TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
宏观 × 美股 × Crypto 交易员 拆解美联储、战争与全球资金流 提前捕捉 美股 / 原油 / BTC / 金银 / 风险资产拐点 和读者一起看金融风暴 🌪 推特同名TraderS | 缺德道人，账号TraderS18
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Those who haven't gotten in yet, don't be like yesterday—first slapping your thigh, then chasing the rally, and finally getting stuck. This kind of peace talk news has been released countless times this year; the usual pattern is to release the news first, then go back and forth, and only after several twists and turns will it be confirmed.
During this process, there will still be opportunities to get in. Then the peace agreement will probably last briefly for a few weeks to one or two months at most. After that, we wait for the next round of tension to flare up, oil prices to rise again, and the stock market to fall again, repeating the cycle over and over. $CL
TraderS | 缺德道人
Look at what we said before the market opened: the current short-term market is undoubtedly all about oil prices. Once the situation eases and oil prices drop, risk assets will sharply rebound $CL
Look at what we said before the market opened: the current short-term market is undoubtedly all about oil prices. Once the situation eases and oil prices drop, risk assets will sharply rebound $CL
SPCX TSLA Earnings Preview
After talking about Bitcoin, let's talk about the US stock market. This week continues the Q3 earnings season, with particular attention on Elon Musk's companies SpaceX $SPCX and $TSLA Tesla. Since last week, after he launched the flying car attracting a lot of market attention, the stock price effect still seems poor, and this week's earnings report is the real moment of truth.
After market close on Tuesday, 10/20, SpaceX will release its earnings.
After market close on Wednesday, 10/21, Tesla will release its earnings.
On Thursday, 10/22, up to 1.3 billion SpaceX shares will be unlocked.
On Saturday, 10/24, about 328.4 million shares will expire, with the first trading day being next Monday, 10/26.
Based on past experience, Musk often manages market value intentionally or unintentionally (within SEC compliance) by releasing news about cool high-tech, new infrastructure, and other positive factors when stock performance is poor. Obviously, the current stock performance of SPCX and TSLA is not good, so his flying car and stock donations are more likely a hedging tactic to attract traffic.
Looking at the actual earnings, both companies roughly meet expectations. SPCX only profits from Starlink, with market revenue expectations around $12.89 billion. This time, it will be important to see if the AI segment's spending and revenue have improved.
If earnings beat expectations, the stock will likely rebound back above 150+ to leave room for subsequent selling pressure. If earnings miss expectations combined with massive unlocking, SPCX will probably fall back to the 13X range in the short term, near the IPO price.
Also, the two earnings reports are released back-to-back, so...
This pre-market rebound today is indeed quite strong, especially with BTC spiking above 83k. It really doesn't follow the US stock market's decline; once the US stocks rebound, the strong get stronger. Although I can't be sure why BTC is so resilient this round, I roughly guess it's because the real interest rate expectations have become relatively fixed.
Although we are still in a rate-hiking cycle with about two more hikes totaling 50BP expected, the market consensus is that this rate-hiking cycle is short. So the negative impact is not as strong as anticipated.
Another possibility is that although AI, especially storage, has dropped sharply, this round is different from the one in July. The market is not in widespread panic, or you could say most retail investors have already deleveraged last time. This time prices have dropped a lot but the pain is much less.
So this round of decline might actually be a rotation, fundamentally different from the broad deleveraging in July.
Even from the perspective of long-term interest rates, easing has actually already happened on the Treasury side. The Treasury's quasi "twist operation" and Waller's hawkish rhetoric are at odds. This brings us back to the US version of YCC logic: the Fed hikes nominal short-term rates, the Treasury manages duration and liquidity, and the net effect is favorable for BTC.
In short, since BTC has proven its strength, our mindset should shift from the previous bear market, and our operations should change from shorting on rallies to buying on dips. $BTC #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？
Judging solely from the recent two-day debate between the US and Iran over the Mother of All Bombs, it seems the US military has a plan to use a massive bomb to attack Iran's nuclear facilities to claim a plausible victory. Last year, the easing of the situation in Iran was marked by the US announcing victory after bombing the Fordow nuclear facility.
Theoretically, after the midterm elections, Trump would need some key victories to explain to voters his quick exit from Iran. With no hope of a breakthrough, bombing nuclear facilities is basically the optimal solution.
However, this Mother of All Bombs (GBU-43/B) is an airburst bomb, mainly intended to create a media impact. If they really want to hit nuclear facilities, they would still use last year's GBU-57 bunker buster.
So, keep a close watch. If it really gets bombed, the tacit understanding might end. But the premise remains that Iran must be given enough benefits, such as service fees for passing through the Strait. After all, this is no longer the Khamenei era, when old Khamenei could stop things just by saying so. Now Iran has tasted the benefits of toughness, internal interests have also fragmented, and the same tactics working again would definitely come at a greater cost. $CL
TraderS | 缺德道人
The market finally started to rebound in this morning's session, mainly because oil prices began to fall back after breaking the hundred-dollar mark. Although geopolitical issues have not yet eased market value, the previous oil price fluctuation range of 70-90 has effectively shifted upward by about 10 dollars to the 80-100 range. After all, the Strait of Hormuz accounts for only 20% of global supply and is not completely cut off. Price rises or falls are reasonable; it all depends on what capital wants to do.
If this is the bottom range, combined with a few sharp moves around big companies' earnings reports this week, the market should be able to firmly stabilize. After that, there are the FOMC and midterm elections. Once all uncertainties pass and the market has fallen enough, a rebound will naturally follow. $CL #
The market finally started to rebound in this morning's session, mainly because oil prices began to fall back after breaking the hundred-dollar mark. Although geopolitical issues have not yet eased market value, the previous oil price fluctuation range of 70-90 has effectively shifted upward by about 10 dollars to the 80-100 range. After all, the Strait of Hormuz accounts for only 20% of global supply and is not completely cut off. Price rises or falls are reasonable; it all depends on what capital wants to do.
If this is the bottom range, combined with a few sharp moves around big companies' earnings reports this week, the market should be able to firmly stabilize. After that, there are the FOMC and midterm elections. Once all uncertainties pass and the market has fallen enough, a rebound will naturally follow. $CL #
WTI crude oil has just broken through the $100 mark again, mainly due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Recently, oil tankers have been repeatedly attacked, for example:
Indian Shipping Minister Sonowal stated that on October 16, MT ST 3 was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, and all 15 Indian crew members on board were safe and unharmed.
The good news is that VLCC freight rates from the Gulf of Oman to China have fallen about 7.7% from their peak, and about 400 commercial ships have passed through the strait in the past seven days. During the same period, the US military assisted Gulf partners in transporting over 100 million barrels of crude oil.
Overall, crude oil is unlikely to spike sharply but will continue to advance steadily. Against the backdrop of unresolved high oil prices, a decline in inflation is nothing but wishful thinking, and a major bull market in US stocks is naturally out of the question.
Currently, we are still waiting for the easing signals after bad news no longer causes risk markets to fall. Once negative news stops causing declines, even a little positive news will trigger a rebound. At present, the lifting of sanctions on Russia has yet to show any effect. $CL
The viral flying flip video of Tesla's newly released Roadster model is indeed stunning. At first glance, one might think it's an AI video, and this launch event scheduled before Tesla's Q3 earnings report on October 21 shows careful planning.
First, about this car: it matches Musk's usual pattern of delays, being released 9 years late, and it won't be available on the market until next year. Meanwhile, Tesla's existing models are aging and becoming outdated, urgently needing rapid product updates to maintain sales.
This car can't actually fly; instead, it is equipped with jet technology derived from SpaceX's Falcon rockets. Essentially, Musk has further integrated the technologies of his companies Tesla and SpaceX. Both sides have mature technologies, but combining them is very cool.
There are also rumors that Tesla's earnings call might reveal news of a merger between the two companies. However, as we analyzed during the Q2 earnings, a merger initiated when SPCX is priced high and TSLA is priced low would be optimal for Musk, but the current stock prices do not support this, so further adjustments on both sides may follow.
This new product launch won't affect the already closed Q3 earnings, but if the earnings report looks weak, the positive sentiment from this product launch could provide strong support and buffer against declines.
One more thing: this technology seems pretty useless in daily use. This is not a truly practical flying car. If it ejects randomly and falls, it could injure pedestrians. Perhaps the only use case is like a fighter jet's ejection seat? Ejecting to avoid danger when the brake pedal of the car behind breaks and can't stop?
PPI data has been released. Overall annual rate 6.3%, overall monthly rate 1.3%, core annual rate 5%, core monthly rate 0.7%. It's another disastrous data, even worse than yesterday's CPI. The sooner it dies, the sooner it will be reborn, so hurry up and drop. I'm in a hurry #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
TraderS | 缺德道人
Tonight's PPI overall annual rate is expected to be 5.3%, overall monthly rate 0.5%, core annual rate 4.4%, core monthly rate 0.3%.
Combined with last night's CPI data, it depends on whether today's announced values exceed expectations, especially the overall annual rate and core monthly rate.
If tonight's data continues to be hawkish, then we can expect a swift and decisive market move, a quick death and rebirth scenario.
If tonight's data unexpectedly leans dovish, then there will be some grinding; it might rebound a bit, but if there is no significant positive catalyst in between, the market will likely continue to decline next week, which will be even more painful.
But overall, the probability of continued decline is high, since the timing, pattern, and sentiment are not yet in place. Let's push through another week. These days, eat, drink, and rest as needed. By the way, it would have been great if it opened at 2049 this week; going home and only entering the garbage time now really feels like a waste of life.
Tonight's PPI overall annual rate is expected to be 5.3%, overall monthly rate 0.5%, core annual rate 4.4%, core monthly rate 0.3%.
Combined with last night's CPI data, it depends on whether today's announced values exceed expectations, especially the overall annual rate and core monthly rate.
If tonight's data continues to be hawkish, then we can expect a swift and decisive market move, a quick death and rebirth scenario.
If tonight's data unexpectedly leans dovish, then there will be some grinding; it might rebound a bit, but if there is no significant positive catalyst in between, the market will likely continue to decline next week, which will be even more painful.
But overall, the probability of continued decline is high, since the timing, pattern, and sentiment are not yet in place. Let's push through another week. These days, eat, drink, and rest as needed. By the way, it would have been great if it opened at 2049 this week; going home and only entering the garbage time now really feels like a waste of life.
