wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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Another big influencer is out saying storage has hit the bottom. Bank of America says valuations have reached the cycle bottom, and Wood Sister says South Korean semiconductors have entered a buy zone. It sounds lively, but Hynix still closed down 2% today, and Micron and SanDisk followed downwards.
I've been trading for many years, and I have one experience: the more bloodletting the drop causes and the louder the bottom-fishing voices get, the more it means no one really dares to catch the fall. When it truly hits bottom, no one talks, volume dries up, and no one cares; it’s not a screen full of the words "buy zone" flooding everywhere.
I heavily bet on the storage leg in this AI deleveraging short, without reducing a single share. It’s not stubbornness on my part; the price votes for me every day. Shouting doesn’t matter, the closing price does.
Do you trust the big influencers’ "buy zone," or do you trust the K-line that keeps closing in the red?
Let's talk about the most frustrating thing during a rebound: holding a short position.
Today the market rebounded sharply, and the floating profit on my short position gave back a bit. Immediately, that voice in my head popped up—"Maybe I should close it first, then buy back when it drops again." This is the classic death trap for retail traders: the direction is clearly right, but they get shaken off by a single rebound, then watch helplessly as it continues down according to their original plan.
Card players understand this. When you hold a strong hand and your opponent bluffs occasionally, you don't fold just because they furrowed their brow. The real time to fold is when the logic changes, not when the price wobbles a bit.
My rule for trend trades is simple: if the invalidation level isn't broken, rebounds are just noise. Only by holding through the rebounds can you earn the full gains of the trend.
Early this morning SpaceX launched again, sending the Bandwagon-5 rideshare mission into orbit from Florida aboard Falcon 9. Launches are coming fast and furious; this company's pace is truly impressive.
But I want to remind those watching pre-IPO stocks: a good company and a good price are two different things. The market is currently extremely enthusiastic about star companies that haven't gone public yet, but when lock-up periods expire and shares flood the market, things can get ugly. New stock shares are unlocked in batches, and the highest sentiment often coincides with the smallest float and the easiest price to push. When the lock-up gates open one by one, the story remains the same, but the people holding the bags have changed.
Don't mistake a rocket's thrust for a stock price's momentum.
Overnight, $BTC pulled back above 82,000, $ETH led the rise with just over 2,400, up nearly 2%, and $SOL also rebounded, with the whole screen starting to shout "the bottom is in."
I'll pour cold water: this is a typical low-volume rebound. The trading volume hasn't picked up, and the funding rate is still slightly positive — meaning the longs are still paying the shorts, shouting bottom while obediently paying the toll. Several daily moving averages are still pressing down on the price, and the bearish alignment hasn't been broken at all.
A rebound is not a reversal. A brief surge on low volume is the easiest way to trick people into selling or chasing the rally. I'm staying put here. What about you? Do you trust the chart, or the mouth shouting "bottom"?
The whole screen is buzzing with one piece of good news: Micron is holding a technical seminar the day after tomorrow, discussing HBM, DRAM, NAND, and Nvidia is also working on customized HBM. The narrative sounds great—AI needs memory, storage is selling shovels, just blindly buy.
But I don't buy into this. For this short, I heavily bet on storage and have held on tight. The reasoning is simple: when a sector's valuation has already priced in the "explosive demand over the next three years," any good news from a seminar is just handing the microphone to the next buyer. What really matters isn't how loud the demand story is told, but whether the price acknowledges it. Today, as soon as the US market opened, storage still led the decline.
Stories are stories, positions are positions. $BTC
On Monday, the Nasdaq jumped up shouting "the bottom is in," but on Tuesday it fell back right at the open, with the Nasdaq 100 down 1%, and Nebius down 6%, hitting a new low since July. These AI computing power names had no strength left after just one day of rebound.
On the market side, $BTC is still grinding around 82,000, with a clean daily bearish alignment unchanged; $ETH is just above 2,400, still the weakest leg in the entire line.
The easiest trap in trading is mistaking a one-day rebound for a trend reversal. This is called results-oriented thinking—changing your entire strategy based on the outcome of a single hand, which sooner or later will cost you your chips. The structure hasn't broken, and I haven't moved a single short position this round. How about you, chasing the rebound or waiting for the structure?
A piece of news that few people have deeply considered: The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has directly banned the federal government from purchasing products from DeepSeek and has also demanded their complete removal from systems.
The screen is full of people treating AI as the only certainty for the next decade, but look, this track is splitting from a "technology story" into a "geopolitical battlefield," with one side pouring money into expansion and the other mutually blacklisting and blocking. Mixing so many political variables into certainty and still valuing it based on "linear perpetual growth"—isn't that a bit naive?
AI will not disappear, but the optimistic assumptions used to price it are being pierced one by one by reality.
Don't be scared by the panic over oil prices while watching the coins. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen just dropped a rarely noticed statement: Since August this year, no oil loading operations have been detected at Iran's Khark Island oil facilities.
The screen is still shouting "Hormuz is closed, war premium, oil prices will skyrocket," but the real loading data is right here. Despite the verbal blockade of the strait, ships either load or don't load as they please. The biggest taboo in trading is taking a slogan as the fundamental basis. Slogans cost nothing; data is what counts.
Do you trust politicians shouting war cries, or do you trust whether the oil tankers are actually loading cargo?
As the US stock market just opened, the biggest decliners are none other than storage stocks: SK Hynix down 3%, Micron and SanDisk also dropping. Just yesterday, the screen was full of calls saying "storage has bottomed, now is the buying zone," but today that leg is already weakening.
My current AI deleveraging short position heavily targets storage, with one logic: cryptocurrencies are sentiment assets, but storage chips are the real hard cash tied to AI capital expenditures. Sentiment can rebound in a day, but capex bills can't be dodged.
One day of gains doesn't mean a trend reversal; how many times have big influencers called the bottom? Do you trust the market or those voices more?
