On October 17, the entire network saw $710 million liquidated in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $508 million, and 217,395 people wiped out. The largest single liquidation was on Hyperliquid, a $20.42 million BTC long position instantly wiped to zero.
The options market is even more straightforward: the probability of BTC reaching $100,000 before Christmas dropped from 12.5% to 9.7%. The founder of Derive.xyz said, "Long-term bullish bets are rapidly retreating, while short-term hedging demand surges."
ETFs are also running. On October 15 alone, there was a net outflow of $262 million, totaling $151 million this week, after $681 million outflow the previous week.
AI is also fracturing. CoreWeave's 2031 bond yield soared to 16%, its stock price dropped 15.5% in one day, halving from its yearly high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for eight consecutive days, the longest streak since 2008. Oil prices are at $110, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.097%.
All of this is real. No avoidance.
But one thing needs to be distinguished: what's falling is "price risk," not "structural risk."
What is the main driver of this downturn? Leverage liquidation + tightening financing conditions + geopolitical oil price-driven inflation. It's not a problem with the Bitcoin network, not a systemic redemption wave in ETFs, nor a collapse in on-chain settlements.
Glassnode's data points in the same direction: during the October 15 drop, sellers once again "surrendered," and every wave of loss-driven selling happened near local bottoms in August and September.
The word "surrender" is heavy, but it describes positions, not assets.
$700 million liquidated means leverage was wiped out, not Bitcoin. The 9.7% probability prices in macro frictions over the next two months, not the next two years.
Now for the most contrasting part.
On October 16, the market's most panicked day, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan issued a memo titled "Choose Your Own Adventure."
He broke down the future of AI and interest rates into three paths and explored each:
Path one: AI brings super abundance. Productivity explodes, costs in intellectual-intensive industries collapse, value shifts to non-reproducible assets—land, masterpieces, gold, Bitcoin. Bitcoin wins.
Path two: AI bubble bursts. Data center defaults, credit chains break, Bitcoin initially falls with risk assets. But AI construction is the largest infrastructure investment in US history, with a "near 100%" bailout probability. Rate cuts, balance sheet expansion, monetary supply surge, then Bitcoin rebounds sharply.
Path three: 3% growth, 4% interest rates, muddling through. No drama, AI debt slowly repaid, soft landing. Bitcoin wins through ETF inflows, advisor adoption, corporate and sovereign allocations—"winning by exiting."
Hougan's conclusion is one sentence: among all economic paths, almost every one ultimately leads to Bitcoin.
On the same day, while CoreWeave plunged 15.5%, Cathie Wood's ARK bought 188,665 shares worth about $12.4 million. Amid credit panic, she was buying equity.
So the real question isn't "where is the bottom."
The real question is: which is closer to the reality of the next two years—the 9.7% pricing or the judgment that "all paths lead to Bitcoin?"
9.7% is a short-term two-month ticket. It honestly reflects inflation, rate hikes, war, AI credit cracks—all real in the next sixty days.
But no one can price Bitcoin for two years. ETF outflows of $151 million are real, but Bitcoin's supply cap hasn't increased by a single coin. CoreWeave's 16% bond yield is real, but the direction of US debt accumulation hasn't changed. The drop to 9.7% probability is real, but panic itself is evidence that pessimism is fully priced in.
The 9.7% Christmas price reflects macro frictions over the next two months. But no one can price Bitcoin for the next two years. During panic, extending the time horizon is often the only free alpha.
$BTC$XAU$BZ#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
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