DL_W59
DL_W59
美股 加密 AI 18年交易韭菜 均不是投资建议
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Wow, I mean, why does the phone keep ringing?
Oil prices are falling accordingly #WTI breaks $96 #BZ breaks $104
Unfortunately, it hasn't completely fallen below $100 yet
Then the US stock market immediately rebounds at the open, Micron surges past $900 again, ah, it seems that buying the dip can really stand the test, the low 80s before were actually the recent lows in the past few months
#Bitcoin also surged to 83 accordingly. Macro conditions still need to be strong
If tonight's #SPCX earnings beat expectations, combined with favorable macro conditions (just don't fluctuate repeatedly), the rebound height can be anticipated
But there is still a wave of unlocks over the weekend.
Now I just hope the geopolitical situation can continue to ease, Trump, don't flip-flop. Oil prices have finally fallen back.
During the day, I said that approaching above 100 would bring a turnaround. So far, it still stands the test.
DL_W59
Oil prices, oil prices #WTI break through $100, Brent crude surges to $110
Still the Strait conflict, the stalemate in US-Iran talks caused it.
US stocks all fell in pre-market, Micron fell below $900, which is a pretty good value position, #SPCX fell below $148
It is estimated that the market may still decline at the evening open. Trump, your time is really running out.
If this week's geopolitics and oil prices do not improve, even if the earnings reports exceed expectations during the week, it won't boost the market.
However, oil prices have never stayed above $100 for a long time before. In September, #WTI surged to 106 then fell back, as news eased and funds repriced oil prices down.
Although this time is still the left side, the right side should not be too far away. During this period, having core US stocks at low positions is a pretty good value price.
Moreover, the foreseeable black swan risks are unlikely, so US stocks probably won't fall very deep.
Once the market eases and midterm elections and other events settle, US stocks will slowly come out of the bottom.
Trump, you should take action now.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
Look at the earnings forecasts of these four companies from #OKX Outcomes
I personally chose YES for all, expecting better-than-expected results.
First, let's talk about #SPCX, which will announce its earnings after the market closes tomorrow early morning.
The market revenue expectation is about $12.7 billion, but it also depends on the AI sector's cash burn and net profit situation.
My personal prediction is better-than-expected, but given the current macro market conditions and high oil prices, exceeding expectations might not be enough to drive the stock price significantly higher.
After all, the US stock pre-market price is already below $147. Plus, there is a lock-up expiration wave on 10/24, which may be reflected in Monday's stock price. Unless oil prices fall by then, it could boost the market.
If the results are not significantly better than expected, or even below expectations, combined with the lock-up wave, the price might approach the $130-135 range seen in late August, which is near the issue price.
Overall, there will be selling pressure on Saturday. Don't expect a big rebound in price.
Back to trading, shorting now feels a bit like seeking victory in danger.
Maybe wait for a dip into the bottom range before getting in.
And for friends who haven't participated yet, join quickly, there are many rewards. #OKX美股财报季
Oil prices, oil prices #WTI break through $100, Brent crude surges to $110
Still the Strait conflict, the stalemate in US-Iran talks caused it.
US stocks all fell in pre-market, Micron fell below $900, which is a pretty good value position, #SPCX fell below $148
It is estimated that the market may still decline at the evening open. Trump, your time is really running out.
If this week's geopolitics and oil prices do not improve, even if the earnings reports exceed expectations during the week, it won't boost the market.
However, oil prices have never stayed above $100 for a long time before. In September, #WTI surged to 106 then fell back, as news eased and funds repriced oil prices down.
Although this time is still the left side, the right side should not be too far away. During this period, having core US stocks at low positions is a pretty good value price.
Moreover, the foreseeable black swan risks are unlikely, so US stocks probably won't fall very deep.
Once the market eases and midterm elections and other events settle, US stocks will slowly come out of the bottom.
Trump, you should take action now.
DL_W59
Talking about #Bitcoin, it hasn't fallen below the 80 mark recently, so it can be said that it hasn't returned to the bottom consolidation range of 585-81 since the big drop in early February.
But recently, it has been fluctuating and exchanging hands in the 80-84 range, without a big panic sell-off or strong positive stimulus driving it up. However, the 80 support level has indeed been tested several times.
The main focus is still on the upcoming US-Iran geopolitical situation and the midterm elections, which directly affect oil prices and inflation, influencing interest rate changes.
We'll see if it breaks below the 80 integer mark to the 70s range for chip exchange.
But once a positive expectation is captured, Bitcoin might see a rebound.
I don't know if it will definitely break below the 80 integer mark, but a one-sided rise certainly won't happen that quickly.
For trading, either swing trading or holding for the mid-to-long term is fine; the 70s and 80s ranges both have cost-effectiveness, depending on each trader's preference.
Talking about #Bitcoin, it hasn't fallen below the 80 mark recently, so it can be said that it hasn't returned to the bottom consolidation range of 585-81 since the big drop in early February.
But recently, it has been fluctuating and exchanging hands in the 80-84 range, without a big panic sell-off or strong positive stimulus driving it up. However, the 80 support level has indeed been tested several times.
The main focus is still on the upcoming US-Iran geopolitical situation and the midterm elections, which directly affect oil prices and inflation, influencing interest rate changes.
We'll see if it breaks below the 80 integer mark to the 70s range for chip exchange.
But once a positive expectation is captured, Bitcoin might see a rebound.
I don't know if it will definitely break below the 80 integer mark, but a one-sided rise certainly won't happen that quickly.
For trading, either swing trading or holding for the mid-to-long term is fine; the 70s and 80s ranges both have cost-effectiveness, depending on each trader's preference.
DL_W59
The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher, but Micron, SPCX, and Nvidia are still fluctuating near their lows.
Let's talk about the U.S. stock market and #Bitcoin. With oil prices high and inflation pressure still elevated, although a rate hike in October is unlikely, what about December? The game is still uncertain.
Against this backdrop, it remains difficult for the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin to achieve a strong one-sided upward trend.
For example, SPCX has fallen below $150. Although earnings reports are coming soon, the macro environment is unclear, and with a wave of unlocking ahead, there may still be good opportunities.
Similarly, Micron has dropped about 20 points compared to $1,100 in September. Although it is still above the lows since July, it is fluctuating around $800 to $900, a position with good cost-effectiveness.
Moreover, as long as there are no black swan events expected, the core heavyweight stocks in the U.S. market generally won't fall too deeply, whether in spot or futures (my strategy is to short as little as possible), so there are good opportunities.
Although earnings reports will come one after another, as mentioned earlier, the macro environment is still unclear and rate hike expectations remain. Even if earnings exceed expectations, there will still be some pressure limiting price boosts.
The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher, but Micron, SPCX, and Nvidia are still fluctuating near their lows.
Let's talk about the U.S. stock market and #Bitcoin. With oil prices high and inflation pressure still elevated, although a rate hike in October is unlikely, what about December? The game is still uncertain.
Against this backdrop, it remains difficult for the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin to achieve a strong one-sided upward trend.
For example, SPCX has fallen below $150. Although earnings reports are coming soon, the macro environment is unclear, and with a wave of unlocking ahead, there may still be good opportunities.
Similarly, Micron has dropped about 20 points compared to $1,100 in September. Although it is still above the lows since July, it is fluctuating around $800 to $900, a position with good cost-effectiveness.
Moreover, as long as there are no black swan events expected, the core heavyweight stocks in the U.S. market generally won't fall too deeply, whether in spot or futures (my strategy is to short as little as possible), so there are good opportunities.
Although earnings reports will come one after another, as mentioned earlier, the macro environment is still unclear and rate hike expectations remain. Even if earnings exceed expectations, there will still be some pressure limiting price boosts.
PCE data basically meets expectations and actually has little impact, while the market is focusing on current oil prices and Powell's speech on Friday #Bitcoin #WTI
Powell's speech will indicate whether inflation is hawkish or dovish, and inflation depends on oil prices.
Currently, Iran says it has reached an agreement with Oman on the distribution of Strait revenues, and there is an expectation of navigation through the Strait, but the market is waiting for the US stance. If unclear, the market will worry, just like now, so the main focus is on Trump's attitude.
In the evening, oil prices began to rebound, now around 82.5. Before this post, CME's expectation for a September rate hike is above 40%, having increased. US stock indices opened lower, and #Bitcoin briefly fell below $785; the $785 level is very critical.
Before Friday, oil prices must not continue to decline below the 80-82 range. Powell's speech will definitely not be positive; it will be hawkish, and rate hike expectations will further increase. Under this background, both US stocks and Bitcoin cannot remain unaffected. Let alone expect Bitcoin to reverse into a bull run.
If oil prices continue to decline around 80, it can dispel the September rate hike expectations; Powell may not be very hawkish, but the possibility of dovishness is low. The market impact should be manageable. Then we look at August inflation data (released in September).
In summary, it still depends on Trump's attitude, which is the trend of oil prices.
In any case, personally, I think it is a bit difficult for Bitcoin to have a good bull rebound now. The best scenario is oscillation between 77-81.
Once rate hike expectations rise, market sentiment will start to seek safety again.
DYOR
Can we touch the 80s? #Bitcoin
Today it surged to 786 then dropped, previously mentioned resistance at 785, currently not holding steady
Attentive friends can see on #Tradingview that trading volume dropped after entering US time last night.
Could this be a signal of weakening momentum? Not necessarily
Previously, for the price to continue rising, trading volume needed to maintain high momentum. If it weakens, the price outlook won't be good, as marked on the chart
Weekend low liquidity, market makers on holiday. So next week's weekdays are very important, especially when entering the US time zone, whether trading volume can continue to maintain high momentum
Next week is also the second week after the rally; if momentum continues, the 80s might be expected, watching if 785-82 can hold
If momentum weakens, it may go down to find support and enter a consolidation range of 725-75, to see if it can hold steady
If 725 support fails, it may continue to drop, which would really be a bear market scenario.
During this period, macro factors and oil price trends will also affect the market
Regarding the bull rebound, next week is a critical verification moment. No long or short operations yesterday, today's price is even less suitable to enter
DYOR
Scrolling through Twitter, everyone is shouting about a bull rebound, #Bitcoin is close to around 73
Personal conclusion: the bull rebound is still early, it's still a bottom-range consolidation
Since the US stock market opened, the three major indices have all been falling. Oil prices are still surging, and the interest rate hike expectations remain around 36%
As a liquidity-sensitive asset, how could Bitcoin possibly reverse and have a bull rebound under such circumstances?
Unless the macro environment improves, at least the interest rate hike expectations drop below 10%, and the US stock market turns positive
Bitcoin's price needs to quickly break through and hold above the 76-82 range to be considered a true bull rebound and reversal.
Right now, it still belongs to the bottom consolidation range of 60-82 since the big drop in February.
Be cautious of short-term holders taking profits, after all, it has risen about 15 points from 63.
Also, be wary of macro news; once interest rate hike expectations rise again, the price could fall back as it rose.
DYOR
