ZEC at $1325, do you dare to chase?
ETF redemptions reached $93.56 million in one week, contract open interest barely increased in a day, yet the price was forcibly pulled from 1271 back to 1325—just now, the 4-hour RSI is only 39, still in the bearish zone. Is this wave the final dip ending the shakeout, or a fake rebound before a panic sell-off?
Let's look at the surface first: there was a rebound, but it was very weak.
ZEC dropped from 1698 on September 26 to 1271 on October 3, losing 25%. Today it climbed back from 1271 to 1325, seemingly stabilizing. The 24-hour low was 1284, high 1341, with decent volume, but—contract open interest is 640 million, almost unchanged in a day, 8-hour funding rate +0.01%, longs are paying, but no new shorts are being squeezed out.
Price rises, positions don’t increase—this is a rebound, not a trend.
First point: The narrative hasn’t broken, but the money is leaving.
Grayscale’s Zcash spot ETF had net redemptions of $93.56 million last week. This product, launched in August, was a key incremental driver for the rise from a few hundred dollars to 1700.
Now? The honeymoon is over.
You might say: “The fundamentals haven’t changed, the shielded pool accounts for 29%, market cap is 22.7 billion and still in the top ten, NU7 is still progressing.”
Yes, fundamentals haven’t changed. But short-term price moves are driven by money, not stories.
THORChain’s ZEC pool went live on October 2, sounds bullish? But native swaps aren’t fully open yet, and the pool depth is shallow. This is a channel, not a buy order. Don’t mistake the pipeline for water.
Second point: BTC is fine but not helping.
BTC is between 84900-85000, still in the upper half of the 83000-87200 range. After employment data, rate hike expectations eased, but the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded, and risk appetite hasn’t reopened.
Next hard data: inflation on October 14.
ZEC’s current pullback isn’t led by BTC—it’s because it rose too much and profit-taking is happening. But if BTC breaks below 83100 effectively, privacy coins’ relative strength will also be suppressed. Don’t think you’re independent; you just haven’t been hit yet.
Third point: Technicals tell a harsh truth.
Daily: RSI returned to 50, cooling off from overbought. Price remains above the 50-day moving average (~1080), and the 50-day is above the 200-day—bullish structure intact.
4-hour: The downtrend from 1698 hasn’t been broken. Today’s rebound stopped near 1340, 4-hour RSI about 39, still a bearish retracement.
Key levels:
Near-term resistance: 1332-1341 (pivot upper edge + today’s high), 1370, then 1449
Near-term support: 1284-1281, 1271 (this wave’s low), 1244
Only if 1244 breaks do we look at 1170/1130
1325 is stuck just above the pivot, neither up nor down, the most uncomfortable spot.
Daily close above 1370 means the pullback is over, target 1449.
Close below 1271 means repair failed, next support 1244.
Bull vs. bear showdown, judge for yourself:
On one side:
Weekly bulls intact, 50-day above 200-day
Shielded pool 29%, fundamentals intact
NU7 accelerating block production + community security funding
Still stronger than BTC for a month
On the other side:
ETF redemptions of $93.56 million in a week, incremental funds withdrawing
Contract open interest not increasing, no new short squeezes
4-hour still in downtrend, RSI 39
Heavy trapped positions above 1370
Trading strategy:
1. Do not chase longs at 1325.
This is the rebound’s midpoint, above are 1341/1370. Wait for 4-hour close to hold above 1370 with volume before targeting 1449, stop loss below 1320. Chasing 1325 is giving the market makers your stop loss.
2. Buy on dips.
Prefer to wait for 1284-1271 to show a long lower shadow indicating a stop, then scale in with stop loss below 1255. First target 1340, then 1370 if held. This risk-reward is much better than chasing 1325.
3. Short only on resistance.
If the rebound to 1366-1370 shows volume with upper wick and 4-hour can’t reclaim, short lightly with stop loss above 1390, target 1284/1271. Don’t guess tops around 1325; daily RSI is neutral.
4. Invalid conditions.
Daily close below 1271 without recovery means exit longs. If ETF redemptions continue heavily, breakout above 1370 loses weight. If THORChain native swaps open with volume, it’s a bonus, not a reason to chase highs.
If you chase at 1700, fear at 1300, and itch to buy at 1325—you’re not trading, you’re paying tuition to the market makers.
Keep single trade risk within 1% of your account. Daily volatility often exceeds $100, don’t use positions you can’t handle.
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