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BlockBeats reports, according to Coinglass statistics: In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the entire network reached $3.024 billion; long position liquidations amounted to $252 million, while short position liquidations soared to $2.77 billion. This short liquidation scale has surpassed the $2.4666 billion during the 10.11 market, becoming the largest short squeeze day in the crypto market in nearly two years. Market data details: In the past 24 hours, a total of 171,045 traders worldwide faced forced liquidations; the largest single liquidation occurred in the Hyperliquid BTC-USD trading pair, with a single liquidation value of $48.8049 million. Market analysis: 1. This round of rally is a typical crowded short squeeze. A large number of leveraged short positions accumulated during the previous long-term consolidation range. After the price broke through key resistance upwards, short positions were passively liquidated, triggering a chain of buy orders, further boosting BTC and ETH, fueling this significant rebound. 2. Short-term bullish sentiment is fully activated, but beware of the short squeeze phase ending temporarily. After large-scale short positions were cleared, the market lacks sustained short-covering buy orders. Subsequent price action will no longer rely on passive liquidations; whether BTC and ETH can maintain their current prices will be the core dividing line in the market. 3. Structural opportunities in the altcoin sector to consider. Current sentiment continues to warm up, getting closer to the altcoin season threshold. However, the original judgment remains: funds are currently concentrated in mainstream assets, with altcoins only passively following the rally. Only if BTC and ETH hold the gains from this rally will market risk appetite further improve Franklin Templeton’s Chris Perkins says crypto fundamentals are improving while market sentiment remains awful.
That gap can create opportunity, but only if the data confirms it. I would watch stablecoin supply, ETF flows and spot volume before assuming negative sentiment alone marks the bottom.
#FOMC9To3Split #BTCBreaks69000 #XiaomiQ2Earnings $BTC Everyone must keep a close eye on altcoins recently, especially the MEME sector, which has already started to show signs of emerging. If $ETH continues to strengthen like this, the altcoin spring will arrive, because as the leader of altcoins, ETH needs to be strong for altcoins to do well.
Moreover, currently 95% of altcoins have already dropped more than 90%. Once the market comes, it's no problem for them to multiply several times. Right now, all that's missing is a spark to ignite enthusiasm for altcoins.
The biggest reason altcoins haven't fully surged yet is that attention is still focused on $BTC and other mainstream coins. Once a high-level consolidation forms, altcoins will start to move!July FOMC Minutes: 9 to 3 Hold Steady, but the Real Hawkish Divergence Is More Worthy of Attention Than the Vote Count
The biggest signal from this meeting is not "9 votes no hike, 3 votes hike," but the minutes show: more people support future rate hikes than the 3 who ultimately voted against.
On July 28–29, the FOMC ultimately held rates at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9 to 3 vote, with officials Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan explicitly advocating a 25 basis point hike.
More notably, the minutes indicate that if inflation remains high, many officials believe further tightening may still be necessary. In other words, the hawkish camp is not just "three voices," but is expanding its influence.
However, this does not mean a hike in September is certain.
It is important to distinguish:
"There is a tendency toward hiking" ≠ "A hike in September is certain."
After the July meeting, some marginal cooling signs appeared in U.S. inflation and employment data, causing market expectations for a September hike to retreat.
So what will truly decide September’s policy is:
August employment + August CPI/PCE.
If inflation rises again while employment remains resilient, the hawkish camp will gain further initiative.
But if employment continues to deteriorate and core inflation keeps falling, even with hawkish voices inside the Fed, they may be unwilling to actually hike.
For BTC, this news is short-term bearish but not a trend negative.
What the market fears most now is:
The economy starts cooling, but inflation does not decline quickly in tandem.
This would create a troublesome "stagflation-like" environment:
Weak employment → no easing
High inflation → no rate cuts
Some officials even consider hikes → liquidity expectations tighten further
For high beta risk assets like BTC, this naturally creates short-term pressure.
Especially the 30-year Treasury yield you’ve been watching, which can now be connected with the FOMC minutes:
Widening hawkish divergence → market demands higher rate compensation → long-end yields high → high valuation assets under pressure.
But there is a counterintuitive signal.
A 9 to 3 split is already a very clear divergence, not a Fed consensus to hike.
So what the market really needs to watch in the coming months is:
3 hawks → 5 → 6?
Or:
3 hawks → weakening data → divergence reconverges?
That will decide policy direction.
In summary:
The July FOMC minutes are not telling the market "the Fed has decided to hike," but rather telling the market: hiking has become a real policy option again, and supporters outnumber the 3 shown in the vote.
Therefore, for BTC, after breaking $69,000, the biggest macro risk returns to "September policy expectations."
If BTC wants to continue moving above 70,000 or even 72,000, it’s best to see two signals simultaneously:
Inflation continues cooling + employment weakens significantly.
Otherwise, if August data again proves inflation stubborn, the $69,000–70,000 range will likely become a fierce battleground between bulls and bears again. $BTC #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $ESP ESP this position is 0.078 long, 20x leverage, currently at 0.085, floating profit 189%. Not using 50x because for these small market cap new coins, I assume the spikes are dirtier, so I keep the leverage conservative.
The chart is actually straightforward: it consolidated around 0.0706, then pushed up with volume, after the 0.076-0.080 consolidation it didn’t drop but continued to rally, reaching a high of 0.08625. The news is that the foundation injected $230,000 into the ESP/stESP Curve pool, which is liquidity provision/narrative ignition, but what really made me hold is that after the rally, the selling pressure didn’t push the price back below 0.080.
The current position is a bit sensitive, already close to the recent high of 0.08625. In the short term, it depends on whether it can hold above 0.084-0.085. Only if it holds there is there a chance to test 0.09+; if it falls back to 0.080-0.082 with increased volume, it means those who chased or took profits earlier are exiting, and I will treat it as a shift from consolidation to weakness.
Below, I see support at 0.080, then 0.076, 0.072. 20x leverage is not something to hold casually; new coins have thin liquidity, and a single spike can wipe out comfortable floating profits.
The logic of this position is not "how good the project is," but that capital is willing to price it within Layer1&2/new coins, and the current market can still absorb it. I will continue to watch for a confirmed breakout above 0.08625; if it doesn’t break through, don’t get overconfident. $ETH
Will keep updating if there are changes; market feel is more reliable than slogans.U.S. Treasury Steps In to Rescue Long-Term Bonds: Behind the 30-Year Treasury Yield Drop, Is It Implicit QE or Liquidity Artificial Respiration?
As soon as the U.S. Treasury suddenly announced an expansion of its long-term bond buyback program, the global bond market immediately stirred up quite a wave.
The 30-year Treasury yield, which had been stubbornly suppressing global assets at high levels for weeks, plunged sharply, prompting cheers in the stock and crypto communities who believe this signals the Treasury quietly easing liquidity and that the Treasury bond crisis alarm has been completely lifted.
But if you really think this is a sign of the Fed cutting rates or restarting quantitative easing (QE), then you are underestimating Wall Street's financial engineering.
Why is the Treasury making such a big deal about buying back long-term Treasuries at this moment?
The answer is simple: liquidity in the long-term Treasury market is nearly dried up, and the balance sheets of Primary Dealers are about to be overwhelmed by the massive issuance scale.
Due to the high U.S. federal government deficit, the Treasury issues enormous amounts of long-term bonds every month. But with overseas buyers' appetite waning, long-term bond auctions frequently show tail-end yield spreads (Tail), and older bonds (Off-the-run Treasuries) issued earlier suffer from extremely poor liquidity and heavy discounts in the secondary market, even threatening the stability of the entire USD benchmark interest rate system.
The Treasury's current operation is essentially a textbook "debt duration reshuffling":
The Treasury issues highly liquid ultra-short-term T-Bills, absorbs cash from money market funds, and then uses that cash to buy back those illiquid, unwanted old 30-year bonds in the secondary market.
This is not printing money out of thin air; rather, the Treasury is acting as the last market maker in the long bond market, providing artificial respiration to liquidity on the verge of suffocation.
The short-term effect of this operation is obvious: the 30-year Treasury yield falls from its highs, providing a precious breathing room for risk assets under valuation pressure (including U.S. tech stocks and Bitcoin) in the short term.
But amid the celebration, we must clearly see the long-term cost behind it:
By swapping long-term debt for short-term debt, the average duration of U.S. government debt is sharply compressed. This means that as long as benchmark interest rates remain high, the Treasury will face snowballing interest rollover pressure in the future. The trillion-dollar fiscal deficit has not disappeared; it has merely been postponed.
If long-term rates rebound to high levels again after this short-term technical drop due to inflation resurgence or a bond issuance tsunami, the resilience of major assets will face brutal differentiation:
The first to be hit hard will be high-valuation tech stocks lacking cash flow support, as they are extremely sensitive to discount rates.
In contrast, gold and Bitcoin have completely different logic. Gold is enjoying the highest safe-haven premium as global central banks de-dollarize and seek non-sovereign credit assets; while Bitcoin, although subject to short-term volatility from liquidity drainage, will see its scarce anti-inflation properties grow stronger over time amid the ultimate game of infinite sovereign debt expansion and long-term fiat purchasing power dilution.
In the current environment of fiscal patching and high-rate tug-of-war, my own asset allocation strategy is very clear:
Firmly avoid highly leveraged small- and mid-cap junk stocks, and anchor my portfolio weight on the "physical gold + spot Bitcoin + 5% risk-free Treasury cash flow" triangle, which balances offense and defense. Staying alive is more important than anything until the macro storm truly subsides.
After the Treasury's expanded buyback, do you think the 30-year Treasury yield has peaked? Facing a long-term high interest rate environment, which asset do you currently hold the most: cash, gold, or crypto?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 The July FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve are out, with a 9 to 3 vote to keep rates unchanged. On the surface, it seems uneventful, but there's actually quite a bit of interest inside.
Three officials have already supported a 25 basis point rate hike, indicating that concerns about inflation within the Fed have not completely disappeared.
So I think a rate hike in September is not the main storyline for now; the likelihood of keeping rates steady is higher. But the market shouldn't rush to fully price in rate cuts either, because as long as inflation picks up again later, expectations for rate cuts could be reversed at any time.
For $BTC, what's most important now is not focusing on any single official's speech, but watching the upcoming CPI, PCE, and employment data.
If inflation continues to fall and employment weakens, risk assets still have room to grow; conversely, if inflation rises again, then with the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields going up, $BTC might take a hit first.
So at this stage, I remain cautious. The market can be bullish, but there's no need to go all in on positions at once. The BTC surge on August 19th was indeed quite strong.
It went straight from 64,000 to 69,500, rising 5,500 overnight.
I took a look and found an interesting factor behind it: the U.S. Treasury increased the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases.
The amount isn’t actually large, only $4 billion.
But the market is more focused on this signal: long-term bond yields are too high, so someone stepped in to support them.
The 30-year Treasury yield dropped from about 5.34% to 5.18%, and then gold, BTC, and other risk assets all moved up together.
Another very important reason for this BTC surge is that there were simply too many shorts before.
As the price rose, shorts started liquidating, and liquidations forced buying back, pushing the price higher, which caused more short squeezes.
It just kept climbing like that.
I think the short squeeze component in this move is very significant.
Next, we need to watch one thing:
With most shorts cleared out, is there still real buying demand to continue?
If yes, then 69,500 might just be a midpoint.
If not, the faster this rise, the quicker the potential pullback afterward.
So I still say:
Don’t rush to call a bull market yet; let’s see if the market can stand on its own.
What do you think? Is this the start of a new rally, or just a pure short squeeze?
Let’s discuss in the comments. #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
"White House Discussed Buying Bitcoin: The Real Financial Ledger Behind the Political Slogan"
News just broke at the White House summit about discussions to include Bitcoin in the national reserves, instantly flooding major communities with celebrations of a sovereign bull market.
Looking into the U.S. Treasury's budget approval rules reveals the real situation. Administrative verbal statements cannot directly access the treasury; establishing a national strategic reserve requires passing a dedicated appropriation bill through both houses of Congress, with a normal legislative process taking at least 12 to 18 months. Taking political campaign rhetoric as if hundreds of billions in fiscal funds will enter the market next week is purely inflating the mood for the benefit of major capital.
Large funds in the market have already used this news premium to place hedging orders at high levels. Currently, the perpetual contract basis has quickly widened to an annualized 18% after the news fermented. Retail investors blindly leveraging up at this point not only face high overnight fees but also risk a liquidity crunch if the bill expectations fail.
The most pragmatic strategy now is to take profits in batches on the news-driven spike, locking the spot floating profit defense line at $66,500. If the coin price stalls above $69,800, directly match an equal amount of perpetual short positions on the spot side to earn a full annualized basis yield of over 15%, never risking real money on legislative expectations floating in the air. $BTC The worst thing at the dinner table is to hear one sentence: "If you don't have enough money, borrow more." In the short term, you can still eat and get by; Over time, what truly keeps you awake isn't the IOU itself, but the interest that gets deducted every month. The U.S. is doing the same this time. By August 18, 2026, the total outstanding public debt in the United States will reach $40,047,425,768,420.22, officially surpassing the $40 trillion threshold. Who is affected? Not just the U.S. Treasury, nor just Wall Street traders. It affects those who buy U.S. Treasury bonds, those holding dollar assets, companies that settle and price in dollars, and ordinary families who seem far removed from Treasuries, caring only about vegetable prices, mortgages, fund net asset value, and exchange rate fluctuations every day. Much of the world's money flows through the U.S. Treasury bond pipeline. Readers now need to verify three things: First, $40 trillion refers to the total outstanding public debt of the United States, which does not equal a deficit in one year or the entire concept of national debt circulating in the market; Second, the public holds about $32.27 trillion in debt, while the government holds about $7.78 trillion; Third, the real focus is not on whether the company will suddenly collapse someday, but on whether interest payments, bond yields, fiscal deficits, and the credit of the dollar continue to be under pressure. [40 trillion is not a scary slogan] Many financial figures easily turn into emotions when they get big. 40 trillion dollars—ordinary people find it hard to feel it. It's not like a pound of vegetables rising from 5 to 8 yuan, not like paying a mortgage of several hundred yuan a month, or like a childMajor event in the crypto world today!! On August 19, the U.S. Treasury Department announced: starting September 9, the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks will at least double, increasing from $2 billion each time to $4 billion.
The market immediately called it "QE Lite."
The effect was immediate: the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 7 basis points in one day to 4.641%, the 30-year dropped 10 basis points to 5.189%, and the dollar index fell 0.83% to 98.833.
The transmission chain is very direct: easing long-term rates → dollar depreciation → risk asset revaluation → $BTC $ETH
Last week, posts complaining that "30-year Treasury at 5.216% is a gray rhino" now need a new headline.
My conclusion: the macro window is reopening, and the mid-term environment for $BTC is improving.
My strategy: build positions in batches on pullbacks to $67K-$68K, stop loss if it breaks $66,000; mid-to-long-term target $72K-$75K.
Risks involved: Treasury buybacks are not true QE, just "pressuring the yield curve," the real direction will be set by the September FOMC.
Sure enough, a statement from the Treasury is more effective than a Fed rate cut.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $ETH $BTC partly dropped because last night the US Treasury's long-term bond repurchase caused long-term US Treasury yields to soar to multi-year highs, putting pressure on the market. The Treasury announced it would at least double the repurchase scale for 10-30 year bonds to $4 billion, enhancing long-term liquidity and suppressing yields. Once the news came out, yields fell back, risk appetite rose, driving this big bullish candle.
The core is that the policy signal alleviates financing pressure, benefiting risk assets including crypto.Before the U.S. stock market opens, is anyone willing to pay a 30% reduction to receive social security benefits early?
1) Has the market responded?
2) Where is the real impact?
Trump is pushing a crypto regulatory bill, sparking market expectations for policy clarity. If the bill passes, it could reduce industry uncertainty, benefit crypto asset valuations, and indirectly boost risk appetite. However, the bill is still under congressional review, progress is not public, and the impact path needs verification.
3) Both sides need to be considered
A positive signal is that after debt surpassed $40 trillion, the Treasury unusually expanded buybacks, showing an intention to intervene in market liquidity, which may stabilize asset prices. On the downside, long-term bond yields are suppressed, possibly reflecting market concerns about debt sustainability rather than real economic improvement.
4) What answers are we waiting for?
Waiting for Congress to respond to Trump's proposal, for official disclosure of the scale and frequency of long-term bond buybacks, and for changes in crypto asset trading volume and holdings. Without substantial progress, pre-market volatility may return to neutral.
For informational and market scenario analysis only, not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.This pattern feels recognizable — a quick rally most mistake for the real move, followed by a hard reversal. My read differs: I doubt price clears 70K. Resistance builds heavily below 68K, right where confidence peaks. The coin rally being hyped seems weaker than claimed — depth isn't there like earlier cycles, even with ETH holding firm alone. I still expect a final dip late summer, but treat it as a trap. My approach: trim exposure past 68K, skip the final stretch, re-enter only after a real b$xNVDA is currently the most awkward one in the market: others are celebrating wildly, but it is the only one in the red.
Last night, the Treasury's "QE Lite" ignited all risk assets, with major tech stocks almost all in the green. However, NVDA fell 0.99% again on 8/19, closing at 217.56, marking three consecutive days of decline (8/18 -2.34%, 8/17 -0.07%). While the whole market is rallying, it is not following, indicating that the AI sector is cooling down in the short term, and funds are moving from "certain giants" to more speculative crypto short squeezes and small to mid-cap stocks.
But don't consider it a weak stock. NVDA currently has a market cap of 5.32 trillion dollars, a PE ratio of 33, and institutional consensus remains "buy," with an average target price of 314 dollars (+45% compared to the current price). The Q2 earnings report will be released on 8/26, with market expectations for EPS at 2.09 dollars (up from 1.96 three months ago), and estimates have been continuously revised upward. This kind of "pre-earnings dip" is very common; it’s not a lack of confidence but a fear of the good news being priced in, so funds pull back first to wait for a lower entry point.
Technically, 217-218 is the short-term battleground line, with support at 216 below and resistance at 222 above. It is currently stuck near the 50-day moving average, waiting for the 8/26 earnings report to provide direction. However, NVDA’s "decline" is usually a buildup for the earnings report.BlackRock says BTC has allocation value, the key point is not that it is bullish
but that it has transformed BTC from a "trading asset" into a "portfolio tool"
This step is very important. Retail investors buying BTC often buy based on direction, belief, volatility, and sentiment; institutions discussing BTC ask about risk budget, correlation, liquidity, custody, audit, and position limits. Both sides are buying the same asset, but their thinking is completely different
I believe BTC's true maturity is not about how much it is shouted about daily
but that more and more asset managers start asking: what role does it actually play in the portfolio? Is it a substitute for gold, or a diversification against dollar risk? Is it a long-term allocation or a tactical tool? How large should the position be, and can the volatility be tolerated?
This is more fundamental than short-term price breakthroughs
When BTC changes from "whether to buy" to "how much to buy," its market structure has already changed
#贝莱德重申BTC仍具配置价值 After a 7.1% surge, 44,300 BTC were suddenly transferred to exchanges.
BTC achieved its best single-day performance since February, but many short-term holders began selling as the price rose.
Analyst Darkfost stated that after BTC price broke through the short-term holder cost line of about $67,100, more than 44,300 BTC in profit were transferred to exchanges, marking the largest short-term profit-taking move this year.
Combining related news, the driving forces behind this surge can be analyzed as:
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, causing long-term yields to fall immediately
- Trump stated at a crypto conference that the U.S. is considering purchasing a large amount of Bitcoin and is again pushing the CLARITY Act.
Therefore, this was not without catalysts, but after the positive push on the price, it also released the pent-up selling pressure. Why are we in the liquidation queue this time, and how to respond next!
📉 Macro Trigger: U.S. Treasury "Shock" Shakes Global Liquidity
· Repo Scale Doubled: On August 19, it was announced that the single repo scale for 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds would be increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9.
🏛️ Policy and Capital: Regulatory Benefits and Institutional "Buying Frenzy"
Along with the improvement in macro liquidity, policy and capital aspects also resonate:
· Regulatory "Combination Punch": The White House held a crypto industry summit, Trump called on Congress to advance the "CLARITY Act"; the SEC proposed a new regulatory framework with a safe harbor mechanism capped at $5 million financing.
· Institutional Capital Pre-positioning: Institutions like BlackRock aggressively bought near $60,000. New Fire Group's OTC business volume in July increased 257% month-over-month. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $487 million over two days, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $143 million in a single day.
· Sector Capital Return: The AI sector's growth slowed, and some funds flowed back into the crypto market.
💎 Summary
This rally is a multidimensional resonance of macro (U.S. Treasury policy), micro (short position structure), policy (regulatory benefits), and capital (institutional inflows).
However, it should be noted that the main force behind this rise is short positions being passively closed, not genuine spot buying. Coinbase premium was previously negative, and ETF funds have just turned from outflows to inflows. The Treasury's repo is not quantitative easing (QE) and does not directly create new money. BTC / $USDT (4H) — BTC pushed directly into the $70K area, clearing upper-side liquidity after a sharp vertical move. With a large 4H FVG sitting below, a cooling pullback could be setting up.
Trade: SHORT
Entry: $69,600–$70,100
TP1: $68,200
TP2: $66,500
TP3: $65,000
SL: $70,600
#StorageValuationSplit #TreasuryUpsBuybacks #FOMC9To3Split #XiaomiQ2Earnings Xiaomi’s latest results highlighted the growing importance of its electric-vehicle business. Second-quarter revenue was approximately RMB99.1 billion, while smartphone revenue was around RMB44.3 billion. Smart EV, AI and other new initiatives generated almost RMB19.9 billion. Continued vehicle deliveries helped offset pressure from smartphone competition, higher component costs and weaker profitability in Xiaomi’s traditional hardware operation.
Xiaomi’s advantage is its ability to connect smartphones, home devices and vehicles within one ecosystem. That could reduce customer-acquisition costs and create cross-selling opportunities unavailable to many standalone automakers. However, manufacturing vehicles requires substantial investment, and Xiaomi faces aggressive competition from BYD, Tesla and other Chinese brands. Investors should look beyond delivery growth and monitor vehicle gross margins, factory utilization and research spending. The EV operation is becoming large enough to reshape Xiaomi’s valuation, but it must eventually demonstrate that rapid expansion can produce sustainable profits.8.20# U.S. Treasury expands long-term bond repurchase, 30-year U.S. bonds retreat from highs
This post analyzes the gold trend, how to understand the gold trend!
First point: Why has gold recently taken off?
Two important points: U.S. bonds have fallen into crisis, causing a huge liquidity gap. The specific reason is the rapid collapse triggered by selling euros to rescue the yen. The U.S. Treasury immediately stepped in to stabilize the market, but this can only have a temporary effect. The core problem still exists, and the final outcome still requires the Federal Reserve to open the floodgates!
Another reason is the decline of the U.S. dollar, with funds flowing into stable assets like gold and high-risk assets like crypto. This does not mean liquidity has improved; liquidity remains very tight and requires the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity to improve. Currently, gold is bearing part of the load, and major central banks are continuously purchasing gold. So this is the takeoff phase for gold, a long-term positive trend forming. Next, we will see if it can reach the important 5000 mark!
A simple share about the gold trend. Friends involved in gold trading are welcome to exchange views if they have different opinions. Understanding the trend is key to understanding the movement. Wishing everyone prosperity 💰Briefly sharing important information
1. There should be significant progress in the Strait of Hormuz this week
Progress will immediately benefit the Japanese and South Korean stock markets
You can directly call $KORU $SOXL here
Crude oil is also the biggest threat to inflation in Japan and South Korea
Relative changes in the strait will bring a corresponding opposite effect to the market
2. I will fully accompany everyone for the 10y US Treasury auction at 1:00 on Wednesday
This 10y US Treasury auction may be the most important of this quarter
It will guide whether the market heads toward a recession
3. Employment data, CPI, and PPI guidance all point to no rate hikes, but last week's decline in consumer data has raised market concerns about a recession. Today's drop is also due to this
4. This decline is unrelated to defensive moves before NVDA earnings; it is more about recession defense causing the drop
A typical safe haven
5. Gold remains an important long-term asset
6. Pay attention to the cryptocurrency summit held at the White House on Wednesday, with participants including SEC, CFTC, and crypto company leaders such as Coinbase, Robinhood, Ripple, Gemini, etc. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said tokenization may become a focus of the summit.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Storage stocks—the AI story is over, now it's time for ghost stories
SanDisk just finished painting the "long-term growth" picture at its investor day, and the next day it opened down 9%. SK Hynix, Micron, and Western Digital all followed suit, with SanDisk closing down 3.5%, and Western Digital and Seagate falling even more.
Translation—investors have lost faith
Short-term funds are repeatedly jumping sideways at the top, basically deceiving each other—after a year of telling the "AI server demand explosion" story, have NAND prices risen? Have customer agreements been signed? Has profitability been realized?
None of these have been fulfilled.
Bank of America is still "providing valuation references for Micron," references for what? How to inflate the PE to 50 times and then cut retail investors?
Storage stocks now are like those "ecosystem narrative" coins in crypto—the bigger the story, the riskier the chip structure. SanDisk's high-volume plunge shows smart money has already started to exit.
The bottleneck period has arrived, don't catch the falling knife. Wait until NAND prices truly bottom out and inventory is genuinely cleared before considering a bottom-fishing. If you rush in now, you become the "cost of growth" in that long-term growth target.
Disclaimer: After storage stocks fall, there might still be an AI 2.0 narrative, but when that time comes, remember to call me—I’ll be hiding in BTC 74000 first
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 Last night was really bloody, all the shorts were liquidated and died
The bulls are great again $BTC $ETH #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $OKB really pulled a bit this round. As a long-time OKX user, I do feel a bit embarrassed, but trading isn’t about feelings, you have to accept it.
$BTC rose about 10%, ETH directly 20%, OKB went from 99 to 104.5, just over a 5% increase, which really feels like it didn’t eat. The reason is simple: this wave is a short squeeze. There were a lot of short positions stacked on BTC and ETH; when the price pulled up, shorts were liquidated one after another, buying themselves up, so the increase was naturally fierce. OKB doesn’t have that many shorts, so it can’t benefit from the short squeeze, and funds all ran to chase BTC and ETH, leaving the platform token to just circle in the corner.
Also, OKB already ran from 97 to 102 a few days ago, so it had an early move. Now at 104.5, it hasn’t actually fallen, it’s just rising slowly—not weak, just not strong.
Key levels:
Support: 101-102, if it holds on a pullback, you can keep holding; if it breaks below 100, this rebound is basically over.
Resistance: 104.5-105.5, only if it breaks above with volume can it catch up with the broader market.
I’m personally holding my base position but will watch the OKB/BTC exchange rate. If it keeps underperforming, it means funds don’t recognize the platform token at all, then I’ll reduce some and switch to stronger coins, keeping just a faith position. The market doesn’t care about sentiment; no matter how good OKX is, it doesn’t mean $OKB must rise in the short term.
One last thing: don’t force reasons just because you hold OKB. Underperforming is underperforming; accept it and adjust rather than stubbornly holding on.ETH is really showing some strength this time. It surged 18% in 24 hours, pushing above $2250, while BTC also hit $70,000 but its increase is clearly not as dramatic as ETH's. After being quiet for so long, Ethereum is finally starting to move. The capital inflow isn't just for show either. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a single-day inflow of $517 million, and ETH ETFs attracted $189 million, which is one of the larger single-day inflows in months. This is worth noting. Recently, the market was basically carried by BTC alone, with ETH and other major coins clearly lagging behind. Now that ETH is suddenly seeing a volume surge and price rally, it indicates that funds are starting to spread beyond just Bitcoin. Plus, shorts have been continuously liquidated these past few days, and once an upward momentum forms, it easily draws back the cautious capital. There are also catalysts on the policy front. Trump publicly urged Congress at the White House to advance the Clarity Act, but the bill still faces disagreements, so it's uncertain if it will be enacted soon. So what I want to see now is whether ETH can hold this rally. If ETH stabilizes above $2250 and continues upward, the market's trading logic might no longer be just "BTC-only rallies." After being quiet for so long, is Ethereum really about to catch up this time, or will it just be another pump and dump? What do you think ETH can reach in this round?The Fed is arguing 9 to 3 over whether to raise rates, but BTC surged to 70,000: Who does the market really believe?
The FOMC minutes show 9 votes to hold steady and 3 votes to raise rates by 25 basis points, with Logan, Harker, and Kashkari dissenting. On the surface, it looks hawkish, but in reality, the division has widened: the majority think current rates are high enough, while a minority worry about inflation recurring.
Logically, this should suppress risk assets, but BTC has rallied from around 64,000 to near 70,000. The reason isn’t that the market suddenly believes in rate cuts, but that it’s trading something else: the Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, with the 10-year yield falling from 4.71% to 4.64%, easing liquidity pressure in the short term; meanwhile, short squeeze liquidations further amplified the rise.
So the market currently trusts "data and liquidity," not the Fed’s verbal disputes. But this doesn’t mean the risk of rate hikes has disappeared; the September path will still be repriced by inflation and employment.
Right now, I’m watching two signals: whether BTC can hold above 70,000, and whether a pullback to 69,000 can be supported. Holding above means the market is willing to continue pricing risk assets with a premium; falling back to 69,000 means this was just a short squeeze, not a trend reversal.
Brothers, do you think the market is trading easing ahead of time, or just riding the Fed’s division for a quick pump?
$BTC $ETH #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Why is Bitcoin rising? $BTC
The move may have less to do with crypto-specific factors and more to do with liquidity, positioning, and macro conditions.
Here’s the breakdown:
The U.S. Treasury has increased the size of its bond buybacks, with individual operations rising from around $2B to at least $4B.
The focus is on longer-dated 10–30 year Treasuries, meaning the government is buying back some of its longest-term debt.
This comes as the 30-year Treasury
#BTCBreaks69000 $BTC was still at 62,800 three days ago, and today it reached a high of 70,009 USD. In the past 24 hours, about 1.84 billion USD worth of liquidations occurred across the entire network, with the short-to-long liquidation ratio reaching as high as 8.6:1. This is not an ordinary rebound; it is a short squeeze triggered simultaneously by three external forces.
First force: U.S. Treasury "QE-style" repurchase
The U.S. Treasury announced it will at least double the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, with each operation no less than 4 billion USD, effective September 9. Long-term Treasury yields dropped sharply in response, the dollar weakened, and liquidity release effects are real—although officials deny this is QE, the market is pricing it as QE.
Second force: Regulatory clarity expectations
Trump met with executives from Coinbase, Gemini, Ripple, and other crypto companies, strongly promoting the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act." The Senate Banking Committee chairman stated a procedural vote will be held on September 15. Meanwhile, the SEC is advancing a proposal to exempt token issuances under 5 million USD. Policy barriers for institutional entry are being cleared.
Third force: Real money inflows into ETFs
Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net inflow of 487 million USD over two consecutive days, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing 144 million USD in a single day, approaching a total of 951 million USD since August. This is not retail behavior; it is Wall Street systematically covering positions.
With the Treasury easing, Trump delivering policies, and ETFs buying aggressively, these three positive factors combined have crushed the shorts. But the 70,000 level has never been an easy path historically. Whether to chase or not, weigh it yourself. On September 15, the U.S. Senate will hold a vote. This vote could directly slash the stablecoin yields in your hands.
On August 19, the American Bankers Association publicly stated: they support the passage of the CLARITY Act but insist on tightening the stablecoin reward provisions before the September vote.
ABA President Rob Nichols said: The bill should prohibit stablecoin reward mechanisms that are "substantially similar" to interest payments.
In plain language: the 3.5% reward your platform gives me looks too much like bank interest, so it has to be killed.
Why are banks so anxious?
Because money is flowing out.
The average U.S. bank deposit interest rate is only 0.1%. Meanwhile, Coinbase offers USDC holders a 3.5% reward.
That's a 35 times difference.
Banks are panicking. They rely on these deposits to issue small business loans, mortgages, and agricultural financing. With stablecoins yielding 3.5% annually, who would still put money in banks?
So the ABA is lobbying hard to broaden the definition of "substantially similar" — broad enough to ban any reward that "looks like interest."
But there is a more subtle issue behind this.
The GENIUS Act passed in 2025 already prohibits stablecoin issuers from directly paying interest or yields to holders.
But there is a loophole — the law does not regulate "third-party platforms."
So Coinbase exploited this gap: I am not the issuer, just a platform; the 3.5% I give users is called a "platform reward," not "interest."
The CLARITY Act aims to seal this loophole completely.
Section 404 of the draft clearly states: any regulated entity shall not directly or indirectly pay any form of interest or yield to holders — solely because they hold stablecoins.
"Any regulated entity" and "directly or indirectly" — Coinbase cannot escape.
Two scenarios, consider them yourself:
🔴 Risk scenario (ABA amendment passes)
"Substantially similar" is broadly interpreted
Coinbase and other platforms’ USDC 3.5% rewards are cut
Impact: all users holding stablecoins on centralized exchanges
🟢 Optimistic scenario (amendment rejected)
Retain "activity-based" reward mechanisms (staking, trading, and other real behaviors)
USDC yield model continues
Coinbase’s $1.35 billion stablecoin revenue in 2025 remains unaffected
Key timeline:
September 15: Senate procedural vote, needs 60 votes to advance
September 18: Cloture vote to end debate
Before then: ABA is lobbying hard for the amendment
Trump has publicly urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. Coinbase CEO predicts it may get over 60 votes in favor.
My strategy:
No extreme position adjustments before September 15 — but closely monitor the Senate Banking Committee’s amendment text.
If the definition of "substantially similar" is too broad — consider moving some stablecoins to on-chain protocols not subject to U.S. regulation.
⚠️ This is not financial advice, just analysis.
Banks say stablecoin rewards "weaken their lending capacity."
But the question is — why are you making choices for me?
The 3.5% yield is my choice; I don’t need you to "protect" me.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Facing $MRVL's drop yesterday, I added quite a bit (mentioned in yesterday's post). Today, news came out that $GOOG has brought $MRVL into the TPU ecosystem's "custom chip + memory/network/storage controller" supply chain.
Google has opened a big door for MRVL within the TPU system, outlining a procurement path up to FY2033 with a maximum of $120 billion. At the same time, $NVDA has also opened a door for $MRVL within the NV system.
This path is very clear. Memory is a wall that everyone wants to break through, and Marvell has the key ability to break the interconnect wall.
This is actually new news. From April to August, combined with what I heard from friends, I have mentioned this many times, and the articles and posts are all there.
If you ask the market who is optimistic about MRVL and who is not, many people can speak confidently.
But if you ask: What does MRVL do? Which product line is promising? What opportunity are they waiting for?
I think many people would be speechless. This is why you need to understand the power of fundamentals. Once you see the fundamentals, just wait for them to slowly materialize.
I still remain optimistic. The TPU collaboration is just the first route, and I expect the penetration in this direction to continue increasing. Another area is Scale Up, which I believe is not yet priced in, waiting The favorable policy has landed, but the White House crypto meeting showed no substantial policy progress, missing one of the two major factors driving #Bitcoin's rise. Where to go from here?
As mentioned earlier, the two major factors driving #BTC's rise are the macro side and the policy side. One has now landed, but the result was below expectations. There is little policy progress regarding crypto, and the crypto market lacks its own exclusive positive catalyst.
On the macro side, the bond market repo benefit brought by Basent is currently hard to determine whether it is a long-term policy benefit or a short-term political suppression of interest rates. Over time, if this benefit cannot be consolidated, its effect will gradually diminish.
Going forward, the only support for BTC to continue rising or stabilize at a high level can rely on ETFs and net inflows of mainstream crypto funds. Continued attention is needed to see if net inflows can be sustained.
Technically, the short-term resistance is referenced at 69,000, support at 67,400. Once 67,400 is effectively broken, a further pullback should be expected!Short sellers betting against BTC at 70,000 lost $2.74 billion yesterday alone.
BTC surged violently to 70,000, with a 24-hour increase of over 8%. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $2.975 billion, with shorts accounting for $2.74 billion, representing over 91% of the liquidations, marking the largest short squeeze in the crypto market in nearly two years. Ethereum shorts were also liquidated by $1.13 billion as ETH violently surged from around 1900 to 2264, an increase of over 18%.
On Hype, three accounts collectively liquidated $194 million, with the largest single liquidation at $48.8 million. In just one hour, more than $1 billion in short positions were forcibly closed.
Why the sudden pump?
Trump met with executives from Coinbase, Robinhood, and other crypto companies at the White House, stating that the government has established a strategic Bitcoin reserve and urged Congress to quickly pass a "fair version" of the CLARITY Act. The SEC is cooperating by proposing new regulatory drafts for crypto assets. The Treasury doubled the long-term bond repurchase limit to $4 billion.
Short sellers got crushed, policies turned favorable, and BTC is now at the doorstep of 70,000. What next?
IG's chief technical analyst said this move is mainly driven by short covering. The short squeeze came fast and may go away just as quickly. 70,000 is a historically dense chip area; whether ETF buying can sustain is the key—ETF net inflows in August have nearly reached $951 million, but if funds slow down next week, this rally might just be a short squeeze, not a reversal.
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
Many people only noticed that the Federal Reserve did not cut interest rates, but what truly deserves attention is: the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are widening.
The July FOMC minutes show that although the rate was ultimately held steady, some officials have already leaned towards rate cuts, while others worry about inflation recurring and want to continue tightening.
This is an important signal for $BTC.
In the short term, the market will continue to trade on rate cut expectations. If inflation continues to decline in the future and the Federal Reserve begins easing, liquidity will improve, and risk assets including Bitcoin and $ETH may continue to benefit.
But if inflation heats up again and rate cut expectations are delayed, the market may also face pressure.
So what truly affects BTC now is not a single piece of news, but the underlying liquidity cycle.
In past bull markets, the biggest driving force was always an improved funding environment.
Currently, the market is waiting for a key confirmation:
Whether the Federal Reserve has officially entered an easing cycle.
If liquidity reopens, the crypto market may see greater opportunities; but before a policy shift, volatility and fluctuations will still exist. Bullish!
Everyone is looking for the reasons behind BTC's rise, and there are actually three core factors:
First, the pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds is increasing. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond once surged above 5.3%, hitting a multi-year high. As the world starts worrying about how to handle the $40 trillion debt, the market nat assets that are "not easily diluted." Gold and Bitcoin have re-entered the capital spotlight. #FOMC9To3Split #BTCBreaks69000 #XiaomiQ2Earnings Recently discovered a pattern
I found that gold rises first, then Bitcoin follows
In the future, when you see gold break its previous high, go long on Bitcoin directly
You can review this, it's a relatively stable profit-making trend
$BTC $XAU How much interest does your bank account's savings deposit give you in a year?
0.01%.
JPMorgan Chase's savings account interest rate hasn't changed much in 20 years.
But if you open Coinbase and hold USDC, the annualized yield is 3.5%. Kraken and Gemini offer even higher rates, above 3.75%.
The same US dollar, placed in different places, yields 350 times more.
Banks are panicking.
On August 19, Rob Nichols, president of the American Bankers Association, publicly stated support for the CLARITY Act—but with one condition: stablecoin rewards must be banned.
Note his wording—he demands banning stablecoin rewards that are "substantially similar" to interest payments.
What does "substantially similar" mean?
Banks say: your 3.5% yield is no different from interest and must be banned.
The crypto industry says: this is a platform reward, not interest, so why ban it?
A war over "what counts as interest" is raging on Capitol Hill.
Why are banks so afraid?
Ronit Ghose, head of future finance at Citigroup, warns: if stablecoins can pay interest, it could trigger a massive bank deposit outflow similar to the rise of money market funds in the 1980s.
Bank of America CEO Moynihan puts it more bluntly: without restrictions, up to $6 trillion in deposits could shift away from banks—accounting for 30% to 35% of all U.S. commercial bank deposits.
$6.6 trillion.
Not billion, trillion.
The deposit empire banks built over 200 years could be drained in a few years by a digital dollar product.
But the harshest reality is this:
While banks cry "deposits are running away," their profits are hitting record highs.
FDIC data shows: in Q1 2026, the U.S. banking industry earned $80.5 billion, a record. Bank deposits have net inflows for seven consecutive quarters, nearing $21 trillion in total.
Deposits haven't fled, profits are at new highs.
So what are banks really afraid of?
Competition.
They're afraid users will realize: my money doesn't have to stay in banks, and I can earn more elsewhere.
Rashan Colbert, policy director at the Crypto Innovation Council, says plainly: "There is currently no evidence that stablecoins are drawing deposits away—this has not been found to be true, and current stablecoin activity does not even suggest this possibility."
The most surreal part of this whole situation is here—
In July 2025, the GENIUS Act was signed into law, explicitly banning stablecoin issuers (like Circle) from directly paying interest to holders.
But the law has a loophole: it only bans issuers, not exchanges.
Coinbase does not issue USDC; Circle does. Coinbase simply distributes the interest income generated by USDC reserves to users as "loyalty rewards."
The issuer doesn't pay interest, the exchange gives rewards.
This is not a loophole, it's an open secret.
The OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) proposed rules in February this year to try to close this loophole. The ABA is now pushing the CLARITY Act to tighten this further, aiming to nail the last nail in this loophole's coffin.
The banks' target has never been Circle—it’s Coinbase.
The CLARITY Act will be voted on in the Senate on September 15 and needs 60 votes to advance.
But the chance of the bill passing has dropped from 82% at the start of the year to 10%-20%. Three major controversies remain unresolved—ethical rules, developer protections, and stablecoin rewards.
On August 20, Trump even called from the White House urging Congress to pass a "fair version."
A trillion-dollar lobbying war is heating up in the countdown to September 15.
Honestly—
Banks have spent decades pushing savings rates close to zero, earning over $360 billion annually from payment and deposit businesses.
Now someone is offering users 3.5%, and banks are panicking.
They call this "systemic risk."
I call it "competition."
On September 15, the Senate will vote on one thing:
Whether the 3.5% yield on USDC you hold on Coinbase can stay.
Banks say: this is interest and must be banned.
The crypto industry says: this is a reward, why ban it?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 $HYPE is surging with increased volume as it approaches the historical high, with bullish forces directly confronting the dense resistance above $73.
The market shows a series of rapid short-term bullish candles, accompanied by short position liquidations, and selling pressure near $73 is beginning to cluster.
CFTC's push for regulatory expectations allowing decentralized protocols to legally enter the US market, combined with fee buyback and burn driven by rising hype, is driving leveraged funds on the exchange to rapidly push up the rates.
The buying pressure from policy sentiment resonates with deflationary supply, fueling this pulse, but the high fee rate also means that the cost of pushing prices up is rapidly accumulating.
If buying volume can break through $73 and confirm above it, the consolidation range will be completely broken, opening space to extend toward new historical highs.
If bulls are suppressed at the $73 resistance zone and buying momentum fades, the elevated leverage fee rate may trigger profit-taking, and the price will seek support at previous platform levels.
Once there is a rapid volume-driven breakdown from the high level and funding rates sharply cool, it means the current bullish structure fails, and the market will enter a wide-range consolidation.
The key variables to watch in the coming days are the breakthrough confirmation at the critical $73 resistance and the convergence pace of bullish position funding rates.
#成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 #花旗拟推BTC托管，机构入口扩容This round of BTC's rise appears on the surface as a single candlestick explosion, but in reality, the underlying capital logic is changing.
Many people only focus on the price, yet overlook several core factors driving the market shift:
First, global concerns about the creditworthiness of the US dollar are intensifying.
The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds remains high, prompting the market to reassess the expanding debt scale and the future monetary environment.
When investors start worrying about the long-term dilution of fiat purchasing power, capital naturally seeks assets with scarcity attributes.
Gold is one option, while BTC, with its fixed supply of 21 million coins, is gradually being reallocated by some funds as a "digital scarce asset."
Second, the crypto industry is moving from a "regulatory crackdown period" into a "rule establishment period."
In recent years, the biggest market resistance was not a lack of capital but excessive uncertainty.
Institutions want to enter but worry about compliance; traditional finance wants to position itself but lacks clear rules.
Now regulators are discussing clearer digital asset frameworks, which is not only a short-term positive for the market but also paves the way for large future capital inflows.
Third, Wall Street is transforming crypto from a speculative product into part of asset allocation.
In this related conference, participation from traditional financial institutions, trading platforms, and crypto companies has noticeably increased, sending a clear signal:
Crypto is no longer just a retail game but is gradually entering the mainstream financial system.
Past rallies relied on sentiment; future growth may depend more on changes in capital structure.
Of course, after BTC's short-term surge, profit-taking pressure cannot be ignored; the market will not rise unilaterally forever. What truly determines the subsequent space is whether capital inflows can continue and whether macro liquidity can keep improving.
The biggest change in this market cycle is not just the price increase but that the market is re-pricing BTC.
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
#OKX预言家第二季：电竞西甲赛果揭晓，英超法甲接棒
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 Bullish!
Everyone is looking for the reasons behind BTC's rise, and there are actually three core factors:
First, the pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds is increasing. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond once surged above 5.3%, hitting a multi-year high. As the world starts worrying about how to handle the $40 trillion debt, the market naturally begins to seek assets that are "not easily diluted." Gold and Bitcoin have re-entered the capital spotlight.
Second, the U.S. regulatory attitude has changed. The SEC recently proposed a regulatory framework for crypto assets, no longer just cracking down but starting to design compliance pathways for Crypto. This is the biggest change for institutional funds.
Third, Wall Street is really entering the market. At last night's White House Crypto summit, SEC, CFTC, Coinbase, Ripple, Robinhood, Kraken, Chainlink, Nasdaq, NYSE, CME, and DTCC all appeared. #FederalReserve July FOMC minutes 9-3, officials still divided on rate hikes #BTC breaks $69,000, how far can this rally go? #U.S. Treasury expands long-term bond repurchase, 30-year Treasury yields retreat from highs In the morning, I reminded everyone to buy near 69000 on the pullback. The afternoon market as expected pushed up to around 70000, providing a space of 1000 points. Shipan led the students to layout simultaneously, 68968→69869, securing 901 points and pocketing thirty-one thousand in profit. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 📈 Why has Bitcoin recently rebounded?
BTC's rise is the result of several factors:
• 🇺🇸 The U.S. Treasury increased bond buybacks, which supported liquidity and improved risk appetite.
• 💥 Massive Short position liquidations caused a Short Squeeze, pushing the price higher.
• 🏦 Continued inflows into Bitcoin ETF funds supported institutional demand.
• 📊 Breaking key resistance levels boosted momentum.
The question now: Will the rise continue or will we see a correction? 👀
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoMarket #BTCBreaks69000 #BitcoinNews #Trading #CryptoTrading #ETF #FOMC #Bullish #OKXThe contrast is sharper than the headline: OpenAI’s reported Q2 revenue rose about 18% to $6.7B, yet its operating loss widened to roughly $12.3B. Over the same period, Anthropic reportedly reached around $11.6B in revenue, more than doubling from Q1, with a small adjusted operating profit.
My read is that a potential OpenAI listing in 2027 would be judged less on growth alone and more on whether compute-heavy expansion can produce credible operating leverage. For now, the comparison is informative but incomplete, since neither company’s figures come from audited public filings.
#OpenAIQ2LossWidensThe Fed's Hidden Battle Behind the 9-to-3 Vote: Why Are the Three Dissenting Votes for a Rate Hike More Deadly Than Expectations of a Rate Cut?
The recently released July FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve have poured a bucket of cold water on financial markets still reveling in rate cut euphoria.
On the surface, the 9-to-3 vote to keep rates unchanged suggests that the dovish camp still firmly holds the mainstream narrative. But if you carefully review nearly thirty years of Fed decisions, you’ll find a highly dangerous anomaly: at the tail end of a high-rate cycle, three Fed officials openly cast dissenting votes supporting a 25 basis point rate hike.
Such an internal, public policy split is extremely rare since Powell took the helm of the Fed.
Many find it puzzling—recent CPI has been falling consecutively, and nonfarm payrolls and wage growth are steadily slowing—so why do these three hawkish officials insist on pushing for a rate hike despite the widespread disapproval?
The answer lies in the Fed’s deep-seated fear of "second-round inflation stickiness."
What these officials worry about is not the current surface-level prices but the core services inflation excluding housing (Supercore Inflation). In today’s U.S. labor market, although initial jobless claims have risen, structural labor shortages continue to support core service costs. If the Fed prematurely compromises and sends strong signals of rate cuts, it risks triggering a premature, retaliatory easing of financial conditions, directly replaying the second-round inflation nightmare from before Volcker’s era in the 1970s.
Policy disagreements often inflict more subtle and prolonged damage on capital markets, especially crypto assets, than direct rate hikes.
First, it completely shatters the market’s unilateral fantasy of a smooth decline in risk-free rates by September. With the three dissenting votes for hikes constraining Powell, it will be difficult for him to decisively pivot at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, passively extending the "Higher for Longer" window.
Second, policy uncertainty directly drives up the MOVE Index (interest rate volatility). This means that whether it’s the U.S. stock market or Bitcoin, without fresh liquidity inflows, neither can sustain healthy one-way trends and will instead be repeatedly pulled back and forth by every subtle macroeconomic data fluctuation.
Facing ongoing Fed official dissent, my own trading rhythm is very clear: firmly reject the black-and-white rate cut bull market fantasy.
On macro signals, I don’t try to guess which month the Fed will cut rates; instead, I focus on two hard indicators: one, whether the long-end Treasury term premium continues to widen; two, whether the supercore inflation month-over-month shows consecutive stagnation.
As long as internal Fed divisions remain unresolved, any sharp market rally is likely a liquidity-driven trap in a zero-sum game. Managing spot positions carefully and refusing to blindly leverage to bet on macro turning points, preserving principal in a choppy market, is far more valuable than frequently predicting Fed vote outcomes.
After the public 9-to-3 rate hike dissent, do you think the Fed might suddenly hike rates in September? In this volatile macro environment, is your current position defensive and watchful, or are you actively accumulating on dips?
---
The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Where exactly did OKB lose this round?
It took two weeks to pull from 85 to 107. Then the official team released a “positive news,” and OKB immediately dropped 6 points.
It’s the usual buy on expectations, sell on facts, I admit. But some things must be said:
Zakk said “combo moves in mid-August,” and today is already Wednesday. What have we got? One Boost expansion, a 1.25 million DOS reward pool, a few hundred thousand dollars—what’s that supposed to do?
What about the promised RWA incentives, TVL subsidies, new assets, new applications? Not a single one in sight.
It’s not that nothing was done, but every time it’s half a beat behind the market, and the intensity is far less than expected. By the time the benefits actually land, it’ll be too late.
Boss Xu said “real assets, long-term value,” which is true, but crypto is a battlefield of sentiment. If you’re slow, hot money goes to Solana, to Base—who’s going to wait for you?
I haven’t sold yet, but I’ve set a bottom line for myself: if OKB can’t hold 102 by this Friday, or if the official team hasn’t taken substantial action, I’ll cut losses and exit, no more running alongside.
It’s not that I don’t believe in X Layer’s RWA path, but retail investors’ patience and money are limited.
OKX, you can be steady, but don’t let “steady” turn into “dragging.” Drag it out too long, and people will be gone.
$OKB Four dimensions, a clear overview
1. Price action: violent surge, hitting strong resistance
Bitcoin briefly touched $70,000 before pulling back, currently fluctuating around $69,500. $70,000 is a key short-term battleground—breaking through targets $73,000-$75,000, while rejection requires a pullback for confirmation.
2. Technicals: severe overbought, needs correction
The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI have both surged above 85 into extreme overbought territory. After a sharp rise, the market needs to digest profits through a pullback. The first support lies between $68,200-$67,200; if broken, it will retest the previous consolidation range.
3. Market structure: leverage-driven, not a spot bull run
· Short positions closed in a single day reached $1.44 billion, with a short-to-long close ratio of about 8.6:1
· Coinbase premium index remains negative, indicating that demand in the US spot market has not truly returned
· Glassnode on-chain model indicates BTC is still in the “capitulation phase”; until the realized profit-loss ratio surpasses 2, any rebound is just a local rally
4. Macro drivers: policy catalysts, not fundamental improvements
The direct trigger is the US Treasury’s announcement to double long-term bond repurchase size, combined with Trump meeting crypto industry executives to push regulatory legislation. This is a pulse from improved external liquidity expectations, not a fundamental change within the Bitcoin ecosystem.
$BTC #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ Why is Bitcoin rising? $BTC
The reason is not cryptocurrency.
Listen, I'll write it in order:
1. The U.S. Treasury doubled the size of bond repurchases. Each operation increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion.
2. The target is 10-30 year bonds. The government is repurchasing its longest-term debt.
3. The reason is as follows: the 30-year yield reached a 19-year h. When government debt yields are this high, no one wants to take risks.#FOMC9To3Split #BTCBreaks69000 #XiaomiQ2Earnings $CORE market alternates rebounds, most coins recover and rise, but only CORE remains stagnant, repeatedly missing out on market gains.
Holders watch opportunities slip away round after round, each rebound quickly fizzles out, hopes continuously dashed, and a sense of powerlessness accumulates.
No amount of complaints or venting can change the cold reality of the market.
A massive amount of trapped positions loom overhead; even slight rallies trigger heavy selling pressure, firmly capping upward space. Various narratives are released in turn, but few truly materialize or bring incremental capital; the ecosystem lacks a self-sustaining foundation, and long-term weak oscillation has become the norm.
Every time new news emerges, it sparks hopes for a turnaround, but the outcome remains a rise followed by a fall. Expectations are continuously overdrawn, and obsession deepens.
The market will not compromise for emotions; the trend is determined by capital flows and tangible results. Without substantial fundamental improvement, no amount of complaints can break the current deadlock.
The market's upward windows are missed repeatedly; can mere obsession really wait for a market reversal?
⚠️This is only a personal market review and discussion, not investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please make decisions rationally. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #
Currently, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, with the 10-year yield staying elevated, and short-term bonds also offering attractive returns.
Institutions are not lacking funds but hold more comfortable alternatives: they can obtain certain risk-free returns without enduring the intense volatility of the crypto market.
This is BTC's current dilemma.
The long-term narrative still holds: non-sovereign asset, fixed supply, digital gold, hedge against fiscal deficits.
But in the short term, a practical question arises: why must capital enter the market now?
Short-term bond yields are attractive, and U.S. dollar liquidity shows no obvious easing, so institutions naturally remain cautious and won’t rush to aggressively invest.
However, this does not mean BTC’s long-term logic is impaired.
High interest rates suppress coin prices in the short term but will amplify U.S. fiscal debt pressure in the long run. The cost of servicing debt keeps rising, and the market will gradually question the sustainability of high rates.
BTC fears a high interest rate environment but can benefit from the debt risks exposed by high rates.
The current awkward situation is the result of a tug-of-war between short-term trading logic and long-term allocation logic.
In comparison, $ETH’s situation is more challenging.
Staking yields were a major highlight for ETH, but high U.S. Treasury yields create a direct comparison.
If U.S. Treasuries can reliably provide returns, why would institutions take on ETH’s price volatility risk?
Therefore, ETH’s repeated consolidation around 1900 is not entirely an ecological issue but a matter of yield comparison disadvantage.
Only when real interest rates fall will on-chain staking yields regain attractiveness.
So when observing BTC and ETH, don’t just focus on whether the price can break through.
BTC is waiting for signals of easing in U.S. Treasuries, with the macro hedge narrative being repriced by the market;
ETH is waiting for an improved yield comparison environment, with on-chain finance regaining capital favor.
Without a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, it will be difficult for these two major coins to experience a very smooth major rally.
$BTC Whenever tensions rise in the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin gets stuck around 64,000 and can't break through. This market situation is more fragile than expected. Have you noticed that even though there is clearly buying support, the price refuses to give a clear direction? This state of "someone is supporting the bottom but no one is lifting the price" is actually the most frustrating. Today, at the White House crypto summit, the market verbally says it doesn't care, but hands are honest—volatility is so low it feels like everyone is just waiting for the meeting to end. My personal feeling is that it's not a lack of news now, but a lack of a reason for everyone to bet simultaneously. The macro narrative drowns out all other noise; translated, this means the market is watching the Fed's mood, not the candlestick charts. Let's break down the current structure: - BTC is repeatedly testing around 64K; there is indeed strong buying support below, but selling pressure above is also heavy. Both bulls and bears are betting the other side will give up first at this level. - ETH is holding at 1.9K, relatively weaker than BTC but showing no signs of collapse, more like a follower waiting for BTC to choose a direction first. - The conflict premium in the Strait of Hormuz has already been partially priced in. What hasn't been factored in yet is how the dollar and US Treasury yields will move if the situation suddenly eases—that will be the real variable affecting risk asset pricing. What is the market actually trading now? I believe it's a tug-of-war between "recession expectations" and "rate cut expectations." If geopolitical tensions cool down and yields fall, BTC and ETH are likely to try to push higher, as suppressed risk appetite needs an outlet. But on the flip side, if recession fears deepen, the first reaction of capital is to withdraw from risk assets, not to seek refuge in crypto.