The longer I trade, the more I feel that patience is a seriously underestimated edge. In this kind of short squeeze pulse, people ask me every day, "Can I enter now?" My answer is basically "No." Next week’s Jackson Hole and Walsh’s debut will be the real judges of this market move. Those who use up all their bullets before a big event often find themselves with no cards to play when the real opportunity arrives. First think about surviving, then think about winning — I’ve believed this for many years.

Dalio came out saying "reduce bonds, allocate 10–15% of your position to gold" to hedge against the US debt crisis. For such big players' views, just listen to the framework, don't copy the position size—he manages hundreds of billions in long-duration allocations, while you and I are using leverage to bet on direction intraday, which is completely different. What you can really copy is never the target, but the discipline. Being willing to buy when the market is fearful and willing to stay out when greedy—these two things are more valuable than any "allocation advice." In this wave of greed, do you dare to stay out?

The fear and greed index has swung back to greed, and the comment section is once again neatly filled with "bull return" posts. To be blunt: in a market that gains 24 points in a week but volume doesn't pick up, the ones excited are mostly those who just jumped in recently. The fuel for the short squeeze is the shorts' stop-loss orders, not the trend. Once these squeezed shorts cover and the bulls who took over start trampling each other, you'll see who's swimming naked. Don't make your heaviest decisions when emotions are at their peak.

A whole week of short squeezes, $BTC +24%, almost touched 80,000 intraday. Here's something that might be unpopular: chasing shorts or longs now is basically just giving money away to others. My strategy is low-frequency, large bets; this kind of vertical surge is definitely not a scenario where I'd place heavy bets. Holding an empty position, sipping tea, and watching others get forcibly liquidated inside is the most comfortable spot. Anyone who plays cards knows—getting a good hand doesn't mean you have to play it; folding is what makes a long-term winner. Reopening shorts? Wait for momentum to fade, wait for a lower high, no rush.

I was bearish so I stayed out, it doesn't matter, shorting didn't lose much money. But the target guy saw the trend reversal, then stayed out and shorted again. If the long position hadn't moved, he could have made about 1 billion at most. Now his mindset must be very explosive. I understand how you feel, brother @Jason60704294. Take a break and then get back to it!

Brothers are all very scarce

The longer I trade, the more I believe in one saying: first think about surviving, then think about winning. In these kinds of +8% overnight short squeezes, the first to get out are often not those who guessed the direction wrong, but those with positions too heavy who can't hold until their view plays out. You can be bearish on $BTC, but if you max out leverage and set your stop loss too tight, a single spike will wash you out—what good is being right about the direction then? I'd rather have a small position with a wide stop loss to ensure I survive until the catalyst arrives. Position management isn't about being timid; it's about giving yourself the chance to be there for the payoff.

Explain a trading principle using Texas Hold'em poker. You have a hand AK, very strong, right? But if your position is bad and there are heavy bets ahead, often the correct play is to fold. It's the same in trading: even if the direction is right (for example, I know this is a short squeeze and it will eventually reverse), if the current entry position, timing, and odds are not favorable, you should hold your hand and wait for a better position to enter. Retail traders lose money not because of bad cards, but because good cards are played in bad positions. For $BTC, this point is a bad position for shorts—patience has its odds.

Next week's Jackson Hole is the real judge of this market move. This kind of pulse rally is essentially the restlessness before a major event, with both bulls and bears betting on the central bank's words. My experience is: don't fully load your position or use full leverage to guess the direction before a big event; save your ammunition and emotions for the moment the cards are revealed. Trading is like playing cards—the most costly mistake isn't misreading the cards, but going all-in before all the information is in. No matter how strong $BTC rallies, I prefer to wait for that decisive candle to close. What signal do you think it will give this time?

Seeing $BTC surge to 74K overnight, a bunch of people messaged me asking, "Is it time to heavily short?" To be blunt: overbought conditions have never been a reason to short; momentum exhaustion is. Prices can stay overbought and keep rising for three days during a short squeeze phase. If you add shorts against the trend halfway up, averaging your price higher, you're just feeding bullets to the market. My low-frequency, large-stake strategy prefers to miss the first half and wait until it can't push higher, forms a lower high, and volume divergence appears before taking action. I'm not worried about direction; timing is what matters. Are you the type to rush to catch the top, or the type who can wait?