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How to distinguish between patient holding and holding through a position? I'll answer with my own forced liquidation this month.
That early morning, I opened a short position. Actually, the direction was right, and shortly after opening, it was in floating profit.
Later, the price started to move back. I watched helplessly as the floating profit shrank bit by bit, until it disappeared and turned negative. At every level, I kept thinking the same thing: break even and exit, break even and close.
In the end, the system made the decision for me: forced liquidation.
Only when reviewing did I realize that from floating profit to forced liquidation, I had only one thought in mind: break even. I never asked myself once whether the bearish logic still held; I only looked at how far the price was from my cost.
This is the boundary.
Patient holding focuses on whether the logic still holds. Holding through a position focuses on whether the cost has been recovered.
When your mind is filled only with the words "break even and close," you are no longer trading; it's purely luck.
I set three objective signals for myself (just my humble opinion):
First, are you thinking about whether the logic still holds, or just about breaking even?
Second, do you still dare to watch the market? Patient people dare to watch; those holding through a position do not.
Third, was your stop loss set before entering, or moved later? If moved, that's holding through a position.
My answer is: where your mind is focused, there you are in that state.
Everyone, check yourself: for the positions you hold now, are you thinking about the logic or about breaking even?
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH $SNDK SpaceX has dropped nearly 13% in a week, and not even Starship can save the stock price? This time, the market's concern might not be about rockets at all.
My judgment: Continue to be bullish in the medium to long term, but don't chase in the short term; wait for a pullback.
1️⃣ The short-term sell-off is about AI premium. CoreWeave plummeted, and the market is starting to reassess the financing costs of AI infrastructure. SpaceX being dragged down together doesn't mean Starlink's business suddenly got worse.
2️⃣ European competition is real, but not that fast. Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales are jointly pushing Bromo, aiming to complete Europe's space industry chain. But catching up to Starlink's scale and launch efficiency can't be achieved immediately just by throwing money at it.
3️⃣ The real catalyst is Starship. Flight 15 has been postponed to no earlier than November 8. Whether the spacecraft can be recovered will be an important focus; success is expected to strengthen the technology narrative, while failure may continue to impact market sentiment.
📍 Trading plan: Observe buying in batches at 145 / 142 / 139, stop loss at 135, target 158 → 176. Prices are just references; if the pullback isn't in place, keep waiting and don't chase.
I'm not afraid of a SpaceX pullback; what I fear is liking it so much that I can't help but chase the highs.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $SPCX $BTC is stagnant, not stable, but because no one wants to make the first move
$BTC is hovering between 81,600 and 82,000.
Volume keeps shrinking, 84,000 is already last week's story.
What does this price level mean: 80,000 looks stable, but actually there's no strength either up or down.
Few people placing orders, many waiting for direction; the longer it stays sideways, the more urgent the move will be.
What will happen next: $ETH at 2,420, falling but not rising.
$ZEC has dropped one-third from the high, a single-day 14% drop like that naturally means fewer buyers.
$SOL at 104, breaking the 100 mark looks toward 90.
This weekend's silence most likely means the real action will be seen on Monday.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？
#$BTC $ETH 🚨🚨🚨 I have a very bold prediction: the bottom of the next Bitcoin bear market might be at $120,000!
You read that right.
I'm talking about the bear market bottom, not the bull market top.
This long-term monthly BTC chart shows a very noteworthy historical phenomenon:
📍 2017 bull market peak: around $20,000
📍 2022 bear market bottom: around $15,500
The lowest point of the previous bear market still held near the earlier bull market peak.
And now, Bitcoin has experienced a new major upward cycle.
If BTC continues to set new all-time highs and completes the next long-term bull-bear cycle...
Could the next bear market bottom possibly be not $60,000, nor $80,000, but $120,000?
I think this scenario deserves serious consideration.
Because with spot ETFs, institutional funds, and corporate treasury allocations gradually entering the market, Bitcoin's long-term supply and demand structure is changing.
The previously effective four-year halving cycle does not necessarily mean the future will repeat in exactly the same way.
Of course, this is just a long-term scenario projection, not a confirmed bottom prediction. The 2018 bear market also fell well below earlier historical highs.
But the core point I want to express is:
Could the prices we are now afraid to buy at become prices that the next bear market will never revisit?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Micron plummeted 5.63%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for eight consecutive days! Are the good days for AI storage over?
I actually think that the harshest cuts now may not be due to fundamentals, but valuation.
1️⃣ Earnings haven't collapsed, but stock prices have. TrendForce expects Q4 DRAM contract prices to rise 10%–15%; Micron's Q1 revenue guidance is as high as $61.5 billion. Orders are still there, but the market is starting to worry: how much is this growth really worth?
2️⃣ The real risk lies in financing. CoreWeave plunged about 12% in one day; the AI infrastructure model relying on borrowing to expand is being tested. The higher the interest rates, the more expensive the capital, and the less willing the market is to pay for distant growth.
3️⃣ But Micron is not without worries. Domestic DRAM capacity expansion and future supply increases could affect the memory cycle. Cutting valuations now doesn't mean fundamentals will never deteriorate.
My strategy: short-term bearish bias, but no chasing the downside.
Reference price levels: 966 / 1002 / 1045 to observe pullback and shorting opportunities in batches, admit mistake above 1050; target 882 → 856. If the price structure changes, the plan will be void.
Remember: a good company does not equal a good price, and industry prosperity does not mean stock prices only go up without falling. $MU #Capital Flow: ETF Outflows, Whales Taking Over
The current market direction is hard to choose, the core issue is two groups of funds are in a tough battle.
📉ETF Side | Continuous Outflows
Since October, BTC spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of 615 million, with ETH outflows even more severe. On 10/16 alone, BTC ETFs outflowed 82.39 million, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for 71.78 million; institutions are still withdrawing in the short term.
📈Whale Side | Quiet Accumulation
The number of wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC has hit a record high: 20,338, with a cumulative increase of 86,702 BTC over the past three weeks. Exchange BTC balances dropped from 2.726 million to 2.68 million, while whale holdings remain steady above 3 million.
In short: ETFs are selling, whales are buying, moving chips from exchanges to cold wallets. Bulls and bears are at a standoff; the direction remains to be seen. #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ $BTC
Brothers, check out this liquidation data, the market is getting interesting!
In the short cycles of 1 hour, 4 hours, and 12 hours, the liquidation amount of short positions is far greater than that of long positions, indicating that the short-term trend is a pump to shake out shorts, sweeping out those who shorted at low levels.
However, extending to 24 hours, the situation reverses: long position liquidations total 190 million, more than the 150 million of shorts, meaning that throughout the day the overall trend was mainly a dump to harvest longs.
Simply put: the overall daily trend is bearish, but there was a violent short squeeze rebound in the short term.
The market is tugging back and forth—first pumping up to clear shorts, then likely falling back to clean up longs chasing the rally, a typical two-way harvesting volatile market.
Don't blindly chase longs on the short-term rebound; this rally is most likely just a shakeout, not a direct reversal to a big rise. Be careful of being trapped if it falls again after the rebound. ETF outflowed another $550 million, but there's a detail that changed
Last week (October 12–16), the combined net outflow of US spot BTC and ETH ETFs was about $549 million. BTC accounted for $229 million, marking the second consecutive week of outflows; ETH accounted for $320 million, marking the third consecutive week of outflows. Since October began, ETH ETFs have seen about $955 million in outflows, the highest monthly outflow this year.
But one detail changed: the outflow pace is slowing down. The combined outflow of the two ETFs was $1.22 billion the previous week, while last week it was $549 million, less than half. Wednesday saw the worst day of the week with BTC ETFs outflowing $260 million in a single day, but Tuesday still had a net inflow of $176 million, showing ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Looking at the whole year, both sides still have net inflows: BTC ETFs about +$259 million year-to-date, ETH ETFs about +$610 million. Whether institutions are exiting or just repositioning is still too early to conclude.
Risk reminder: For reference only, not investment advice. #Institutional funds weaken, who will see the first inflow, BTC or ETH?
📉ETF continues to bleed
From 10/12 to 16, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 228 million; ETH was even worse, with a net outflow of 320 million. The highly elastic ETH is treated more cautiously by funds.
📉Corporate buying slows down
The pace of treasury increases by entities like Strategy has clearly slowed. Galaxy Research data: This year, ETF + corporate treasury buying has been unable to absorb the long-term whale selling pressure, with a cumulative supply-demand gap of -127,300 BTC.
📉Altcoins drained of liquidity
141 altcoins dropped an average of 14% last week, while BTC only fell 3%. Trading volume and stablecoin supply shrank simultaneously; no money is entering OTC markets, and on-exchange funds are all clustering in BTC for hedging.
💡Conclusion
BTC is the first choice for hedging and is likely to stabilize first; ETH has fallen deeply and will have greater elasticity after the market reverses, but betting on it to reverse first is extremely risky now.
$BTC $ETH Just glanced at the 4-hour chart, and when ETH made its second bottom test, my heart skipped a beat. Can this low really hold? Honestly, looking at the market recently, it increasingly feels like "hard to play" is not an illusion. On the surface, there are quite a few hot topics—RWA narratives are progressing, and ETF-related tools are being rolled out—but the actual buying power to absorb selling pressure underneath is thin enough to cause concern. ETH hasn't broken the previous low on this second test; the 4-hour level bullish divergence signal has indeed appeared, and the support below is starting to respond. In the short term, I personally lean toward the bottom area being roughly set. But there's an easily overlooked gap here: the chart signals a "stop in the decline," but the market is trading on a "re-pricing of expectations." What does this mean? The longer the high interest rate environment drags on, the more the market's imagination about rate cuts gets repeatedly revised. Meanwhile, leveraged ETFs like BTC and ETH make position adjustments faster and more fragmented. The result is that while bullish divergence can bring a rebound, it doesn't necessarily bring a trend. Everyone gets excited seeing divergence, but what really determines the pace is whether the 4-hour resistance above can be effectively overcome. The bullish path is clear: ETH holds the second low, breaks through the upper resistance on the 4-hour chart, and sentiment recovery will first transmit to ETH, then drive those deeply fallen altcoins to stage an oversold rebound, with risk appetite briefly warming. But the risk is also there: if the second bottom test is just a low-volume false stabilization, once the resistance repeatedly fails, leveraged tools will amplify the speed of the decline. BTC will consolidate sideways, ETH will struggle alone, and altcoins will fall even faster. This kind of structural divergence is the most frustrating aspect of the current market.Duan Yongping calculates Apple's price very straightforwardly.
$AAPL has a market value of about 5 trillion. The US 10-year Treasury yield is about 5.2%. If you buy 5 trillion worth of Treasuries, in 10 years you will get back about 8.36 trillion.
That means Apple needs to earn an additional 3.36 trillion in the next 10 years, with profits growing about 12.6% annually, for buying it to be more worthwhile than buying Treasuries.
He says Apple is a good company, but maintaining this growth rate on such a base is not easy. If you think it can achieve this or even do better, then the current price is not expensive.
Haha, the day before he also said: At this price, I am selling calls on Apple, I like it, but it's hard to take the plunge and buy.
In the future, when you see a good company, you can also first ask: Can its growth outperform risk-free Treasuries? Congress won't grant authority, will the CFTC act alone? Can the "voluntary version" of crypto regulation be implemented?
On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed to pass in the Senate, blocking the CFTC's path to expand crypto regulatory authority.
But in less than three weeks, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig introduced a new framework himself. On October 5, the CFTC issued an ANPRM, launching Reg CTX and Reg CAM, establishing a "three-tier" regulatory system:
Tier 1: Pure spot trading, only anti-fraud enforcement, other matters handled by state licenses.
Tier 2 (core): Retail platforms with leverage and financing. Eligible to apply for lightweight federal registration (CAM), with Coinbase and others as potential candidates.
Tier 3: Perpetuals and derivatives, regulated under the traditional DCM framework.
However, this framework has a fatal limitation: it is voluntary.
Selig admitted that mandatory registration requires congressional legislation. Platforms can choose federal registration or continue using state licenses. This means the market coverage of this framework, supported by existing laws, depends entirely on whether exchanges find the "federal endorsement" worth the compliance cost.
The public comment period ends on December 14. Is this "voluntary version" of regulation truly beneficial, or just a lot of noise with little substance? What are your thoughts?ETH short position about 259 million, BTC short position about 214 million, held by the same address.
Hyperliquid public position scan (around the evening of October 19): address 0x5b5d…c060 currently holds 106,350 ETH shorts at 5x leverage, nominally about 259 million USD, average opening price about 2323, unrealized loss about 12 million USD; BTC shorts of 2,585 at 5x leverage, nominally about 214 million USD, average opening price about 76205, unrealized loss about 17.1 million USD. The two nominal positions total about 473 million, with unrealized losses totaling about 29.1 million. At the time of writing, BTC is about 82752, ETH about 2434.
In my view: these two are currently the largest ETH and BTC shorts on the market combined in the same address, aligned in direction, but the unrealized losses are already significant. Going forward, they will either rely on time to wear down or actively cut positions.
Do you bet that they will continue to hold this large short position, or cut positions first to realize about 29.1 million in unrealized losses?
Stay tuned, I will continue writing if there are changes in these top short positions.
$ETH $BTC 4 months after going public, SpaceX has already ridden the roller coaster and will deliver its first full report tomorrow.🚀
After market close on 10-20, SpaceX will release its Q3 earnings report, the first full quarterly report since going public.
Expected EPS is $0.14 (compared to a loss of $0.09 last quarter), with revenue of $12.9 billion (+65%).
Interestingly, the stock price dropped 10.6% last week, breaking below the 50-day moving average, indicating expectations had already been priced in.
Evercore raised its price target to $275 last week, bullish on AI and Starlink.
But the real test comes after the earnings report: 1.31 billion shares will be unlocked, with chips locked for 180 days coming to market.
However, after the first unlock in August, the stock price actually rose 35%, and with JPMorgan estimating $12.4 billion in passive buying (recalculated for Nasdaq 100 weighting), a sell-off might not be strong enough to push the price down.
My judgment: no bets before the earnings. Only an earnings beat plus a smooth unlock will mark a turning point.
SPCX closed at $146.03 on Friday; at 146, there are stories both up and down.
xStocks is rushing to subscribe to SpaceX shares, how many did you get?
$SPCX
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Unitree Robotics, a stock that has been halved since its IPO, finally showed some movement with a sharp rebound after two months of continuous decline. The question is whether this is just a bottom bounce or a true reversal.
Frankly, the current valuation is still too high. For a toy robot company like this, the current price is all bubble.
Today's big bullish candle looks more like an oversold rebound after a heavy drop.
A 16% rise looks impressive, but the moving averages are still in a bearish alignment. The $70–72 resistance is obvious; the price hit $72 today and then pulled back. A real reversal requires strong volume and a stable close above $70; if it falls back to $65–66 and can't hold, this rally could easily turn into a "one-day wonder."
The capital flow is also a bit shaky: turnover rate is nearly 22%, with almost a quarter of the shares changing hands in one day. This looks more like trapped investors selling on good news and short-term funds coming in to gamble, rather than big players slowly building positions.
The valuation remains expensive. From $155 down to $60, more than halved, with a price-to-earnings ratio still over 300 times. The big bubble from the IPO day is still being digested. Non-GAAP profits dropped 19% in the first half of the year, and the old problem of revenue growth without profit growth remains unresolved. The average institutional target price is around $68; today's close at $70 means the upside space is mostly capped.
So my view: there is support around $60, but whether $66–70 can be reclaimed is uncertain. Going forward, watch three things: whether $65–66 breaks, whether volume can support a stable close above $70–72, and whether the non-GAAP profit in the Q3 report on October 29 shows improvement. Until these three signals appear, treat this as a rebound, not a reversal; don't get carried away.
$UNITREE Unitree Robotics, a stock that has been halved since its IPO, finally showed some movement with a sharp rebound after two months of continuous decline. The question is whether this is just a bottom bounce or a true reversal.
Frankly, the current valuation is still too high. For a toy robot company like this, the current price is all bubble.
Today's big bullish candle looks more like an oversold rebound after a heavy drop.
A 16% rise looks impressive, but the moving averages are still in a bearish alignment. The $70–72 resistance is obvious; the price hit $72 today and then pulled back. A real reversal requires strong volume and a stable close above $70; if it falls back to $65–66 and can't hold, this rally could easily turn into a "one-day wonder."
The capital flow is also a bit shaky: turnover rate is nearly 22%, with almost a quarter of the shares changing hands in one day. This looks more like trapped investors selling on good news and short-term funds coming in to gamble, rather than big players slowly building positions.
The valuation remains expensive. From $155 down to $60, more than halved, with a price-to-earnings ratio still over 300 times. The big bubble from the IPO day is still being digested. Non-GAAP profits dropped 19% in the first half of the year, and the old problem of revenue growth without profit growth remains unresolved. The average institutional target price is around $68; today's close at $70 means the upside space is mostly capped.
So my view: there is support around $60, but whether $66–70 can be reclaimed is uncertain. Going forward, watch three things: whether $65–66 breaks, whether volume can support a stable close above $70–72, and whether the non-GAAP profit in the Q3 report on October 29 shows improvement. Until these three signals appear, treat this as a rebound, not a reversal; don't get carried away.
$UNITREE #MSCI新规冲击财库股，Strategy公开反对
The boss has something to say
We've talked about the MSCI new regulations before. Strategy openly opposes them, mainly because the exclusion criteria lack clear accounting basis and easily lead to subjective value judgments. The official exclusion hasn't happened yet; the final list will be released on November 11.
But there was a change in today's market. BTC rose 1.18%, MSTR rose 1.92%. The market wasn't scared by this negative news; instead, it is recovering. Why? Because Strategy itself said that index fund holdings only account for 3.1%, so the impact is limited. The $2.8 billion passive sell-off calculated by JPMorgan is an extreme assumption.
I think this is just an emotional disturbance, not a signal of trend reversal. Being excluded will cause short-term capital outflow pressure, but BTC's buying demand doesn't rely solely on index funds. If not excluded, the negative impact will be nullified and may even lead to a rebound.
Yesterday, I took profit on my 81900 short position at 80800. The 81800 long position I hold is still open, with a stop loss at 80500, first target at 84000, second target at 86000. Resistance above is between 84000 and 85000, support below at 80000. Reduce positions at targets, keep the rest at breakeven.
MSCI is a slow variable and doesn't affect short-term rhythm. BTC still follows macro trends. Don't chase highs or kill lows; set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Tron froze 39.27 million USDT overnight: Your private key, their authority. On Tron, 10 addresses holding about 39.27 million USDT were frozen by Tether all at once. The wallet balances are clearly visible, but not a single cent can be transferred out. The essence of this matter is not about the 39.27 million dollars, but that it exposes a fact all USDT holders must face: what you hold is a digital IOU issued by the issuer, and the final interpretation right lies with them. Why was it frozen? The official reason is not "undecided." Monitoring by SlowMist MistTrack points to a clear target: New Coin Guarantee, an illegal guarantee platform based on Telegram, which has handled transactions totaling about 24.2 billion dollars, described by blockchain analysis firm TRM Labs as one of Southeast Asia's largest illegal crypto markets. Previously, Tether had frozen funds related to Huiwang Guarantee; this time is a continuous crackdown on the same type of platform. From the perspective of law enforcement cooperation, this is a targeted compliance action, not an indiscriminate arbitrary freeze. But the problem lies in "how to freeze." The underlying smart contract of USDT hardcodes a blacklist function, with call permissions limited to Tether's multisig owner wallet. Once an address is blacklisted, the USDT on that address is locked at the contract level, cannot be transferred out, nor can it be called by any DeFi protocol. The entire process does not require a court search warrant as a prerequisite. There are cases showing that Tether has formally signed a US court search warrant.$CT rose 13.5% today — but the candlestick language tells you this wasn’t retail investors chasing in.
From late last night to early this morning, $CT traded sideways in a narrow range of 0.29–0.31 with low volume.
Then at 12:00 Beijing time today, the 4H chart suddenly showed an upper shadow: opened at 0.3693, peaked at 0.4054, then dropped all the way back to 0.3425.
This is a classic "testing the market + shakeout" pattern.
0.40 is above a historical high-volume trading zone with thick chip accumulation. The main force swept upwards — not really to push higher, but to probe the selling pressure above. Finding heavy sell orders, they immediately reversed and smashed down to 0.33, trapping all the short-term bulls who chased in.
But the real action is yet to come.
Those shaken out just stopped losses, and the main force started accumulating again between 0.33–0.34, then powered up to 0.36 at 17:30, with volume 40 times the average of early morning.
$CT’s 24h trading volume is $117M, a scale that retail investors can’t produce.
The main force has done a "test resistance - counterattack - re-accumulate" cycle at 0.40; today’s 13.5% rise is the second round of the rally. 0.40 is the next key resistance; only breaking through will open space.
What do you think the main force will do at the 0.40 level — a direct explosive rally or another shakeout? $CT $ETH Retake Exam: Plenty of Stories, But Not Enough Scores 📉
ETH has dropped over 5% again in the past 7 days, with ETH/BTC sliding to its lowest since mid-August. The issue isn't the narrative, but the marginal buying: US spot ETH ETFs have seen eight consecutive outflows, totaling over $600 million; after Bitmine nears its 5% supply cap, the most stable buying is about to stop; funding rates turned negative midweek, with shorts increasing their positions. Pectra, Fusaka, and staking merges are all progressing, but demand hasn't kept pace.
Trading isn't about stories, it's about relative performance: when the market is up, ETH rising along isn't strong; when the market is sideways, ETH hitting a top counts. It's too early to talk about a "catch-up rally" now. 🧮
$BTC is at 81,431, down less than 1.5% in 7 days, showing resilience; but last week spot ETFs had a net outflow of $681 million. The 400-day moving average supports the 81,000 level, and 82,000 must hold. Don't rush to measure others when your own ruler isn't steady. 📏
AAVE is at 151.9, up 6.58% in 30 days, showing an independent rhythm; V4 deposits rose from 232 million to 1.29 billion, but incentives and subsidies make up a significant portion, and value capture is still behind a DAO vote. It still fell nearly 7% in 7 days; business ≠ token. 🏦
The course ETH is failing: relative performance. The retake exam hasn't been submitted yet. 📝#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Crypto ETFs lost $1.2 billion in a single week, key focus on price resilience 🧐
Latest data shows weakening capital flow in US spot crypto ETFs:
📅 October 5 to 9
🔸 $BTC ETF: net outflow of $679 million
🔸 $ETH ETF: net outflow of $542 million
💸 Total net outflow: $1.221 billion
This data indicates that the incremental ETF funds that previously drove the market are currently withdrawing in the short term. Capital outflow amplifies selling pressure, but what deserves more attention is not "how much fled," but "how much price held up." 📉
If ETFs continue to bleed but Bitcoin does not hit new lows, or even gradually raises its lows, it suggests there may be other buyers in the market absorbing the selling pressure. 🧲
Conversely, if outflows continue to expand and the price breaks key support levels, short-term risks need to be reassessed. ⚠️
In short: capital flow tells us how much pressure there is, price reaction tells us how strong the market is. 🔍#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Today $ETH rose across the board with the overall market, but the "potential challenges" should not be underestimated.
ETF outflows reached 320 million this week, with a total of 1.77 billion outflows for both tokens over two weeks. Justin Sun sold 80-90% of ETH between $3600-4000 to shift into US stocks, large holders sold 886 coins on Hyperliquid and 35 million short positions were liquidated. On-chain staking withdrawals exceeded deposits, monthly supply increased by 86,000 coins, tokenized shares dropped to 22%, increasing selling pressure and competition.
Short-term funds are retreating, and whale reductions clearly show fragility, but the overall rise confirms underlying resilience. $BTC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ $ETH has been observing $BTC these past two days; we can't just focus on whether this rebound can hold, the core is still to watch the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy direction. The interest rate meeting is on October 28, and the market is quite divided on whether to continue raising rates, with expectations of another rate hike by year-end heating up.
The news is split into two camps: the hawkish camp believes inflation is not falling as expected and there is still room for rate hikes this year; another group of officials advocates caution, with all decisions to follow economic data. This internal division will amplify the short-term volatility of BTC and ETH.
On the capital side, BTC is clearly stronger than ETH. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $2.65 billion in September. Although the scale has recently declined, funds flowed back on October 13, ending 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows. This signal is worth continuous tracking.
One rebound is not enough to determine a trend reversal. For BTC, two points matter: whether the resistance level can be broken with volume, and whether buying support during the pullback phase is solid; for $ETH, it depends on whether ETF funds can recover and whether the ETH/BTC ratio can be repaired.
Two scenario simulations: if the Fed pauses rate hikes and funds continue to flow back, the market has a chance to slowly recover; but if inflation data again exceeds expectations and rate hike expectations rise, this round of rebound is likely to face pressure and fall back. $BTC $SOL $BTC $ETH $BNB
Many people think that as long as $BTC doesn't crash, they won't lose money.
It's not that simple.
$BTC is stable, but $ETH may not follow; even if $ETH follows, $BNB might not react. The overall market is just the backdrop; what really determines whether you make money or not are the coins you hold and your entry points.
Right now, the most uncomfortable are probably not those who are out of the market, but those holding weak coins waiting for a rebound. Watching $BTC stay strong while their positions remain stagnant makes them more and more anxious, and the more anxious they get, the more they want to switch positions—only to possibly switch into a trap.
$BTC is the anchor, $ETH depends on capital flow, $BNB depends on the platform ecosystem. They won't always move in sync; divergence is the norm.
Don't fool yourself by thinking the overall market is fine; only you know how your account is doing.Currently, I’m still bearish. I didn’t trade all morning today, but in the afternoon I couldn’t resist and opened a small short position on ETH to test the waters.
I opened the short around 2435, with staggered shorts placed at 2450, but the 2450 shorts haven’t been filled yet. The position isn’t large; I want to see how far this rebound can go first.
I want to say I’m not afraid of ETH rising— the more violently it rises, the harder it will fall. But on second thought, maybe not. If it rises sharply, it might keep going up, so I can’t just open shorts and assume every bullish candle is a bull trap.
For the short term, I’m treating 2430–2450 as an observation zone. The order placements don’t necessarily mean there’s resistance there. The key is to see if it can hold after pushing higher. If it repeatedly surges up then falls back and can’t hold 2450, I’d be more inclined to continue viewing the rebound as bearish.
Below, I’m watching 2400 first. If it falls to this level and someone buys in, I can’t be too greedy with shorts. If it breaks below and the rebound can’t recover, then I’ll see if there’s room to probe lower.
Conversely, if it breaks above 2450 with volume and the pullback can hold, then my short position’s rationale weakens and I’ll need to reassess. I can’t keep finding reasons to short while it keeps rising.
Right now, what I fear most is hesitation— if it drops a few points, I regret not opening more; if it rises a few points, I doubt opening too early. The market hasn’t moved far, but I’ve already traded in my mind a dozen times.
Today I’ll start with a small position to observe. I’ll try to trade less than twice today, so I don’t turn testing the waters into struggling underwater.The gateway is open, but the ledger still needs to be reviewed slowly (ง •_•)ง
On October 15, Ripple opened a new path for institutions: trading RWA perpetual swaps through Ripple Prime, referencing contracts on Trade.xyz via Hyperliquid. For $HYPE, this is more like a "business lead scorecard" rather than a short-term scorecard. Gateway open ≠ continuous usage ≠ revenue realization; HYPE’s price still has to move on its own. It has still dropped about 6% in the past week, and the market is clearly waiting for solid data (￣▽￣)~*
Regarding $XRP, the same announcement needs to be read carefully: allowing RLUSD as collateral does not mean institutions must buy XRP. Progress with affiliated companies exists, but token benefits still need to be driven by specific demand; "available" should not be directly translated as "must buy" (¬‿¬)
The experience with $BICO is quite smooth: it covers transaction fees and supports payment with other tokens. But while users are more convenient, someone has to bear the costs. Rather than focusing on how many applications have been connected, I want to watch who is continuously paying and whether payments can cover costs. After all, the buzz is at the gateway, but the revenue is what counts in the ledger ( •̀ ω •́ )✧
#Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期 $ZEC has been adjusting for 20 days. After the last violent pump, it took more than a month to adjust and reach a new high?
The largest $ZEC whale on HYPE is still active and has accumulated an additional 6,126.64 coins through TWAP, with a transaction volume of 7.2049 million USD, an average cost of 1,176 USD per coin, increasing the position by about 57.5%;
After adding to the position, his ZEC long position increased to 16,779.74 coins, valued at 19.4863 million USD, with an average price of 1,179.65 USD, currently at an unrealized loss of about 307,900 USD, with a liquidation price of 838.19 USD;
This whale started trading ZEC as early as July 19, this round of positions began on September 6, and no reduction in position has been observed so far.
In addition, he holds 1,121,300 $NEAR long coins, valued at 5.691 million USD with an unrealized profit of 89,500 USD; and 1 billion $PUMP long coins, valued at 4.455 million USD with an unrealized profit of 85,900 USD. The three long positions total approximately 29.6323 million USD, with $ZEC accounting for 65.8%!! South Korea's pension fund suffers a massive loss of $137 billion; is the South Korean economy really "finished"? Recently, dragged down by the stock price declines of semiconductor giants Samsung Electronics ($SAMSUNG) and SK Hynix ($SKHYNIX), the National Pension Service (NPS) of South Korea has incurred an unrealized loss of about $137 billion. This marks the first quarterly decline for the fund since Q4 2024, a sharp reversal for the NPS which had just set a record high return in the first half of the year. For a moment, pessimistic views claiming "South Korea is done" have surged. Expert perspectives conclude that it is too early to make such a definitive judgment, but it must not be taken lightly either. This $137 billion loss more so reflects the deep structural vulnerabilities exposed in an economy highly dependent on a single industry, facing drastic changes in the global capital cycle and technological landscape. First, this is a technical correction, not a systemic collapse. The NPS loss is an unrealized paper loss, not a realized cash loss. With total assets reaching about $1.35 trillion, this $137 billion shrinkage accounts for roughly 10% of its total portfolio. Although painful, it is far from debilitating or shaking the foundation of the pension system. However, alarms have been raised as the cracks in South Korea's "K-shaped economy" ($KR200) are widening. The South Korean economy is a typical case of semiconductor export boom alongside shrinking domestic demand industries. By the end of 2025, 19.1% of South Korea's non-financial enterprises are "zombie companies," with the real estate sector's proportion even higher at 43.7%. Meanwhile, household debt as a percentage of GDP isSaylor believes that Bitcoin is returning to a bull market.
But more than his statement, I am more focused on what he mentioned about the next 12 to 24 months: banks accelerating the provision of Bitcoin custody and related credit services, as well as securities tokenization.
If these businesses gradually take shape, Bitcoin's growth logic may no longer rely solely on ETF capital inflows, but further enter the traditional financial custody, collateral, and credit systems.
ETFs solve how investors gain BTC exposure; bank custody and collateral lending may allow Bitcoin to enter broader financial application scenarios.
Of course, whether banks will scale up these businesses depends on regulation, risk management, and actual customer demand.
Another piece of news worth paying attention to is Strategy's STRC.This week, the market still seems unable to avoid the war between the US and Iran, especially the oil prices, which is really a headache. In September, US gasoline prices rose 9.1% month-on-month, and this alone contributed to more than half of the monthly CPI increase. The market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not rush to raise interest rates in October, but the expectation of a rate hike in December has already emerged. If the issue in the Strait of Hormuz is not resolved soon and oil prices continue to run high, the costs of transportation, manufacturing, and food will sooner or later be passed downstream, and the Fed might have to continue raising rates in 2027.
What’s more troublesome is that there are only about two weeks left until the US midterm elections on November 3. High gasoline prices, high living costs, and high loan interest rates are things that ordinary people feel every day—I even feel sorry for Trump.
Looking at last week’s semiconductor and AI sectors, they were also tossed around quite a bit. The market is now starting to worry about when AI companies will be able to recoup the huge amounts of money they have invested. Especially those companies borrowing money to build data centers and buy GPUs—interest rates have not come down, new financing is expensive, refinancing old debt is also costly, and cash flow pressure is increasing. If downstream customers slow down their expansion, the order expectations for chip companies like Nvidia will have to be adjusted accordingly, and stock prices often react earlier than actual orders.
BTC is now moving so closely with tech stocks that when the Nasdaq falls, the crypto circle also finds it hard to stay unaffected. This week, I’m mainly watching two things: whether oil prices can come down and whether AI financing pressure will continue to expand. As long as these two issues haven’t eased, it will probably not be easy for tech stocks and BTC to stage a decent rebound.INJ has been trending on the hot search list these past two days, and today it surged into the top three again.
The 4-hour K-line from 4 AM to 8 AM was quite strong, jumping directly from 7.79 to 8.83, an increase of about 13% in 4 hours. After that, it didn't surge further and has been consolidating between 8.39 and 8.74, currently around 8.60.
The key levels I'm watching:
Above, 8.78–8.83 is a resistance zone; yesterday's and this morning's highs were stuck here. Above that is 9.42, reached on the 16th, when over 300 million USD volume was traded, with many trapped above.
Below, 8.39–8.45 are the lows from two pullbacks today.
So my plan is to buy on dips, not chase:
🎯 Bias: Bullish
🎯 Entry: 8.40–8.48
🎯 Stop loss: 8.18, if it falls here, it means more than 60% of the morning rally was given back, so admit the mistake
🎯 Target: Take half off at 8.83, hold the rest aiming around 9.30
If the 4H candle closes with volume above 8.85, wait for a pullback that doesn't break support before following; if the 4H closes below 8.39, this plan is void, stay out and wait.
Funding rate is near zero, open interest around 35 million USD, not crowded. Small coins are volatile, keep leverage low 😅
$INJ #INJ #ContractStrategy
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR$HYPE, here are some numbers for you to consider.
Four hundred thousand wallets, a net loss of $280 million on Hyperliquid in one year. I encountered half of this number at noon, now compiling the whole: these wallets accessed through six common wallet apps, and over half of the withdrawn amount is just fees. $100 per transaction, and those wallets charge an additional 0.65% to 1.45% on the base rate.
My first reaction wasn’t sympathy, but respect—this isn’t decentralized trading, it’s like setting up a toll station and making people queue.
The money lost by placing orders yourself is still less than what’s taken in fees. Isn’t that absurd? Meanwhile, HYPE keeps burning tens of thousands daily through buybacks at an average price of 78.5. The exchange profits steadily, users consistently lose, this model is so solid it makes your teeth itch. It’s currently at 79.92, down 8.2% in 7 days, despite all the coin burning, the price still follows the market slump.
The fee business is the fattest pit in the crypto world. Don’t rush to curse, the slippage and spread you pay when trading contracts have already made you a shareholder in this business. $HYPE $BTC: The respectable $80,000 level propped up by an "options wall" is not a sign of spot buying returning
CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations; according to the old script, $BTC should have dropped to the 70,000 range, but $80,000 held firm. Looking at options, there is a large open interest at the $80,000 strike price, with market makers passively buying to hedge Gamma as the price approaches, creating temporary stickiness. Fear and greed index rose from 53 to 60, resembling structural support. In October, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of over $600 million; CoinShares characterizes this as a tug-of-war rather than a reversal. The cushion will thin out with the October 16 expiration and position migration.
$ETH: 2500 is a sentiment rebound, not a revival of the deflation narrative
The "ultrasound money" label is now a stretch: 2,955 new coins minted in 24 hours, 13.59 burned, with burn accounting for only 0.46% of new issuance; year-to-date burn only offsets 2.07% of issuance. L2s like Base are absorbing users and fees, leaving the mainnet burn starved of fuel, with circulating supply increasing by over 80,000 coins monthly. The 2500 rebound looks more like a risk appetite recovery after a drop, not an on-chain supply-demand improvement.
$BTC relies on options hedging, $ETH on lingering sentiment; macro conditions remain tight, and $ETH supply is still growing. Both holding and rebounding are possible, but sustainability is questionable.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 A large number of airdrops have been liquidated. What should be the next choice?
According to TokenPost data, on October 16th within 24 hours, short liquidations accounted for 51.79%, with about $115 million in short positions liquidated, and ETH short liquidations reaching as high as 63%.
BTC short positions: the last stronghold or the next domino to fall?
Although BTC's rebound this round is smaller than ETH and SOL, the logic of short squeeze has not disappeared. If the market tests the previous high area again, the remaining short positions will directly enter the forced liquidation range.
Institutional funds are still watching. The US spot ETH ETF has seen net outflows on 11 of the past 12 trading days, and institutional funds have not massively returned. The lack of incremental buying means the rebound height may be limited, but it also means that once there is a new macro catalyst, the short squeeze could come more fiercely.
Technically neutral to bearish, but support remains. BTC's RSI is about 48.9, in the neutral range; the 50-day EMA is at $80,407, and the 200-day EMA is at $75,759, with the long-term trend still leaning bullish. The $80,000 round number is a key support below, and $81,603 is a short-term resistance level. If BTC holds above $80,000, shorts still have some breathing room; if it breaks below $80,000, short profits may quickly expand, but it could also trigger a new round of long liquidations, causing more intense volatility.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 10x short position, account leverage is only 1.94x
Two perpetual short positions, $XRP and $BTC, both 10x full margin.
What does this number mean: 10x is the single position leverage, not the account leverage.
The combined margin of the two positions only accounts for a small portion of the account.
So the overall leverage is just 1.94x, which can be calculated by working backward.
What he actually did: placed short orders at a high level, with floating profit already over one million.
Maintaining a margin ratio of 6220%, meaning it is far from liquidation.
What really needs to be guarded against is not liquidation, but a rapid rebound spike.
With 10x full margin, if the price moves 10% against the position, the single position margin will be gone.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？
#$XRP $BTC 10月19日，马斯克宣布明年将向全美约7200万至7337万名儿童每人赠送一股SpaceX股票，按146.03美元股价计算，总价值约105亿至107亿美元。消息公布后，SpaceX盘前股价上涨约1.53%，逼近150美元关口。 $SPCX $xSPCX 这是好事还是坏事？分两个层面看。 利好的一面，是教科书级别的“心智与政治护城河”。 用仅占SpaceX总市值约0.55%的股份，买下了全美下一代的心智绑定。7200万儿童背后是同等数量的家庭，任何试图对SpaceX加税、反垄断或限制星链/星舰发展的政客，都将被置于“抢夺全美儿童未来”的对立面。这些孩子长大后，买特斯拉、用星链、甚至未来去火星旅游，都会带有“我是股东”的天然亲近感。更长远地看，这相当于为SpaceX预埋了数千万“原生长期持股人”，形成潜在的持续买盘。 风险的一面，同样清晰。 这批股票锁定至2027年才能出售，接收者拿到的是与市场情绪挂钩的投机性价值，没有即时流动性，也不对应任何当前盈利。SpaceX目前除星链外，其他业务板块仍在亏损，整体市盈率为负，市销率超过80倍，估值本身高度依赖“故事”而非盈利支撑。赠送股票并不会改The sugar coating of Uptober has fallen off 😅, and the bulls were awakened by a cold splash of macro factors this week.
Trigger: Oil prices surpassed 100 yuan, the risk in the Strait of Hormuz escalated, the 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.2%, the US dollar index hit an 18-month high, and the Federal Reserve shifted from "rate cuts" to "possible rate hikes" 🔥.
Money first fled: BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of nearly $680 million in a single week, the largest since June; ETH ETFs have been bleeding for more than ten consecutive days; nearly $1 billion was liquidated in a single day, with bulls accounting for 80% 💸.
The three brothers diverged: BTC fell from 87,000 to 81,000, now rebounding to 82,400, with 81,000 support temporarily stable; ETFs rebounded in the latter half of the week, showing the strongest resilience; ETH fell below 2,500 and is bottoming around 2,420, ETH/BTC under pressure, staking unlocks + lack of breakout products make it hard to strengthen independently; HYPE gave back the gains from early this month, down about 12% for the week at $79, with high beta retreating and taking the first hit 📉.
My judgment: This looks more like macro deleveraging rather than an endogenous crypto collapse. $BTC's 81,000 is the watershed; if it doesn't break, it will maintain the range, but if it falls below, look to 78,000; ETH failing to reclaim 2,600 means no reversal. Don't chase rebounds in the short term; wait for US Treasury yields and oil prices to cool down and risk appetite to warm up before acting ⏳. #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 [Breaking News] Dubai's actual GDP declined by 2.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year. By sector, wholesale and retail, real estate, and transportation and warehousing sectors faced significant pressure; the financial and insurance industry grew counter-trend by 8.8%, and construction saw a slight increase. The data reflects that trade and logistics were dragged down by regional geopolitical and shipping disruptions, but high value-added industries such as finance and healthcare continued to expand, showing a differentiated economic structure. Market interpretation suggests Dubai is reducing its reliance on traditional re-export trade and accelerating its transformation towards finance and high-end services. Key follow-up indicators include port transshipment data, real estate sales, and foreign investment implementation.
Note: This information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice Rising oil prices are putting new pressure on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
According to this set of data, U.S. gasoline prices rose 9.1% month-over-month in September, contributing to more than half of that month's CPI increase.
This means that a significant portion of the inflationary pressure that month came from energy prices.
Gasoline is a key indicator because it directly affects household travel costs and can also transmit through transportation and logistics to other goods.
If oil prices continue to rise, inflation may come under renewed pressure. Even if core inflation remains relatively moderate for the time being, the Federal Reserve cannot ignore the risks posed by sustained increases in energy prices.
This also explains why the market is revisiting the possibility of interest rate hikes.
However, it is important to note that rising oil prices do not necessarily mean the Federal Reserve will raise rates.
Policy direction will also depend on subsequent inflation data, employment conditions, economic growth, and whether the energy shock spreads to a broader range of goods and service prices.
For the crypto market, this macro link is worth tracking:
Rising oil prices → increased inflationary pressure → potential cooling of rate cut expectations → changes in interest rate expectations and the dollar's movement → impact on risk asset valuations.
What really matters next is not which meeting the market is betting on today, but whether oil prices can fall back and whether future data will force the Federal Reserve to readjust its policy direction.
What the macro market fears most is not a change in a single number, but the overturning of trading logic originally built on rate cut expectations.A nationwide airdrop for Americans 🪂
Elon Musk said that in 2027, every American child will receive one share of $SPCX stock. There is no restriction to newborns, so it is reasonably assumed to be for everyone under 18 years old.
This group currently numbers 72,021,348 people, roughly the same next year. At the current price of $150 per share, that amounts to $10.8 billion, about 0.5464% of the total shares.
Elon Musk personally holds 46.04% of the shares, which will unlock all at once next June. The 0.55% involved here is just a small fraction, so it’s not a big issue.
How will these shares be distributed? Possibly through Trump Accounts, which could also help improve relations with President Trump.
In fact, on July 6 this year, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell announced that she and her husband would gift SpaceX shares to over 2 million American children aged 11-17 in low-income areas via Trump Accounts, one share each, with a total value exceeding $320 million. Today’s announcement from Elon Musk can be seen as an expansion to all American children.$KAITO
Crypto information has become abundant, but attention remains a limited resource. Kaito focuses on organizing crypto-related information and attention, an area where AI can help users navigate crowded narratives. The challenge is separating genuine insight from social noise. Its longer-term relevance will depend on whether users and projects continue finding value in its information tools after market enthusiasm shifts to the next trending sector.$BTC dominance remains at 60.2%, but the entire market fell 2.34% in 24 hours. Bitcoin didn't give way; the sectors that surged fiercely were a series of tokenized stock sectors. rStocks, Stonk, tokenized ETFs, and ETPs all refer to the same thing: US stocks on-chain. These sectors are all small in scale, with the largest only at $650 million. Remora surged 802% in one day, relying on its small market cap. USDT market cap basically didn't move in one day, with no new money coming in. Dominance staying high indicates that funds haven't massively left $BTC. This is a scenario where existing market volume squeezes into a small corner with a story during a bear market. Fear and greed dropped from 69 a week ago to 59; sentiment is retreating, and hot money will be more selective. I judge that this rotation won't last long. The end signals to watch for are two: dominance continuing to rise from 60.2%, or the daily gains of tokenized ETFs and ETPs narrowing to single digits. If either occurs, this round is considered over.Last week, US spot ETFs had a total redemption of 548 million: BTC saw 228.4 million redeemed, ETH saw 320.1 million redeemed.
Institutional money is flowing out, and this topic quickly shot to the top of the trending list—everyone is asking, who will return first?
BTC is now at 82,860, up 1.42%. On paper, "withdrawal" and "receipt" are happening simultaneously: ETFs redeemed 228 million, but large wallets have actually accumulated 86,000 coins since mid-September. Some institutions estimate that this year, the combined buying from ETFs and corporate treasuries cannot absorb the supply from long-term holders, with a gap of about 127,300 coins—but whales are catching them at the bottom. ETH is now at 2,436, up 1.15%, suffering more: last week’s outflow was nearly 100 million more than BTC. Unless the bleeding stops first, any daily gains are just paper gains. SOL is at 105.77, up 2.4%, the strongest among the three main coins, but the upgrade the day after tomorrow is an event-driven catalyst, so don’t take its rise as a signal of institutional return.
My view: 1. ETH’s weekly outflow of 320 million is not narrowing, so talk of return is empty; 2. BTC’s withdrawal and receipt happen simultaneously, whoever can hold on first will stabilize first; 3. SOL is an event-driven token, not a capital-driven one. I bet BTC will stabilize first, ETH’s rebound will have to wait until next week’s ETF turns positive. Who are you siding with? Don't chase! The sharp rise of UNI is just a bait drawn by the whales; chasing longs under 90% control is just giving away for free!
Remember this, friends: Candlestick charts can be drawn, but the flow of real money can't be fooled.
Take a look at the 1-hour chart, it rose sharply from 6.8 to 7.4, but check the capital flow: a bit of inflow in a short time, yet 8.31 million U ran out in one day, and 250 million in 15 days! What does this mean? The whales use a little money to make the chart look good just to trick us into taking the bags, while conveniently blowing up the short positions above 7.4. Plus, with 90% of the chips in their hands, even the CME futures rally today didn't push it up, indicating big institutions are not in a hurry and may even be secretly short hedging.
Trading advice: For those wanting to short, wait for it to push up again to 7.6-7.8 and try a light short;
For going long at the current price, can it hold at 7.2?
$UNI $ZEC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ The pre-market rebound today is indeed quite strong, especially with Bitcoin spiking above 83k. It really doesn't follow the US stock market's decline; once the US stocks rebound, the strong get stronger. Although I can't be sure why Bitcoin is so resilient this round, I roughly guess it's because the real interest rate expectations have stabilized.
Although we are still in a rate-hiking cycle with about two more hikes totaling 50 basis points expected, the market consensus is that this rate-hiking cycle is short. So the negative impact isn't as severe as anticipated.
Another possibility is that although AI, especially storage, has dropped sharply, this round is different from the one in July. The market isn't panicking broadly, or you could say most retail investors have already deleveraged last time. This time prices have fallen a lot but the pain is much less.
So this round of decline might actually be a rotation, fundamentally different from the widespread deleveraging in July.
Even from the perspective of long-term interest rates, easing has actually already happened on the Treasury side. The Treasury's quasi "twist operation" and Waller's hawkish rhetoric are at odds. This brings us back to the US version of YCC logic: the Fed manages nominal short-term rates, the Treasury manages duration and liquidity, and the net effect is favorable for Bitcoin.
In short, since Bitcoin has proven its strength, our mindset should shift from the previous bear market mentality, and our trading approach should change from shorting on rallies to buying on dips. BTC has already dropped 9%, and the most critical level now is the $80,000 mark. If it rebounds but still can't hold above that, $80,000 could turn from support into resistance, and further declines wouldn't be surprising.
But I don't think it's necessary to call it a bear market just because of this drop. In past Bitcoin cycles, pullbacks before halving often reached around 20%, and in the late bull market phases, corrections of 30% or even deeper are not uncommon. If this bull market is still in its early stages, a 30% deep correction shouldn't be considered the default scenario.
By this logic, a retracement of 11% to 22% from the cycle high can be considered within the observation range. It has already dropped 9%, so it's indeed approaching a level worth watching closely. However, don't treat historical patterns as guarantees; if the cycle phase is misjudged, the so-called bottom-buying zone could be broken through continuously.
I tend to advise against rushing to go all in. Those who want to buy can plan their positions in advance, splitting their funds into several parts and buying in batches weekly or monthly. If the price drops further, you get a bigger discount; if it doesn't, you won't miss out entirely. Dollar-cost averaging can't guarantee buying at the lowest point, but at least it spares you the mental stress of guessing the bottom every day.
The issue now isn't about guessing the absolute lowest price, but about how much risk you're willing to take to acquire cheaper chips. For the remainder of 2026, phased buying might be more suitable for ordinary people than betting on a perfect bottom.The dividend narrative of the Ethereum liquid staking sector is undergoing a harsh reality check. ETHFI is priced at $0.64, with a market cap of $620 million, down over 4% in 24 hours, and a trading volume of only $1.16 million — this liquidity can't even satisfy the daily hedging needs of market makers. The price fluctuates narrowly between $0.69 and $0.64, with buy orders so thin they are almost nonexistent.
Smart money signals still show net short positions, net holdings at zero, with no long traders willing to stand guard. This is not institutional bearishness but a complete loss of interest: even the cost of shorting capital is unwilling to be borne. The social aspect is even more dead silent, with bullish and bearish ratios both at zero, and no ranking in popularity. When a protocol token that should benefit from Ethereum staking rewards can't even maintain basic discussion, it indicates the market has voted with its feet — confidence in the protocol revenue dividend model has collapsed.
The core contradiction of ETHFI lies in: weak growth in protocol fee income, while token release pressure persists. The moat of liquid staking protocols is being squeezed from both sides by Lido's stETH monopoly and emerging re-staking protocols. Unless the protocol can launch substantial yield enhancement mechanisms or capture more MEV revenue, the token will continue to grind at the bottom in a downward valuation restructuring channel.
Core judgment: The failure of the dividend narrative combined with token unlocking pressure means it is difficult to see a reversal rally before fundamental improvements become marginal.$BTC rebound supported by futures, ETH shorts liquidated, Celo quietly passed a Gas fee vote On October 19, the market saw a long-awaited "Green Monday," but beneath this broad rally, the intrinsic driving forces of assets were completely different. Here are three new developments worth noting today. Bitcoin: Rebounded past 83,000 but driven by leverage rather than spot BTC rebounded from a low of $80,671, briefly surpassing $83,000 intraday. On the surface, it looks like sentiment recovery, but structurally there is a key divergence: futures 24-hour trading volume reached $43.18 billion, 12.4 times the spot volume of $3.48 billion; open interest totaled about $52.76 billion, with liquidations around $63.87 million during the same period. This indicates the rebound heavily relies on derivatives leverage, with spot buying not increasing correspondingly. The $83,000 level is a touchstone to test the rebound's strength; failure to hold it may mean this is just a short-term pulse driven by short covering. Ethereum: Shorts face a concentrated stampede, Vitalik and JPMorgan release signals on the same day $ETH rose above $2,400, triggering a wave of short liquidations. CoinGlass data shows that during the ETH rebound, 97% of liquidations within one hour were short positions, with total 24-hour liquidations exceeding $300 million; one address shorted with 25x leverage, some positions forcibly closed near $2,409, with remaining liquidation prices around $2,430. The crowded short structure was precisely triggered. On the same day, two infrastructure signals are worth attention. VitalThe daily line of ETH at 2378 has experienced multiple battles between bulls and bears. Previously, it acted as resistance and was broken through; now it has turned into strong support, making this position a key point. The current price is above this level, and the liquidity gap above still needs to be filled. This area is the primary resistance zone for the price to rebound upward and the target for bull liquidity sweeps.
If 2378 does not break, combined with short-term stabilization, the price should move toward the upper gap. This area has a magnetic effect, attracting major players to sweep liquidity upward.
The main strategy is to buy the dip above 2378-2400, with a stop loss below 2378. Short-term take profit is at 2500-2510, and wave take profit at 2623-2682. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 That late-night spike over the weekend is more invigorating than coffee. So is this the final washout of the accumulation phase, or just a pause in the downtrend? I was a bit surprised by the volume this morning; weekends are usually quiet, yet ETH stirred some action around 2315 before pulling back above 2400. This rhythm feels more like a game of speculation—not chasing the rally, but not full-blown panic either. The collapse in the South Korean stock market is worrying; memories of an 80% drop in a week have resurfaced, and the current 60% drop is indeed eye-catching. After the sharp plunge in US stocks, there was no decent rebound, and the tech sector took another 5% hit this morning. External risk appetite is clearly contracting. The signal I see is this: there is support near 2315, and the momentum to push lower after breaking that level is insufficient, so the chance of a deep short-term dip is suppressed. But this is not a sign of strength—just that the bears are temporarily out of steam. The real variable will be Monday’s South Korean market open; buy orders above 10 on koru exceed fifty million dollars. If that support fails, it could trigger a new round of selling, turning ETH’s 2400 level into a confirmation of a rebound rather than a starting point. Bullish scenario: support holds, BTC stabilizes without breaking previous lows, ETH holds around 2380, oversold altcoins begin to recover, and risk appetite shifts from contraction to localized testing. Bearish risk: South Korean market opens weak, tech stocks continue to suffer, the low-volume weekend rebound is invalidated, ETH retests 2315 or even lower, and risk appetite shifts directly from speculation to defense. The market is no longer trading on rate cut fantasies but on the contagion speed from external stock markets. After CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, the rate hike topic resurfaced, but it is truly weighing on risk appetite