6 trillion USD. And yet, they say there is no bubble, while the market discourse is all about blindly dollar-cost averaging into Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. Chinese investors are also starting to pay attention to US stocks.
These are not good signs; I will wait patiently. Since I cleared my Bitcoin holdings in July or August last year, I have waited for more than a year and don't mind waiting another year or two.There is a new variable in crude oil again, don't just focus on the K-line ups and downs.
The US has temporarily delayed sanctions on Russia and signaled an increase in diesel supply. The market originally expected energy prices to cool down. But Russia's actual production capacity is limited, Middle East transportation risks remain, and supply pressure is not so easy to resolve.
Latest reference prices: $BZ Brent crude about $106.7, $CL US crude about $97.8; big brother $BTC about $82,000.
If oil prices remain high, inflation and interest rate pressures will be hard to ease, and BTC may not be easy either; if supply expectations improve, risk assets will have a chance to catch a breath.
My thinking: crude oil depends on supply fulfillment, BTC depends on capital support.
News can change expectations, but the real direction still depends on how the price moves.
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute trading advice.
$BZ $CL $BTC