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Mulight沐光
Mulight沐光
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翻三星和SK海力士的新闻看到一组数字,有点坐不住了。 三星和SK集团刚跟美国科技巨头签了$9500亿的芯片长期供货协议,签到2030年。NVIDIA、博通、谷歌全部锁定了韩国内存产能。 我对存储芯片的印象还停在周期股阶段。但SK海力士65%的收入现在来自HBM高带宽内存这一个品类,上个月刚在纳斯达克IPO融了$265亿,创了半导体行业纪录。 这背后的信号很直接:美国科技巨头按照未来5到10年的AI算力增长曲线在提前锁定产能,短期波动不影响这个级别的决策。 HBM这条线的结构性变化才刚刚开始。MU美光、SK海力士ADR、三星——存储赛道值得重新定价。 以上不构成投资建议,判断请基于自己的研究。
Mulight沐光
Mulight沐光
TSMC's May revenue rose 30% year-on-year, but demand for AI chips hasn't slowed at all. What does this number mean for the entire industry chain: TSMC's advanced 3nm/5nm process capacity is fully loaded, with AI/HPC orders as the main driving force. Upstream delivery times for ASML's EUV lithography machines and Applied Materials' deposition equipment are still being extended. Downstream suppliers like NVIDIA's H200/B200, AMD's MI300X, and Broadcom's custom ASICs are all placing additional orders. There are also new signals on the demand side: Alphabet just issued $8 billion in bonds specifically for building AI data centers. Ray Dalio publicly warned about the AI bubble while heavily investing in six AI stocks, honestly saying he didn't want to hold positions. Oracle released its earnings report tonight, with cloud revenue growth as the next test of AI demand. Whether TSMC's 30% growth rate can be sustained also depends on whether downstream customers will reduce capital expenditures due to valuation pressure. Core industry chain targets: upstream equipment for TSMC/ASML/AMAT/LRCX, NVDA/AMD/AVGO downstream chips, MSFT/GOOGL/ORCL terminal cloud factories.

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