Nonfarm payrolls surprise to the downside, is there still doubt about a Fed rate cut in September? The U.S. job market suddenly poured cold water on the market. July nonfarm payroll data was far below expectations, with a decrease of 23,000 jobs instead of the anticipated increase of about 80,000. Meanwhile, May and June employment data were collectively revised down by 103,000, indicating the U.S. labor market is cooling faster. After this data release, the market's first reaction was to reprice the odds of a Fed rate cut. But it's not that simple. Although job growth has clearly slowed, the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.1%. This is due to a decline in labor force participation, with some people leaving the job market, which cannot be simply interpreted as a comprehensive deterioration in employment. In other words, U.S. employment is cooling but has not yet entered an out-of-control phase. This is also the most difficult aspect for the Fed to judge currently. If employment continues to slow and inflationary pressures decline simultaneously, the window for a September rate cut may open; but if wages and service sector prices remain high, the Fed may still hold off. After the nonfarm data release, market expectations for a September rate cut have adjusted. CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September has decreased, while some forecast markets have even raised expectations for rates to remain unchanged. Market trading logic is also changing. Previously, the focus was on whether "employment can outpace inflation"; now it has shifted to whether "employment cooling is sufficient to drive a policy shift." My view is that this nonfarm report did not directly determine the Fed's direction but changed the market's pricing rhythm. The truly critical future data is not employment alone, but whether employment and inflation move in the same direction. If CPI continues to fall while employment weakens further, the Fed may have to start signaling easing; but if inflation rebounds, rate cut expectations may cool again. For risk assets, a rate cut itself is not the only positive factor. The market is more concerned whether the Fed is cutting rates against a backdrop of economic stability or forced to pivot due to clear economic pressure. The upcoming CPI will be the most important variable before the September meeting. Whether the U.S. economy is completing a soft landing or entering a more pronounced slowdown phase may be revealed in the next round of inflation data. Prices will ultimately reflect the direction the market truly believes in. $BICO $SNDK $GRVT #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键