Orbit Post Sitemap
ETH short position about 259 million, BTC short position about 214 million, held by the same address.
Hyperliquid public position scan (around the evening of October 19): address 0x5b5d…c060 currently holds 106,350 ETH shorts at 5x leverage, nominally about 259 million USD, average opening price about 2323, unrealized loss about 12 million USD; BTC shorts of 2,585 at 5x leverage, nominally about 214 million USD, average opening price about 76205, unrealized loss about 17.1 million USD. The two nominal positions total about 473 million, with unrealized losses totaling about 29.1 million. At the time of writing, BTC is about 82752, ETH about 2434.
In my view: these two are currently the largest ETH and BTC shorts on the market combined in the same address, aligned in direction, but the unrealized losses are already significant. Going forward, they will either rely on time to wear down or actively cut positions.
Do you bet that they will continue to hold this large short position, or cut positions first to realize about 29.1 million in unrealized losses?
Stay tuned, I will continue writing if there are changes in these top short positions.
$ETH $BTC 4 months after going public, SpaceX has already ridden the roller coaster and will deliver its first full report tomorrow.🚀
After market close on 10-20, SpaceX will release its Q3 earnings report, the first full quarterly report since going public.
Expected EPS is $0.14 (compared to a loss of $0.09 last quarter), with revenue of $12.9 billion (+65%).
Interestingly, the stock price dropped 10.6% last week, breaking below the 50-day moving average, indicating expectations had already been priced in.
Evercore raised its price target to $275 last week, bullish on AI and Starlink.
But the real test comes after the earnings report: 1.31 billion shares will be unlocked, with chips locked for 180 days coming to market.
However, after the first unlock in August, the stock price actually rose 35%, and with JPMorgan estimating $12.4 billion in passive buying (recalculated for Nasdaq 100 weighting), a sell-off might not be strong enough to push the price down.
My judgment: no bets before the earnings. Only an earnings beat plus a smooth unlock will mark a turning point.
SPCX closed at $146.03 on Friday; at 146, there are stories both up and down.
xStocks is rushing to subscribe to SpaceX shares, how many did you get?
$SPCX
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Unitree Robotics, a stock that has been halved since its IPO, finally showed some movement with a sharp rebound after two months of continuous decline. The question is whether this is just a bottom bounce or a true reversal.
Frankly, the current valuation is still too high. For a toy robot company like this, the current price is all bubble.
Today's big bullish candle looks more like an oversold rebound after a heavy drop.
A 16% rise looks impressive, but the moving averages are still in a bearish alignment. The $70–72 resistance is obvious; the price hit $72 today and then pulled back. A real reversal requires strong volume and a stable close above $70; if it falls back to $65–66 and can't hold, this rally could easily turn into a "one-day wonder."
The capital flow is also a bit shaky: turnover rate is nearly 22%, with almost a quarter of the shares changing hands in one day. This looks more like trapped investors selling on good news and short-term funds coming in to gamble, rather than big players slowly building positions.
The valuation remains expensive. From $155 down to $60, more than halved, with a price-to-earnings ratio still over 300 times. The big bubble from the IPO day is still being digested. Non-GAAP profits dropped 19% in the first half of the year, and the old problem of revenue growth without profit growth remains unresolved. The average institutional target price is around $68; today's close at $70 means the upside space is mostly capped.
So my view: there is support around $60, but whether $66–70 can be reclaimed is uncertain. Going forward, watch three things: whether $65–66 breaks, whether volume can support a stable close above $70–72, and whether the non-GAAP profit in the Q3 report on October 29 shows improvement. Until these three signals appear, treat this as a rebound, not a reversal; don't get carried away.
$UNITREE Unitree Robotics, a stock that has been halved since its IPO, finally showed some movement with a sharp rebound after two months of continuous decline. The question is whether this is just a bottom bounce or a true reversal.
Frankly, the current valuation is still too high. For a toy robot company like this, the current price is all bubble.
Today's big bullish candle looks more like an oversold rebound after a heavy drop.
A 16% rise looks impressive, but the moving averages are still in a bearish alignment. The $70–72 resistance is obvious; the price hit $72 today and then pulled back. A real reversal requires strong volume and a stable close above $70; if it falls back to $65–66 and can't hold, this rally could easily turn into a "one-day wonder."
The capital flow is also a bit shaky: turnover rate is nearly 22%, with almost a quarter of the shares changing hands in one day. This looks more like trapped investors selling on good news and short-term funds coming in to gamble, rather than big players slowly building positions.
The valuation remains expensive. From $155 down to $60, more than halved, with a price-to-earnings ratio still over 300 times. The big bubble from the IPO day is still being digested. Non-GAAP profits dropped 19% in the first half of the year, and the old problem of revenue growth without profit growth remains unresolved. The average institutional target price is around $68; today's close at $70 means the upside space is mostly capped.
So my view: there is support around $60, but whether $66–70 can be reclaimed is uncertain. Going forward, watch three things: whether $65–66 breaks, whether volume can support a stable close above $70–72, and whether the non-GAAP profit in the Q3 report on October 29 shows improvement. Until these three signals appear, treat this as a rebound, not a reversal; don't get carried away.
$UNITREE #MSCI新规冲击财库股，Strategy公开反对
The boss has something to say
We've talked about the MSCI new regulations before. Strategy openly opposes them, mainly because the exclusion criteria lack clear accounting basis and easily lead to subjective value judgments. The official exclusion hasn't happened yet; the final list will be released on November 11.
But there was a change in today's market. BTC rose 1.18%, MSTR rose 1.92%. The market wasn't scared by this negative news; instead, it is recovering. Why? Because Strategy itself said that index fund holdings only account for 3.1%, so the impact is limited. The $2.8 billion passive sell-off calculated by JPMorgan is an extreme assumption.
I think this is just an emotional disturbance, not a signal of trend reversal. Being excluded will cause short-term capital outflow pressure, but BTC's buying demand doesn't rely solely on index funds. If not excluded, the negative impact will be nullified and may even lead to a rebound.
Yesterday, I took profit on my 81900 short position at 80800. The 81800 long position I hold is still open, with a stop loss at 80500, first target at 84000, second target at 86000. Resistance above is between 84000 and 85000, support below at 80000. Reduce positions at targets, keep the rest at breakeven.
MSCI is a slow variable and doesn't affect short-term rhythm. BTC still follows macro trends. Don't chase highs or kill lows; set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Tron froze 39.27 million USDT overnight: Your private key, their authority. On Tron, 10 addresses holding about 39.27 million USDT were frozen by Tether all at once. The wallet balances are clearly visible, but not a single cent can be transferred out. The essence of this matter is not about the 39.27 million dollars, but that it exposes a fact all USDT holders must face: what you hold is a digital IOU issued by the issuer, and the final interpretation right lies with them. Why was it frozen? The official reason is not "undecided." Monitoring by SlowMist MistTrack points to a clear target: New Coin Guarantee, an illegal guarantee platform based on Telegram, which has handled transactions totaling about 24.2 billion dollars, described by blockchain analysis firm TRM Labs as one of Southeast Asia's largest illegal crypto markets. Previously, Tether had frozen funds related to Huiwang Guarantee; this time is a continuous crackdown on the same type of platform. From the perspective of law enforcement cooperation, this is a targeted compliance action, not an indiscriminate arbitrary freeze. But the problem lies in "how to freeze." The underlying smart contract of USDT hardcodes a blacklist function, with call permissions limited to Tether's multisig owner wallet. Once an address is blacklisted, the USDT on that address is locked at the contract level, cannot be transferred out, nor can it be called by any DeFi protocol. The entire process does not require a court search warrant as a prerequisite. There are cases showing that Tether has formally signed a US court search warrant.$CT rose 13.5% today — but the candlestick language tells you this wasn’t retail investors chasing in.
From late last night to early this morning, $CT traded sideways in a narrow range of 0.29–0.31 with low volume.
Then at 12:00 Beijing time today, the 4H chart suddenly showed an upper shadow: opened at 0.3693, peaked at 0.4054, then dropped all the way back to 0.3425.
This is a classic "testing the market + shakeout" pattern.
0.40 is above a historical high-volume trading zone with thick chip accumulation. The main force swept upwards — not really to push higher, but to probe the selling pressure above. Finding heavy sell orders, they immediately reversed and smashed down to 0.33, trapping all the short-term bulls who chased in.
But the real action is yet to come.
Those shaken out just stopped losses, and the main force started accumulating again between 0.33–0.34, then powered up to 0.36 at 17:30, with volume 40 times the average of early morning.
$CT’s 24h trading volume is $117M, a scale that retail investors can’t produce.
The main force has done a "test resistance - counterattack - re-accumulate" cycle at 0.40; today’s 13.5% rise is the second round of the rally. 0.40 is the next key resistance; only breaking through will open space.
What do you think the main force will do at the 0.40 level — a direct explosive rally or another shakeout? $CT $ETH Retake Exam: Plenty of Stories, But Not Enough Scores 📉
ETH has dropped over 5% again in the past 7 days, with ETH/BTC sliding to its lowest since mid-August. The issue isn't the narrative, but the marginal buying: US spot ETH ETFs have seen eight consecutive outflows, totaling over $600 million; after Bitmine nears its 5% supply cap, the most stable buying is about to stop; funding rates turned negative midweek, with shorts increasing their positions. Pectra, Fusaka, and staking merges are all progressing, but demand hasn't kept pace.
Trading isn't about stories, it's about relative performance: when the market is up, ETH rising along isn't strong; when the market is sideways, ETH hitting a top counts. It's too early to talk about a "catch-up rally" now. 🧮
$BTC is at 81,431, down less than 1.5% in 7 days, showing resilience; but last week spot ETFs had a net outflow of $681 million. The 400-day moving average supports the 81,000 level, and 82,000 must hold. Don't rush to measure others when your own ruler isn't steady. 📏
AAVE is at 151.9, up 6.58% in 30 days, showing an independent rhythm; V4 deposits rose from 232 million to 1.29 billion, but incentives and subsidies make up a significant portion, and value capture is still behind a DAO vote. It still fell nearly 7% in 7 days; business ≠ token. 🏦
The course ETH is failing: relative performance. The retake exam hasn't been submitted yet. 📝#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Crypto ETFs lost $1.2 billion in a single week, key focus on price resilience 🧐
Latest data shows weakening capital flow in US spot crypto ETFs:
📅 October 5 to 9
🔸 $BTC ETF: net outflow of $679 million
🔸 $ETH ETF: net outflow of $542 million
💸 Total net outflow: $1.221 billion
This data indicates that the incremental ETF funds that previously drove the market are currently withdrawing in the short term. Capital outflow amplifies selling pressure, but what deserves more attention is not "how much fled," but "how much price held up." 📉
If ETFs continue to bleed but Bitcoin does not hit new lows, or even gradually raises its lows, it suggests there may be other buyers in the market absorbing the selling pressure. 🧲
Conversely, if outflows continue to expand and the price breaks key support levels, short-term risks need to be reassessed. ⚠️
In short: capital flow tells us how much pressure there is, price reaction tells us how strong the market is. 🔍#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Today $ETH rose across the board with the overall market, but the "potential challenges" should not be underestimated.
ETF outflows reached 320 million this week, with a total of 1.77 billion outflows for both tokens over two weeks. Justin Sun sold 80-90% of ETH between $3600-4000 to shift into US stocks, large holders sold 886 coins on Hyperliquid and 35 million short positions were liquidated. On-chain staking withdrawals exceeded deposits, monthly supply increased by 86,000 coins, tokenized shares dropped to 22%, increasing selling pressure and competition.
Short-term funds are retreating, and whale reductions clearly show fragility, but the overall rise confirms underlying resilience. $BTC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ $ETH has been observing $BTC these past two days; we can't just focus on whether this rebound can hold, the core is still to watch the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy direction. The interest rate meeting is on October 28, and the market is quite divided on whether to continue raising rates, with expectations of another rate hike by year-end heating up.
The news is split into two camps: the hawkish camp believes inflation is not falling as expected and there is still room for rate hikes this year; another group of officials advocates caution, with all decisions to follow economic data. This internal division will amplify the short-term volatility of BTC and ETH.
On the capital side, BTC is clearly stronger than ETH. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $2.65 billion in September. Although the scale has recently declined, funds flowed back on October 13, ending 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows. This signal is worth continuous tracking.
One rebound is not enough to determine a trend reversal. For BTC, two points matter: whether the resistance level can be broken with volume, and whether buying support during the pullback phase is solid; for $ETH, it depends on whether ETF funds can recover and whether the ETH/BTC ratio can be repaired.
Two scenario simulations: if the Fed pauses rate hikes and funds continue to flow back, the market has a chance to slowly recover; but if inflation data again exceeds expectations and rate hike expectations rise, this round of rebound is likely to face pressure and fall back. $BTC $SOL $BTC $ETH $BNB
Many people think that as long as $BTC doesn't crash, they won't lose money.
It's not that simple.
$BTC is stable, but $ETH may not follow; even if $ETH follows, $BNB might not react. The overall market is just the backdrop; what really determines whether you make money or not are the coins you hold and your entry points.
Right now, the most uncomfortable are probably not those who are out of the market, but those holding weak coins waiting for a rebound. Watching $BTC stay strong while their positions remain stagnant makes them more and more anxious, and the more anxious they get, the more they want to switch positions—only to possibly switch into a trap.
$BTC is the anchor, $ETH depends on capital flow, $BNB depends on the platform ecosystem. They won't always move in sync; divergence is the norm.
Don't fool yourself by thinking the overall market is fine; only you know how your account is doing.Currently, I’m still bearish. I didn’t trade all morning today, but in the afternoon I couldn’t resist and opened a small short position on ETH to test the waters.
I opened the short around 2435, with staggered shorts placed at 2450, but the 2450 shorts haven’t been filled yet. The position isn’t large; I want to see how far this rebound can go first.
I want to say I’m not afraid of ETH rising— the more violently it rises, the harder it will fall. But on second thought, maybe not. If it rises sharply, it might keep going up, so I can’t just open shorts and assume every bullish candle is a bull trap.
For the short term, I’m treating 2430–2450 as an observation zone. The order placements don’t necessarily mean there’s resistance there. The key is to see if it can hold after pushing higher. If it repeatedly surges up then falls back and can’t hold 2450, I’d be more inclined to continue viewing the rebound as bearish.
Below, I’m watching 2400 first. If it falls to this level and someone buys in, I can’t be too greedy with shorts. If it breaks below and the rebound can’t recover, then I’ll see if there’s room to probe lower.
Conversely, if it breaks above 2450 with volume and the pullback can hold, then my short position’s rationale weakens and I’ll need to reassess. I can’t keep finding reasons to short while it keeps rising.
Right now, what I fear most is hesitation— if it drops a few points, I regret not opening more; if it rises a few points, I doubt opening too early. The market hasn’t moved far, but I’ve already traded in my mind a dozen times.
Today I’ll start with a small position to observe. I’ll try to trade less than twice today, so I don’t turn testing the waters into struggling underwater.The gateway is open, but the ledger still needs to be reviewed slowly (ง •_•)ง
On October 15, Ripple opened a new path for institutions: trading RWA perpetual swaps through Ripple Prime, referencing contracts on Trade.xyz via Hyperliquid. For $HYPE, this is more like a "business lead scorecard" rather than a short-term scorecard. Gateway open ≠ continuous usage ≠ revenue realization; HYPE’s price still has to move on its own. It has still dropped about 6% in the past week, and the market is clearly waiting for solid data (￣▽￣)~*
Regarding $XRP, the same announcement needs to be read carefully: allowing RLUSD as collateral does not mean institutions must buy XRP. Progress with affiliated companies exists, but token benefits still need to be driven by specific demand; "available" should not be directly translated as "must buy" (¬‿¬)
The experience with $BICO is quite smooth: it covers transaction fees and supports payment with other tokens. But while users are more convenient, someone has to bear the costs. Rather than focusing on how many applications have been connected, I want to watch who is continuously paying and whether payments can cover costs. After all, the buzz is at the gateway, but the revenue is what counts in the ledger ( •̀ ω •́ )✧
#Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期 $ZEC has been adjusting for 20 days. After the last violent pump, it took more than a month to adjust and reach a new high?
The largest $ZEC whale on HYPE is still active and has accumulated an additional 6,126.64 coins through TWAP, with a transaction volume of 7.2049 million USD, an average cost of 1,176 USD per coin, increasing the position by about 57.5%;
After adding to the position, his ZEC long position increased to 16,779.74 coins, valued at 19.4863 million USD, with an average price of 1,179.65 USD, currently at an unrealized loss of about 307,900 USD, with a liquidation price of 838.19 USD;
This whale started trading ZEC as early as July 19, this round of positions began on September 6, and no reduction in position has been observed so far.
In addition, he holds 1,121,300 $NEAR long coins, valued at 5.691 million USD with an unrealized profit of 89,500 USD; and 1 billion $PUMP long coins, valued at 4.455 million USD with an unrealized profit of 85,900 USD. The three long positions total approximately 29.6323 million USD, with $ZEC accounting for 65.8%!! South Korea's pension fund suffers a massive loss of $137 billion; is the South Korean economy really "finished"? Recently, dragged down by the stock price declines of semiconductor giants Samsung Electronics ($SAMSUNG) and SK Hynix ($SKHYNIX), the National Pension Service (NPS) of South Korea has incurred an unrealized loss of about $137 billion. This marks the first quarterly decline for the fund since Q4 2024, a sharp reversal for the NPS which had just set a record high return in the first half of the year. For a moment, pessimistic views claiming "South Korea is done" have surged. Expert perspectives conclude that it is too early to make such a definitive judgment, but it must not be taken lightly either. This $137 billion loss more so reflects the deep structural vulnerabilities exposed in an economy highly dependent on a single industry, facing drastic changes in the global capital cycle and technological landscape. First, this is a technical correction, not a systemic collapse. The NPS loss is an unrealized paper loss, not a realized cash loss. With total assets reaching about $1.35 trillion, this $137 billion shrinkage accounts for roughly 10% of its total portfolio. Although painful, it is far from debilitating or shaking the foundation of the pension system. However, alarms have been raised as the cracks in South Korea's "K-shaped economy" ($KR200) are widening. The South Korean economy is a typical case of semiconductor export boom alongside shrinking domestic demand industries. By the end of 2025, 19.1% of South Korea's non-financial enterprises are "zombie companies," with the real estate sector's proportion even higher at 43.7%. Meanwhile, household debt as a percentage of GDP isSaylor believes that Bitcoin is returning to a bull market.
But more than his statement, I am more focused on what he mentioned about the next 12 to 24 months: banks accelerating the provision of Bitcoin custody and related credit services, as well as securities tokenization.
If these businesses gradually take shape, Bitcoin's growth logic may no longer rely solely on ETF capital inflows, but further enter the traditional financial custody, collateral, and credit systems.
ETFs solve how investors gain BTC exposure; bank custody and collateral lending may allow Bitcoin to enter broader financial application scenarios.
Of course, whether banks will scale up these businesses depends on regulation, risk management, and actual customer demand.
Another piece of news worth paying attention to is Strategy's STRC.This week, the market still seems unable to avoid the war between the US and Iran, especially the oil prices, which is really a headache. In September, US gasoline prices rose 9.1% month-on-month, and this alone contributed to more than half of the monthly CPI increase. The market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not rush to raise interest rates in October, but the expectation of a rate hike in December has already emerged. If the issue in the Strait of Hormuz is not resolved soon and oil prices continue to run high, the costs of transportation, manufacturing, and food will sooner or later be passed downstream, and the Fed might have to continue raising rates in 2027.
What’s more troublesome is that there are only about two weeks left until the US midterm elections on November 3. High gasoline prices, high living costs, and high loan interest rates are things that ordinary people feel every day—I even feel sorry for Trump.
Looking at last week’s semiconductor and AI sectors, they were also tossed around quite a bit. The market is now starting to worry about when AI companies will be able to recoup the huge amounts of money they have invested. Especially those companies borrowing money to build data centers and buy GPUs—interest rates have not come down, new financing is expensive, refinancing old debt is also costly, and cash flow pressure is increasing. If downstream customers slow down their expansion, the order expectations for chip companies like Nvidia will have to be adjusted accordingly, and stock prices often react earlier than actual orders.
BTC is now moving so closely with tech stocks that when the Nasdaq falls, the crypto circle also finds it hard to stay unaffected. This week, I’m mainly watching two things: whether oil prices can come down and whether AI financing pressure will continue to expand. As long as these two issues haven’t eased, it will probably not be easy for tech stocks and BTC to stage a decent rebound.INJ has been trending on the hot search list these past two days, and today it surged into the top three again.
The 4-hour K-line from 4 AM to 8 AM was quite strong, jumping directly from 7.79 to 8.83, an increase of about 13% in 4 hours. After that, it didn't surge further and has been consolidating between 8.39 and 8.74, currently around 8.60.
The key levels I'm watching:
Above, 8.78–8.83 is a resistance zone; yesterday's and this morning's highs were stuck here. Above that is 9.42, reached on the 16th, when over 300 million USD volume was traded, with many trapped above.
Below, 8.39–8.45 are the lows from two pullbacks today.
So my plan is to buy on dips, not chase:
🎯 Bias: Bullish
🎯 Entry: 8.40–8.48
🎯 Stop loss: 8.18, if it falls here, it means more than 60% of the morning rally was given back, so admit the mistake
🎯 Target: Take half off at 8.83, hold the rest aiming around 9.30
If the 4H candle closes with volume above 8.85, wait for a pullback that doesn't break support before following; if the 4H closes below 8.39, this plan is void, stay out and wait.
Funding rate is near zero, open interest around 35 million USD, not crowded. Small coins are volatile, keep leverage low 😅
$INJ #INJ #ContractStrategy
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR$HYPE, here are some numbers for you to consider.
Four hundred thousand wallets, a net loss of $280 million on Hyperliquid in one year. I encountered half of this number at noon, now compiling the whole: these wallets accessed through six common wallet apps, and over half of the withdrawn amount is just fees. $100 per transaction, and those wallets charge an additional 0.65% to 1.45% on the base rate.
My first reaction wasn’t sympathy, but respect—this isn’t decentralized trading, it’s like setting up a toll station and making people queue.
The money lost by placing orders yourself is still less than what’s taken in fees. Isn’t that absurd? Meanwhile, HYPE keeps burning tens of thousands daily through buybacks at an average price of 78.5. The exchange profits steadily, users consistently lose, this model is so solid it makes your teeth itch. It’s currently at 79.92, down 8.2% in 7 days, despite all the coin burning, the price still follows the market slump.
The fee business is the fattest pit in the crypto world. Don’t rush to curse, the slippage and spread you pay when trading contracts have already made you a shareholder in this business. $HYPE $BTC: The respectable $80,000 level propped up by an "options wall" is not a sign of spot buying returning
CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations; according to the old script, $BTC should have dropped to the 70,000 range, but $80,000 held firm. Looking at options, there is a large open interest at the $80,000 strike price, with market makers passively buying to hedge Gamma as the price approaches, creating temporary stickiness. Fear and greed index rose from 53 to 60, resembling structural support. In October, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of over $600 million; CoinShares characterizes this as a tug-of-war rather than a reversal. The cushion will thin out with the October 16 expiration and position migration.
$ETH: 2500 is a sentiment rebound, not a revival of the deflation narrative
The "ultrasound money" label is now a stretch: 2,955 new coins minted in 24 hours, 13.59 burned, with burn accounting for only 0.46% of new issuance; year-to-date burn only offsets 2.07% of issuance. L2s like Base are absorbing users and fees, leaving the mainnet burn starved of fuel, with circulating supply increasing by over 80,000 coins monthly. The 2500 rebound looks more like a risk appetite recovery after a drop, not an on-chain supply-demand improvement.
$BTC relies on options hedging, $ETH on lingering sentiment; macro conditions remain tight, and $ETH supply is still growing. Both holding and rebounding are possible, but sustainability is questionable.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 A large number of airdrops have been liquidated. What should be the next choice?
According to TokenPost data, on October 16th within 24 hours, short liquidations accounted for 51.79%, with about $115 million in short positions liquidated, and ETH short liquidations reaching as high as 63%.
BTC short positions: the last stronghold or the next domino to fall?
Although BTC's rebound this round is smaller than ETH and SOL, the logic of short squeeze has not disappeared. If the market tests the previous high area again, the remaining short positions will directly enter the forced liquidation range.
Institutional funds are still watching. The US spot ETH ETF has seen net outflows on 11 of the past 12 trading days, and institutional funds have not massively returned. The lack of incremental buying means the rebound height may be limited, but it also means that once there is a new macro catalyst, the short squeeze could come more fiercely.
Technically neutral to bearish, but support remains. BTC's RSI is about 48.9, in the neutral range; the 50-day EMA is at $80,407, and the 200-day EMA is at $75,759, with the long-term trend still leaning bullish. The $80,000 round number is a key support below, and $81,603 is a short-term resistance level. If BTC holds above $80,000, shorts still have some breathing room; if it breaks below $80,000, short profits may quickly expand, but it could also trigger a new round of long liquidations, causing more intense volatility.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 10x short position, account leverage is only 1.94x
Two perpetual short positions, $XRP and $BTC, both 10x full margin.
What does this number mean: 10x is the single position leverage, not the account leverage.
The combined margin of the two positions only accounts for a small portion of the account.
So the overall leverage is just 1.94x, which can be calculated by working backward.
What he actually did: placed short orders at a high level, with floating profit already over one million.
Maintaining a margin ratio of 6220%, meaning it is far from liquidation.
What really needs to be guarded against is not liquidation, but a rapid rebound spike.
With 10x full margin, if the price moves 10% against the position, the single position margin will be gone.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？
#$XRP $BTC On October 19, Musk announced that next year he will give each of approximately 72 to 73.37 million children across the United States one share of SpaceX stock. Based on a stock price of $146.03, the total value is about $10.5 to $10.7 billion. After the announcement, SpaceX's pre-market stock price rose about 1.53%, approaching the $150 mark. $SPCX $xSPCX Is this a good thing or a bad thing? Let's look at it from two perspectives. The positive side is a textbook example of a "mindshare and political moat." With shares accounting for only about 0.55% of SpaceX's total market value, it has bought the mental allegiance of the next generation across the U.S. Behind 72 million children are an equal number of families; any politician attempting to tax SpaceX, impose antitrust measures, or restrict the development of Starlink/Starship will be positioned as "robbing the future of all American children." When these kids grow up, buying Teslas, using Starlink, or even traveling to Mars in the future, they will naturally feel a sense of closeness as "shareholders." Looking further ahead, this is equivalent to planting tens of millions of "native growth period shareholders" for SpaceX, forming a potential continuous buying force. The risk side is equally clear. These shares are locked until 2027 before they can be sold. Recipients receive speculative value tied to market sentiment, with no immediate liquidity and no corresponding current profits. Apart from Starlink, SpaceX's other business segments are still operating at a loss. The overall price-to-earnings ratio is negative, and the price-to-sales ratio exceeds 80 times. The valuation itself heavily relies on the "story" rather than profit support. Giving away stock will not changeThe sugar coating of Uptober has fallen off 😅, and the bulls were awakened by a cold splash of macro factors this week.
Trigger: Oil prices surpassed 100 yuan, the risk in the Strait of Hormuz escalated, the 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.2%, the US dollar index hit an 18-month high, and the Federal Reserve shifted from "rate cuts" to "possible rate hikes" 🔥.
Money first fled: BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of nearly $680 million in a single week, the largest since June; ETH ETFs have been bleeding for more than ten consecutive days; nearly $1 billion was liquidated in a single day, with bulls accounting for 80% 💸.
The three brothers diverged: BTC fell from 87,000 to 81,000, now rebounding to 82,400, with 81,000 support temporarily stable; ETFs rebounded in the latter half of the week, showing the strongest resilience; ETH fell below 2,500 and is bottoming around 2,420, ETH/BTC under pressure, staking unlocks + lack of breakout products make it hard to strengthen independently; HYPE gave back the gains from early this month, down about 12% for the week at $79, with high beta retreating and taking the first hit 📉.
My judgment: This looks more like macro deleveraging rather than an endogenous crypto collapse. $BTC's 81,000 is the watershed; if it doesn't break, it will maintain the range, but if it falls below, look to 78,000; ETH failing to reclaim 2,600 means no reversal. Don't chase rebounds in the short term; wait for US Treasury yields and oil prices to cool down and risk appetite to warm up before acting ⏳. #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 [Breaking News] Dubai's actual GDP declined by 2.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year. By sector, wholesale and retail, real estate, and transportation and warehousing sectors faced significant pressure; the financial and insurance industry grew counter-trend by 8.8%, and construction saw a slight increase. The data reflects that trade and logistics were dragged down by regional geopolitical and shipping disruptions, but high value-added industries such as finance and healthcare continued to expand, showing a differentiated economic structure. Market interpretation suggests Dubai is reducing its reliance on traditional re-export trade and accelerating its transformation towards finance and high-end services. Key follow-up indicators include port transshipment data, real estate sales, and foreign investment implementation.
Note: This information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice Rising oil prices are putting new pressure on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
According to this set of data, U.S. gasoline prices rose 9.1% month-over-month in September, contributing to more than half of that month's CPI increase.
This means that a significant portion of the inflationary pressure that month came from energy prices.
Gasoline is a key indicator because it directly affects household travel costs and can also transmit through transportation and logistics to other goods.
If oil prices continue to rise, inflation may come under renewed pressure. Even if core inflation remains relatively moderate for the time being, the Federal Reserve cannot ignore the risks posed by sustained increases in energy prices.
This also explains why the market is revisiting the possibility of interest rate hikes.
However, it is important to note that rising oil prices do not necessarily mean the Federal Reserve will raise rates.
Policy direction will also depend on subsequent inflation data, employment conditions, economic growth, and whether the energy shock spreads to a broader range of goods and service prices.
For the crypto market, this macro link is worth tracking:
Rising oil prices → increased inflationary pressure → potential cooling of rate cut expectations → changes in interest rate expectations and the dollar's movement → impact on risk asset valuations.
What really matters next is not which meeting the market is betting on today, but whether oil prices can fall back and whether future data will force the Federal Reserve to readjust its policy direction.
What the macro market fears most is not a change in a single number, but the overturning of trading logic originally built on rate cut expectations.A nationwide airdrop for Americans 🪂
Elon Musk said that in 2027, every American child will receive one share of $SPCX stock. There is no restriction to newborns, so it is reasonably assumed to be for everyone under 18 years old.
This group currently numbers 72,021,348 people, roughly the same next year. At the current price of $150 per share, that amounts to $10.8 billion, about 0.5464% of the total shares.
Elon Musk personally holds 46.04% of the shares, which will unlock all at once next June. The 0.55% involved here is just a small fraction, so it’s not a big issue.
How will these shares be distributed? Possibly through Trump Accounts, which could also help improve relations with President Trump.
In fact, on July 6 this year, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell announced that she and her husband would gift SpaceX shares to over 2 million American children aged 11-17 in low-income areas via Trump Accounts, one share each, with a total value exceeding $320 million. Today’s announcement from Elon Musk can be seen as an expansion to all American children.$KAITO
Crypto information has become abundant, but attention remains a limited resource. Kaito focuses on organizing crypto-related information and attention, an area where AI can help users navigate crowded narratives. The challenge is separating genuine insight from social noise. Its longer-term relevance will depend on whether users and projects continue finding value in its information tools after market enthusiasm shifts to the next trending sector.$BTC dominance remains at 60.2%, but the entire market fell 2.34% in 24 hours. Bitcoin didn't give way; the sectors that surged fiercely were a series of tokenized stock sectors. rStocks, Stonk, tokenized ETFs, and ETPs all refer to the same thing: US stocks on-chain. These sectors are all small in scale, with the largest only at $650 million. Remora surged 802% in one day, relying on its small market cap. USDT market cap basically didn't move in one day, with no new money coming in. Dominance staying high indicates that funds haven't massively left $BTC. This is a scenario where existing market volume squeezes into a small corner with a story during a bear market. Fear and greed dropped from 69 a week ago to 59; sentiment is retreating, and hot money will be more selective. I judge that this rotation won't last long. The end signals to watch for are two: dominance continuing to rise from 60.2%, or the daily gains of tokenized ETFs and ETPs narrowing to single digits. If either occurs, this round is considered over.Last week, US spot ETFs had a total redemption of 548 million: BTC saw 228.4 million redeemed, ETH saw 320.1 million redeemed.
Institutional money is flowing out, and this topic quickly shot to the top of the trending list—everyone is asking, who will return first?
BTC is now at 82,860, up 1.42%. On paper, "withdrawal" and "receipt" are happening simultaneously: ETFs redeemed 228 million, but large wallets have actually accumulated 86,000 coins since mid-September. Some institutions estimate that this year, the combined buying from ETFs and corporate treasuries cannot absorb the supply from long-term holders, with a gap of about 127,300 coins—but whales are catching them at the bottom. ETH is now at 2,436, up 1.15%, suffering more: last week’s outflow was nearly 100 million more than BTC. Unless the bleeding stops first, any daily gains are just paper gains. SOL is at 105.77, up 2.4%, the strongest among the three main coins, but the upgrade the day after tomorrow is an event-driven catalyst, so don’t take its rise as a signal of institutional return.
My view: 1. ETH’s weekly outflow of 320 million is not narrowing, so talk of return is empty; 2. BTC’s withdrawal and receipt happen simultaneously, whoever can hold on first will stabilize first; 3. SOL is an event-driven token, not a capital-driven one. I bet BTC will stabilize first, ETH’s rebound will have to wait until next week’s ETF turns positive. Who are you siding with? Don't chase! The sharp rise of UNI is just a bait drawn by the whales; chasing longs under 90% control is just giving away for free!
Remember this, friends: Candlestick charts can be drawn, but the flow of real money can't be fooled.
Take a look at the 1-hour chart, it rose sharply from 6.8 to 7.4, but check the capital flow: a bit of inflow in a short time, yet 8.31 million U ran out in one day, and 250 million in 15 days! What does this mean? The whales use a little money to make the chart look good just to trick us into taking the bags, while conveniently blowing up the short positions above 7.4. Plus, with 90% of the chips in their hands, even the CME futures rally today didn't push it up, indicating big institutions are not in a hurry and may even be secretly short hedging.
Trading advice: For those wanting to short, wait for it to push up again to 7.6-7.8 and try a light short;
For going long at the current price, can it hold at 7.2?
$UNI $ZEC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ The pre-market rebound today is indeed quite strong, especially with Bitcoin spiking above 83k. It really doesn't follow the US stock market's decline; once the US stocks rebound, the strong get stronger. Although I can't be sure why Bitcoin is so resilient this round, I roughly guess it's because the real interest rate expectations have stabilized.
Although we are still in a rate-hiking cycle with about two more hikes totaling 50 basis points expected, the market consensus is that this rate-hiking cycle is short. So the negative impact isn't as severe as anticipated.
Another possibility is that although AI, especially storage, has dropped sharply, this round is different from the one in July. The market isn't panicking broadly, or you could say most retail investors have already deleveraged last time. This time prices have fallen a lot but the pain is much less.
So this round of decline might actually be a rotation, fundamentally different from the widespread deleveraging in July.
Even from the perspective of long-term interest rates, easing has actually already happened on the Treasury side. The Treasury's quasi "twist operation" and Waller's hawkish rhetoric are at odds. This brings us back to the US version of YCC logic: the Fed manages nominal short-term rates, the Treasury manages duration and liquidity, and the net effect is favorable for Bitcoin.
In short, since Bitcoin has proven its strength, our mindset should shift from the previous bear market mentality, and our trading approach should change from shorting on rallies to buying on dips. BTC has already dropped 9%, and the most critical level now is the $80,000 mark. If it rebounds but still can't hold above that, $80,000 could turn from support into resistance, and further declines wouldn't be surprising.
But I don't think it's necessary to call it a bear market just because of this drop. In past Bitcoin cycles, pullbacks before halving often reached around 20%, and in the late bull market phases, corrections of 30% or even deeper are not uncommon. If this bull market is still in its early stages, a 30% deep correction shouldn't be considered the default scenario.
By this logic, a retracement of 11% to 22% from the cycle high can be considered within the observation range. It has already dropped 9%, so it's indeed approaching a level worth watching closely. However, don't treat historical patterns as guarantees; if the cycle phase is misjudged, the so-called bottom-buying zone could be broken through continuously.
I tend to advise against rushing to go all in. Those who want to buy can plan their positions in advance, splitting their funds into several parts and buying in batches weekly or monthly. If the price drops further, you get a bigger discount; if it doesn't, you won't miss out entirely. Dollar-cost averaging can't guarantee buying at the lowest point, but at least it spares you the mental stress of guessing the bottom every day.
The issue now isn't about guessing the absolute lowest price, but about how much risk you're willing to take to acquire cheaper chips. For the remainder of 2026, phased buying might be more suitable for ordinary people than betting on a perfect bottom.The dividend narrative of the Ethereum liquid staking sector is undergoing a harsh reality check. ETHFI is priced at $0.64, with a market cap of $620 million, down over 4% in 24 hours, and a trading volume of only $1.16 million — this liquidity can't even satisfy the daily hedging needs of market makers. The price fluctuates narrowly between $0.69 and $0.64, with buy orders so thin they are almost nonexistent.
Smart money signals still show net short positions, net holdings at zero, with no long traders willing to stand guard. This is not institutional bearishness but a complete loss of interest: even the cost of shorting capital is unwilling to be borne. The social aspect is even more dead silent, with bullish and bearish ratios both at zero, and no ranking in popularity. When a protocol token that should benefit from Ethereum staking rewards can't even maintain basic discussion, it indicates the market has voted with its feet — confidence in the protocol revenue dividend model has collapsed.
The core contradiction of ETHFI lies in: weak growth in protocol fee income, while token release pressure persists. The moat of liquid staking protocols is being squeezed from both sides by Lido's stETH monopoly and emerging re-staking protocols. Unless the protocol can launch substantial yield enhancement mechanisms or capture more MEV revenue, the token will continue to grind at the bottom in a downward valuation restructuring channel.
Core judgment: The failure of the dividend narrative combined with token unlocking pressure means it is difficult to see a reversal rally before fundamental improvements become marginal.$BTC rebound supported by futures, ETH shorts liquidated, Celo quietly passed a Gas fee vote On October 19, the market saw a long-awaited "Green Monday," but beneath this broad rally, the intrinsic driving forces of assets were completely different. Here are three new developments worth noting today. Bitcoin: Rebounded past 83,000 but driven by leverage rather than spot BTC rebounded from a low of $80,671, briefly surpassing $83,000 intraday. On the surface, it looks like sentiment recovery, but structurally there is a key divergence: futures 24-hour trading volume reached $43.18 billion, 12.4 times the spot volume of $3.48 billion; open interest totaled about $52.76 billion, with liquidations around $63.87 million during the same period. This indicates the rebound heavily relies on derivatives leverage, with spot buying not increasing correspondingly. The $83,000 level is a touchstone to test the rebound's strength; failure to hold it may mean this is just a short-term pulse driven by short covering. Ethereum: Shorts face a concentrated stampede, Vitalik and JPMorgan release signals on the same day $ETH rose above $2,400, triggering a wave of short liquidations. CoinGlass data shows that during the ETH rebound, 97% of liquidations within one hour were short positions, with total 24-hour liquidations exceeding $300 million; one address shorted with 25x leverage, some positions forcibly closed near $2,409, with remaining liquidation prices around $2,430. The crowded short structure was precisely triggered. On the same day, two infrastructure signals are worth attention. VitalThe daily line of ETH at 2378 has experienced multiple battles between bulls and bears. Previously, it acted as resistance and was broken through; now it has turned into strong support, making this position a key point. The current price is above this level, and the liquidity gap above still needs to be filled. This area is the primary resistance zone for the price to rebound upward and the target for bull liquidity sweeps.
If 2378 does not break, combined with short-term stabilization, the price should move toward the upper gap. This area has a magnetic effect, attracting major players to sweep liquidity upward.
The main strategy is to buy the dip above 2378-2400, with a stop loss below 2378. Short-term take profit is at 2500-2510, and wave take profit at 2623-2682. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 That late-night spike over the weekend is more invigorating than coffee. So is this the final phase of washing out positions, or just a pause in the downtrend? I was a bit surprised by the volume this morning; weekends are usually quiet, yet ETH stirred some action around 2315 before pulling back above 2400. This rhythm feels more like a game of speculation—not chasing the rally, but not full panic either. The collapse in the South Korean stock market is worrying; memories of an 80% drop in a week have resurfaced, and the current 60% drop is indeed eye-catching. After the sharp plunge in US stocks, there was no decent rebound, and the tech sector took another 5% hit this morning. External risk appetite is clearly contracting. The signal I see is: there is support around 2315, and the momentum to push lower after breaking that level is insufficient, so the chance of a deep pit in the short term is suppressed. But this is not a sign of strength, just that the bears are temporarily out of steam. The real variable will be Monday's opening in South Korea; buy orders above 10 on koru exceed fifty million dollars. If the danger zone can't hold, it could trigger a new round of selling, turning ETH's 2400 level into a confirmation of a rebound rather than a starting point. Bullish scenario: support holds, BTC stabilizes without breaking previous lows, ETH holds around 2380, oversold altcoins start to recover, and risk appetite shifts from contraction to localized testing. Bearish risk: South Korean market opens weak, tech stocks continue to be hammered, the low-volume weekend rebound is disproved, ETH retests 2315 or even lower, and risk appetite shifts directly from speculation to defense. The market is no longer trading on rate cut fantasies but on the contagion speed from external stock markets. After CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, the rate hike topic resurfaced, but the real pressure on risk appetite remains.Institutional funds are weakening; which will see capital inflow first, BTC or ETH?
During market downturns, many wait for institutions to bottom-fish. But institutional funds also hesitate, and ETFs are not just reservoirs with only inflows.
According to data, from October 12 to 16, the US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of about $228.4 million, while the spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $320.1 million.
ETH's ETF fund pool is smaller, yet the net outflow amount is larger, which is worth noting.
However, a closer look at the data reveals some changes:
* BTC ETF: The previous week's net outflow was about $679 million, and last week's net outflow scale significantly narrowed.
* ETH ETF: Net outflow decreased from $542.2 million to $320.1 million.
This indicates that selling pressure has eased, but funds have not yet consistently flowed back in, so the trend reversal cannot be confirmed at this time.
If I had to choose which will see capital inflow first, I currently lean towards BTC.
This judgment is mainly based on fund performance: last week, BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $175.7 million, indicating that buyers are still trying to provide support, though sustainability is insufficient.
In contrast, ETH needs more solid capital improvement to reverse its currently relatively weak performance.
Next, I will focus on two signals:
1. Whether ETFs can continuously$CT has been pumping then dumping these days, a typical small coin exchange pulse, with those chasing highs getting clearly shaken out.
Short position 20x, entered at 0.3884, now at 0.3424, +236.86%; not relying on feeling, waiting for the 4-hour candle to break key support and confirm bull exhaustion before following.
Looking at the 4-hour trend, after the surge the MACD red bars are converging, price is suppressed by the upper Bollinger Band, 0.38 is a resistance level, rebound volume shrinks, bears control the pace. The background is low circulation and a pullback after sentiment cools.
Next focus is on 0.35 resistance and 0.33 support; if there is floating profit, it is recommended to move up the stop loss to protect gains and avoid greed. If volume increases and price returns above 0.38, exit first and wait. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $ETH $BTC Meta handing over data center construction to a joint venture should not be seen simply as "spending less money themselves, so AI returns look better." The subsequent lease agreements must also be examined.
In last year's announced Hyperion partnership, funds managed by Blue Owl hold 80% of the joint venture, while Meta holds 20%. However, Meta also agreed to lease the entire campus once the facility is completed and provide a residual value guarantee with attached conditions.
This is a normal financing and asset arrangement that allows both partners to leverage their respective strengths. What concerns me is that a smaller equity stake only indicates that part of the construction funding is borne by the partner; it does not mean Meta only needs to bear 20% of the project's economic cost.
When evaluating this AI investment, future rent and guarantee conditions must also be included. Comparing only the current incremental advertising revenue with capital expenditures, while ignoring the long-term cost of using the facilities, will result in an overly optimistic return calculation.
Of course, the existence of guarantees does not mean losses have already occurred, nor can the joint venture's debt be directly treated as Meta's own debt. Both extreme calculation methods are convenient but prone to misleading.
During earnings season, I hope to see more complete disclosure of investments: which equipment is purchased outright, which facilities are leased long-term, and what future payment obligations exist. More flexible spending methods are good, but shareholders evaluating returns cannot omit costs just because they take a different form.
#Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期 Yesterday I was watching $DNA, planning to wait for a pullback to get in, but it never came, stubbornly holding around 0.27, really strong. Recently, most memes on Alpha have peaked at the opening and then steadily declined, which has given me a bit of PTSD.
The unlocking rule is that the team locks their tokens for 12 months first, and only after completing KPIs will they unlock. With poor token price and bad market cap, KPIs are unlikely to be met, so the team won’t get their tokens, won’t pump the price, and 100 million DNA tokens will become worthless. Interests are aligned, which actually benefits retail investors.
Before 10/19, KPI suggestions can still be submitted. If adopted, the reward is about 5000U worth of DNA. Some have already proposed quantitative indicators like agent activity count and real capital thresholds. If you have ideas, you can give it a try.
Personally, I think this project will likely be taken seriously later on, and the most important KPI should be market cap management.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
The core focus of Netflix's Q3 earnings report is not whether revenue meets expectations, but whether profit improvements can offset the slowdown in growth, and whether advertising, price increases, and live content can support the next phase of valuation. The company guides Q3 revenue at about $12.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 12%, with an operating margin expected at 33.2%, significantly higher than 28.2% in the same period last year. Profit improvement mainly comes from the concentrated release of price increase benefits, advancement in advertising monetization, and strengthened cost discipline from recent layoffs of about a thousand employees.
However, pressure on the revenue side is more worth tracking. Q3 revenue growth slowed further compared to Q2's 13.4%, and the full-year guidance was narrowed to $51 billion to $51.4 billion. This indicates that after user base expansion enters a mature phase, growth relies more on increasing revenue per subscriber. The advertising business is highly anticipated, with a 2026 advertising revenue target of about $3 billion, nearly doubling in ad pre-sales, and progress in programmatic advertising and ad suite certification. However, whether advertising revenue can steadily increase still depends on advertiser budgets, fill rates, and viewing duration. Regarding live sports, live content is expected to account for about 5% of the annual content budget but only contributes about 1% of viewing time, serving more as a customer acquisition and ad inventory tool in the short term.
In trading, Netflix's stock price has fallen more than 22% this year, with the market heavily concerned about growth slowdown and valuation premium. If Q3 profits, advertising progress, and 2027 guidance exceed expectations, it may lead to valuation recovery; if advertising monetization pace is slow, content cost pressure rises, or management is conservative about next year's outlook, the stock price may remain under pressure #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins ETF funds collectively "pull back" 🔥 The rebound still lacks a final push
From October 12 to 16, BTC, ETH, and SOL spot ETFs all saw simultaneous net outflows across three channels, totaling about $574 million 💸, with weekly net inflows collectively at zero. This is not a crash signal, but the coordination of funds is clearly insufficient.
BTC outflowed $228.4 million. On Tuesday, it just saw an inflow of $175.7 million, but on Wednesday, $261.4 million flowed out, and on Friday another $82.4 million left — there was some return flow, but it didn’t sustain, with intermittent support.
SOL outflowed $25.5 million, a small amount, but the signal is serious ⚠️: net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling $50.5 million; on Friday alone, $12.7 million, nearly half of the week’s total. Continuous withdrawal is more alarming than a single large outflow.
ETH outflowed $320.1 million, surpassing BTC. From Wednesday to Friday, there were three consecutive days of outflows totaling $259.5 million, with no stable replenishment seen in ETF channels yet.
Of course, ETF subscriptions and redemptions are only part of the buying side and cannot directly conclude a decline. But for the rebound to be more convincing, it needs continuous net inflows over several days: one day is a pulse, three days suggest a direction. What’s missing now is the word "continuous" 🎯
$BTC $ETH $SOL #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Last week, $SNDK dropped from 1600 to just above 1200, with the storage sector being thoroughly beaten down for an entire week. On Monday during the Asian session, taking advantage of the US stock market holiday, the price quietly climbed back above 1340 from around 1250, reaching a high of 1346, a nearly 8% increase. But this rebound has an unavoidable issue—it happened entirely in the futures market, while the spot market with real money has yet to show any signs.
What’s even more worrisome is the distribution of positions in the futures market. Long positions have piled up to 80%, with shorts only at 20%, a crowding level far exceeding that of BTC and ETH during the same period. The price hasn’t yet returned to where it was before last week’s drop, but there are already more longs than then. This kind of structure, once faced with spot selling pressure after the market opens, could lead to reverse volatility much stronger than expected.
The daily candlestick resistance roughly lies between 1360 and 1380, which also happens to be near the opening price of the last 4-hour candle before last Friday’s close. If the price can smoothly reach this level before the US market opens at 9:30 PM tonight, and there are spot buyers willing to take over there, then this repair can be considered to have its first layer of confidence. Conversely, if only futures longs are playing their own tune at that level and spot sell orders flood in once the opening bell rings, the 80% long crowding will turn into a fuse that could ignite at any moment.The A-share robotics sector showed early fluctuations, followed by Figure securing $675 million in financing, finally bringing the hype around humanoid robots from the primary market and traditional stocks into crypto derivatives. $UNITREE surged from $62 to $74, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding $41 million. On the four-hour chart, it posted four consecutive bullish candles, with volume five times that of the previous day, directly breaking through the upper boundary of a two-week consolidation range.
Interestingly, the timing window. BTC only rose 1.5% during the same period, the overall market was mostly sideways or slightly pressured, but this X-Perp, which just launched a week ago, showed an independent rhythm. The underlying logic chain is not hard to trace: the US tech sector continues to raise valuations for the robotics track, Figure's massive financing anchors the entire sector's valuation, and Unitree, as a G1 player already commercialized, with low unit price but leading shipment volume, happens to be the mapping target accessible to the crypto market.
However, cross-market linkage is a double-edged sword. The recent combination of a strong US dollar index and high, volatile US Treasury yields is naturally unfriendly to high-volatility, small-cap assets. The strengthening gold, reflecting risk-off sentiment, actually conflicts with the risk appetite needed for the robotics sector. Once US tech stocks experience a pullback or interest rate expectations turn hawkish again, these purely narrative-driven assets are often the first to be hit. This pre-market rebound today is indeed quite strong, especially with BTC spiking above 83k. It really doesn't follow the US stock market's decline; once the US stocks rebound, the strong get stronger. Although I can't be sure why BTC is so resilient this round, I roughly guess it's because the real interest rate expectations have become relatively fixed.
Although we are still in a rate-hiking cycle with about two more hikes totaling 50BP expected, the market consensus is that this rate-hiking cycle is short. So the negative impact is not as strong as anticipated.
Another possibility is that although AI, especially storage, has dropped sharply, this round is different from the one in July. The market is not in widespread panic, or you could say most retail investors have already deleveraged last time. This time prices have dropped a lot but the pain is much less.
So this round of decline might actually be a rotation, fundamentally different from the broad deleveraging in July.
Even from the perspective of long-term interest rates, easing has actually already happened on the Treasury side. The Treasury's quasi "twist operation" and Waller's hawkish rhetoric are at odds. This brings us back to the US version of YCC logic: the Fed hikes nominal short-term rates, the Treasury manages duration and liquidity, and the net effect is favorable for BTC.
In short, since BTC has proven its strength, our mindset should shift from the previous bear market, and our operations should change from shorting on rallies to buying on dips. $BTC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix's Q3 earnings are to be released *after the US market closes on October 20*, so this analysis is based only on pre-release estimates, not on actual results.
*My final thought:* My inclination on the earnings-beat question is slightly *NO*. However, this edge is so small that blindly betting against the market is not wise, especially since the market is currently trading at *YES 72¢*.