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TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
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仅从这两天美伊双方对于炸弹之母的论战来看,美军大概是有采用巨型炸弹攻击伊朗核设施取得一个说的过去的战绩的计划的,去年伊朗局势缓解就是以轰炸福尔多核设施美国宣布取胜结束的。 理论上来说,中期选举之后,川普想要从伊朗尽快脱身是需要拿到一些节点胜利给选民交代的,在冲摊无望的情况下,轰炸核设施基本是最优解。 不过这个炸弹之母(GBU-43/B)是空爆弹,更多的是取得一个舆论传播效应吧,真的要打核设施依然要用去年那种GBU-57 钻地弹。 所以密切关注吧,真炸了也许就默契终结了。但前提依然是给够伊朗好处,比如过海峡的服务费。毕竟现在不是哈梅内伊时代了,当时老哈一个人说停就能停。但现在伊朗也已经尝到了强硬的甜头了,内部利益也分化了,同样的招式再次管用肯定要付出更大代价。$CL
TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
The market finally started to rebound in this morning's session, mainly because oil prices began to fall back after breaking the hundred-dollar mark. Although geopolitical issues have not yet eased market value, the previous oil price fluctuation range of 70-90 has effectively shifted upward by about 10 dollars to the 80-100 range. After all, the Strait of Hormuz accounts for only 20% of global supply and is not completely cut off. Price rises or falls are reasonable; it all depends on what capital wants to do. If this is the bottom range, combined with a few sharp moves around big companies' earnings reports this week, the market should be able to firmly stabilize. After that, there are the FOMC and midterm elections. Once all uncertainties pass and the market has fallen enough, a rebound will naturally follow. $CL #

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