Brothers are all very scarce

The longer I trade, the more I believe in one saying: first think about surviving, then think about winning. In these kinds of +8% overnight short squeezes, the first to get out are often not those who guessed the direction wrong, but those with positions too heavy who can't hold until their view plays out. You can be bearish on $BTC, but if you max out leverage and set your stop loss too tight, a single spike will wash you out—what good is being right about the direction then? I'd rather have a small position with a wide stop loss to ensure I survive until the catalyst arrives. Position management isn't about being timid; it's about giving yourself the chance to be there for the payoff.

Explain a trading principle using Texas Hold'em poker. You have a hand AK, very strong, right? But if your position is bad and there are heavy bets ahead, often the correct play is to fold. It's the same in trading: even if the direction is right (for example, I know this is a short squeeze and it will eventually reverse), if the current entry position, timing, and odds are not favorable, you should hold your hand and wait for a better position to enter. Retail traders lose money not because of bad cards, but because good cards are played in bad positions. For $BTC, this point is a bad position for shorts—patience has its odds.

Next week's Jackson Hole is the real judge of this market move. This kind of pulse rally is essentially the restlessness before a major event, with both bulls and bears betting on the central bank's words. My experience is: don't fully load your position or use full leverage to guess the direction before a big event; save your ammunition and emotions for the moment the cards are revealed. Trading is like playing cards—the most costly mistake isn't misreading the cards, but going all-in before all the information is in. No matter how strong $BTC rallies, I prefer to wait for that decisive candle to close. What signal do you think it will give this time?

Seeing $BTC surge to 74K overnight, a bunch of people messaged me asking, "Is it time to heavily short?" To be blunt: overbought conditions have never been a reason to short; momentum exhaustion is. Prices can stay overbought and keep rising for three days during a short squeeze phase. If you add shorts against the trend halfway up, averaging your price higher, you're just feeding bullets to the market. My low-frequency, large-stake strategy prefers to miss the first half and wait until it can't push higher, forms a lower high, and volume divergence appears before taking action. I'm not worried about direction; timing is what matters. Are you the type to rush to catch the top, or the type who can wait?

This wave of Bitcoin's $BTC main force, combined with the US Treasury breaking through 43 trillion dollars, caused this explosive short squeeze rally, now pushing the narrative of the US dollar going to zero. Very good, the real bears have just entered the market. 😀😀😀😋😋😋

Shorting the big sister here is likely to make money, hehe, waited a long time and finally can start shorting 😁 $BTC, the rebound was a bit higher than expected.

Let's talk from the heart. After so many years of trading, the days when my account grew the fastest were often not when I was aggressively in and out of positions, but rather when I was holding no position, calmly watching others get harvested inside. In a market like tonight's $BTC short squeeze, with both bulls and bears fully charged emotionally, it's easiest to feel the urge "I must do something"—but the market doesn't pay the diligent, it pays the right. Not moving is also a position; resisting the itch to act is itself an edge. The real challenge is never finding opportunities, but controlling yourself when no opportunity comes. Today, do you really have an opportunity, or are you just itching to act?