$BTC pulled up 30 points, and the whales drove the car away. I glanced at the on-chain data and understood who is making money this time. Santiment's data shows that in the past 60 days, Bitcoin whales (holding over 1,000 coins) have cumulatively increased their holdings by about $2.75 billion. Moreover, these increases happened in the 62,000 to 66,000 range. It's not chasing the rally; it's anticipating it. On August 2nd, there was an interesting detail: an address dormant for 9 years moved out 1,000 BTC. The price 9 years ago was $230. You really don't think this is a retail investor, do you? The holding volume also confirms this. In July, whales held 71.2%, now it's 72.4%. Don't underestimate this 1.2%; converted to BTC quantity, it's close to hundreds of thousands of coins. Clearly, this is a move to position ahead. And these guys operate very uniformly: they don't chase highs, they only accumulate. BTC hovered between 62,000 and 66,000 for a few days, and during those days they slowly accumulated. When the price was pushed to 72,000, they were already in the car; retail investors were chasing, they were watching. Trey from ZZ Capital also mentioned a data point: the sell volume of long-term holders has dropped to a few thousand BTC per day, shrinking 80% from the tens of thousands at the beginning of the year. Fewer people are selling, more are slowly accumulating, supply narrows, demand doesn't decrease, so the price naturally pushes up. What I’m most concerned about now is—when retail investors realize that the 72,000 level might be the breakout point, what will the whales do? Continue to add positions, or slowly sell off? The answer is not in the candlestick charts, but on-chain. Watch those addresses holding over 1,000 coins; when they move, the trend truly moves.

$BTC has risen above 72000. When I saw this price, I remembered myself from last October. Back then, BTC had just passed 60000. I opened a short position around 65000 for a simple reason: it had risen too much and had to correct. But it was pushed all the way up to 73000. I held for three weeks and finally closed the position when it fell back to 68000. I didn’t lose much, but it really messed with my mindset. After that experience, I learned one thing: don’t make decisions based on reasons like "it’s risen too much"; you have to look at the structure. Seeing 72000 today feels different. Two things are happening simultaneously. One is the U.S. Treasury announcing at least doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases, with the 30-year yield dropping from 5.32% to 5.18%, and the dollar weakening. The other is Trump meeting with executives from Coinbase and Gemini at the White House, urging the Senate to pass the "Clear Act," while the SEC simultaneously introduces a "safe harbor for investment contracts" regulatory framework. Kendrick from Standard Chartered put it bluntly: the Treasury’s expansion of back-end repurchases is exactly the kind of thing BTC loves. Liquidity is loosening, regulation is warming up. Both fronts advancing, shorts are being collectively liquidated. 187,000 people liquidated across the network, the largest short liquidation day in history. But I took a closer look at Bitget’s data — a significant portion of the price increase comes from concentrated short liquidations, not spot buying dominance. In other words, the rise is real, but part of it is shorts fleeing, not longs rushing in. What to watch next? Two things. Spot $ETH saw a cumulative inflow of $1 billion in the first three days of this week, and this number needs to continue. Whether the "Clear Act" can pass after the Senate reconvenes in mid-September is the real structural change. If both are confirmed, this wave is completely different in nature from last October’s, which was driven purely by sentiment. I’ve already increased my position, without adding leverage. The lesson from holding shorts last year still stands. 72000 is here. What truly decides the direction is the inflows and legislation over the next two weeks.

Long and short both profited, three consecutive accounts, the indestructible Green Hair Teacher is back again. Account at $25,582, lost $26,277 in 7 days, return rate -85.20%. Last time we saw him was at 6,387, and before that 50,000. Every time it seemed about over, every time he managed to come back with a new approach. This time he launched a combination of moves. $BTC long position, opened at 69,816, closed at 71,013, earned 3,447U. Another BTC long, opened at 69,740, closed at 71,267, earned 4,408U. $ETH long also gained over 100U. After that, reversed to open shorts, BTC short Opened at 71,884, current price 71,936, floating loss 51U. Two ETH shorts combined have a floating loss of 247U. $SNDK short is still open, SKHYNIX short is also still open. Did longs and shorts. Made profits and took losses. Still showing a loss on the books, but that’s not important. What matters is he’s still trading, still opening positions, still turning things around after losses to make the next trade. After "Genius Trader Green Hair’s Fall," he’s back. The account is still the same account, the person is still the same person. The 85% loss remains, but he’s already turned a round. Making and losing money are part of the process; being alive means there’s a next trade.

#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ When $BTC surged to 69000, the FOMC minutes were just released. 9 to 3. Three members want to raise interest rates. The exact quote from the minutes: "If inflation fails to continue declining, policy may need to tighten further." There is still room for rate hikes, but BTC peaked at 69888, just 112 dollars short of 70000. $ETH followed with an 8% rise. The macro outlook is hawkish, yet risk assets are rising. It doesn't quite add up. Looking at the market, it seems more like short covering. There were too many short positions stacked above 69000; once the price broke through, stop losses triggered, programmatic buy orders followed, and momentum pushed it close to 70000. Spot market followed a bit slower, turnover at the high was insufficient, and the price fell back near 68000. VanEck said the capitulation indicator was triggered, and the correction is nearing its end. That might be right. But this candlestick doesn't look like institutions re-entering, more like shorts were too crowded and got swept away in one wave. Next, watch two things: whether 68000 can hold sideways, and whether ETF net flows tomorrow are inflows or outflows. Holding sideways and inflows mean real buying pressure. Failing to hold and outflows mean today was just a meal served by the shorts.

Held on during this surge!!! $ETH went from 1882 to 2282, 5 ETH, 100x leverage, floating profit over 2000 U. Thought I'd hold for a few days when opening the position, but ended up holding for almost a week. There were times of floating loss and sideways movement; thought about exiting at 1900 and again at 2000. $BTC also reached 69598, touched 70k, pushed up steadily from 64000 with almost no pause. The market is pushing, ETH is following, all assets moving in the same direction. A 400-dollar increase, over 2000 U floating profit, this trade was held. Used to close trades with a few hundred U profit, then watch it keep rising, re-enter, and get stuck again. This time I didn’t move. Still don’t know when to exit. The floating profit keeps increasing, the numbers keep changing. The thought of taking profit pops up every hour. Afraid it will drop if I don’t exit, but afraid it will keep rising if I do. Haven’t decided yet. Let it run a bit more.

$ETH unrealized profit 445U. The numbers are still jumping. 1971, 1973, 1974, still pushing up. Entered more at 1882. Endured unrealized losses, survived sideways movement, finally broke out these two days. Price broke 1900 without stopping, broke 1920 without stopping, directly went up to 1979. Unrealized profit went from tens to over a hundred, then over two hundred, now 445. The higher it rises, the more hesitant I am to move. If it rises, I’m afraid it will fall back; if I move, I’m afraid it will continue rising. I know how to endure when it falls, but when there’s unrealized profit, I don’t know what to do. $BTC also went up, 65959, just a few short of 66000. Pushed up from 64000, with almost no decent pullback in between. The market is pushing, ETH is pushing, all assets are moving in the same direction. 445U unrealized profit is the largest since this position. If I exit, I’m afraid it will keep rising. If I don’t exit, I’m afraid it will fall back again. Haven’t decided yet. Just leave it for now.

$ETH has been held for several days, and it finally shows some signs. From floating loss to sideways movement, and now a floating profit close to 300 today. Entered a long position at 1882, the lowest point in between was 1874, turning floating profit into floating loss, almost cut the position then. Didn’t cut, held firm, watching it oscillate between 1880 and 1890 for several days. Every day opening the account, the numbers jump there, up a bit, down a bit, like testing your patience. Those days were really tough, more mentally draining than losing money. Then it started moving up. 1917, 1922, 1935, step by step, not fast, but steady. Floating profit went from tens to over a hundred, then over two hundred, now almost three hundred. Held this position for several days, no adding or reducing, just watching. $BTC also rose today, 64813, just a breath away from 65000. MACD golden cross opening is still expanding, looks like it can keep going. $SNDK fell from 1724 to 1645 then bounced back to 1681, can’t fall further. Previously suffered losses on this stock, shorted a few times and got stopped out, now just watching. All three assets are moving up. ETH held through, BTC is still pushing, SNDK bounced back. This position’s floating profit is almost 300. Holding on, let it run a bit more.

$SPCX is hovering around 142 The unrealized loss of 244U is still hanging in the account But I won't touch it today Closing at market price means giving away the 19U margin for free And taking on a liquidation debt Placed a limit order at 140.5 Any reduction is a gain If it doesn't reach, just keep it hanging Let it be $GPS this trade Unrealized profit of 23U The short position opened initially Was to see if I could stand on the opposite side When the altcoin was at its craziest Now it has crashed This profit is just lying in the account No closing, no adding It only tells me Controlling my hands is right Don't expect it to make money $DOS rose 14% The 15-minute MACD has already turned down This trend is too familiar Just like the day BICO and GPS pumped Same pattern Not chasing Almost 8 o'clock I've taken a heavy fall on altcoins Still hurts today But the $SPCX order is set $GPS unrealized profit is lying there Not touching $DOS Just these three tonight Done, close the software No action, no looking up Not losing tonight is winning

$ETH has an unrealized profit of 175U. Bought more at 1882, now at 1917, up 35 dollars, unrealized profit nearly doubled. It peaked at 1922 but didn't sell. Not because I didn't want to, but because I didn't dare to move. I've held this position for several days; the unrealized profit turned into a loss and then bounced back from the loss. It's been a roller coaster ride back and forth, so now I don't dare to draw conclusions easily. $SNDK has started to drop, falling from 1724 down to 1645. I used to watch it climb from 1250 all the way to 1827, shorted a few times but got stopped out every time, so I stopped touching it. Now that it’s falling, it’s none of my business. But seeing it still makes me wonder—if I had held on a bit longer back then, could I have waited for this day? $OKB bounced from 97.5 to 101.37 today, up 1.95%. A few days ago, when it dropped to 96.51, some started buying, pushing it back above 100. Now it’s stuck around 101, neither up nor down, as if waiting for something. The trading volume isn’t large, 225,000, like someone is slowly accumulating. But compared to two weeks ago, the high dropped from 109.87, and now it only bounced to 101, the momentum is average. I’ll wait for it to move a bit more before watching again. ETH’s unrealized profit is expanding, SNDK is falling, OKB is bouncing. One is making money but doesn’t dare to move, one is falling but I didn’t act, one is bouncing but I’m too lazy to watch. A bit annoyed, don’t know how to balance it.

#贝莱德重申BTC仍具配置价值 When I opened BlackRock's report, I had just finished the first sip of my coffee. The title is very restrained—"Bitcoin: Cyclical Pressure and Long-Term Value"—a typical BlackRock style: mild, data-driven, and non-sensational. But I stopped reading on page three because the core logic is summed up in one sentence: A 53% drawdown is a capital-level fluctuation, not a collapse of the underlying logic. Deleveraging of perpetual contracts, ETP capital outflows, and market doubts about microstrategy's ability to increase holdings—these are position adjustments. Investment logic reversal? The report says no. In plain terms, this means: it dropped, but nothing fundamental changed. What’s really interesting in the report isn’t the conclusion but a detail. A ten-year backtest shows that allocating 1% to 2% of the stock portion in a traditional 60/40 portfolio to $BTC improves risk-adjusted returns but also increases maximum drawdown. BlackRock presents both numbers, the good and the bad, then says, "You decide." This is something only someone from the buy-side can write—first stating the advantages, then clearly listing the worst-case scenario, and finally leaving the choice to the reader. Then I scrolled down and saw another piece of news that seemed prearranged when put together. Citibank plans to launch native crypto asset custody for institutional clients within the year, initially supporting BTC. Not $ETH, not derivatives, but real, native BTC with private keys held within the traditional banking system. Previously, institutions had only two paths to allocate BTC. Buying ETFs, which are essentially share certificates, not real BTC; or using crypto-native custodians like Coinbase, which have high compliance thresholds and are often rejected by many risk control departments. Citibank has broken down the first wall—the traditional bank custody system directly connects with existing risk control and reporting processes, so compliance doesn’t require building a new framework. BlackRock convinces CIOs, Citibank handles risk control and compliance. The combined strategy is already laid out. But how far this will go ultimately depends not on how well the report is written, but on whether Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan follow after Citibank launches. The first to enter is just testing the waters; the second and third to enter define the track. If in Q3 and Q4 we see a second traditional big bank announce follow-up, that will be a real diversion. BlackRock has set up the logic, Citibank has cleared the channel. The next thing to watch closely is: in the second half of this year, whether BTC holdings in those asset management institutions’ 13F filings actually rise. Money talks. Then we just need to watch the data.