The BTC surge on August 19th was indeed quite strong. It went straight from 64,000 to 69,500, rising 5,500 overnight. I took a look and found an interesting factor behind it: the U.S. Treasury increased the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases. The amount isn’t actually large, only $4 billion. But the market is more focused on this signal: long-term bond yields are too high, so someone stepped in to support them. The 30-year Treasury yield dropped from about 5.34% to 5.18%, and then gold, BTC, and other risk assets all moved up together. Another very important reason for this BTC surge is that there were simply too many shorts before. As the price rose, shorts started liquidating, and liquidations forced buying back, pushing the price higher, which caused more short squeezes. It just kept climbing like that. I think the short squeeze component in this move is very significant. Next, we need to watch one thing: With most shorts cleared out, is there still real buying demand to continue? If yes, then 69,500 might just be a midpoint. If not, the faster this rise, the quicker the potential pullback afterward. So I still say: Don’t rush to call a bull market yet; let’s see if the market can stand on its own. What do you think? Is this the start of a new rally, or just a pure short squeeze? Let’s discuss in the comments. #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落

Long position near $UNI 3.35, recording my entry logic I chose to go long on this $UNI not mainly because it has reversed, but because I am working on a 4-hour level structural recovery after an oversell. Previously, UNI dropped sharply from around 4.2 to 3.164. After reaching near 3.16, the price did not continue to make new lows but started to consolidate sideways, indicating support emerging below. What I pay more attention to is the following changes: First, support formed near 3.16. After continuous decline without breaking the bottom, the price began to gradually rise, and bearish momentum clearly weakened. Second, EMA10 and EMA20 started to converge. On the chart, these two moving averages had been trending down but are now flattening, and the price has moved back above them. Third, today's 4-hour candlestick broke upward out of the consolidation range. This is a key confirmation for me. So my entry logic is: Sharp drop → bottoming near 3.16 → bottom consolidation → moving averages flatten → price moves back above EMA10/20 → breakout of consolidation range → attempt to go long. However, I would not define this trade as a "major UNI reversal." The larger downtrend has not fully changed yet, so I prefer to treat this as an oversold rebound plus structural repair. I will focus on the 3.4 to 3.5 area above; if it can break out with volume and hold, there is a chance to open up more upside space. Conversely, if it falls back near 3.30 and loses the consolidation range, this breakout might be false, and I will consider exiting. Going long is not because I am certain it will rise, but because the risk-reward ratio here is worth trying. This is also the trading style I prefer now: Don’t chase the absolute bottom; wait for the market structure to appear, then enter. I will start with a small position on this $UNI to observe. What do you think? Is UNI truly starting a reversal this time, or is it just a simple oversold rebound? 👇

$HYPE I won't catch the falling knife for now during this drop; I'll start with a light long position first. Just now, $HYPE surged near 60.47 and then quickly fell back, with short-term selling pressure clearly increasing. I'm paying attention to several data points: CVD is dropping rapidly, indicating a clear increase in active selling; OI is falling simultaneously, with more long positions being liquidated, which suggests this drop is more like a long stop-loss and liquidation stampede rather than a large influx of new shorts. Additionally, Funding has reached -0.01008%. This means shorts are actually paying now. So I won't chase shorts just because I see a drop. My approach is: Strong downtrend → don't catch the falling knife → wait for key support to show a stop-fall signal. Currently, I'm focusing on the $56–57 area. If the price really drops and shows a clear stop-fall, a lower shadow, or a 15-minute/1-hour structure turning strong again here, then I'll consider trying to go long. My plan roughly is: 📍Observation zone: 56–57 🎯First target: 58.4–58.5 🎯Second target: 60.47 🚀If it breaks above 60.47 again, then look at 62–64 But if 56–57 is broken down with heavy volume, I won't catch it hard. No stop-fall signal, no trade. The most common trading mistakes are: Buying the dip just because it fell and seems cheap, Chasing the rally because it seems like it will keep going up. But good trading often means: Waiting for the price to reach your zone, then waiting for the market to tell you if you can enter. If it keeps falling without meeting my entry conditions— Then I won't trade. Missing out is not scary; opening random positions is. What do you think? Will $HYPE stop falling around 56–57 this time, or will it continue to crash down? Let's discuss in the comments.

8.19｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts My approach today is quite clear: mainly short on rallies, no chasing orders before the minutes are released. $BTC surged to 65000 then pulled back again, currently oscillating around 64500. I'm paying close attention to one detail: the funding rate has risen to a nearly 20-month high, but the price hasn't continued upward. Leverage longs are getting more crowded, yet the price isn't keeping up. I won't chase longs on this divergence; instead, I need to be wary of a potential long squeeze. $ETH is currently around 1915, basically still following BTC, with no particularly obvious independent movement for now. So this time, I'm focusing less on the technicals themselves and more on tonight's FOMC meeting minutes. The July meeting itself was a 9-3 vote, with 3 votes leaning towards a rate hike. If the minutes continue to release hawkish signals, market expectations for a rate cut may cool further, and BTC could retest 62000. If the minutes lean dovish, there might be a short-term emotional recovery, but until the macro environment shows clear improvement, I still interpret it as a rebound within a range, not a new major uptrend. My trading plan: BTC: Try shorting in batches between 65000-65600, first target 63800, break below that look for 63000, further down to 62000. ETH: Try shorting in batches between 1930-1950, first target 1880, break below that look for 1840, 1800. Of course, plans are plans. If BTC breaks and holds above 65600 with volume, I will abandon the short bias and not fight the market. Keep positions light before the minutes come out. Trading is not about guessing the news, but preparing in advance: If it rises, what do I do; if it falls, what do I do; if I'm wrong, where do I admit it. What do you think after tonight's minutes, will BTC first go to 62000 or break through 65600 directly? Let's discuss in the comments.

$XAU Gold Short Position Review For this gold short position, my opening logic mainly focused on three points: First, high resistance 4 hours ago. Gold had been rising steadily from around 4000, reaching a high of 4452.3. After reaching this level, it did not break through directly; instead, it showed a clear pullback. Then the price rebounded again to test the previous high but still failed to hold above it. So in my view, the area around 4450 has formed a relatively clear resistance zone. After the second failed attempt to push higher, I started considering a short. Second, EMA10 and EMA20 began to weaken. As seen on the chart, after gold surged, EMA10 and EMA20 gradually converged, then the price directly broke below both moving averages. This is a fairly obvious signal for the short term: Previously it was a pullback within an uptrend, Now it shows high-level consolidation + moving average breakdown + weak rebound. Therefore, I did not choose to guess a top directly around 4450 but waited until the structure started to weaken before entering. Third, high-level consolidation appeared on the 4-hour chart. After 4452, the price did not continue to make new highs but oscillated repeatedly between 4300 and 4400. In this situation, what I pay more attention to is: The upper side cannot break through, and the lower side begins to show signs of breaking down. So my thought process is: Resistance confirmed near 4450 → second failed surge → break below EMA10/20 → rebound fails to reclaim moving averages → attempt to short. Currently, the price has come down to around 4349, and this short position is temporarily profitable. However, I also want to remind myself: The long-term gold cycle has not completely turned bearish. Yesterday’s gold decline was indeed influenced by rising US Treasury yields suppressing non-interest-bearing assets, with spot gold once falling to about $4365. So I would not define this trade as "gold topping out." What I am doing is: A short-term pullback at a high resistance level. If later it reclaims 4398–4400 or even breaks through 4452 again, the bearish logic needs to be reassessed. The most important thing in trading is: Not that I am bearish on gold, but that I found a position where I can be wrong and still control losses. This is also the trading style I increasingly prefer: First find the position, then find the direction, and finally consider opening a position. What do you think? Is gold topping out at a high and starting a pullback this time, or will it continue to push to 4450 after a 4-hour level shakeout? Let’s discuss in the comments.

The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.29%. What does this really mean for BTC? On August 18, the 30-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.29%, hitting a new high since 2007. I think this figure is worth paying attention to. Because for the market, the biggest issue isn’t just that "Treasury yields have risen," but rather: The risk-free rate is becoming increasingly attractive. When even the 30-year Treasury can offer over 5% yield, why would capital take the risk to buy BTC, stocks, or other high-risk assets? So in the short term, rising Treasury yields do put pressure on BTC. Higher funding costs, lower risk appetite, and naturally, liquidity will be affected. But I actually think this situation shouldn’t be viewed only in the short term. Because if the US long-term government bond yields stay above 5%, it actually reflects a bigger issue: The market is demanding that the US government pay increasingly higher prices for its debt. In other words: Previously, people were willing to lend money to the US at very low interest rates. Now the market is saying: "You can borrow, but you have to pay more interest." This is what I’m truly focused on. So I won’t simply interpret it as: US Treasury at 5.29% → negative for BTC. I prefer to see it in two stages: Short term: negative for BTC. High yields attract capital into bonds, putting pressure on risk assets. Long term: it could actually become a logical catalyst for BTC. Because more and more capital will start to think: Besides the dollar and US Treasuries, where else can I put my assets? Gold is one answer. BTC might be another. So seeing gold rise and BTC underperform now, I wouldn’t directly conclude that BTC’s "digital gold" narrative has failed. It might just be that: Gold moves first, BTC is still waiting for its capital cycle. Of course, the biggest variable here is time. If Treasury yields continue to rise, BTC might remain under pressure in the short term. So I won’t ignore short-term risks just because I’m "bullish on BTC long term." Macro logic can be viewed over years, but trading must be done trade by trade. This is a feeling I’ve been having more deeply lately: Investing looks at the endgame, trading looks at the present. What do you think after the 30-year US Treasury yield crossed 5%? Is this a long-term negative for BTC, or the starting point for the next "digital gold" narrative? Let’s discuss in the comments. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高

Short position near $HYPE 59.1, recording my opening logic The short is not simply because I think the price has risen too much, but because I see the 15-minute level consistently pressured around 59.5–59.9. Previously, the price surged to 59.898 then quickly fell back, and subsequent rebounds failed to break the previous high again, indicating that selling pressure above is still quite obvious. At the same time, EMA10 and EMA20 have started to converge, and the price has returned below the moving averages, so the short-term trend is no longer expanding upward but instead entering a consolidation phase. So my thinking is quite simple: Resistance near previous high 59.9 → multiple rebounds fail to break through → moving averages converge → short-term momentum weakens → attempt to short. If later the volume picks up and the price stands above 59.9–60 dollars, it means the bearish judgment is invalid, and I will admit my mistake. If it continues downward, first watch around 58.5, then the previous 58-dollar area. What I want from this trade is more a pullback from the upper boundary of the consolidation range, not betting on a direct big drop. Trading, after all, the most important thing is this: I can be wrong, but I must know where I am wrong. What do you all think? Will $HYPE continue to surge to 60, or will it pull back again near 59.9? Let's discuss in the comments.👇 #HYPE #TradingReview #Crypto

$PUMP｜0.002911 Short position, recording my opening logic I shorted $PUMP around 0.002911. Why short? Not because I think PUMP can't rise anymore, but because I'm paying more attention to the resistance around 0.003000. From the 4-hour chart, PUMP previously rose steadily from around 0.0022, reaching a high of 0.003001. After the first push to this level, there was a clear pullback. Later, the price tested near 0.003 again but still failed to hold above effectively. Both attempts to break the previous high failed, which makes this level quite interesting to me. Additionally, the price has now fallen back below EMA10 and EMA20, indicating short-term structure weakening. So my thought process is: Resistance near 0.003000 → second test fails → breaks below moving averages → attempt to short. I'm not aiming for a "direct crash" of PUMP with this trade, but rather a pullback from the previous high resistance. If the price continues downward, I'll focus on around 0.00270, and below that is the previous consolidation zone. However, if the price breaks above 0.003001 with volume and holds, then my short logic basically becomes invalid. Break the previous high, admit the mistake. The most important thing in trading is not: "I think it will definitely fall." But rather: I know why I'm shorting and under what conditions I prove myself wrong. For now, I'll hold this position and keep observing. What do you think about $PUMP this time: A double top near 0.003, or will it gather strength and break through? Let's discuss in the comments.👇

$SNDK I'll short first out of respect.🫡 Not for any other reason, mainly because I heard a sentence from Teacher Tony. As for why short? I don't know. Where to set the stop loss? Also don't know. What if liquidation happens? Then just post the liquidation screenshot to add some entertainment for everyone.😂 The only dilemma now: Where is the most soulful place to set the stop loss? Set it at the previous high: too timid. Set it at the resistance level: a bit conservative. No stop loss: Teacher, I've enlightened. Direct liquidation: sun.🫡 Everyone help me choose one. Where do you think the stop loss should be set for this trade?

$BTC｜Trading Thoughts for the Morning of August 18 Recently, I am still leaning bullish on this BTC rebound for now. On the hourly chart, MA7, MA20, and MA60 have formed a bullish alignment, and the price has been running near the short-term moving averages, indicating that short-term funds are still biased toward the bulls. But I won’t chase the price just because the moving averages are bullish. I prefer to wait for a pullback. Currently, there is some resistance around 64500. If the price can break above and hold 64500 with volume, there is a high probability of further upward space in the short term. So my approach is simple: BTC: Consider light long positions if it pulls back and stabilizes near 64000, with a target initially at 65500. If it rallies straight up without giving a pullback opportunity, I won’t chase. Because for me, trading is not about catching every move but about entering at positions where risk is controllable. The support area at 62685 is important this time. If it breaks below again and the rebound is weak, the bullish logic needs to be reassessed. The idea for $ETH is similar: Watch for pullback opportunities near 1890, target 1950. Of course, the biggest feature of the market now is— the direction is just starting to become clear, but it’s not yet a time to be blindly optimistic. So this time I will still: Wait for the right position, not chase the price; watch the structure, not listen to emotions. If I’m wrong, stop loss and admit the mistake. If I’m right, let the profits run. What do you think? Can BTC really hold above 64500 this time and challenge 65500 or even higher? Let’s discuss in the comments.👇