wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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Jensen Huang came out today saying: Memory will not be oversupplied by 2029.
You have to take this with a grain of salt. The seller of shovels endorsing the gold diggers naturally has a vested interest; the more memory is snapped up, the more valuable his GPU ecosystem becomes. I'm not saying he's lying, but the optimism of an interested party should be weighted down.
What’s more worth pondering is the timing. The true bottom never needs a big shot to come out and soothe emotions; precisely when the market starts to feel shaky and someone needs to shout to steady the scene, such statements start to flood out. Supportive talk is not a bottom signal; it’s a sign that sentiment hasn’t bottomed yet.
What should be noted today is not which index fell by how much, but that the top smart money is openly clashing.
Griffin from Castle Securities publicly declared that AI is in a bubble, while Gray from Blackstone immediately countered, saying demand is "almost parabolic growth" and there's nothing to worry about. Two people managing trillions, looking at the same market, yet reaching completely opposite conclusions.
The biggest illusion for retail investors is thinking there is a standard answer to this kind of thing. At the table, I've seen too many people push all their chips in at once just because they firmly believe "I'm definitely right." The ones who truly survive are those who always leave room in their minds for "I might be wrong." Don't rush to take sides; watch whose money breaks first.
Today, keep an eye on a neglected corner: copper prices fell again this week, marking the third weekly decline in four weeks.
Many people think the AI cooldown only hits Nvidia and memory, but if you trace upstream, you'll understand that data centers need electricity, and the power grid needs copper. Copper has become the most honest shadow of AI demand. Its decline doesn't reflect risk-off sentiment; it genuinely signals a contraction in demand expectations.
This is a different story from the recent sharp drops in gold and silver: gold and silver fell due to deleveraging and forced liquidations, while copper's drop indicates some are starting to doubt whether those data centers will actually get built. Industrial metals never engage in narratives; they only respond to orders.
This morning I cashed out the short position from the AI bubble wave, and now I basically have no positions. It's not that I'm not bearish, but the bond market has already made the point clear for me.
The global corporate bond spread surged to 129 basis points today, the highest since May 2025, and the spread on high-grade Asian USD bonds also hit a new one-year high. Stock prices can still be propped up by sentiment, but credit spreads cannot; this is where real money is pricing "debt-financed AI spending."
The stock market debates daily whether there is a bubble, but the bond market has quietly tightened the purse strings long ago. I'm not in a hurry to reopen positions; I'll hold cash and wait for it to reveal the answer. $BTC
There's another detail worth noting today: the world's largest gold ETF reduced its holdings by nearly twelve tons in one day, and silver even plunged over 5% intraday yesterday.
Many people's first reaction is—how can safe-haven assets fall? This is precisely the key to this market cycle.
When gold, silver, tech stocks, and $BTC all drop together, the market isn't selling based on views about any particular asset; it's indiscriminately deleveraging and converting back to cash. This isn't risk aversion; it's deleveraging. During risk aversion, gold prices rise; during deleveraging, even gold gets sold to meet margin calls.
It's important to distinguish these two types of declines: in the former, you can shelter in gold; in the latter, you can only shelter in cash and stay out of the market. We are in the latter now. So my largest position these days is called "no position."
Tonight, keep an eye on a number that hasn't trended: Japan's core CPI for September is 2.1%, exceeding the central bank's target, the first time since the end of last year.
What does this mean? The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has risen significantly. Many people wonder what Japan's rate hike has to do with $BTC? It matters a lot.
One of the hidden fuels for global risk assets in recent years has been the yen carry trade—borrowing yen at almost zero cost to buy US stocks, crypto, and everything else. Once Japan truly enters a rate hike cycle, this tap will gradually tighten.
This isn't a bearish factor that will crash the market tomorrow; it's the kind of subtle undercurrent you don't notice day-to-day but realize in hindsight that liquidity levels have been steadily dropping. In a deleveraging environment, this fundamental change in liquidity is far more valuable than a breaking news flash from the Middle East.
The storage narrative cracked open another gap today, but hardly anyone looked up.
SK Hynix just announced it is abandoning the plan for its flash memory subsidiary Solidigm to go public in the U.S., and has also suspended the pre-IPO fundraising process. The official reason is that Korean regulators are worried about "dual listing" and diluting minority shareholders. But if you trace it back: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were already set as underwriters, and the deal was pulled at the last moment.
When a sector is hottest, companies scramble to spin off and cash out through IPOs. Now, stepping on the brakes voluntarily shows that management itself isn’t confident about this valuation window.
Retail investors have been shouting "storage bottomed out" for four days straight, but I only watch how the company votes with its feet. Talking bullish is one thing; putting real money on the line by going public is another.
Today’s intraday candle is clear: $BTC touched 84,000 in the morning, then slid back to just over 81,000 by close, and $ETH simply broke below 2,400. Two days of rebound, and on the third day the true nature is revealed.
My portfolio is basically empty, not rushing to move a single position. People always ask me why I don’t take advantage of the rebound to buy in or add to shorts. Anyone who plays cards understands one principle: not every hand is worth playing. Most of the time, the best move is to fold and watch others give away money to each other.
In a deleveraging market, with big swings and messy directions, that’s exactly where your principal is most easily worn down. I’d rather miss a few points than repeatedly enter and exit amid the noise. Itching to trade is the most expensive disease for retail investors.
