大老师Bunny
大老师Bunny
OKX大师课讲师 宏观交易员 立志做最专业的美股Trader 推特同名
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Meta Earnings Forecast Last Call: I suggest not to participate or to participate lightly
Meta's earnings report is very complicated; 680 p looks like a hedge risk put
I think it's better to avoid Meta and not trade it
If Meta rises, it could reach around 740-750
$META
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But you can still boldly make a prediction, DYOR NFA
EPS below expectations, revenue above expectations (revenue beat, EPS miss)
But FCF might have some issues
Therefore, the trend should be a drop after the earnings release, then a rebound after the call
#Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期
Final view on TSLA earnings: As of 3:41, the earnings results remain unchanged
$TSLA bearish Earnings meet expectations or fall short, unlikely to significantly exceed expectations
Unless there is a huge beat in the earnings
After hours, due to liquidity issues, there might be a rebound touching 390, which is characteristic of TSLA stock, with huge volatility caused by retail investors, but I believe the market has already priced in some positives for TSLA (such as the Roadster merger, etc.)
The decline range might be around 370
360 and 350 are also heavily bet positions, so if it falls, it won’t be very continuous
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
The reason why TSLA's earnings report is difficult to handle is
$TSLA
There are really too many retail investors
There are also too many wealthy retail investors, so the entire data is full of deception
This is also the most difficult earnings report, possibly the only one of its kind
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
META earnings forecast
$META
Summary: Earnings beat, stock rose after earnings release
680 here looks more like a hedge position
As of 23:30
META options flow is also very resilient and confident
Sustainability still needs us to review the data at 3 o'clock and continue to adjust
Currently tentatively set as earnings beat + stock rise
#Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期
$xSPCX Earnings Forecast: Bearish, but I prefer to first grind the time value before deciding the direction. (Not AI-generated filler)
This stock increasingly looks like a crypto altcoin to me.
A large number of 0DTE gamblers gather, and the options speculation attribute is very strong, which also makes earnings forecast significantly more difficult.
Currently, I have several judgments:
1. The current price is pinned in the $148–149 range, with a large amount of Sell Put / Sell Call positions profiting today.
2. I believe this earnings report may slightly deviate from market expectations, but not enough to drive a significant stock price increase.
3. If the earnings report does not significantly exceed expectations, I do not think the stock price can directly break upwards. It is more likely to slowly decline, first grinding down the time value of the options expiring on 10/21.
4. After the short-term options expire and the position structure is readjusted, the real direction will emerge.
My final judgment: $SPCX is bearish after earnings, more inclined to first oscillate to consume time value, then look downward for direction.
This stock’s speculative nature is too strong, making forecasting clearly more difficult than typical tech stocks, but I still lean bearish.
Will verify again after earnings.
#OKX US Stock Earnings Season
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
$xNFLX Earnings forecast: bearish bias, focus on $64–65 first. (Non-AI
From current options data, the market is clearly on the defensive.
1. The current IV implies an earnings volatility range of about ±8.44%, corresponding to ±$5.89.
2. Bets on a drop to 60P are not uncommon, but I believe $58 is a level that is hard to break directly.
3. 75C and 80C reflect the market's expectation of increased volatility, and may also be influenced by the price pull of the GEX Wall. However, I think $80 is difficult to break through.
4. Considering the distribution of the GEX Wall, the market is still pricing in downside risk after earnings, with $64–65 being the key area I focus on.
My final judgment: $NFLX is bearish after earnings, with priority on $64–65.
Of course, the final outcome depends on whether the actual earnings significantly exceed expectations.
This time I continue to use options data to verify the forecast and will review after earnings.
#财报观察员：财报季回顾与展望
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Actually, I am not optimistic about this Tesla earnings report.
Looking at the options and PR, it's the same story.
I believe either EPS or revenue will miss expectations.
The Roadster launch grabbed a lot of attention, but the sustainability is poor, with a drop of over 10% from the peak.
Be cautious.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点