無名先生
無名先生
主攻領域｜#Airdrops • 金融分析師、信息搬運工！
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🚨 Still waiting for $BTC to drop 75%? Not necessarily this time!
My view is that Bitcoin's phase bottom may have already formed months ago, with a maximum drawdown of about 54%.
Stop mechanically applying the scripts of past bull and bear cycles.
As market structure, funding sources, and participants continue to change, future drawdowns may also differ from history.
Of course, this doesn't mean BTC won't drop again; the key is to watch the actual market trend.
As for me? Just a passerby who happened to short at 123K and long at 62K. 🤷♂️
⚠️ Sudden flash crash over the weekend, what exactly happened in the market?
Just now, $BTC and $ETH fell simultaneously, and AI-related stock perpetual contracts plummeted about 5% within seconds, then quickly rebounded.
No obvious news, and the US stock market is still closed, so this kind of cross-market synchronous fluctuation is indeed worth paying attention to.
Several possible directions:
Concentrated liquidation of leveraged positions
Price deviation caused by insufficient liquidity
Risk transmission between different markets
But at present, we cannot conclude that a stock market crash will happen on Monday based solely on this fluctuation.
What is really worth observing is: whether the rebound can be sustained, whether funding rates are abnormal, and how risk assets will be priced after the US market opens.
Regarding this spike in $BTC, do you think it is clearing leverage or a prelude to a bigger fluctuation?
⚠️ Don't rush to bottom-fish! $BTC may still have deeper corrections.
The $87,000 resistance is just the first warning. If the bears continue to dominate, the next levels to watch are:
🎯 81K → 78K → 72K → 67K → 53K
My main focus is on the $72,000 level.
If this level breaks, market sentiment could deteriorate rapidly. At that point, those shouting "buy the dip" today might hesitate to enter due to panic.
The truly worthwhile opportunities often appear when the market is at its most pessimistic.
Of course, $53,000 is just a potential scenario, not a guaranteed target. When trading $BTC, don't just listen to predictions; also manage your position sizing and risk control well.
Where do you think BTC will fall to this round?
The most interesting thing about the trading market is that it doesn't necessarily operate according to your logic.
If all trends were reasonable and everyone could understand them, where would the profits come from?
The bitcoin:native market is never just about fundamentals; it also includes sentiment, expectations, and capital battles.
I am still bullish, continuing to hold long positions with a target of 126K.
No plans to close positions for now.📈
Of course, even the most confident judgments require risk management; the market will never guarantee that any target will definitely be achieved.
🚨 Whale Alert reported two large transfers of over 100 million dollars in #BTC within two hours, but they are actually the same batch of coins.
14:39: 1,250 coins transferred from Binance to Kraken.
16:47: 1,262 coins transferred from Kraken to an "unknown wallet."
I cross-checked the on-chain records: those 1,250 coins were consolidated by Kraken at 15:06 along with another 68 deposits, totaling 1,328.51 coins, and then the entire amount was transferred out at 16:43, which triggered the second alert.
The so-called "unknown wallet" was only activated today at 15:06, and by 17:06 it had processed 24 batches and 180 user withdrawals, with change all sent back to itself, making it more like Kraken's own hot wallet for withdrawals.
Those 1,262 coins themselves have not moved at all until now.
So don't rush to shout that a whale is withdrawing coins to hoard, nor to call for a dump. When you see an alert, first check if it's the same batch of coins. $BTC is currently around 82,700 USD.
無名先生
🚨 MARA's rhythm of sending coins to exchanges has changed.
Lookonchain reported at 12:51: MARA-related wallet sent 1,000 #BTC to Binance and Gate in 5 days.
I reviewed all on-chain records of this address (marked by Arkham) for this year: from April to September, each transfer was up to 250 coins; starting from 9/23, each transfer is exactly 500 coins, 4 transfers in 4 weeks.
In just 19 days of October, 1,500 coins have been transferred out, about 124 million USD, more than any full month this year (860 coins in September).
Today’s transfer at 08:52 was split into two transfers of 250 coins each at 09:10 to continue moving.
Transferring into exchanges does not mean they have been sold yet, but mining companies are accelerating their shipments, so $BTC bulls should keep a close watch.
🥈 The story of silver might be more than just a simple rise in precious metals.
As silver prices approach a key resistance level, the market should focus more on one question: If supply cannot grow quickly while industrial demand continues to consume inventories, how will prices react in the future?
The uniqueness of silver lies in the fact that it is not only an investment asset but also an industrial raw material.
Solar energy, electrical equipment, and the electronics industry all require silver, while mining supply is limited by the byproduct extraction model.
This could create a dilemma:
Prices can rise rapidly, but supply may not be able to keep up quickly.
Of course, tight supply and demand do not mean prices will only rise without falling. Failed breakouts, economic slowdowns, and declining investment demand could all trigger sharp corrections.
I will focus on three signals:
Whether silver can effectively break through the key resistance level.
Whether inventories and supply-demand gaps continue to worsen.
Whether investment demand truly keeps pace with industrial demand.
The long-term logic of silver is worth paying attention to, but the more favored an asset is, the more one needs to consider volatility and risk in advance.
Do you think silver will break out and rise next, or will it first experience a deep correction? $BTC 👀
🚨 Indonesian stock market faces a sharp sell-off!
Reportedly, the Indonesian stock market fell another 5% today, wiping out about $88 billion in market value.
The continuous decline is intensifying market panic, and investor confidence is also being tested.
But whether this is a short-term liquidity shock or the beginning of deeper market risks being exposed still requires further observation.
When a market keeps falling sharply, what really matters is: is capital accelerating its exit from emerging markets?
If global risk appetite continues to decline, risk assets like $BTC could also be affected.
The more chaotic the market, the more important it is to clearly see the risks rather than be driven by panic.
🚀 $BTC has once again confirmed closing above the 50-week moving average on the weekly chart!
This is definitely a signal worth paying attention to.📈
Sustaining above this key moving average on the weekly level indicates that the market structure is improving, and bulls have a chance to further take control.
If this strength continues, market sentiment may keep warming up.
Good signs are emerging, but the key is whether it can maintain this position going forward.
Do you think this could be the start of a new upward trend?🔥
🚨 Only 17 minutes after the news from JPMorgan came out, someone was already issuing "JPM Coin" on Ethereum.
Bloomberg reported around 15:07 that JPM Coin (JPMD) would launch on Ethereum; by 15:24, three blocks consecutively produced three tokens with the same name, each deployed from different addresses.
Two of the issuers each bought 0.201 ETH at the opening and sold out within 2 minutes: one got back 0.241 ETH, the other only 0.194 ETH, actually taking a loss.
This is not the first time. I counted on-chain, and there are already 42 tokens named JPMD / JPM Coin on Ethereum. On June 17, 2025 alone, 10 appeared, and the address holding the most tokens only has 139.
JPM Coin is only available to institution clients who pass verification; those tokens anyone can buy on DEXs have nothing to do with JPMorgan.
#ETH $ETH
🥈 The story of silver might be more than just a simple rise in precious metals.
As silver prices approach a key resistance level, the market should focus more on one question: If supply cannot grow quickly while industrial demand continues to consume inventories, how will prices react in the future?
The uniqueness of silver lies in the fact that it is not only an investment asset but also an industrial raw material.
Solar energy, electrical equipment, and the electronics industry all require silver, while mining supply is limited by the byproduct extraction model.
This could create a dilemma:
Prices can rise rapidly, but supply may not be able to keep up quickly.
Of course, tight supply and demand do not mean prices will only rise without falling. Failed breakouts, economic slowdowns, and declining investment demand could all trigger sharp corrections.
I will focus on three signals:
Whether silver can effectively break through the key resistance level.
Whether inventories and supply-demand gaps continue to worsen.
Whether investment demand truly keeps pace with industrial demand.
The long-term logic of silver is worth paying attention to, but the more favored an asset is, the more one needs to consider volatility and risk in advance.
Do you think silver will break out and rise next, or will it first experience a deep correction? $BTC 👀
