Macro Driving Logic 1. Expansion of U.S. Treasury Buybacks — The Core Catalyst The U.S. Treasury announced it will at least double the scale of long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion per operation to $4 billion, pushing the 30-year Treasury yield down from a 19-year high of 5.34% to about 5.19%, directly easing the holding cost pressure of BTC as a non-interest-bearing asset. Bernstein strategists pointed out: a strong catalyst for Bitcoin's rise is the U.S. Treasury's bond purchases; historically, BTC usually responds positively to liquidity expansion. 2. Trump Meets with Crypto Industry Executives Trump met with executives from Coinbase, Circle, and others, urging the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act, further boosting market expectations for regulatory clarity. 3. Fed's Dovish Stance The probability of maintaining interest rates in September has risen to 60%, strengthening the weak dollar narrative and risk appetite. $BTC $ETH $NOT #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元

Core Risk Warning 1. ADX at 87.4 hits a historical extreme: After extreme trend momentum, exhaustion is imminent; historical-level overbought signals should not be ignored 2. The most profitable phase of the short squeeze rally may be over: Nearly $2.5 billion in short positions have been cleared; the next phase requires genuine spot demand to take over rather than forced liquidations 3. Order book depth is extremely imbalanced: The buy-to-sell ratio is only 0.10, with sell orders holding an absolute advantage, indicating significant short-term resistance to upward movement 4. $80,000 is the key battleground: Once effectively broken, a large number of short stop-losses will be triggered, potentially continuing the short squeeze; if resistance is confirmed, phased profit-taking will accelerate 5. Leverage levels have risen significantly: Perpetual contract funding rates have reached multi-month highs; historically, such signals often accompany cascading liquidation risks $BTC $ETH $CORE #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？

Upper Resistance Resistance Level Position Breakthrough Significance Immediate Resistance $78,800-79,500 Today's high rebound area, short-term ceiling Key Psychological Threshold $80,000 First challenge since January 2026, breakthrough will trigger a short squeeze Strong Resistance $81,736 Bollinger Band upper band $BTC $ETH $MOVE #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？

Order book depth is extremely unbalanced The buy-sell ratio is only 0.10, with the total volume of the top 5 sell orders being 10 times that of the buy orders. This means the selling pressure on the order book is extremely heavy, and the resistance to a short-term upward surge is very strong. $BTC $ETH $CORE #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元

Technical Structure: Pullback Pressure from Extreme Overbought Conditions 4-Hour Level — ADX at an Extreme 87.4, Historically Overbought This is the most important current technical signal. The 4-hour RSI remains in an extreme overbought zone, with the ADX indicator reaching 87.4, a historical extreme, indicating that the trend momentum is extremely overextended and facing exhaustion. The 4-hour RSI(14) reading is still above 80, a typical historical overbought signal. The price is near the upper Bollinger Band, with EMA50 (around $69,000) and EMA200 (around $65,500) far below the current price, showing a significant divergence. $BTC $ETH $MOVE #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？

Risks and Challenges: Overbought and Profit Taking Despite the strong rally, short-term risks cannot be ignored: · Technical indicators overbought: The 4-hour RSI has entered the overbought zone, and the ADX indicator is as high as 87.4, indicating that trend momentum may be facing exhaustion. · Profit-taking pressure: After a rapid surge to around 80,000 USD, the market has shown clear signs of profit-taking, with a drop of more than 3% from the high today. · Marginal weakening of geopolitical risks: The US-Iran confrontation that previously boosted safe-haven sentiment is losing its marginal impact on prices after the US Treasury's positive news has been digested. $BTC $ETH $CORE #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战

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The core contradiction The upward logic still holds — the shorts have not been completely eliminated, and there are still many stop-loss orders waiting to be triggered above 80,000. The downward pressure also exists — a 26% increase in a day, 4-hour RSI at 95, all textbook signs of a major pullback ahead. 72,000-73,000 is the central zone of this short squeeze rally, and 66,000-68,000 is the moving average area. If the rise is to continue, the price needs to hold above these zones. If it breaks below 66,000-68,000, the short squeeze logic fails. The current BTC looks more like a direct confrontation between bulls and bears at the 80,000 threshold. Whoever breaks through the other's defense first will win the home ground for the next phase. $BTC $ETH $CORE #海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认

Support Levels and Consequences of Breaking Them First Support (Immediate) $76,000-76,680 Initial holding zone after a rejection at 80,000 Core Support $74,000-75,000 First target zone for a pullback if the 80,000 rejection is confirmed Strong Support $70,000-72,000 Deeper pullback target; if held, the bullish structure remains intact Structural Support $66,500-68,500 If broken, the short squeeze logic fails $BTC $ETH $MOVE #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX

Resistance Levels Position Breakthrough Significance Immediate resistance $79,600-80,000 Today's high + psychological barrier, the most critical short-term resistance Next target $82,400-83,000 Logical target zone after breaking 80K Inverse head and shoulders target $85,000-90,000 Pattern measurement target + main supply zone $80,000 is a level that has not been reclaimed since January. Even a brief stand above it is enough to trigger algorithmic buying and short stop losses. But the price has fallen nearly $4,000 from the high, indicating that the selling pressure at this level is real. $BTC $ETH $MOVE #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？