诸葛投研✊
诸葛投研✊
17年进圈，9年web3老玩家，券商原持牌投顾。合约爆过仓，现在只玩主流币现货，向段永平看齐。
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Why is AI being devalued?
Oil prices rise → inflation expectations increase → global risk assets get devalued. AI is the sector with the largest gains and the most severe valuation bubble this year, so it’s dropping sharply. This post discusses 3 AI tokens: $TAO, $FET, $RENDER
TAO actually produces output. Bittensor breaks AI work into subnetworks, miners provide models, and only good work gets tokens. It has the most solid fundamentals among the three.
TAO current price is 260.5, already at a new low, with all three moving averages above the price (MA7 266, MA20 278, MA30 288). Fortunately, RSI is 43.4, indicating the decline hasn’t accelerated yet; only if it breaks 252.6 will the drop be considered accelerated.
FET is the most speculative, merged into the ASI alliance to build AI agent infrastructure, with a market cap of 500 million, but its real-world adoption lags far behind the narrative, and the agent is not yet established.
FET current price is 0.1875, just 5% above the 30-day low of 0.1783. RSI is 39.8, and the MA20 at 0.2124 is only 13% above the current price.
RENDER offers decentralized GPU rendering, with increasing AI inference tasks running there, making its demand more solid than TAO and FET.
RENDER current price is 1.787, positioned at 18% within the 30-day range, RSI 45.5 is also the best among the three tokens. Although RENDER has a daily volatility of 6.9%, the structure is not broken.
This time I got a bit tricked by $OKB, bought quite a lot, but it kept dropping, and the rebound wasn't as good as $BNB:
OKB's success is due to regulation; X Layer's scenario expanded from crypto to US stocks, aiming to be the US stock settlement layer, betting on stricter regulation.
But its failure is also due to regulation; the SEC might classify OKB as an unregistered security, which is why OKX deliberately limits OKB's empowerment.
OKB's three moving averages (MA7 113.9, MA20 120.7, MA30 120.7) are all above the price, and the 30-day low of 110 is near today's low of 110.1, basically walking along the bottom of the range. RSI is only 40.9, indicating weakness.
Hyperliquid also wants to comply; last week it submitted five suggestions to the SEC to exclude airdrops and programmed buyback burns from the securities definition.
But unfortunately, the trend is not on $HYPE; RSI 35.2 is the lowest among the three coins, and the price is also near the 30-day low of 76.15. Although it hasn't dropped much this week, the daily average volatility narrowed to 3.3%, indicating no one is paying attention, and it will likely continue a low-volume decline.
BNB is still consistently building its ecosystem and public chain. The current price is 738.5, the only one among the three coins above MA7 (729.5), RSI 46.1 is near the midpoint, and the 30-day range position is 31.4%; structurally, it is in a recovery consolidation but has yet to break through MA20 (744.4).
+50.16%
Snapshot at Oct 22, 2026, 18:44
Institutions are also retail investors; in the first three days when $BTC was rising sharply, they bought aggressively, totaling 1.07 billion, but when the market dropped yesterday, they cut losses and ran off with 380 million.
80,000 is the last defensive line for BTC bulls. The three moving averages (MA7 82168, MA20 82866, MA30 83303) are all above the price and arranged in a bearish sequence. Under this structure, if 83,000 cannot be reclaimed, it will just be a rhythm of oscillating downward.
ETH's ETF is too weak. This week BTC has recovered 700 million, but it is still in a net outflow state of 140 million. Basically, it can be abandoned this month.
$ETH's rebound this time can't even reclaim MA7 (2421), which is 3.4% lower than MA20 (2497); RSI 38.4 is the lowest among the three coins; the 30-day price range position is 21%, also the weakest among the three coins.
$ZEC's trend is actually good; the structure is not broken yet, currently in the bottoming phase. Looking back today, it has already risen 100 times from last year until now, which is amazing!
ZEC surged and then pulled back yesterday, but the price still stands firm above MA7 (1193) and MA20 (1222), the only one among the three coins that hasn't broken the mid-term moving averages. Its 30-day range is from 1048 to 1697, with a width of about 62%; with the same stop-loss distance, its volatility is several times that of BTC.
+23.59%
Snapshot at Oct 23, 2026, 11:11
Saudi Arabia was hit by Houthi drones, Brent crude reached a new high of $113 this year, so inflation expectations have returned, and the probability of a rate hike before the end of the year has risen to 87%.
The crypto market got hit along with the Nasdaq, and the liquidation direction has also reversed. Last night, out of $465 million in liquidations, $427 million were long positions, with 103,000 people liquidated.
The ETF situation is even more ironic: the $BTC spot ETF saw inflows of $1.07 billion over three days, with $528 million on Wednesday alone, yet the price dropped from 85,000 to 81,000.
Money is coming in but can't push the price up, indicating that sell orders are more urgent than buy orders. Two key levels for BTC to watch: the mid-term holders' cost is 86,700, a major resistance level; below that, 80,000 is the cost zone for ETFs and treasury companies, and if this zone is lost, it will likely head straight to 75,000.
The $ETH ETF finally saw some return money, with a net inflow of $14.9 million yesterday. Technically, RSI is 35.4, MA20 at 2495 is pressing from above, and the 200-day moving average at 2302 is the last line of defense. Today's low of 2360 has already touched the doorstep.
For $ZEC, out of the $13 million liquidations last night, shorts accounted for 76%, but in the last hour, it reversed with longs making up 95%. Even more intense, a giant whale short took a $35 million loss to close out.
RSI is 44.9, MA20 at 1222 is right underfoot, and MA30 at 1302 is the ceiling.
+25.09%
Snapshot at Oct 22, 2026, 18:39
The story of the overlooked trio $STRK, $NEAR, and $BCH is even more thrilling than today's market's simultaneous long and short explosion.
STRK: It soared directly on voting day, with futures volume reaching 890 million, eight times that of the spot market.
However, today it dropped another 13% to 0.0546, accumulating a 7-day loss of 43%. The price is below all moving averages, with 17% more room to fall before reaching MA60 (0.0451). Volume has shrunk to half of the previous 20 days. The aftershocks of the crash are not over yet; this kind of one-sided sell-off means catching the falling knife on the left side is like giving away money.
NEAR: Previously suffered a hacker incident but managed to contain it, and the security incident actually preserved trust.
NEAR rose 6% yesterday to 5.39, then dropped back today to 4.959 (-7.3%). One bearish candle wiped out MA5, MA10, and MA30 (around 4.97). RSI at 52.8 is still intact, and MA60 (3.73) is supporting from afar, a typical rise and fall pattern. The 4.85 area is the support level for the past three days.
BCH's 274.3 price exactly hit MA60 (274.3), not a penny off. This is the last of its five moving averages left; MA5, MA10, and MA20 (276-286) are all overhead. RSI is neutral at 48.4, down 20% in 30 days. If this MA60 breaks, the next support is a vacuum zone from 256 directly down to 213.
There was just news saying: an institution exchanged 1917 $BTC entirely for $ETH, and someone in the group shouted that Ethereum is about to take off 😂
Actually, don't be misled by the news; this is just an isolated case. 150 million USD sounds impressive, but in the ETH ETF pool, it's just a small ripple.
Because last week, ETH ETF had a net outflow of 350 million USD, and the total outflow in the previous three weeks was even 1 billion USD. This giant whale's buying volume can't reverse the trend against the institutions' selling pressure.
So don't say BTC's trend will be worse than ETH's. BTC just broke through recently, only fell out of the box today, and the MA60 is still supporting it from below. Although it broke below 82200 (MA10), it held at 81268 (MA60).
Meanwhile, ETH no longer has any moving averages to rely on, RSI is already at 39.8, entering oversold territory.
Moreover, the divergence rates between the two differ a lot: BTC is only 1.9% away from MA20, easily reachable with any bullish candle; ETH is 4.7% away from MA20, and the rebound still has to overcome two small hurdles at MA5 and MA10. #ETF买盘持续回流，BTC为何仍未走强？
The battle for L2 has long been about more than just TPS. The three chains $ARB, $OP, and $POL compete to see who can truly implement payments and adoption:
ARB leads in TVL and transaction volume. Arbitrum One has locked $3 billion, with 4 million daily transactions, boasting the thickest DeFi foundation.
Technically: today it fell back below the cluster of moving averages, with resistance at 0.188-0.190 where MA5, MA10, and MA20 converge. Fortunately, MA60 (0.170) below provides a buffer, indicating a break of short-term support but no decisive breakdown.
OP uses public goods to build its ecosystem. Optimism pursues Superchain and retrospective public goods funding, with $2 billion locked and 2.8 million daily transactions.
OP has retraced 25% from the 20-day high of 0.1625 and is currently resting on MA60 (0.1177). This is the last moving average; if it breaks below, the next support is at 0.1.
POL is focused on payments. Polygon recently acquired Coinme to establish a licensed payment platform in the US, with stablecoin transfers exceeding $3 trillion cumulatively, supporting tens of millions of payments per second on-chain, and has also partnered with TRON.
POL is the worst off, having fallen below all five moving averages, with an RSI of 39.3—the lowest among the three—and volume shrunk to 50% of the past 20 days. There is no buying support, no rebound, a classic late-stage downtrend pattern.
This trend is toxic. I originally thought the bull market would continue, but it turned out to be a double liquidation of longs and shorts, really screwing everyone over!
Originally, after $BTC rose for 3 consecutive days, it matched my previous judgment that it would break out of the triangle zone. Plus, the macro environment had improved, so I thought the bull market would continue.
But today BTC liquidated 166 million, with longs accounting for 95 million, or 60%. In the morning, shorts were squeezed, but in the afternoon the price dropped from 84,900 to 82,000, breaking through four moving averages from MA60 (83,368) to MA5 (82,460). All the ones getting hit were leveraged long positions chasing the price.
ETH also liquidated 90 million. In the morning, shorts were the majority, but now longs account for 55%. It fell to 2,400 in the afternoon, and all liquidations were longs.
It couldn't even hold MA5 at 2,428. All five moving averages from MA5 (2,428) to MA60 (2,568) are pressing down from above. RSI at 40.8 is approaching oversold. It steadily declined to 2,395 today without any decent rebound, and it might continue to break below the 20-day low of 2,317.
ZEC is a bit better because it didn't fall much, so there weren't many liquidations in the afternoon. Of the 17 million liquidated, shorts still account for 55%.
The surge from 1,048 to 1,368 in the morning did indeed stand above MA5 at 1,185, MA10 at 1,211, and MA20 at 1,227. Unfortunately, it just missed breaking MA30 at 1,315.
+25.09%
Snapshot at Oct 22, 2026, 18:39
Why has this wave of $ZEC performed so well, significantly outperforming $ETH and even $BTC?
Because in the past two months, it has just been part of the privacy coin narrative. Since it launched the US spot ETF in August, both institutional long-term funds and market speculative funds have been buying it.
Moreover, its chip structure is very thin, so even a bit of buying pressure can push it up sharply.
ZEC is currently the only mainstream coin with an upward trend. It has now risen above MA5, MA10, and MA20 (1185-1227), with an RSI of 51, slightly bullish, and a 7-day increase of 7.4%, leading the pack. However, it was pushed back from 1368 today, and MA30 is still pressing down overhead, so it probably won't break through.
But ETH is indeed too weak, having just dropped from the high of 2526. MA10, MA20, MA30, and MA60 (2437-2568) are all pressing down, forming a bearish alignment. RSI is 40.8, close to the oversold boundary, with the next defense line at the 20-day low of 2317.
BTC is also weak, having fallen back to 82,000, breaking below the previously held MA5, MA10, MA20, and MA30, with only MA60 at 81,279 still supporting the bottom. RSI is 48.1, right at the midpoint. This rebound is clearly over...#ETF买盘持续回流，BTC为何仍未走强？
+9.77%
Snapshot at Oct 22, 2026, 18:12
