Orbit Post Sitemap
BTC target prices of $1.3 million and $2.9 million: which is more optimistic? Don't rush to choose: the former looks at 2035, the latter at 2050, a full 15 years apart.
Bitwise's ten-year model introduced on August 25, 2025, predicts about $1.3 million by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of 28.3%. VanEck's long-term study on January 8, 2026, gives a baseline scenario of $2.9 million by 2050, with a compound annual growth rate of about 15%. Both start from their respective starting points at the time and you can't directly apply these annualized figures to today's price.
This creates a contrast: the higher end figure implies a slower growth rate. Ranking institutions by target price alone would overlook the time span.
The demand assumptions they rely on also differ. Bitwise estimates how much capital institutions allocate and how much the store-of-value market can allocate to BTC; VanEck further envisions BTC taking on part of international trade settlement and entering central bank reserves. If these demands do not materialize, the model's end point lacks support.
Subsequent tracking should focus on actual allocations, trade usage, and reserve purchases, rather than treating research report figures as guaranteed commitments. This article compares two publicly available studies; it is not a new upward revision today, nor does it treat targets from different years as disagreements within the same timeframe.
Sources and original charts: Bitwise official statement 8/25/2025; VanEck research 1/8/2026, reviewed 10/20. $BTC Trillions in BTCFi Dreams Shattered: Core's 8.31 Incident Shows the Market That Bitcoin Is Not a Cure-All
The market once envisioned that leveraging Bitcoin's hash power and native time locks could awaken trillions of dormant BTC and create a robust new BTCFi world. But the Core 8.31 incident shattered this simple fantasy: Bitcoin is not a universal remedy.
Throughout the incident, Bitcoin's mainnet hash power remained stable, users' staked BTC principal was safe, and private keys were self-custodied without theft. The vulnerability occurred in Core's upper-layer EVM reward contract, where a minority of validators repeatedly claimed rewards, causing an excessive issuance of CORE tokens. The project team hard-forked to destroy 186 million illicit tokens but still left 69 million ghost tokens escaped, continuously diluting holders' equity.
Everyone finally saw the layered risks clearly: Bitcoin's hash power is responsible for securing the BTC ledger and can only solve the problem of principal theft; it cannot control token inflation, contract logic, or node governance. Equating Bitcoin's security with the entire BTCFi ecosystem's security is a huge misconception.
For BTCFi to succeed, Bitcoin is only the security foundation; supporting contract audits, token models, and node checks and balances are all indispensable. Relying solely on Bitcoin's endorsement cannot cover up the flaws of the upper-layer protocols themselves. ZEC Trend Forecast:
NU7: After developers review the testnet results today, the mainnet activation height will be determined. The testnet passed on 10-04, and governance voting shows 99.9% support for 25-second block times. "Go" is highly likely, while delay/no-go is less likely.
1. Mainly consolidation (high probability): "Go" implementation is expected; price will range between $1,075–1,250, with attention shifting to the "buy expectation" window on 11-05 activation. Sudden spikes up or down at the announcement moment are normal.
2. Upward breakout: Requires two signals simultaneously: daily close above $1,250 and ETF capital inflow. However, there have been net outflows for three consecutive weeks, with $10.45 million outflow on 10-19 alone, indicating institutions are taking profits. Only a $527 million BTC inflow could indirectly support it.
3. Breakdown downward: Breaking below $1,075 opens targets at $1,050/$1,000; fxempire even set an extreme technical target at $680. Triggers include: NU7 delay, BTC dropping below 80,000, or confirmation that 35,700 ZEC from ILITY were stolen and dumped—this remains unresolved and is the darkest variable.
In short: ZEC’s direction in the coming days depends not on NU7 itself but on whether funds follow after the decision. Watch the $1,075 and $1,250 lines; whichever breaks first dictates direction, with the middle range being noise. Is the FOMC going to pause rate hikes? Don't rush to celebrate; the Fed isn't softening, it's waiting for the CPI to give a way out.
September's CPI at 3.7% is still hot. Bowman says "no rush," Williams insists "more hikes by year-end," inside the Fed it's like a family dinner—some want to add dishes, others want to settle the bill.
$BTC ETF swept up 527 million in one go yesterday, BlackRock itself took 665 million, and it was still fleeing last week. The ETF is like a cat starved for three days, pouncing at the scent, but the price is still stuck around 81,500.
$ETH feels more like a forgotten spare tire. October ETF outflows hit 955 million, the worst this year. JPM Coin did launch on Ethereum mainnet, institutions are redeeming ETFs while using the chain—more schizophrenic than my short positions.
$ZEC dropped from 1690 to 1125, down 33%, Grayscale's ZCSH has been running for weeks, withdrawing 140 million. My 500 short is still open, just waiting for the NU7 upgrade "good news exhaustion" cut. If 1100 doesn't hold, 1000 is next.
What I think should be done most before the FOMC: tie your hands. Pause means "no hike," not "cut." The real variable is CPI—if core month-on-month really hits 0.4%, that's not a pause, that's halftime, with overtime still to come.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
@你的爱播Misa @毓鑫YuXin @good323267 @bilibili交易姬 Netflix earnings report tonight
Lately, a lot of people have been pessimistic
US downloads dropped by 20%, viewing time surpassed by YouTube...
But I actually think this EPS will come out better than expected
The market consensus is only $0.84, I bet it will beat that
Here are my reasons👇
1️⃣ A 6% layoff isn't a bad thing
Everyone only sees the layoffs, but I see that they are seriously cutting costs to boost profits
When a leader starts focusing on EPS, the numbers usually don't look too bad
2️⃣ Advertising + live streaming are starting to make money
Jefferies estimates ad revenue could reach $7.5 billion
Plus, they have been aggressively competing for big sports live events like the World Cup
I think the market hasn't factored this in yet
3️⃣ Expectations are already very low
Honestly, $0.84 is not a high bar
As long as it slightly exceeds that, there's a good chance of a post-market surge
So I'm betting Yes tonight: EPS > 0.84
Those calling streaming dead now, let's see tomorrow 😏
What do you think? Leave a comment with your bet
Let's see the real results tonight
(Personal opinion only, not investment advice, make your own judgments with your own money)The market mostly analyzes SPCX's earnings report by separately breaking down Starlink, AI computing power, and Starship, but it underestimates their synergistic flywheel.
AI computing power is no longer about blindly burning money: Colossus relies on long-term contracts to lock in cash flow, expanding production according to orders, with a clear improvement in loss reduction slope. Starlink offsets consumer-side pressure through high-margin government, enterprise, and Starshield businesses, serving as the cash foundation of the ecosystem.
Starship is the core cost lever, which, once mature, will significantly reduce satellite deployment costs. The closed loop empowerment of rockets, satellites, and computing power is difficult to replicate.
Risks remain: progress on Starship, price wars in computing power, and regulation all require caution. But this earnings report confirms the acceleration of the flywheel; its value lies not in any single business but in its unique ecosystem premium. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Folks, the just-released US weekly ADP employment data has sent a new signal to the market.
The latest figure is 18,500, a significant drop from the previous 26,000. Look at the bar chart below; from the high of 25,000 at the end of September, there's a clear downward trend.
What does this data indicate? It once again confirms that the US labor market is cooling down. The previous big nonfarm payrolls data was a major surprise on the downside, and now the ADP weekly data is weakening as well. The fatigue in the job market is undeniable.
For us in the crypto space, this is a short-term positive sentiment. Why? Because the Fed's two biggest headaches right now are inflation and employment. Although inflation (CPI and PPI) remains high, if the job market really can't hold up, the Fed's confidence to continue raising rates will be greatly undermined. The market is currently betting over 80% that the October FOMC meeting will hold rates steady, and this employment data adds fuel to the "pause rate hikes" argument.
But don't get too happy too soon. Although rate hike expectations have cooled, long-term US Treasury yields are still stubbornly above 5.5%, keeping funding costs high. This is why Bitcoin has been struggling around the 80,000 mark, unable to break up or down. $BTC In the futures market, when I see large positions with high leverage, I usually first calculate how much adverse movement it can withstand before listening to the reasoning about the direction. The nominal amount looks intimidating, but what really determines whether you can stay in the market is the margin and exit discipline.
This time the monitoring shows that Core Trader 29 (0x51651b…dfb1e) opened a short position on $XYZ100 with 30x leverage, with a nominal position value of about $300,000. This is an opening signal; the result is not out yet, so I won’t interpret a bold move as a sure bet.
Roughly calculating by dividing the nominal value by leverage, the initial margin corresponds to about $10,000; if the price rises 1% against the short, the loss is about $3,000, which is about 30% of this estimated margin, not including fees. Even if the direction is later judged correct, the intermediate volatility could break through risk controls first.
What makes the crypto market different from traditional futures is that you can see this action on-chain, but not necessarily the full picture: total wallet equity, whether there are other hedges—this information is not disclosed here. So my judgment is that the key focus for this trade should be the risk budget, not treating the $300,000 as persuasive evidence for a bearish view.
Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? When encountering such a 30x short, do you prioritize checking the account margin or first look at the stop-loss distance, and why?$SOXL, a triple-leveraged product, drops irrationally. It fell from 105.13 to 92.72 within 24 hours, a -10.48% drop, current price 93.11, MA20 at 96.98, price still 4% below.
The most important candle to watch today is at 16:00: the highest volume of the day, 304,112, surged to 96.43, closed at 95.24, with an upper shadow pushed back down. A volume surge that can't break through is not a start, but a distribution point. The next four highs were 95.69, 95.62, 94.63, 93.87, each lower than the last, and at 20:00 it pierced a new low of 92.72 again.
Leveraged ETFs have a hidden enemy—time. If it moves sideways, it bleeds on its own, so I won't go long waiting for a rebound.
Conditions: If it rebounds to 95.2~95.7 with volume and closes bearish, go short, stop loss at 96.5, target 92.72, if broken look at 88.47, risk-reward 2.4;
If it closes above 96.5 with volume, short positions are invalid.
21:30 US stock market opening is a turning point, don't stubbornly hold before and after the open.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)To pour some cold water first, a slight drop does not equal cheap; I am not buying into the logic of "a pullback is an opportunity" for now. According to CoinDesk, amid Asian stock market declines and rising crude oil prices, Bitcoin fell about 1.1% in 24 hours to around $81,466. QCP Capital warned that further stock market weakness could suppress demand, and the $80,000 support might be tested. My judgment is cautious, but "might be tested" is not the same as "will definitely break."
I am mainly watching two things: first, if the stock market deleveraging continues, funds might prioritize margin calls and risk reduction rather than turning to buy $BTC, so cheap prices may not necessarily attract support. Second, if oil prices continue to rise, it could exacerbate inflation concerns and weaken market expectations for easing. This is my speculation; we cannot conclude that transmission is complete based on one day’s drop; likewise, we cannot assume safety just by looking at a round number level.
Of course, the bulls might be right. If the stock market continues to weaken but Bitcoin holds steady or even sees sustained support, I will reduce my concerns about cross-market contagion. The bears also need to look at evidence and cannot treat analysts’ conditional statements as verdicts. Facing this $80,000 support test, are you bullish or bearish? State your reasons: do you value the round number support more, or the pressure from stock market deleveraging?$SNDK SanDisk pre-market drops over 2%, don't rush to bottom-fish! Following the trend to short is the way to go!!
Last night, US storage stocks were actually quite strong, SanDisk rose over 5%, $SKHYNIX SK Hynix also rose over 4%.
But this morning, the Korean market opened and directly collapsed, SK Hynix dropped over 4%, Samsung also weakened. So the pre-market storage sector was dragged down again, SanDisk followed and fell over 2%.
What does this mean???
US stocks are trading on benefits from price increases, Korean stocks are trading on cycle peaks. Rising last night doesn't mean stability today; once Korean stocks plunge, sentiment immediately turns cold.
Tonight's strategy is simple: 1407: last night's high, strong resistance, no talk of going long unless broken.
If the rebound to around 1340-1371 lacks volume, keep holding short positions;
If it breaks below 1321, look at 1300;
Unless it retakes 1371 and holds, do not chase longs in the short term.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC as of 2026.10.20
Average cost for short-term BTC holders: 74.56k
Average cost for long-term BTC holders: 77.73k
Of course, there may be disputes about the average cost for long-term holders, with some data showing 49.27k. But this average cost here is more like a revised result, a more precise cost calculation method, and a stricter group definition.
The average cost price, after a valid breakout, is often regarded as a strong short-term support level in the market. Conversely, it serves as a strong short-term resistance level.After the Federal Reserve's rate hike was implemented, Bitcoin rose 9.3%, Ethereum rose 2.7%, and the median increase among the other 194 tokens was 21%. Layer2 surged 32%, RWA and AI tokens each rose 29%, while meme coins and payment tokens only increased by 5%. The money hasn't left the market; it's just changing seats. The altcoin season index hit a yearly high on October 12, but the proportion of coins above the 200-day moving average has dropped from over 90% to 52% — this is not a broad rally, but a brutal selection process.
The selection criteria are becoming ruthless. The on-chain total market cap of RWA is $39.18 billion, with holders increasing by 16.3% monthly. Ant Group and HSBC are jointly testing Agent tokenized payments, and Robinhood is exploring tokenized ETFs. BlackRock's "machine-native economy" points in the same direction: AI Agents require a payment track that doesn't need human "confirmation." Stablecoins and tokenized assets are currently the only candidates with real traffic, although actual Agent commercial payments are only $5,000 to $11,000 per month.
Ansem said Q4 is the "best quarter for altcoins in a long time," because positions and sentiment are at historic lows, leaving only upward direction.
Wintermute's response is colder: without renewed net inflows into ETFs and stabilization of long-term yields, chasing low-quality altcoins is not recommended.
Protocols that can collect rent in the Agent economy, infrastructure that can handle compliant RWA flows, and tokens no longer relying on VC unlocks for survival are the real direction.
— The rest, ETF bleeding has already voted for the market.223.8 million and exiting SOL, causing the treasury stock narrative to collapse in 30 days!
Unrealized losses exceed $150 million, major shareholders refuse to participate in buybacks and question management, severely damaging market confidence. Short-term selling pressure has landed but sentiment remains bearish; the corporate coin hoarding model has been disproven. Can the current financial environment still support a BTC bull market?
Key conclusion: It can support a rebound and consolidation but is insufficient to confirm a new major bull market.
1. Macro liquidity: headwinds remain
The 10-year US Treasury yield is about 5.1%, making the opportunity cost of holding BTC high.
The Federal Reserve has not entered a sustained easing cycle; liquidity has only marginally improved.
Assessment: Macro conditions are restrained, not a flood of liquidity.
2. ETF funds: channels exist but are unstable
Large single-day net inflows alternate with monthly net outflows.
Funds are mostly trading or rebalancing types, not consistent long-term accumulation.
Assessment: Buying channels are open, but sustained inflows have not formed.
3. Institutional holdings: slow money hasn’t exited, fast money is reducing
Hedge funds and other fast money are reducing positions; advisors and banks (slow money) maintain slight increases.
Slow money has not shifted from symbolic allocation to sustained accumulation.
Assessment: Institutional structure exists, but momentum is insufficient.
4. Price structure: bull market not completely broken
BTC oscillates near $80,000, still 30%-35% below previous highs.
Key supports: $83,000 (ETF cost zone), $77,000 (active investor average), $72,000 (200-day moving average).
Assessment: Structure intact, momentum weak.
5. Leverage and risk appetite: short-term remains fragile
Previously, $19 billion in leveraged liquidations occurred, with long leverage heavy.
US stock breadth is weak, credit volatility rising.
Assessment: High leverage causing volatility, not a healthy trending bull market.
⚠️ The above is a market structure analysis and does not constitute investment advice The treasury companies are starting to "go their separate ways" 💸
Strive is still aggressively buying BTC, Strategy is busy with buybacks,
while on the other side, SkyAI has completely sold off its SOL treasury.
SkyAI, listed on Nasdaq (formerly Sharps Technology),
disclosed to the SEC on 10-19 that it still held over 2 million SOL in September,
but now it's zeroed out, with about $223.8 million cash on hand.
The money wasn’t used to buy the dip—
it launched a $3/share cash tender offer, spending $201.3 million to buy back 95% of shares and warrants,
returning cash to shareholders. The treasury isn’t hoarding coins anymore; it’s returning cash.
I think "public companies holding coins" is shifting from faith to business:
buy more if the price rises, sell off and return cash if it doesn’t.
On the day, SKYA rose 5.3%, shareholders clearly prefer cash.
Invalidation conditions: if SOL breaks above $105.7 and continues to rebound,
or if SkyAI announces a repurchase after the tender offer expires on 10-29,
then the divergent narrative won’t hold.
Are you still holding treasury concept stocks?
$SOL
#Strive大额增持，Strategy回购规模超买币 $MUBARAK $MUBARAK Triple game! Highlights of the Fed's October decision
September CPI rebounded beyond expectations, with market rate hike bets rising to 40%. But two major constraints are in sight: the heavy interest burden on U.S. debt, and the fact that this meeting is only 6 days before the midterm elections, a period historically rare for rate hikes before elections.
Expect to maintain the 4% interest rate unchanged, focusing on the speech and dot plot:
👉 Hawkish bias, keeping rate hike space, pressure on the crypto market
👉 Dovish bias, postponing rate hike suspense to December, favorable for rebound
Tug of war between bulls and bears, mainly volatile, recommended to control positions and wait for signals to materialize.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC $ETH $SNDK #Visa partners with Mesh to expand stablecoin payments to 175 million merchants
175 million merchants. 💳
Visa teams up with Mesh to directly extend stablecoin payment channels to over a billion cash registers worldwide.
If this happened during a bull market, KOLs on Twitter would hype it for at least half a month. But now?
I advise you not to get excited just yet. There are two extremely counterintuitive truths behind this.
First, the more stablecoins spread, the more awkward Bitcoin becomes.
Have you noticed? In the future, when foreigners buy a cup of coffee, the backend settlement will be all in USDC—fast and cheap. But they don’t need to hold BTC or care about any Web3 narrative. Stablecoins have become the real "on-chain dollar," while Bitcoin can only watch from the sidelines for now.
Second, infrastructure fanatics can’t fix the current "drought."
Watching the news every day, it feels like blockchain is about to dominate the world. But looking at the market?
Bitcoin is still stuck around 82,000, options volatility hits a five-year low, even the big players are lying low. Hot money is flowing into US stocks, and the 5.6% high yield on US bonds is still draining liquidity.
What is this called? It’s called "long-term extreme optimism, short-term extreme cash shortage."
Visa is building roads for the next decade, but we have to survive this winter first.
Don’t use your own principal to pay for the infrastructure of the giants.👇
What do you think about Visa’s big payment move? Is it truly good news for the crypto world, or is it draining liquidity?Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $527 million yesterday, with BlackRock being the largest buyer.
But don't just focus on that one day. Looking back from October 7th, the overall trend still shows net outflows; even including yesterday's $500+ million inflow, there was still a net outflow of just over $400 million, and without it, nearly $1 billion.
Money is coming back, but the momentum isn't strong enough to support a trend. With the Fed's expected cooling in October and risk appetite warming up, BTC touched around 82,800 on Monday, but institutional disagreements remain evident.
Next, watch two things: whether BlackRock can continue to attract funds, and whether other ETFs will follow. This will determine if it's a rebound or a reversal.
$BTC#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
Elon Musk plans to give every one of the 73 million children in the U.S. one share of SpaceX, valued at about $10.7 billion — crypto community translation: the largest "airdrop" in history.
On October 19, he personally posted on X: "Next year, I will give every child in America one share of my SpaceX stock."
Doing the math: 73 million minors according to the census, SPCX current price about $146, multiplied equals $10.7 billion.
Ironically, there are zero details: who will distribute, custodial accounts, whether it’s a dilution by new issuance or out of his own pocket — not a word.
Veteran crypto players say this plot is familiar: on May 28, the SpaceX perpetual contract oracle on Hyperliquid’s Ventuals fed wrong prices, causing a 45% crash in half an hour and liquidating 484 users.
Four days ago, he showcased the flying version of the Roadster, and Hyperliquid’s TSLA contract volume surged from 2.8 million to 47 million in one hour — the crypto world backing Musk 24/7.
I think this isn’t just throwing money around; it’s using the logic of "shares should be given directly to the public" to slap the Anthropic charity fund in the face, while conveniently creating liquidity for SpaceX.
Retail investors, don’t get carried away: $10.7 billion potential selling pressure plus dilution from new issuance — chasing this is like catching a flying knife.
If it holds above $378 (TSLA contract high that night), the excitement continues; if it falls back below $362 (Roadster release day closing price), the story ends for now. Observation: Basic physics debunks $TSLA flying car, marketing can't cover up fundamental struggles
Yann LeCun directly uses physics formulas to expose the truth: compressed air at 600 liters and 700 bar pressure actually produces effective thrust for less than 10 seconds
Faced with this hardcore science, Musk can only respond with "farting at you," which itself shows a lack of technical confidence
This so-called flying car is essentially just an empty shell with a large air tank as a marketing gimmick.
Ironically, although the car is a joke, Tesla's Q3 earnings forecast might not be bad
Deliveries of 486,000 units exceeded expectations, even though it dropped 2.1% year-over-year; profit recovery and cash flow improvement remain the core focus of the capital market
Musk is crazily hyping things at this point simply to forcibly raise attention before the earnings release.
But in the macro context of high interest rates draining liquidity and hedge funds wildly dumping tech stocks, relying solely on "PPT car-making" and verbal battles cannot sustain a high valuation
Capital ultimately only recognizes real gross margins and cash generation ability. No matter how loud the hype, it cannot change the business essence.Concerns about the AI bubble are spreading from the stock market to the crypto market. However, the capital flow is showing divergence; the spot ETF just recorded the largest single-day net inflow in a month, but almost all the new inflows come from BlackRock, while Fidelity and Grayscale are still seeing outflows. Overall, new funds are not abundant and seem more like they are picking ETF issuers. JPMorgan included Bitcoin in its ten-year outlook for the first time, and BlackRock has filed for a third Bitcoin ETF. These are long-term news and do not alleviate the current pressure.
BTC is currently at 81,458, down 1.1% in 24 hours. 81,000 is the psychological bottom line for this wave; if it breaks, the next target is 80,000. On the upside, 82,500 to 82,700 is the resistance zone for this round of fluctuations; reduce positions when it rebounds to that area.
ETH is currently at 2,384, down 1.65% in 24 hours. 2,400 has already been lost; the next support is 2,350. It has dropped 5.37% over seven days, more than twice the decline of BTC, showing a clearly weaker trend. Don’t expect it to lead the rebound.
ZEC is currently at 1,140, down 0.31% in 24 hours. It is the most resistant to decline in the last 24 hours, but it has dropped 7.34% over seven days. It doubled in a month when rising but slowly declined when falling. This kind of trend is the most wearing; don’t be fooled by the single-day drop.
To be honest, what is least lacking now are stories; what is most lacking is someone to put real money in first. If the US stock market doesn’t recover, the crypto market can’t create an independent rally on its own. Those itching to trade should hold on a bit longer; don’t mistake a rebound for a reversal.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $SOL
SkyAI liquidated all SOL, cashing out $223.8 million and exiting SOL, causing the treasury stock narrative to collapse in 30 days!
Unrealized losses exceed $150 million, major shareholders refuse to participate in buybacks and question management, severely damaging market confidence. Short-term selling pressure has landed but sentiment remains bearish; the corporate coin hoarding model has been disproven. From a long-term perspective, the resilience of the Solana ecosystem remains, SkyAI is pivoting to AI, and stablecoin infrastructure may become a new highlight.
After all the negative news is out, SOL’s trend will return to on-chain activity and application implementation, rather than the institutional coin hoarding story.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Morning, folks ☕️ while taking a break, I casually checked the market: total network open interest is 139.45 billion, a slight increase in 24 hours, with BTC, ETH, and SOL all adding positions — money is flowing in, but the direction is still a tug of war 🤼
$ETH is the most awkward: open interest at 30.748 billion, second highest gain, but 5-minute buy/sell ratio is 0.82, shorts account for 54.9%. Adding positions while selling off, 24-hour liquidation hit 111 million, 66% are shorts, shorts are being lifted, bulls are frustrated 😤
$SOL is the smoothest: open interest at 6.397 billion, fastest growth, leading gains, bulls slightly dominant. One and a half days left before the upgrade, no toggle changes, early adders have arrived 🚀
$BTC is the noisy one: open interest at 52.82 billion, smallest gain. Retail bulls still dominate, number of bearish large holders decreased, large holders hold 1.14 bias to the long side — they’re fighting among themselves 🤔
US stocks rebounded, Nasdaq up 1.57%, ETF not updated on Monday, let’s see what the on-exchange debate yields 📈
My views:
① Open interest increased but liquidations only 306 million, leverage quietly stacking, beware of sudden attacks, don’t fully load your positions ⚠️
② Retail votes with headcount, large holders vote with position size, follow the money not the talk 💰
③ SOL is the happiest but riskiest, don’t chase before the upgrade night; ETH and BTC are safer to buy on dips 🧘
Bullets loaded, don’t rush to pull the trigger. My short ant-sized position is still stuck, hoping to break even 🙏#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 别急着把昨晚的反弹当成"信心回来了"✨ 可你真的确定，这波是买盘回来了吗？ 我第一眼看到美股开盘那会儿，其实有点想笑。重工业涨跌互现，几乎五五开，真正拉指数的是科技股，纳指涨超1%。表面看是风险偏好回暖，但细看更像超卖之后的技术性修复，而不是情绪彻底翻转。资金并没有从"防守"切到"进攻"，它只是暂时停止了撤退。 这个区别很关键。因为技术性回补和真实配置盘进场，交易的是两套东西。前者快、脆、容易熄火；后者慢，但会沉淀。现在更像前者。 币圈这边也跟着动了。BTC 盘中最高涨超1.4%，但推动力主要来自空头被挤，24小时清算约1.8亿美元，其中空单约1.1亿。也就是说，这波上行更像是被"被迫买回"推着走，而不是现货资金主动追价。$ETH $ZEC $BTC 里，ETH 和 ZEC 的弹性更容易被这种回补放大，因为它们的短线仓位更敏感。 我真正关注的不是涨幅，而是资金偏好变了没有。目前看，答案偏保守：美股资金停在科技龙头里避险式抱团，币圈资金则停留在高流动性标的做短打，山寨整体没有出现全面接力的迹象。这种结构下，BTC 若想延续，需要看到现货成交和稳定币流入同步跟上；否则空头挤完，动能就容易断BTC has been very frustrated recently; every time it touches above 83000, it gets pushed back, and today it’s hovering around 81000 again. What’s going on?
Data speaks: Last week, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net outflow of $593 million, with ETH alone losing $320 million from one person, marking three consecutive weeks of bleeding. The institutional buying, the core engine, is not only not stepping on the gas but is actually hitting the brakes.
Why is 83000 so critical? Because the average cost line for BTC ETF holders is around 84300. When the price approaches this area, the break-even holders flood out to sell. If you push it up, they run, so naturally, it can’t be pulled higher.
Technically, BTC is grinding back and forth between 82000-83500, with the 50-day moving average still supporting it, but the highs keep moving lower. There is strong support at 80000; if it breaks below this, it will test 79000. Resistance is at 83700, and without volume, it simply can’t break through.
My judgment is simple: without ETF inflows, this game is over. Right now, existing funds are just cutting each other in contracts; no one is taking the spot. Don’t rush to bottom-fish; wait until ETFs have two consecutive days of net inflows.
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Has AI really reached the stage of a bubble bursting?
You can look at one indicator—the Nasdaq 100 divided by the Nasdaq Composite Index.
The internet or AI booms have always been led by a few leading companies.
So around 1998 to 2000, we saw an explosive growth in NDX/IXIC, which might have come from a bubble in leading internet stocks.
But from the end of 2022 until now, the rise in NDX/IXIC is not comparable to the internet bubble phase at all.
We might have to thank Trump—sometimes imposing tariffs, sometimes government shutdowns, sometimes conflicts with Iran—these factors prevented the so-called AI bubble from inflating too much before it corrected.
So now, it might also be a correction caused by the midterm elections combined with high oil prices triggered by the US-Iran situation.#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
Latest market analysis on October 20: Data agency Kaiko reports that the largest liquidation event in the crypto market over the past year has not yet fully recovered.
Looking at core data: In Bitcoin terms, $BTC perpetual contract open interest is about 16% lower than before the crash; the USD-denominated spot market depth is even worse, down 27%. Leverage is decreasing faster than liquidity, with leverage per dollar of market depth 20% lower than before October 10.
Intelligence guy's interpretation: Leverage clearing is obvious, liquidity recovery is lagging. From a mid-term perspective, deleveraging is a healthy signal, but a true reversal requires liquidity replenishment.
$ETH $ZEC 黄金逼近4,200，BTC站上82,500，两个资产同一天走强。这种组合在过去一年里通常意味着什么？ 先说新闻。四个数字：黄金4,196.0（+0.36%，现货4,178.50），BTC 82,493.7（24小时 +1.62%、近一周 -0.28%），美元指数101.82（-0.02%），恐惧贪婪指数从53回升到59。资金侧，ETF连续三天小幅净流入，但5日仍净流出3.271亿、10日净流出7.3亿；股市侧，标普500上一交易日收于7,659.44（-1.09%）。 再看资金影响。黄金与BTC同涨，通常对应两种情况：一是流动性预期改善（美元走弱、实际利率下行），资金同时流入两类资产；二是避险需求与风险需求同时上升（通胀预期升温），两类资产都被用来对冲。区分两者的关键是美元和美股：如果美元走弱、美股上涨，更接近第一种；如果美元走强、美股下跌，更接近第二种。今天美元走平、美股上一交易日下跌，介于两者之间。 对BTC的含义：同涨本身是积极信号，说明资金没有在两类资产之间"二选一"。但黄金逼近4,200这个关键位置，如果突破，资金可能进一步向避险端集中，BTC反而可能被分流。所以接下来要观察The 60-day net position of Bitcoin whales has just flipped from -62,600 BTC to +5,230 BTC.
This is a key reversal spotted by CryptoQuant today: addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have ended their sustained net selling and have shifted back to accumulation. However, the spot side hasn't followed suit at all — the Coinbase premium index remains at -0.1416%, weekly exchange net inflow is 8,428 BTC, and short-term holders are still cutting losses near the breakeven line.
This divergence is worth noting because whales are usually the most sensitive money on-chain; they move first, but if spot buying doesn't catch up, the market lacks a leg to stand on. Meanwhile, USDT reserves on Binance have quietly increased from $790 million to $1.76 billion, ammo is building, but the trigger hasn't been pulled yet.
Currently, the observation that the market is transitioning from "seller exhaustion" to "potential bottoming" is more supported, but the confirmation of the bottom is not in the whales' hands, it's in the spot buyers'.
Next, focus on two things: whether the Coinbase premium index can turn positive, and whether the STH-SOPR can rise above 1. When these two signals appear simultaneously, the whales' accumulation can be considered truly supported by spot.
Whales have moved, spot hasn't — this time did the whales get it right first, or is it another premature bottom caught halfway up the mountain? Share your judgment in the comments. $BTC $ETH Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF funds showed a very striking divergence today.
On the same day, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $527 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone sweeping $665 million; meanwhile, the Ethereum spot ETF experienced a net outflow of $103 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of losses. The cumulative outflow in October has nearly reached $955 million, the largest monthly outflow this year.
This is not simply a case of a "weak market." More noteworthy is another set of data: Wall Street hedge funds reduced their short positions on Bitcoin by about 15% during the same period, while their calendar spread arbitrage positions surged by 48%. Shorts are withdrawing, but not turning bullish; rather, they are shifting from directional bets to playing the spread. At the same time, 90% of liquidations in the derivatives market over the past 4 hours were long positions, indicating longs are being cleaned out.
This combination currently supports one observation: funds are not leaving crypto but are structurally switching between Bitcoin and Ethereum. Institutional appetite for Bitcoin allocation is genuinely reflected on the ETF side, but selling pressure on Ethereum has yet to abate.
Going forward, the focus is on two things: when the outflow from Ethereum ETFs will turn positive in a single day, and whether the over $500 million inflow into Bitcoin ETFs is an isolated rebound or the start of continuous replenishment. Is ETH's current bleeding a rotation or a structural abandonment? Share your thoughts in the comments. $BTC $ETH Bitcoin has actually been quite resilient this week. Last week it almost dropped below 80,000, but then it started to rebound over the weekend. Counting from the low point near 58,000 at the end of June, it has already bounced back quite a bit, but it's still far from the high of over 120,000 in October last year. Many people see it as stable, but behind that is capital concentrating on it — Bitcoin's market dominance has climbed close to 60%, with some even saying it reached 60.7%. The meaning is simple: money is cautious and is holding tightly to the leader first.Continue to track the fundamentals of $PONS.
Currently, the PONS protocol has a daily trading volume of about 3 million USD, which may have already approached a short-term bottom.
The protocol currently generates about 50,000 USD in daily revenue. If the trading volume remains at this level, the expected daily burn amount could reach around 100,000 tokens.
Looking at Robinhood Chain, under the current market environment, I believe the on-chain trading volume still has the potential to maintain around 80 million USD.
The latest on-chain trading data for PONS also shows a recovery:
Trading volume: from 3 million USD to 3.7 million USD (+15.6%)
Platform fees: from 269,000 USD to 457,000 USD (+67.3%)
Protocol revenue: from 36,000 USD to 68,000 USD, now averaging about 50,000 USD daily (+88.9%)
Newly issued tokens: from 1,100 per day to 1,800 per day (+54.5%)
If this data rebound can continue, the fundamentals of PONS may be stabilizing. Referring to the 2023 $ORDI and $PEPE listings on exchanges with an 85% plunge, PONS is currently not at the bottom but is not far from it.DeepSeek teams up with Huawei to challenge Nvidia's AI computing power dominance: participating in next-generation chip design, aiming for domestic chip pre-training by year-end
Last year, DeepSeek attempted to train R2 using Huawei's Ascend chips but ultimately failed. The Financial Times revealed at the time that there were issues with chip stability, cross-card communication, and software support. Even with Huawei engineers stationed on-site to assist, DeepSeek eventually reverted to using Nvidia chips to complete the training.
More than a year later, the cooperation between the two parties has deepened further into hardware design. The Information now reports that Huawei engineers are permanently stationed at DeepSeek's office, directly incorporating the practical needs of model training into the design of the next-generation Ascend chips, including how to schedule computing tasks and how to transfer data between chips.
At the end of September this year, DeepSeek just open-sourced the Ascend version of TileLang, as well as underlying tools such as matrix computation and MoE expert communication, reducing the development work required to migrate models to domestic chips. However, getting the software to run is still far from complete pre-training. Tens of thousands of chips need to coordinate continuously for weeks; any single chip failure or data transmission delay could slow down the entire cluster. Now, both parties are starting to address these issues from the chip design stage.
Huawei plans to prioritize most of the supply of the Ascend 960DT, scheduled to be ready in the first quarter of 2027, to DeepS…Netflix is likely to slightly exceed EPS, with revenue probably close to guidance and unlikely to significantly surpass expectations. Price increases and ad-supported plans support profit margins, but weak user engagement growth means revenue expectations are already set quite low.
Tesla's delivery data is decent, and revenue is expected to meet targets, but exceeding EPS expectations is difficult, with a higher risk of falling short. The main pressure comes from continued automotive gross margin compression, while FSD and humanoid robot R&D continue to consume profits.
Meta's advertising fundamentals are solid, with a good chance of slightly exceeding revenue expectations, but EPS uncertainty is the highest. The biggest variable is AI computing capital expenditure; if investment continues to increase, profits are easily eroded, resulting in meeting revenue targets but missing profit expectations.
I believe all three companies will find it difficult to exceed expectations
#奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 Brothers, I'm optimistic about SpaceX's earnings this time
Let's first look at Q2: revenue was $7.81 billion, up about 92% year-over-year; net loss was $541 million, compared to a loss of about $1.008 billion in the same period last year; adjusted EBITDA was about $3.5 billion, up 191%
The growth is indeed strong, but positive EBITDA is a completely different matter from net profit and positive free cash flow
Starlink is an important support; last quarter, connectivity business revenue grew 66%, operating profit grew 79%, with about 12 million users, and enterprise and government customers are also contributing to growth
The biggest variable this time is the AI business; the market expects revenue to rise from about $2.56 billion last quarter to about $6.4 billion, with growth expectations already very high
The group's revenue market expectation is about $12.7 billion to $12.9 billion; I personally bet on $13.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA about $6.8 billion, adjusted EPS about $0.17
What really makes me cautious is the expenditure; the market expects capital expenditure this quarter to be about $19.6 billion, free cash flow about negative $11.6 billion; no matter how fast revenue grows, this bill must be faced
At the end of last quarter, cash and securities were about $100 billion, which looks substantial, but the IPO net fundraising was about $85.7 billion in the same period, and $25 billion in debt was issued; not all of this can be considered money earned from operations
So I bet on strong performance, but for the stock price to keep rising, we still need to see AI contracts fulfilled and payment collection improved
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 昨日的市场从形态上看走得十分崎岖，但从资金行为上看我仍然想用“有趣”来形容。美盘时段市场分歧较大，随后在82000附近横盘时，现货资金出现了大规模且持续的主动性买盘，但价格纹丝不动，核心原因是被上方大量的现货端的抛压吸收。在主动性的买盘暂停后，并伴随合约端的主动性卖盘，价格随之出现了下跌。短暂小幅波动后，价格来到81500附近继续横盘整理，更有趣的是，在此期间，现货端主动性买盘再次发起进攻，然而价格依旧纹丝不动，通过OI和资金费率我们可以较为清晰地判断出此轮上方的吸收卖盘由合约端提供且币本位主导。 也就是说在亚盘和欧盘时段接连出现了两次现货端的主动性买盘被持续强吸收，且两次吸收分别来自现货端和合约端。这不禁让我们再次重新评估当前的多空双方对当前震荡区间争夺的决心。如果我们整理一下当前的数据，很难得到某一方占据绝对优势的结论，但综合来看目前空头占据略高主导地位，抛压的确在横盘期间被囤币群体持续吸收，但当市场持续出现更多更大量的抛压时，市场可能要面临再一次的回撤去寻找新的价格接受区。且空头也面临在低位下杀的进攻性卖盘能力不足的关键问题，以及部分追空资金末期进场充当轧空燃料的危险。同样的，多表面横盘，底下暗流：$BTC 在82,000美元附近几乎走平，$ETH 报2,408美元仅微涨，弱势格局未改。但真正值得盯的不是价格，而是资金的分层——上周现货BTC与ETH ETF合计净流出约5.49亿美元，其中ETH单独失血3.2亿美元，为两者中最重。二级市场在撤，链上长线却在建仓，这种背离才是当下最该读懂的信号📉 企业端的动作与ETF流向形成鲜明对照。Strive上周以约82,803美元均价增持3.35亿美元BTC，说明一部分资产负债表玩家把当前区间视为配置窗口，而非离场理由。同一时间，BlackRock递交了“比特币保护型管理ETF”申请，意图为IBIT持仓叠加一层下行缓释。这不是对$BTC失去兴趣，而是机构想要一种更可控的持有方式——情绪转弱的同时，产品创新反而在提速，这个反差被市场低估了。 $ETH 一侧的分化更极端。SharpLink把4亿美元ETH投入Ether.fi与Lido做流动性质押，BitMine持续加仓，长线资金在链上锁定筹码；可ETF赎回仍未止步，短期价格自然被压。链上建仓与二级撤退并存，这类分歧通常需要时间消化，而不是一两根K线就能解决。 我的判断是：主A group of people are fixated on $ZEC shouting to rush to 10,000, but no one notices it has only retraced for a month. From the previous high of 1697, it pulled back 34% to 1120; the main upward wave is still ahead. Allocate at most 10% in spot, buy in 3 installments, avoid contracts, 10,000 is a narrative, not a target.
$BTC is stuck at the 83,000 level, with a sell wall pressing above; every bounce up feels like an electric shock. Lightly buy on breaks above 81,100, wait for support at 80,000 or 78,000 on dips. ETF is still flowing out, don't treat it as a reversal.
The biggest macro pressure is crude oil; CL remains high, preventing the crypto market from rising. Wait for Trump to suppress oil prices around the midterm elections for a strong market. Control your position size; survival is most important. $ETH
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ BTC has only risen 0.38% over five trading days, and the premium bulls pay every 8 hours has decreased with each of today's three settlements.
At midnight, it was still fully loaded at 1.0bp, but by the afternoon it dropped to just 0.52bp.
Since 10/11, there hasn't been a single day closing above 83,000.
Pressing the same price level for ten days turns that pressure into consensus.
On OKX, BTC's open interest contracts have remained between 3.18 billion and 3.36 billion throughout October.
The ETF talks about incremental inflows that won't come anytime soon, the fee rate talks about no fees paid on existing positions, and the position talks about no one entering the market.
All three perspectives point to the same thing: little pressure from above, and no one stepping in from below.
The most costly thing in this market is itchy hands, the second most costly is guessing the direction.
I don't think this is a bottom building; it's that no one is willing to bet.
For the rebound to continue, someone has to be willing to open new longs, not just close old ones.
Watching the fee rate is more useful than watching the K-line: the line is the result, money is the cause.
The longer it stays sideways, the more both sides seem to be waiting for the other to move first.
Entering now means profiting from volatility but losing to time decay.
I won't chase. Conditions for invalidation:
If it stands back above 83,149, open interest rises 5% in a day, and the fee rate returns to 1bp, I'll admit new money is entering;
If open interest falls below 3.18 billion, it means bulls are starting to withdraw, and it's even less worth stepping in.
The next wave at 84,000—are you waiting for new leverage or for the ETF to stop outflows?
$BTC $ETH
#ETF continuous outflows, can BTC's rebound continue?
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heardNVIDIA GTC Berlin conference is approaching, why did the whale open a large short position?
#芯片股终结八连跌，AI行情能否持续？
The NVIDIA GTC Berlin conference is about to take place. At this time, a whale opened a large short position with an average entry price of $218.078, currently holding a position valued at about $12.61 million, with an unrealized profit of about $86,600.
The main reasons I think the whale opened the short position now are:
1. Sell the news hedge: The positive expectations for GTC Berlin (Oct 20-22) and Jensen Huang's speech (21st) have been partially realized (investment in four German startups, industrial AI cooperation). After a highly anticipated event, a "sell the news" pullback is likely, so the short bet is on volatility.
2. Technical pullback: The stock price has fallen from the early October high of about $243 to around $217 (about -10%), with recent momentum cooling off, making it suitable to short before the event.
3. Macro pressure: High oil prices, inflation, and concerns about the Fed's path are pressuring tech stocks. Doubts about AI capital expenditure returns are rising, making valuations sensitive at high levels.
4. Tactical position: Short-term trading on platforms like Hyperliquid, average price $218.078, currently slightly profitable near the current price, not a long-term bearish view.
Going forward, $NVDA is likely to mainly range trade before the event.
Support: 214-215, then looking down to 210
Resistance: 220, 225, 230
Hold above 214 or rebound; if it breaks below, look toward 200;
If the speech exceeds expectations, it could surge; otherwise, it may easily pull back.$CORE $CORE The essence of core's decline is due to the large unlocking pressure released earlier. But from the perspective of value and development, it has been improving continuously, for example, now it has a mainnet, many dapps, and financial projects under development.
After listing, combined with the liquidity analysis at that time, the liquidity was one-fifteenth of the current liquidity, so the lowest price at listing was about 0.3u. Liquidity has increased 15 times, and the price has dropped 15 times from the lowest point after listing, just around 0.02. The subsequent unlocking of tokens is spread over many years, which is already a very small incremental selling pressure.
Therefore, it is judged that the bottom area of core is approximately around 0.02, with some margin of error up or down, but not very large.
The current price very much fits the characteristics of a bottom value.
From a technical analysis perspective, as long as the price does not hit a new low, it is an opportunity.
As retail investors, we can only be those who have faith or those who cut losses and run.
So, what do you choose? AVAX at $9.4, would you still dare to hold it?
Institutions are quietly accumulating while retail investors are calling it trash. RWA growth leads all chains, yet the price has fallen back to the starting point—is this the final shakeout or an escape window?
First, look at the surface: continuous good news, but the price doesn't rise.
AVAX is currently at $9.40, down 2.3%-2.7% in 24 hours, down 8% in 7 days, and weakly oscillating over 30 days. Market cap is 4.17 billion, 24-hour volume is 198 million, circulating supply is 444 million tokens. The candlestick chart shows a decline from mid-October's $10.5-$11 range, now testing the $9.39-$9.26 lows. Price is below the 20/50 moving averages, RSI is 35-43, neutral to weak, close to oversold but not extreme—all indicators are signaling one thing: support nearby, waiting for direction.
First thing: institutions are buying, but why no price rally?
Look at these news items, don’t skip:
Janus Henderson (about $500 billion AUM) became a validator and invested in the on-chain credit platform Tranched.
Dubai DIFC court has put court orders/records on Avalanche C-Chain.
Hyundai Card is piloting cross-border payments on Avalanche via Axiym, reducing time by over 96%.
Tokenized US Treasuries about $545 million, roughly 4x growth this year; RWA distributed assets about $1.73 billion; RWA growth in the last 30 days about $266 million, leading multiple chains.
Charles Schwab plans to launch AVAX trading by year-end; Goldman Sachs-related Treasury funds access Avalanche settlement network via Lynq.
In plain language:
AVAX is no longer just the "high-speed public chain" story; it is becoming the settlement layer for institutional RWA and payments.
But the harsh truth is:
Institutions are buying the settlement layer five years from now, you are buying the candlestick five days from now.
Institutions enter slowly, not responsible for pumping the price for you.
So the price is slow to react to good news—not because the narrative is false, but because macro and liquidity conditions don’t cooperate.
Second thing: fundamentals are strong, but retail doesn’t buy in
AVAX’s foundation is solid:
DeFi TVL about $580-$590 million, stablecoin market cap about $1.25 billion, active RWA AUM over $1 billion.
Daily active addresses about 40,000, daily transactions about 250,000.
Advantages include institutional-grade subnets/L1 customization, fast finality, fee burning, rapid RWA/credit/payment adoption. BlackRock BUIDL and Securitize have significant shares.
But weaknesses are obvious:
Retail DeFi activity is weaker than Solana/Base, DEX and perpetual volumes are shrinking, fees and per capita transactions are low.
In short:
Institutional narratives are sophisticated, retail doesn’t understand; retail doesn’t play, so price lacks elasticity.
AVAX doesn’t lack stories, the stories are just too advanced, short-term funds lack patience to listen.
Third thing: macro is the biggest blade, 9.3 is the litmus test
BTC is oscillating between 81,400-82,000, US September inflation rose to 3.7%, above expectations, 10-year yield about 5%, market even pricing in possible rate hike by end of October.
In a high interest rate environment, altcoins’ beta to BTC will be amplified.
No matter how good AVAX’s RWA narrative is, it can’t withstand Fed rate hike expectations.
Technically more direct:
Falling from $10.5-$11, now testing first support at $9.30-$9.40.
Secondary support at $9.00-$9.10, stronger at $8.70-$8.90.
Resistance near term $9.50-$9.60, mid $9.75-$10.00, higher $10.50-$11.00.
Funding rate near neutral, long-short ratio biased long but not extreme, open interest moderate, recent long liquidations more frequent. Weekly chart still at bottom of large range, retraced over 93% from ATH.
9.3 is not an ordinary support, it’s a litmus test:
Holding it is a golden pit; breaking it with volume is a bottomless pit.
Long-short showdown, you decide
On one side:
Janus Henderson, Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs-related funds, Hyundai Card, institutions landing real projects
RWA 30-day growth $266 million, leading all chains
Tokenized US Treasuries 4x growth this year
Testing $9.3-$9.4, RSI near oversold
On the other side:
Macro high rates + 3.7% inflation + rate hike expectations, risk assets under pressure
Weak retail DeFi, shrinking DEX/perpetual volumes
Price below moving averages, short-term bearish
Breaking $9.3 may accelerate drop to $9.0 or even $8.7
Key levels
Resistance above: $9.50-$9.60 → $9.75-$10.00 → $10.50-$11.00
Support below: $9.30-$9.40 → $9.00-$9.10 → $8.70-$8.90
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Light position to observe if $9.30 holds.
If it rebounds and stabilizes at $9.50-$9.60 and BTC stabilizes, consider short longs targeting $9.75-$10.00;
If it breaks $9.30 with volume and accelerates down, consider short positions near $9.00.
Swing traders:
Wait for below $9.00 or volume breakout above $10 to increase position.
Fundamentals support mid-to-long term logic, but don’t chase highs before macro turns.
Long-term believers:
If you believe in RWA/institutional narrative, accumulate below $9 in batches, don’t all in at once.
Target future cycles, but macro turn and BTC strength are prerequisites. Prioritize position management, avoid heavy single-coin exposure.
AVAX now is like LINK in 2023—
Everyone curses “old coin not rising,” but institutions quietly accumulate RWA and payments.
What happened later? LINK rose from 5 to 20.
AVAX is not losing price, it’s losing retail patience; institutions are buying not candlesticks, but the future settlement layer.
$BTC $ETH $AVAX Evening Viewpoint: October 20.
The gradual decline of Bitcoin has started again, is it never-ending? The two rebound attempts indicated by the red arrows above to reclaim the resistance above 82120 have both failed, and an isolated high point has appeared in the white box area. The isolated high point indicates resistance above, which is at 82120. In future trading, when you see an isolated high point and you hold long positions, you need to be cautious—either reduce your position or close it. The isolated high point is a warning that a pullback may occur; if you don't reduce or close your position, you risk losses. Remember the candlestick pattern outlined in the white box. After the isolated high point appeared, the triangle pattern was broken downward again. From the current market situation, Bitcoin is preparing to retest the support zone between 81026 and 80789. If this support zone holds, there is no major issue, and the price will consolidate and oscillate between 82120 and 80789. However, if this support zone is broken, pay attention to the previous low at 79732. If the previous low is broken and not recovered, a larger decline will follow. The volume corresponding to the candlestick indicated by the white arrow below shows selling volume, but the price has not dropped accordingly. This is a volume contraction during the decline, which suggests the drop is not very deep—this is my personal subjective view. It may fake break the 80789 support and then recover because there is a large amount of long liquidity to be cleared near 80789. This is under the assumption of no negative news; if negative news emerges, the price may not recover. Can't write more, see the comments section.The trading logic anchors on $OKB's own value capture fatigue: the platform token has long relied on "quarterly buyback and burn" as a core bullish option, but recent changes in market trading structure have seen spot trading volume disperse into emerging sectors (such as Meme, AI), and the growth rate of mainstream perpetual contract fees has slowed. The buyback benefit is gradually "buying the expectation, selling the fact," with long positions above 119.81 exhausted. Shorting down to 113.52 essentially means shorting the "valuation reversion after the buyback dividend fades." Currently at 113.52, 110 is a psychological level; if buyback data falls short of expectations or the current "good news is fully priced in" spike occurs, a break below 108 is expected; 20x leverage floating profits double, requiring moving stop profits to lock in gains. $ETH $BTC #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Netflix is reporting earnings tonight, and it looks like it will slightly beat expectations.
Q2 revenue was $12.56 billion, up 13.4% year-over-year; operating profit was $4.193 billion, up about 11%; net profit was $3.401 billion, up about 9%; split-adjusted EPS was $0.80, compared to $0.72 in the same period last year.
The profitability is strong, but the operating margin dropped from 34.1% to 33.4%, profit growth lagged behind revenue growth, operating cash flow was $1.744 billion, and free cash flow was $1.525 billion, down about 28% and 33% year-over-year respectively.
The company explained that part of this was due to increased cash taxes.
Meanwhile, it repurchased $4.7 billion in shares this quarter, about three times the free cash flow for the quarter, and the EPS growth also benefited from the reduced share count.
The company’s guidance this time is revenue of $12.86 billion, EPS of $0.82, and an operating margin of 33.2%.
Personally, I’m betting on revenue of $12.95 billion, EPS of $0.85, and an operating margin around 33.5%.
Price increases are contributing more fully, ad revenue continues to grow, and content amortization growth is expected to slow in the second half, all of which are favorable for profit realization.
But the market has long known these positives, and the full-year ad revenue target of about $3 billion only accounts for about 6% of the full-year revenue guidance.
What really determines the stock price is whether the full-year revenue target of $51 billion to $51.4 billion and the 31.5% operating margin target can be raised.
I am cautiously bullish.
#奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 BTC is sharpening its blade on the fault line, ETH is counting seconds on the line between life and death.
$BTC is stuck at 82,000; 82,500–83,000 is not an ordinary resistance, but a liquidation fault line created by short stop-losses and leveraged positions. Funding rates have dropped to the lowest since June, and open interest has shrunk to a 5-month low—the selling pressure is not being held up, but the leverage is withdrawing first. However, ETFs saw a total inflow of 527 million yesterday, IBIT alone took 665 million, while FBTC and GBTC are still bleeding. On-chain, addresses holding 1,000–10,000 coins have shifted from a net accumulation of -62,600 coins over 60 days to +5,230 coins; the whales are accumulating, but spot demand has not kept up.
$ETH is near 2,380, with 2,360 as the line between life and death; tests in the past three days have been pulled back twice. ETFs have seen outflows for the fourth consecutive day totaling 103 million, with ETHA withdrawing 95.4 million in a single day. But while whales are increasing shorts, BitMine’s holdings have surged to 6.04 million coins, and JPM Coin is directly deployed on the Ethereum mainnet. On one hand, derivatives are used to suppress prices; on the other, real money is used to accumulate chips.
The strategy is twofold. BTC: touching 82,500–83,000 will itself change micro liquidity; a close confirmation is not necessarily required, but no trades between 82,000–82,500 as position rotation odds are worst there; breaking below 81,000 means looking for the next level at 79,000. ETH: maintain the squeeze logic above 2,360, lightly test and stop loss below 2,350; only consider 2,480 if volume breaks above 2,440; if 2,360 breaks, next stops are 2,320 or even 2,200, no catching falls.The market with continuous ETF outflows is mostly a rebound driven by short covering and contract short squeezes, which is a pulse-like repair and rarely develops into a sustained strong rally. To continue the rebound, other funds must take over; relying solely on retail and large investors bottom-fishing and holding the pressure will be exhausting.
Many people easily fall into a misconception: ETF outflow = immediate sharp drop. Actually, they are not the same. ETF redemptions are Wall Street institutions reducing risk and adjusting positions, indicating a lack of incremental institutional buying; however, on-chain whales, off-exchange spot, and contract short covering can still push the price up, so it is common to see a divergence where "ETF is running out, but the coin price is rising." This divergence is the biggest hidden risk in this round: institutions exit during the rebound, and the higher the rebound, the heavier the selling pressure above.
Two scenarios to consider separately
✅ Optimistic scenario, the rebound can continue:
ETF outflows gradually narrow and stop accelerating; US Treasury yields and the US dollar weaken, providing liquidity support; on-chain whale addresses keep accumulating coins, spot exchange inventories continue to decline; contracts are not purely short squeezes, and new long funds slowly take over. In this case, the rebound can continue and move upward within a range.
❌ Pessimistic scenario, the rebound is likely to fail:
ETF outflows continue to expand with large daily redemptions; the US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen; this rally is purely driven by short liquidations, and after the liquidation, there is no spot buying to follow. This kind of rebound is a "bull trap repair," shorts have fully covered, institutions continue to sell off, and the price is very likely to fall back to test support levels again. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？